'DWD
6$66$5,127,=,(&20:(%
3DJLQD
)RJOLR
YHQHUGuJHQQDLR
0RELOH
3ULPD3DJLQD
1HZV
/DYRUR
2UH
6DOXWH
$FFHGL
$SSXQWDPHQWL
5HJLVWUDWL
6HUYL]L
1HZVOHWWHU
$JJLXQJLDL3UHIHULWL
5XEULFKH
566
9LGHR
&HUFDQHOVLWR
9LWDGHL&RPXQL
2OELD1RWL]LH
6RVWHQLELOLWj
6267(1,%,/,7$
$JULFROWXUDHFULVLFOLPDWLFDFRQIURQWRVXL
PRGHOOLVRVWHQLELOL
7ZHHW
6WDPSD
5LGXFL
$XPHQWD
&RQGLYLGL_
5RPDJHQ$GQ.URQRV6LVWHPDDJULFRORYLWWLPDH
FDUQHILFHGHOODFULVLFOLPDWLFD8Q
DJULFROWXUDLQGXVWULDOH
EDVDWDVXXQXWLOL]]RHFFHVVLYRGLVRVWDQ]HFKLPLFKHH
VWUHWWDPHQWHGLSHQGHQWHGDIRQWLGLHQHUJLDFDUERQIRVVLOH
HVSRQHVHPSUHSLO¶DPELHQWHDHYHQWLDWPRVIHULFLHVWUHPL
FRPHVLFFLWjHDOOXYLRQL(VLVWHSHUzXQ¶DOWHUQDWLYDHFLRq
O¶DJURHFRORJLDXQLQVLHPHGLWHFQLFKHDJULFROHEDVDWHVX
SULQFLSLHFRORJLFLHGHWLFLULFRQRVFLXWLHDGRWWDWLLQWXWWRLOPRQGR&RQ
TXHVWHWHFQLFKHqSRVVLELOHFROWLYDUHPDWHULHSULPHSLVLFXUHDOLPHQWDULH
QRQQHOULVSHWWRGHOODELRGLYHUVLWjGHOODVDOXWHFROOHWWLYDHGHOOHULVRUVHGHO
SLDQHWD6HQHSDUOHUjPHUFROHGuIHEEUDLRDOOHSUHVVROD6DOD
6DOYDGRULGHOOD&DPHUDGHL'HSXWDWLQHOFRUVRGHOO
LQFRQWURGDOWLWROR
$JULFROWXUDHFDPELDPHQWRFOLPDWLFR
SHUGLVFXWHUHHULIOHWWHUHVXWHPLFKH
LQWHUHVVDQRQRQVRORLOFRPSDUWRGHOO¶DJULFROWXUDPDO¶LQWHUDFROOHWWLYLWjFRPH
O¶LPSDWWRFKHLGLYHUVLPRGHOOLDJULFROLKDQQRQHLFRQIURQWLGHO3LDQHWDHL
YDQWDJJLGLSUDWLFKHGLFROWLYD]LRQHVRVWHQLELOL1HOO¶RFFDVLRQHVDUj
SUHVHQWDWRSHUODSULPDYROWDLOOLEUR
$JULFROWXUDHFDPELDPHQWRFOLPDWLFR
VFULWWRGDOILVLFRHWHRULFRGHLVLVWHPL)ULWMRI&DSUDHGHGLWRGD$ERFD
(GL]LRQL,QWHUYHUUDQQRLOYLFHPLQLVWURDOOH3ROLWLFKH$JULFROH$QGUHD2OLYHUR
H)DEUL]LR3LYDSUHVLGHQWH&FSEFKHLOOXVWUHUjLOSURJHWWR$JUL&2OWXUHHOH
SRWHQ]LDOLWjGLXQ¶DJULFROWXUDVRVWHQLELOH3RUWHUDQQRLORURVDOXWLLOGHSXWDWR
0DUFR'RQDWLH0DVVLPR0HUFDWLGLUHWWRUHJHQHUDOHGL$ERFD
,QSULPRSLDQR
3LOHWWHGHOODVHWWLPDQD
4XDUDQWDPLODRSXVFROLLQIRUPDWLYLVXOODUDFFROWD
GLIIHUHQ]LDWD
3DOODVWDEHQH$WWHQ]LRQHDOOHWUXIIH
3RUWR7RUUHVGLFHDGGLRD(TXLWDOLD
,OYROWRGL$UPDQLELPERqXQEHOOLVVLPREDPELQR
GL3ORDJKH
6DVVDULD%UDWLVODYDFRQOHVXHWUDGL]LRQL
8QDVDQLWjSLHTXDSHUWXWWLLOIHEEUDLR
FRQYHJQRD0RQWHFLWRULR
/
8RFGLQHXURSVLFKLDWULDLQIDQWLOHGLUHWWDGDOSURI
6RWJLXRUJDQL]]DO
2SHQ'D\SHUO
(SLOHVVLD
,FLUFROLVDUGLDPEDVFLDWRULGHOO¶DJQHOORGL
6DUGHJQD,JS
$O3DOD]]RGL&LWWjORVSHWWDFROR5HVLOLD
,QWHUIHUHQ]HVWRULFKH
3ULYDWL]]D]LRQH$EEDQRDGRGLFLFRQVLJOLHULGLFRQR
QR
)XUWRGD%ULFRPDQDUUHVWDWRXQHQQH
$6DVVDULULQDVFHLO&RQYLWWRGHO&DQRSROHQR
5HQ]LERFFLDLOULHTXLOLEULRLQVXODUHGHOOD
6DUGHJQD
6RUVRGXHDUUHVWLSHUIXUWR
*LRYDQHQLJHULDQRLQPDQHWWHSHUWHQWDWDYLROHQ]D
VHVVXDOH
$UPDWLGLSLVWRODHSURQWLSHUODUDSLQDPDL
&DUDELQLHULJOLURYLQDQRODIHVWD
/DXUHDWRVDVVDUHVHSUHPLDWRDOOD&DPHUDGHL
'HSXWDWL
6DVVDULXQDGRPHQLFDVHQ]DDFTXDQHOFHQWUR
VWRULFR
/D7RUUHVVDOHVXOO
RWWRYRODQWH'HPROLWRDQFKHLO
0XUDYHUD
*LXV\)HUUHULVDEDWRDOO
$XFKDQGL6DVVDUL
38%%/,&,7¬
Scarica

Agricoltura e crisi climatica, confronto sui modelli