ISSN 2239-2122 16 European Security and the Future of Transatlantic Relations, edited by Riccardo Alcaro and Erik Jones, 2011 N. 2 Democracy in the EU after the Lisbon Treaty, edited by Raffaello Matarazzo, 2011 N. 3 The Challenges of State Sustainability in the Mediterranean, edited by Silvia Colombo and Nathalie Tocci, 2011 N. 4 Re-thinking Western Policies in Light of the Arab Uprisings, edited by Riccardo Alcaro and Miguel Haubrich-Seco, 2012 N. 5 The transformation of the armed forces: the Forza NEC program, edited by Michele Nones and Alessandro Marrone, 2012 N. 6 Strengthening the Africa-EU Partnership on Peace and Security, edited by Nicoletta Pirozzi, 2012 N. 7 Stop Mass Atrocities, edited by Luis Peral and Nicoletta Pirozzi, 2013 N. 8 The Uneasy Balance, edited by Riccardo Alcaro and Andrea Dessì, 2013 N. 9 Global Turkey in Europe, Edited by Senem Aydın-Düzgit, Anne Duncker, Daniela Huber, E. Fuat Keyman and Nathalie Tocci, 2013 N. 10 Italy and Saudi Arabia confronting the challenges of the XXI century, edited by Silvia Colombo, 2013 N. 11 The Italian Civil Security System, Federica Di Camillo, Alessandro Marrone, Stefano Silvestri, Paola Tessari, Alessandro R. Ungaro, 2014 N. 12 Transatlantic Security from the Sahel to the Horn of Africa, edited by Riccardo Alcaro and Nicoletta Pirozzi, 2014 N. 13 Global Turkey in Europe II, edited by Senem Aydın-Düzgit, Daniela Huber, Meltem Müftüler-Baç, E. Fuat Keyman, Jan Tasci and Nathalie Tocci, 2014 N. 14 Bridging the Gulf: EU - GCC Relations at a Crossroads, edited by Silvia Colombo, 2014 N. 15 Imagining Europe, edited by Nathalie Tocci, 2014 N. 16 The Role of Italian Fighter Aircraft in Crisis Management Operations: Trends and Needs, Vincenzo Camporini, Tommaso De Zan, Alessandro Marrone, Michele Nones, Alessandro R. Ungaro, 2014 Italian combat aircraft have played an increasing important role in the international missions in which Italy has participated in the post-Cold War era – from the First Gulf War to Libya, including Bosnia-Herzegovina, Kosovo and Afghanistan. This participation has been a significant tool of Italy's defense policy, and therefore of its foreign policy towards crisis areas relevant to its national interests (from the Western Balkans to the Mediterranean), as well as towards its most important allies within NATO and the EU. This IAI publication analyses the role of these military capabilities in recent operations and their prospects for the future. In fact, a number of trends can be inferred from the operational experience in ten international missions, in which Italy deployed more than 100 combat aircraft in more than 13,000 sorties, clocking up 36,000 flight hours. These trends are considered in light of the recent developments in the doctrine of Air Power, as well as possible future scenarios for the use of combat aircraft in crisis theaters. The aim of the analysis is to understand the needs of the Italian Armed Forces – the Air Force and Navy in particular – which will have to replace a substantial portion of their current combat fleets in the near future due to the gradual obsolescence of the aircraft in service – an operational necessity linked to the inevitable political decisions regarding the options available in the field of military procurement for maintaining the capabilities required so far for international missions. In this context, the study looks into the acquisition of F-35 aircraft, also considering the industrial aspects of a multinational program that will produce more than 3,000 units for over 12 countries. Vincenzo Camporini is Vice President of IAI Tommaso De Zan was intern in the Security and Defence Programme at IAI Alessandro Marrone is Researcher in the Security and Defence Programme at IAI Michele Nones is Head of the Security and Defence Programme at IAI Alessandro R. Ungaro is Research Assistant in the Security and Defence Programme at IAI 12.40 EURO 9788868123291_148_FM_2 SEGUICI SUI SOCIAL NETWORK THE ROLE OF ITALIAN FIGHTER AIRCRAFT IN CRISIS MANAGEMENT OPERATIONS: TRENDS AND NEEDS V. Camporini, T. De Zan, A. Marrone, M. Nones, A.R. Ungaro N. 1 IAI RESEARCH PAPERS IAI Research Papers THE ROLE OF ITALIAN FIGHTER AIRCRAFT IN CRISIS MANAGEMENT OPERATIONS: TRENDS AND NEEDS Vincenzo Camporini, Tommaso De Zan, Alessandro Marrone, Michele Nones, Alessandro R. Ungaro The IAI Research Papers are brief monographs written by one or more authors (IAI or external experts) on current problems of international politics and international relations. The aim is to promote greater and more up to date knowledge of emerging issues and trends and help prompt public debate. A non-profit organization, IAI was founded in 1965 by Altiero Spinelli, its first director. The Institute aims to promote understanding of international politics through research, promotion of political ideas and strategies, dissemination of knowledge and education in the field of foreign policy. IAI main research sectors are: European institutions and policies; Italian foreign policy; trends in the global economy and internationalisation processes in Italy; the Mediterranean and the Middle East; defence economy and policy; and transatlantic relations. IAI Research Papers The Role of Italian Fighter Aircraft in Crisis Management Operations: Trends and Needs Vincenzo Camporini, Tommaso De Zan, Alessandro Marrone, Michele Nones, Alessandro R. Ungaro Edizioni Nuova Cultura SeriesEditor NatalinoRonzitti _________________________ First published in March 2014 by Edizioni Nuova Cultura For Istituto Affari Internazionali (IAI) Via Angelo Brunetti 9 - I-00186 Roma www.iai.it Copyright©2014EdizioniNuovaCultura‐Roma ISBN:9788868123291 Cover:byFrancescaMinnocci GraphicComposition:byLucaMozzicarelli Theunauthorizedreproductionofthisbook,evenpartial,carriedoutbyanymeans, includingphotocopying,evenforinternalordidacticuse,isprohibitedbycopyright. Table of Contents ExecutiveSummary........................................................................................................................9 Preface...............................................................................................................................................23 ListofAcronyms.............................................................................................................................27 1. Italy’sparticipationincrisismanagementoperations:fighteraircraft’s role................................................................................................................................................31 1.1. 1.2. 1.3. 1.4. 1.5. 1.6. Iraq(1990‐1991)........................................................................................................31 Bosnia‐Herzegovina 1993‐1998 .......................................................................35 Kosovo(1999)..............................................................................................................42 Afghanistan(2001‐2014)........................................................................................47 Libya(2011)..................................................................................................................53 TheroleofItalianfighteraircraftincrisismanagementopera‐ tions...................................................................................................................................59 2. Currentandfutureairoperations:doctrineandtrends......................................65 2.1. AirPower:doctrine’sfundamentals...................................................................65 2.2. Trendsfromtherecentoperationalexperience............................................69 3. Scenariosofpossiblefutureairoperations...............................................................73 3.1. Establishing and enforcing a No‐Fly Zone: “Protect Turians” scenario............................................................................................................................74 3.1.1Strategiccontext...............................................................................................74 3.1.2Missionobjectives............................................................................................75 3.1.3Criticalfactorsoftheoperationalenvironment.................................76 3.1.4Adversary’scapabilitiesandCourseofAction....................................76 3.1.5 Air Component’s Course of Action and required capabi‐ lities........................................................................................................................77 3.2. Air support to land‐based operation: “Stability in Banon” sce‐ nario..................................................................................................................................80 3.2.1Strategiccontext...............................................................................................80 3.2.2Missionobjectives............................................................................................81 5 TABLE OF CONTENTS 3.2.3Criticalfactorsoftheoperationalenvironment.................................82 3.2.4Adversary’scapabilitiesandCourseofAction....................................83 3.2.5 Air Component’s Course of Action and required capabi‐ lities........................................................................................................................83 4. ThemilitaryneedsofItalianArmedForcesandtheF‐35programme.............87 4.1. Firstkeyquestion:doesItalianparticipationincrisismanage‐ mentoperationsservenationalinterests?........................................................88 4.2. Second key question: what kind of air capabilities does Italy needtoparticipateincrisismanagementoperations?..............................95 4.3. Thirdkeyquestion:whatprocurementoptionsareavailableto acquirethiskindofaircapabilities?..................................................................101 4.4. Forthkeyquestion:itisbettertobuyF‐35“off‐the‐shelf”orto participateinthemultinationalprocurementprogramme?................110 5. TheF‐35programmeandItaly:theindustrialperspective.................................115 5.1. Thebestvalueformoneyapproach.................................................................115 5.2. TheItalianparticipationintheprocurementprogramme....................121 Conclusions..................................................................................................................................129 Bibliography.................................................................................................................................131 AnnexI.Listofinterviews......................................................................................................145 TablesandFigures Figure1.ItalianAirForceactivitiesininternationalmissions.............................13 Figure 2. Participation of Italian fighter aircraft in international mis‐ sions:achronology................................................................................................63 Table1.Internationalmissions 1990‐2013 :anoverview.....................................61 Table2.Italiancontributiontointernationalmissions 1990‐2013 ..................62 Table3.F‐35’sacquisitionplans.........................................................................................116 6 ACKNOWLEDGEMENTS Theresearchteamwouldliketothankseveralpeoplefortheircontribu‐ tion to this Research Paper: the Gen. Stefano Cont Capo Ufficio per la PoliticaMilitare,MinisterodellaDifesa forthefruitfulandconstructive exchangeofviewsonthecontentofthisstudy;theGen.RobertoNordio ComandanteComandoOperazioniAeree,PoggioRenatico andtheCol. StefanoGensiniandLeut.Col.FabrizioPiermarioli,aswellastheentire SezioneStatisticaoftheStatoMaggioreAreonautica,fortheirextremely usefulsupportonfindingdataonItalianAirForce’scapabilitiesincrisis management operations; the Gen. Lucio Bianchi Capo del Centro Poli‐ funzionaleVelivoliAerotattici,Cameri ,forthevaluableopportunityto visittheCameribaseanddiscussaboutitsfutureperspectives,andthe Eng.Stranda AleniaAermacchi forkindlyguidingusinsidethefacility. Aspecialthanksgoestothepeopleinterviewedforthisresearch,whose frank, interesting and well‐informed thoughts have fed the elaboration of this study. A list of interviews with a short biography of each inter‐ viewedpersonisincludedintheAnnex I ofthis ResearchPaper.Obvi‐ ously, the authors bear the entire and exclusive responsibility for the content of this study. This research has been carried out with the sup‐ portofLockheedMartin. 7 Executive Summary ThisResearchPaperconsiderstheroleofItalianfighteraircraftinmis‐ sions abroad in the post‐Cold War period, the current Air Power’s trends and doctrinal evolution, as well as possible future scenarios of crisismanagementoperationsinthe“EnlargedMediterranean”envisag‐ ingtheuseoffighteraircraft.Onthebasisofsuchanalysis,theneedsof Italianmilitaryconcerningfighteraircraftareoutlined,andthepossible procurementoptionstosatisfythemarediscussed.Thelastchapterad‐ dresses the Italian participation in the F‐35 procurement programme anditsindustrialaspects. ThefirstchapterisaimedtooutlinetheroleofItalianfighteraircraft incrisismanagementoperationsthatoccurredinthelast24years.Sev‐ eral missions abroad have been considered: the First Gulf War in Iraq 1991 , the NATO operations in Bosnia‐Herzegovina 1993‐1998 , in SerbiaandKosovo 1999 andAfghanistan 2001‐2014 ,aswellasthe multinational air campaign in Libya in 2011, which came under NATO commandafterthefirstphase. IntheFirstGulfWar,underaUNmandate,theUSleda“coalitionof the willing” including 35 countries to conduct Operation Desert Storm aimedatfreeingKuwaitterritoryoccupiedbyIraq.Thebulkofairsor‐ ties was flown by the US 89,1% , while a non‐marginal contribution wasprovidedbytheUK,SaudiArabia,Kuwait,FranceandItaly.Inpar‐ ticular, Italy deployed 8 Tornado which flew 2,326 sorties during the 40‐day long air campaign. The military operation ended when Iraq withdrewitsforcesfromKuwaitandacceptedtheceasefireconditions. Between 1993 and 1998, under UN mandate, NATO undertook sev‐ eraloperationstodealwiththecivilwarinYugoslaviaandparticularly in Bosnia‐Herzegovina. They included: Operation Sharp Guard in sup‐ 9 THE ROLE OF ITALIAN FIGHTER AIRCRAFT IN CRISIS MANAGEMENT OPERATIONS: TRENDS AND NEEDS portofmaritimeembargotocombatants 1993‐1996 ;OperationDeny Flight aimed to enforce a No‐Fly Zone NFZ over Bosnia‐Herzegovina 1993‐1995 ; Operation Deliberate Force to protect UN‐declared “safe areas”bytargetingBosnianSerbmilitarycapabilities 1995 ;Operation Joint Endeavour 1995‐1996 a peace‐keeping ground mission with considerableairsupportincludingfighteraircraft;finallyOperationDe‐ liberateGuardtosupportOperationJointGuard 1996‐1998 .Italycon‐ tributedtoallmissionsbydeployingTornado,AMXandAV‐8B,conduct‐ ing5,023sortiesandflyingfor11,973hours.Italyalsoprovidedthemil‐ itarybasesandthelogisticssupportindispensabletoconducttheseop‐ erations.ThesetofNATOcrisismanagementoperationswasinstrumen‐ taltoforcethevariousYugoslavpartiestosigntheDaytonAgreementin 1995,andtoenforceitinthefollowingyears. On March 1999 NATO undertook Operation Allied Force, aimed to putanendtothearmedrepressionofKosovarminoritiesconductedby theSerbianmilitaryandparamilitaryforces.Theaircampaignlastedfor 78dayswithintensebombingagainstSerbiantargets.Italycontributed with approximately 50 aircraft, including F‐104, Tornado, AMX, reach‐ ing up 1,072 sorties and2,903 hours of flight. Overall, the quantitative and qualitative effort of the Italian forces was highly regarded, as Italy was the third largest European contributor of aircraft and the fourth largestEuropeanintermsofnumberofairsorties.Inparticular,Torna‐ dowereutilizedforSuppressionofEnemyAirDefence SEAD tasks.As alreadyhappenedfortheoperationsinBosnia‐Herzegovina,Italianmili‐ tarybasesandlogisticssupportprovedtobeessentialtoconducttheair campaign.TheoperationendedinJune1999withamilitaryagreement betweenNATOandSerbiawhichenvisagedthecompletewithdrawalof Serbian forcesfrom Kosovo.TheUNSecurityCouncilresolution1244/ 1999pavedthewayforthesubsequentNATOpeace‐keepingmissionin Kosovo. Since2001,theUnitedStatesstartedoperationEnduringFreedomin Afghanistan, with the contribution of several European countries com‐ prising Italy, to undermine terrorist activities from groups linked to Al‐ Qaeda. Concerning the aerial component, the Italian contribution was mainly effectuated by AV‐8B deployed on the Garibaldi aircraft carrier from 2002 to 2006, which carried on Intelligence, Surveillance and Re‐ 10 EXECUTIVE SUMMARY connaissance ISR andCloseAirSupport CAS operations,amountingto 328 sorties and 860 hours of flight. In the meanwhile and starting from 2001, the International Security Assistance Force ISAF has been de‐ ployedin Afghanistan under aUN mandate,in orderto actively support theestablishmentofapeacefulandstableAfghanstatethatwillnotcol‐ ludewithAlQaedaorotherterroristgroupsthreateningNATOmembers. InAugust2003,NATOtookoverthecommandofISAFandextendedthe areaofoperationtocovertheentirecountrywiththecontributionoffifty NATO members and partners. Italy has participated to ISAF since 2002. ItalianGeneralMauroDelVecchiotookcommandofthewholeISAFoper‐ ationbetween2005and2006.SincetheestablishmentofISAFRegional Commandsin2006,ItalyhasmaintainedtheRegionalCommandWest.As of February 2014, Italy had 2,165 units on the ground, ranking fourth amongcontributingnations.Concerningaircapabilities,in2007theJoint AirTaskForcewasestablishedinKabulaspartoftheRegionalCommand West.Asof31stDecember2013,thefighteraircraftdeployedbyItaly,in‐ cludingTornado,AMXandAV‐8B,conductedatotalof3,301airsortiesin theatre,and8,477flighthours.MostsortiesconcernedISRactivities,but fighteraircraftwerealsousedforCAStogroundtroopsengagedwithin‐ surgents.TheISAFmissionissettolastuntiltheendof2014,whenthe transition of security responsibilities to Afghan national security forces andcivilianauthoritieswillbecompleted. ThereasonsthatledsomeNATOcountriestoplanandconductapro‐ longedaircampaigninLibyain2011arestillacontentiousissueandan object of studies and analysis. In March 2011 the UN Security Council resolution1973authorizedtheuseofforce,includingtheestablishment of a NFZ to protect civilians and civilian areas targeted by the Gaddafi loyalistforces.On19MarchtheUS‐ledoperationOdysseyDawnstarted withFrench andBritish militarysupport.On31 March,NATOformally assumedcommandoftheOperationUnifiedProtector,whichlastedun‐ til31 October2011.Bothoperations resultedintheestablishmentand enforcementofaNFZovertheentireLibyanterritory,aswellasintar‐ getingofLibyangovernment’smilitaryandparamilitaryforces.Themil‐ itaryoperationendedwiththecollapseoftheLibyangovernment,with‐ out, nonetheless, any follow‐up NATO mission to support the stabiliza‐ tionofthecountry.Italianmilitarycontributionwasthree‐fold.First,ina 11 THE ROLE OF ITALIAN FIGHTER AIRCRAFT IN CRISIS MANAGEMENT OPERATIONS: TRENDS AND NEEDS chronologicalorder,theItalianNavyledtheNATOnavaloperationtoen‐ forcetheUNarmsembargo.Second,theuseofmilitarybasesintheItal‐ ian territory was crucial to carry on operations, which could not have beenpossiblewithoutsuchalargefootprintclosetotheoperationalthea‐ tre.Third,andmostimportantlyforthefocusofthisstudy,Italianaircraft conductedabout7%ofthetotalalliedmissionsintheLibyanskies.The bulkofcommittedItalianaircapabilitieswerefighteraircraftincludingF‐ 16,AMX,AV‐8B,EurofighterandTornado.Theseaircraftexecuteddiffer‐ enttypesofmissions,suchasSEAD,DefensiveCounterAir DCA ,Offen‐ siveCounterAir OCA ,StrikeCoordinationandReconnaissance SCAR and ISR activities. The Italian armed forces totalled 2,113 sorties flown and 7,255 flight hours during operations in Libya, being this the largest aircampaignItalianAirForcehasbeenengagedinsinceWorldWarII. Considering the aforementioned 10 air operations,1 Italy has de‐ ployeditsfighteraircraft90%underUNSecurityCouncilmandate,and 80% under NATO’s chain of command and control. This insight shows not only Italy’s deep integration and commitment to those organiza‐ tions,butalsothestronginfluenceofaglobalizedinternationalsystem which requires the management of crises by the whole international community. Moreover, Italy’s operational participation in missions abroad envisaging the use of Air Power has grown in qualitative and quantitativetermsoverthelast24years. Italy’s use of fighter aircraft in the post‐Cold War period has gone handinhandwithdevelopmentsoccurredinAirPower’sdoctrine.The secondchapterofthisResearchPaperoutlinesthedoctrinefundamen‐ talsandtrendsstemmingfromtherecentoperationalexperience,with theaimtounderstandcurrentandpossiblefuturewaystoutilizeairca‐ pabilities,includingfighteraircraft.AirPowerisdefinedasthecapacity to project power in the air to influence people’s behaviour and the course of events. Coupled with increasingly capable technology, Air Powerisaflexible,rapid,24/7availabletooltoinfluencetheoperating 1DesertStorm,DenyFlight,SharpGuard,DeliberateForce,DecisiveEndeavour,De‐ liberateGuard,AlliedForce,EnduringFreedom,UnifiedProtector,andInternationalSe‐ curityAssistanceForce ISAF . 12 EXECUTIVE SUMMARY Figure1.ItalianAirForceactivitiesininternationalmissions environment.Asaresult,AirPowercanbeconsideredasaforcemulti‐ plierfordeployedlandandmaritimemilitaryforces. Overall, it is possible to identify four main roles in which Air Power finds its concrete application: Control of the Air; Intelligence, Surveil‐ lance,TargetAcquisition,Reconnaissance ISTAR ;Engagement;AirMo‐ bility.Thefirstthreerolesareparticularlyrelevantinrelationstofighter aircraft. Achieving Control of the Air means being free to use a specific volume of airspace in a given period of time for one’s own purposes, whiledenyingitsusetoothers,ifnecessary.Thankstotheacquisitionof information, ISTAR activities contribute to planning activities and deci‐ sion making during all air operations’ phases. It improves the ability to gain and maintain information superiority, and aims to achieve Situa‐ tionalAwareness,thatishavingafullcomprehensionoftheoperational situationintheatre.IntermsofEngagement,AirPowerroleincludesvar‐ ioustypesofstrikemissions,withmaritimeandterrestrialtargets. Inthiscontext,someimportanttrendsseemtoemergefromairop‐ 13 THE ROLE OF ITALIAN FIGHTER AIRCRAFT IN CRISIS MANAGEMENT OPERATIONS: TRENDS AND NEEDS erationsconductedintheselatest24years.First,therecentoperational experience has raised awareness at the political‐strategic level that complexairoperationsrequiretheavailabilityofallaircomponentsto perform the four Air Power’s roles, and that air capabilities are more andmoreintertwinedamongeachother.Second,ISTARisnotprovided onlybydedicatedplatforms,suchastheRemotelyPilotedAircraftSys‐ tems RPAS , but by a number of sensors and systems embedded in a wideandcomplementaryrangeofaircraft,includingfighter.Third,Con‐ troloftheAirshouldnotbetakenforgranted:inLibya 2011 ,Kosovo 1999 andIraq 1991 thepriorityofthefirstdaysofoperationswas still to ensure coalition’s Control of the Air by destroying opponent command and control structures, most of its air defence fixed systems andcombataircraft.Fourth,withregardtoEngagement,theuseofPre‐ cisionGuidedMunitions PGM hasexponentiallygrownfromtheFirst Gulf War to the Libya campaign. In the future, the need to attack indi‐ vidual targets accurately will continue to be paramount, especially to limitthenumberofcollateraldamagesinhighlypopulatedareas. Building on the analysis of previous crisis management operations, as well as on trends and doctrinal evolutions of Air Power, the third chapterofthisResearchPaperpresentstwoscenarios,showinghowair capabilities,inparticularfighteraircraft,maybeusedincrisismanage‐ mentoperationsinthe2015‐2025timeframe.Inthefirstscenario,itis exposed how air operations are undertaken to establish and enforce a NFZ,whilethesecondoutlineshowairoperationssupportlandopera‐ tions. Each scenario has been redacted on the basis of the same struc‐ ture,whichincludesthe followingelements:StrategicContext;Mission Objectives; Critical Factors of the Operational Environment; Adversary Capabilities and Course of Actions; Air Component Course of Actions andAssociatedCapabilities. Despite this Research Paper does not address the likelihood of these twoscenarios,itisassumedthattheyareatleastpossibleexamplesofair operationsEuropeancountriessuch asItalymayjoininthefuture.As a matter of fact, Italian fighter have been deployed in different contexts, that isin an interstatewar Gulf ,in civilconflicts Bosnia‐Herzegovina, KosovoandLibya andinafailedstatewithsometypicalconnotationsof insurgency and civil war Afghanistan . Indeed, armed conflicts will still 14 EXECUTIVE SUMMARY beafeatureoftheinternationalsecurityenvironmentinthemedium‐long term,withconflictareasparticularlyconcentratedinAfrica,MiddleEast andEastandSouthAsia.Thephenomenonof“failedstates”willalsore‐ mainonthesceneforlong,especiallyifthelevelofviolenceintheafore‐ mentionedregionswillnotdecrease.Inthiscontext,itispossibletoimag‐ ine the future employment of fighter aircraft inthoseregions, either for combatorstabilizationpurposes.AsonemightarguethatNATOwillnev‐ er go “that out of area,” one might reply that probably at the end of the ColdWarnonewouldhaveexpectedtoseeNATOrunningpeace‐keeping operationsinKosovofirstandinAfghanistanlater,orcarryingonmilitary interventionsintheBalkansandinLibya. Theanalysisofpastoperationalexperiences,AirPower’strendsand possiblefuturescenariosofairoperationspose anumber ofkeyques‐ tionsthatshouldbeaskedtoItalianpolicy‐makers,includingcivilianau‐ thorities – in primis the Parliament and the Government – and the armedforces.Therefore,thefourthchapterofthisResearchPaperaims toaddresssuchquestions,todiscusstherelatedprocurement’sneedsof theItalianmilitary,andfinallytoassesswhethertheF‐35procurement programmemightbeabletosatisfythoseneedsornot. ThefirstkeyquestioniswhetherItalianparticipationincrisisman‐ agementoperationstogetherwithEuropeanandNorthAmericanallies doesservenationalinterests.Thechangesoccurredintheinternational contextmakenationalinterestsaffectedbycrisis,risksandthreatsoc‐ curringwellbeyondterritorialborders.Globalizationandeconomicin‐ terdependencehaveobviouslyplayedafundamentalroleinthisregard. TheItalianparticipationincrisismanagementoperationsinthelast24 yearshascontributeddirectlyorindirectlytoprotectandpromotena‐ tional interests. For example, the stabilization of Bosnia‐Herzegovina, Kosovoand,generallyspeaking,theWesternBalkanswasaclear,direct nationalinterest.Sincetheearly1990s,Italyhadsufferedboththeflows ofillegalimmigrantsfromtheseregionsandtheemergenceofillicittraf‐ fics or the development of organized crime. For that reason, interna‐ tional missions, including those conducted through Air Power, have beeninstrumentaltopacifyandstabilizeageographicalareaextremely closetotheItaliansoilandlinkedtoItaly’seconomicsystem. Italianparticipationinothermissionsabroadhasservednationalin‐ 15 THE ROLE OF ITALIAN FIGHTER AIRCRAFT IN CRISIS MANAGEMENT OPERATIONS: TRENDS AND NEEDS terests in a more indirect way. For instance, the active participation in NATOoperationsrepresentsaninvestmentinakindof“insurancepoli‐ cy”forItaly’snationalsecurity.Italydoesnothavesufficientcapabilities toprotectaloneitssecurityinterests.Ineffect,theystretchwellbeyond national borders and include: safe trade routes in the “Enlarged Medi‐ terranean,”energysuppliesfromNorthAfrica,MiddleEastandCentral Asia,bordercontrolintheMediterraneaninrelationtoillegalimmigra‐ tionandmaritimesecurity.Anactive,reliableandstableItalianpartici‐ pationinallNATOmissionsisinstrumentaltogainthenecessarycredi‐ bility to push the Alliance to deal with the purposes of Italian interna‐ tional agenda. Furthermore, being these crisis management operations setupandledbyinternationalorganizations,itallowsItalytosharese‐ curity risks and costs, to extend its intervention’s range to protect na‐ tional interests, and to enhance inter‐allies solidarity. Finally, Italian participationinmissionsabroadisalsoamannertomaintainstrongre‐ lationswithitsmainsecurityally,theUS.Beingsurroundedbyunstable regions–fromWesternBalkanstotheSouthernMediterraneanshores– andunableasa“middlepower”toshapetheeventsintheseregionson its own, Italy has traditionally relied on “asymmetric alliances” with stronger partners such as the US to address common security con‐ cerns. Italian participation in crisis management operations foreseeing theuseofAirPowerdoesnotguaranteepersétheprotectionofItaly’s nationalinterests.Suchprotectiondepends,amongotherthings,bythe capacityoftheItaliangovernmenttomakethebestofthemilitarycon‐ tributionprovidedvis‐à‐vistheallies.Inthisregard,Italy’sparticipation inmissionsabroad,whichalsoincludesairoperations,isafundamental enablerforItaliandefenceandforeignpolicy. IfitisassumedthatmaintainingthecapacitytoprojectAirPowerin crisis management operations does serve Italian defence and foreign policy,andultimatelyItaly’snationalinterests,thesecondkeyquestion iswhatkindofaircapabilitiesareneeded.Asamatteroffact,thefighter aircraftfleetusedsofarwillbephasedoutinthenextdecade.Thereis thusanunavoidableneedtoreplace253aircraftbelongingtothreedif‐ ferentline‐ups,including18AV‐8BoftheNavy,136AMXand99Torna‐ dooftheAirForce.Manyofthemhavebeenbuiltinthe1980s,oreven inthe1970s,andasfarastheirlife‐cyclereaches35/40years,theycan‐ 16 EXECUTIVE SUMMARY not guarantee safety conditions to the aircrew anymore. Besides, one shouldconsiderthat,althoughRPASarelikelytocomplementfutureair fleets, they will not yet replace manned fighter aircraft completely. In thisregard,toidentifyItalianfutureaircapabilities’needs,severalles‐ sonscanbelearnedfrommissionsconsideredinthisstudy.Firstofall, interoperabilityconstitutesacrucialrequirement,sinceItalianaircraft– bothfromtheAirForceandtheNavy–havealwaysoperatedwithinin‐ ternationalcoalitions.Second,thecapacitytoconnectfighteraircraftto otherplatforms,fromunitsonthegroundtothecommandandcontrol centresisfundamental:theaircraftshouldbe“net‐centric,”thatisbeing fullyableto gatheranddisseminateinformationfromandtotheother nodesofthenet.Athirdcrucialneedistheradarlow‐observability also called “stealthness” , as it greatly reduces the chances of an aircraft to beshutdownbytheopponentairdefencesystem.Finally,thefactthat all considered crisis management operations have taken place beyond national territory makes “deployability” at strategic distance another fundamentalneedforaircapabilities. If it is assumed that keeping the capacity to project Air Power through crisis management operations does serve Italian defence and foreign policy, and ultimately Italy’s national interests; if it is assumed thatcurrentItalianfighteraircraftfleetneedstobereplacedbyaircraft whichshouldbeinteroperable,net‐centric,low‐observableanddeploy‐ able;thenthenextkeyquestionforpolicy‐makersiswhatprocurement optionsareavailabletoacquirethekindofaircapabilitiesneededbyIt‐ aly.Intheory,afirstoptionistodevelopaEuropeanprocurementpro‐ grammebringingtogetherthemainEuropeancountriesintermsofde‐ fencecapabilities,namelyFrance,GermanyandtheUK,aimedtodevel‐ opa5thgenerationfighteraircraft.Suchaninvestmentshouldhavebeen doneinthe mid‐1990sinordertodeliver afightercapabilityby 2020. Yet,thishasnotoccurred,eitherbecauseEuropeancountriespreferred toinvestinnationalprocurementprogrammes,likeFranceforinstance, orbecausetheypreferredtocutthedefencebudgetandsobenefitfrom theso‐called“peacedividends”,asGermanydid.Astodaythereisnopo‐ liticalwillinEuropetoinvestinthiskindofprogramme,suchprocure‐ mentoptionremainsoffthetablebecauseofthechoicesmadebymajor European countries back in the 1990s. A second theoretical option for 17 THE ROLE OF ITALIAN FIGHTER AIRCRAFT IN CRISIS MANAGEMENT OPERATIONS: TRENDS AND NEEDS Italy, in order to obtain needed air capabilities to replace old ones, wouldbetodevelopandbuildaground‐attackversionoftheEurofight‐ er,thefighteraircraftdesignedbyGermany,Italy,Spain and theUKin the 1980s, with a full 5th generation strike capacity. Again, this option shouldhave beenundertakenat maximumintheearly 2000s,through significantEuropeanjointinvestmentsinresearchanddevelopmentac‐ tivities,aimingtomodifyanaircraftwhichwasnotoriginallydesigned tofulfilsuchaground‐attackrole.GiventhatmembersoftheEurofight‐ erconsortiumwere andare notwillingtoundertakethispath,there‐ forethisoptionisoffthetabletoo. ThethirdandlastoptiontosatisfyItalianmilitaryneedsintermsof air capabilities is to acquire F‐35 aircraft. It has been estimated that more than 3,000 F‐35 units will beprocured, 2,443 of them for the US armed forces, and the rest for other 12 countries Australia, Canada, Denmark,Italy,Israel,Japan,theNetherlands,Norway,Singapore,South Korea,TurkeyandtheUK .Thiswillpermithighlevelofinteroperabil‐ itytothosecountriestakingparttotheprocurementprogram.TheF‐35 presents all the advanced features typical of 5th generation fighter air‐ craft:itisequippedwithsensorsandcomputingcapacityfordatafusion inanet‐centricperspective;itslowobservabilityisensuredbyanum‐ berofelements,includingitsairframe’sdesign,theconfigurationofits internalbayswhereweaponsarestoredandaspecifictypeofpainting. Moreover, the F‐35 internal bays avoid that weapon’s systems located ontheexternalsidewoulddamageaircraft’saerodynamic,itsspeedor manoeuvrability; in turn, this diminishes fuel consumption while fa‐ vouring the aircraft range and deployability. The latter is greatly aug‐ mentedbythepresenceofaspecificversionoftheF‐35 F‐35B capable ofverticaltake‐offsandlandingfromaircraftcarriers,forinstancefrom ItalianCavourcarrier.ThisisparticularlyimportantforItalyinorderto maintainNavy’saircapabilities,sofarguaranteedbyAV‐8Baircraft. IfitisassumedthattheF‐35istheonlyavailableoptiontoprocure an interoperable, net‐centric, low‐observable and highly deployable fighter aircraft to satisfy Italy’s military needs to participate in crisis managementoperations,thelastkeyquestionforpolicy‐makersregards howtoacquirethisaircraft.Inprinciple,twowaysareavailable:either to participate in the procurement programme, or to buy F‐35 “off‐the‐ 18 EXECUTIVE SUMMARY shelf”thatisonthemarketplace.Fromamilitarypointofview,partici‐ pating in the procurement programme generates several positive out‐ comes.First,itbooststhe“operationalsovereignty”–thatisthepossibil‐ ity to have platform, weapons’ system and ISTAR’s functions at your complete disposal, without relying on third parties for technology, up‐ dates, security of supply of various components – which is clearly re‐ duced,ifnotdepleted,incaseof“off‐the‐shelf”acquisitions.Second,ital‐ lows Italian pilots to start as soon as possible their training with part‐ ners’aircrews–particularlyUSones–thusenjoyingimmediatebenefits intermsofinteroperability.Eventually,theconstructionoftheFinalAs‐ sembly and Check Out FACO of Cameri, as part of the procurement programme,impliesthattheItalianMinistryofDefencewillnothaveto spendmoretobuildanotherfacilitytomaintainandupgradethe90F‐35 ItalyhascommitteditselftobuyfortheAirForceandtheNavy.Indeed, FACOisalreadysettobecometheMaintenanceRepairOverhaulandUp‐ grade MRO&U centerforF‐35basedinEurope.Regardingthetimeline of F‐35’s acquisition and its related cost, Italy has chosen to wait the sixthtrancheofLowRateInitialProduction LRIP tobuyitsfirstaircraft at the cost of around 130 million dollar, way less in comparison to the 230milliondollarofthefirstaircraftproduced.Thecostatthefullrate productionisestimatedtodecreaseat85milliondollarperunit. ThefifthandlastchapterofthisResearchPaperdiscussestheindus‐ trialaspectsoftheF‐35multinationalcollaborationandtheItalianpartic‐ ipation in the procurement programme. Italy participation in the F‐35 programme began in 1998 when the left‐wing government decided to invest 10 million dollar in the Concept Demonstration Phase. In 2002, theItalianright‐winggovernmentconfirmedthischoicebycommitting 1,028 billion dollar in the System Design and Development Phase. In 2007, the left‐wing government signed the bilateral Memorandum of Understanding MoU withtheUSfortheProduction,Sustainment,and Follow‐onDevelopmentPhase,withaninvestmentof904milliondollar. In2009,theItalianParliamentapprovedtheacquisitionof131F‐35.At the same time, Italy decided to build the FACO/MRO&U facility at Cameri.In2012,theItaliangovernmentreducedtheoverallfleetnum‐ ber of F‐35 from 131 to 90 60 F‐35A and 30 F‐35B . Since Italy is in‐ volvedintheF‐35programmeasLevel2partner,sharingroughly4%of 19 THE ROLE OF ITALIAN FIGHTER AIRCRAFT IN CRISIS MANAGEMENT OPERATIONS: TRENDS AND NEEDS the total cost, it has limited opportunities to influence aircraft’s re‐ quirements. The F‐35 entails a radical change of the way to envisage a multina‐ tionalprocurementprogrammeinthedefencefield.Infact,itisbasedon theprincipleof“bestvalueformoney”,whichimpliesacertaindegreeof competitionamongsupplierstoofferthebestprice/qualityratiotothe primecontractor–LockheedMartin.ThisisquitenewconsideringItal‐ ianindustry’spastexperienceinprogrammesbasedonthe“justeretour principle”,wherebycost‐sharedividedamongparticipatinggovernments mustequalthework‐shareamongnationalindustriescomposingthein‐ dustrial consortium. Nevertheless, it has been considered necessary to applythesetwoconcepts–competitionandbestvalueformoney–with certainflexibilitytoavoidto“overstress”thesupplychain.Forinstance, LockheedMartinforeseesthepossibilityofsigningagreementswithtwo differentsuppliersofagivenitem,asitdeemsstrategictohavingmore than a single supply source – the so‐called “strategic second sources” method.ThisisthecaseoftheFinmeccanicacompanyAleniaAermacchi thathasa“strategicsecondsource”statusfortheF‐35wings. The majority of supplier agreements with Lockheed Martin have a one‐yearterm,astheUSgovernmentdecidesthenumberofF‐35tobe purchased year by year, influencing the production planning of the prime contractor. Such a management system seems to overstress the supply chain and it does not encourage sub‐contractors to adopt long‐ term investments plans, because it has to take on its own the risk to makeinvestmentswithouttheassurancethatthevolumeofproduction will be guaranteed in the next years. Another critical issue regards the lack of Italian industries’ participation in development and integration phases, characterized by a greater use of high technologies. Obstacles aremainly,butnotonly,duetoUSregulationsuchastheInternational TrafficinArmsRegulation ITAR ,aswellastoAmericanNationalDis‐ closurePolicy. Around 90 Italian companies are involved in the procurement pro‐ gramme,andsofarthecontractsawardedtotheItalianindustrieshave reachedanoverallvalueof715milliondollar.Ofthisamount,565mil‐ liondollararerelatedtotheFinmeccanicagroup,mainlythroughAlenia Aermacchi,whichisresponsiblefortheconstructionofmorethan1,200 20 EXECUTIVE SUMMARY wings.Theterm“wings”includesboththetwosemi‐wings–morethan 2,400units–andthecentralcelloftheaircraftholdingthemtogether, beingthis30%oftheentireairframewithsignificantengineeringchal‐ lenges.ConcerningSmallandMediumEnterprises SMEs ,theyproved tobeflexibleandadaptableinofferingthebestvalueformoneywithin theF‐35programme.However,theysufferedmorethanlargercontrac‐ torstheone‐yearcontractsapproach,thispracticediscouragingthemto makelong‐terminvestments. Theprocurementprogrammepresentspotentialrevenuesaround10 billiondollarforItalianindustries,butthiswilldependontheabilityto exploit the infrastructures created – first and foremost the Cameri FA‐ CO/MRO&U–tobuildcomponentsandtoprovidemaintenance,support and upgrade, in particular regarding avionics and electronics. The Camerisiteincludes:aFACOfacilitytoassembletheItalianF‐35AandF‐ 35B variants, the F‐35A procured by Netherlands, and potentially the aircraft to be procured by other European partners such as Denmark and Norway; a wing construction facility which serves the entire pro‐ curement programme; the aircraft test facility aimed at testing low‐ observable performance, and the related final paint facility; buildings aimed to support F‐35 operating by the US and allies in Europe. Being the only FACO outside US territory, Cameri represents a fundamental asset for the entire F‐35 global production and maintenance system. Maintenancewillalsointroducesignificanttechnologicaldevelopments andinnovationbecauseitwillgohandinhandwiththeplatform’sup‐ gradeandrevisionthroughoutitswholelife‐cycleof30/40years. Asawhole,theItalianparticipationintheprocurementprogramme presentsprosandcons,opportunitiesandchallenges.Inotherpastpro‐ grammes,basedonthejusteretourprinciple,negotiationslargelyended whentheagreementoncost‐shareandwork‐sharewasreached.Thisis not the case of the F‐35 programme. The new procurement approach basedonthebestvalueformoneyprinciplehasimposedontheItalian industrytobecomemorecompetitiveandtotakemorerisksinmanag‐ ing its own investments. It also requires the Italian military and gov‐ ernment to assist the industry in this regard, by making an additional and constant effort in negotiating with US counterparts on technology transferandotherrelevantaspectsoftheprocurementprogramme. 21 Preface MilitaryexpendituresseldomenjoyapopularpositionwithintheItalian public debate, except for experts and practitioners including the armed forcesanddefenceindustry.Therefore,therecentandstillharshpolemics ononeofthemostimportantItaliandefenceprocurementprogrammesof thelastyearsarenotsurprising.Though,itisrathersurprisingthatthese controversies have basically regarded just one specific programme, al‐ mostomittingotherswhicharefinanciallymoredemanding. Inanycase,theaimofthisstudyisnotthatofanalysingthereasons behindvariouspolemics.Ourpurposeisratherthatofgraspingthecore reasons which led Italy to find a future replacement for the current fighteraircraftoftheAirForceandNavy,equippedwithTornado,AMX andAV‐8Baircraft.Furthermore,weevaluatethewaytosatisfymilitary requirementsbytakingintoaccount operational,logistic,technological andindustrialaspects.Theanalysisisconductedbymaintainingareal‐ istic approach with regard to both international scenarios and the na‐ tionalandEuropeanindustrialcontext. We started from an historical overview in order to have a concrete ideaoftheactionofItalianfighteraircraftduringthepost‐ColdWarpe‐ riod.Itisacomplexandstillon‐goinghistoricalphase,characterizedby high level of uncertainty. This requires an extraordinary flexible mind‐ setfrompolicy‐makers,whichinturnimpliestheavailabilityoflikewise flexiblepolicytools–includingmilitaryones.Inthiscontext,AirPower hasproventoplayacrucialrole.First,itenablesothermilitarycompo‐ nentstofullyexploittheirpotentialities,withoutworryingaboutanyair threat.Second,insomecases,AirPoweralonehasledtodesiredpoliti‐ calachievements,suchasthesigningoftheDaytonAgreementafterthe 1995 air campaign in Bosnia‐Herzegovina, or the Military Technical 23 THE ROLE OF ITALIAN FIGHTER AIRCRAFT IN CRISIS MANAGEMENT OPERATIONS: TRENDS AND NEEDS Agreements after the 1999 air campaign in Kosovo, which provided groundforcestheabilitytooperateinapermissiveenvironment.Recent historyshowstheimpossibilityofrenouncingtoControltheAir. Theproverbsaysthatgeneralstendtolosethenextwarbyusingthe strategies used in the previous one – even if those were successful. Therefore,weputacreativeefforttoidentifypossiblefuturescenarios ofairoperationsnotthataffectedbypreviousoperationalexperiences– while taking advantage of them. These scenarios demonstrate that the full availability of Air Power is necessary to ensure security, mobility and logistics support to ground and maritime forces, as well as that of civilian organizations whose action is necessary to manage any crisis whichoftenandtragicallytakesplaceinourneighbourhood. Fromanoperationalpointofview,Italianfighteraircraftaregradual‐ lybecomingmoreandmoreobsolete,soItalyneedstohandletheissue ofreplacingthecurrentfleet.Welookedatallpossibleoptionstosolve this problem, which can ensure adequate timing, sustainable costs as well as interoperability with the necessary and potential partners and allies.Operationalneedsshouldbeconsideredtogetherwiththeoverall economic situation in Italy, both in budgetary terms and from an eco‐ nomic‐industrialpointofview.Consequently,wedevotedaspecificfo‐ custotheindustrialaspectsoftheprocurementprogramme,inorderto test its compatibility with current technological capacities and occupa‐ tionaltrendswithinthecountry.Thedecisiontojointheprogrammefor the production of F‐35 aircraft seems to be the only feasible option. In fact, developing a ground attack version of the Eurofighter Typhoon would present technical uncertainties hard to solve, which imply very high costs and uncertain timing, and European partners seems not in‐ terested to do it. Moreover, because of the way the Eurofighter pro‐ grammeisconceived,choosingthispathmeansthatonly21%oftheen‐ tirework‐sharewillbecarriedoutinItaly,whereasGermany,Spainand UKwillbenefitfrom79%oftheinvestment. The Italian F‐35 choice requires political and military authorities to pay attention to any single phase of the procurement programme, in‐ cludingthelogisticsupportinthelongterm,inordertoprotectnational interestsfrombothanoccupationalandtechnologicalpointofview.In other words, they must avoid any subjection towards the US govern‐ 24 PREFACE ment, as well as towards the prime contractor Lockheed Martin. The strategicvalueoftheF‐35programme,alsoconsideredasabindingfac‐ torinthecontextoftransatlanticsecurity,makesitacentralelementin the relationship with the American government. It is in such compre‐ hensiveperspectivethatthisprogrammeshouldbeevaluated. VincenzoCamporini VicePresidentofIAI 25 List of Acronyms AAR ACE AI APOD ASUW ASW ATO BLF BNDF BVR C2 C4I CAS CBG CDP CNO CoA COAC COMAO CSAR CSDP CTOL DCA ECM ECR EO Air‐to‐AirRefuelling AlliedCommandEurope AirInterdiction AerialPortsofDebarkation Anti‐SurfaceWarfare Anti‐SubmarineWarfare AirTaskingOrder BanonLiberationFront BanonNationalDefenceForce BeyondVisualRange CommandandControl Command,Control,Communications,Computersand Intelligence CloseAirSupport CarrierBattleGroup ConceptDemonstrationPhase ComputerNetworkOperations CourseofAction COmbinedAiroperationCentre COmbinedAirOperations CombatSearchandRescue CommonSecurityandDefencePolicy ConventionalTake‐OffandLanding DefensiveCounterAir ElectronicCounterMeasures ElectronicCombatReconnaissance EarthObservation 27 THE ROLE OF ITALIAN FIGHTER AIRCRAFT IN CRISIS MANAGEMENT OPERATIONS: TRENDS AND NEEDS EW F2T2EA FACO FMS GoB HARM HN IADS ICT IED IFOR IO ISR ISTAR ITAR JATF JFACC JFC JPO KLA LRIP MANPADS MoU MRO&U NAEW NEC NFZ OCA PGM PNT PSFD RoE RPAS RS ElectronicWarfare Find,Fix,Track,Target,Engage,Assess FinalAssemblyandCheckOut ForeignMilitarySales GovernmentofBanon HighSpeedAnti‐RadiationMissile HostNation IntegratedAirDefenceSystem InformationandCommunicationTechnologies ImprovisedExplosiveDevice ImplementationForce InformationOperations Intelligence,SurveillanceandReconnaissance Intelligence,Surveillance,TargetAcquisition, Reconnaissance InternationalTrafficinArmsRegulation JointAirTaskForce JointForceAirComponentCommand JointForceCommand JointProgrammeOffice KosovoLiberationArmy LowRateInitialProductionPhase MAN‐PortableAir‐DefenceSystems MemorandumofUnderstanding MaintenanceRepairOverhaulandUpgrade NATOAirborneEarlyWarning NetworkEnabledCapability No‐FlyZone OffensiveCounterAir PreciseGuidedMunitions PositionNavigatingandTiming Production,Sustainment,andFollow‐onDevelopment (Phase) RulesofEngagement RemotelyPilotAircraftSystem RepublicofSari 28 LIST OF ACRONYMS RSS SA SAM SAR SCAR SDA SDB SDD SEAD STOVL TACP TAR UNAMA UNFB UNSC WEU ReformofSecuritySector SituationalAwareness SurfacetoAirMissile SearchAndRescue StrikeCoordinationAndReconnaissance SariDemocraticArmy SmallDiameterBomb SystemDesignandDevelopment(Phase) SuppressionofEnemyAirDefenses ShortTake‐OffandVerticalLanding TacticalAirControlPost TacticalAirReconnaissance UnitedNationAssistanceMissioninAfghanistan UNForceinBanon UnitedNationsSecurityCouncil WesternEuropeanUnion 29 1. Italy’s participation in crisis management operations: fighter aircraft’s role ThischapterisaimedtooutlinetheroleofItalianfighteraircraftincri‐ sismanagementoperationswhichoccurredinthelast24years.Several missionsabroadhavebeenconsidered:theFirstGulfWarinIraq 1990‐ 1991 ; the North Atlantic Treaty Organization NATO operations in Bosnia‐Herzegovina 1993‐1998 ,SerbiaandKosovo 1999 ;theinter‐ nationalmissionsinAfghanistan 2001‐2014 ,andfinallythe2011mul‐ tinationalaircampaigninLibya,whichcameunderNATOcommandaf‐ terthefirstphaseofairoperations.1Thefollowingparagraphssumma‐ rizeforeachmissionthemotivationsandgoalsofthemilitaryinterven‐ tion,andexplaintheroleofItalywithrespecttocoalitionallies. 1.1 IRAQ (1990-1991) IraqinvadedKuwaiton2August1990.Thiswastheculminationoflong standingtensionsbetweenthetwostates.Inparticular,SaddamHussein 1Inthepost‐ColdWarperiodtheItalianarmedforcesengagedinmanyotherinter‐ nationalmissions,includingthreelarge‐scalechallengingonesinSomalia,Lebanonand Iraq. In some cases, i.e. in Iraq in 2003‐2006, they envisaged also the utilization of air capabilitiessuchashelicopters,RemotelyPilotedAerialSystems RPAS ,andairliftca‐ pabilitieslikeC‐130J.Inparticular,theAV‐8BaircraftwereusedinSomaliain1995to supporttheredeploymentItalianandcoalitiontroops,andin2006operatedinfrontof Lebanoncoasttomonitornavalcommercialtraffic.Allthesemissionsabroadhavenot beenconsideredinthisstudy,becauseitfocusesoncrisismanagementoperationsfea‐ turingasubstantialuseoffighteraircraft. 31 THE ROLE OF ITALIAN FIGHTER AIRCRAFT IN CRISIS MANAGEMENT OPERATIONS: TRENDS AND NEEDS hadaccusedsomeGulfstatesof“stabbingIraqintheback”byproducing more oil than the quotas agreed with other states belonging to the Or‐ ganization of the Petroleum Exporting Countries OPEC and thus de‐ creasing world oil price.2 After the invasion, international diplomacies begantoworktofindapoliticalsolutiontothecrisis.Despitetheeffort, no agreement was reached and the UN Security Council UNSC ap‐ proved resolution 678/1990, authorizing UN member‐states to “use all necessarymeans”ifIraqhadnotcompliedwithpreviousUNresolutions – i.e. resolution 661/1990 – and withdrew its military forces from Ku‐ waitby16 January1991.SaddamHussein’sregimedisregardedtheulti‐ matumandon17JanuaryaUS‐ledcoalitionbegantobombIraqimilitary installationsinIraqandKuwait.3OperationDesertStormhadstarted. Thefirst goalof theUS‐ledcoalitionwas torestoreinternationallaw thathadbeenviolatedbyIraqiaggressionofKuwait.Theinterventionoc‐ curredincompliancewiththeUnitedNationsChart–inparticularChap‐ ter VII, art. 51 – which recognizes the right of individual and collective self‐defence if an armed attack occurs against a UN member, as well as withUNSCresolutions661/1990and678/1990,whichprovidedaneven broader mandate than self‐defence. Furthermore, the military interven‐ tion was also meant to avoid the diffusion of political instability in the PersianGulf,thisregionbeingextremelyimportantforworldeconomyas amajorsourceofoilproduction.AsstatedbyUSSecretaryofStateJames Baker in November 1990, “Iraq’s invasion and occupation of Kuwait threatenedtheeconomiclifelineoftheWestandthatUSeffortstocontain SaddamHusseinweretoprotectUSjobs.”4Likewise,arobustmilitaryre‐ sponsefromtheinternationalcommunitywouldhavediscouragedIraqto carryonanexpansionistandaggressivepolicytowardsSaudiArabia,one ofthemainUSalliesintheregiontogetherwithIsrael.5 Sincethe beginningoftheintervention,35countries “theCoalition oftheWilling” wereengagedinoneformoranotherinOperationDe‐ 2 Clyde R. Mark, Renee Stasio, “Iraq‐Kuwait Crisis: A Chronology of Events July 17, 1990‐May6,1991”,inCRSReportforCongress,No.91‐14F May1991 . 3Ibid. 4Ibid. 5Ibid. 32 1. ITALY’S PARTICIPATION IN CRISIS MANAGEMENT OPERATIONS: FIGHTER AIRCRAFT’S ROLE sert Storm,6 although only US, UK, Saudi Arabia, France, Italy, Kuwait, andBahraincontributedintermsofairassetstotheoperation.Contri‐ butionisintendedasthenumberofairsortiesflownbyacertaincoun‐ tryinrelationtothetotalofthecoalition seetablebelow .TheNorth AtlanticAllianceOrganization NATO wasengagedwithinthecoalition aswell:ontherequestoftheTurkishgovernmenttheAlliedCommand Europe ACE MobileForce Air wasdeployedtoprotectTurkeyfrom possibleIraqiretaliations,andItalyprovidedacellof6F104‐Gfromthe 28th squadron, which successfully completed their deterrence mission withoutanyrealengagement. SincetheUSprovidedtheoverwhelmingmajorityofmilitarycapabili‐ ties, the coalition strategy reflected American objectives and concerns. TheUSadministrationledbyGeorgeBushinsistedthatthecoalitionpri‐ mary objective was to free Kuwait and not to pursue regime change in Iraq,aslookingforthistypeofgoalwouldhavestrainedrelationshipwith the Arab world and with Western states within the coalition.7 In doing that, two important related objectives were made clear from the begin‐ ning: avoiding another Vietnam type of experience and minimizing as muchaspossiblecasualtiesamongWesterntroops.TheVietnamWarhad hadastrongimpactonAmericanapproach,withPresidentBushpromis‐ ingtheAmericanpublicopinionthatanymilitaryactionwould nothave been“anotherVietnam”andaskingthemilitarytodefuseatanycostan‐ other similar quagmire scenario. Moreover, casualties should have been keptbelow aminimumthresholdtoensurepublicopinion’ssupport for theentiredurationofthewar,thuspreventinganymanifestationofpub‐ licdisapprovalwhichcouldhaveplayedinfavourofSaddamHussein. All this was translated into a military strategy aiming to the rapid 6Albania,Australia,Bahrain,Bulgaria,Croatia,CzechRepublic,Denmark,Egypt,Es‐ tonia, Ethiopia, Hungary, Iceland, Israel, Italy, Kuwait, Japan, Jordan, Latvia, Lithuania, Macedonia,Netherlands,Oman,Palau,Poland,Portugal,Oman,Palau,Poland,Portugal, Qatar, Romania, Saudi Arabia, Singapore, Slovakia, Slovenia, Spain, United Arab Emir‐ ates,Turkey,UK,USA.ForadetaileddescriptionoftheircontributionseeJesseLorenz, “TheCoalitionoftheWilling”,June2003,http://www.stanford.edu/class/e297a/The% 20Coalition%20of%20the%20Willing.htm. 7LawrenceFreedmanandEfraimKarsh,“HowKuwaitWasWon:StrategyintheGulf War”,inInternationalSecurity,Vol.16,No.2 Fall1991 ,pp.5‐41. 33 THE ROLE OF ITALIAN FIGHTER AIRCRAFT IN CRISIS MANAGEMENT OPERATIONS: TRENDS AND NEEDS achievementofairsuperiority,theinterdictionofsupplylines,andafi‐ nal fast and mobile desert campaign based on manoeuvre rather than attrition.8 After a five‐weeks long intense bombing campaign, which deeply weakened Iraqi military forces, the land operation to liberate Kuwaitcitybeganon23 February.Onlythreedayslater,Baghdadradio announcedthewithdrawalofallIraqiforcesfromKuwaitincompliance withUNSCresolution660/1990.9 InthecontextofOperationDesertStorm,Italydeployed8Tornado fighter of 6th, 36th and 50th Wings to the Persian Gulf since September 1990.TheirfirstmissionwastodefendItalianNavalForcesthatwere operating in the region, enforcing the international embargo put in placebyUNresolution661/1990.10OperationLocustastartedfromGi‐ oia del Colle military basis on 25 September and had its operational headquarterinAlDhafraAirBase,intheUnitedArabEmirates.Italian militaryoperationsstartedon17January,whentheItaliangovernment, with the support of the Parliament, decided to upgrade missions and tasksoftheItalianAutonomousFlightDepartmentinthePersianGulf, allowing its units to conduct war operations for the first time since WorldWarII. Inthenightbetween17and18 January,ItalianTornadocarriedout theirfirstmissionorderedbytheInter‐AlliedAirCommand.Duetothe prohibitive meteorological conditions, the eight Tornado fighter‐ bomber, except for one, missed the window of the air‐to‐air refuelling. Theonlyaircraftthatwasabletorefueldecidedtocontinuethemission alone.Intheprocessofdisengagement,afterhavingsuccessfullyhitthe target,aTornadowasshotdownbytheIraqiairdefencesystemandPi‐ lotMajorGianmarcoBelliniandhisnavigatorCaptainMaurizioCoccio‐ lonehadtoejectfromtheaircraft.Later,theywerecapturedbytheIraqi forcesandwereimprisoneduntiltheendofthewar.Fromthenon,Ital‐ 8Foraninsiderperspectiveontheaircampaign,seeMarioArpino,IltargetinginDe‐ sertStorm,speechdeliveredattheconferenceon“L’Aerocooperazioneneiteatriopera‐ tivi”,Rome,27June2013. 9ClydeR.Mark,ReneeStasio,“Iraq‐KuwaitCrisis…”,cit. 10 “I Tornado nel Golfo Persico: Operazione Locusta”, in Rivista Aeronautica, n. 6/ 1990,pp.26‐29. 34 1. ITALY’S PARTICIPATION IN CRISIS MANAGEMENT OPERATIONS: FIGHTER AIRCRAFT’S ROLE ian Air Force successfully completed 31 missions, including those be‐ tween 24 and 27 February, when land forces began ground operations and freed Kuwait city from Iraqi occupation. When all UN resolutions were accepted by the Iraqi government on 28 February, war activities stopped. Three days later, Major Gianmarco Bellini and Captain Mau‐ rizioCocciolonewerereleasedbytheIraqigovernmentandflewbackto Italy.Bymid‐March,thetenTornadoslefttheGulfandwentbacktoGi‐ oiadelColle,wheretheywerewelcomedbytheMinisterofDefenceand the highest military representatives.11 Overall, the number of sorties flown by Italian fighter aircraft during Operazione Locusta – from 25 September 1990 to 16 March 1991 – was 2,326, with 4,503 flight hours.12 OPERATIONDESERTSTORM Generalinformation(August1990‐February1991) CoalitionForces (maincontributors)13 ChainofCommand UNSecurityCouncil Resolution US,UK,SaudiArabia,Ku‐ wait,France,Italy,Bahrain UnitedStates Yes Italiancontribution (September1990‐March1991) Aircraft Sorties FlightHours 8Tornado 2,326 4,503 1.2 BOSNIA-HERZEGOVINA (1993-1998) In the early 1990s civil conflicts erupted in Slovenia, Croatia and Bos‐ nia‐Herzegovina, materializing the fears of the “Yugoslavia Break‐up”, 11 Italian Air Force, Operazioni Internazionali, Iraq 1990 , http://www.aeronautica. difesa.it/Operazioni/Internazionali/Pagine/LaguerrainIraq.aspx. 12DataprovidedbytheItalianAirForce’sstatisticaldivision. 13JesseLorenz,TheCoalitionoftheWilling,cit. 35 THE ROLE OF ITALIAN FIGHTER AIRCRAFT IN CRISIS MANAGEMENT OPERATIONS: TRENDS AND NEEDS whose first symptoms should be traced back to the 1980s with the deathofYugoslavia’sunifyingleaderTito.Hisdeathmarkedthebegin‐ ning of an intense economic decline and rising ethnic nationalism amongthesixrepublicscomposingYugoslavia.14Furthermore,theend oftheColdWarandthenoveltyoffreemultipartyelectionsopenedup newpossibilitiesforpopulistleadersinsearchforpower,whoexploit‐ ed ethnic tensions to enhance their political role. After the Slovenian and Croatian declarations of independence 25 June 1991 , Bosnia‐ Herzegovina, comprising mainly of Muslims 40% , Serbs 30% and Croats 17% ,decidedtofollowthesamepathanddeclareditsownin‐ dependenceinMarch1992.Becauseofthefearofbeingdominatedby theMuslimmajorityinaunifiedcountry,SerbsdidnotendorseBosni‐ an declaration and heralded the creation of “the Serbian Republic of BosniaandHerzegovina.”TheregularityofkillingsinSarajevoandoth‐ er provinces of Eastern Bosnia made violence escalating by mid‐April andMay1992. International community’s efforts to manage the conflict started soon,withtheEUandtheUNimposingeconomicsanctionsonthebel‐ ligerents.In1993,theUNSCdeclaredsomecitiesinBosnia‐Herzegovina to be “safe areas,”15 allowing NATO to protect civilians with the use of force in these cities. Intense fighting continued throughout 1994, with the Bosnian Serb protagonist of shelling safe areas on repeated occa‐ sions and causing the deaths of thousands of civilians.16 The turning points of the crisis occurred in July 1995, when 8,000 Bosnian Muslim weremassacredbytheBosnianSerbtroopsinSrebrenica.Inthepres‐ ence of a UN ultimatum and previous UNSC resolutions, NATO started OperationDeliberateForceon30August1995.Thisoperationwascon‐ ductedby16NATOalliesandresultedintwoweeksofintensebombing, 14 For this paragraph see Uppsala Conflict Data Program, Bosnia‐Herzegovina, http://www.ucdp.uu.se/gpdatabase/gpcountry.php?id 20. 15 UN Security Council Resolution 816/1993, 31 March 1993, http://www.un.org/ en/ga/search/view_doc.asp?symbol S/RES/816 1993 . 16 United Nations, Past peacekeeping operations: United Nations Protection Force‐ Former Yugoslavia, September 1996, http://www.un.org/en/peacekeeping/missions/ past/unprof_b.htm. 36 1. ITALY’S PARTICIPATION IN CRISIS MANAGEMENT OPERATIONS: FIGHTER AIRCRAFT’S ROLE mainly directed towards Bosnian Serb command and control installa‐ tionsandammunitionfacilities,17involvingatotalof3,515airsorties.18 According to the US Defense Department, Operation Deliberate Force provedtobeeffectiveinhelpingtoliftthesiegeofSarajevo,savinglives andcontributing greatly topavethe way foranegotiatedsettlement.19 The settlement, namely the General Framework Agreement for Peace, was signed on 21 November 1995 at the US Air Force base in Dayton, Ohio. NATO air operation and the following Dayton agreement can be considered“theresultofapurposefulU.S.strategyofcoercivediploma‐ cyputintoplacefromearly1994onward.”20Thisstrategycomprisedof several elements, including military, economic and diplomatic types of intervention:maintenanceofeconomicsanctionsagainstSerbianleader SlobodanMilosevic,covertarmingofBosnianMuslimandCroattroops, limitedairstrikesasaformofwarning,andtheapplicationofdecisive useofforcethroughairpower,finallypairedwithagroundoffensiveby CroatandMuslimforces.Hence,thiscoercivediplomacywasaimed“to breaktheSerbparty’sterritorialdominanceinsideBosnia‐Herzegovina and create a balance on the ground propitious to a negotiated out‐ come.”21 In the implementation phase, a strong NATO Implementation Force IFOR replacingUNtroopswasdeployedinBosnia‐Herzegovina toverifytheexecutionoftheagreement’smilitaryprovisions,whilethe HighRepresentativeoftheInternationalCommunityinBosniaandHer‐ zegovina,namelyCarlBildt,wasappointedtosupervisetherealization of the civilian elements of Dayton.22 In 1996, the Stabilization Force 17NATOAlliedCommandOperation, NATO’sOperations1949‐Present,http://www. aco.nato.int/resources/21/NATO%20Operations,%201949‐Present.pdf. 18RyanC.Hendrickson,“CrossingtheRubicon”,in NATOReview,No.3/2005 Sum‐ mer 2005 , http://www.nato.int/docu/review/2005/Combating‐Terrorism/Crossing‐ Rubicon/EN/index.htm. 19 Global Security, Military Operations, Operation Deliberate Force, http://www. globalsecurity.org/military/ops/deliberate_force.htm. 20R.CraigNation, WarintheBalkans 1991‐2002 ,Carlisle,StrategicStudiesInsti‐ tute, August 2003, p. 193, http://www.strategicstudiesinstitute.army.mil/pubs/dis‐ play.cfm?pubID 123. 21Ibid. 22UppsalaConflictDataProgram,Bosnia‐Herzegovina,cit. 37 THE ROLE OF ITALIAN FIGHTER AIRCRAFT IN CRISIS MANAGEMENT OPERATIONS: TRENDS AND NEEDS SFOR replaced IFOR, and later continued its peace‐keeping mission underNATOcommanduntil2004andthenunderEUcommand Opera‐ tionAlthea . In this context, Italy contributed to all NATO missions conducted in Bosnia‐Herzegovinautilizingavastvarietyofplatformsincludingfight‐ eraircraft. Operation Deny Flight, lasting from 12 April 1993 to 20 December 1995,wasaimedathinderinganymilitaryoperationintheskiesover Bosnia‐Herzegovina by enforcing a No‐Fly Zone NFZ , in compliance with UNSC resolution 816/1993. For the first time in NATO history, OperationDenyFlightfeaturedacombatoperationinwhichfourBos‐ nianSerbfighter‐bomberwhereshutdownbyAlliedaircraftpatrolling the NFZ.23 For almost three years, Italy took part to Deny Flight mis‐ sionswithTornadoand AMXfighter aircraft,whichcollected543sor‐ ties and 1,288 flight hours.24 In addition, Italy provided an extremely valuable logistical support to NATO units deployed on Italian military bases. Likewise, Italian armed forces also contributed to NATO Operation Sharp Guard from 12 April 1993 to 20 December 1995, to support UN maritimeembargoaimingtostopweapons’importationbythecombat‐ ants. In the operation, 8 Tornado reinforced Italian Maritime Units’ presence in the Adriatic Sea, racking up 230 sorties and 267 flight hours.25 From30 Augustto20 September1995,theItalianAirForcewasem‐ ployedalsoinOperationDeliberateForce,26with8Tornado,6AMX,one Boeing707Tanker,oneC‐130andfourG‐222.27Asstatedbefore,Oper‐ 23NATOAlliedCommandOperation,NATO’sOperations1949‐Present,cit. 24ItalianAirForce, OperazioniInternazionali, Jugoslavia 1999 ,http://www.aero‐ nautica.difesa.it/Operazioni/Internazionali/Pagine/Jugoslavia.aspx. 25DataprovidedbytheItalianAirForce’sstatisticaldivision. 26Bombingsbeganbetweenthe30 andthe31AugustwithOperationDeadeye.The operation paused between the 1 and the 5 September and then restarted again under thenameof“OperationDeliberateForce”,followingtheBosnianSerbfailedattemptto complywithUNresolutions. 27 Hellenic Resources Network, Operation Deliberate Force. Summary Data, 15 No‐ vember1995,http://www.hri.org/docs/nato/summary.html. 38 1. ITALY’S PARTICIPATION IN CRISIS MANAGEMENT OPERATIONS: FIGHTER AIRCRAFT’S ROLE ation Deliberate Force was initiated with the intent to protecting UN “safe areas,” which came under attack by Bosnian Serbian militias de‐ spite UNSC resolutions. In particular, Allied aircraft were tasked to hit anyartillery i.e.tank,mortar,etc enteringa40kmlargecirclearound the cities.28 Of the total of 3,515 sorties flown, 2,470 were penetrating sorties,includingattackson48BosnianSerbiantargets,whereasofthe 1,026bombsdropped,708werePrecisionGuidedMunitions PGM and 318 non‐precision munitions. Italian fighter conducted 26 sorties, amountingto41flyinghours.29 From6December1995to20 December1996,Italyalsoparticipated in Operation Decisive Endeavour in support of NATO Operation Joint Endeavour. In this operation, Italy backed NATO’s first peace‐keeping mission,theImplementationForce IFOR ,whichwastoimplementthe military aspects of the Dayton Agreements. Italy contributed with 8 Tornado and 6 AMX. The fighter aircraft deployed amounted for 1,250 sortiesand3,150flighthours.30 Finally,followingtheendofOperationJointEndeavour,theItalian Air Force was involved in Operation Deliberate Guard in support of Operation Joint Guard 21 December 1996‐11 June 1998 . In this op‐ eration, Italian aircraft carried out 2,974 sorties and 7,227 hours of flight.31 Overall, Italy provided the indispensable logistical footprint for NATOoperationsinBosnia‐Herzegovina,withapeakof350alliedair‐ craft hosted in the basis of Rimini, Piacenza, Ghedi, Brindisi and Vil‐ lafranca.32 28Interviewdated11December2013. 29DataprovidedbytheItalianAirForce’sstatisticaldivision. 30ItalianAirForce,OperazioniInternazionali,Jugoslavia 1999 ,cit. 31DataprovidedbytheItalianAirForce’sstatisticaldivision. 32Interviewdated11December2013. 39 THE ROLE OF ITALIAN FIGHTER AIRCRAFT IN CRISIS MANAGEMENT OPERATIONS: TRENDS AND NEEDS OPERATIONDENYFLIGHT Generalinformation(April1993‐December1995) CoalitionForces33 ChainofCommand UNSecurityCouncil Resolution Belgium,Canada,Denmark, France,Germany,Italy,the Netherlands,Norway, Spain,Turkey,UKandthe US NATO Yes Italiancontribution (April1993‐December1995)34 Aircraft Sorties FlightHours Tornado,AMX 543 1,288 OPERATIONSHARPGUARD Generalinformation(June1993‐October1996) CoalitionForces35 ChainofCommand UNSecurityCouncil Resolution Belgium,Canada,Denmark, France,Germany,Italy,the Netherlands,Norway, Spain,UKandtheUS NATO Yes Italiancontribution (April1993‐December1995)36 Aircraft Sorties FlightHours 8Tornado 230 267 33 Hellenic Resources Network, NATO Operation Deny Flight, 15 September 1995, http://www.hri.org/news/misc/misc‐news/1995/95‐09‐15.misc.html; Canadian Forc‐ es‐DirectorateofHistoryandHeritage, OperationsDatabase:DenyFlight,http://www. cmp‐cpm.forces.gc.ca/dhh‐dhp/od‐bdo/di‐ri‐eng.asp?IntlOpId 158. 34ItalianAirForce,Operazioniinternazionali:Jugoslavia 1999 ,cit. 35 NATO‐IFOR, NATO/WEU Operation Sharp Guard, 2 October 1996, http://www. nato.int/ifor/general/shrp‐grd.htm. 36ItalianAirForce,Operazioniinternazionali:Jugoslavia 1999 ,cit. 40 1. ITALY’S PARTICIPATION IN CRISIS MANAGEMENT OPERATIONS: FIGHTER AIRCRAFT’S ROLE OPERATIONDELIBERATEFORCE Generalinformation(August1995‐September1995) CoalitionForces37 ChainofCommand UNSecurityCouncil Resolution US(65.9%),UK(9.3%) France(8.1%),theNether‐ lands(5.6%),Spain(3.4%), NATO,NAEW(2.7%),Tur‐ key(2.2%),Germany (1.7%),Italy(1%) NATO Yes Italiancontribution (August1995‐September1995) Aircraft38 Sorties39 FlightHours 8Tornado,6AMX 26 41 OPERATIONDECISIVEENDEAVORINSUPPORTOFJOINTENDEAVOR Generalinformation(December1995‐December1996) CoalitionForces40 ChainofCommand UNSecurityCouncil Resolution Belgium,Canada,Denmark, France,Germany,Italy,the Netherlands,Norway, Spain,Turkey,UKandthe US NATO Yes Italiancontribution (December1995‐December1996) Aircraft41 Sorties FlightHours Tornado,AMX 1,250 3,150 37GlobalSecurity, MilitaryOperations:OperationDeliberateForce,cit.;JohnA.Tir‐ pak, “Deliberate Force”, in Air Force Magazine, Vol. 80, No. 10 October 1997 , http://www.airforcemag.com/MagazineArchive/Pages/1997/October%201997/1097d eliberate.aspx. 38HellenicResourcesNetwork,OperationDeliberateForce.SummaryData,cit. 39DataprovidedbytheItalianAirForce’sstatisticaldivision. 40CanadianForces‐DirectorateofHistoryandHeritage, OperationsDatabase:Deci‐ sive Endeavor, http://www.cmp‐cpm.forces.gc.ca/dhh‐dhp/od‐bdo/di‐ri‐eng.asp?Intl OpId 154. 41ItalianAirForce,Operazioniinternazionali:Jugoslavia 1999 ,cit. 41 THE ROLE OF ITALIAN FIGHTER AIRCRAFT IN CRISIS MANAGEMENT OPERATIONS: TRENDS AND NEEDS OPERATIONDELIBERATEGUARDINSUPPORTOFJOINTGUARD Generalinformation(December1996‐June1998) CoalitionForces42 ChainofCommand UNSecurityCouncil Resolution Belgium,Canada,Denmark, France,Germany,Italy,the Netherlands,Norway, Spain,Turkey,UKandthe US NATO Yes Italiancontribution(December1996‐June1998) Aircraft Sorties FlightHours Tornado,AMX 2,974 7,227 1.3 KOSOVO (1999) Another civil war erupted in Yugoslavia in June 1998 in Kosovo, a SouthernprovinceofSerbia.Severalcausescanbeattributedtotheini‐ tiationofhostilities.“Theneighboureffect”playedcertainlyamajorrole in the onset of violence, as the previous wars in the region spread re‐ gionalinstability,whichincreasinglyfedtheraisingnationalismsofthe KosovarandtheSerbianethnicitiesinKosovo.Moreover,sinceSerbian independence in 1878, tensions based on ethnic affiliation fuelled mis‐ perceptionsandbrutalitiesbetweentheAlbaniansandtheSerbs.43The latter also depicted the territory of Kosovo as “the holy land”, where their ancestries had fought the renowned “Battle of Kosovo” and from where the Kosovar had to be expelled.44 In this already troublesome context,politicalandeconomicgrievancesalsotriggeredastrongsense 42CanadianForces‐DirectorateofHistoryandHeritage, OperationsDatabase:Delib‐ erateGuard,http://www.cmp‐cpm.forces.gc.ca/dhh‐dhp/od‐bdo/di‐ri‐eng.asp?IntlOpId 159. 43ChristopherCviic,Reviewof“Kosovo1945‐2005”,in InternationalAffairs,Vol.81, No.4 July2005 ,pp.851‐860. 44 Michael E. Salla, “Traveling the Full Circle: Serbia’s ‘Final Solution’ to the Kosovo Problem”,inJournalofMuslimMinorityAffairs,Vol.18,No.2 October1998 ,pp.229‐240. 42 1. ITALY’S PARTICIPATION IN CRISIS MANAGEMENT OPERATIONS: FIGHTER AIRCRAFT’S ROLE ofresentmentamongtheKosovarpopulation.Intheend,SerbianPresi‐ dent Slobodan Milosevic suspended in 1990 the constitutional amend‐ mentwhichhadgivenKosovoequalautonomywiththeotherrepublics inYugoslavia. SkirmishesbetweentheKosovoLiberationArmy KLA andtheSer‐ bian troops began in 1996, although an open civil war erupted only in 1998, after the killing of 56 Albanians in the village of Prezak, in the Drenicaregion.45Theviolentescalationoftheconflictmountedconcern intheinternationalcommunity,whichsoughttoregulateitbyimposing sanctions and an arms embargo on Serbia.46 The US made Milosevic agreeonaceasefireinOctober1998,butthesituationcrashedsoonand, after the massacre of 45 civilians in Racak, the ceasefire was dead and gone.47InJanuary1999,aconferencewasheldatChâteaudeRambouil‐ let France by the Contact Group US, Russia, UK, France, Italy and Germany withthepurposeofsittingKosovarandSerbstogetheratthe same table to negotiate a solution to the dispute. After fifteen days of consultation,theKosovaracceptedthefinalsettlementproposedbythe ContactGroup.However,sinceNATOwouldhaveenjoyedfreeaccessto the entire territory of Serbia during the implementation, the Serbian governmentdecidednottosigntheagreement. Afterthefailureofdiplomatictalks,NATOdecidedtointervenemili‐ tarilyintheconflict,inspiteoftheabsenceofanadhocauthorizationby theUNSC.Kosovo’saircampaign,namelyOperationAlliedForce,began onMarch24andconsistedof78daysofintensebombing.Accordingto NATO, the air campaign was launched “to halt the humanitarian catas‐ trophethatwasthenunfoldinginKosovo.Thedecisiontointervenefol‐ lowedmorethanayearoffightingwithintheprovinceandthefailureof international efforts to resolve the conflict by diplomatic means.”48 In doingso,NATOmeantalsotoavoidthedestabilizationofSouthEastern 45 Uppsala Conflict Data Program, Serbia Yugoslavia , http://www.ucdp.uu.se/gp database/gpcountry.php?id 171. 46Ibid. 47HowardClark,CivilResistanceinKosovo,LondonandSterling,PlutoPress,2000. 48 NATO, The Kosovo Air Campaign, 5 March 2012, http://www.nato.int/cps/el/ natolive/topics_49602.htm. 43 THE ROLE OF ITALIAN FIGHTER AIRCRAFT IN CRISIS MANAGEMENT OPERATIONS: TRENDS AND NEEDS Europe and stop the displacement of refugees in neighbouring coun‐ tries. Finally, the credibility of the Alliance was at stake too, once the threatoftheuseofforcehadbeenwavedduringtheentirenegotiation process. These goals were developed into a military strategy which aimedtoforcetheSerbianforcesoutofKosovo,tostoptherepression of the Kosovars and to minimize Western casualties and the loss of friendlyaircraft.49Inthefirstdaysofthewar,NATOconcentrateditsef‐ fort in destroying Serbian air defense system. Nonetheless, after ten daysofaircampaign,resultswerefarfrombeingenthusiastic,asSerbi‐ andefenceshadnotbeenseriouslydamagedbyNATO’smissilesandMi‐ losevicdidnotappeartobemorewillingtonegotiate.50Atthebeginning ofApril,NATOdecidedtomodifyitsstrategyandstartedtotargetSer‐ bian economic and strategic lines of communication and to cut off its energy supplies. Furthermore, NATO began to cooperate with KLA troops on the ground to challenge the Serbs directly in Kosovo.51 This change in strategy brought the expected results, as “costs associated withintensedailybombingeffortsandthegradualaccrualofcostsover time”52 forced Milosevic to accept the final settlement. Besides the air campaign,themediation rolebytheinternationalcommunity wasalso essentialtoterminatetheconflict,53asmilitaryactionanddiplomaticef‐ forts were strictly intertwined. The civil war officially terminated in June 1999, following the Military Technical Agreement between NATO and Serbia 9 June 1999 and the UN Security Council resolution 1244/1999. Since 1999, the NATO Kosovo force KFOR has been de‐ ployedinKosovowithpeace‐keepingandstabilizationpurposes,backed 49DanielL.BymanandMatthewC.Waxman,“KosovoandtheGreatAir Power De‐ bate”, in International Security, Vol. 24, No. 4 Spring 2000 , pp. 5‐38, http://belfer‐ center.ksg.harvard.edu/publication/428; Susan H. Allen and Tiffany Vincent, “Bombing toBargain?TheAirWarfor Kosovo”,in ForeignPolicyAnalysis,Vol.7,No.1 January 2011 ,pp.1‐26. 50IISS,“NATO’scampaigninYugoslavia”,in StrategicComments,Vol.5,No.3 April 1999 ,pp.1‐4. 51Ibid. 52SusanH.AllenandTiffanyVincent,“BombingtoBargain?…”,cit. 53Ibid.SeealsoEfirdBrianetal.,“NegotiatingPeaceinKosovo”,in InternationalIn‐ teractions,Vol.26,No.2 2000 ,pp.153‐178. 44 1. ITALY’S PARTICIPATION IN CRISIS MANAGEMENT OPERATIONS: FIGHTER AIRCRAFT’S ROLE upbyanEUoperation–EULEXKosovo–tosupportthedevelopmentof theKosovarState’snewinstitutions. In Operation Allied Force, from 24 March to 10 June 1999, Italy in‐ tervened with approximately 50 aircraft, including F‐104, Tornado, AMX, and AV‐8B. In particular, Tornado and AMX platforms achieved 1,022sortiesand2,828flighthours,54whereas6AV‐8Bdeployedonthe Cavour carrier realized 50 sorties for 75 flight hours.55 Overall, the quantitative and qualitative effort of the Italian forces was highly re‐ garded, as Italy was the third largest contributor of aircraft and the fourthlargestforthenumberofairsorties,excludingtheUS.56Liketheir German counterparts, the Italian Tornados, in the Electronic Combat Reconnaissance ECR version, were “the shooters,”57 generally de‐ ployedinSuppressionofEnemyAirDefenses SEAD missionsandem‐ ployingAGM‐88HighSpeedAnti‐RadiationMissile HARM missilesto targetSerbianobjectives.Usually,Italianaircrafthadtopenetrateene‐ my air space, locate radars and Surface‐to‐Air Missiles SAM systems and destroy them. These missions were conducted at night and during theday,inthehardestmeteorologicalconditions,withtheoverallscope toachieveairsuperiorityandallowbomberaircrafttohitstrategicob‐ jectivesafterwards.58TheAMXaircraftalsohadanimportantroleintac‐ ticalsupportandbattlefieldAirInterdiction AI .59Althoughperforming well also in the presence of possible attacks, AMX usually conducted missionswithinconsistentSerbthreatandabove15,000feetofaltitude. Departing from the Italian bases of Gioia del Colle and Amendola, Tor‐ nadoandAMXdidnotparticipateinoperationsagainstSerbseconomic andstrategictargets,suchasenergyplantsandtheBelgradetelevision station, which raised criticisms about the use of force against non‐ 54DataprovidedbytheItalianAirForce’sstatisticaldivision. 55Interviewdated14March2014. 56 John E. Peters et al., European Contributions to Operation Allied Force. Implica‐ tions for Transatlantic Cooperation, Santa Monica, RAND Corporation, 2001, http:// www.rand.org/pubs/monograph_reports/MR1391.html. 57Ibid. 58“50°stormo:GhostWeasel”,inRivistaaeronautica,n.1/2000,pp.35‐47. 59AndreaNativi,“Jugoslavia:unamaratonamilitareperlaNATO”,inRID:Rivistaita‐ lianaDifesa,n.7/1999,pp.26‐33. 45 THE ROLE OF ITALIAN FIGHTER AIRCRAFT IN CRISIS MANAGEMENT OPERATIONS: TRENDS AND NEEDS military targets. Italian fighter carried on missions mainly to obstruct Serbian military forces threatening the Albanian population in Kosovo. InrelationtotheNavy’saircraft,ItalianAV‐8Bwereinitiallyexploitedto protect national maritime units deployed in the Adriatic sea, even though they were later used in air‐to‐surface engagement operations, thankstotheirinfraredtargetingtechnologies.60Finally,F‐104alsogave a contribution to NATO mission, especially in some emergency situa‐ tionswhentheyhadtosubstituteothercountries’aircraft.61 Additionally, other Italian and allies air capabilities were employed toprotectItaly’snationalterritoryfrompossibleretaliationfromtheSer‐ bianmilitary,i.e.throughmissileorairattacks,byconductingDefensive CounterAir DCA sortiesontheItalianeasternborder.Actually,Italyhas been one of the very few NATO members exposed to these risks in the post‐ColdWarperiod,becauseofitsgeographicalproximitytotheopera‐ tionaltheatre–andparticularlywiththeSerbianmilitarycapabilities. OPERATIONALLIEDFORCE Generalinformation(March1999‐June1999) CoalitionForces62 ChainofCommand UNSecurityCouncil Resolution US(80%),France(6%),UK (5%),Italy(3%),theNeth‐ erlands(3%),Germany (2%) NATO No Italiancontribution(March1999‐June1999) Aircraft63 Sorties FlightHours 22Tornado,6AMX,6F‐ 104ASA,6TornadoIDS,4 TornadoECR/IDS,4F‐104 ASA,6AV‐8B 1,072 2,903 60Interviewdated14March2014. 61Ibid. 62JohnE.Petersetal.,EuropeanContributionstoOperationAlliedForce,cit. 63Ibid. 46 1. ITALY’S PARTICIPATION IN CRISIS MANAGEMENT OPERATIONS: FIGHTER AIRCRAFT’S ROLE 1.4 AFGHANISTAN (2001-2014) The terrorist attacks in New York and Washington on 11 September 2001 caused a strong military response by the US administration headed by George W. Bush, appealing to the right of self‐defence againsttheperpetrators.Thisright,acknowledgedbyArt.51oftheUN Chart,waslaterrecognizedandreaffirmedbyresolutions1368/2001 and1373/2001,whichwereissuedbytheUNSCfollowingthemassa‐ cre of the World Trade Center. In particular, resolution 1368/2001 called“onallstatestoStatestoworktogetherurgentlytobringtojus‐ tice the perpetrators, organizers and sponsors of these terrorist at‐ tacks and stresses that those responsible for aiding, supporting or harbouring the perpetrators, organizers and sponsors of these acts willbeheldaccountable.”64 Operation Enduring Freedom begun on 7 October and took place primarilyinAfghanistan,wheretheTalibanregimehostedandsupport‐ edAlQaeda,aterroristorganizationledbyOsamaBinLaden.According toUSintentions,theoperationwasaimedtodestroyAlQaedaterrorist training camps and infrastructures, capture its leaders and ensure the cessationofterroristactivitiesinAfghanistan.65Sevencountriesactively contributedtotheoperation:Australia,Canada,France,Germany,Italy, NorwayandtheUnitedKingdom,whileseveralothercountriesoffered theirmilitarycooperationandsupport.66ThroughtheuseofAirPower andspecialforcesinsupportofAfghanopposition,theUSanditsallies managed to overthrow the Taliban regime from Kabul and began a country‐wide counter‐terrorism campaign targeting Al Qaeda affiliated combatants. In February 2007, the commands of Operation Enduring 64UNSecurityCouncilResolution1368/2001,12September2001,http://www.un. org/en/ga/search/view_doc.asp?symbol S/RES/1368 2001 . 65GeorgeW.Bush, AddresstoaJointSessionofCongressandtheAmericanPeople,20 September 2001, http://georgewbush‐whitehouse.archives.gov/news/releases/2001/ 09/20010920‐8.html. 66 Belgium, Bulgaria, Czech Republic, Denmark, Estonia, Grecia, Japan, Jordan, New Zealand,NorwayPakistan,Poland,Portugal,Romania,Slovakia,Slovenia.USDeptofDe‐ fense‐OfficeofPublicAffairs, InternationalContributionstotheWaragainstTerrorism, 14June2002,http://2001‐2009.state.gov/coalition/cr/fs/12753.htm. 47 THE ROLE OF ITALIAN FIGHTER AIRCRAFT IN CRISIS MANAGEMENT OPERATIONS: TRENDS AND NEEDS Freedom and of International Security Assistance Force ISAF were unitedunderthesameUScommander. Following the UN Security Council Resolutions 1378/2001 and 1386/200167ofDecember2001,ISAFwasdeployedinKabultoassistthe AfghanTransitionalAuthorityinpartnershipwiththeUnitedNationAs‐ sistance Mission in Afghanistan UNAMA . On August 2003, NATO took over ISAF’s command, and gradually extended the area of operation to covertheentirecountrybytheendof2006.Indoingso,forthefirsttime initshistory,NATOactivatedart.5oftheWashingtonTreatyoncollective defencetoinitiateamilitaryintervention.FiftycountrieshavejoinedIS‐ AF, including members and non‐members of the Atlantic Alliance. Since 2007, the mission has been under American command,68 with the US providing between two thirds and three quarters of ISAF troops.69 The strategyandthecharactersofthemission,aswellasthetasksfulfilledby ISAF,havechangedinthelast13yearsmainlyaccordingtoUSdecisions. However,theultimategoalofthemissionhassubstantiallyremainedthe same: to actively support the establishment of a peaceful and stable Af‐ ghanstatethatwillnotprovideanyhelptoAlQaedaoranyotherterror‐ ist groups threateningNATO members.70Political, diplomatic, economic, military and intelligence efforts have been undertaken to achieve this goal.Concerningthemilitaryefforts,particularlyfrom2008to2013,ISAF hasfocusedontwotypesofactivities:ononehand,tocounteranypossi‐ bleTalibaninsurgencybyundertakingcombatoperationsandpatrolac‐ tivities;ontheotherhand,tobuildupAfghannationalsecurityforcesby trainingandequippingthem.ISAF’smandateisgoingtoexpirebytheend of 2014, and NATO has already set the deployment of mission Resolute Support to continue training Afghan security forces without combat tasks ,whichishoweverexpectedtorelyonlessunitsthanISAF. 67FurtherUNSCResolutionshaverenovatedtheISAFmandateinAfghanistanover the years: 1413/2002, 1510/2003, 1563/2004, 1623/2005, 1659/2006, 1707/2006, 1444/2006,1746/2007,1817/2008,1890/2009,1917/2010,2041/2012,2069/2012. 68NATO‐ISAF,History,http://www.isaf.nato.int/history.html. 69 NATO‐ISAF, Troop numbers and contributions, updated 1 April 2014, http:// www.isaf.nato.int/troop‐numbers‐and‐contributions/index.php. 70Ibid. 48 1. ITALY’S PARTICIPATION IN CRISIS MANAGEMENT OPERATIONS: FIGHTER AIRCRAFT’S ROLE ItalycontributedtoOperationEnduringFreedomfrom18November 2001 to 3 December 2006.71 The Italian Navy sent a task force in the PersianGulfincludingtheGaribaldiCarrierwiththreesupportfrigates, fromwhich8AV‐8Bandadozenofcombathelicoptersoperated,witha total of 1,400 military personnel in theatre.72 In the first phase of the operation, the Alliance aircraft could not use any terrestrial airport to start or continue their missions. Indeed, in the meantime diplomatic agreementswerebeingsignedtoallowWesternaircrafttobedeployed fromtheregion,tacticalaircraftdeployedoncarriersweretheonlyfea‐ siblesolutiontokeepexecutingmissionsandproduced75%ofground‐ attacksforalongtimesincethemissionhadstarted.Inthisfirstperiod, aircraftwereaskedtorealize6to8hourslongmissionstoreachobjec‐ tives located up to 1,500 km from the carrier, at night and during the day.Thishasbeenmadepossiblethankstoair‐to‐airrefuellingfromal‐ lied tankers.73 In this phase, the Garibaldi carriers remained at sea for 87days,without anytechnicallayover,sailingmorethan 20,000 miles intheIndianOceanandpermittingAV‐8BtooperateintheAfghanthea‐ tre,giventheabsenceofterrestrialsupport.74TheItalianfighteraircraft fulfilledtaskssuchasairinterdiction,suppressionofenemyairdefence, CloseAirSupport,airdefence,interceptionofsuspectaircraft,recogni‐ tion,monitoringofseatrafficandcommunicationlines,seainterdiction and fleet protection.75 During this operation, 328 sorties have been completed, for a total of 860 flight hours.76 The Italian Navy AV‐8Bs showed a full interoperability with the rest of the coalition platforms andcarriedonmissionsin“combinedpackets”withAmericanandEng‐ 71ItalianChamberofDeputies‐ResearchService,“LamissioneISAFinAfghanistan”, in Documentazione e ricerche, No. 20 28 May 2013 , http://documenti.camera.it/leg 17/dossier/Testi/DI0030.htm. 72ItalianSenate,ComunicazionidelGovernosull’impiegodicontingentimilitariitaliani all’esteroinrelazioneallacrisiinternazionaleinattoeconseguentediscussione,7Novem‐ ber2001,http://www.senato.it/leg/14/BGT/Schede/ProcANL/ProcANLscheda6814.htm. 73Interviewdated14March2014. 74Ibid. 75ItalianSenate, ComunicazionidelGovernosull’impiegodicontingentimilitariita‐ lianiall’estero…,cit. 76Interviewdated14March2014. 49 THE ROLE OF ITALIAN FIGHTER AIRCRAFT IN CRISIS MANAGEMENT OPERATIONS: TRENDS AND NEEDS lishsimilarvehicles.Lateron,theyhavealsooperatedautonomouslyin groups of 2/4 aircraft, performing CAS and recognition missions with infraredprecisionmunitionssystems.77 WithrespecttoISAF,Italyhasbeenpartofthemissionsince itsin‐ ceptionandhasincreaseditsmilitarycontributionsfromafewhundred troopsin2002tonearly4,000in2009,inlinewiththerestofcontribu‐ tions from other NATO members. General Mauro Del Vecchio took commandofthewholeISAFbetween2005and2006,whileItalyhasled theRegionalCommandWestsinceitsestablishmentin2006.AsofFeb‐ ruary2014,Italyhad2,165unitsontheground,rankingfourthamong contributing nations.78 Italian troops have been deployed mainly be‐ tweenKabulandthewesternregion,intheHeratandFarahprovinces. Concerningaircapabilities,in2007theJointAirTaskForce JATF was establishedinKabulaspartoftheRegionalCommandWestandtheAir Component of ISAF. Comprised entirely of Italian personnel, the Task Force’sfirstaimistocoordinatethoseItalianassetsthatareunderthe directcontrolofNATOoperations.Theimportanceofthepresenceofair capabilities in Afghanistan stems from the extension and geography of theterritory,whichNATOrequiredtoprotectwithanumberofforcesof alltypes.79Asof2013,JATFwasarticulatedinthreeTaskGroups,each ofthemhavingdifferentplatformsattheirdisposal:AMX “BlackCats” , C‐130JandC‐27JJEDI “Albatros” andPredatorMQ1C “Astore” .80 InNovember2008,followingaNATOrequesttoimproveaerialsur‐ veillanceoftheAfghanterritory,4TornadosleftItalytoreachtheGer‐ manbaseofMazar‐eSharif,establishingthe“TaskGroupDevil.”Torna‐ dosweredeployedtorunIntelligence,SurveillanceandReconnaissance 77In2004eightpilotsfromtheItalianNavyhavebeenawardedoftheUnitedStates AirMedalfortheirvaluablecontributiontoOperationEnduringFreedom. 78NATO‐ISAF,Troopnumbersandcontributions,cit. 79 Italian Air Force, Operazioni internazionali: Afghanistan 2002 ‐ Joint Air Task Force JATF , http://www.aeronautica.difesa.it/Operazioni/Internazionali/afghanistan/ Pagine/JointAirTaskForce JATF _ENG.aspx. 80ItalianAirForce, News:Herat:AMXconduconoazionidisicurezza,26September 2013, http://www.aeronautica.difesa.it/News/Pagine/AfghanistangliAMXitalianiporta‐ noatermineloperazioneBallpark_260913.aspx. 50 1. ITALY’S PARTICIPATION IN CRISIS MANAGEMENT OPERATIONS: FIGHTER AIRCRAFT’S ROLE ISR activities,81providingonethirdofallphotographicmaterialinthe digital format among forces responsible for IRS missions and thus be‐ comingthefirstsupplierforthequantityandqualityofthematerialde‐ livered.82Thisresultwaspossiblethankstoanewreconnaissancesys‐ tem, namely the pod RecceLite, able to transfer in real time ISR infor‐ mation to stations on the ground, and to the support of Remotely Pi‐ lotedAerialSystems RPAS ,83suchasthePredatorsMQ1C.Bytheend ofDecember2009,Tornadosachievedmorethan350sorties,amount‐ ingtoabout900hoursofflightsandcovering800targets.84AMXvehi‐ clesfromthe52ndand31stWingsofAmendolareplacedTornadosin the same year, arriving in Herat in November to carry out similar ISR activities.85 Italian AMX aircraft were also involved in operations such as those named Shrimps Net in August 2012 and Ballpark in September 2013. During Operation Shrimps Net, Black Cats Task Group conducted 16 missions,eitherTacticalAirReconnaissance TAR orCloseAirSupport CAS ,totallingmorethan45flighthours.86OperationBallpark,coordi‐ natedandconductedentirelybyJATF,aimedatensuringoptimalsecuri‐ ty conditions against Improvised Explosive Device IED or attacks by the insurgents along one of the main Afghan highways, the Highway One.Inthiscontext,AMXreactedagainsthostileforcesoperatingalong the highway, exploiting images from Predators and information from 81 Gregory Alegi, “Quattro Tornado italiani partiranno lunedì per l’Afghanistan”, in DedaloNews,19November2008,http://www.dedalonews.it/it/?p 16935. 82 Italian Air Force, Operazioni internazionali: Afghanistan 2002 ‐ Joint Air Task Force JATF ,cit. 83RPASplatformsarealsoknownasUnmannedAerialVehicles UAV orUnmanned AerialSystems UAS ,andultimatelywiththename“Drones”. 84ItalianAirForce, News:RientratalabandieradiGuerradel6°Stormo,15Decem‐ ber 2009, http://www.aeronautica.difesa.it/News/Pagine/Rientro_Bandiera_Guerra_ Ghedi.aspx. 85 Italian Air Force, News: Quattro caccia AM‐X giunti ad Herat, 4 November 2009, http://www.aeronautica.difesa.it/News/Pagine/AM‐X_Herat.aspx. 86 Italian Air Force, News: Conclusa l’operazione ‘Shrimps Net’, 20 August 2012, http://www.aeronautica.difesa.it/News/Pagine/Conclusal%E2%80%99operazioneShri mpsNet.aspx. 51 THE ROLE OF ITALIAN FIGHTER AIRCRAFT IN CRISIS MANAGEMENT OPERATIONS: TRENDS AND NEEDS troopsontheground.87Inadditiontotheseoperations,AMXwerealso employed in more “assertive” type of missions, for instance when they targetedandhittwocommunicationsystemsusedbyinsurgentsinthe districtofBakwainDecember2012,88orwhentheydestroyedthreean‐ tennatowersusingGPS‐guidedmissilesintheprovinceofFarahinApril 2013.89UntilMay2013,AMXvehicleshavebeenengagedinmorethan 2,400 sorties in day and night operations, covering 6,300 targets and photographing several kilometers of the Afghan territory.90 On the whole,untilDecember2013,Italianfighterhavecontributed3,031sor‐ tiesand8,447flighthourstoISAFmission.91 OPERATIONENDURINGFREEDOM Generalinformation(2001‐2006) CoalitionForces ChainofCommand UNSecurityCouncil Resolution Italy,France,Netherlands, UK,US UnitedStates Yes Italiancontribution(November2001‐December2006) Aircraft Sorties FlightHours AV‐8B 328 860 87ItalianAirForce,News:Herat:AMXconduconoazionidisicurezza,cit. 88ItalianAirForce, News: Afghanistan:AMXdistruggonoantennedeiribelli,7July 2012, http://www.aeronautica.difesa.it/News/Pagine/AMXdell%E2%80%99Aeronauticadistr uggonodueantennedeiribelli.aspx. 89ItalianAirForce,News:Durocolpoallecomunicazionidegliinsorti,30April2013, http://www.aeronautica.difesa.it/News/Pagine/Afghanistandurocolpoallecomunicazio nidegliinsorti_300413.aspx. 90 Italian Air Force, News: Afghanistan: 7000 ore di volo per gli AMX, 6 May 2013, http://www.aeronautica.difesa.it/News/Pagine/ContinualaserieditraguardioperativiRC W.aspx. 91DataprovidedbytheItalianAirForce’sstatisticaldivision. 52 1. ITALY’S PARTICIPATION IN CRISIS MANAGEMENT OPERATIONS: FIGHTER AIRCRAFT’S ROLE OPERATIONISAF Generalinformation(2001‐ongoing) CoalitionForces ChainofCommand UNSecurityCouncil Resolution Italy,Germany,France,The Netherlands,UK,US92 NATO Yes Italiancontribution(2002‐ongoing) Aircraft Sorties FlightHours Tornado,AMX 3,031 8,477 1.5 LIBYA (2011) The reasons that led some NATO countries to plan and conduct a pro‐ longedaircampaigninLibyain2011arestillacontentiousissueandan object of studies and analysis by experts and jurists.93 France, the UK andtheUShadaleadingpoliticalroletoinitiatethemilitaryoperation, notwithstanding their different perspectives and political intents. The US military effort certainly was indispensable to launch the multina‐ tionaloperationandconductthefirstphaseofthecampaigninLibya.In thewarmupoftheoperations,13morenationsdecidedtojointhecoa‐ lition,thoughsomeofthem–includingItaly94–wereparticularlyscep‐ ticalaboutitslong‐termimplicationsonLibya’sstability.95Althoughthe time is not yet sufficiently ripe to draw final considerations, it seems 92Since2001around50countriescontributedtothemission.Butonlyfewcountries providedaircapabilitiesrelevantforthefocusofthisstudy.Formoreinformationsee NATO‐ISAF,Troopnumbersandcontributions,cit. 93See,amongothers,NatalinoRonzitti,“NATO’sInterventioninLibya:AGenuineAc‐ tion to Protect a Civilian PopulationinMortalDangeror anInterventionAimedatRe‐ gimeChange?”,inTheItalianYearbookofInternationalLaw,Vol.21,2011,pp.3‐21. 94“Libia:il“Colle”sostieneibombardamenti.Berlusconi:‘con laLegaètuttoapo‐ sto’”, in Corriere della Sera, 26 November 2011, http://www.corriere.it/politica/11_ aprile_26/napolitano‐libia‐frattini_a17bffc4‐6fea‐11e0‐9dd7‐595a41612a44.shtml. 95IanBlack,“ConcernedneighbourswarnagainstforeigninterventioninLibya”,in TheGuardian,2March2011,http://gu.com/p/2nfan/tw. 53 THE ROLE OF ITALIAN FIGHTER AIRCRAFT IN CRISIS MANAGEMENT OPERATIONS: TRENDS AND NEEDS thatthehumanitarianrationale,whichhascharacterizedtheinitiativeat the UN Security Council level, was an important factor, especially in termsoflegitimacyintheeyesofthepublicopinion.Howeverthiswas not the unique element, and maybe not even the most important one, explainingthemilitaryintervention.96 Officially, the military operations were undertaken in response to eventsoccurredduringtheLibyanrebellion,whichcameinthecontext of a wider unrest in the Middle East and North Africa. The insurgency started after a series of protests and revolts against the regime of Muammar Gaddafi in February 2011, partly inspired by the uprisings that brought down the governments of Libya’s neighbours, Egypt and Tunisia.Theprotests,particularlyintheBenghaziarea,escalatedintoan armed rebellion that spread across the country with the objective to overthrowtheincumbentgovernment. This situation caused the reaction of the UN Security Council on 26 February, which passed an initial resolution establishing an arms em‐ bargo, asset freeze and travel ban against Gaddafi and other high‐level members of the regime, while also referring the matter to the Interna‐ tionalCriminalCourtforfurtherinvestigation.97On17 March2011,the UNSC adopted resolution 1973, which authorized the use of force, in‐ cludingtheestablishmentofaNFZ,toprotectciviliansandareastarget‐ edbytheGaddafiloyalistforces.98 With respect to the military intervention, the UNSC Resolution 1973/2011: AuthorizedMemberStates,actingnationallyorthroughregional organizations or arrangements, to take all necessary measures to protect civilians and related populated areas under attack, including Benghazi. The resolution specifically excluded the establishmentofaforeignforceoranyotherforminanypartof theLibyanterritory. 96MarioArpino,“L’ItalianelleoperazioniinLibia”,in AffarInternazionali,6Decem‐ ber2011,http://www.affarinternazionali.it/articolo.asp?ID 1925. 97 Resolution 1970/2011, 26 February 2011, http://www.un.org/en/ga/search/ view_doc.asp?symbol S/RES/1970 2011 . 98 Resolution 1973/2011, 17 March 2011, http://www.un.org/en/ga/search/view_ doc.asp?symbol S/RES/1973 2011 . 54 1. ITALY’S PARTICIPATION IN CRISIS MANAGEMENT OPERATIONS: FIGHTER AIRCRAFT’S ROLE Called Members States of the Arab League to cooperate in the implementationoftheestablishedmeasures. Authorized the establishment of a NFZ in Libyan airspace. That flight ban would not apply to flights that had as their sole purposehumanitarianaid,theevacuationofforeignnationals,to enforcingthebanor“otherpurposesdeemednecessaryforthe benefitoftheLibyanpeople.” Authorized Member States to take all necessary measures to enforcecompliancewiththebanonflightsimposed. InordertoimplementtheUNSCResolution1973,on19MarchaUS‐led operation, named Operation Odyssey Dawn, started with French and Britishsupport.Thegoalwastwofold:1 preventingfurtherattacksby loyalist forces on Libyan citizens and opposition groups, especially in andaroundBenghazi;2 degradingtheloyalistforces’capabilitytore‐ sisttheNFZauthorizedbytheUNSCresolution.99Inthemeanwhile,po‐ liticalnegotiationsstartedtoshifttheoperationfroma“Coalitionofthe Willing” to a NATO integrated military command. On 23 March, NATO assumed command of military operations to enforce the UN arms em‐ bargo. The transfer of command responsibility for the NFZ was agreed on24 March,whilethedecisiontotransfercommandandcontrolforall militaryoperationsin Libyawastakenon27 March.Asaresult,NATO formallyassumedtheresponsibilityofthere‐namedOperationUnified Protector on 31 March 2011. Operation Unified Protector ended on 31 October2011,afterthecollapseoftheloyalistforcesandLibyanincum‐ bentgovernment.100Asof2013,neitherNATO,norEUstabilizationmis‐ siononthegroundhasfollowedtheaircampaign. Italy’scontributiontooperationsinLibyahasbeenthree‐fold.First, in a chronological order, the Italian Navy, including the Navy Aviation, led NATO naval operation to enforce the UN arms embargo, including 99USDeptofDefense, DoDNewsBriefingbyViceAdm.GortneyfromthePentagonon Lybia Operation Odyssey Dawn, 19 March 2011, http://www.defense.gov/transcripts/ transcript.aspx?transcriptid 4786. 100 Italian Air Force, News: Task Group Air di Trapani Birgi, 31 August 2011, http://www.aeronautica.difesa.it/News/Pagine/Raggiuntidueimportantitraguardiperil TaskGroupAirBirgi_310811.aspx. 55 THE ROLE OF ITALIAN FIGHTER AIRCRAFT IN CRISIS MANAGEMENT OPERATIONS: TRENDS AND NEEDS operationsinLibyancoastalwaterssubjecttomilitarythreatsfromloy‐ alistforces. Second,theuseofmilitarybasesontheItalianterritorywascrucial tocarryontheairoperation,whichcouldnothavebeenpossiblewith‐ outsuchlargefootprintclosetotheoperationaltheatre.Asithappened duringNATOmissionsintheWesternBalkans,thisimpliedtheriskof retaliationbytheLibyanloyalistforcesagainstItaly,asitwasagainone ofthefewNATOmembersgeographicallyclosetotheoperationalthea‐ tre.ItalsoimpliedasignificantItalianeffortintermsofmanpowerand economic resources. The Italian air bases involved in military opera‐ tionswereAviano,Amendola,Decimomannu,GioiadelColle,Panteller‐ ia, Sigonella, and Trapani. Overall, 4,800 military personnel have been committed to provide a set of activities and services, from air traffic’s controltotechnicalassistanceontheground.Inparticular,Trapanimil‐ itarybasishosted14%ofthetotalcoalitionsorties.Italy’salsoprovid‐ ed the operation with “operational planners,” as they contributed to NATO command and control structure at all levels. Moreover, Italy hostedtheJointForceCommand JFC inNaples,whilecontributingat thetacticallevelwiththeCombinedAirOperationCentre5 COAC in PoggioRenatico. Third,giventhefocusofthisstudy,itisparticularlyimportanttolook aftertheactiveparticipationofItalianaircapabilitiestobothOperation OdysseyDawnandthenOperationUnifiedProtector.Overall,Italianair‐ craftconductedabout7%ofthetotalAlliedmissionsinLibyanskies,ac‐ countingforthelargestItalianAirForceoperationafterWorldWarII.101 The bulk of committed Italian air capabilities were fighter aircraft in‐ cludingF‐16,Eurofighter,TornadoandAMXbasedinTrapaniunderthe Birgi Air Task Group, as well as AV‐8B deployed on the Italian carrier Garibaldi.TankerssuchasKC‐130JandKC‐767AaswellasPredatorsB contributedtotheairpackages.102 Italianfighteraircraftexecuteddifferenttypesofmissions,including: 101 Italian Air Force, Operazioni Internazionali, Libia 2011 , http://www.aero‐ nautica.difesa.it/Operazioni/Internazionali/Pagine/Libia 2011 _eng.aspx. 102Ibid. 56 1. ITALY’S PARTICIPATION IN CRISIS MANAGEMENT OPERATIONS: FIGHTER AIRCRAFT’S ROLE a b c Suppression of Enemy Air Defenses SEAD . The Italian Air Forcewastheonlyairforce togetherwiththeAmericanone to carry out this type of mission, employing Tornados ECR from Piacenza Airbase’s 50th Wing. These aircraft are equipped with particularsystemsabletolocateairdefenceradaremissionsand to neutralize them by delivering air‐to‐surface AGM‐88 HARM missiles. These activities coerce opponents to deactivate their systems and allow friendly forces to enter the zone of the operationstoconducttheirownmissionwithoutthepossibility ofbeinghitbytheenemy.103DuringSEADoperations,Tornados operateas“FirstInLastOut,”astheymustbethefirstaircraftto reach the centre of gravity and the last to leave in order to protect friendly forces from the beginning until the end of the mission.104 DefensiveCounterAir DCA .DCAactivitiesconsistofpatroland air defence operations, which were performed by F‐16 fighter aircraft from the 37th Wing and Eurofighters from the 4th and 36th Wings. In particular, F‐16 and Eurofighters were deployed in support of NFZ over Libya to defend Allied aircraft from air and ground attacks, as well as to maintain air superiority.105 Moreover,Eurofighterswereemployedtosafeguard“HighValue Airborne Assets,” hence to escort tactical aircraft deployed in particularmissions.106 Offensive Counter Air OCA and Strike Coordination And Reconnaissance SCAR . The OCA envisaged air‐to‐surface attacks on prearranged ground targets, while SCAR aimed at “dynamic” targets in areas with high concentration of enemy 103Ibid. 104 Italian Air Force, News: Unified protector: le capacità di attacco dell’AM, 6 June 2011, http://www.aeronautica.difesa.it/News/Pagine/UnifiedProtectorlecapacit%C3%A0 diattaccodell%E2%80%99AeronauticaMilitare_060611.aspx. 105Ibid. 106 Italian Air Force, News: Unified Protector: 1000 ore di volo per l’Eurofighter, 15 June 2011, http://www.aeronautica.difesa.it/News/Pagine/operazioneunifiedprotectorl %E2%80%99f2000%E2%80%9Ctyphoon%E2%80%9Draggiungele1000oredivolo.aspx. 57 THE ROLE OF ITALIAN FIGHTER AIRCRAFT IN CRISIS MANAGEMENT OPERATIONS: TRENDS AND NEEDS d assets.Thesetypeofmissions,withasubstantialcontributionof AV‐8B,wereledbothbyTornadoIDSfromthe6thWingandAMX fromthe32ndand51stWings.AlltargetswereassignedbyNATO, afterverificationofcompliancetotheguidelinesestablishedby the political authority. Italian fighter launched more than 550 GPSandlaserguidedmissiles,includingGBU‐12,16,24,32,38, 48, EGBU‐24, and long range Storm Shadow cruise missile, havinga96%strikeaccuracy.107 Intelligence Surveillance Reconnaissance ISR . These missions were conducted by Tornado IDS initially, then by AMX fighter andAV‐8BwiththesupportofRPASsuchasPredatorsB.During these missions, Italian aircraft were tasked to acquire the necessary information on the ground to be used during air operations. In particular, Italian forces exploited the RecceLite electronic pods technology employed on Tornado and AMX to realizemorethan340,000high‐resolutionpictures,whichwere crucialforintelligenceactivities.108 ItalianAirforcefighterconductedoverall1,695sortiesand6,254flight hours.109Missionsweredistributedaccordingtothefollowingpercent‐ ages:DCA38%,ISR23%,OCA14%,SEAD8%,SCAR5%.110The8AV‐8B of the Navy carried out first DCA missions and OCA later, resulting in 418sortiesand1,001flighthours.111OperatingfromtheGaribaldicar‐ rier,AV‐8Bwerebasedatasafetydistanceof100milesfromtheLibyan shores,butclosertoaircraftoperatingfromItalianlandbasesandthus workingalsowithoutair‐to‐airrefuelling.Overall,fighteraircraftofthe ItalianArmyperformed2,113sortiesfor7,255flighthours.112 107Ibid. 108Ibid. 109DataprovidedbytheItalianAirForce’sstatisticaldivision. 110ItalianAirForce,Operazioniinternazionali:Libia 2011 ,cit. 111Interviewdated14March2014. 112DataprovidedbytheItalianAirForce’sstatisticaldivision. 58 1. ITALY’S PARTICIPATION IN CRISIS MANAGEMENT OPERATIONS: FIGHTER AIRCRAFT’S ROLE OPERATIONUNIFIEDPROTECTOR Generalinformation(March2011‐October2011) CoalitionForces113 ChainofCommand UNSecurityCouncil Resolution US(27%),France(21%), UK(11%),Italy(7%),Can‐ ada,Denmark,UnitedArab Emirates,Turkey,Qatar, Sweden,Belgium,Spain, TheNetherlands,Norway, Jordan,Greece NATO Yes Italiancontribution (March2011‐October2011) Aircraft Sorties FlightHours F‐16,Eurofighter,AV‐8B, Tornado,AMX 2,113 7,255 1.6 THE ROLE OF ITALIAN FIGHTER AIRCRAFT IN CRISIS MANAGEMENT OPERATIONS In the last 24 years, Italian fighter have been deployed in different cir‐ cumstances:inaninterstatewarlikeintheGulfwar,incivilconflictslike inBosnia‐Herzegovina,KosovoandLibyaandinafailedstatewithsome typicalconnotationsofinsurgencyandcivilwarlikeinAfghanistan. Considering the aforementioned 10 air operations,114 Italy has de‐ ployed its aircraft 90% following a UN Security Council resolution and 80% under NATO framework. This insight shows not only Italy’s deep integrationandcommitmenttothoseorganizations,butalsothestrong influence of a globalized international system which requires the man‐ agement of international crisis by the whole international community. 113 Italian Air Force, Operazioni internazionali: Libia 2011 , cit.; Mario Arpino, “L’ItalianelleoperazioniinLibia”,cit. 114 Desert Storm, Deny Flight, Sharp Guard, Deliberate Force, Decisive Endeavour, DeliberateGuard,AlliedForce,EnduringFreedom,UnifiedProtector,andInternational SecurityAssistanceForce ISAF . 59 THE ROLE OF ITALIAN FIGHTER AIRCRAFT IN CRISIS MANAGEMENT OPERATIONS: TRENDS AND NEEDS Indeed, Italy has devoted to international missions approximately 100 fighter aircraft, performed more than 13,000 sorties and flied around 36,000hoursinoperations. Italy’s operational participation in missions abroad has grown in qualitativeandquantitativetermsoverthelast24years.Startingfroma minor althoughimportantcontributiontoOperationDesertStorm,Ita‐ ly’sposturewasraisedinBosnia‐Herzegovina,KosovoandAfghanistan later. Finally, it increased substantially in the latest operation in Libya, where it conducted 7% of NATO air sorties and provided the Alliance withcrucialcommandandcontrolactivities,aswellaslogisticfootprint. Hence, and despite an economic situation which has left little room of manoeuvringforforeignpolicyconsiderations,Italyhasnotrenounced to deal with important security issues – although events and interna‐ tionalconstraintsseemtohaveshapedItalianinterventionsmorethana clearnationalstrategy. Intheend,Italianfighteraircrafthaveprovedtheirgreatversatility, performingawidevarietyoftasksindifferentconditionsandregionsof theworld.TheFirstGulfWarepitomizedseveralshortfallsandgaps,for example in terms of technologies, which have been successfully ad‐ dressed in the following two decades. In particular, Italian Air Force pursued an improvement of Precision Guided Munitions PGM , Elec‐ tronic Warfare Systems EWS , Air‐to‐Air Refuelling AAR , infrared sensors, weapons systems like AARM missiles, night vision, radio and communication systems up to Link 16.115 In Kosovo, and then in Libya even more, the progress achieved by Italian air capabilities have been proven by the increased quality and quantity of its allocated contribu‐ tionstocrisismanagementoperations.Thishasbeenepitomizedbythe factthatItalianAirForcehasbeentheonlyEuropeanpower,asidefrom theAmericans,tohaveconductedSEADmissionsinLibya,116andthatit has been one of the most effective suppliers of photographic material provided in ISR activities in Afghanistan.117 The Italian Navy has also 115Interviewdated11December2013. 116ItalianAirForce,Operazioniinternazionali:Libia 2011 ,cit. 2002 ‐ Joint Air Task 117 Italian Air Force, Operazioni internazionali: Afghanistan Force JATF ,cit. 60 1. ITALY’S PARTICIPATION IN CRISIS MANAGEMENT OPERATIONS: FIGHTER AIRCRAFT’S ROLE soughttoimproveandupgradeitsaero‐tacticalcomponent,forinstance thanks to the acquisition of the POD Litening II, in order to acquire an autonomoustargetingcapacity,whosebenefitshavebeenevidenttoIta‐ lyanditsalliesinthecontextofOperationEnduringFreedom.118 Table1.InternationalMissions(1990‐2013):anoverview Operation CoalitionForces Chainof Command UNSecurity Council Resolution DesertStorm 1990‐1991 US,UK,SaudiArabia,Kuwait,France, Italy,Bahrain United States Yes DenyFlight 1993‐1995 Belgium,Canada,Denmark,France, Germany,Italy,theNetherlands, Norway,Spain,Turkey,UK,US NATO Yes SharpGuard 1993‐1996 Belgium,Canada,Denmark,France, Germany,Greece,Italy,theNether‐ lands,Norway,Portugal,Spain, Turkey,UK,US NATO Yes DeliberateForce 1995 US 65.9% ,UK 9.3% France 8.1% ,theNetherlands 5.6% , Spain 3.4% ,NATO,NAEW 2.7% , Turkey 2.2% ,Germany 1.7% , Italy 1% NATO Yes DecisiveEndeavour Belgium,Canada,Denmark,France, 1995‐1996 Germany,Italy,theNetherlands, Norway,Spain,Turkey,UK,US NATO Yes DeliberateGuard 1996‐1998 Belgium,Canada,Denmark,France, Germany,Italy,theNetherlands, Norway,Spain,Turkey,UK,US NATO Yes AlliedForce 1999 US 80% ,France 6% ,UK 5% , Italy 3% ,Netherlands 3% , Germany 2% NATO No EnduringFreedom US,UK,Italy,France,theNetherlands 2001‐2006 United States Yes ISAF 2001‐2014 US,UK,Italy,Germany,France, theNetherlands,Canada NATO Yes UnifiedProtector 2011 US 27% ,France 21% ,UK 11% , Italy 7% ,Canada,Denmark,United ArabEmirates,Turkey,Qatar,Swe‐ den,Belgium,Spain,theNetherlands, Norway,Jordan,Greece NATO Yes 118Interviewdated14March2014. 61 THE ROLE OF ITALIAN FIGHTER AIRCRAFT IN CRISIS MANAGEMENT OPERATIONS: TRENDS AND NEEDS Table2.Italiancontributiontointernationalmissions(1990‐2013) Operations Aircraft Sorties Flying hours DesertStorm 8Tornado 2,326 4,503 DenyFlight 4Tornado,4AMX 543 1,288 SharpGuard 8Tornado 230 267 DeliberateForce 8Tornado,6AMX,AV‐8B 26 41 DecisiveEndeavour Tornado,AMX 1,250 3,150 DeliberateGuard Tornado,AMX 2,974 7,227 AlliedForce 22TornadosECR/IDS,6AMX, 6F‐104ASA,6TornadoIDS, 4TornadoECR/IDS,4F‐104ASA 1,072 2,903 EnduringFreedom AV‐8B 328 860 ISAF 4Tornado,4AMX, AV‐8B 3,031 8,477 UnifiedProtector F‐16,Eurofighter,Tornado,AMX, AV‐8B 2,113 7,255 64Tornado,20AMX,6F‐104,F‐16, AV‐8B,Eurofighter 13,893 35,971 Total 62 1. ITALY’S PARTICIPATION IN CRISIS MANAGEMENT OPERATIONS: FIGHTER AIRCRAFT’S ROLE 63 2. Current and future air operations: doctrine and trends Italy’suseoffighteraircraftinthepost‐ColdWarperiodhasgonehand inhandwithdevelopmentsinAirPowerdoctrine.Thischapteroutlines doctrine’s fundamentals and trends stemming from the recent opera‐ tional experience,1 in order to understand current and possible future waystoutilizeaircapabilitiesincludingfighteraircraft. 2.1 AIR POWER: DOCTRINE’S FUNDAMENTALS Intheory,AirPowerdoctrineevolvesbyconsideringbestpracticesre‐ sultingfromoperationalexperiences,aswellasinnovationsintechnical andconceptualterms,andbyradicalchangesoccurringintheinterna‐ tionalsystem.2 1 This chapter partly draws from the extensive work conducted by IAI, Fondation pour la Recherche Stratégique FRS and Royal Aeronautical Society RAeS , in 2012 within the IAI‐led research project “Landscaping – Identifying the mismatch between requirementsandplannedcapabilities:AirOperations”. 2Formoredetailedinformationseealso:NATOAlliedJointPublication, JointAirand Space Operations Doctrine, 2002; NATO Allied Joint Publication, Joint Operations Doc‐ trine, 2010; Christopher Harper, “Challenges for NATO Air & Space Power”, in JAPCC Journal, No. 14 Autumn 2011 , pp. 33‐37, http://www.japcc.org/publications/journal/ Journal/20111014_‐_Journal_Ed‐14_web.pdf; EU Military Staff,DraftconceptforAirOp‐ erationsinsupportoftheEUCSDP,2011;USAirForce, AirForceBasicDoctrine,Organi‐ zationandCommand.AirForceDoctrineDocument1,14October2011,http://www.au. af.mil/au/cadre/aspc/l002/pubs/afdd1.pdf; Denis Mercier, “Thinking about Air and Space Power in 2025: Five Guiding Principles”, in Air & Space Power Journal, Vol. 26, No.3 May‐June2012 ,pp.16‐30;JohnD.Jogerst,“AirpowerTrends2010:TheFutureis 65 THE ROLE OF ITALIAN FIGHTER AIRCRAFT IN CRISIS MANAGEMENT OPERATIONS: TRENDS AND NEEDS AirPowerisdefinedasthecapacitytoprojectpowerfromtheairto influencethebehaviourofpeopleorthecourseofevents.Itisanessen‐ tialelementinalmostallmilitaryoperations,whichexploitsallaspects oftheEarth’satmospheresuchasheightandreachoverbothlandand sea. These key characteristics, coupled with increasingly capable tech‐ nology, makes Air Power a flexible, rapid, 24/7 available tool to influ‐ ence the operating environment – thus ensuring Air Power’s “virtual presence” throughout the entire operation, thanks to its extreme de‐ ployability.Asaresult,AirPowercanbeconsideredasamultiplierforce fordeployedlandandmaritimemilitaryforces. Furthermore, the utilization of air capabilities is not limited to any particularkindofoperation,asAirPower’skeycharacteristicspermitto achieve strategic, operational or tactical results, in a joint or separate fashion,rangingfromdiplomaticwarningstotheactualuseofforce.The flexibility,reachandabilitytoconcentrateforcemakeAirPowerableto concurrentlyconductorsupportdifferentlinesofoperationagainstdif‐ ferent targets. Moreover, Air Power can be switched from one role or objective to another, within or between operational theatres. Conse‐ quently, it can be rapidly adapted to meet evolving operational re‐ quirements. In addition, Air Power provides the means to take ad‐ vantageofbothfriendlystrengthsandopponentweaknesses.Infact,it maydirectsymmetricalactionswheretheopposingforcesandfriendly forces aresimilar,i.e.airdefenceversusairattack,orit may utilizeits strengthsagainsttheopponent’svulnerabilities,forexamplebyattack‐ ing Command and Control C2 architecture and/or critical infrastruc‐ turessuchasenergygrids. AlthoughbeingpredominantlydeliveredbyAirForce,AirPoweralso includes aerial capabilities provided by other services, even by civilian aviation.Atthesametime,AirPowerismadenotonlybyplatformsand weaponsystems,butitcruciallyreliesontrainedpersonnel,aswellas Closer Than You Think”, in Air & Space Power Journal, Vol. 23, No. 2 Summer 2009 , pp. 101‐102, http://faculty.nps.edu/nlmiller/docs/sum09.pdf; Basilio Di Martino, “Air PowerandTechnology:ATentativeApproachtotheYear2025andBeyond”,inRUSIDe‐ fence Systems, 23 June 2010, pp. 56‐60, https://www.rusi.org/publications/defence‐ systems/ref:A4C221670ABFA3. 66 2. CURRENT AND FUTURE AIR OPERATIONS: DOCTRINE AND TRENDS oninfrastructurestooperatefrom,andsparepartsvitaltomaintainits useeffectivelyandefficiently. Overall,itispossibletoidentifyfourmainrolesinwhichAirPower finds its concrete application: Control of the Air; Intelligence, Surveil‐ lance, Target Acquisition, Reconnaissance ISTAR ; Engagement; Air Mobility. The first three roles are particularly relevant in relation to fighteraircraft. AchievingControloftheAirmeanshavingthefreedomtouseaspe‐ cific volume of airspace within a given period of time for its own pur‐ poses,while,ifnecessary,denyingitsusetoothers.3Thiscontrolisab‐ soluteincaseofAirSupremacy.InthecaseofAirSuperiority,itrather impliesthedegreeofdominanceintheairbattle‐spacethatpermitsto conductmilitaryoperationsatanygiventime,withoutprohibitiveinter‐ ferencebyopposingair forces.AirParityisthelowestlevelofcontrol, meaningcontroloftheskiesonlyin the airspaceabove friendlytroop positions.Vice‐versa,AirDenialismaintainingalevelofoperationsthat, althoughconcedingAirSuperioritytotheopponent,preventstheenemy toachieveAirSupremacy.OperationstoachieveControloftheAirmay beoffensive OffensiveCounter‐Air and/ordefensive DefensiveCoun‐ ter‐Air, which includes air and missile defence . Offensive Counter Air OperationsaimtoobtainControloftheAirbydestroying,degradingor disrupting the air capabilities of the adversary that is Suppression of Enemy Air Defenses SEAD . Defensive Counter‐Air DCA consists of active and passive actions aimed to protect friendly forces and non‐ combatantpersonnelintheatre. ISTARmissionscontributetoallintelligenceproductsbysupporting planning activities and decision making of all air operations’ phases. They improve the ability to gain and maintain information superiority, andaimtoachieveSituationalAwareness SA thatishavingafullcom‐ prehension of the operational situation in theatre. For example, ISTAR air capabilities are, together with space Earth Observation EO sys‐ tems,themainimageryintelligenceprovider.Bycombininghighsensor 3OneofthefirstandmostimportantauthorstheorizingtheimportanceoftheCon‐ troloftheAirdoctrinehasbeentheItalianGiulioDouhetinhisstudyIldominiodell’aria TheAirSupremacy ,publishedin1921. 67 THE ROLE OF ITALIAN FIGHTER AIRCRAFT IN CRISIS MANAGEMENT OPERATIONS: TRENDS AND NEEDS imagery,hype‐spectralsensorsandall‐weatherradarsensors,aircapa‐ bilitiesovercomethelackofpersistenceexperiencedforexamplebyob‐ servation satellites. Air capabilities also complement naval and land fixed and mobile sensors by providing stand‐off interception of high‐ frequencysignalseitherforcommunicationintelligenceorforelectronic intelligence. IntermsofEngagement,AirPowerroleincludes:deepattack,ground attack,andinformationoperations.4Deepattackisaimedatdisrupting or destroying vital targets such as C2 infrastructures, industries of de‐ fence, command and control elements, war production resources, de‐ ployedforcesorkeysupportinginfrastructures.Inparticular,adeepat‐ tackseekstodisruptanenemy’sstrategyandabilityorwilltowagewar. Groundattacksoperationsintendtoachieveandmaintainaspecificde‐ gree of control of the battlefield by targeting enemy ground forces and/or infrastructures supporting them, or by using air psychological effects. These operations are subdivided in Air Interdiction AI and CloseAirSupport CAS .AIencompassesairoperationswhichaffecten‐ emy potential before it can retaliate against friendly surface forces, whileCASimpliesEngagementinsupportoflandforcesalready facing theiropponents.Similarly,withcounter‐seaoperations,suchasforex‐ ample Anti‐Surface Warfare ASUW , Anti‐Submarine Warfare ASW andAerialMining,theobjectiveistoattainandmaintainthedesiredde‐ greeofmaritimesuperioritybythedestruction,disruption,delay,diver‐ sion, or other neutralization of threats in the maritime environment.5 Finally,InformationOperationsarenon‐kinetic measures,6takentoin‐ fluence,affectordefendinformation,systemsanddecision‐makingpro‐ cess.Amongtheso‐calledInformationOperations,ElectronicWarfareis oneofthemostextensivelycarriedoutanditseekstocontroltheelec‐ 4 UK Ministry of Defence, British Air and Space Power Doctrine AP 3000 , 4th ed., 2009, http://www.raf.mod.uk/rafcms/mediafiles/9E435312_5056_A318_A88F14CF6F4 FC6CE.pdf. 5USAirForce, CounterseaOperations.AirForceDoctrineDocument3‐04,26Octo‐ ber2010,https://www.fas.org/irp/doddir/usaf/afdd3‐04.pdf. 6Ingeneral,theterm“non‐kinetic”referstotheabilitytocreateeffectsthatdonotrely on explosives or physical momentum e.g., directed energy, computer viruses/hacking, etc . 68 2. CURRENT AND FUTURE AIR OPERATIONS: DOCTRINE AND TRENDS tromagnetic spectrum, both to enable friendly‐force operations and to denyanenemythesamedegreeoffreedom.ElectronicWarfareisalso conducted as a part of SEAD kinetic operations aiming to achieve Con‐ troloftheAir. Finally,theprovisionofAirMobilitypermitsglobal,regionalandlo‐ caldeploymentofmilitaryandcivilianpersonnelandmateriel.Airmo‐ bilityactsasafundamentalenablertomoveandsustainforcesinsever‐ aloperationsanditcanberealizedthroughAir‐to‐AirRefuelling AAR , Airlift, Aero‐medical Evacuation, Airborne Operations, Aerial Delivery andSpecialAirOperations.Intheend,itshouldberemindedthatAirlift andAAR–necessarytoensureAirMobility–requiretheachievementof theControloftheAirbyfriendlyforces. 2.2 TRENDS FROM THE RECENT OPERATIONAL EXPERIENCE Asmentionedbefore,AirPower’sdoctrinealsotendstoevolvefollow‐ ingpracticesresultingfromoperationalexperience.Inthisperspective, sometrendsseemtoemergefromairoperationsconductedinthepost‐ ColdWarperiod. Firstofall,recentmissionsabroadhaveraisedawarenessatthepo‐ litical‐strategiclevelthatcomplexairoperationsrequiretheavailability ofallaircapabilitiesnecessarytoperformthefourAirPowerroles,and that air capabilities are more and more interlinked among each other. Forexample,thepreciseEngagementofaselectedtargetontheground isthelaststepinachainofactions,whichincludesthepreliminaryCon‐ troloftheAir,ISTARfindingsandtherelatedAirMobility. Second,ISTARimportancehasincreasedevermoreanditnowrep‐ resents an essential factor in all military operations. An emerged first key trend is that ISTAR is not provided only by dedicated platforms, such as RPAS, but by a number of sensors and systems embedded in a wide and complementary range of air platforms – obviously including fighteraircraft–aswellassatellites.Anothertrendisthattheprocessof collection,analysisanddisseminationisincreasinglyimportant.Onthe one hand, augmented dataflow needs greater capabilities of data man‐ 69 THE ROLE OF ITALIAN FIGHTER AIRCRAFT IN CRISIS MANAGEMENT OPERATIONS: TRENDS AND NEEDS agement, processing, storage and sharing. On the other hand, human analysisisvital:itisworthlesstoincreasethenumberofsensorsandto make dissemination more rapidly if this is not made compatible with humanprocessingcapacity. Third,ControloftheAirshouldnotbetakenforgranted.Airopera‐ tionsin Afghanistanhaveshownpoorlyorganizedortotallyabsent air defencesystems,butinbothLibya 2011 andKosovo 1999 casesthe priorityofthefirstdaysofoperationswasstilltoensurecoalition’sCon‐ troloftheAirbydestroyingopponentcommandandcontrol C2 struc‐ tures,mostofitsairdefencefixedsystemsandcombataircraft.There‐ fore, SEAD capability and other survivability issues will demand atten‐ tionandsubstantialinvestments.Thealternativeistoacceptasituation of Air Superiority or even Air Parity implying significant risk for allied aircrews. This is particularly true as non‐European powers, including China and Russia, are investing in air capabilities, and even opponents lacking advancedcapabilitieswillhavetheabilitytoimperil Controlof theAirthroughtheuseofshortrangeairdefence–includingMANPort‐ ableAir‐DefenceSystems MANPADS ,whichcancontestControlofthe Airbelow10,000feet.7 AsfarastheEngagementisconcerned,atrendworthtomentionis related to the use of Precision Guided Munitions PGM . Their use has exponentiallygrownsincethefirstGulfWar,whentheyhadbeenintro‐ ducedasasmallpercentageoftheoverallsetofammunition,toairop‐ erations in Libya, where they has been extensively used during the air campaign roughly 7,600 PGM were fired in seven months . This also reflectsachangeinthepoliticalandethicalmilieu,whichinfluencesthe planningandconductofairoperations:thosekindsofengagementthat couldbeeffective,butmightinvolveacertainnumberofciviliancasual‐ ties–notnecessarilyahighnumberinabsoluteterms–arenotpoliti‐ callyacceptableanymorebyEuropeangovernmentsandpublicopinion. In the future, the need to attack individual targets accurately will con‐ tinuetobeparamount. 7USDeptofState, AddressingtheChallengeofMANPADSProliferation,2February 2012,http://www.state.gov/t/pm/rls/rm/183097.htm. 70 2. CURRENT AND FUTURE AIR OPERATIONS: DOCTRINE AND TRENDS ThisissueappliesalsotoCAS.Inthiscontext,AirPowerrepresentsa strategic advantage but it can become a strategic vulnerability if not employedwithrestraintandprecisioninoperationswherethesupport oflocalpopulationiscrucialtosucceed,asanopponentcouldeasilyex‐ ploit collateral damages caused by the use of Air Power. CAS requires closeair‐landintegration,clearlydefinedproceduresanddetailedinte‐ grationofAirPoweractionswithfiringandmovementbyfriendlyforc‐ es,fortargetingguidanceandtoavoidfratricide.Proceduresarepartic‐ ularlyimportant,butthereisalsoaninteroperabilityissuewithregard todigitalCAS:differentnationalproceduresandtechnologiesmayham‐ perthisrole–aswellasothers.Inthiscontext,AirPowercontribution, often in joint missions and to support relatively small and mobile groundunits,willcontinuetorequireevengreaterall‐weathercapacity, precision,range,andrapiditywithregardtothesensor‐to‐shootercycle. Finally,inrelationtoAirMobility,adecisivetrendregardstheissue of operating at a strategic distance, in particular for European armed forces. There is a lack of air capabilities able to project Air Power, as demonstrated by European countries during the operation in Libya, where the operational theatre was relatively close to the Italian bases. Each option which has been designed to solve the issue, like more ad‐ vancedfighteraircraft,forwardbases,carriers,AARandstrategicairlift hasrevealeditsownlimitationssofar.Asaresult,onlyabalancedmix oftheseoptionscanmitigatesuchadeficiency. 71 3. Scenarios of possible future air operations Thefutureisnotpredictableandthischapterdoesnotaimtodoso.It ratherpresentstwoscenariosinordertopointouthowaircapabilities, in particular fighter aircraft, may be used in crisis management opera‐ tionsinthe2015‐2025timeframe.Thetwoscenariosare:first,airoper‐ ationstoestablishandenforceaNFZ;second,airsupporttoland‐based crisismanagementoperations.Eachscenariohasbeenbuiltaccordingto the same structure, which includes the following elements: Strategic Context; Mission Objectives; Critical Factors of the Operational Envi‐ ronment;AdversaryCapabilitiesandCourseofActions;AirComponent CourseofActionsandAssociatedCapabilities. Thelikelihoodofthesescenariosisnotaddressed,butitisassumed theyareatleastpossibleexamplesoffuturejoinedairoperationsbyEu‐ ropeancountries,includingItaly.ThestartingpointisthatItalianfighter have been deployed in different crisis management operations in the last two decades, and armed conflicts will still be a feature of interna‐ tionalsecurityuntil2050 andprobablybeyond ,withconflictcountries concentrated in Africa, Middle East and East and South Asia. Also, the phenomenon of failed states will probably remain on the international scene for a long time, especially if political violence in Africa and the MiddleEastisnotlikelytodecrease.1 Againstthisbackdrop,itispossibletoimagineafutureemployment of fighter in those regions, either for combat and/or stabilization pur‐ poses. As one might argue that NATO will never go “that out of area,” 1FundforPeace, TheFailedStatesIndex,http://ffp.statesindex.org/rankings‐2013‐ sortable. 73 THE ROLE OF ITALIAN FIGHTER AIRCRAFT IN CRISIS MANAGEMENT OPERATIONS: TRENDS AND NEEDS one might reply that probably at the end of the Cold War none would haveexpectedtoseeNATOrunningpeace‐keepingoperationsinKosovo first and in Afghanistan later. Additionally, while a NATO naval opera‐ tionisalreadyfullyoperationalintheHornofAfrica,ifthethreatofter‐ rorismraisesinthenextyears,carefulanalystswouldnotbecompletely surprisedtonoticeafurtherengagementofthealliesinthearea.More‐ over,astherecentcasesofFranceinterventionsinMali2andtheCentral AfricanRepublic3demonstrate,NATOisnottheonlyframeworkunder whichoperationsrequiringtheuseoffighteraircraftmaybemanaged. Inaddition,UN‐sponsoredmissionsintheshortterm,orEUonesinthe long run, might request the level of Air Power necessary to deal with complex in securityissues. 3.1 ESTABLISHING AND ENFORCING A NO-FLY ZONE: “PROTECT TURIANS” SCENARIO Thefollowingscenarioisonlyahypotheticalcontingency,yetsufficient‐ lyrealistictodrawimplicationsforthekindofaircapabilitiesthatmight berequiredinthefuture. 3.1.1 Strategic context Turia is country in the North African littoral inhabited by 30 million peopleoveralargeterritoryofmorethan2millionsquaredkilometers. The population is largely concentrated in the coastal areas. The gov‐ ernmentofTuriahasbeguntouseAirPowerasameantooppressinga segmentofitsownpopulation,theRegtura.Thisminorityhasadistinct ethnicbackgroundandhasbecomeincreasinglystridentinitsdemands ofself‐determination.TheareainwhichthemajorityofRegturaisbased isrelativelyrichinmineralsandisregardedasaninalienableportionof 2 “France confirms Mali military intervention”, in BBC News, 11 January 2013, http://www.bbc.co.uk/news/world‐africa‐20991719. 3“FrenchtroopsinCentralAfricanRepublicto“avoidcarnage”,in BBCNews,11De‐ cember2013http://www.bbc.co.uk/news/world‐europe‐25327976. 74 3. SCENARIOS OF POSSIBLE FUTURE AIR OPERATIONS thenationalterritorybytheTurianState.Therulinggovernmentthere‐ forecannotaffordtorelinquishtheterritoryandhasinstitutedaharsh policecrackdown,escalatingintowidespreadhumanrightsabuses.Ac‐ tion against the minority grouping is believed to include the use of air assets for a variety of purposes including police deployments, recon‐ naissance,crowdsuppressionandtargetedassassinations. Theinternationalcommunitydeemsnecessarytointerveneforava‐ rietyofreasons–includingbutnotlimitedtothefactthatahumanitari‐ andisasteristakingplacewiththousandsofpeoplekilledorinjuredand dozens of thousands of refugees directed towards both neighbour and European countries. Peace‐keeping ground forces cannot be deployed for legal and political motivation, but action is considered essential. Therefore,theUNSecurityCounciladoptsaresolutiontoestablishaNo‐ FlyZone NFZ inordertoprotectTuriansfromairthreats,andcallsthe international community to act. The US had deployed part of their air capabilities in the Pacific area, where the American administration be‐ lievemorecompellingsecurityinterestsareatstake.Asaresult,theUS has acquiesced to provide platforms and highly technological assets to begintheoperation theso‐called“enablers” andtherestofthesignifi‐ cant air capabilities required for the operation in Turia, but European countries will make a substantial and prolonged contribution to estab‐ lish and enforce a No‐Fly Zone. The operation will take place through NATOintegratedmilitarycommand. Thescenariotakesplaceroughly2,500kmfarfromEuropeanairba‐ ses,thatmeanswithinrangeofforcesthatcouldbebasedandsupport‐ edfrombaseslocatedinEurope,withsupplementingcarrierforces. 3.1.2 Mission objectives AccordingtoUNmandateissuedbytheSecurityCouncil,inthisscenario the Mission Statement for the Joint Force Air Component Command JFACC istoestablishandenforceaNFZovertheentireTuriaterritory inordertotheprotectcivilianpopulationfromgovernment’suseofAir Power. Accordingly,JointForceCommander’sintentistodisrupttheairca‐ pability of the Turia regime, its capacity to ill people, and then to act 75 THE ROLE OF ITALIAN FIGHTER AIRCRAFT IN CRISIS MANAGEMENT OPERATIONS: TRENDS AND NEEDS firmlyanddecisivelytoeffectthelevelsofprotectionenvisagedbythe internationalcommunityandtheUNSCResolution. As a result, the two main objectives are: first, to achieve Control of the Air by suppressing Turia government’s air capabilities, Integrated AirDefenceSystems IADS ,CommandandControl C2 structures;se‐ cond,toenforcea24‐hoursNFZforaperiodofseveralmonths. 3.1.3 Critical factors of the operational environment Forthisscenario,twocriticalfactorshavetobeconsidered.Ontheone hand,thelargesizeofTurianterritory,whichmakesparticularlyexpen‐ siveanddifficulttoeffectivelyenforcetheNFZalloverthecountry.On theotherhand,thenecessitytokeepairoperationswithinthestrictlim‐ itsenvisagedbyUNmandateandaccordingtoitslegalbasis,inorderto maintain legitimacy in the eyes of domestic public opinion and Allied politicalcohesion. 3.1.4 Adversary’s capabilities and Course of Action ThemilitarycapabilitiesofTuriangovernmentwillbelargelycomposed byantiquatedlegacyplatforms,withsomemodernequipmentincluding rotary‐wingsplatforms.Air‐defencesystemswillberelativelyeffective, includinga numberofSAM.The armedforces willbeprimarilyconsti‐ tutedbyconscriptandparamilitaryforces,althoughacoreofrelatively trained professionals will be in place and the command and control networkwillworkquitecomprehensivelyacrossallservicebranches. Given the gap with Allied air capabilities, the Turian government’s Course of Action CoA will rely on an asymmetric strategy aimed at weakeningthepoliticalcohesionoftheAlliedcoalition–consideredits centerofgravity.Suchstrategywillsee,forexample,civiliansforcedto be present nearby likely military targets for NATO air operations. This willbedoneinordereithertopreventtheengagementofsuchtargets becauseofstrictrulesofengagement RoE ,ortoblamecollateraldam‐ ages possibly caused by the occurred Engagement in the eyes of Euro‐ peanandNorthAmericapublicopinion. 76 3. SCENARIOS OF POSSIBLE FUTURE AIR OPERATIONS 3.1.5 Air component’s Course of Action and required capabilities Althoughthishasbeenconceivedpredominantlyasanairoperation,the internationalcommunityhassetupajointheadquarterincasethesitu‐ ationdevelopstothepointthatwidermilitaryoperationsarenecessary. GiventheoftenindecisivenatureofNFZ,thecoalitionmustbewillingto consideritasanenduringoperationcarriedout24/7.RulesofEngage‐ ment will be paramount on this operation, including air‐to‐air engage‐ mentsalongwithkeyair‐to‐groundprecisionattacks. Phase1 Thefirstphasewillinvolvethesetupofmission’sheadquarterandthe coalitionorderofbattle,alongwithanassessmentofthethreatposedto the Regtura ethnic minority. Since Phase 1, the headquarters will need to have timely and accurate intelligence assessments based on openly sharedmaterial.TheJFCneedstohaveclearlyagreedRulesofEngage‐ mentandmustbeawareofthescopeofnationalcaveat. Itwillbesetupacommand,control,communication,computingand intelligence C4I architecturerelyingonrobustnetworkenabledcapa‐ bilitiestointegrateallairandjointoperationelements.Spaceassetswill alsobeintegratedintheC4Iinordertosupportplanningandconductof operationsthroughEarthObservation EO ,PositioningNavigationand Timing PNT andsatellitecommunications.Coincidentwiththis,theair plannerswillneedtoestablishthelikelychallengeingainingControlof the Air to enable their own air operations. This is likely to involve the full panoply of intelligence gathering, dissemination and pooling capa‐ bilities. Phase2 This phase will first involve the establishment of Control of the Air against potential air and ground threats. It will include EW and SEAD tasks,aswellasair‐to‐airengagement.Thecommandandcontrolcapa‐ bilitiesrequiredinPhase1willbeutilizedalsoinPhase2.Itwillbevital to ensure suitable communications, especially from the joint and com‐ binedheadquartertoairassets. 77 THE ROLE OF ITALIAN FIGHTER AIRCRAFT IN CRISIS MANAGEMENT OPERATIONS: TRENDS AND NEEDS RequiredcapabilitiesforISTARpurposesinclude: - - - ISTAR capability to provide wide area coverage on a continual basisthroughamixofspaceassets,fighteraircraftandClassIII RPAS, supplemented by further RPAS to pin point specific targetsasrequired; ISTAR capability to support Find, Fix, Track, Target, Engage, Assess F2T2EA dynamictargetingcycleinthetheatre; Intelligence gathering, dissemination and pooling capabilities willbeheavilyusedalsoduringthisphase,particularlyfordata management,processing,storageandsharing; ResponsiveandrobustSpacecollectioncapabilitiesforrealtime surveillanceandtargeting. RegardingEngagement,itwillbenecessary: - - CapabilitytoconductavarietyofComputerNetworkOperations CNO againstAdversaryaircapabilitiesandC2networks; RPAScapabilitytobeusedseparatelyand/orjointlywithfighter aircraftforEW; Fighter aircraft and combat RPAS capability to perform SEAD and ensure Control of the Air against potential air and ground threats; CapabilityforBeyond‐Visual‐Range BVR air‐to‐airfighting; Airsurveillancecapability. ConsideringUNSCmandate,Alliedpublicopinion’sconcernsandadver‐ sary’sCoArelyingonasymmetrictactics,precisionattackswillbevital capabilities throughout the entire operation. This will include both the use of a range of all‐weather Precision Guided Munitions PGM , en‐ compassingSmallDiameterBombs SDB andsmallblastradiusweap‐ ons to limit collateral damages, and the capability for assessing battle damagealsothroughRPASandSpaceassets.Theywillbeusedthrough theaircampaigntoeliminateadversarygroundbasedfacilitiessuchas radars,missilesitesandC2centerswithminimumcollateraldamage. Inordertoprotectaircapabilities,spaceassetsprovidingSAwillbe necessary. Given the cost and complexity of enforcing a NFZ in the re‐ gion,ideallytheAlliedforcewillrequireacarriergroup,fromwhereair assetswillbedeployed,availablefortheentiredurationofthemission. 78 3. SCENARIOS OF POSSIBLE FUTURE AIR OPERATIONS Phase3 ThisphasewillmainlyconsistofenforcingtheNFZovertheentireTuri‐ an territory. It will be enduring and will involve countering air threats againsttheethnicminorityontheground.Thismaybesupplementedby attacksonkeyenemyC2nodes. Air operations might vary from mounting non‐kinetic interdiction and deterrence operations on a 24/7 basis to short periods of intense kinetic activity. Rapid and flexible response will be a key requirement, basedonsoundandaccurateintelligenceandrapiddecisionmakingto allowengagementwithadversarialforceswherenecessary. A central minimum requirement will be the ability to operate sus‐ tained24/7operationstopreventortodeteradversarialfixedwingac‐ tivity.Inprinciple,NATOEuropeanmemberswillhavesufficientaircraft tomountaNFZmission,albeitsomeoftheplatformshavelimitedorno all‐weather24‐hourscapability:theissuewillberathertheirreadiness. This need to be an enduring operation and the participating nations must assure their presence for the long haul. This has implications for sustainabilityandforthe“roulement”offorces. The same C2 and ISTAR capabilities needed for Phase 2 will be uti‐ lizedalsoforPhase3,althoughthenumberofsortieswillbelikelylower thaninthepreviousphasebecausetheAdversarymilitarycapabilities, and particularly air capabilities and C2 networks, will be severely dis‐ rupted. Required capabilities for engagement will include a sufficient combat aircraft capability to ensure more than 100 daily sorties. AAR capabilitywillbevitaltoenableNFZpolicingoverawidearea.Theca‐ pabilitytolimitcollateraldamagesasmuchaspossiblewillcontinueto be required, inter alia through the use of SDB and small blast radius bombs,aswellastheabilitytoassessbattledamages. European countries will struggle to support such an operation on a longduration,namelymorethansixmonths.EnforcingaNFZwouldin‐ evitably imply ability and a willingness to escalate to a more active ki‐ netic engagement scenario. Its absence could seriously undermine the credibilityoftheNFZ,encouragingtheadversarytosimplywaitforAl‐ lieddeterminationandresourcestowane. 79 THE ROLE OF ITALIAN FIGHTER AIRCRAFT IN CRISIS MANAGEMENT OPERATIONS: TRENDS AND NEEDS 3.2 AIR SUPPORT TO LAND-BASED OPERATION: “STABILITY IN BANON” SCENARIO Again, the following scenario is only an hypothetical contingency, yet sufficientlyrealistictodrawimplicationsforthekindofaircapabilities required. 3.2.1 Strategic context AcountrycalledBanoninthe EastMediterraneanseais avictimofan ethnic and religious internal conflict supported by a Northern neigh‐ bouringstate,theRepublicofSari.Theframeworkoftheaircampaignis typicallytailoredtomatchacounterinsurgencyenvironmentinsupport ofanincumbentgovernment.Inthisscenario,Europeanaircomponent is deployed to support a multinational ground force committed to im‐ plement a UN Resolution. A substantial number of European countries contribute to a UN‐mandated multinational force. The UN back the in‐ terventionandprovidelegitimacythroughamandatebasedonthe“Re‐ sponsibility to Protect” the civilian population, while the Arab League alsosupportsandcontributestothemultinationalforce.ThereisUSdi‐ rect support to the air campaign, but for a variety of political reasons largepartoftheburdenhastobeshoulderedbyEuropeans.TheNATO commandandcontrolarchitectureandproceduresareinusetomanage themilitaryoperations.AnEUcivilianmissionistaskedforSecuritySec‐ torReform SSR ofBanon. The Banon Liberation Front BLF backed by RS government is in‐ creasingitsinfluenceinBanon.BLFisanon‐stateactorwhichrelieson roughly9,000combatants,operatingalongtheborderdeepintoBanon territoryfromSarisanctuaries.Theypracticeparamilitaryandterrorist activities.Theirplannedcampaignconsistsofraidingvillagesandsmall townsandtocleanotherethnicorreligiousgroupsfrom“liberatedter‐ ritories.”Ingovernmentcontrolledareas,theBLFperformsterroristac‐ tivities such as assassination of Banon citizens, random bombings, at‐ tacks on official buildings or governmental representatives. There are dozensofthousandsofdisplacedpeople,andamassiveflowofrefugees towardsbothneighbourcountriesandEurope. 80 3. SCENARIOS OF POSSIBLE FUTURE AIR OPERATIONS The Banon National Defense Force BNDF is a very weak regular forceof35,000menshowingnoabilitytostoptheguerrillaandtheethnic cleansing in the Northern region of Banon. Except two elite battalions, mostpartofthetroopsareilltrained,poorlyequippedandunderpaid. The Sari Democratic Army SDA is 45,000 men strong. Almost en‐ tirelyoperational,theregularforcescandeploytwobrigadessupported by field artillery and Special Forces. The Sari Air Force is air capable with around 25 fighter/bomber jets, 10 training/bomber jets, 3 cargo planesand12helicopters,including6attackand6transport.Aneffec‐ tiveairdefensesystemprovidesprotectionoftheSariRepublicthrough missilesandheavyartillery,whileDozensofMAN‐PortableAir‐Defence Systems MANPADS areavailabletoregularandirregularforces. TheUNForceinBanon UNFB is8,000menstrongandisreadyto bedeployedonshortnoticetoprotectthesovereigntyofBanon,assist the Government of Banon in restoring a safe and secure environment andprovidesupporttoNGOsandinternationalorganizationsmanaging humanitarianactivities.Theairoperationstakeplaceatabout3,500km fromEuropeanairbases. 3.2.2 Mission objectives The Joint Force Air Component Command JFACC is deployed in the East Mediterranean on a projection and command ship nearby the Re‐ publicofBanon’scoasts.AccordingtotheUNmandateissuedbytheSe‐ curity Council, JFACC mission statement is: to assist the GoB to defend the territorial integrity of Banon; to support the deployment of the UNFB, to restore a safe and secure environment and to execute a non‐ combatantevacuationonshortnotice 72hours ,ifnecessary. The operation may be divided in two phases. In the first one, the Commander’sintentistorapidlydeployacapable,credible,visibleand sustainableaircomponentinorderto:demonstratetheUNFBresolveto enforcetheUNResolution;assisttosetconditionstodeteranyforeign aggression; prevent deterioration of the humanitarian crisis. The main effortatthisearlystagewillbeestablishmentoftheNFZintheareaof operations;supporttoUNFBuntiltheachievementofafulloperational capability;evacuationofnon‐combatantforeigncitizensifrequired. 81 THE ROLE OF ITALIAN FIGHTER AIRCRAFT IN CRISIS MANAGEMENT OPERATIONS: TRENDS AND NEEDS Thisimpliesto: 1. Secure airbases and Aerial Ports of Debarkation APOD in the RepublicofBanon; 2. CombatSearchandRescue CASR activities; 3. Establish a NFZ along the international border with RS with associatedsurveillancecapabilities; 4. Establishairdefenceinareaofoperations. Then, in the second phase, the main effort will be expanding the en‐ forcement of the UN Resolution and countering hostile forces through‐ out the Republic of Banon, giving to Banon Government the necessary time and support to achieve internal stability. Developing a self‐ sustained Banon National Defence Force will be the key to ensure that thisstabilitywillberemnant:theCommanderwilltrytoachieveitbya strong partnership and combined planning and operations with UNFB, the EU RSS Mission and the Government of Banon. The second Phase willfocusonsupportingtheUNFBandhastheobjectivesto: 1. AssurefullmobilityofUNFBandBNDF; 2. ProtectandsupportdirectlyUNFBandBNDFonrequest; 3. AssisttheciviliandeploymentofBanonandinternationalorgani‐ zations’representatives; 4. Opposeinfiltrationandfreedomofmaneuverofhostileelements inBanonterritory; 5. Deterfurtheraggressions. 3.2.3 Critical factors of the operational environment At political level, it has to be considered a weak legitimacy of the Gov‐ ernmentofBanonintheNorthernregionandapoorBanonstateagen‐ cies’capability.ArabLeaguediplomaticeffortsfocusonapeaceprocess between the Republic of Sari and Banon, therefore no military retalia‐ tionisallowedintheSariterritory. Inthetheatre,intheshorttermthemilitarybalanceofforcefavours theBLFanditssupporterfromtheRepublicofSari,becauseofanaccu‐ rateknowledgeoftheregion,afavourablesupportofindigenouspopu‐ 82 3. SCENARIOS OF POSSIBLE FUTURE AIR OPERATIONS lation and a porous border. Military operations will have significant negative impact on economic growth and activities. Likewise, evacua‐ tionofforeignpersonnelcoulddeprivethecountryofinvaluablecompe‐ tences.Besides,destructionorseizureofcriticalassetsincludingoilrigs andkeyindustrialfacilitiescouldhittheBanonsocialstability.Moreo‐ ver, economic and industrial facilities are not adequately linked by roads and railways, thus maintaining operational ground lines of com‐ municationisdifficult.Therefore,airmobilityisofcriticalimportance. Finally,internationalpublicopinionisnotconcernedwiththeevolu‐ tioninthefield,exceptincaseofmediacoverageofahumanitariandis‐ asteroroperationalcasualties.Thesupportwillbehardtomaintainin themid‐term. 3.2.4 Adversary’s capabilities and course of action TheRepublicofSari,awareofthepoliticalriskofaninvasionofBanon, would opt for an attrition strategy to delaying the political peace pro‐ cessandupholdingthe“LiberationCampaign”ledbyBLF. TheinitialdeploymentofUNFBisunopposed,whereasallinitiativesto restoring a safe and secure environment are strongly denied. A double lineofoperationsisdeveloped:aparamilitary/terroristcampaigninthe Northernregion;aterroristcampaigninthebigcitiesofBanontodestabi‐ lizetheGovernmentandcreateconditionsforacoup.Thehighvaluetar‐ getofhostileforcesshouldthenbe:UNFBunitsinplace;innocentpeople harassedintargetedareastocreateconditionsformass‐migration;sabo‐ tageofinfrastructuresinkeyeconomicfacilities;BanonNDFoutpostsand policestations;officialbuildingsand/orrepresentatives. 3.2.5 Air component Course of Action and required capabilities Phase1 The JFACC is included in a layer of multinational C2 structures and is sufficient to provide C2 framework for a non‐combatant evacuation. Furthermore,ithasanAirTaskingOrder ATO of100sortiesperday toestablishandenforceaNFZandtheprojectionofacompositesquad‐ 83 THE ROLE OF ITALIAN FIGHTER AIRCRAFT IN CRISIS MANAGEMENT OPERATIONS: TRENDS AND NEEDS ron for a month. At this stage, signal intelligence and electronic intelli‐ gencecapabilitiesarerequiredtomonitorthedispositionandthestatus of air defence systems along the border with the Republic of Sari. Im‐ ageryintelligenceassetsprovidedbysatellitesandrecce‐podsmakead‐ ditionaldataavailableforsurveillanceofBLFmovementswithinBanon. ThecoreofthemissionistheactivationofaNFZalongtheinternational border,whoseactivationencompasses: Earlywarningandpermanentsurveillanceofairspaceprovided by AWACS for long range monitoring of Republic of Sari air bases; FighterCombatAirPatrol; DefensiveElectronicWarfare. The NFZ layout should demonstrate a strong commitment. Regarding the protection of the headquarter, two options are available. A Carrier BattleGroup CBG isprobablythelessriskyoptionconsideringthelow levelofthreatinbluewater.However,theCBGavailabilitycouldnotbe assured, at least permanently. The second option relies on a hardened airbaseinBanon,closetothecapitalcityRutbei.Theneededcapabili‐ tiesincludeAirengineersandAirSpecialForcescapabilities,defensive EW.DeployabilityandAirMobilityarekeyissues,sincethejointopera‐ tionsareais3,500kmfarfromEuropeanairbases.Thenon‐combatant evacuation is a priority. Critical capabilities include long range airlift and related air tankers for insertion of air engineers elements, special forces,fewsupporthelicoptersforCombatSARandplatformsforair‐to‐ airrefuelling.ThequalityofBanoninfrastructuresislow.Consequently, thebulkoflogistics,intermsofmodernairnavigationandadaptationto militarystandardswillbechargedonthemultinationalforce. Phase2 Inthisphase,themission’stasksconsistof: - establishing a coherent C2 architecture with UNFB and Host Nation HN ; providingintelligence; assuring increased mobility in theatre, including medical evacuation; 84 3. SCENARIOS OF POSSIBLE FUTURE AIR OPERATIONS - deliveringfiresupport–i.e.CAS–onrequest; assistingtheRSSoftheHN,forinstancebytrainingandequipping anewBanonAirForce. Three chains of command have to be intermingled: NATO, UNFB and HN.Thepurposeistogetacommonpictureandplanningprocessinto the Combined Air Operation Centre CAOC . Command and control ar‐ chitecturemustbeflexibleenoughtoprovideaquickresponseattacti‐ callevel.Theapportionmentofassetsandmissionassignmentsmustbe preciselycoordinatedwithgroundforcesand,inordertofollowtheflu‐ idevolutionofthetacticalsituation,mustbeorganizedtoallowaneasy and rapid en‐route re‐tasking of the aircraft. Required capabilities in‐ clude Tactical Air Control Post TACP network in ground units, rapid engagementwithswiftchainofF2T2EA. It is also required a permanent ISR function: combination of fighter aircraftandbothClassIIIandClassIIRPASmonitoringremoteterrain, keyareasandfriendlyforcesallacrosstheareaofoperations.Support tothegroundmanoeuvreswillvaryaccordingtothephaseofthestabil‐ itycampaignledbytheHNandUNFB.However,aircomponentwillplay adirectactionrolethroughanti‐surfaceactionsincludingCASwithdis‐ criminatestrikes,interdictionandpsychologicaloperationsandinfoop‐ erationsinsupporttogroundforces. Thus,somespecificcapabilitieswillberequired: - - Precision strike should be assured by PGMs and a combination of low cost weapons provided by attack helicopters. Visual identification of target is the key condition to reduce risks of collateraldamagestoanacceptablelevel. AAR capacity is critical to maintain a significant fighter aircraft andhelicoptersloiteringcapacityforaprolongedperiodoftime. ThebestcontributionofAirPowertothejointforceprotectionrelieson a flexible and responsive system of mission tasking: reconnaissance, mobility, direct support, increase the confidence of friendly forces and cripplethemoraleofinsurgents.Re‐establishingasafeandsecureenvi‐ ronmentimpliesadualroleforAirPower:firstly,providingsecurityto friendly forces and HN Authorities; secondly, limiting insurgents’ mili‐ taryoptions. 85 THE ROLE OF ITALIAN FIGHTER AIRCRAFT IN CRISIS MANAGEMENT OPERATIONS: TRENDS AND NEEDS Required capabilities also include airmobile units Army Aviation , with heavy medium helicopters and tactical airlifts to support Banon Government’sstabilityoperationsbyprovidingtransporttopoliceforc‐ es, national and international agencies’ personnel for election pro‐ gramme,humanitarianassistanceandmedicalevacuationmissions. Finally, the air component will contribute to the SSR’s efforts of the HNthroughtrainingandtheprovisionofnewequipmenttotheBanon Airforce,whosecreationisenvisagedtoassuringtheControloftheAir alsointheaftermathofthepeacekeepingmission. 86 4. The military needs of Italian Armed Forces and the F-35 programme Asithasemergedinthefirstchapter,Italyhasdeployedmorethan100 fighteraircraftin10internationalcrisisoperationsinthelast24years, flyingmorethan13,000sortiesandtotalling36,000flighthours. Theuseofaircapabilitiesformissionsabroadislikelytocontinuein the next future, although it is not possible to exactly foresee where, when, and how many fighter aircraft will be used by Italy. The second chaptersummarizesdoctrine’sfundamentalsandtrendsstemmingfrom operationalexperienceinordertoshedsomelightonpossiblewaysto useAirPower. Inthisregard,thethirdchapterprovidespossiblescenarios,whereby fighteraircraftmaybeusedfordifferenttasks,rangingfromthosenec‐ essarytoestablishandenforceaNFZtoothersinsupportofgroundop‐ erations. These scenarios may well take place in regions surrounding Europe,suchasNorthAfrica,MiddleEastandthe“enlargedMediterra‐ nean,”1whereItaliannationalinterestsaremostlyatstake. Such analysis poses a number of key questions for Italian policy‐ makers,includingcivilianauthorities–inprimistheParliamentandthe Government–andthearmedforces.Thischapteraimstoaddresssuch questionsandtherelatedprocurementneedsofItalianmilitary,aswell astoassesswhetherandhowtheF‐35procurementprogrammesatis‐ fiestheaforementionedneeds. 1 For a definition of “Enlarged Mediterranean” see for example: Italian Ministry of Foreign Affairs, Rapporto 2020: le scelte di politica estera, April 2008, p. 57, http://www.esteri.it/mae/doc/Rapporto2020_SceltePoliticaEstera_090408.pdf; Italian MinistryofDefence‐DefenceGeneralStaff, IlconcettostrategicodelCapodiStatoMag‐ giore della Difesa, March 2005, http://www.difesa.it/SMD_/CASMD/CONCETTOSTRA‐ TEGICO/Pagine/default.aspx. 87 THE ROLE OF ITALIAN FIGHTER AIRCRAFT IN CRISIS MANAGEMENT OPERATIONS: TRENDS AND NEEDS 4.1 FIRST KEY QUESTION: DOES ITALIAN PARTICIPATION IN CRISIS MANAGEMENT OPERATIONS SERVE NATIONAL INTERESTS? ThefirstkeyquestioniswhetherItalianparticipationincrisismanage‐ ment operations together with European and North American allies doesservenationalinterests.Thisisprimarilya politicalquestionthat deserves a preliminary clarification on the international security envi‐ ronment. Inthepost‐ColdWarperiodthedirectthreatofmilitaryinvasionof Italianterritoryhasgreatlydecreasedincomparisonwithpreviousdec‐ ades. Even if this threat has become highly unlikely, it would be ex‐ tremely dangerous to rule it out as a possible contingency in the long‐ term:attheendoftheday,intheearly20thcentury,Europeancountries didnotexpectWorldWarItooccur,andthishasparadoxicallybeenone ofthereasonswhyitdid.Incontrast,duringtheColdWar,NATOcoun‐ triesandtheSovietblocdidexpectanotherconflicttoeruptinEurope, andthisisoneofthereasonswhyitdidnot.Inotherwords,inthese‐ cond half of 20th century deterrence prevented armed conflicts in Eu‐ rope.Therefore,itisworthyforNATOmemberstomaintaintheneces‐ sarymilitarycapabilities–includingaircapabilities–inordertodeter thataneventualescalationofpoliticalclashesintheinternationalarena wouldrevertintoanopenmilitaryconfrontation.Thecrisisoccurredin Ukraine between 2013 and 2014 has been a strong reminder that the useofmilitaryforceinEuropeisstillanoptionforsomeregionalactors in order to pursue their political goals. Something similar occurred in theFirstGulfWar,whenItalyjoinedthewarcoalitionledbytheUSto putanendtotheIraqinvasionofKuwait.Itisnotbyaccidentthatthe firstNATO“coretask”,reaffirmedinthe2010StrategicConcept,isthe collectivedefenceofmemberstatesagainstanythreatofaggression.2 2 The 2010 Strategic Concept has established three core tasks for NATO: collective defenceaccordingtoArt.5,crisismanagementoperationsbeyondAlliedterritories,and cooperativesecuritythroughinteraliapartnerships.NATO, NewStrategicConcept,No‐ vember2010,http://www.nato.int/strategic‐concept/Index.html. 88 4. THE MILITARY NEEDS OF ITALIAN ARMED FORCES AND THE F-35 PROGRAMME Having said that, after the end of the Cold War, the main activity of Italian military has not been territorial defence. It has rather been the participationincrisismanagementoperationsbeyondnationalborders. Oneofthe mainreasonsofthisshiftwerethechanges occurredinthe internationalsecurityenvironment,whichmakesecurityinterests–and generally speaking national interests – affected by events, crises, risks andthreatsoccurringwellbeyondcountry’sborders.Globalizationand economicinterdependencehaveobviouslyplayedafundamentalrolein this regard. The analysis of such changes is beyond the scope of this study. The bottom line is that in the last 24 years military capabilities have been used in missions abroad to defend Italian security interests andnationalinterestsinanewandunexpectedway.Asmentionedbe‐ fore,nobodyin1989wasexpectingNATOtointerveneinYugoslaviato haltacivilwar,althoughtheAlliancediditwithairandgroundopera‐ tionsfew yearslater.Similarly,itwasnotexpectedthat2001terrorist attacks–andlateronterroristbombingsinMadridandLondon–would havepromptaninternationalefforttofightterrorism,includingthrough militarymeanssuchasthoseemployedbyNATOforonedecadeinAf‐ ghanistan.Finally,stillinearly2000s,itwasnotexpectedthatEuropean Navies would have countered piracy in the Red Sea and Indian Ocean throughNATOandEUmissionsOceanShield3andAtalanta.4Recentse‐ curitystrategiesadoptedbyinternationalorganizations–suchas2010 NATOStrategicConcept or2003EuropeanSecurityStrategy5–aswell asthosebytheUS,FranceandtheUK,dotaskarmedforcestoperforma broad spectrum of missions, predominantly within a coalition rather thanalone,againstavarietyofthreatsandinawiderangeofcrises.This internationalsecurityenvironmentexplainstheimportanceofmissions abroadforEuropeancountriessuchasItaly. 3NATOMaritimeCommand, OperationOceanShield,http://www.mc.nato.int/ops/ Pages/OOS.aspx. 4EUNavalForceSomalia,http://eunavfor.eu. 5Alreadyin2003,the EuropeanSecurityStrategyfocusedonsecuritythreatsdiffer‐ entfromterritorialdefence,suchasterrorism,statefailure,proliferationofweaponsof mass destruction, regional instability and organized crime, and set as priority for EU memberstatesthecapacitytoacttroughcivilianandmilitarymissions. 89 THE ROLE OF ITALIAN FIGHTER AIRCRAFT IN CRISIS MANAGEMENT OPERATIONS: TRENDS AND NEEDS Inthiscontext,Italianparticipationincrisismanagementoperations inthelast24yearshascontributeddirectlyorindirectlytoprotectand promote national interests. For example, the stabilization of Bosnia‐ Herzegovina,KosovoandgenerallyspeakingtheWesternBalkanswasa clear, direct national interest, because, since the early 1990s, Italy had sufferedfromboththeflowofillegalimmigrantscomingfromthesere‐ gionsandthecreationofafavourableenvironmentforinternationalor‐ ganizedcrimeandillicittraffics.Crisismanagementoperations,includ‐ ingthoseconductedthroughAirPower,havebeeninstrumentaltopaci‐ fy and stabilize an area extremely close to Italian national territory. Once stabilized, countries in this region became or rather are becom‐ ing partofbothEUandNATO6andhaveprovidedeconomicopportuni‐ tiesforItalianeconomyintermsofexportandinvestments. Italianparticipationinothermissionsabroadhasservednationalin‐ terestsinanindirectway.7Forinstance,theactiveparticipationinNATO operations,particularlytheeleven‐yearlongISAFoperationinAfghani‐ stan,hasbeenaninvestmentinakindofAllied“insurancepolicy”forIta‐ ly’snationalsecurity.DuringtheColdWar,theAtlanticAlliance,andthe USinparticular,hasbeentheonlysecurityguaranteeItalyhad,thisbe‐ ing a sort of invisible “shield” or “umbrella” vis‐à‐vis the Soviet threat. SincetheendoftheColdWar,this“shieldrole”hasevolvedintoan“in‐ surancepolicy”incasetheinternationalsecuritycontextwoulddeterio‐ rateagain.ThecurrenttransitionoftheinternationalsystemfromaUS hegemony towards an uncertain and unstable multi‐polar equilibrium, with emerging or re‐emerging powers that do not necessarily share Western interests and values, pushes Italy to consider maintaining this “insurance policy” even more worthy. Participation in NATO most im‐ portant missions, such as those in Afghanistan and Kosovo, is a way to maintainasolid,cohesiveandcrediblemilitaryAllianceandtokeepthe investmentmadeinthe“insurancepolicy”fornationalsecurity. 6SloveniaandCroatiahavealreadybecomemembersofNATOandEU.Albaniahas joined NATO too. Other Western Balkan countries are either candidate to join both NATOandEUortheyareexpectedtobecomecandidateinthenextyears. 7ThisappliesalsotootherimportantmissionsabroadsuchasthoseinLebanonor Somalia, which are beyond the scope of this study since they did not envisaged a sub‐ stantialuseoffighteraircraft. 90 4. THE MILITARY NEEDS OF ITALIAN ARMED FORCES AND THE F-35 PROGRAMME This is particularly true for Italy, a “middle power”8 which does not havesufficientcapabilitiestoprotectitssecurityinterestsalone–with the only relevant exception of Alba’s crisis management operation, led byItalyin1996withtheendorsementofUNSC,torestoresecurityand stability in Albania. In fact, Italy has national interests well beyond its borders: safe trade routes in the “Enlarged Mediterranean,” stretching totheRedSeaandtheIndianOcean;energysuppliesfromNorthAfrica, theMiddleEastandCentralAsia;maritimesecurityandbordercontrol intheMediterraneaninrelationtoillegalimmigration;ageneralinter‐ estininternationalfreetradeandopennessofforeignmarketsforItal‐ ianexport.Yet,suchinterestscannotbeprotectedbyItalyalone–nei‐ therbyanyotherEuropeancountryactingonitsown.Asaresult,Italian activeparticipationininternationalorganizationssuchasNATO,theEU andtheUN,aswellasininformalforasuchasG8andG20,isawayto press its allies and the international community to deal with security challenges that are intertwined with Italian national interests.9 In par‐ ticular, an active, reliable and stable Italian participation in all NATO missions,includingthoselessdirectlyconnectedwithnationalinterests such as ISAF, is instrumental to gain the necessary credibility to push theAlliancetodealwithkeyItaliansecuritypriorities.Moreover,being crisismanagementoperationssetupandorganizedunderinternational organizations’frameworkallowsItalytosharetheirrisksandcosts,to extendtheinterventionrangetoprotectitsnationalinterestsandtoen‐ hance inter‐allies solidarity.10 Vice‐versa, a “free rider” approach with regard to operational burden sharing would inevitably weaken Italy’s positionwithinNATOandotherinternationalorganizationsanditsabil‐ itytoinfluencetheallieswithrespecttoItaliandefenceandforeignpol‐ icygoals.Thisappliesalso,toacertainextent,toItaly’sroleintheUN.In 8OntheItaly’sstructuralconditionas“middlepower”inthepost‐ColdWarperiod see,amongothers,GiampieroGiacomelloandBertjanVerbeek eds ,Italy’sForeignPol‐ icy in the Twenty‐First Century. The New Assertiveness of an Aspiring Middle Power, Lanham,LexingtonBooks,2011. 9See,amongothers,StefaniaForteandAlessandroMarrone eds. ,“L’Italiaelemis‐ sioni internazionali”, in Documenti IAI, No. 12|05 September 2012 , pp. 27‐28, http://www.iai.it/pdf/DocIAI/iai1205.pdf. 10Ibid.,p.44. 91 THE ROLE OF ITALIAN FIGHTER AIRCRAFT IN CRISIS MANAGEMENT OPERATIONS: TRENDS AND NEEDS fact,ItalianparticipationinUN‐mandatedmissions,includingforexam‐ plethoseinIraqandBosnia‐Herzegovina,hasbeenoneofthemainar‐ gumentsusedtofosterItalianpositionwithinthenegotiationontheUN SecurityCouncil’sreform,inordertopreventadifferentsettlementthat wouldhaveincludednewpermanentmembers,butleftItalyoutofUN’s apicalbody. This approach is linked to Italian traditional effort to be part of the coregroupsofcountriesdealingwithsecurityissuesaffectingItaly’sna‐ tional interests. The condition of “middle power” makes it difficult for Italytomaintainitsstatusvis‐à‐vismorepowerfulcountries.Thisisone ofthemainreasonswhy,sincetheendofWorldWarII,Italiangovern‐ ments have constantly sought to join any form of enhanced security‐ related cooperation: European Defence Community, Western European Union,NATO,EUinstitutionsandmissionsdealingwithCommonSecuri‐ tyandDefencePolicy CSDP ,uptothevarious“contactgroups”estab‐ lishedduringYugoslavia’sbreakupinthe1990s.TheratioisthatifItaly ispartofthecore group,Italianchancestoinfluencethegoalspursued bysuchgroupincrisisaffectingnationalinterestsaregreaterthanifItaly operates out of it. This has been one of the reasons Italy has chosen to joinoperationsOdysseyDawnandUnifiedProtectorin2011,despiteof ItalianscepticismontheireffectsonLibyansecurityandstability–scep‐ ticismwhichhasprovedtoberightinthefollowingyears.Whether2011 airoperationsinLibyahavecontributedtoupholdItaly’snationalinter‐ estsremainsanopenquestion.However,sincethemilitaryintervention byotherWesterncountriesbecameinevitableatthattime,Italianpartic‐ ipation in the multinational and then NATO air campaign has at least benefited Italy’s position with respect to the newly established Libyan leadership.This,inturn,hasprovidedwiththebasisforarenewedbilat‐ eral cooperation on important Italian priorities such as border control andmaritimesecurity,immigrationmanagementandenergysupplies. Finally, participation in crisis management operations is also a way tomaintainstrongrelationswithItaly’smainsecurityally,theUS,con‐ sideredsincetheendofWorldWarIIthebedrockofEuropeanandItal‐ iansecurity.Beingsurroundedbyunstableregions–fromtheWestern BalkanstotheSouthernMediterraneanshores–andnotableasa“mid‐ dlepower”toshapeeventsintheseregionsonitsown,Italyhastradi‐ 92 4. THE MILITARY NEEDS OF ITALIAN ARMED FORCES AND THE F-35 PROGRAMME tionallyreliedon“asymmetricalliances”withstrongerpartners suchas theUS toaddresscommonsecurityconcerns.11Moreover,thebilateral relation with Washington has been deliberately pursued by Rome as a leveragetoenhanceItaly’sstatusvis‐à‐visstrongerEuropeancountries such as France and Germany. Despite the disappearance of the Soviet threat,thistwo‐foldapproachintherelationswiththeUShascontinued inthe1990sbecauseofinternationalcrisesintheBalkansandtheMedi‐ terranean,aswellasbecauseofthekindofrelationshipswithotherEU members.12Furthermore,the2001terroristattacksshiftedUSnational securityprioritiesfromEuropetotheGreaterMiddleEastandmadeEu‐ ropeanalliesincreasinglyvaluedbyWashingtonintermsoftheirpoliti‐ calandmilitarycontributiontoUS‐ledcrisismanagementoperations,13 suchasthoseinAfghanistan.Asaresult,theItalianparticipationinmis‐ sionsabroadhasbecomeafundamentaltoolforItaliandefenceandfor‐ eignpolicywithrespecttotheUSally.14 Obviously,themilitaryparticipationincrisismanagementoperations envisaging the use of Air Power does not guarantee per sé the direct protectionofItaly’snationalinterests.Neitheritensuresdirectandpos‐ itive effects on Italian credibility vis‐à‐vis important allies, Italy’s role within multilateral organizations such as NATO, UN or EU, or bilateral relationswiththeUS.Indeed,suchprotectionofnationalinterestsand positiveeffectonItaliancredibilitydepend,amongotherthings,onthe capacity of Italian governments – and of the country as a whole – to makethebestofthemilitarycontributionprovidedbyItaly.15Inthisre‐ 11See, amongothers,“L’Italiaelatrasformazionedelloscenariointernazionale”,in Alessandro Colombo and Gianni Bonvicini eds. , La politica estera dell’Italia. Edizione 2012,Bologna,IlMulino,2012,pp.9‐25. 12LeopoldoNuti,“TheRichestandFarthestMasterisAlways Best:US‐ItalianRela‐ tionsinHistoricalPerspective”,inDavidM.Andrews ed. , The AtlanticAllianceUnder Stress,Cambridge,CambridgeUniversityPress,2005,p.189. 13CeMiSSandRAND, ChangingU.S.DefensePolicyandtheWaronTerrorism:Impli‐ cationsforItalyandforUS‐ItalianRelations,Gaeta,Artistic&Publishing,2002,p.46. 14ForadetailedcomparisonofItalian,FrenchandBritishcontributiontoUS‐ledmil‐ itaryoperationsseeJasonW.Davidson, America’sAlliesandWar.Kosovo,Afghanistan, andIraq,NewYork,PalgraveMacmillan,2011. 15Interviewdated11December2013. 93 THE ROLE OF ITALIAN FIGHTER AIRCRAFT IN CRISIS MANAGEMENT OPERATIONS: TRENDS AND NEEDS gard,participationinmissionsabroadisafundamentalenablerforItal‐ iandefenceandforeignpolicy,despitebeingnotsufficientwithoutafull and stable diplomatic and political commitment. In the future, the ef‐ fectsofthiscontributionwilldependoncircumstances,aswellasonthe abilityofItaliangovernmentstoexploitthisvaluabletool.Forsure,giv‐ ing up the ability to participate in missions abroad through Air Power would hamper this possibility, having a negative impact on Italian de‐ fence and foreign policy, and thus on Italy’s ability to protect and pro‐ motenationalinterestsintheinternationalarena. Inordertomaintainsuchatool,acertainlevelofdefencespendingis necessary.Sincetheearly2000s,Italyhasallocatedanaverageof0.9% ofGDPperyeartothedefencefunction,16roughlyhalfofwhathasbeen spent in the same period – in absolute terms – by European countries suchasFrance,GermanyandtheUK.TheItaliandebateondefencemat‐ ters includes critics of military spending, particularly in times of eco‐ nomic crisis. For example, in February 2013, left‐wing political parties and pacifist groups have put forward the “Agenda for Peace and Dis‐ armament.”17 The initiative proposed to dismantle large defence pro‐ curement programmes and re‐allocate the related funds to social poli‐ ciestosupportemploymentandprotecttheenvironment.Thisdecision wouldimplyanegativecascadeeffectwhichisoftenunder‐evaluatedby the Italian debate on defence matters. In fact, the first effect would be the reduction of Italy’s ability to protect national interests through de‐ fence and foreign policy, which in turn would have a significant and negativeimpactonItaliansocietyandeconomy. 16 The term “defence function” includes all expenditures necessary to perform the specificsetoftasksassignedtoArmy,Navy,Air,Forceandjointcomponent,aswellas technical and administrative personnel of Defence Ministry. See Alessandro Marrone, Elena Cesca, Alessandro R. Ungaro, Defence Budgets and Industry: Tables and Graphs, July2013,http://www.iai.it/pdf/Economia_difesa/Tabelle‐grafici‐EN.pdf. 17SEL, Agendaperlapaceeildisarmoperlaprossimalegislatura,February2013, http://www.sinistraecologialiberta.it/wp‐ content/uploads/2013/02/SELDisarmoPAce12Feb.pdf. 94 4. THE MILITARY NEEDS OF ITALIAN ARMED FORCES AND THE F-35 PROGRAMME 4.2 SECOND KEY QUESTION: WHAT KIND OF AIR CAPABILITIES DOES ITALY NEED TO PARTICIPATE IN CRISIS MANAGEMENT OPERATIONS? IfitisassumedthatmaintainingthecapacitytoprojectAirPowerincri‐ sismanagementoperationsdoesserveItaliandefenceandforeignpoli‐ cy,thesecondkeyquestioniswhataircapabilitiesareneededinthisre‐ gard. Particularly, Air Mobility is a crucial role to be performed by air capabilities. Nonetheless, Air Mobility is not the focus of this study, whichisratheronEngagement,ISTARandControloftheAirroles. Inthelast24years,theEngagementrolehasbeenperformedbyItal‐ ianmilitarythroughfighteraircraftsuchasTornado,AMX,F‐16,F‐104 and AV‐8B. Some of them, mainly Tornado, have been used together withEurofightertogainandmaintainControloftheAirinLibya 2011 andKosovo 1999 .Asamatteroffact,thefighteraircraftfleetusedso farbyItalyinmissionsabroadisbeingphasedoutorwillbephasedout inthenextdecade.Asstatedin2012bytheItalianNationalArmament Director, there is an “unavoidable requirement for the replacement of 253aircraftbelongingtothreedifferentlineups:18verticaltake‐offair‐ craft AV‐8B of the Navy, 136 AMX and 99 Tornado of the Air Force.”18 The main reason is that many of them have been built in the 1980s or even in the 1970s, and, as far as their life‐cycle reaches thirty or forty years,theycannotassurehighsecuritystandardsfortheaircrew.Their effectivenessalsodecreases,asthey areneither designedto reachcer‐ tain performances, nor adaptable to incorporate new technologies. Moreover, maintaining an ageing aircraft in service beyond a certain timeline becomes more and more inefficient and expensive because of two main reasons. First, when a kind of aircraft is not produced any‐ more worldwide the availability of spare parts to maintain and fix the 18ItalianChamberofDeputies‐DefenceCommittee, AudizionedelSegretariogenera‐ ledellaDifesaeDirettorenazionaledegliarmamenti,generaledisquadraaereaClaudio Debertolissullostatodiavanzamentodelprogrammad’armamentoJointStrikeFighter, 5 December 2012, p. 4, http://documenti.camera.it/_dati/leg16/lavori/stencomm/04/ audiz2/2012/1205/pdf001.pdf. 95 THE ROLE OF ITALIAN FIGHTER AIRCRAFT IN CRISIS MANAGEMENT OPERATIONS: TRENDS AND NEEDS fleetinservedecreasesandtheircostincreases.Tomakejustallbutone comparison,itislikewhathappenswiththesparepartsofavintagecar “autod’epoca” .ThisisparticularlythecaseofTornado,AMXandAV‐ 8B.ThisisoneofthemainreasonstheUKisplanningtoanticipatethe acquisition of F‐35 and the phasing out of its ageing fighter aircraft: maintaining old platforms soon will cost to the British military more poundsthantheacquisitionofnewones.19Inaddition,themoreanair‐ craftbecomesoldandobsoletethemoreeffortsarerequiredtorealizea possible upgrade, both in terms of time and economic investments. To sumup,ifItalywantstomaintainitsabilitytoparticipateincrisisman‐ agement operations involving the use of Air Power, it would be neces‐ sary to procure new fighter aircraft to replace the current ageing plat‐ forms–whichwillbeinevitablyphasedoutinanycase. In this context, a clarification is needed with regard to RPAS. Their use has exponentially increased in the last decade, mainly for ISTAR purposes, but also for Engagement, including Close Air Support for ex‐ ampleinAfghanistan.MilitaryoperationsinLibyahaveprovedthepo‐ tentialityofcombineduseofRPASandfighteraircraft.Inthe2015‐2025 timeframe, RPAS contribution to air operations is expected to grow in quantitative and qualitative terms because these platforms provide a valuable combination of endurance, connectivity, flexibility, autonomy and efficiency.20 Particularly, endurance is increased as human limita‐ tionsdonotapply:forexample,themaximumnumberofhoursapilot can fly per mission through a manned aircraft is extended by aircrew turnoverinthecontrolroompilotingtheRPAS.Moreover,thefactthat RPASdonotputaircrews’lifeatriskdoeseasesomepoliticalconcerns increasinglydiffusedinWesterncountriesregardingtheuseofAirPow‐ er.However,RPASarelikelytocomplementbutnottoreplacemanned fighteraircraftbecauseofanumberofreasons.Infact,fromapolitical pointofview,Europeanauthoritiesandpublicopinion–includingItal‐ 19Interviewdated13December2013. 20 Alessandro Marrone, Alessandro R. Ungaro, “The Evolution of AGC: Power and Technology”,inClaudioCatalano ed. , Globalcommons:threatoropportunity?,Roma, Finmeccanica Research Department, October 2013, pp. 19‐26, http://www.finmeccani ca.com/documents/10437/7958427/body_FIN_OP_Global_Commons_V2.pdf. 96 4. THE MILITARY NEEDS OF ITALIAN ARMED FORCES AND THE F-35 PROGRAMME ianones–aremuchlessateasethanAmericanstohavecombatRPAS operatingwithoutamaninthecockpit,eveniftheyareremotelypiloted fromthecontrolroomandarenotfullyautonomous.Furthermore,Eu‐ ropeanshaveissuedstrictrulesofengagementconcerningmilitaryop‐ erations, and are likely to establish comparably severe limits to the weaponscarriedonbyRPASandtheirrelease,particularlywithregard to automated weapons’ release.21 From a military point of view, RPAS willnotbeabletoreachtheperformancesofa5thgenerationfighterair‐ craft in terms of speed, manoeuvrability and survivability. Therefore, theywillnotbecapabletoreplacefighteraircraftinthemostdemand‐ ing tasks concerning Control of the Air and Engagement roles. It is not byaccidentthatthemajorproducersworldwideofRPAS,theUSandIs‐ rael, have decided to procure on a large scale a 5th generation fighter aircraftsuchasF‐35:theyplantohaveabalancedfleetofmannedand remotely piloted aircraft. The future of Air Power, at least until the 2030‐2040timeframe,willlikelyseeacomplementaryutilizationof5th generation aircraft and RPAS, with almost no possibility of a complete replacement of manned platforms by remotely piloted ones.22 The re‐ quirementtomaintainfighteraircraftcapabilityregardsallmajorEuro‐ peancountries.Withouttheavailabilityofstrategicbomber–whichthe UShavemaintained–theonlywayforEuropeanstocontinueperform‐ ing air‐to‐ground attacks is through this kind of aircraft, whose range can be extended by air‐to‐air refuelling, long‐range weapons systems23 and/orforwardbasing–alsothroughcarriersiftheaircraftareableto landontheseships. Having said that, it is worth considering Italian needs derived from the considered international missions in terms of air capabilities, par‐ ticularlyfighteraircraft.Firstofall,interoperabilityiscrucialsinceItal‐ ianaircapabilitieshavealwaysoperatedwithincoalitionpredominantly composed by NATO members. Most of the time the US had a leading role, although in Bosnia‐Herzegovina and Libya American role was not asdominantasinAfghanistan,KosovoandIraq.WhileinmostcasesUK 21Ibid. 22Interviewsdated10December2013and21January2014. 23Interviewdated21January2014. 97 THE ROLE OF ITALIAN FIGHTER AIRCRAFT IN CRISIS MANAGEMENT OPERATIONS: TRENDS AND NEEDS and France have been major contributors, countries like Germany, the Netherlands, Canada, Denmark and Norway have assumed relevant rolesinsomeoperations.AlsofromaUSperspective,operatingwithina coalitionresultswaymoreconvenientandefficientthanoperatingonits own because it allows to share an operation’s military, economic and politicalcosts.24AccordingtoNATOofficialdefinition,interoperabilityis “the ability to act together coherently, effectively and efficiently to achieve Allied tactical, operational and strategic objectives.”25 In other words, it refers to the ability to jointly operate with allies in terms of platforms, systems, technologies, communications, tactics, procedures, trainingandlogistics.Therearevariousaspectsandlevelsofinteroper‐ ability.Obviously,havingthesameaircraftwiththesamesystems,tech‐ nologies and communications, including the same cockpit and display, allows reaching the highest level of interoperability in crisis manage‐ ment operations, but also in terms of training and logistics. The more the aircraft are interoperable, the more effective is their joint deploy‐ mentintheoperationaltheatre. Second, it is fundamental the capacity to connect aircraft to other platformssuchasfighterorRPAS,aswellastounitsoperatingonthe ground,andtocommandandcontrolcentreswherevertheyarelocated –i.e.intheoperationaltheatreorinthehomeland.Theexponentialin‐ novationexperiencedinthelasttwodecadesintheInformationCom‐ munication Technology ICT field has radically changed the ways economiesandsocietieswork.Obviously,themilitaryhasbeeninvest‐ edbythischangetoo,forcingNATOarmedforcestoexploitnewpoten‐ tialities to connect through the cyberspace single elements in the air, land, sea and space domains. In 2002, at the NATO Summit in Prague, some important steps were taken in this direction, such as the allies’ commitment to acquire a set of core capabilities including a Network Enabled Capability NEC to implement such a transformation pro‐ gress.ThroughNEC,NATOplannedtocombinediversetraditional,pro‐ cedural, technical, organizational and human elements from different 24Interviewdated10December2013. 25 NATO Standardization Agency, NATO Glossary of Terms and Definitions, Edition 2013,http://nsa.nato.int/nsa/zPublic/ap/aap6/AAP‐6.pdf. 98 4. THE MILITARY NEEDS OF ITALIAN ARMED FORCES AND THE F-35 PROGRAMME agencies into a single network, with the objective of enabling interac‐ tion to achieve and maintain significant strategic superiority.26 A plat‐ formisconsidered“netcentric”whenitisfullyabletogatheranddis‐ seminateinformation–andorders–fromandtotheothernodesofthe net.Thisiscrucialinordertolettheaircraftexploitingnotonlytheda‐ ta gathered from its own sensors, but also the huge amount of data madeavailablebyavarietyofsensorsmanagedbyanumberofinter‐ connected nodes. This include satellite imagery, information gathered bySpecialForcesonthegroundorothermannedaircraft,intelligence providedbyRPAS,andsofarandsoon. ThisinturncreatesamuchbetterSA,thataccordingtoNATOofficial definitionisthe“theknowledgeoftheelementsinthebattle‐spacenec‐ essary to make well‐informed decisions.”27 This means a complete, ac‐ curate and real‐time knowledge of the operational theatre including friendly,opponentandotherelementspresentbothintheairspaceand onthesurface onthegroundoratsea .AnefficientSAisthenecessary pre‐conditiontoachieveanumberofgoals.First,itallowsapreciseen‐ gagementoftargets,whichreducestheriskofcollateraldamagesatthe lowest possible level, which means a more limited number of victims among non‐combatants in the operational theatre. This is becoming a more and moreimportantpoliticalcaveatposed bycivilian authorities to military operations, because of a number of reasons including the abilityofoldandnew mediatospreadimmediatelyworldwideimages and videos of collateral damages and the sensitivity of Western public opinioninthisregard.Moreover,suchSAgreatlyincreasestheaircrew capacity to detect, pre‐empt and counter threats, thus augmenting the survivability of the aircraft and its chances to come back home from eachmission.AlreadyduringKosovoaircampaignin1999thishasbeen astrictrequisiteimposedbythepoliticalauthoritiestothemilitaryop‐ eration, and this will likely be a binding condition also in the planning andconductoffuturecrisismanagementoperations. 26MicheleNonesandAlessandroMarrone eds. ,“ThetransformationoftheArmed Forces: the Forza NEC Programme”, in IAI Research Papers, No. 6 October 2012 , http://www.iai.it/content.asp?langid 2&contentid 804. 27NATOStandardizationAgency,NATOGlossaryofTermsandDefinitions,cit. 99 THE ROLE OF ITALIAN FIGHTER AIRCRAFT IN CRISIS MANAGEMENT OPERATIONS: TRENDS AND NEEDS A third crucial need is the radar low‐observability of the platform. The aircraft survivability depends on a number of elements, including speed, manoeuvrability and SA. In this context, the radar low‐ observability – the so‐called “stealthness” – assumes a particular im‐ portance, as it greatly decreases the chances of an aircraft to be shut downbyopponent’sairdefencesystems,anditsaircrewtobekilledor imprisoned.28Specifically,AirObservabilitydependsonanumberoffac‐ tors:theairframe’sdesign,whichmayreducetheradarsignature;spe‐ cific paintings applicable to the aircraft’s surface; the fact that aircraft reliesonnet‐centriccommunicationtoexchangedataanddoesnotre‐ quirepilotstoflyclosetoeachother,ortocommunicateviaradiowhich couldbedetectedbyopponent’ssystems.29 Finally, the fact that all considered crisis management operations have taken place beyond national territory, and even at strategic dis‐ tance like in Iraq and Afghanistan, makes deployability another funda‐ mentalneedforItalianaircapabilities.Thedeployabilityofaircapabili‐ ties can increase proportionally to a number of elements, including: range of the platform, capacity to carry on more fuel, ability to utilize air‐to‐airrefuelling,andthecapacitytotakeoffandlandoncarriers,as well as on basis with limited infrastructures and/or airways. Deploya‐ bilityalsodependsonthesupportpackagerequiredbytheaircraft,for example in terms of logistics: the more logistic support is needed, the lesstheplatformisdeployable.Withregardtocarriers,ithastobeno‐ ticedthattheItalianNavyhastoreplacetheageingAV‐8Bcurrentlyop‐ eratingfromthecarrierCavour,whichareexpectedtobephasedoutby 2020.Withoutaircraftabletolandverticallytheverysameutilityofthe Cavourasacarrierwouldbequestioned,andthedeployabilityofItalian AirPowerwouldbereduced. 28 On 18 January 1991, one of the Italian Tornado participating to First Gulf War wasshutdownbyanIraqiairdefencesystem,andtheaircrew–theMajorGianmarco BelliniandtheCaptainMaurizioCocciolone–hadtoejectfromtheaircraftwhileitwas crashing.TheyhavebeencapturedbyIraqiarmedforces,tortured,andkeptprisoners for44days.TheywerereleasedonMarch3rd,afterIraqwasdefeatedandacceptedthe ceasefire. 29Interviewdated11December2013. 100 4. THE MILITARY NEEDS OF ITALIAN ARMED FORCES AND THE F-35 PROGRAMME The importance of interoperability, net‐centric or network enabled capabilities,deployabilityor“expeditionary”characterofmilitarycapa‐ bilities, has been recognized by a number of official documents issued by the Italian Ministry of Defence and/or by single services, such as: Concetto Strategico del Capo di Stato Maggiore della Difesa 2005 ,30 DottrinaMilitareItaliana 2011 ,31DocumentoProgrammaticoPlurien‐ nale per la Difesa per il triennio 2013‐2015 2013 ,32 Verso il 2018 – Lineeguidaediindirizzostrategico 2013 .Infact,theneedofinterop‐ erable, net‐centric, expeditionary armed forces, including air capabili‐ ties,ispartofthetransformationtheItalianmilitaryexperiencedinthe lasttwodecades,asaresultofthechangesintheinternationalsecurity context,aswellasoftheoperationalexperienceinmissionsabroad.Alt‐ hough the requirements for the fighter aircraft scheduled to replace Tornado,AMXandAV‐8Bhavebeendevelopedinthe1990s,thefollow‐ ingoperationalexperienceinKosovo,AfghanistanandLibyahasfurther confirmedthecharactersofsuchrequirements.33 4.3 THIRD KEY QUESTION: WHAT PROCUREMENT OPTIONS ARE AVAILABLE TO ACQUIRE THIS KIND OF AIR CAPABILITIES? IfitisassumedthatkeepingthecapacitytoprojectAirPowerthrough crisis management operations does serve Italian defence and foreign policy,andultimatelyItaly’snationalinterests;ifitisassumedthatcur‐ rentItalianfighteraircraftfleetneedstobereplacedinthenextdecade 30ItalianMinistryofDefence‐DefenceGeneralStaff,IlconcettostrategicodelCapodi StatoMaggioredellaDifesa,cit. 31 Italian Ministry of Defence‐Defence General Staff, La dottrina militare italiana, 2011, http://www.difesa.it/SMD_/Staff/Reparti/III/CID/Dottrina/Pagine/Dottrina_Mili tare_Italiana.aspx. 32 Italian Ministry of Defence, Documento Programmatico Pluriennale per la Difesa per il triennio 2013‐2015, April 2013, http://www.difesa.it/Content/Documents/DPP_ 2013_2015.pdf. 33Interviewdated21January2014. 101 THE ROLE OF ITALIAN FIGHTER AIRCRAFT IN CRISIS MANAGEMENT OPERATIONS: TRENDS AND NEEDS by manned aircraft which should be interoperable, net‐centric, low‐ observable and deployable; then the next key question for civilian and militarypolicy‐makersiswhatprocurementoptionsareavailabletoac‐ quirethekindofaircapabilitiesneededbyItaly. In theory, a first option is to develop a European procurement pro‐ gramme bringing together Italy and other main European countries in thefieldofdefence–namelyFrance,GermanyandtheUnitedKingdom – to develop and produce a 5th generation fighter aircraft. On the one hand,ifthishadbeendone,itwouldhaveprovidedthehighestlevelof operational sovereignty34 and produced concrete positive consequenc‐ es,suchasaccesstonewtechnologies,updatesorupgrades,andbetter security of supply, as well as the greatest technological and industrial return on European industries.35 On the other hand, this option would haveimpliedhighercosts,becauseEuropeangovernmentsshouldhave borneontheirownalltheresearchanddevelopmentcostswithoutrely‐ ing on US investments, and without enjoying the decrease of unitary costsbroughtbythelargenumberofaircraftproducedbyatransatlan‐ ticprogramme.Inanycase,suchaninvestmentshouldhavebeendone inthemid‐1990sthroughanimmediateandsignificantEuropeanfund‐ ingofresearchanddevelopmentactivities,inordertodeliverafighter capability by 2020‐2025. In fact, twenty/twenty‐five years have been thetime‐spanneededbyotherlarge‐scaleandhigh‐techEuropeanpro‐ 34 The definitions of “operational sovereignty” vary according to the subject ana‐ lyzed.Forexample,fromanindustrial/technologicalperspective,thetermindicatesthe ability to use the respective armed forces’ capabilities with appropriate government control and without third party constraints. It is understood to rely on access to tech‐ nology and definition for development, configuration management, and upgrade and security of supply for availability assurance , dealing with globalization of the supply chain.Similarly,afurtherdefinitionmoreclosetoaplatformperspectivecanbededuct‐ edbyquotingtheUKGeneralSirKevinO’Donoghue:“operationalsovereigntyistheabil‐ itytousetheplatformanditsweaponssystemanditsISTARsystemsinthewaywe,the UK,wishtoatthetimeandplaceofourchoosing”.HouseofCommons‐DefenceCommit‐ tee, DefenceEquipment2009,ThirdReportofSession2008‐09 HC107 ,http://www. publications.parliament.uk/pa/cm200809/cmselect/cmdfence/107/8112501.htm. 35MicheleNones,GiovanniGaspariniandAlessandroMarrone,“EuropeandtheF‐35 JointStrikeFighter JSF Program”,inIAIQuaderni.EnglishSeries,No.16 July2009 , p.8,http://www.iai.it/content.asp?langid 2&contentid 143. 102 4. THE MILITARY NEEDS OF ITALIAN ARMED FORCES AND THE F-35 PROGRAMME curement programmes, such as Eurofighter, from the beginning of re‐ searchactivitiestothedeliveryofthefirstoperationalaircraft.Europe‐ ans countries decided not to make such an investment, either because they preferred to allocate resources in a national procurement pro‐ gramme, like France, or because they opted to cut defence budget to harvesttheso‐called“peacedividend,”likeGermanyandothers.Today there is no political will in Europe to undertake this path, and even if European countries will decide to reinvest in this kind of programme, thefirstaircraftwouldnotbeavailablebefore2035.Insum,thisoption is off the table because of the choices made by major European coun‐ tries back in the 1990s. Military procurement is a long‐term process, therefore certain choices have to be made well before capability gaps arises. Theoretically,asecondoptiontoobtaintheaircapabilitiesneededby Italytoreplacetheoldoneswouldbetodevelopandbuilda5thgenera‐ tion, ground‐attack version of Eurofighter, the 4th generation air‐to‐air fighter aircraft developed by Germany, Italy, Spain and the UK in the 1980sandacquiredinthe2000s.Thiswouldhavehadpositivebenefits intermsofoperationalsovereignty,industrialandtechnologicalreturn. Moreover,iftheEurofighterfleetcurrentlyusedforair‐to‐airsuperiori‐ ty would have been coupled with a ground‐attack version of the same aircraft,interoperabilitywithinItalianaircapabilitieswouldhavebeen evengreater.ThisoptionhasbeensubjectofdebateinItalyinJanuary 2014,whenagroupofprogressivelaw‐makersoftheItalianParliament putforwardtheideatoreducethenumberofF‐35tobeprocuredand increasethenumberofEurofighterasapossiblewaytorealizebudget‐ ary savings and to support European and Italian defence industry.36 Previously, the Italian participation to the F‐35 programme has been criticised by other columnists supporting the continuation of the Eu‐ rofighterprogramme.37However,thechoicetomakeEurofighterafully‐ 36 Alberto Custodero, “Costano troppo, megliogli Eurofighter: il Pd vuol dimezzare l’acquistodegliF35”,in Repubblica, 1February2014,http://www.repubblica.it/ politi‐ ca/2014/02/01/news/f35_pd_dimezza_acquisto‐77429492. 37GianandreaGaiani,“F‐35:Chihapauradimettercilafaccia?”,in AnalisidiDifesa, 15July2013,http://www.analisidifesa.it/?p 4374. 103 THE ROLE OF ITALIAN FIGHTER AIRCRAFT IN CRISIS MANAGEMENT OPERATIONS: TRENDS AND NEEDS fledged ground attack aircraft should have been taken in the early 2000s, through significant European joint investments in research and developmentactivities,aimingtomodifyanaircraftwhichwasnotorig‐ inallydesignedtofulfilsucharole.Again,thishasnotbeendonebyEu‐ ropeans, while the aforementioned absence of political will in Europe hasbeenepitomizedbythereductionanddelaysaffectingthepurchase ofEurofighter’s3rdtranche.Evenifsuchapoliticalwillmaterialize,the resultswouldnotbeavailablebefore2025.Besides,inrecentyearsthe UKhasmadeaninvestmenttodevelopaground‐attackversionofpart ofitsEurofighterfleet,mainlyinordertofilltheexistinggapuntiltheF‐ 35 will be procured, albeit with contested results. In fact, it is unlikely thatamodifiedversionofa4thgenerationaircraftcouldreachthesame advancedtechnologicallevelensuredbya5thgenerationaircraft,forin‐ stance in terms of low‐observability, network enabled capabilities and data fusion.38 The Eurofighter was designed in the 1980s to perform a certain role and without the “open architecture” indispensable to pro‐ ceed to a further transformation or to plug new systems in – which wouldhaveimpliedsignificantinvestmentsanduncertainresultsinre‐ gard to the attainable technological level.39 A high technological level willberequiredinfutureairoperationsinordertoensurethesurviva‐ bilityoftheaircraft.40Assuch,AirForcesthatwilloperateunderacer‐ taintechnologicalthresholdarelikelytobeexcludedbythecoregroup ofcountriesrunningmissionsabroad.Thereasonisthatthepresencein theatreofaircraftwithoutlowobservabilityfeaturescouldendangerthe rest of low observable platforms by signalling to enemy radars the air sortie.41Inanycase,asamatteroffact,alsothisoptionisoffthetable because of the decisions made by European countries in the last two decades.42 ThethirdandlastoptiontosatisfyItalianmilitaryneedsintermsof 38Interviewsdated10November2013,10December2013,11December2013,23 January2014. 39Interview21January2014. 40Interviewdated10December2013. 41Interviewsdated10November2013and11December2013. 42Interviewdated10November2013. 104 4. THE MILITARY NEEDS OF ITALIAN ARMED FORCES AND THE F-35 PROGRAMME fighteraircraftistoacquireF‐35.TheF‐35isasupersonic,single‐seat, single‐engine, fighter bomber. Three different variants are being pro‐ duced: a Conventional Take‐Off and Landing version CTOL, F‐35A ; a ShortTake‐OffandVerticalLandingversion STOVLF‐35B ,fittedwith auniquepropulsionsystemthatallowsittooperatefrommedium‐sized shipsandlimitedairstrips,drawingupontheexperiencegatheredwith theAV‐8B;aCarrierVersion CV,F‐35C ,deemedtotakeofffromcon‐ ventionalaircraftcarriersequippedwithCatapultAssistedTakeOffBut ArrestedRecovery CATOBAR .Itisestimatedthatmorethan3,100F‐ 35aircraftwillbeprocured,2,44343ofwhichfortheUSAirForce,Navy andMarineCorps,andtherestforother12countries:Australia,Canada, Denmark,Japan,Israel,Italy,theNetherlands,Norway,Singapore,South Korea, Turkey and the United Kingdom. That means that the F‐35 will becomeinthenextdecadethefighteraircraftmostusedworldwide,and the “backbone of next generation NATO operations.”44 From a US per‐ spective,theF‐35asmultiroleaircraftwillreplaceF‐16,F‐18andother ageingfighteraircrafttocarryontasksincluding:deepattack;CloseAir Supportwithgreataccuracy;thewholerangeofISTARtasks;jamming andelectronicwarfaretasks;complementingF‐22fighter,whichispro‐ ducedinlimitednumbers,toensureairsuperiority.45 The F‐35 presents the advanced features typical of 5th generation fighteraircraft.First,itisaplatformequippedwithsensorsandcompu‐ tingcapacityfordatafusioninanet‐centricperspective.Thatmeansthe pilotdoesnotreceiveseparatedatafromdifferentsources,whichhehas tomentallycombineintoacoherentpicture:heratherdirectlyreceives a single, integrated and accurate picture with all data already verified, correlated and fused.46 According to testing pilots, this data fusion is a 43 US Government Accountability Office, F‐35 Joint StrikeFighter: Program has im‐ provedinsomeareasbutaffordabilitychallengesandotherrisksremain,17April2013, http://www.gao.gov/assets/660/653857.pdf. 44JAPCC,“F‐35,TheBackboneofNextGenerationNATOOperations”,in JAPCCJour‐ nal, No. 18 Autumn‐Winter 2013 , pp. 74‐78, http://www.japcc.org/publications/ journal/Journal/2013‐09‐23‐JAPCC_Journal_Ed‐18_web.pdf. 45Interviewdated10December2013. 46Ibid. 105 THE ROLE OF ITALIAN FIGHTER AIRCRAFT IN CRISIS MANAGEMENT OPERATIONS: TRENDS AND NEEDS leapforwardintermsofSituationalAwareness.47BecauseofF‐35’snet‐ centriccharacter,informationcanbeimmediatelysharedwithotherF‐ 35 through Link 16 data‐link. This means that every aircraft provides thepilotagreaterSituationalAwarenessthankstobothitssensorsuite˗ whichincludesradar,infraredsensors,electro‐opticalcamera,electron‐ icwarfaresystems˗andthoseofotheraircraftflyingindifferentparts of the battle‐space. Data fusion from different sensors also increases cyber‐security of air operations, because if one sensor is disrupted, jammed or spoofed, reliable data can be provided by other sensors.48 Theincreasedrangeofsensors,theirnet‐centric character,data fusion andthefactthatthesamepictureisprovidedtoallpilotsflyingF‐35in‐ creaseboththesurvivabilityoftheaircraftandtheprecisionofengage‐ ment thanksalsotoPrecisionGuidedMunitions thusreducingtherisk ofcollateral damages.Thesecondcharacterofa 5thgenerationaircraft liketheF‐35isitslowobservability.Thisisensuredbyanumberofel‐ ements,forexample,thedesignoftheairframeandthefactthatweap‐ onsarestoredininternalbays,whichreduceaircraft’sradarsignature. A specific painting also reduces aircraft’s observability, while the fact that information can be shared without radio communication prevents communicationstobecapturedbyenemyradars.Thelowobservability hasthepotentialitytoradicallychangetacticsandwaystoconductair operations,asdemonstratedbythefirstpilots’training.49 Moreover,F‐35’sinternalbays–whereweaponsarelocated–allow greaterspeedandmanoeuvrabilityduringmissionswhentheaircraftis loaded up of missiles and other weapons, because the platform’s aero‐ dynamics is not affected by additional external volumes. This, in turn, reduces the fuel consumption, while increasing aircraft range and per‐ sistence. That means also the F‐35 needs less air‐to‐air refuelling than 4th generation aircraft, thus ensuring greater deployability in crisis managementoperations.Deployabilityisalsoimprovedbythefactthat the F‐35 requires less support packages than 4th generation aircraft, since it is a multirole platform able to perform simultaneously ISTAR, 47Interviewdated19November2013 a . b . 49Interviewsdated19November2013 b and10December2013. 48Interviewdated19November2013 106 4. THE MILITARY NEEDS OF ITALIAN ARMED FORCES AND THE F-35 PROGRAMME electronic warfare and Engagement, with high survivability.50 At the sametime,interoperabilityamongthethreeF‐35variantsisensuredby the high degree of commonalities, in particular regarding cockpit, mis‐ sions systems, engine, communication systems and pilot’s helmets.51 Themaintenanceandrepairactivitiesalsobenefitfromthishighdegree of commonalities, because in most cases the same spare parts can be usedforallthreevariantsoftheF‐35.TheverysamefacttheF‐35will replacethreedifferentaircraftoftheItalianNavyandAirForces Tor‐ nado, AMX and AV‐8B with three different maintenance and logistics requirementswillreducethecosttooperateandmaintainthemthrough their life‐cycle. Thanks to the significant commonalities among the dif‐ ferentversionsoftheF‐35,thepresenceofbothF‐35AandF‐35Bwithin the Italian fleet should not represent a problem, also because the Air Force is already used to different versions for example of Tornados – namely ECR and IDS versions.52 Interoperability among US and NATO allieswillbegreaterforthosecountriesacquiringF‐35becausetheair‐ craftarethesame,producedbythesameassemblylines.Theonlymain difference will regard the software, as single nations require different software,forexample,tofitdiverseweaponssystemsproducedbyna‐ tionalindustries.Yet,thisdoesnotcreateaproblemintermsofinterop‐ erability or maintenance because the software’ upgrade is more eco‐ nomicandaffordablethanchangesinthehardware53–asithappensfor civilianinformationandcommunicationtechnology. Net‐centric and low observability features make the F‐35 different from advanced 4th generation aircraft such as Eurofighter and Rafale. TheF‐35isinfacta5thgenerationmultiroleaircraft,whosehighsurviv‐ abilityandinteroperabilitymakeitsuitabletobedeployedfortasksin distanttheatres.54 In conclusion, among the three theoretical possibilities, the F‐35 is 50Interview19November2013 a ,10December2013,11December2013. a . 52Interviewdated6December2013. 53Interviewdated19November2013 b . 54MicheleNones,GiovanniGaspariniandAlessandroMarrone,“EuropeandtheF‐35 JointStrikeFighter JSF Program”,cit.,pp.9‐10. 51Interviewdated19November2013 107 THE ROLE OF ITALIAN FIGHTER AIRCRAFT IN CRISIS MANAGEMENT OPERATIONS: TRENDS AND NEEDS the only available option for Italy to procure an interoperable, net‐ centric,low‐observableandhighlydeployablefighteraircraft. This option has been debated in Italy, particularly since 2012, and differentcriticshavebeenraisedbythoseopposingtheprocurementof thisaircraft.55AfirstcriticregardsthehighcostoftheF‐35incompari‐ sonwith otherfighter aircraft,with differentestimatesaired bydiffer‐ entsources,suchasthenewscirculatedonJune2013thateachF‐35to be acquired by Italy will cost 155 million.56 Some of these critics are basedonin‐correct,partialorolddata.Infact,asexplainedinthenext chapter on the F‐35 programme and Italy, the unitary cost of each air‐ craft decreases over time, because the overall non‐recurrent costs are subdivided into greater number of produced units – as it happens to otherlarge‐scalecivilianproductions.WhilethefirstF‐35Aprocuredby theUSdidcost215milliondollar,thefirstF‐35tobeacquiredbyItaly will cost around 130 million dollar and the price will further decrease downto85millioninthenextphaseoffullrateproduction. Asecondkindofobjectionaffirmsthatsuchan“enormousandpro‐ longedprocurementprogrammeisunabletoguaranteepeaceandsecu‐ ritybecauseitisdesignedforaglobalcontext theColdWar different fromtoday’sone.”57However,thisprogrammebegunseveralyearsafter the collapse of the Soviet Union, taking into account the uncertainties andchangingcharacterofthecurrentinternationalsystem.Indeed,the F‐35 is not designed with the primary purpose to perform air‐to‐air combat,likepreviousUSplatformssuchastheF‐22.TheF‐35israther designedtobeamulti‐rolefighter,withprimaryair‐to‐groundcapacity andtheabilitytocontributetoair‐to‐aircombat.58Thatmeansitisbuilt 55ForananalysisofthecriticsonF‐35procurementprogrammeseeMicheleNones, “IlcaproespiatorioF‐35”,presentationholdattheconferenceorganizedbytheItalian CentreforAeronauticalMilitaryStudies“GiulioDohuet”on14May2013,http://www. aeronautica.difesa.it/News/Pagine/IlCaproEspiatorioF‐35.aspx. 56 Luigi Grassia, “F35, pieno di guai ma difficile da eliminare”, in La Stampa, 27 June 2013, http://www.lastampa.it/2013/06/27/italia/cronache/f‐pieno‐di‐guai‐ma‐difficile‐ da‐eliminare‐2tnKEoVCydUAtDlmwAKoaK/pagina.html. 57CampagnaTaglialealiallearmi, CacciaF‐35Laveritàoltrel’opacità,18February 2014,http://www.disarmo.org/nof35/docs/4642.pdf. 58Indeed,Canada,theNetherlandsandNorwaywilluseF‐35aircraftalsoforair‐to‐ 108 4. THE MILITARY NEEDS OF ITALIAN ARMED FORCES AND THE F-35 PROGRAMME to fulfil the kinds of tasks experienced in international missions in the last24years,suchassuppressionofenemyairdefenceand/orprecise striketoestablishandenforceano‐flyzone,CloseAirSupporttoground troops deployed in the operational theatre subject to ground‐based threats,andISTAR. A third group of critics denounces the technical problems occurred during the F‐35 procurement programme, for example regarding the aircraft’s software, engine and helmets. Again, some of the critics are based on in‐correct or partial data. For example, the fact that the air‐ craft’s design makes it more difficult for the pilot to see directly back‐ wardsbymovinghishead59isnotarealissuebecause,asmentionedbe‐ fore, the pilot receives straight in the helmet an integrated picture of bothimagesanddatacomingfromthesixcamerasmountedindifferent partsoftheaircraft,aswellasfromothersensorspositionednotonlyon hisaircraft,butalsoonotherF‐35ordifferentplatformspartofthemili‐ tarynet.Incontrast,othercriticsarewell‐groundedandbaseduponre‐ altechnicalproblemsoccurredduringtheprogramme.Thekeyissueis whether these real problems are a normal part of the research, devel‐ opment and testing activities, as for any technologically advanced pro‐ curement programme, or they are so exceptional to make the aircraft notworthytobeprocured.Attheendoftheday,threeofthemosthigh‐ tech armed forces in the world – American, British and Israeli ones – have chosen to buy an overall number of 2,600 F‐35, while other 556 aircraft are set to be procured by technologically advanced militaries such those of Australia, Canada, Denmark, Japan, Netherlands, Norway andSouthKorea.Thisdemonstratesthat,despiteitstechnicalproblems, the F‐35 represents the next Air Power’s military and technological frontier, a frontier which NATO members and partners seem deter‐ minedtoexplore. airoperations. 59GianlucaDiFeo,“F‐35:tuttalaverità”,inL’Espresso,26June2013,http://espres‐ so.repubblica.it/attualita/cronaca/2013/06/26/news/f35‐tutta‐la‐verita‐1.55939. 109 THE ROLE OF ITALIAN FIGHTER AIRCRAFT IN CRISIS MANAGEMENT OPERATIONS: TRENDS AND NEEDS 4.4 FORTH KEY QUESTION: IT IS BETTER TO BUY F-35 “OFF-THE-SHELF” OR TO PARTICIPATE IN THE MULTINATIONAL PROCUREMENT PROGRAMME? IfitisassumedthattheF‐35istheonlyavailableoptionto procurean interoperable,net‐centric,low‐observableandhighlydeployablefighter aircraft to satisfy Italy’s military needs to participate in crisis manage‐ mentoperations,thelastkeyquestionforpolicy‐makersregardshowto procureit.Inprinciple,twooptionsareavailable.Ontheonehand,one mightbuyit“off‐the‐shelf,”thatmeanstobuytheaircraftinthemarket‐ place when it is already developed and produced on a large scale – in Italianitwouldbesaid“chiaviinmano.”Ontheotherhand,onemight participateinitsdevelopmentandproduction,investingintheresearch anddevelopmentphasesandinvolvingnationalindustries. Fromamilitarypointofview,participatingfromthebeginninginthe procurementprogrammebringsthreemainpositiveeffects.First,ital‐ lowstoreceivethefirstaircraftalreadyin2016andtoproceedwiththe replacementoftheageingfleet–Tornado,AMX,AV‐8B–withoutexpe‐ riencingcapabilitiesgap.Thisensurestokeeptheabilitytoparticipate in missions abroad in the 2015‐2025 timeframe, and to not spend fur‐ therfundstoleaseaircrafttofilleventualgaps,ashappenedwiththeF‐ 16intherecentpast.Second,participationinthedevelopmentandpro‐ ductionoftheaircraftincreasestheoperationalsovereignty,60whichis near‐zeroincaseofthe“off‐the‐shelf”acquisition.Thatmeansinteralia being more able to operate, modify and upgrade the aircraft according to national needs and timeline. Third, being a fully‐fledged part of the programme allows Italian pilots to start sooner rather than later their training with American and other aircrews, with obvious benefits in termsofinteroperabilitywithUSandmajorNATOpartners. On the other hand, participation in the procurement programme bringstwomoreadditionalcosts.First,ItalyalsocontributedtotheF‐35 research and development activities by investing 1,028 million euro in 60Interviewdated10December2013. 110 4. THE MILITARY NEEDS OF ITALIAN ARMED FORCES AND THE F-35 PROGRAMME 2002.61Second,thebuiltupoftheFinalAssemblyandCheckOut FACO ofCamericosted775millioneuro.62Bothfundscouldhavebeensaved by acquiring F‐35 “off‐the‐shelf.” However, the Italian military would have needed to build a proper capacity for maintenance, upgrade and logisticstooperatethefleetof90F‐35–bothCTOLandSTOVLversions –forthenextthreeorfourdecadesinanycase.ThecreationofCameri FACOaspartoftheprocurementprogrammemeansthatItalianMinis‐ tryofDefencewillnotspendfurtherbudgettobuildaredundantfacili‐ ty,astheFACOisalreadysettobecometheMaintenanceRepairOver‐ haul and Upgrade MRO&U centre for Italian F‐35. This prevents the expensive duplication experienced in past procurement programmes, whentherewerebothanindustrialfacilityfortheFACOandamilitary facilityfortheMRO&U.Hence,thisensuresamoreeffectiveandefficient management of the aircraft through its entire life‐cycle.63 By using the samefacilityfortheentireItalianfleetofF‐35,significantsavingscanbe made, while a more rapid replacement of spare parts can also be fa‐ voured.64SincetheF‐35isexpectedtoremaininservicefor35‐40years, this would be a significant improvement in the way funds are spent in defence procurements, something which could not happen if Italy had bought F‐35 “off‐the‐shelf.” Moreover, having the FACO within the Camerimilitarymulti‐functionalcenterforaero‐tacticalaircraftdoesal‐ lowthearmedforcestobetterknowtheplatformalreadyduringtheas‐ semblyphases,thusincreasingoperationalsovereignty.65 A third issue concerning whether participating in the procurement programme or buying F‐35 “off‐the‐shelf” regards the timeline of air‐ craft’s acquisition and its related cost. As in any procurement pro‐ gramme, the F‐35’s cost curve decreases over time and then stabilizes itself. The very first aircraft are more expensive because they bear the 61Nothwithstandingtherisingcostsoftheresearchanddevelopmentactivities,Ital‐ iancontributiondidnotincreaseastheUnitedStatestookchargeoftheseextracosts. 62 Italian Chamber of Deputies‐Defence Committee, Programma pluriennale di A/R n. SMD 02/2009…, 25 March 2009, http://documenti.camera.it/leg16/resoconti/com missioni/bollettini/pdf/2009/03/25/leg.16.bol0157.data20090325.com04.pdf. 63Interviewdated6December2013. 64Interviewdated21January2014. 65Interviewdated6December2013. 111 THE ROLE OF ITALIAN FIGHTER AIRCRAFT IN CRISIS MANAGEMENT OPERATIONS: TRENDS AND NEEDS cost,delaysandproblemsoccurredinthedevelopmentandproduction phases of a new platform. Then, the so‐called “learning curve” makes productionmoreefficient,andtheincreasenumberofaircraftproduced peryearbringsunitarycostsdown–asithappensincivilianproduction too.ThisisoneofthereasonsF‐35 productionisstructuredaccording toseveralLowRateInitialProductionPhases LRIP ,beforemovingto thefullrateproduction.Thebillofthefirstaircraftproducedbythefirst LRIP LRIP1 andacquiredbytheUSwasaround215milliondollar.In contrast, the cost of the aircraft being produced by the sixth LRIP LRIP6 , which is going to be acquired by the US, the UK and Italy, shrinkstoaround130milliondollar–asimilarcosttoalessadvanced 4th generation fighter aircraft. According to Lockheed Martin’s official estimates, the F‐35 aircraft produced by the full rate production will cost about 85 million dollar. This is important because each country paystheaircraftprocuredtheexactcostofeverydifferentLRIP,which meansdifferentcostsovertime.ItalyhaschosentostartbuyingF‐35at LRIP6inordertobalance,ontheonehand,theneedtoavoidcapability gaps since ageing aircraft will inevitably phased out, and on the other hand, the goal to save money by paying a lower price in comparison withthefirstfiveLRIPs.IfItalyhadprocuredF‐35“off‐the‐shelf,”itmay haveenteredLRIP8orLRIP9thussavingfewdozensofmillionsofeuro. However,inthiscase,itshouldalsobeconsideredthecoststomaintain in use the ageing Tornado and AMX fleet for more years, and/or costs associated with leasing other platforms to fill eventual capability gaps. Inthepast,Italyfacedasimilarchoiceafterdecidingtoextendthelifeof the ageing Starfighter: the delays of the Eurofighter programme re‐ quired gap fillers identified initially in the Tornado ADV’s leased from UK whichwasbyfarmoreexpensivethanenvisaged andlaterinF‐16 leased from the US. The expenditures made to lease these aircraft did notentailanybenefitintermsofindustrialandtechnologicalreturnsfor Italiandefenceindustry. Fromadefenceindustrialpolicy’spointofview,66themaindifference 66ForadetailedhistoryofItalianaeronauticindustryseeGregoryAlegi, Involoda 100anni.Lastoriadell’industriaaeronauticaitalianadal1913adAleniaAermacchi,No‐ vara,DeAgostini,2013. 112 4. THE MILITARY NEEDS OF ITALIAN ARMED FORCES AND THE F-35 PROGRAMME between participating in the procurement programme and acquiring aircraft“off‐the‐shelf”isthatindustrialreturn,technologytransferand creation of qualified jobs is much lower in the second case than in the firstone.InItaly,theNationalArmamentsDirector SegretariatoGener‐ aleDifesa/DirezioneNazionaleArmamentiSGD/DNA hasthemandate tosafeguardandsupportItaliandefenceindustrybyLaw.67TheNation‐ al Armaments Director, in liaison with single technical services arma‐ mentoffices,underthepoliticalauthorityoftheMinistryofDefence,has traditionally worked to conduct a defence industrial policy coherent withtheoperationalneedsofthearmedforces. Asmentionedbefore,Europeansdidnotinvestinafollow‐upofthe Eurofighterinthe1990sand2000s.Atthesametime,theUSofferedto majorEuropeanalliesthepossibilitytojointheF‐35procurementpro‐ gramme.Fromadefenceindustrialpolicy’spointofview,theItaliande‐ cisiontojointhismultinational,US‐ledprogrammemadesensebecause of two main reasons. First, it allowed enjoying a positive industrial re‐ turnintermsofproductionandmaintenance,inlinewithpreviousex‐ periences.Thisreturnalsoinvolvesadvancedtechnologies,forexample withregardtothemachinerynecessarytoworkontheaircraftandthe related know‐how.68 Above all, it provided the opportunity to partici‐ pateinthedevelopmentactivities,aswellasintheproductionandas‐ semblyphases.ThiswasauniqueopportunitytolettheItalianindustry worknotonlyon4thgenerationaircraftbutalsoon5thgenerationones, whichisatechnologicalleapforwardwithsignificantandpositiveindus‐ trialeffects.69 Besidestheprimarymilitaryrationaletoreplaceageingandobsolete aircraftwithnewones,andthesecondaryindustrialrationale,twoother reasonsmotivatethechoicetojointheF‐35procurementprogramme.70 67Art.41oftheLegislativeDecreeNo.66of15March2010:Codicedell’ordinamento militare G.U. No. 106 of 8 May 2010 , p. 66, http://www.normattiva.it/uri‐res/N2Ls? urn:nir:stato:decreto‐legislativo:2010‐03‐15;66. 68Interviewdated23January2014. 69Interviewsdated21January2014and23January2014. 70 Alessandro Marrone, “Italy and the F‐35: Rationales and costs”, in International Journal,Vol.68,No.1 Winter2012‐13 ,pp.31‐48. 113 THE ROLE OF ITALIAN FIGHTER AIRCRAFT IN CRISIS MANAGEMENT OPERATIONS: TRENDS AND NEEDS First, it is a multinational programme envisaging the participation of eight Allied countries, including seven NATO members and three EU members. The multinational rationale is important as far as joint pro‐ curements not only ensures greater interoperability, but also contrib‐ utes to share the costs of programmes which are simply un‐affordable on a national basis. Finally, it enhances defence and political ties with partnercountries.Theforthrationaleistransatlantic.Asmentionedbe‐ fore,theUSisstillItaly’smainallyinthedefencefield.Infact,whiledur‐ ingtheColdWaritrepresentedthebedrockofEuropeanandItalianse‐ curity, also in the post‐Cold War period the US has led the majority of crisis management operations in which Italy was involved, from Iraq andBosnia‐HerzegovinatoKosovoandAfghanistan.Inthiscontext,the defence procurement cooperation is part of a wider transatlantic rela‐ tion,whichovertheyearshasbeenconsideredbydifferentItaliangov‐ ernmentoneoftheprioritiesofItaly’sdefenceandforeignpolicy.71 71 On the link between political, diplomatic and defence cooperation between Italy and the US in the post‐Cold War period see, among others, Alessandro Marrone and AlessandroR.Ungaro,“TherelationsbetweenUnitedStatesofAmericaandItalyinthe post‐ColdWarperiod:adefenseindustrialperspective”,in CahiersdelaMéditerranée, 2014, forthcoming . 114 5. The F-35 programme and Italy: the industrial perspective This chapter discusses the industrial aspects of the F‐35 multinational programmeandItalianparticipationinit. 5.1 THE BEST VALUE FOR MONEY APPROACH TheF‐35isamultinationalprocurementprogrammeledbytheUSwith eightparticipatingcountries:Australia,Canada,Denmark,UnitedKing‐ dom, Italy, the Netherlands, Norway and Turkey. Moreover, Israel and JapanhaveselectedtheF‐35AthroughtheForeignMilitarySales FMS processastheyarenotfullyF‐35partners.SouthKoreahasalsodecided topurchase40F‐35,withdeliveriesscheduledfrom2018to2021inthe context of the F‐X III competition.1 Finally, Singapore is considering to purchase the F‐35 in the near future to replace the F‐16 fighter fleet.2 Overall,theJSFprocurementvolumeiscurrentlyestimatedtobemore than 3,000 F‐35 aircraft, 2,4433 for the US Air Force, Navy and Marine Corps and the rest distributed according to partner’s procurement plans.4 1AndreaShalal‐Esa,“S.KoreaorderwoulddriveF‐35per‐planecostlower”,inReuters, 26 November 2013, http://www.reuters.com/article/2013/11/26/lockheed‐fighter‐ korea‐idUSL2N0JB24120131126. 2“Singaporesaysin‘noparticularhurry’tobuyLockheedF‐35jets”,in Reuters,12 December 2013, http://www.reuters.com/article/2013/12/13/us‐lockheed‐fighter‐id USBRE9BC02J20131213. 3USGovernmentAccountabilityOffice,F‐35JointStrikeFighter…,cit. 4 Lockheed Martin, F35 Fast‐Facts, February 2014, https://www.f35.com/assets/ 115 THE ROLE OF ITALIAN FIGHTER AIRCRAFT IN CRISIS MANAGEMENT OPERATIONS: TRENDS AND NEEDS Table3.F‐35’sacquisitionplans Customer PlannedAircraft USAirForce 1,763 F‐35A USNavy 260 F‐35C USMarineCorps 340 F‐35B/80 F‐35C UKRoyalAirForce/RoyalNavy 138 F‐35B Turkey 100 F‐35A Australia 100 F‐35A Italy 60 F‐35A/30 F‐35B Canada 65 F‐35A Norway 52 F‐35A Japan 42 F‐35A 20optional SouthKorea 40F‐35A Netherlands 37 F‐35A Denmark 30 F‐35A Israel 19 F‐35A Total 3,156 Withinthisprocurementvolume,416F‐35areexpectedtobedelivered toNATOcountries,withanestimated49aircraftoperatinginEuropeby 2018.5Thefactthatseveralnewcountries,besidestheninemembersof the procurement programme, have decided to acquire the F‐35 in last yearsconfirmstheappealoftheaircrafttotheglobalmarketplace. In addition, the overall volume of F‐35 is likely to increase in the 2020‐2030 timeframe through FMS process, outside the perimeter of procurement’s partner countries. In fact, since a significant share of worldwidefighterfleetshastobereplacedinthenextfuture,itcanbe assumedthattheF‐35willlikelybeoneofthepreferredchoicesmade bygovernmentstomodernizetheirairfleet–asitisalreadyhappening insomeAsia‐Pacificcountries.TheF‐35isindeedlikelytorepeatinthe uploads/downloads/13567/f‐35fast_factsjfebruary2014.pdf; Anthony Deutsch and An‐ dreaShalal‐Esa,“Dutchtopurchase37F‐35fighterplanes‐sources”,17September2013, in Reuters, http://www.reuters.com/article/2013/09/17/us‐dutch‐fighter‐f‐idUSBRE 98G09I20130917. 5“F‐35,TheBackboneoftheNextGenerationNATOOperations”,cit. 116 5. THE F-35 PROGRAMME AND ITALY: THE INDUSTRIAL PERSPECTIVE nextdecadestheworldwidediffusionexperiencedbytheF‐16,particu‐ larly–butnotonly–inthoseUSalliedcountriesalreadyfamiliarwith the F‐16. The more governments purchase F‐35, the more benefits re‐ ceive partner countries like Italy: production unitary costs decrease thankstolargerprocurementvolumes;sustainmentcostsareexpected toshrinksincetherewillbemoresparepartsproducedanddistributed worldwide;6upgradingcostscanbesharedbymorecountriesandthus becominglessexpensive;7thecomponentsproducedbynationalindus‐ triesinvolvedintheprogramme,suchasAleniaAermacchi,willincrease inordertosupplyF‐35ordersbynewcustomers. TheF‐35programmeentailsaradicalchangeofthemindsetandway to envisage a multinational procurement programme in the defence field.Infact,comparedtoothermajorinternationalcollaborations such asTornado,Eurofighter,A400MandMeteor ,itisbasedontheprinciple ofthebestvalueformoneyandnotontheprincipleofjusteretour.The procurementprocedureisindeedquitedifferent fromthepast.First,a participating country formulates its national requests in terms of air‐ craftrequirements,volumeandvarianttotheF‐35JointProgrammeOf‐ fice JPO .Then,theJPOformulatesanoverallrequesttotheprimecon‐ tractorLockheedMartin.Sucharequestindicatesthenumberofaircraft tobuildforeachvariant,thebasicaircraftrequirementsandthespecific integrations to the basic configuration requested by individual coun‐ tries. Lockheed Martin manages independently the subcontracts with AmericanandEuropeansuppliers,whichprovidetheirproductsorser‐ vicestotheprimecontractorresponsiblefordeliveringtheaircraftun‐ derthetermsprovidedbytheJPOcontract.Similarly,Pratt&Whitneyis theprimecontractorforF‐35’sengineandtheintegrationofitsrelated systems.TheteamisalsocomposedbyRolls‐Royce,whoisresponsible for the vertical lift system for the STOVL aircraft, and Hamilton Sundstrand,inchargeoftheelectronicenginecontrolsystem,actuation system, gearbox and health monitoring systems. Other companies in partner countries participate on an equal access basis in the supplies’ 6Interviewdated6December2013. 7Interviewdated10December2013. 117 THE ROLE OF ITALIAN FIGHTER AIRCRAFT IN CRISIS MANAGEMENT OPERATIONS: TRENDS AND NEEDS competitions managed by the US prime contractors; bids are selected accordingtotheirbestprice/qualityratio.Therefore,inordertobeen‐ gagedintheF‐35programmetheItaliandefenceindustrialbasehashad to accept the challenge of the best value for money approach. This is quitenewwithrespecttoItalianindustry’spastexperienceinmultina‐ tional programme based on juste retour principle, whereby cost‐share divided among participating governments must equal the work‐share amongnationalindustriescomposingtheindustrialconsortium. Although assessing international collaborations in defence procure‐ ment projects is not an easy task, economic theory might offer some guidelines. First, an international programme has to offer cost‐savings with respect to an equivalent national programme, and ideally also in comparisonwiththeleastexpensivealternative,thatisbuying“off‐the‐ shelf.” Such collaborations have to ensure that club membership bene‐ fitsareatleastequaltothecostsofmembership.Second,anefficientin‐ ternational programme should allocate work on the basis of compara‐ tiveadvantagedeterminedbycompetition.Intheory,nosinglecountry hastherighttoashareofthedevelopmentandproductionworkbased ontheamountofitsfinancialcontributiontotheprogramme–whichis ratherthekeyassumptionofthejusteretourprinciple.Finally,accord‐ ing to the economic theory, in order to be more efficient and effective, the multinational programme has to be managed and monitored by a unique prime contractor. The prime contractor should be bound by an incentive‐contract with the public authority establishing rewards and penaltiesincaseofgoodorpoorperformancesbythecompany.8 TheF‐35programmeseemstosubstantiallyreflectthisapproach,as opposedtopastandtraditionalcollaborationsindefenceprojects.9Even atthebeginningoftheprogramme,duringthedesignanddevelopment phases of the F‐35, two companies – Lockheed Martin and Boeing – were in competition to acquire the contract. The two competitors had selectedpartnercompaniesandsuppliersonthebasisoftheirtechnical 8KeithHartley,“OffsetsandtheJointStrikeFighterintheUKandtheNetherlands”,in JurgenBrauerandJ.PaulDunne eds. , ArmsTradeandEconomicDevelopment.Theory, Policy,andCasesinArmsTradeOffsets,LondonandNewYork,Routledge,2004,p.134. 9Ibid. 118 5. THE F-35 PROGRAMME AND ITALY: THE INDUSTRIAL PERSPECTIVE expertise and competitiveness rather than on geographical criteria. Then,thecontracthasbeenawardedtoLockheedMartinona“winner takesall”basis,thuswithoutcompensating Boeingwith any additional orextraprocurements. Participating countries benefit from the investment made through theirfinancialcontributiontoF‐35inadifferentwayratherthanauto‐ matic work‐share/cost‐share principle. First, their industries are al‐ lowed to bid for work on the programme. Moreover, partner govern‐ mentshave priorityinF‐35deliveriesandaccesstotechnicalandper‐ formancedatarelatedtotheaircraft,andtheirrepresentativesarepost‐ edintheJPOalongsidewithAmericans.Additionally,theyareexempted frompayingaResearch&Developmenttaxonanypurchase.Theseben‐ efits are greater than the alternative option of buying “off‐the‐shelf,” thatisdirectlybuyingtheaircraftinthecommercialmarketplace. However,itisnecessarytospecifysomeelementsinordertoprovide apictureas complete aspossibleoftheF‐35project.Ontheonehand, adopting an approach based on competition and on the best value for moneyis,undoubtedly,aninnovativeaspect.Fromamanagementper‐ spective,thesetwoinnovativepillarsintendedtomaketheprogramme moreefficientbyacontinuousanddetailedmonitoringofcosts,andby avoiding duplication and unnecessary expenditures during the entire lifecycle of the product. Nevertheless, costs are subject to increase not least because developing and testing cutting‐edge technologies may present unexpected costs, and/or unexpected delays, which turn into further costs.10 For sure, containing costs is in the interest of all part‐ ners, in primis the US, which bears the overwhelming burden of re‐ search,development,designandproductionexpenditures. Ontheotherhand,itseemsnecessarytoapplythesetwoconcepts– competitionandbestvalueformoney–withacertainflexibilitytoavoid to “overstress” the supply chain. In order to correctly understand this point,somepreliminaryclarificationsareneeded.Ingeneral,theprime contractor handles contractual relationships with American and Euro‐ peansuppliersthroughoneofthefollowingthreeprocedures: 10Interviewdated23January2014. 119 THE ROLE OF ITALIAN FIGHTER AIRCRAFT IN CRISIS MANAGEMENT OPERATIONS: TRENDS AND NEEDS 1. Lockheed Martin can set a maximum level of expenditure for a given component, system or service, and the supplier initially selected maintains the contract as long as its price remains underthatceiling. 2. LockheedMartincanopentoallindustryplayersthebiddingfor a certain supply, and assign the contract to the company providingthebestvalueintermsofcostandquality. 3. Lockheed Martin can sign agreements with two different suppliers of a given product as it deems strategic having more thanasinglesupplysourcetoprovideit˗theso‐called“strategic secondsources”method. ThelatteristhecaseofAleniaAermacchi,aFinmeccanicacompany,that has “strategic second source” status for F‐35’s wings after Lockheed Martin.TheItalianindustrywillcontinuetoprovidewingsaslongasit can keep their price lower or equal to that of the units produced by LockheedMartin.Ifthe“secondsource”priceincreasescomparedtothe one provided by the first source, Lockheed Martin could re‐open the competitiontoseekanothersupplierofferingbestvalueforthatspecific product. This approach may lead the “second source” company topro‐ duceforawhilewithnegativemarginsinordertoremaincompetitive andmaintainthecontract,whilethe“learningcurve”makestheproduc‐ tionprogressivelymoreprofitable. The majority of supplier agreements with Lockheed Martin have a one‐yearterm,becausetheUSgovernmentdecidesthenumberofF‐35 to be purchased year by year. These contracts are expected to shift to five‐year term with the start of the full rate production. In any case, LockheedMartinwillcheckfromtimetotimewhetheritssuppliercon‐ tinues to offer the best value available on the market for that specific product or service. A system based on one‐year contracts seems to overstress the supply chain and does not encourage the supplier to elaborateandadoptlong‐terminvestmentsplan,becausethecontractor hastobeartheriskofmakinginvestmentscompletelyonitsown–i.e.in machineriesorhumanresources–withoutanyassurancethatthevol‐ umeofsupplieswillcontinuebeyondthenextyear. AnothercriticalissueconcernsthelackofItalianindustries’partici‐ pation in the development and integration activities, which entail the 120 5. THE F-35 PROGRAMME AND ITALY: THE INDUSTRIAL PERSPECTIVE most significant and sensitive technologies. This issue has also applied tootherEuropeanindustrialpartnersoftheF‐35programme,beingthe “transatlantic technology transfer” of defence procurements one of the mostcontestedissueatgovernmentalandindustriallevels.11Demands fromEuropeansuppliersfaceobstaclesmainly,butnotonly,duetoUS regulationssuchastheInternationalTrafficinArmsRegulation ITAR and the National Disclosure Policy. Therefore, more work needs to be donewithintheF‐35cooperationtoaddressthisissue.12 5.2 THE ITALIAN PARTICIPATION IN THE PROCUREMENT PROGRAMME There are three levels of international participation in the F‐35 pro‐ curement, which reflect each country’s financial stake in the pro‐ gramme. Ranking in one of these levels influences the amount of tech‐ nology transfer and subcontracts open for bid to national companies, the number and importance of positions hold by national representa‐ tivesintheJPO,aswellastheorderinwhichcountriesreceiveproduced aircraft.SinceItalyisinvolvedintheF‐35programmeasLevel2partner –thesamelevelofNetherlands–withroughly4%sharingofthetotal cost, it has limited opportunities to influence aircraft’s requirements. TheUnitedKingdomisaLevel1partnerwith10%ofcost‐share,while Australia, Canada, Denmark, Norway, and Turkey are Level 3 partners, eachhavingonetotwopercentofcost‐share. Italy’sparticipationintheF‐35programmebegunin1998whenthe left‐winggovernmentdecidedtoinvest10milliondollarintheConcept DemonstrationPhase CDP .In2002,theItalianright‐winggovernment 11AlessandroMarrone,“Cooperazionetransatlanticanelladifesaetrasferimentodi tecnologiesensibili”,inIAIQuaderni,No.30 June2008 ,http://www.iai.it/content.asp? langid 1&contentid 122. 12Forthesakeofcompleteness,itshouldbenoticedthattheissueoftechtransferaf‐ fectsalsoEuropeanprocurementprogrammes,wherebydifferentindustriespartofthe consortium struggle to not release all high‐tech information to governments of other countrieswheretheirindustrialcompetitorarebased.Interviewdated21January2014. 121 THE ROLE OF ITALIAN FIGHTER AIRCRAFT IN CRISIS MANAGEMENT OPERATIONS: TRENDS AND NEEDS confirmedthechoicetakenin1998bycommitting1,028billiondollarin theSystemDesignandDevelopment SDD PhaseandbysigningtheUS‐ Italy related Memorandum of Understanding MoU . In 2007, the left‐ winggovernmentsignedthebilateralMoUfortheProduction,Sustain‐ ment,andFollow‐onDevelopment PSFD Phase,withaninvestmentof 904 million dollar. Two years later, in 2009 the Italian Parliament ap‐ provedtheacquisitionof131F‐35,including69F‐35Avariantsand62 F‐35Bvariants.Atthattime,ItalyalsodecidedtobuildtheFinalAssem‐ bly and Check Out FACO and Maintenance, Repair, Overhaul and Up‐ grade MRO&U facility at Cameri, with an investment of 775 million dollar. In 2012, due to the decision to adopt wide‐ranging austerity measures, the Italian government has reduced the overall fleet of F‐35 from131to90 60F‐35Aand30F‐35B . The delivery of Italian aircraft will be completed by 2027, with the first34F‐35acquiredby2020.Thisdeliveryschedulehasbeentailored expresslybytakingintoaccountthereplacementofTornadoandAMX. Thelatterwillbereplacedbefore2020,whileTornadowillcontinueto operate until 2027. Therefore, some Tornado will be maintained and progressivelyphasedoutuntilthelastF‐35willcomeintoservice.13 AccordingtothemostrecentfiguresaboutItaly’sengagementinthe F‐35 programme, 90 Italian companies are involved and the contracts awarded to the Italian industries have an overall value of 715 million dollar.14 Within this volume, 565 million dollar are related to the Finmeccanica group,15 mainly through Alenia Aermacchi, which is re‐ sponsiblefortheconstructionofmorethan1,200F‐35wings,notonly for the Italian fleet, but also for the nine partners of the programme.16 13ItalianChamberofDeputies‐ResearchService,“IlprogrammaJointStrikeFighter F35 ”,inDocumentazioneericerche,No.22 31May2013 ,http://documenti.camera. it/leg17/dossier/Testi/DI0011.htm. 14ItalianChamberofDeputies‐DefenceCommittee, Audizionedell’AmministratoreDe‐ legatoeDirettoreGeneralediFinmeccanica,16October2013,http://documenti.camera. it/Leg17/resoconti/commissioni/stenografici/xhtml/04/indag/c04_arma/2013/10/16/r esoconto.0008.html. 15Ibid. 16AleniaAermacchi,LockheedMartinandAleniaAeronauticasigncontractforinitial productionofF‐35wings,25September2008,http://www.aleniana.com/node/80. 122 5. THE F-35 PROGRAMME AND ITALY: THE INDUSTRIAL PERSPECTIVE Theterm“wings”includesboththetwosemi‐wingsandthecentralcell oftheaircraftholdingthemtogether,thatis30%oftheentireairframe, presenting significant engineering challenges. The programme has po‐ tentialrevenuesfor10billiondollar,17butthiswilldependonthecapac‐ itytoexploitandusetheinfrastructurescreated–firstandforemostthe Cameri FACO/MRO&U – to build components and to provide mainte‐ nance,supportandupgrade,inparticularforavionicsandelectronics– forboththeEuropeanF‐35andtheUSaircraftbasedinEurope.Because of these reasons, and the very same nature of the procurement pro‐ gramme based on best value for money principle, providing definitive figures and numbers about the industrial returns of the F‐35 pro‐ grammeisquitecomplicatedandtoacertainextentincomplete.Having saidthat,arecentreportcarriedoutbytheadvisorybranchofPricewa‐ terhouseCoopers PwC estimatesthattheItalianparticipationintheF‐ 35procurementprogrammewillgenerateanaddedvalueof15,8billion dollarfortheItalianeconomyduringtheentire2007‐2035timeframe anditwillsupportthecreationofmorethan6,300jobs.18 ConcerningSmallandMediumEnterprises SMEs inthedefenceand aerospace sector, they proved to be flexible and adaptable in offering the best value for money within the F‐35 programme.19 However, they suffermorethanlargersuppliersthefactthatcontractsaregrantedonly onone‐yearbasisandtheyarethusdiscouragedtomakelong‐termin‐ vestments in machineries, technology and human resources, which would greatly benefit their competitiveness. Moreover, Italian SMEs sometimes lack the necessary information and technical/legal assis‐ tancetobecompetitiveintheF‐35procurementbiddingprocess.20Fur‐ 17Ibid. 18“F‐35, per l’Italia benefici da 15 miliardi”, in Il Sole 24 Ore, 19 February 2014, http://www.banchedati.ilsole24ore.com/doc.get?uid finanza‐FM20140219024EAA. 19Interviewdated23January2014. 20Inaddition,SMEsintheaerospaceanddefencesectordosuffercommonproblems ofItalianeconomy:delaysinthepaymentbypublicauthoritiesandprivateItalianprime contractors,lowlevelsofpublicfundingforresearchanddevelopmentactivities,inade‐ quategovernment’sexportsupport,hightaxationandanumberofbureaucraticobsta‐ cles.Formoredetailssee,amongothers,AlessandroMarrone,“Piccoleemedieimprese nelmercatodelladifesa”,inAffarInternazionali,16April2013,http://www.affarinterna 123 THE ROLE OF ITALIAN FIGHTER AIRCRAFT IN CRISIS MANAGEMENT OPERATIONS: TRENDS AND NEEDS thermore, the participation of SMEs to such a complex programme shouldbefacilitatedthroughasystemofglobalauthorizationsallowing thetransferofpartsandcomponentsdirectedtotheAmericanandEu‐ ropeancompaniesparticipatingintheF‐35procurement. A distinguishing feature of Italian participation in the F‐35 pro‐ gramme is the aforementioned FACO/MRO&U Cameri facility. Cameri facilityisanItalianAirForcebasethathasservedaslogisticshubinthe last decades, where Tornados and then Eurofighters have been and continuetobe maintainedandrepaired,ensuringasoundbackground of technical skills among military and industrial teams. Within the pe‐ rimeter of the base, under the direction of Alenia Aermacchi, 22 new buildingshavebeenconstructedwiththeaimtosupporttheF‐35pro‐ gramme,21coveringaround140,000squaremeters.22Thankstotheuti‐ lizationofamilitaryairfieldandtothegoodcoordinationamongdiffer‐ entbureaucraciesandwiththeprivatesector,ittookonlyfouryearsbe‐ tweenthedecisionstobuildtheFACOanditsindustrialuse–whichisa relatively short period for Italian standards in terms of major public works.AleniaAermacchihasbeguntobuildwingscomponentsforUSF‐ 35alreadyin2011,notwithstandingtheCamerifacilitywasstillpartly under construction, thanks also to additional buildings made available bytheItalianmilitary.23 In particular, Cameri facility is composed by different and comple‐ mentaryelements: 1. AFACOfacilitytoassembletheItalianF‐35AandF‐35Bvariants, theF‐35AprocuredbyNetherlands,andpotentiallytheaircraft to be procured by other European partners such as Denmark andNorway;asofDecember2013,twoItalianF‐35Aarebeing zionali.it/articolo.asp?ID 2291. 21RobbinLaird,“TheItalianWayofProcuringtheF‐35:ShapingaEuropeanBasefor the Global Fleet”, in Second Line of Defense, 1 November 2013, http://www.sldinfo. com/?p 58473. 22Interviewdated6December2013. 23 The industrial park is owned by the armed forces, which rent it to Alenia Aer‐ macchi to a fixed price accorded by the State Property Agency. Interview dated 6 No‐ vember2013. 124 5. THE F-35 PROGRAMME AND ITALY: THE INDUSTRIAL PERSPECTIVE assembled in the FACO assembly line, which can reach a maximumoftwoF‐35assembledpermonth. 2. A wing construction facility serving the entire procurement programme and not only Italian and Dutch customers. It can buildamaximumofsixwingspermonth. 3. The aircraft test facility aimed at testing low‐observable performances,andtherelatedfinalpaintingfacility. 4. Other buildings aimed to support F‐35 operating in Europe by the US and allies. Since the Mediterranean and the Middle East continuetobeafundamentaloperationalareaforUSandNATO members,theCamerifacilitycanprovideanessentialsupportto theF‐35fleetoperatingthere. Inotherwords,theCamerifacilityisalreadysettohostbothFACOand MROUactivities,becauseinthelongterm–thatis2025‐2045period– maintenance activities will likely bring significant volume of contracts. Maintenanceisalsoplannedtoinvolvesignificanttechnologiesbecause it is linked with upgrade. For example, at the time when the software willneedtobeupgradedregularly,theF‐35openarchitecturewillalso allow to plug new sensors, systems or weapons in. The expected long life‐cycleoftheplatformsandthepaceoftechnologicalinnovationmean that maintenance will be a regular and substantial activity, in order to preservetheplatformtechnologicallyadvancedincomparisonwithop‐ ponents’airdefencesystems.24ThechallengeforItalyistoinvolvethe Italian military and industry in the most technologically advanced as‐ pects of F‐35 platform, that is software, electronics and avionics, in whichtheUShavebeenmorecautioustotransfertechnologyandopen bidstoEuropeanpartners.TheintegrationoftheMeteormissileswillbe anopportunityinthisregard. BeingtheonlycurrentFACOfacilityoutsideUSterritory,Camerirep‐ resents a fundamental asset of the F‐35 global production and mainte‐ nance system. Considering the time and funding necessary to set up suchafacility,plusthedifficultytogettheAmericanendorsementtoits construction, Italy has achieved a valuable asset and a competitive ad‐ 24Interviewdated6November2013. 125 THE ROLE OF ITALIAN FIGHTER AIRCRAFT IN CRISIS MANAGEMENT OPERATIONS: TRENDS AND NEEDS vantagewithrespecttootherpartnersoftheF‐35procurement,aswell astocurrentandfuturecustomers.Infact,iftheyarelocatedinEurope or in its neighbourhood – i.e. the Middle East – they are likely to find moreconvenient,effectiveandefficient,toutilizetheItalianfacilityra‐ ther than seeking to build a new one on their national territory.25 Un‐ surprisingly, already in 2006 Italy and the Netherlands signed an agreement that identifies two important areas of cooperation. On the one hand, to build and test the F‐35 aircraft acquired by Italy and the Netherlands in an Italian facility – the Cameri facility – as a starting point for a future high‐level maintenance and repair capability for the fighter.26Ontheother,aMRO&Ufacilityfortheengineandsomeaircraft equipment, to be established in the Netherlands, which will maintain, repair,overhaulandmodifysuchpartsfortheplatformsacquiredbythe two countries.27 Against this backdrop, contacts have already been es‐ tablished with the Norwegian Ministry of Defence.28 The Cameri FACO represents a long‐term investment made by the Italian military, and generallyspeakingbythewhole government,in ordertoensureacer‐ tainamountofwork‐shareforItaliancompanieswithinthenewandun‐ certainframeworkofthebestvalueformoneyprinciple.Itimplieddiffi‐ cultnegotiationswiththeAmericancounterparts,whichweresuccess‐ fully completed.29 Today Cameri represents a unique asset owned by Italianarmedforces,managedbyAleniaAermacchiinclosecooperation withthemilitarycounterpart. As a whole, the Italian participation to the F‐35 procurement pro‐ gramme presents pros and cons, opportunities and challenges. From a military point of view, the procurement of F‐35 is following a timeline whichdoesnotseemtocreatecapabilitygaps,itkeepscostsatsustain‐ able level and it dilutes them over more than a decade. Moreover, as mentionedbefore,theCamerifacilityissettoensureefficiencyandcost 25Interviewsdated6December2013and10December2013. 26MicheleNones,GiovanniGaspariniandAlessandroMarrone,“EuropeandtheF‐35 JointStrikeFighter JSF Program”,cit. 27Ibid.,p.74. 28Interviewdated6December2013. 29Interviewdated21January2014. 126 5. THE F-35 PROGRAMME AND ITALY: THE INDUSTRIAL PERSPECTIVE savingsinthemaintenance,repairandupgradeactivities,whichwillre‐ paytheinvestmentmadebytheMinistryofDefence. From an industrial point of view, part of the expectations of large companies and SMEs with regards to the work‐share of the F‐35 pro‐ curementhavebeendisappointed.Themostcontestedissueshavebeen and continue to be technology transfer from American counterparts, involvement in the industrial activities with greater engineering and technologicaladdedvalue likeelectronicsandavionics ,shortduration of contracts and uncertainty about their annual renewal. At the same time, the participation to the F‐35 programme is providing contracts and opportunities in terms of technological progress, which cannot be offeredbyanyotheravailableprocurementoptionabletomeetItalian militaryrequirements. The new procurement approach based on the best value for money principlehasimposedtotheItalianindustrytobecomemorecompeti‐ tiveandtotakemorerisksinrelationtoitsowninvestments.Italsore‐ quirestheItalianmilitaryandgovernmenttoassisttheindustryinthis regard,bymakinganadditionalandconstanteffortinnegotiatingwith US counterparts on technology transfer and other aspects of the pro‐ curementprogramme.Inotherpastprogrammes,basedonthejustere‐ tourprinciple,negotiationslargelyendedwhentheagreementoncost‐ shareandwork‐sharewasreached.ThisisnotthecaseoftheF‐35.The Camerifacilityrepresentsakeyopportunityintermsofbothqualityand quantityofthework‐shareinordertoensurevaluableandtechnologi‐ callyadvancedsuppliestoItaliancompaniesandSMEs.Thisshouldap‐ plytotheproduction,maintenance,repairandupgradeofthewholeF‐ 35 fleet based in Europe. The very same nature of this innovative pro‐ curementprogrammedoesnotallowanyoneeithertobesatisfiedwith the good investments made in the past – such as the build up of the CameriFACO/MROU–ortowaitforsomepositivedevelopmentstooc‐ curontheirown.Resultsneedtobeachievedbyajointeffortbythemil‐ itary,thegovernmentandtheindustry–eachonewithinitsrespective roleandcompetencies–stepbystep,negotiationbynegotiation,bidby bid,contractbycontract. 127 Conclusions Thisstudytriedtofulfiladifficulttask:tolinktheoperationalandpolit‐ icalelementsofItaliandefencepolicy,bytakingintoaccountalsoitsin‐ dustrialaspects. Thecomprehensionoftheoperationallevelbythepoliticalauthority is crucial. This should include the understanding of what tasks have beenperformedbyItalianaircapabilitiesduringmissionsabroadinthe last two decades, the requirements for the next fighter aircraft deter‐ mined by the current international security context, the recent opera‐ tional experience and the relevant technological innovation. Such un‐ derstandingisimportantpersé,butitisevenmoreimportanttoinform decision‐makers who are responsible of taking decisions such as those necessary to maintain Italy’s ability to join international missions to protectandpromotenationalinterestsatstake. These decisions have operational effects, because they are about whichfighteraircrafthastobeprocured,howmanyandthroughwhich timeline.Buttheyareneitheronlyoperationalnoronlytechnical.They are primarily political, because they are about spending the limited budget allocated to defence policy in order to achieve certain results. ThemainresultatstakeistomaintainItaly’scapabilitytoactthrough militarypower,particularlyAirPower.Thesearenotabstractdecisions, becausesincetheFirstGulfWarItalyhasutilizeditsfighteraircraftfor 22 out of the last 24 years – meaning that Italian military pilots have beenflyingfor22yearsoveroperationaltheatresinIraq,WesternBal‐ kans,AfghanistanorLibya.Therefore,thedecisiononwhichfighterair‐ craftwillbeusedbyItalianarmedforcesinthenextthirty‐fortyyearsis ratheraconcreteone. These decisions do not influence only the current and future effec‐ tiveness and efficiency of Italian military. They also influence the rela‐ tionswithothermajorEuropeancountries,aswellaswiththeUS.They 129 THE ROLE OF ITALIAN FIGHTER AIRCRAFT IN CRISIS MANAGEMENT OPERATIONS: TRENDS AND NEEDS affect the position of Italy within NATO and, to a lesser extent, within theEUandUN,asfarastheseinternationalorganizationswillcontinue to deal with crisis management operations. Ultimately, these decisions influence Italian defence and foreign policies, and thus the national in‐ tereststhatsuchpoliciesaresupposedtoprotectandpromote. Whateveritwillbedecidedinthisregard,itisimportantthatthese decisions are taken by understanding the operational level, including themilitaryrequirementsthatprocurement’sprogrammearemeantto satisfy. It is also paramount to take them by assessing their significant and lasting impact on the relations with Italy’s main allies, and on the Italian defence and foreign policy. Finally, it is fundamental that deci‐ sionsaretakenbyhavingafullunderstandingoftheindustrialaspects connected to the programme: in major European countries such as France,GermanyortheUK,letasidetheUS,thedefenceandforeignpol‐ icy is linked with the economic, industrial and commercial interests of French,GermanorBritishsocieties.Thisisnottosaydefenceindustrial policyisthemaingoalofdefencepolicy.Thisisrathertosaythatsincea military need is defined, to make the best of it in terms of national in‐ dustrialreturnisacommonpraxis–orevenaduty–inmajorEuropean countries. That is one of the reasons this study on Italian fighter air‐ craft’sroleincrisismanagementoperationshasdevotedonechapterto the industrial aspects of Italy’s participation to the F‐35 procurement programme. Inconclusion,bybridgingthegapbetweentheoperationalandpolit‐ ical levels, and by taking into account the industrial aspects of the de‐ fence procurement, this study aimed to stimulate a more constructive, in‐depth, and systematic debate in Italy on defence matters. A debate notlimitedonlytothereplacementoffighteraircraft,butincludingalso purposes,roleandrequirementsoftheItalianarmedforces. 130 Bibliography BOOKS AND ARTICLES Gregory Alegi, In volo da 100 anni. La storia dell’industria aeronautica italianadal1913adAleniaAermacchi,Novara,DeAgostini,2013. Gregory Alegi, “Quattro Tornado italiani partiranno lunedì per l’Afgha‐ nistan”, in Dedalo News, 19 November 2008, http://www.dedalo news.it/it/?p 16935. Susan H. Allen and Tiffany Vincent, “Bombing to Bargain? The Air War for Kosovo”, in Foreign Policy Analysis, Vol. 7, No. 1 January 2011 , pp.1‐26. 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GIUSEPPE BERNARDIS,formerHeadof 4thDepartmentoftheGeneralAr‐ mamentDirection/DefenceGeneralSecretariatchargedoftheCoordina‐ tion of Procurement Programmes, served as Air Force Chief of Staff 2010‐2013 . LUCIOBIANCHI,formerChiefofBusinessDevelopmentattheOrganisation ConjointedeCoopérationenmatièred’Armement OCCAR ,istheChief of Multipurpose Aero‐Tactical Aircraft Centre Centro Polivalente Ve‐ livoliAerotattici,Ce.Po.V.A. inCamerisinceNovember2012. CLAUDIODEBERTOLISservedasViceChiefoftheCabinetoftheMinistryof Defencein2006,andhasbeenSecretaryGeneralofDefenceandNation‐ alArmamentsDirector 2011‐2013 . DOMENICO ESPOSITOhas beentheGeneralDirectoroftheGeneralDirec‐ torate for Air Armaments ARMAEREO within the Italian Air Force since2009. BILLIEFLYNNservedintheCanadianarmedforcesfor23yearsinavarie‐ tyofpositions,hasworkedasprojectpilotforAirbusEADSandcurrent‐ lyholdsthesamepositionatLockheedMartin.Hehasaccumulatedover 4,700flighthoursinmorethan70typesofaircraft. CRAIG A. FRANKLINisCommanderoftheUS3rdAirForceand17thExpe‐ ditionaryAirForce,atRamsteinAirBase,Germany,whereheisrespon‐ sible for planning, deployment, employment, supporting and redeploy‐ mentofUSAFassets. 145 THE ROLE OF ITALIAN FIGHTER AIRCRAFT IN CRISIS MANAGEMENT OPERATIONS: TRENDS AND NEEDS GIORGIO GOMMA,RearAdmiral,sinceSeptember2013heisCommander ofItalianNavyAviation. GIUSEPPE LUPOLI,formerDirectorofthe1st“Aircraft Maintenance”Unit inCameri Novara ,heisnowworkingattheDirectorateforAirArma‐ ments ARMAEREO ,inparticularontheF‐35programmewithaspecif‐ icfocusontheFACOactivity. KEVIN MCCORMICKworksasaStrategicPlanneratLockheedMartinAer‐ onauticsCompanywithintheF‐35AirCombatAnalysisUnit. STEHEN O’BRYAN is the Vice President of Program Integration and Busi‐ nessDevelopment atLockheedMartinCorporation’sAeronauticsCom‐ pany.HeisresponsibleforleadingcoordinationacrossF‐35JointStrike Fighterbusinessactivities. STEFANO VITO SALAMIDAistheChiefofthe4thDepartment Logistics of theItalianAirForce,whilefrom1999to2002servedastheItalianNa‐ tionalDeputyintheF‐35JointProgrammeOfficeinWashington. GLADSTONE THOMASistheDirectoroftheF‐35AircraftFinishingFacility, atLockheedMartinAeronauticsCompanyinFortWorthTexas. 146 PrintedinMarch2014 withtechnologyprintondemand atthepresscentreNuovaCulturaRome p.leAldoMoron.5,00185Rome www.nuovacultura.it fororders:[email protected] Int_9788868123291_17x24bn_LM02