Burda, Wyplosz
MACROECONOMIA: UNA PROSPETTIVA EUROPEA
Capitolo 7
Il tasso di cambio reale
©EGEA 2006
Burda, Wyplosz
MACROECONOMIA: UNA PROSPETTIVA EUROPEA
Fig. 7.01
Nominal and real exchange rates: 1975-2002
Euro Area
JAPAN
Euro Area
Japan
120
100
110
100
80
90
60
80
Nominal
Real
70
Nominal
Real
40
20
60
1975
1980
1985
1990
1995
1975
2000
1980
U.K.
180
170
160
150
140
130
120
110
100
90
130
100
Nominal
Real
70
©EGEA 2006
1985
1995
2000
USA
160
1980
1990
USA
UK
1975
1985
1990
1995
2000
Nominal
Real
1975
1980
1985
1990
1995
2000
Burda, Wyplosz
MACROECONOMIA: UNA PROSPETTIVA EUROPEA
Definiamo il tasso di cambio reale
 = P/(P*/S) = SP/P*
Dove S è il tasso di cambio nominale,
es. dollari per euro
P/(P*/S) espresso in euro
SP/P* espresso in dollari
©EGEA 2006
Burda, Wyplosz
MACROECONOMIA: UNA PROSPETTIVA EUROPEA
♦ Se  aumenta l’economia evidenzia una
perdita di competitività
♦ Se  diminuisce l’economia evidenzia un
guadagno di competitività
©EGEA 2006
Burda, Wyplosz
MACROECONOMIA: UNA PROSPETTIVA EUROPEA
 = P/(P*/S) = SP/P*
♦ Se definiamo  in termini di variazioni
percentuali, allora:
/  = S/S + P/ P - P* /P*
= S/S +  - *
Allora se /  = 0,
S/S =  - *
©EGEA 2006
Burda, Wyplosz
MACROECONOMIA: UNA PROSPETTIVA EUROPEA
Fig. 7.02
Primary current account function
Real
exchange
rate
Slope: net exports increase
when price of domestic goods
fall relative to foreign goods
(real exchange rate, )
Shift: Essentially changes in
business conditions at home
and abroad.
PCA( , )
Deficit
©EGEA 2006
0
Surplus
Burda, Wyplosz
MACROECONOMIA: UNA PROSPETTIVA EUROPEA
♦ Tasso di cambio definito in termini di beni e
servizi commerciabili e non commerciabili
 = PN /PC , se PC=PC*/S allora
 = SPN /PC*
PIL nominale=PCYC + PNYN, se dividiamo
per PC
Y = YC + YN
o anche
YC = Y - YN
©EGEA 2006
Burda, Wyplosz
MACROECONOMIA: UNA PROSPETTIVA EUROPEA
Fig. 7.03
Production possibilities frontier (PPF)
Traded goods
Slope: opportunity cost of
nontraded goods.
Curve: increasingly hard to get
resources transferred from
traded goods to increase
nontraded goods.
Shift: changes in labour or capital,
changes in productivity.
0
©EGEA 2006
Nontraded goods
Burda, Wyplosz
MACROECONOMIA: UNA PROSPETTIVA EUROPEA
Fig. 7.04
Traded goods
Real GDP expressed here in units of traded good
100 A
Slope: price of nontraded
domestic goods relative to
traded goods
(real exchange rate, )
-
0
©EGEA 2006
B
100/
Nontraded goods
Burda, Wyplosz
MACROECONOMIA: UNA PROSPETTIVA EUROPEA
Fig. 7.04
Traded goods
Price of nontraded goods increases
100 A
-´
0
©EGEA 2006
-
C
100/´
B
100/
Nontraded goods
Burda, Wyplosz
MACROECONOMIA: UNA PROSPETTIVA EUROPEA
Fig. 7.04
Price lines
Traded goods
110 A´
100 A
Shift: different values of real GDP
-´
0
©EGEA 2006
-
C
100/´
B
B´
100/ 110/ Nontraded goods
Burda, Wyplosz
MACROECONOMIA: UNA PROSPETTIVA EUROPEA
Produzione ottimale
©EGEA 2006
Fig. 7.05
Burda, Wyplosz
MACROECONOMIA: UNA PROSPETTIVA EUROPEA
Fig. 7.05
Traded goods
Maximum possible value of GDP
P
-
0
©EGEA 2006
Nontraded goods
Burda, Wyplosz
MACROECONOMIA: UNA PROSPETTIVA EUROPEA
Fig. 7.05
Traded goods
If relative price of nontraded goods rises...
Structure of output is
changed, less output of
traded goods and more
output of nontraded
goods.
P
Why? Producers of
nontraded goods can
afford to bid away inputs
from producers of traded
goods.
P´
-´
0
©EGEA 2006
-
Nontraded goods
Burda, Wyplosz
MACROECONOMIA: UNA PROSPETTIVA EUROPEA
Produzione e consumo ottimali
©EGEA 2006
Fig. 7.07
Burda, Wyplosz
MACROECONOMIA: UNA PROSPETTIVA EUROPEA
Fig. 7.07
Traded goods
Optimal production and consumption
A
-
0
©EGEA 2006
B Nontraded goods
Burda, Wyplosz
MACROECONOMIA: UNA PROSPETTIVA EUROPEA
Il tasso di cambio reale di equilibrio
©EGEA 2006
Fig. 7.08
Burda, Wyplosz
MACROECONOMIA: UNA PROSPETTIVA EUROPEA
Fig. 7.08
National intertemporal budget constraint
• We pay back outstanding debt by exporting more
than we import in the last period.
• We spend down our positive net foreign assets by
importing more than we export in the last period.
©EGEA 2006
Burda, Wyplosz
MACROECONOMIA: UNA PROSPETTIVA EUROPEA
♦ Vincolo intertemporale:
SPPC1 + SPPC2/(1+r)= -F1
SPPC2 = -(1+r)(F1 + SPPC2) = -F2
F2=posizione netta all’inizio del 2 periodo
©EGEA 2006
Burda, Wyplosz
MACROECONOMIA: UNA PROSPETTIVA EUROPEA
Fig. 7.08
Equilibrium real exchange rate
Real exchange rate
(PN/PT)
PCA( , )


A
A´
0 -(1+r )F1 -(1+r )F1
Primary current account (period 2)
©EGEA 2006
F1 is the net
asset position
going into the
second
period.
Burda, Wyplosz
MACROECONOMIA: UNA PROSPETTIVA EUROPEA
Fig. 7.09
Net external position and the real exchange rate
0.00%
130.00
-5.00%
-10.00%
120.00
-15.00%
-20.00%
Sweden
1986-98
110.00
-25.00%
-30.00%
100.00
-35.00%
-40.00%
90.00
-45.00%
-50.00%
80.00
1982 1985 1988 1991 1994 1997 2000
net foreign position, % of GDP (left scale)
real exchange rate, index 1995=100 (right scale)
©EGEA 2006
Burda, Wyplosz
MACROECONOMIA: UNA PROSPETTIVA EUROPEA
The equilibrium real exchange rate and
productivity in the traded goods sector
©EGEA 2006
Fig. 7.10
Burda, Wyplosz
MACROECONOMIA: UNA PROSPETTIVA EUROPEA
Fig. 7.10
Traded goods
Equilibrium real exchange rate
and productivity in the traded goods sector
QT
0
©EGEA 2006
Price line
A
QNT
Nontraded goods
Burda, Wyplosz
MACROECONOMIA: UNA PROSPETTIVA EUROPEA
Fig. 7.10
Traded goods
If productivity increases in the production of
traded goods (and nontraded consumption
remains constant)...
B
QT´
QT
New price line
A
...appreciation of the
real exchange rate
0
©EGEA 2006
QNT
Nontraded goods
Burda, Wyplosz
MACROECONOMIA: UNA PROSPETTIVA EUROPEA
Fig. 7.10
Traded goods
Note: slope of new PPF to the right of B is
steeper
C
QT
0
©EGEA 2006
B
QT´
A
QNT
...some of the increase in
real income will be enjoyed
in increase consumption of
both goods.
Nontraded goods
Burda, Wyplosz
MACROECONOMIA: UNA PROSPETTIVA EUROPEA
Fig. 7.11
Real exchange rates in transition economies
1600
1500
1400
1300
1200
1100
1000
Czech Republic
Hungary
Poland
900
©EGEA 2006
03
02
02
01
01
00
00
99
99
98
98
97
97
96
96
95
95
94
94
93
93
92
800
Burda, Wyplosz
MACROECONOMIA: UNA PROSPETTIVA EUROPEA
Table. 7.01
Price level comparisons, 2000 (USA = 100)
Europe
AUSTRIA
BELGIUM
DENMARK
FRANCE
GERMANY
ICELAND
IRELAND
ITALY
NETHERLANDS
NORWAY
SPAIN
SWEDEN
SWITZERLAND
U.K.
Asia
93.7
89.2
106.8
90.7
95.0
113.1
92.6
81.3
90.1
112.4
73.8
104.8
118.1
98.5
North America and Oceania
CANADA
U.S.A.
AUSTRALIA
NEW ZEALAND
©EGEA 2006
CHINA
BANGLADESH
INDIA
ISRAEL
JAPAN
PAKISTAN
SINGAPORE
23.1
19.6
17.1
92.5
144.8
19.9
80.1
Africa
CHAD
EGYPT
MOZAMBIQUE
NIGERIA
19.1
34.4
19.3
39.3
Central and South America
79.3
100.0
74.6
66.2
BRAZIL
CHILE
MEXICO
PERU
VENEZUELA
45.1
44.6
60.8
43.5
69.0