4° FORUM ITALO-RUSSO A VERONA COOPERAZIONE PER LA MODERNIZZAZIONE E L’INNOVAZIONE Why Innovation Matters in Italy Gregorio De Felice Chief Economist Verona, October 28, 2011 The current scenario for Italian firms Given the modest economic expansion of the Italian and European economies, the main engine of growth for Italian firms is a further improvement in international market shares. Many efforts are currently directed towards New Industrialized Countries. Notwithstanding the country is lagging behind in terms of growth, a deep transformation of Italian manufacturing sector is under way. The number of really outstanding firms is increasing, as a result of a tough selection process. Innovation is the key driver of growth and success for many Italian firms on foreign markets. The “new world” is already here Shares on world import 100% 80% 64.6% 60% 56.8% 40% 43.2% 35.4% 20% 0% 1990 1995 2000 Advanced 2005 2010 NIC Advanced: USA, Eurozone, Japan, UK, Canada, Australia, Sweden, Switzerland NIC: Brazil, China and Hong Kong, India, Russian Federation, Hungary, Poland, Romania, Turkey, Singapore, Korea, Thailand, Taiwan, Philippines, Indonesia, South Africa, Mexico, OPEC . Source: Intesa Sanpaolo on OEF data Forecast 2013 Italy: one of the most industrialized countries ... Per capita industrial production (current US$) 35500 30500 25500 20500 15500 10500 5500 500 Germany Italy Japan USA New EU countries Russia Source: Centro Studi Confindustria on national sources and Global Insight 3 World Brazil China India ...with many industrial clusters Technological clusters Traditional districts Source: Intesa Sanpaolo. “Monitor dei distretti” 4 A significant trade balance surplus Trade balance in industrial goods* (2009. current billion US$) 400 300 200 100 0 -100 -200 -300 -400 China Germany Japan Italy Brazil France * Excluding fuels and lubricants; agricultural goods. food& beverages Source: Intesa Sanpaolo on UNCTAD 5 India United Kingdom USA Italy's good performance on foreign markets Despite the impact of emerging countries' imposing growth on international trade, Italy has maintained its share of global exports. In the past decade, only Germany has done better among the advanced countries. Global export market share (at current prices) Germany (-0.1%) 2010 (-0.7%) Italy France 2000 (-1.6%) United Kingdom (-1.7%) Japan (-2.3%) (-3.5%) USA 0 2 4 6 Source: ICE 6 8 10 12 14 Among world leaders... Trade performance index by Unctad / Wto * Rank Country No of first positions No of second positions No of third positions 1 Germany 7 2 0 2 Italy 3 4 0 3 Netherlands 2 1 0 4 Sweden 1 0 3 5 Australia 1 0 0 6 China 0 3 0 7 France 0 1 3 8 Russia 0 1 0 9 Finland 0 1 0 Denmark 0 1 0 10 * Ranking out of 189 countries in 14 sectors Composite Index made up of 5 indices: trade balance; per capita export; world market share; diversification of each macrosector; diversification of geographical markets. 7 ...in many products Trade performance Index by Unctad/Wto - Italy Sector Ranking Textiles Leather products Clothing Basic manufacturers Non-electric machinery Electric machinery and components Miscellaneous manufacturing Processed foods Transport equipment Chemicals Wood products IT& consumer electronics Fresh foods Minerals 1 1 1 2 2 2 2 6 18 20 23 24 29 52 * Ranking out of 189 countries in 14 sectors Composite Index made up of 5 indices: trade balance; per capita export; world market share; diversification of each macro-sector; diversification of geographical markets. 8 Repositioning on high quality products has contributed ... Italian exports by price/quality ranges (% breakdown) 40.0 2001 2009 35.0 30.0 25.0 Low Medium Source: Intesa Sanpaolo on BACI data 9 High ... in part linked to greater innovative ability... The ratio of patents filed by Italian companies at the European Patent Office (EPO) to employees has increased significantly since 2000. especially in Italy's industrial districts. 3.5 Propensity to patent in Italian manufacturing (patent applications for every 1,000 employees) 3.0 2.5 2.0 1.5 1.0 0.5 0.0 1998-02 2003-07 Total manufacturing Source: Intesa Sanpaolo on EPO and ISTAT 10 Industrial districts ...higher than EU average Total number of EPO patent applications by billion EUR of Business enterprise sector's R&D expenditure (BERD) - 2008 600 500 400 300 200 100 0 Spain France EU27 Source: Eurostat 11 Germany Italy A strong product innovation capacity Enterprises that have new or significantly improved products new to the market (% 2008) 25,0% 20,0% 15,0% 10,0% 5,0% 0,0% Spain France Germany Source: Eurostat 12 Italy Switching to mid-tech specialization The evolution of Italian manufacturing structure (sales at constant prices) High tech Machinery & electrical equipment Means of transport 4.3 6.5 6.0 6.2 25.7 25.3 28.1 30.5 6.9 6.9 7.8 Intermediate goods Household system 23.4 23.9 3.7 4.7 Fashion system Other consumption goods 7.4 24.2 23.1 5.1 4.3 17.7 14.5 12.1 11.1 18.8 19.3 17.6 18.9 1984 1994 2004 2014 Source: Intesa Sanpaolo – Prometeia 13 Many highly competitive regions ... GDP per capita(2) Geographical areas Industrial vocation (3) Export propensity index (4) (Index numbers: Italy=100) 1 Top 9 Italian regions(1) 119 124 134 2 Germany 112 118 179 3 United Kingdom 110 80 85 37 4 France 103 66 93 5 Italy 100 100 100 (1) Emilia Romagna. Friuli Venezia Giulia. Lombardia. Marche. Piemonte - Valle d’Aosta. Toscana. Trentino Alto Adige. Veneto. (2) GDP per capita in 2008 Purchasing Power Parity (PPP) (3) Industrial value added (net of constructions) as a % of total value added in 2009 (4) Exports/GDP Source: Eurostat. Istat 14 ...with high R&D investments... Business Enterprise R&D as a% of GDP (Top 9 Italian regions for R&D expenditures) Toscana 2008 Campania 2000 Lazio Italy Veneto Italy Germany France Spain Liguria Friuli-Venezia Giulia Emilia-Romagna 0.65 1.86 1.32 0.74 Lombardia Piemonte 0,0 Source: ISTAT 0,3 0,6 0,9 1,2 1,5 ...sustaining a technological balance surplus Technological balance (2007-09; million euro) Veneto Abruzzo -404 -99 -92 Umbria Emilia Romagna -42 -35 Trentino AA Friuli VG 20 22 Campania Lazio Toscana 54 112 Liguria Lombardia 118 792 Piemonte Italy -800 995 1,377 -400 0 400 800 1,200 1,600 Technological balance of payments corresponds to cross-border technological receipts minus technological payments. Source: UIC