Stampa l'articolo Chiudi
14 novembre 2015
Tassi e mercati, i problemi di comunicazione
della Fed
di Kenneth Rogoff
1LHQWHGHVFULYHPHJOLRO
DWWXDOHSROLWLFDGLFRPXQLFD]LRQHGHOOD)HGHUDO5HVHUYHGHOYHFFKLRGHWWRFKHXQ
FDPPHOOR q XQ FDYDOOR FUHDWR GD XQD FRPPLVVLRQH 'LYHUVL PHPEUL GHOOD )HGHUDO 2SHQ 0DUNHWV
&RPPLWWHH)RPFKDQQRGHILQLWRODGHFLVLRQHGLWHQHUHLWDVVLLQYDULDWLFRPH³GLSHQGHQWHGDLGDWL´&Lz
SXzVHPEUDUHXWLOHILQRDFKHQRQWLDFFRUJLFKHRJQXQRGLORURVHPEUDDYHUHXQDGLYHUVDLQWHUSUHWD]LRQH
GL³GLSHQGHQWHGDLGDWL´DOSXQWRFKHLOVXRVLJQLILFDWRSRWUHEEHHVVHUH³LVWLQWRSHUVRQDOH´
,QDOWUHSDUROHODVWUDWHJLDGLFRPXQLFD]LRQHGHOOD)HGqXQDJUDQGHFRQIXVLRQHHPHWWHUHRUGLQHqPROWR
SLLPSRUWDQWHGHOPRPHQWRHVDWWRLQFXLLO)RPFGHFLGHUjGLDO]DUHLWDVVL'RSRWXWWRDQFKHGRSRFKHOD
)HGKDILQDOPHQWHIDWWRLOSDVVRGD³JLJDQWH´GDXQWDVVRGLLQWHUHVVHDSSOLFDWRGHOORGRYHVLWURYD
DGHVVR DOOR GRYH SUREDELOPHQWH DUULYHUj SUHVWR LO PHUFDWR YRUUj DQFRUD VDSHUH TXDOH VDUj OD
SURVVLPDVWUDWHJLD(LRWHPRFKHFRQWLQXHUHPRDQRQDYHUQHDOFXQDLGHD
$HVVHUHSUHFLVLGHFLGHUHFRVDIDUHqYHUDPHQWHGLIILFLOHHJOLHFRQRPLVWLVRQRSURIRQGDPHQWHGLYLVLVXOOD
TXHVWLRQH,O)RQGR0RQHWDULR,QWHUQD]LRQDOHqLQWHUYHQXWRLQPDQLHUDLQFLVLYDODQFLDQGRXQDSSHOORDOOD
)HGHFKLHGHQGRGLDVSHWWDUHSLWHPSRSULPDGLDO]DUHLWDVVL(WXWWDYLDLEDQFKLHULFHQWUDOLQHLPHUFDWL
HPHUJHQWL FKH O
)PL VWD SUHVXPLELOPHQWH SURWHJJHQGR VWDQQR PDQGDQGR XQ PHVVDJJLR XJXDOPHQWH
SRWHQWHFRQWLQXDFRVuO
LQFHUWH]]DFLXFFLGH
3HUVRQDOPHQWH VEDJOLHUz VXO IDWWR GL DVSHWWDUH GL SL H DFFHWWDUH LO ULVFKLR GDYYHUR HOHYDWR FKH TXDQGR
O
LQIOD]LRQH VDOH OR IDUj FRVu UDSLGDPHQWH GD ULFKLHGHUH SLFFKL GL WDVVL GL LQWHUHVVH GRSR 0D VH OD )HG
SURVHJXH VX TXHOOD VWUDGD KD ELVRJQR GL GLUH FKLDUDPHQWH FKH VWD GHOLEHUDWDPHQWH ULVFKLDQGR XQD
LQIOD]LRQHHFFHVVLYD,OPRWLYRSHUDVSHWWDUHqFKHGDYYHURQRQDEELDPRLGHDGLFRVDVLDDGHVVRLOWDVVRGL
LQWHUHVVH UHDOH UHWWLILFDWR SHU O
LQIOD]LRQH H FRPH WDOH DEELDPR ELVRJQR GL XQ FKLDUR VHJQDOH VXOOD
FUHVFLWDGHLSUH]]LSULPDGLDJLUH
0DVRORXQSROHPLFRQHJKHUHEEHFKHF
qDQFKHXQDOWURPRWLYRSHUDO]DUHLWDVVLDOSLSUHVWRILQFKpOD
)HGQRQFRQWLQXDDPDQGDUHVHJQDOLFRQWUDVWDQWLVXOOHVXHFRQYLQ]LRQLHRELHWWLYL'RSRWXWWRO
HFRQRPLD
VWDWXQLWHQVHqYLFLQDDOODSLHQDRFFXSD]LRQHHODGRPDQGDLQWHUQDVWDFUHVFHQGRYLJRURVDPHQWH
0HQWUHOD)HGFHUFDGLQRQIDUHFDVRDOOHIOXWWXD]LRQLWUDQVLWRULHVXLSUH]]LGHOOHFRPPRGLW\VDUjGLIILFLOH
LJQRUDUH O
DXPHQWR GHOO
LQIOD]LRQH PHQWUH LO SL JUDQGH FDOR GHOO
DQQR VFRUVR ± LQ SDUWLFRODUH GHL SUH]]L
HQHUJHWLFL ± VL VWDELOL]]D R DGGLULWWXUD VL ULEDOWD ,Q UHDOWj TXDOXQTXH GHFLVLRQH DGRWWDWD GDOOH EDQFKH
FHQWUDOLRUPDLFRQIHUPDFKHXQDXPHQWRqJLjLQULWDUGR
0DQRQIDFFLDPRO
HUURUHFODVVLFRGLHTXLSDUDUH³WDVVRGLLQWHUHVVHSLDOWR´FRQ³WDVVRGLLQWHUHVVHDOWR´
'LUH FKH OR R DQFKH O
q DOWR LQ TXHVWR FRQWHVWR q SXUD IDQWDVLD ( PHQWUH QRQ VL GRYUHEEHUR
HQIDWL]]DUHLULVFKLGLWDVVLGLLQWHUHVVHXOWUDEDVVLSUROXQJDWLSHUODVWDELOLWjILQDQ]LDULDqDQFKHVEDJOLDWR
LJQRUDUOLFRPSOHWDPHQWH
3HU TXDQWR ULJXDUGD OD GHFLVLRQH GL DO]DUH L WDVVL VL SRWUHEEH SHQVDUH FKH OD )HG VDUj SRUWDWD D IDUOR
TXHVW
DQQRGDWRFKHLOSUHVLGHQWHHLOYLFHSUHVLGHQWHKDQQRSUDWLFDPHQWHGHWWRDOPHUFDWRSHUPHVLFKH
FLzDFFDGUj/DYHUDUDJLRQHSHUQRQDO]DUHLWDVVLHQWURODILQHGHOO
DQQRVWDQHOOHSXEEOLFKHUHOD]LRQL
6XSSRQLDPRFKHOD)HGDO]DLWDVVLGLSXQWLEDVHGXUDQWHODULXQLRQHGLGLFHPEUHIDFHQGRGHOVXR
PHJOLRSHUPDQGDUHXQPHVVDJJLRDLPHUFDWL,OULVXOWDWRSLSUREDELOHqFKHWXWWRDQGUjEHQHHDOOD)HG
QRQ LPSRUWHUj GDYYHUR VH VHJXLUj XQD FRUUH]LRQH PRGHVWD VXO PHUFDWR GHL WLWROL D]LRQDUL 1R LO ULVFKLR
UHDOH q FKH VH OD )HG FRPLQFLD DG DO]DUH VDUj DFFXVDWD SHU TXDOVLDVL FRVD QHJDWLYD FKH DFFDGH
QHOO
HFRQRPLDQHLSURVVLPLVHLPHVLRXQDQQRFKHFRLQFLGHUjFRQODFDPSDJQDGLHOH]LRQLSUHVLGHQ]LDOL
GHJOL6WDWL8QLWL8QSLFFRORDXPHQWRHOD)HGqUHVSRQVDELOHGLRJQLULVXOWDWRQHJDWLYRQRQLPSRUWDTXDOH
VLDODYHUDFDXVD
/D)HGQDWXUDOPHQWHFRPSUHQGHFKHSUDWLFDPHQWHWXWWLQRQVRQRIDYRUHYROLDOO
DXPHQWRGHLWDVVLHTXDVL
VHPSUH SUHIHULVFRQR XQ WDJOLR 4XDOXQTXH EDQFKLHUH FHQWUDOH WL GLUj FKH ULFHYH ULFKLHVWH GL WDJOLR GL
WDVVLGLLQWHUHVVHSHURJQLULFKLHVWDGLDXPHQWRDSUHVFLQGHUHGDOODVLWXD]LRQH/DPLJOLRUHGLIHVDFRQWUR
TXHVWH SUHVVLRQL q RSHUDUH VHFRQGR FULWHUL WRWDOPHQWH FKLDUL ,QYHFH QRQRVWDQWH OH EXRQH LQWHQ]LRQL
O
HIIHWWRUHDOHqVWDWRYDJKH]]DHLQFHUWH]]D
4XLQGLFKHGRYUHEEHIDUHOD)HG"/DPLDVFHOWDVDUHEEHTXHOODGLGRYHUVSLHJDUHLOPRWLYRGHOO
DWWHVDLQ
PRGRSLHVSOLFLWR³$EEDQGRQDUHLOYLQFRORGHOOR]HURqGLIILFLOHYRJOLDPRYHGHUHO
LQIOD]LRQHROWUHLO
SHU HVVHUH DVVROXWDPHQWH VLFXUL H SRL FL PXRYHUHPR FRQ UDJLRQHYROH SURQWH]]D SHU QRUPDOL]]DUH´ 0D
SRWUHL DQFKH DFFHWWDUH ³6LDPR SUHRFFXSDWL FKH VH DVSHWWLDPR WURSSR GRYUHPR LQDVSULUH OD SROLWLFD
PRQHWDULDWURSSRYHORFHPHQWH´
%XWWDUHYLDLOUHJRODPHQWRDYHYDVHQVRQHOSHULRGRVXFFHVVLYRDOODFULVLILQDQ]LDULDGHO2UDQRQSL
( OD PDQFDQ]D GL FKLDUH]]D GL RJJL q GLYHQWDWD XQ LPSRUWDQWH FRQWULEXHQWH DOOD YRODWLOLWj GHO PHUFDWR ±
O
XOWLPROXRJRGRYHOD)HGYRUUHEEHHVVHUH
ÊVEDJOLDWRGHQLJUDUHOD)HGSHUDO]DUHLWDVVLHGqVEDJOLDWRGHQLJUDUODSHUQRQDO]DUOLVHVLWUDWWDGLXQD
GHFLVLRQHFRVuGLIILFLOHSUREDELOPHQWHQRQqFRVuLPSRUWDQWH0DDUULYDWLDTXHVWRSXQWRFULWLFRqJLXVWR
FKLHGHUH DOOD )HG XQ PHVVDJJLR PROWR SL FKLDUR VX TXDOH VLD OD VXD VWUDWHJLD H TXDOL VDUDQQR OH
FRQVHJXHQ]HSHULOIXWXUR6HLO3UHVLGHQWHGHOOD)HG-DQHW<HOOHQGHYHLPSRUUHODVXDYRORQWjVXO)RPF
SHUXQSR
FKHVLDFRVu4XDOFXQRGHOODFRPPLVVLRQHGHYHVSLQJHUHLOFDPPHOORYHUVRO
DFTXD
QRYHPEUH
3,‹&RS\ULJKW,O6ROH2UH7XWWLLGLULWWLULVHUYDWL
Scarica

Tassi e mercati, i problemi di comunicazione della Fed