Current Problems and the Financial Sustainability of the Italian Health Care System Vincenzo Atella Health Econometrics, Economics and Policy (HEEP) Outline of the presentation The context of public finance in Italy and abroad The effects of auterity policies (desired and undesired) on public health expenditure The financial sustainability of the NHS 2 # of countries with reduction in public expenditure in % of GDP, 2008-15 Fonte: Ortiz e Cimmins (2013), Authors’ calculations based on the IMF’s World Economic Outlook (October 2012) 3 Fonte: Ortiz e Cimmins (2013), Authors’ calculations based on the IMF’s World Economic Outlook (October 2012) 4 -10.0 -5.0 Fonte: OECD Health at A Glance Europe, 2012 -1.2 1.8 3.1 2.9 2.0 1.4 1.6 4.2 2.4 2.0 2.7 3.5 3.6 2.0 3.1 2.2 1.2 3.9 3.8 3.4 2.2 2.1 0.8 1.3 1.0 0.5 0.5 0.4 0.2 0.1 2.7 5.6 5.5 4.9 4.6 4.1 7.1 10.9 Health spending 2009-2010 -2.0 -0.2 -0.5 -0.6 -0.9 3.9 3.2 5.0 -2.0 -2.1 6.0 8.9 10.0 -4.4 -5.0 5.7 7.2 6.5 Health spending 2000-2009 -7.1 -6.7 -7.3 -7.9 Annual average growth rates, real terms GDP and Health care spending in OECD countries GDP growth 2009-2010 15.0 2.5 2.0 1.5 1.0 0.5 0.0 0.0 -0.5 -1.0 -1.5 -2.0 5 Rate of growth of health care spending in OECD countries Health: 2° most important component in public exp in Italy 36 32 28 (% of total public expenditure) 24 20 16 12 2007 2010 8 4 0 Source: OECD Fiscal Consolidation Survey 2012. 7 Public finance intervention in Italy (up to March 2013) From June 2008 to present, we have launched fiscal interventions for a total of 137 billion euro. In 2012, we interventions. In 2013 have been decided additional fixes for more than 26 billion euro. Only in 2014 we expect a loosening of the austerity, with an additional cut under 6 billion Euros. Despite this massive effort in terms of corrective measures, the past legislatures leave an inheritance that does not deliver the achievement of a balanced budget. had almost 60 billion Euros of 8 A synthesis of recent policy interventions on the NHS A synthesis of recent policy interventions on the NHS Trend in public health financing Fonte: Elaborazioni Fondazione Farmafactoring su Documenti Ufficiali 11 The role of regional revenues 2011 Regioni con PdR Risorse proprie Milioni di euro Leva fiscale Totale Risorse proprie in % del Leva fiscale finanziamento statale Totale Risorse proprie Leva fiscale in % dei costi Totale 1.614,2 1.916,0 3.530,2 3,3 3,9 7,2 3,1 3,7 6,8 Regioni senza PdR 3.413,5 108,5 3.521,9 6,0 0,2 6,2 5,6 0,2 5,8 Totale 5.027,7 2.024,4 7.052,1 4,7 1,9 6,6 4,5 1,8 6,3 Fonte: elaborazioni Fondazione Farmafactoring su dati Min. Salute (2012) e Corte dei Conti (2012) 12 OOP expenditure as % of public expenditure - 2011 Fonte: Elaborazioni Fondazione Farmafactoring su Documenti Ufficiali 13 SOME UNPLEASANT EFFECTS OF COST CONTAINMENT POLICIES 14 Where we continue to spend 15 Fonte: elaborazioni Farmafactoring su dati HS-SiSSI e Ministero della Salute. Where we continue to spend Regions WITHOUT PdR Regions WITH PdR Fonte: elaborazioni Farmafactoring su dati HS-SiSSI e Ministero della Salute. 16 THE FUTURE SCENARIOS 17 Comparison across simulations of public health expenditure 18 Fonte: CEIS Tor Vergata, Unione Europea, RGS, IMF, OCSE Real public health care expenditure growth rates (1985-2010) Anni 1985 - 1990 1991 - 1995 1996 - 2000 2001 - 2005 2006 - 2010 1985 - 2000 2001 - 2010 1985 – 2010 D (mln euro) 3.489,0 -1.067,9 3.355,8 3.339,4 1.168,1 1.925,6 2.253,8 2.056,9 (%) 6.81% -1.56% 5.30% 4.17% 1.21% 3.76% 2.81% 4.02% Fonte: elaborazioni CEIS Tor Vergata su dati Ministero della Salute. 19 Δ of public expenditure by type of simulation (Values in Bls of euro) Nominal values 2010 2050 Δ year CEIS 1 20102050 113.8 336.9 5.44 CEIS 2 20102050 113.8 444.7 8.06 RGS 2011-2050 113.7 548.4 10.9 Real values 2010 2010 2050 Δ annuo CEIS 1 113.8 121.3 0.18 CEIS 2 113.8 160.1 1.12 RGS 113.1 197.4 2.06 20 Fonte: elaborazioni CEIS Tor Vergata su dati Ministero della Salute. Conclusions There is a clear general trend to reduce government spending, in particular in the health care sector. The outlook for the coming years in terms of available resources does not seem to be so rosy. The effects of the cuts on the different segments of the population will certainly not be neutral. 21