31st SUERF Colloquium & Baffi Finlawmetrics Conference Money, Regulation and Growth: Financing New Growth in Europe sponsored by Intesa Sanpaolo 4-5 June, 2014 BAFFI Center on International Markets, Money and Regulation via Roentgen 1, I-20136 Milan, Italy Conference Motivation: In recent years, economic growth in Europe has been unsatisfactorily low. Governments, parliaments and international organisations are looking for ways to stimulate growth and improve employment. The organisers have invited researchers at universities, international organisation and financial institutions to submit papers in which they analyse the potential roles of monetary policy, financial regulation and financial markets and institutions in efforts to revitalize the European economy. SUERF – Société Universitaire Européenne de Recherches Financières www.suerf.org/milan2014 Università Commerciale Luigi Bocconi BAFFI Center on International Markets, Money and Regulation PROGRAMME Wednesday 4 June, 2014 09.00 09.30 Registration Room AS01 Opening Plenary Session Welcome: Mario Monti, President, Bocconi University, & SUERF Honorary Member Urs W. Birchler, SUERF President Chairperson: Urs W. Birchler, SUERF President Opening Address: Stefano Del Punta, CFO, Intesa Sanpaolo Keynote Speakers: The False Tradeoffs between (Effective) Financial Regulation and Growth Anat Admati, Stanford Business School How can the European Banking Union contribute to Growth? Franco Bruni, Bocconi University 11.15 Coffee Break 11.45 Rooms AS01, AS02, AS03 Commission Work – Session 1 13.15 Lunch 14.15 Rooms AS01, AS02, AS03 Commission Work – Session 2 15.45 16.15 Coffee Break Room AS01 2014 SUERF Marjolin Lecture Chairman: Donato Masciandaro, BAFFI Center, Bocconi University and SUERF Sustaining Growth, in the short run and in the medium run Olivier Blanchard, International Monetary Fund Followed by Q&A 17.45 19.30 SUERF General Assembly (for SUERF Members) Bocconi Restaurant Official Colloquium Dinner Thursday 5 June, 2014 09.30 Rooms AS01, AS02, AS03 Commission Work – Session 3 11.00 Coffee Break 11.30 Rooms AS01, AS02, AS03 Commission Work – Session 4 13.00 13.45 Lunch Room AS01 Commission Reporting Session Closing Plenary Session Chairman: Ernest Gnan, Oesterreichische Nationalbank and SUERF Elena Carletti, Bocconi University and EUI Michala Marcussen, Société Générale Corporate & Investment Banking Marc Quintyn, International Monetary Fund 15.45 Presentation of the Marjolin Prize by SUERF President 16.00 End of Colloquium 2 Università Commerciale Luigi Bocconi BAFFI Center on International Markets, Money and Regulation The SUERF Marjolin Lecture and the SUERF Marjolin Prize Robert Marjolin (1911-1986) was one of the most distinguished European economists of his generation and a leading architect of post-war Europe. From 1948 until 1955 he was the first Secretary General of the OEEC (Organization for European Economic Co-operation), an organization established to channel US Marshall Aid into the reconstruction of Europe. Marjolin was a leading negotiator of the Treaty of Rome for France and Vice President of the European Commission for Finance and Economics for ten years. He served as a Professor of Economics at the Universities of Paris and Nancy, as well as an advisor to leading European and US Companies. Since its inception at the 19th SUERF Colloquium held in Thun, Switzerland in September 1995, an eminent speaker has delivered the SUERF Marjolin Lecture on a subject related to the topic of the accompanying Colloquium. Past SUERF Marjolin Lecturers have included a winner of the Nobel Prize for Economic Science, Central Bank Governors and eminent academics from Europe and overseas. The SUERF Marjolin Prize (EUR 2,000) is awarded to the author(s) of the paper selected by the SUERF Council of Management as having made the best contribution to the Colloquium and is restricted to author(s) below the age of 40 on the 4 June, 2014 (co-authors must also fulfil this restriction). In awarding the Marjolin Prize, SUERF wishes to honour his memory by supporting a young outstanding author’s publication. The Marjolin Prize will be presented by the SUERF President, Professor Urs W. Birchler, and it is hoped that the awarded contribution will be published by SUERF in a subsequent SUERF Study after the Colloquium. Further information about the SUERF Marjolin Lecture and past winners of the SUERF Marjolin Prize can be found on the SUERF website at www.suerf.org/marjolin 2014 SUERF Marjolin Lecturer - Olivier Blanchard Economic Counsellor & Director of the Research Department, IMF, Washington DC A citizen of France, Olivier Blanchard has spent most of his professional life in Cambridge, U.S. After obtaining his Ph.D in economics at the Massachusetts Institute of Technology in 1977, he taught at Harvard University, returning to MIT in 1982, with whom he has been affiliated since then. He is the Robert M. Solow Professor of Economics, and past Chair of the Economics Department. He has been on leave from MIT since 2008, as Economic Counsellor and Director of the Research Department of the International Monetary Fund. He is a macroeconomist, who has worked on a wide set of issues, from the role of monetary policy, to the nature of speculative bubbles, to the nature of the labor market and the determinants of unemployment, to transition in former communist countries, and to forces behind the current crisis. In the process, he has worked with numerous countries and international organizations. He is the author of many books and articles, including two textbooks in macroeconomics, one at the graduate level with Stanley Fischer, one at the undergraduate level. He is a fellow and past council member of the Econometric Society, a past vice president of the American Economic Association, and a member of the American Academy of Sciences. 3 Università Commerciale Luigi Bocconi BAFFI Center on International Markets, Money and Regulation Commission 1: Monetary policy and growth Commission 2: Financial Regulation and Growth Chairs: Morten Balling (Aarhus University & SUERF) Sylvester Eijffinger (Tilburg University & CEPR) Session 1 – Money supply, credit & economic growth The financial and macroeconomic effects of OMT announcements, Carlo Altavilla (ECB), Domenico Giannone (ECARES-ULB, Universitá Luiss and CEPR) and Michele Lenza (ECB) Exploring the Relationship between Credit and GDP, Elena Stavrova, Gancho Ganchev, Vladimir Tsenkov (SWU) Household credits and financial stability: a theoretical model of financial intermediation, Cécile Bastidon (LEAD, Université de Toulon) Session 2 – Central bank credibility, monetary targets and interest rate policy Central Bank Credibility and Reputation: an Historical and Quantitative Exploration, Pierre Siklos (Wilfrid Laurier University and CEPR) and Michael D. Bordo (Rutgers University) Cyclical Interest Rates, Financial Constraints and Industry Growth, Enisse Kharroubi (Bank for International Settlements) and Philippe Aghion (Harvard University) When arm's length is too far: relationship banking over the business cycle, Thorsten Beck (Cass Business School and European Banking CentER – Tilburg University), Hans Degryse (KU Leuven and CEPR), Ralph De Haas (EBRD & Tilburg University) and Neeltje van Horen (DNB) Session 3 – Implications of bank behaviour for economic growth US Banks' Behavior since Lehman's Collapse, Bailout Uncertainty and the Timing of Exit Strategies Alex Cukierman (Tel-Aviv University) Determinants of the rate of the Dutch unsecured overnight money market, Ronald Heijmans, Lola Hernandez and Richard Heuver (DNB) A capital budgeting model of bank lending: theory, evidence, and policy implications, Robert Krainer (University of Wisconsin-Madison) Session 4 – International and EU perspectives on economic growth Exporting sovereign stress: Evidence from syndicated bank lending during the euro area sovereign debt crisis, Alexander Popov (ECB) and Neeltje van Horen (DNB) Macroprudential policies as buffer against volatile cross-border capital flows, Salih Fendoglu, Ahmet Faruk Aysan, Mustafa Kilinç (Central Bank of Turkey) Framing banking union in a common currency area: some empirical evidence from the Eurozone Diego Valiante (CEPS) Chairs: David Llewellyn (Loughborough University & SUERF) Marc Quintyn (IMF) Session 1 – Bank strategies 4 The Winner's Curse: Evidence on the Danger of Aggressive Credit Growth in Banking, Thomas Kick, Thilo Pausch, Benedikt Ruprecht (Deutsche Bundesbank) Risk-Taking Incentives of Modern Banks, Razvan Vlahu (De Nederlandsche Bank), Natalya Martynova (University of Amsterdam) and Lev Ratnovski (IMF) The Impact of Taxation on Bank Leverage and Asset Risk, Bálint L. Horváth (Tilburg University) Session 2 – Bank regulation Banking supervision and growth - a new macroprudential paradigm? Mario Quagliariello and Samuel da Rocha Lopes (European Banking Authority) Spillovers from Systemic Bank Defaults, Mark Mink (DNB), Jakob de Haan (DNB & University of Groningen) Regulations, Foreign Banks and Income Equality, Iftekhar Hasan (Fordham University) Session 3 – Shadow Banking and securitisation Shadow Banking from the perspective of a securities regulator, Peter Andrews (Financial Conduct Authority) Shadowy Banking: Theft by Safety Net, Edward Kane (Boston College) Securitisation and Bank Capital in European Banking: Does Regulation Affect Risk Retention Decisions? Alessandro Scopelliti (University of Warwick) Session 4 – Dealing with bank failures Prudential regulation and the cost of bank funding, Jordi Gual (La Caixa) Will the bail-in break the vicious circle between banks and their sovereign? Stefano Zedda (University of Cagliari) and Clara Galliani (European Commission) Feeding or averting the next crisis? The Resolution Fund and Incentives, Javier Villar Burke (European Commission) Conference Session Venues: Room AS01 Room AS02 Room AS03 Plenary Sessions and Commission 1 Commission 2 Commission 3 All rooms are adjacent to one another. Coffee breaks and lunches will be served in the area outside the three rooms. Università Commerciale Luigi Bocconi BAFFI Center on International Markets, Money and Regulation Commission 3: Economic growth and financial institutions and markets Chairs: Frank Lierman (Belfius Bank and SUERF), Pierre Siklos (Wilfrid Laurier University) Session 1 – Rebuilding Financial Europe Restructuring financial Europe and the necessity to relaunch the European Economy - the insurance perspective, Jan Monkiewicz (Geneva Association and Warsaw University of Technology) Banking and real convergence clubs: is the euro area really a blunder? Massimiliano Affinito (Banca d'Italia) Banking market competition, opaque firms, and the reallocation component of aggregate growth, Felix Noth (Goethe University Frankfurt), Robert Inklaar (University of Groningen), Michael Koetter (Frankfurt School of Finance and Management) Session 2 – Re-establishing the public role The role of the European Investment Bank in the relaunching of the European economy, Debora Revoltella (European Investment Bank) The Mechanics of Financial Liberalization and Growth, Alessandra dal Colle (Banca Prossima and CeFiMS, SOAS) Financing Growth in European Economies: Pitfalls and Imperfections of the Financial System and a new approach in public investments, Stavros Vourloumis (London School of Economics) Session 3 – Reviewing bank lending Shocks to bank lending, risk-taking and securitization and their role for US business cycle fluctuations, Gert Peersman (Uni Ghent) and Wolf Wagner (Tilburg University) Bank Loan Spread and Private Information: Pending Approval Patents, Yuan Xie (Fordham University), Marlene Plumlee (University of Utah), Meng Yan, (Fordham University) and Jeff Jiewei Yu, (Southern Methodist University) Determinants of Capital Structure in Non-Financial Companies, Harald W. Stieber (European Commission) and Fabian Kühnhausen (IMPRS-CI) Session 4 – Panel on Experiences from Financial Institutions & Markets Panellists: Information on the SUERF Website 31st SUERF Colloquium and BAFFI Finlawmetrics Microsite www.suerf.org/milan2014 General Information: Venue www.suerf.org/milan2014venue Accommodation (and booking forms) www.suerf.org/milan2014hotels Participant Information: Full Colloquium Programme www.suerf.org/milan2014programme Colloquium Registration Form www.suerf.org/milan2014registration Colloquium Papers for download www.suerf.org/milan2014papers (password-protected) SUERF Secretariat Michael Bailey, SUERF Executive Secretary [email protected] | T: +43 1 40420 7216 Veronika Brookes, SUERF Secretary [email protected] | T: +43 1 40420 7206 SUERF Secretariat www.suerf.org / [email protected] Tel: +43 1 40420 7206 Fax: +43 1 4042004 7298 Javier Castrillo Penadés (Santander) Gregorio De Felice (Intesa Sanpaolo) Davide Grignani (Société Générale) Carl-Christoph Hedrich (Commerzbank) 5 Università Commerciale Luigi Bocconi BAFFI Center on International Markets, Money and Regulation Event Outline The event language is English. After the opening plenary session, participants divide into three separate discussion groups – the commissions - for two sessions. In commission work sessions, presenting authors give short presentations of their papers with general discussion of the papers and issues relating to them in each session. Papers presented in the commission sessions are made available to participants via the SUERF website prior to the event, with the accompanying presentations becoming available after the event. The prestigious SUERF Marjolin Lecture, delivered by Olivier Blanchard and the official event dinner will round off the first day of the event. The second day will begin with a further two commission work sessions in the morning. After lunch, on the final afternoon of the event, the findings of the respective commissions are summarised, before a closing plenary session consisting of further plenary addresses rounds of the event, with the SUERF President presenting the SUERF Marjolin Prize for the best paper written by young economists under the age of 40 presented at the event. Location The event will be held in three auditoria (Rooms AS01, AS02 and AS03) of the BAFFI Centre at via Roentgen 1. Guests staying at the suggested hotels for the event will find the venue within easy reach on foot, while the location is also served by the trams 15 and 9. Trams travel regularly in and around the city centre. Dinner Location The Official Dinner will be held at Bocconi University Restaurant in Via Gobbi 5 a short walk from the venue after the end of the first day’s proceedings. Participants Anat Admati Stanford University Roberto Blanco Banco de España and SUERF Alessandra Dal Colle Banca Prossima Massimiliano Affinito Banca d'Italia Tito Boeri Bocconi University Gregorio de Felice Intesa Sanpaolo Peter Andrews Financial Conduct Authority Veronika Brookes SUERF Hans Degryse KU Leuven and CEPR Debora Arioli Intesa Sanpaolo Annick Bruggeman National Bank of Belgium Stefano Del Punta Intesa Sanpaolo Michael Bailey SUERF Allard Bruinshoofd Rabobank Nederland and SUERF Sylvester Eijffinger Tilburg University and CEPR Morten Balling Aarhus University and SUERF Franco Bruni Bocconi University Gabriel Fagan European Central Bank and SUERF Daniele Basini Intesa Sanpaolo Elena Carletti Bocconi University Michele Fassio Intesa Sanpaolo Cécile Bastidon LEAD, Université de Toulon Javier Castrillo Penadés Santander Carlos Favero Bocconi University Harald Benink Tilburg University Giovanna Cerini Intesa Sanpaolo Salih Fendoglu Central Bank of the Republic of Turkey Wolfgang Bessler Justus-Liebig-Universität Elisa Coletti Intesa Sanpaolo Clara Galliani European Commission Urs Birchler University of Zurich and SUERF Marilena Costanza Associação Portuguesa de Bancos Gancho Ganchev South West University "Neofit Rilski" Olivier Blanchard International Monetary Fund Alex Cukierman Tel Aviv University Angelo Gersandi Intesa Sanpaolo 6 Università Commerciale Luigi Bocconi BAFFI Center on International Markets, Money and Regulation Francesco Giavazzi Bocconi University Michala Marcussen Société Générale CIB and SUERF Alessandro D. Scopelliti University of Warwick Ernest Gnan Oesterreichische Nationalbank & SUERF Marc Marechal National Bank of Belgium Pierre Siklos Wilfrid Laurier University Margarita González CNMV Donato Masciandaro Bocconi University and SUERF Andrea Sironi Bocconi University Davide Grignani Société Générale CIB Luca Mezzomo Intesa Sanpaolo Erika Somma Bocconi University Anna-Maria Grimaldi Intesa Sanpaolo Mark Mink De Nederlandsche Bank (DNB) Elena Stavrova South West University "Neofit Rilski" Jordi Gual La Caixa Tommaso Monacelli Bocconi University Harald Stieber European Commission Alfonso Guido Intesa Sanpaolo Jan Monkiewicz Geneva Association and Warsaw University of Technology Niels Storm Stenbaek Danish Bankers Association Vilma Hanžel Kratochwill Bank of Slovenia Iftekhar Hasan Fordham University Carl-Christoph Hedrich Commerzbank and SUERF Lola Hernandez De Nederlandsche Bank (DNB) Arne Holzhausen Allianz SE Bálint Horváth Tilburg University Jakob Legård Jakobsen Nykredit Realkredit A/S Edward Kane Boston College Enisse Kharroubi Bank for International Settlements Thomas Kick Deutsche Bundesbank Michael Koetter Frankfurt Sch. of Finance & Management Ryszard Kokoszczynski National Bank of Poland and SUERF Robert Krainer University of Wisconsin-Madison Fabian Kühnhausen Max Planck Institute Michele Lenza European Central Bank Frank Lierman Belfius Bank and SUERF David T. Llewellyn Loughborough University Catherine Lubochinsky Global Risk Institute in Financial Services Yioryos George Makedonis Queen Mary, University of London Mario Monti President, Bocconi University SUERF Honorary Member Carolina Mota Associação Portuguesa de Bancos Paolo Mottura Bocconi University Hideki Nishigaki Sumitomo Mitsui Asset Management Francesco Ostuni Intesa Sanpaolo Fausto Panunzi Intesa Sanpaolo Lucia Pastori Intesa Sanpaolo Bruno Pavesi Bocconi University Gert Peersman University of Ghent Roberto Perotti Bocconi University Zbigniew Polański National Bank of Poland Angelo Porta Bocconi University Carla Puricelli Intesa Sanpaolo Mario Quagliariello European Banking Authority Marc G. Quintyn International Monetary Fund Debora Revoltella European Investment Bank Davide Romelli ESSEC Business School Monica Rossolini Bocconi University Yuri Stoutjesdijk NFLI Guido Tabellini Bocconi University Fabrizio Tallei Intesa Sanpaolo Thorsteinn Thorgeirsson Central Bank of Iceland Roberto Tridente Intesa Sanpaolo Vladimir Tsenkov South West University "Neofit Rilski" Nikolett Vágó Magyar Nemzeti Bank Diego Valiante Centre for European Policy Studies Natacha Valla CEPII Neeltje Van Horen De Nederlandsche Bank (DNB) Javier Villar Burke European Commission Razvan Vlahu De Nederlandsche Bank (DNB) Stavros Vourloumis London School of Economics Ronald A. Walkier NWB Bank Mikael Wendschlag Uppsala University Hanna Westman Bank of Finland Yuan Xie Fordham University Stefano Zedda University of Cagliari Davidia Zucchelli Intesa Sanpaolo Francesco Saita Bocconi University 7 Università Commerciale Luigi Bocconi BAFFI Center on International Markets, Money and Regulation About SUERF SUERF – The European Money and Finance Forum was founded on 25th November 1963 in Louveciennes (France) by a group of academics and bankers from France, Britain, The Netherlands and Belgium. SUERF is a network association of academics, bankers, central bankers and other practitioners in the financial sector. The focus of the Association is on the analysis, discussion and understanding of financial markets and institutions, the monetary economy, the conduct of regulation and monetary policy, and related issues. Its events provide a unique European network for the analysis and discussion of these and related issues. SUERF has evolved as a forum for the exchange of information, research results and ideas. As such, its membership embraces central bank officials, commercial bankers, other members of the financial community and academics. SUERF encourages dialogue among its three constituencies so that each gains from the perspectives of the others. Members are drawn from all over Europe and beyond. Mission Statement SUERF strives to be the pre-eminent independent non-profit European association designed to create an active network between professional economists, financial practitioners, central bankers and academics for the analysis and mutual understanding of monetary and financial issues. This is to be achieved by international activities focused on its Colloquia, conferences, lectures, seminars, publications, and the sponsoring of research. Recent SUERF Events Recent SUERF events have been held on the following topics: “Two ends of the spectrum – the challenges of risk management and effective resolution” • “Banking and Financial Markets between Integration and Segmentation after the Crisis” • “The Financial Reconstruction of Europe” • “The value of banks and their business models to society” • “Banking after regulatory reforms - business as usual?” • “The future of Sovereign Borrowing in Europe” • “Property prices & real estate financing in a turbulent world” • “States, Banks, and the Financing of the Economy” • “The Interaction of Political, Fiscal and Financial Stability: Lessons from the Crisis” • “Future Risks and Fragilities for Financial Stability” • “The ESRB at 1” • “The Future of Risk Management” • “New Paradigms in Money & Finance” • “Monetary Policy after the Crisis” • “Disclosure & Market Discipline – What Role for Transparency?” • “Regulation and Banking after the Crisis” SUERF Publications 50 Years of Money and Finance: Lessons and Challenges, edited by Morten Balling and Ernest Gnan Available for download at: www.suerf.org/50yearsofmoneyandfinance The following SUERF Studies have recently appeared or are due to appear soon: 2014/1 The Effectiveness of Capital Adequacy Measures in Predicting Bank Distress, by David Mayes & Hanno Stremmel www.suerf.org/ss20141 2014/2 The Value of Banks and Their Business Models to Society, edited by Jakob de Haan and Allard Bruinshoofd www.suerf.org/ss20142 2014/3 Banking after regulatory reforms - business as usual? edited by Esa Jokivuolle and Jouko Vilmunen www.suerf.org/ss20143 Forthcoming SUERF Events 2 July 2014 SUERF/Central Bank of Iceland Conference “Post-Crisis Recovery and the Reconstruction of the Financial Sector” in Reykjavik www.suerf.org/reykjavik2014 14 November 2014 SUERF/CNMV Conference “Challenges in Securities Markets Regulation: Investor Protection & Corporate Governance” in Madrid www.suerf.org/madrid2014 December 2014 2nd SUERF/UniCredit & Universities Foundation Workshop and Research Prize www.suerf.org/researchprize Information about further events can be found on the SUERF Website at www.suerf.org Further information about SUERF membership, events and publications can be found on the SUERF Website at www.suerf.org or by contacting the SUERF Secretariat ([email protected]). 8