THORPEX
David Burridge
WMO
WWRP
THORPEX International Programme Office
THORPEX Priorities
WWRP
Global-to-regional influences on the
evolution and predictability of weather
systems
Global observing-system design and
demonstration
Targeting and assimilation of observations
Societal, economic, and environmental
benefits of improved forecasts
Data Targeting
WWRP
Value of extra-tropical targeted data has been
found to be positive, but small, on average
Observations taken in sensitive areas have more
value than observations deployed randomly
There are limitations due to the current assimilation
methodologies (not yet fully flow-dependent)
Sensitive area characterization does not appear to
be the first order problem
Additional observations for tropical cyclones have
proven to be useful (further T-PARC analysis
important)
The THORPEX Interactive Grand
Global Ensemble (TIGGE)
A key component of THORPEX: a World Weather Research
WWRP
Programme to accelerate the improvements in the accuracy of 1day to 2-week high-impact weather forecasts for the benefit of
humanity. The TIGGE project has developed a database
of global ensemble forecasts collected in near realtime.
Objectives:
 Enhance collaboration on ensemble prediction,
both internationally and between operational
centres & universities.
 Facilitate research on ensemble prediction
methods, especially methods to combine
ensembles and to correct systematic errors
 Enable evolution towards a prototype operational
system, the “Global Interactive Forecast System”
300 GB per day
WWRP
TIGGE data flows
(6 to 30h after real time)
TIGGE – David Parsons (session II)
Flood prediction with ensembles
La Stampa, 29 April 2009. La Regione Piemonte
«Stato di emergenza dopo la piena». In tutto il
Piemonte ci sono stati allagamenti e smottamenti di
strade. Situazione difficile oltre che ad Alessandria
anche nel Cuneese, nell'Astigiano e in Val d'Ossola.
La presidente Mercedes Bresso ha chiesto lo stato di
emergenza. Allerta per il Po’ invece dalla Protezione
civile dell'Emilia-Romagna, dove la piena e' attesa
per oggi. La piena in Piemonte, dovrebbe avere una
portata stimata sui 7.000 metri cubi al secondo.
WWRP
Alessandria, 29 April 2009. The Tanaro river reaches extremely high
levels (photo A Contaldo, Photonews, available from
http://torino.repubblica.it/)
La Repubblica, 30 April 2009: Crolla un'arcata,
precipitano 4 macchine. Grave un automobilista
ricoverato in rianimazione. Piena del Po’, crolla
ponte a Piacenza Le auto finiscono in acqua: 4 feriti
Piena del Po#, crolla ponte a Piacenza. Un'arcata
ha ceduto alla furia della piena del fiume e l'asflato
si è piegato verso l'acqua trascinando quattro auto.
La strada si è piegata in una sorta di "v".
Piacenza, 30 April 2009. The collapse of one of the bridges across the Po’
river (photo P Caridi, WordPress, available from
http://peppecaridi2.wordpress.com/).
WWRP
Number of ensemble members based on the ECMWF EPS
forecast from the 24th of April 00 UTC simulating discharges
which exceed the EFAS high alert level for the Po river basin.
The circles denote the locations of reporting points.
Towards the Global Interactive Forecast
System (GIFS)
 The objective of the GIFS is to realise the benefits of THORPEX

WWRP

research by improving the delivery of improved forecasts of highimpact weather.
As a first step, the GIFS-TIGGE working group set up a pilot
project for the exchange of real-time tropical cyclone predictions
using “Cyclone XML” format.
Forecast and research demonstartion projects are being
developed by the GIFS-TIGGE WG and regional centres to
predict tropical cyclone tracks and heavy rainfall
WWRP
The IPY-THORPEX
CLUSTER
OBJECTIVES
Assess and seek to improve the quality of operational analyses and research reanalysis
products in the Polar Regions
Address improving data assimilation techniques for Polar Regions
Assess the skill in the prediction of polar to global high impact weather events for different
observing strategies in higher latitudes
Demonstrate the utility of improved utilization of ensemble weather forecast products for high
impact weather events and for IPY operations, when applicable
Develop recommendations for the design of the Global Observing System in polar regions for
weather prediction
Conduct field campaigns during the IPY intensive observing period to assist achievement of
the goals
Address two-way interactions between polar and sub-polar weather regimes
T-NAWDEX
THORPEXNorth Atlantic Waveguide and Downstream Impact Experiment
 address the triggering of waveguide disturbances by
different processes and the disturbances’ subsequent
downstream evolution
WWRP
 study of the downstream impacts of the waveguide
disturbances over Europe, the Mediterranean, and northern
Africa
To be performed in 2011/2012
in conjunction with HYMEX
11
HYMEX: Main Scientific Topics
WWRP
Better understanding of the intense events:
processes and contribution to the trend
Jean-Pierre Chalon – session V
EPS - RAVI
CBSXIV
March
(D Burridge)
2009
12
T-NAWDEX aircraft observations
WWRP
Use HALODemonstration
Mission HALOTHORPEX for field
phase
Test – November
2009 - UK FAAM
BAE 146-301
Large
Atmospheric
Research Aircraft
G-LUXE
Highlights - summary
WWRP
 Three major real-time international observational
programmes have been completed (for the Atlantic and
Pacific) A-TREC, E-TREC and T-PARC (Tetsuo
Nakazawa & Zoltan Toth – session II)
 Plans for T-NAWDEX and HyMeX are maturing
 Reports on the effectiveness of data-targeting have been
completed
 International data bases (TIGGE) of near-real time global
ensemble predictions from ten prediction centres have
been established and the results are being provided for
wide-ranging research by three archive centres
 The THORPEX IPY Cluster of projects have made a
major contribution to observing and NWP for polar regions
Highlights – summary 2
WWRP
 A major contribution has been made to AMMA
 The YOTC project has been established
 The THORPEX community has made a contribution to
the WWRP Strategic plan
 Regional Plans have been developed
 Three Science Symposia have been held - (2004 in
Montreal (Canada), 2006 in Landshut (Germany) and
2009 in Monterey (USA))
 In addition, the THORPEX community and partners
are leading four GEO tasks (for health, climate,
ensemble-prediction and high impact weather in
Africa) and these projects are now the main elements
of the GEO weather prediction activity.
Future emphasis
WWRP
 Basic issues of predictability and key dynamical
processes
 The required initial conditions and implied
observational coverage
 Strategies for observations targeting in critical
situations
 Tackling the problem issues in data assimilation
especially at high resolution
 Handling of the tropics particularly organised
convection, tropical cyclones and extra-tropical
transition and interactions
 Polar weather
 Seamless prediction of weather and climate from days
to weeks and seasons (see CASXV Agenda item 7)