La crisi originata dai mutui subprime e molto altro sull’instabilità finanziaria prof. Giovanni Ferri Economia delle scelte finanziarie e di portafoglio Lezione 9 But then came the global financial crisis This requires a paradigm shift In the last 15 years the international financial system lost its sense of gravity, like Willie Coyote … who helped it look up to the sky (and then fall)? QuickTi me™ e un decompressore sono necessari per visualizzare quest'immagine. 2 The Political Economy Cycle of Finance 1930s Re-Regulation Great Crash 1929 2007 Subprime Terminal part of the cycle 1970s De-Regulation Initial signals of instability 1980s Latin American Crises 1990s-2000s Mega Bankruptcies 1990s Systemic Crises (LTCM, Enron, etc) (Mexico-Asia-Japan) 3 The Minsky Model: Expansion Starting Point: -Low inflation -Low unemployment The Great Moderation (Bernanke ’04) Politicians & economists theorize the beginning of a new Era (e.g. New Economy) Positive Shocks: -deregulation -Financial innovation -Capital inflows -Low interest rates Balance sheet channel Lending channel Financial accelerator (Bernanke-Gertler,’95) Financial Sector: -Rising demand for credit -Risk underestimation -Rising supply of credit Financial Markets: -Rising asset prices (shares & real estate) -Wealth increases -Debt increases Animal spirits (Akerlof-Shiller, ’09)) -Covered -Speculative -Ponzi Real Economy: -Consumption rises -Investment raises -Lower savings -Rising current account deficit Boom: -Economy overheats -Real and/or financial imbalances grow -Financial structure becomes fragile Global Imbalances (Bernanke ’07) 4 The Minsky Model: Contraction Starting Point: -Rising interest rates -Sudden change in expectations Default of Ponzi units Negative Shocks: -Capital flows away from more speculative investment Financial Sector: -Pessimistic evaluation of risk -Lower demand for credit -Lower supply of credit (crunch) Financial Markets: -Lowering asset prices -Lowering wealth -Debt deflation -Real debt increases Debt Spiral a la Fisher 1933 -Central Bank -Government -Regulation Burst: -Banking crisis (bank runs) -Recession Real Economy: -Lower consumption -Lower investment -Rising savings -Lower current account deficit Deflationary Spiral 5 Market Liquidity & Funding Liquidity Two spirals amplify subprime related losses. Lower positions Initial losses (e.g. mortgage default) Funding problems Prices diverge from fundamentals Higher margins Larger losses 6 Il credit channel nella crisi sub-prime - 1 CAUSE MACRO DELLA CRISI: 1-BALANCE SHEET CHANNEL Greenspan + afflusso di capitali dall’Asia = riduzione dei tassi d’interesse abbondante liquidità sul mercato. The Greenspan Fed 9 9 8 8 7 7 6 6 5 5 4 4 3 3 2 2 1 1 0 1999 2000 2001 2002 2003 2004 0 FEDERAL FUNDS TARGET RATE (EP) : United States US CONVENTIONAL FIXED MORTGAGES Source: Thomson Datastream 7 Il credit channel nella crisi sub-prime - 2 CAUSE MACRO DELLA CRISI: 1-BALANCE SHEET CHANNEL Il costo dei mutui diminuisce e la domanda di case aumenta Esuberanza irrazionale: in 5 anni prezzo case raddoppia! CASE-SHILLER COMPOSITE 220 220 200 200 180 180 160 160 140 140 120 120 100 100 80 1999 2000 2001 2002 2003 2004 2005 2006 S&P/CASE-SHILLER HOME PRICE INDEX - 20-CITY COMPOSITE : United States 2007 2008 80 Source: T homson Datastream 8 Il credit channel nella crisi sub-prime - 3 CAUSE MACRO DELLA CRISI: 2-BANK LENDING CHANNEL I mutui Usa dalle banche al mercato Il processo di disintermediazione TABELLA XX Emissioni e cartolarizzazioni di mutui in Usa dal 2001 al 2006 Subprime CartolarizAnno Emissioni Ratio zazioni 2001 $190,00 $87,10 46% 2002 $231,00 $122,70 53% 2003 $335,00 $195,00 58% 2004 $540,00 $362,63 67% 2005 $625,00 $465,00 74% 2006 $600,00 $448,60 75% Alt-A CartolarizEmissioni Ratio zazioni $60,00 $11,40 19% $68,00 $53,50 79% $85,00 $74,10 87% $200,00 $158,60 79% $380,00 $332,30 87% $400,00 $365,70 91% Fonte: Ashcraft A. and T. Schuermann (2007) Jumbo CartolarizEmissioni Ratio zazioni $430,00 $142,20 33% $576,00 $171,50 30% $655,00 $237,50 36% $515,00 $233,40 45% $570,00 $280,70 49% $480,00 $219,00 46% Emissioni $1.433,00 $1.898,00 $2.690,00 $1.345,00 $1.180,00 $1.040,00 Agency CartolarizRatio zazioni $1.087,00 76% $1.442,60 76% $2.130,90 79% $1.018,60 76% $964,80 82% $904,60 87% 9 Il credit channel nella crisi sub-prime - 4 CAUSE MACRO DELLA CRISI: 2-BANK LENDING CHANNEL Fragilità delle investment banks: 25% delle passività o/n Perché costano meno 10 Il credit channel nella crisi sub-prime - 5 CAUSE MACRO DELLA CRISI: 2-BALANCE SHEET CHANNEL - le famiglie dagli standard creditizi più bassi (subprime) iniziano ad andare in default i prezzi delle case scendono e la bolla scoppia; - nello shadow banking system le modalità di raccolta fondi a breve termine si congelano - gli spread aumentano (specie su commercial paper) - Da 1/7 a 31/8/07 S&P riduce rating di 1544 titoli garantiti da mutui residenziali crollo fiducia nei rating 11 Il credit channel nella crisi sub-prime - 6 CAUSE MACRO DELLA CRISI: 2-BALANCE SHEET CHANNEL - dopo poco tempo anche il mercato dei CDO si congela - le SIV, a corto di liquidità, si rivolgono alle banche LA CRISI SUBPRIME: AGOSTO 2007 Default mutui subprime Funding liquidity* Mismatching di scadenze: rollover risk (mercato Abcp e altri prodotti strutturati); margin risk (primary brokers alzano margin requirements); redemption risk (deflusso di depositi). Intervento delle Banche centrali (iniezioni di liquidità) * facilità con la quale è possibile raccogliere denaro per l’acquisto di un’attività tramite l’emissione di obbligazioni garantite dall’attività stessa. 12 Il credit channel nella crisi sub-prime - 7 LA CRISI SUBPRIME: DICEMBRE 2007 Deleveraging Market liquidity* La Fed interviene con la Term Auction Facility (TAF): nuove linee di credito alle banche commerciali; ampia gamma di garanzie collaterali; no effetto stigma. * facilità con la quale è possibile vendere un’attività senza che il suo prezzo subisca variazioni di rilievo. LA CRISI SUBPRIME: MARZO 2008 Bear Stearns rischia il fallimento La Fed interviene su più fronti: - salva la banca d’affari concedendo un prestito a JP Morgan - nuovi strumenti per fornire liquidità ai primary dealers Perché Bear Stearns non poteva fallire? Too interconnected to fail 13 Il credit channel nella crisi sub-prime - 8 LA CRISI SUBPRIME: SETTEMBRE 2008 Il mese che ha cambiato il capitalismo Usa (e non solo): il fallimento di Lehman Bros. apre il vaso di Pandora dopo pochi giorni viene invece salvata l’assicurazione AIG ma forse anche Lehman era too interconnected to fail 14 la crisi contagia l’Europa e il resto del mondo Il credit channel nella crisi sub-prime - 9 LA CRISI SUBPRIME: IL RISCHIO DI CONTROPARTE Quattro fasi della crisi: le banche non si prestano più … rischia di bloccarsi il sitema dei pagamenti TED SPREAD (LIBOR 3M - TBILL 3M ) 6 5 4 3 2 1 J F M A M J J A S O N D J F M A M J J A S O N 0 US EURO$ DEP. 3 MTH (BID,LDN)-US TREASURY BILL 2ND MARKET 3 MONTH (RH Scale) Source: T homson Datastream 15 International Contagion As months pass, contagion extends to other markets Emerging are initially spared but decoupling is a pious illusion Heat Map: developments in systemic asset classes HEAT MAP Fonte: IMF, GFSR, Aprile 2009 16 The 2009/2010 Forecast World Recession; less pronounced in emerging economies. Fonte: IMF, GFSR, Aprile 2009 17 The crises behind the crisis & destabilizing policies The global financial crisis triggered by the subprime is non the first one but (perhaps) the last in a long series of crises appeared from the 1980s & intensified in the 1990s Financial crises gradually aggravated hitting the periphery first and then move on to the center of the financial system re-regulation is needed But to re-regulate well we need to understand past errors While conflicts of interests (a key part of the pre-crisis deviations of finance) will need to be addressed with some form of separation, three theoretical errors have made stabilization interventions destabilizing: i) erroneous risk pricing models; ii) wrong “evolutionary” view of the financial system; iii) “irresponsible” monetary policy by the Fed. 18 1. Erroneous risk pricing models - - The benefits offered by financial markets through diversification have been exaggerated by underestimating systemic risk. Starting from the base model - e.s. the Capital Asset Pricing Model - the assumption is made that sovereign risk is uncorrelated (orthogonal) to private risks. Through this it is possible deriving the CAPM fundamental formula: ERi = r + βi(ERm – r) where ERi is the equilibrium expected return on risky asset i, r is the risk free rate (approximated by the return on government securities), ERm is the equilibrium expected return on the diversified portfolio and βi = cov(Ri , Rm)/var(Rm). - The fallacy of this assumption of orthogonality of risks has become evident when governments had to intervene to salvage the banks in danger: the spreads on bank CDS lowered while those on sovereign CDS raised (following fig. 1) risk pricing models need be revised. 19 1. Erroneous risk pricing models Ballooning sovereign CDS The financial-sovereign spread visibly lowers after Lehman 20 2. Wrong “evolutionary” view of the financial system The evolutionary view postulated that financial markets be more efficient than banks at managing risks, so that banks should move from the old model (lend & keep the loans, OTH) to the new model (lend & sell the loans, via securitization, OTD). Banks’ role as certifiers of loan quality was neglected but that role was there only with OTH not with OTD granting loans to sell them rather then to keep them endangered banks’ incentives to perform in depth screening & monitoring of the borrowers, so that lending standards rapidly deteriorated. And the evaluation of the creditworthiness of the loans underlying securitizations fell back on the rating agencies who founded such evaluation on past historical default rates, but these were based on OTH and, thus, the agencies systematically gave overly optimistic ratings. 21 Il credit channel nella crisi sub-prime - 10 LE CAUSE MICRO: MORAL HAZARD & ADVERSE SELECTION Da “originate to hold” a “originate to distribute” debt Famiglie – Imprese debt Mortgage Banche Brokers debt SIV $ $ Screening Monitoring True Sale Investitori $ Agenzie di rating 22 2. Wrong “evolutionary” view of the financial system For too long we had a “crossed-eye” theory of finance: Market theory based on complete markets & perfect information; Financial intermediary theory based on asymmetric information & delegated monitoring. When, with liberalization, financial markets became dominating banks’ practice and even regulatory principles (e.g. IAS, Basel 2) moved toward financial market type activities while weakening banks’ credit function we applied to banks the theory which if adequate to financial markets is inappropriate to banks It’s wrong subordinating banks to financial markets (and also the opposite would be a mistake) we need to build on the banks-markets complementarity (Allen & Gale, 2000). 23 3. “Irresponsible” monetary policy by the Fed - - The mix became explosive when the two previous mistakes – making lenders irresponsible – were compounded with the third: a monetary policy focused only on consumer price inflation which systematically ignored the enormous global imbalances that were cumulating: the US current account deficit rose from 1.5% of GDP in 1995 to beyond 6% in 2005-06. As a counterpart of the external imbalance US households took on excessive debt – rising from 71% of GDP in 2000 to 100% in 2007 – mostly against real estate (betting on its continuous appreciation) something that became a nightmare when house prices started falling. US DOLLAR REAL EFFECTIVE EXCHANGE RATE AND CURRENT ACCOUNT DEFICIT 0.0 115.0 1995 1996 1997 1998 1999 2000 2001 2002 2003 2004 2005 2006 2007 -1.0 110.0 -2.0 105.0 -3.0 100.0 -4.0 95.0 -5.0 90.0 -6.0 85.0 -7.0 80.0 CURRENT ACCOUNT/GDP (%; left axis) REAL EFFECTIVE EXCHANGE RATE (right axis) 24 3. “Irresponsible” monetary policy by the Fed Moreover, perhaps the great moderation of inflation of the last 15 years depends more on globalization (with production being relocated to lower cost of labor countries) than on the Central Banks’ credibility and the rigor of their monetary policies It is useful to recall that: i) during the first globalization of the 1800s developed countries experienced a drop in their price level – 1.4% per year between 1865 and 1900 in the US – and not simply a lower increase in prices, i.e. a moderation of inflation ii) then the international monetary system, based on the gold standard, ruled out discretionary monetary policy i) & ii) together lead to doubt that, effectively, the discretionary monetary policies of the main Central Banks have been fundamental to lower inflation in the recent phase 25 3. “Irresponsible” monetary policy by the Fed We need to enlarge the focus of monetary policy with Central Banks not merely aiming at inflation while big imbalances grow This takes us back to the mistakes made by the Fed who kept too low interest rates for too long while the US were cumulating their external debt Furthermore, salvaging the LTCM hedge fund (in 1998) and lowering rates decidedly after the burst of the new economy bubble (in 2000), the Fed had heightened moral hazard for financial intermediaries, to the point that pundits described a kind of “Greenspan put”, i.e. an option with which if things went well they cashed in the profits and if things went awry the Fed would come to their rescue lowering interest rates All in all, those stabilization policies were destabilizing because they were founded on theoretical mistakes 26