/D SUHVHQWD]LRQH GHL SULPL GDWL VXOO·HFRQRPLD GHO 9HQHWR JLXQJH TXHVW·DQQR DO WUDJXDUGRGHOODGHFLPDHGL]LRQHHRJJLFRPHDOORUDVLFRQIHUPDXQDSSXQWDPHQWR LPSRUWDQWHQHOSDQRUDPDGHOO·LQIRUPD]LRQHHFRQRPLFDUHJLRQDOH /DOHWWXUDGLGDWLJUDILFLHWDEHOOHFRQVHQWHGLLQGLYLGXDUHORVWDWRGLVDOXWHGHOOD QRVWUDHFRQRPLDUHJLRQDOHFKHLQWHUPLQLGL3LOHVSRUWD]LRQLHRFFXSD]LRQHULPDQH VDOGDPHQWHLQWHVWDQHOOHFODVVLILFKHQD]LRQDOLHGHXURSHH 7XWWDYLDLOQRQqVWDWRXQDQQRSRVLWLYRSHULOVLVWHPDHFRQRPLFRUHJLRQDOH FKH KD ULVHQWLWR GHOOD JUDYH FULVL ILQDQ]LDULD FKH VWD LQWHUHVVDQGR O·HFRQRPLD PRQGLDOH 5LVSHWWR DO LO 3LO UHJLRQDOHKD UHJLVWUDWR LQIDWWLXQDFRQWUD]LRQH GHOORSHUFHQWRLQOLQHDFRQLOUHVWRGHO3DHVH /DWHQXWDGHOVHWWRUHDJULFRORqVWDWDDFFRPSDJQDWDGDOODIOHVVLRQHGHOODSURGX]LRQH LQGXVWULDOH H GDO UDOOHQWDPHQWR GHOOH YHQGLWH DO GHWWDJOLR ,Q GLIILFROWj DQFKH LO VHWWRUH GHL VHUYL]L GRYH KD SHVDWR O·DQGDPHQWR PHQR IDYRUHYROH GHOO·LQGXVWULD WXULVWLFD $QFKHOHSUHYLVLRQLSHUTXHVW·DQQRQRQVRQRLQFRUDJJLDQWLQHOO·HFRQRPLDGHO 9HQHWRGRYUHEEHVXELUHXQDIOHVVLRQHGHOSHUFHQWRHVRORQHOWRUQHUjD FUHVFHUHGHOORSHUFHQWR ,OPRPHQWRTXLQGLqPROWRGHOLFDWRHGRFFRUUHSXQWDUHVXOIDWWRUH´ILGXFLDµFKHSXz ULPHWWHUH LQ PRWR L FRQVXPL H TXLQGL LO FLFOR HFRQRPLFR /H LPSUHVH YHQHWH VRQR FRVWDQWHPHQWHLPSHJQDWHDSUHVLGLDUHLPHUFDWLPRQGLDOLQRQVRORTXHOOLGHL3DHVL SL DYDQ]DWL HFRQRPLFDPHQWH PD DQFKH TXHOOL GHL 3DHVL HPHUJHQWL 1HO OH HVSRUWD]LRQL KDQQR UDJJLXQWR L PLOLDUGL GL HXUR UHJLVWUDQGR XQD FUHVFLWD GHOO·SHUFHQWR/D*HUPDQLDqVHPSUHLOQRVWURSULPRPHUFDWRGLVERFFRVHJXLWD GDOOD )UDQFLD H GDJOL 8VD PD DQFKH OD )HGHUD]LRQH 5XVVD VWD JXDGDJQDQGR OH SRVL]LRQLGLWHVWD Ë XQD FRQIHUPD FKH LO IXWXUR GHOOD QRVWUD UHJLRQH GLSHQGHGDO JUDGR GLDSHUWXUD LQWHUQD]LRQDOHHGDOODFDSDFLWjGHOVLVWHPDHFRQRPLFRGLSURSRUUHDOO·HVWHURSURGRWWL HVHUYL]LVHPSUHSLLQQRYDWLYL 9HQH]LDPDU]R )('(5,&27(66$5, 3UHVLGHQWH8QLRQFDPHUHGHO9HQHWR 6RPPDULR ,QWURGX]LRQH ,OFRQWHVWRHFRQRPLFRLQWHUQD]LRQDOH ,OTXDGURHFRQRPLFRQD]LRQDOH /·HFRQRPLDGHO9HQHWRQHO 6FDPELFRQO·HVWHUR 6WUXWWXUDSURGXWWLYD 0HUFDWRGHOODYRUR $JULFROWXUD ,QGXVWULDPDQLIDWWXULHUD &RVWUX]LRQL $UWLJLDQDWRHSLFFRODLPSUHVD 6HUYL]L &RPPHUFLR 7XULVPR 7UDVSRUWL 3UHYLVLRQLSHULO )RFXV,PSUHVHHDFFHVVRDOFUHGLWR Unioncamere del Veneto 3 ,OSUHVHQWHUDSSRUWRqVWDWRFXUDWRGDO&HQWUR6WXGLGL8QLRQFDPHUHGHO9HQHWR &RRUGLQDPHQWRHVXSHUYLVLRQH 6HUDILQR3LWLQJDUR )UDQFHVFR*DOOHWWL 7HVWLWDEHOOHHJUDILFL )UDQFHVFR*DOOHWWL *LRYDQQD*X]]R 6HUDILQR3LWLQJDUR $QWRQHOOD7UHYLVDQDWR $OHVVLR=DQHOOL ,OUDSSRUWRqVWDWRFKLXVRLOPDU]R 6LULQJUD]LDSHUODFROODERUD]LRQH &($9²&DVVD(GLOH$UWLJLDQD9HQHWD &RQIDUWLJLDQDWRGHO9HQHWR $XWRULWj3RUWXDOHGL9HQH]LD ,QHD9HQHWR²,VWLWXWR1D]LRQDOHGL(FRQRPLD$JUDULD 8QUDH²8QLRQH1D]LRQDOH5DSSUHVHQWDQWL$XWRYHLFROL(VWHUL 3HUFKLDULPHQWLVXOFRQWHQXWRGHOUDSSRUWRULYROJHUVLD 8QLRQFDPHUHGHO9HQHWR &HQWURVWXGLHULFHUFKHHFRQRPLFKHHVRFLDOL 9LDGHOOH,QGXVWULHG²9HQH]LD 7HO²)D[ HPDLOFHQWURVWXGL#YHQFDPFRPLW ZHEVLWHZZZXQLRQFDPHUHGHOYHQHWRLW 6WDPSD7LSRJUDILD6,7²'RVVRQGL&DVLHU7UHYLVR 7LUDWXUDFRSLH 6LDXWRUL]]DODULSURGX]LRQHDILQLQRQFRPPHUFLDOLHFRQODFLWD]LRQHGHOODIRQWH ,O YROXPH q GLVSRQLELOH VX ULFKLHVWD SUHVVR LO &HQWUR 6WXGL GL 8QLRQFDPHUH GHO 9HQHWRHLQIRUPDWRHOHWWURQLFRVXOVLWR,QWHUQHWZZZXQLRQFDPHUHGHOYHQHWRLW 4 Centro studi e ricerche economiche e sociali ,QWURGX]LRQH 1HO LO 9HQHWR QRQ q ULXVFLWR D PDQWHQHUH LO WUHQG GL FUHVFLWD GHOO·DQQR SUHFHGHQWHVHVLFRQVLGHUDO·DQGDPHQWRGHLSULQFLSDOLLQGLFDWRULFRQJLXQWXUDOLFKH KDQQRHYLGHQ]LDWRXQUDOOHQWDPHQWRGHOO·HFRQRPLDUHJLRQDOH 1RQ VL WUDWWD GL GDWL VRUSUHQGHQWL Ë GDOOD VFRUVD HVWDWH FKH L SULQFLSDOL LVWLWXWL GL ULFHUFD QD]LRQDOL H LQWHUQD]LRQDOL VL ULQFRUURQR LQ XQD DVVXUGD JDUD DOO·XOWLPD SUHYLVLRQH 0D IRUVH FRQYLHQH SDUWLUH GDL GDWL FHUWL H GHILQLWLYL FKH VRQR VWDWL UDFFROWLLQTXHVWRUDSSRUWR /DFRQWUD]LRQHGHO3LOPRQGLDOHDILQHqULVXOWDWDHVWUHPDPHQWHSURQXQFLDWD FUHDQGROHSUHPHVVHSHUXQDUHFHVVLRQHFKHULVXOWHUjHYLGHQWHLQWXWWHOHHFRQRPLH DYDQ]DWH PD DQFKH HPHUJHQWL QHL ULVXOWDWL FKH YHUUDQQR FRQVHJXLWL QHO FRUVR GHOO·DQQR /DFULVLFKHVWDDWWUDYHUVDQGRO·HFRQRPLDJOREDOHORGLFHLO)RQGR0RQHWDULRq ODSLSURIRQGDGDOVHFRQGRGRSRJXHUUDIRUVHFRQHIIHWWLSLDWWHQXDWLLQ(XURSD FKHQHJOL6WDWL8QLWL/·HFRQRPLDLWDOLDQDqLQIUHQDWDGRSRODIOHVVLRQHGHOSHU FHQWRUHJLVWUDWDQHOOHVWLPHGLFUHVFLWDSHULORVFLOODQRDWWRUQRDOSHU FHQWRHJOLHIIHWWLQHJDWLYLVLIDUDQQRVHQWLUHSUHVWR 4XHVWDYROWDWXWWDYLDVLDPRGLIURQWHDGXQDFULVLLQWHUQD]LRQDOHFKHSXUHVVHQGR LQQHVFDWDGDIDWWRULHVRJHQLKDFROSLWRLQ,WDOLDXQ·HFRQRPLDFKHJLjULVXOWDYDSL GHEROHGHOOHDOWUH1HFRQVHJXHFKHODIDVHFULWLFDSHUGXUHUjDQFKHGRSRLOGLIILFLOH SDVVDJJLR FRQJLXQWXUDOH FKH VWLDPR DWWUDYHUVDQGR VHQ]D ULVSDUPLDUH OH UHJLRQL HFRQRPLFDPHQWHSLIRUWLFRPHLO9HQHWR Ë TXHVWD OD IRWRJUDILD FKH HPHUJH GDOOD OHWWXUD GHL SULPL GDWL VXOO·HFRQRPLD UHJLRQDOHSUHVHQWDWLLQTXHVWRUDSSRUWR 6LWUDWWDGLXQTXDGURFKHQRQODVFLDPROWRVSD]LRDOO·RWWLPLVPRPDFKHQRQGHYH FHUWR LQGXUUH DOOR VFRQIRUWR 6DUHEEH XQ HUURUH XQD GLPRVWUD]LRQH GL LUUHVSRQVDELOLWj VRSUDWWXWWR QHL FRQIURQWL GHO VLVWHPD SURGXWWLYR H GHOOH IDPLJOLH IDWWHGLSHUVRQHFKHODYRUDQRHFKH´IDQQRLPSUHVDµ 'REELDPR SHUWDQWR DJLUH FRQ ILGXFLD WXWWL LQVLHPH H FRQ TXHVWR LQWHQGR VLD LO PRQGR GHOOH LPSUHVH VLD OD 3XEEOLFD $PPLQLVWUD]LRQH ,Q ,WDOLD TXHVW·XOWLPD DVVRUEH SL GHO GHOOD VSHVD SXEEOLFD H UDSSUHVHQWD O·D]LHQGD SL JUDQGH GHO 3DHVHLQXQPRQGRJOREDOL]]DWRDQFK·HVVDGHYHGLYHQWDUHFRPSHWLWLYDDWWUDYHUVR SURFHVVLFKHSRUWLQRDGHIILFDFLDHGHIILFLHQ]D ,Q9HQHWRLFRVWLGHOOD3XEEOLFD$PPLQLVWUD]LRQHVRQRSLEDVVLFKHQHOUHVWRGHO 3DHVH FLz JUD]LH DO IDWWR FKH OD QRVWUD UHJLRQH KD GLSHQGHQWL SXEEOLFL RJQL DELWDQWL ULVSHWWR DG XQD PHGLD QD]LRQDOH GL 'REELDPR TXLQGL SUHWHQGHUHSROLWLFKHGLIIHUHQ]LDWHVXEDVHUHJLRQDOHHQRQSLLQGLVFULPLQDWHFRPH LOWDQWRYLWXSHUDWRSDWWRGLVWDELOLWjRJOLVWXGLGLVHWWRUHFKHQRQWHQJRQRFRQWR GHOOHHQRUPLGLIIHUHQ]HFKHHVLVWRQRIUDOHGLYHUVHUHJLRQLLWDOLDQH Unioncamere del Veneto 5 Introduzione 0D FLz QRQ WRJOLH FKH GREELDPR DQFKH SUHWHQGHUH LO PDVVLPR GDOOH DPPLQLVWUD]LRQL SXEEOLFKH ORFDOL H UHJLRQDOL $QFKH OH &DPHUH GL &RPPHUFLR VWDQQRLQIDWWLFHUFDQGRGLGDUHLOORURFRQWULEXWRSHUDQGDUHLQFRQWURDOODGLIILFROWj FRQWLQJHQWHLQFXLVLWURYDQROHLPSUHVH 'REELDPRSRLSUHWHQGHUHFKHLO´UHVLGXRILVFDOHµFKHYHGHRJJLVRORWUHUHJLRQL WUD FXL LO 9HQHWR FRQWULEXLUH D OLYHOOL DOWLVVLPL SL GL HXUR SUR FDSLWH DOO·DQQRDIDYRUHGHOODSHUHTXD]LRQHHGHOODVROLGDULHWjQD]LRQDOLYHQJDULGRWWRLQ PRGRGDSRWHURIIULUHPLJOLRULVHUYL]LHGLQIUDVWUXWWXUHDOOHQRVWUHLPSUHVHSHQDOD SHUGLWD GL XOWHULRUL OLYHOOL GL FRPSHWLWLYLWj FKH FL LPSHGLUHEEHUR GL PHJOLR DIIURQWDUHODFULVLFKHLQFRPEH $VHVVDQW·DQQLDQQLGDOYDURGHOOD&RVWLWX]LRQHHDRWWRGDOODULIRUPDGHO7LWROR9 O·,WDOLDVFRQWDXQQRWHYROHULWDUGRYHUVRODPDWXULWjSURSULDGLXQR6WDWRPRGHUQR /DVLWXD]LRQHVHPSUHSLSUHFDULDGHLFRQWLSXEEOLFLO·HOHYDWDVSHVDGHOOD3XEEOLFD $PPLQLVWUD]LRQHLULWDUGLGHOVLVWHPDJLXGL]LDULRLFRVWLFUHVFHQWLGHOODEXURFUD]LD VRQRWXWWLIDWWRULFKHSURGXFRQRXQFDULFRILVFDOHPROWRHOHYDWRVXOOHLPSUHVHHG LQHYLWDELOLULFDGXWHVXOORVYLOXSSRHFRQRPLFRGHO3DHVHHGHOOHUHJLRQLSLYLUWXRVH 6HPSOLILFDUHOHSURFHGXUHDPPLQLVWUDWLYHHFUHDUHXQDPELHQWHSLIDYRUHYROHDOOR VYLOXSSR GHOOH LPSUHVH q LO SULPR RELHWWLYR LVWLWX]LRQDOH GL 8QLRQFDPHUH GHO 9HQHWR SHU IDYRULUH OD FUHVFLWD GHO VLVWHPD HFRQRPLFR UHJLRQDOH 0D SHU UDJJLXQJHUH TXHVWR RELHWWLYR DEELDPR ELVRJQR GL XQ VLVWHPD FKH YDORUL]]L OD VXVVLGLDULHWjOHDXWRQRPLHUHJLRQDOLORFDOLHLOGHFHQWUDPHQWRPDVRSUDWWXWWRXQD 3XEEOLFD$PPLQLVWUD]LRQHVWDWDOHFKHIXQ]LRQL 2JJLF·qUDJLRQHGLHVVHUHSUHRFFXSDWLPDDQFKHPROWHUDJLRQLSHUDYHUHILGXFLD &RPH LQ SDVVDWR DQFKH RJJL LO 9HQHWR FRQWLQXD DG HVVHUH XQD UHDOWj HFRQRPLFD FKH PHJOLR GL DOWUH ULHVFH D WURYDUH VROX]LRQL H QXRYH SURVSHWWLYH GL VYLOXSSR IDFHQGROHYDVXOODULFHUFDHO·LQQRYD]LRQHWHFQRORJLFD&RQLPSHJQRHFRQILGXFLD VHQ]DVRWWRYDOXWDUHODJUDYLWjGHOODVLWXD]LRQHPDVHQ]DIDUVLLQWLPRULUH,QVRPPD LOSHVVLPLVPRq´IXRULSRVWRµ $QFKH TXHVW·DQQR 8QLRQFDPHUH GHO 9HQHWR DWWUDYHUVR LO SUHVHQWH UDSSRUWR LQWHQGH IRUQLUH XQ FRQWULEXWR DOOD ULIOHVVLRQH VXO IXWXUR GHO VLVWHPD HFRQRPLFR UHJLRQDOHDWWUDYHUVRODOHWWXUDGHOOHGLQDPLFKHHFRQRPLFKHFKHKDQQRLQWHUHVVDWR LOWHUULWRULRSDUWHQGRFRPHqFRQVXHWXGLQHGDLQXPHUL /H SDJLQH FKH VHJXRQR LOOXVWUDQR VLQWHWLFDPHQWH OH GLQDPLFKH VWUXWWXUDOL H FRQJLXQWXUDOLFKHKDQQRFDUDWWHUL]]DWRO·HFRQRPLDGHO9HQHWRQHOFHUFDQGR GL FRJOLHUH L SXQWL GL IRU]D H JOL HOHPHQWL GL GHEROH]]D GL XQD UHJLRQH FKH GHYH JXDUGDUHDOORVYLOXSSRGHOOHLPSUHVHHDOEHQHVVHUHGHLFLWWDGLQL 9HQH]LDPDU]R *,$1$1*(/2%(//$7, 'LUHWWRUH8QLRQFDPHUHGHO9HQHWR 6 Centro studi e ricerche economiche e sociali ,OFRQWHVWRHFRQRPLFRLQWHUQD]LRQDOH /·DFFHQWXDUVL GHJOL HIIHWWL GHOOD FULVL ILQDQ]LDULD H OH IRUWL SUHVVLRQL VXL VLVWHPL EDQFDUL H VXOOH FRQGL]LRQL GHO FUHGLWR KDQQR JUDYHPHQWH PXWDWR OH SURVSHWWLYH GHOO·HFRQRPLD PRQGLDOH ,O TXDGUR HFRQRPLFR LQWHUQD]LRQDOH JLj LQ IRUWH UDOOHQWDPHQWR QHO q SHJJLRUDWR VHQVLELOPHQWH QHO FRUVR GHO LQ SDUWLFRODUHQHJOLXOWLPLWUHPHVLFRQHIIHWWLQHJDWLYLVXOO·HFRQRPLDUHDOH6HFRQGR JOLXOWLPLGDWLGLVSRQLELOLODFUHVFLWDGHO3LOPRQGLDOHqSDVVDWDGDOSHUFHQWR GHO DO SHU FHQWR GHO PHQWUH LO FRPPHUFLR LQWHUQD]LRQDOH KD UHJLVWUDWR XQ DXPHQWR GHO SHU FHQWR D IURQWH GHO SHU FHQWR GHOO·DQQR SUHFHGHQWH*UDI 4XDVL WXWWH OH SULQFLSDOL HFRQRPLH DYDQ]DWH KDQQR UHJLVWUDWR QHJOL XOWLPL PHVL GHOO·DQQRFRQWUD]LRQLGHO3LOULVHQWHQGRGHOUDOOHQWDPHQWRGHOPHUFDWRILQDQ]LDULR GHOODULGX]LRQHGHOODGLVSRQLELOLWjGLFUHGLWRGHOSHJJLRUDPHQWRGHOFOLPDGLILGXFLD GL IDPLJOLH H LPSUHVH H GHO SHUVLVWHUH LQ DOFXQL SDHVL GL XQD GHSUHVVLRQH GHO PHUFDWRLPPRELOLDUH5LVSHWWRDOSLFFRUDJJLXQWRQHLPHVLHVWLYLQHJOLXOWLPLPHVL GHOOHSUHVVLRQLLQIOD]LRQLVWLFKHVLVRQRDWWHQXDWHSHULOIRUWHFDORGHLSUH]]LGL HQHUJLDHDOLPHQWDULHSHUODULGX]LRQHGHOODGRPDQGDPRQGLDOH,QSDUWLFRODUHDOOD ILQH GHO VL VRQR UHJLVWUDWH FRQVLVWHQWL IOHVVLRQL GHL SUH]]L GHL FDUEXUDQWL DVFULYLELOLDOODFRQWUD]LRQHGHOOHTXRWD]LRQLGHOSHWUROLR1RQRVWDQWHLOUHFXSHURGHO SRWHUHG·DFTXLVWRODGLQDPLFDGHLFRQVXPLqULPDVWDGHEROH 3,/ *UDILFR²'LQDPLFDGHO 3,/PRQGLDOHHGHO FRPPHUFLRPRQGLDOHLQ YROXPHYDUVXDQQR SUHF$QQL &RPPHUFLRPRQGLDOHYROXPH )RQWHHODE8QLRQFDPHUHGHO9HQHWRVXGDWL)0,:(28SGDWH*HQQDLR ,O GHWHULRUDPHQWR GHOO·HFRQRPLD PRQGLDOH q VWDWR LQGRWWR SULQFLSDOPHQWH GD SURVSHWWLYHGLFUHVFLWDFRQWHQXWDGHJOL6WDWL8QLWLHGHJOLDOWULSDHVLLQGXVWULDOL]]DWL H GDOOD IUHQDWD GHL SDHVL HPHUJHQWL LQ VHJXLWR DOO·LQGHEROLPHQWR GHOOD GRPDQGD HVWHUD H DOOH ULFDGXWH QHJDWLYH GHL PHUFDWL ILQDQ]LDUL $ FDXVD GHO FDOR GHO TXDUWR WULPHVWUHQHOLO3LOGHJOL6WDWL8QLWLKDUHJLVWUDWRXQDFUHVFLWDGHOO· SHU FHQWR SDUL DOOD PHWj GL TXHOOD GHO 7DE 7DOH SHJJLRUDPHQWR ULIOHWWHVRSUDWWXWWRLOFRQWULEXWRQHJDWLYRGHOODVSHVDSHUFRQVXPLSHUVRQDOLDFDXVD GHOOH FRUUH]LRQL LQ DWWR QHO PHUFDWR LPPRELOLDUH H GHOOD GHEROH]]D GHJOL LQYHVWLPHQWL /D UHFHVVLRQH DFFHQWXDWDVL QHOO·XOWLPR WULPHVWUH GHO H FKH SHU HIIHWWR WUDVFLQDPHQWR q GHVWLQDWD D SHUPDQHUH DQFKH QHOO·DQQR LQ FRUVR KD FRQWULEXLWRDGDWWHQXDUHO·LQIOD]LRQHFKHDGLFHPEUHKDUHJLVWUDWRXQDVRVWDQ]LDOH Unioncamere del Veneto 7 1. Il contesto economico internazionale VWDELOLWjVXEDVHDQQXDODYDULD]LRQHSLFRQWHQXWDGDO$IUHQDUHOD GLQDPLFD GHL SUH]]L q DQFKH LO FDOR UHFRUG GHO SUH]]R GHO SHWUROLR QHOO·XOWLPR WULPHVWUH $QFKH LQ *LDSSRQH VL q SURWUDWWR LO UDOOHQWDPHQWR GHOO·DWWLYLWj HFRQRPLFD D VHJXLWRGHOODGHEROHGRPDQGDLQWHUQDHGHOULGLPHQVLRQDPHQWRGHOOHHVSRUWD]LRQL 'RSR XQ SRVLWLYR LO 3LO QLSSRQLFR QHO KD UHJLVWUDWR XQD IOHVVLRQHGHOORSHUFHQWR $QFKH L SULQFLSDOL SDHVL HPHUJHQWL KDQQR HYLGHQ]LDWR XQD IDVH GL UDOOHQWDPHQWR 'DOODPHWjGLVHWWHPEUHOHFRQGL]LRQLGLWXWWLLPHUFDWLILQDQ]LDULHPHUJHQWLVL VRQR LQGHEROLWH D VHJXLWR GHOOD ULGX]LRQH GHOOD OHYD ILQDQ]LDULD H GHOOD FUHVFHQWH DYYHUVLRQHDOULVFKLRVXVFDODPRQGLDOH ,Q SDUWLFRODUH GRSR OD IRUWH HVSDQVLRQH GHO LO YDORUH SL DOWR GHOO·XOWLPRGHFHQQLRQHOOD&LQDqFUHVFLXWDVXEDVHDQQXDGHOSHUFHQWR VFHQGHQGR DO OLYHOOR SL EDVVR GD VHL DQQL ,O ULWPR GL FUHVFLWD GHO 3LO FLQHVH LQYLGLDELOHGDOOHHFRQRPLHRFFLGHQWDOLHQWUDWHLQUHFHVVLRQHqWXWWDYLDIRUWHPHQWH UDOOHQWDWR VRSUDWWXWWR QHO FRUVR GHJOL XOWLPL PHVL GHO 7UD RWWREUH H GLFHPEUHLQIDWWLODFUHVFLWDqVWDWDVROWDQWRGHOSHUFHQWRULVSHWWRDOORVWHVVR SHULRGR GHO GRSR LO SHU FHQWR UHJLVWUDWR QHO WHU]R WULPHVWUH LO SHJJLRU ULVXOWDWRGHJOLXOWLPLFLQTXHDQQL $QFKHVHFRQLQWHQVLWjPLQRUHSXUHO·,QGLDHOD5XVVLDKDQQR PDQWHQXWRXQEXRQULWPRGLFUHVFLWD,O%UDVLOHKDRWWHQXWRXQGLVFUHWRULVXOWDWR FRQXQWDVVRGLFUHVFLWDGHOSHUFHQWR ,O UDOOHQWDPHQWR GHOO·HFRQRPLD PRQGLDOH QRQ KD ULVSDUPLDWR O·(XUR]RQD 1HO OD YDULD]LRQH GHO 3LO q VWDWD GHO SHU FHQWR IUHQDWD GDOOH FRQGL]LRQL FUHGLWL]LH PHQR IDYRUHYROL GDOOD ULGX]LRQH GHL FRQVXPL H GHJOL LQYHVWLPHQWL DVFULYLELOL DO SHJJLRUDPHQWR GHOOH DVSHWWDWLYH /·LQGHEROLPHQWR GHOOR VFHQDULR q GLIIXVRVXWXWWDO·DUHDDQFKHVHFRQLQWHQVLWjGLYHUVH1HLSULQFLSDOLSDHVLHXURSHL VL VRQR UHJLVWUDWH FUHVFLWH PD LQ EUXVFR UDOOHQWDPHQWR ULVSHWWR DO ELHQQLR SUHFHGHQWH ,Q SDUWLFRODUH LO 3LO GHOOD *HUPDQLD KD VHJQDWR XQ SURJUHVVR GHOO· SHU FHQWR TXHOOR GHOOD 6SDJQD GHOO· SHU FHQWR H TXHOOR GHOOD )UDQFLD GHOOR SHU FHQWR 3HU LO 5HJQR 8QLWR O·DXPHQWR p VWDWR GHOOR SHU FHQWR /D FRQWUD]LRQHSLIRUWHGHO3LOVLqLQYHFHRVVHUYDWDLQ,WDOLD 7DEHOOD²'LQDPLFDGHO 3,/UHDOHLQDOFXQL3DHVL YDUVXDQQRSUHF $QQL 0RQGR 6WDWL8QLWL $UHDHXUR *HUPDQLD )UDQFLD ,WDOLD 6SDJQD *LDSSRQH 5HJQR8QLWR &LQD ,QGLD 5XVVLD %UDVLOH )PL 2FVH &RPP8( (FRQRPLHDYDQ]DWH (FRQRPLHHPHUJHQWL *'3 )RQWL GDWL )0, VWLPH )0, :(2 8SGDWH *HQQDLR 2&6( (FRQRPLF 2XWORRN 1RYHPEUH (XURSHDQ &RPPLVVLRQ ,QWHULP )RUHFDVW *HQQDLR 8 Centro studi e ricerche economiche e sociali ,OTXDGURHFRQRPLFRQD]LRQDOH 'RSRXQGHEROHqFRQWLQXDWRQHOLOIRUWHUDOOHQWDPHQWRGHOO·HFRQRPLD LWDOLDQD ,O 3LO QD]LRQDOH q FUROODWR WRFFDQGR L PLQLPL VWRULFL GD ROWUH WUHQW·DQQL LJQRUDQGROHSHJJLRULSUHYLVLRQLIRUPXODWHGXUDQWHO·DQQR'RSRDYHUSURVSHWWDWR SHULOXQWDVVRGLVYLOXSSRGHOORSHUFHQWRDGLFHPEUHO·2FVHKDVWLPDWR SHU O·,WDOLD XQD FRQWUD]LRQH GHO 3LO GHOOR SHU FHQWR 3L SHVVLPLVWLFKH OH SUHYLVLRQL VXOO·,WDOLD GLIIXVH GDO )PL FKH VH LQ DXWXQQR DYHYD VWLPDWR XQD GHFUHVFLWD GHOOR SHU FHQWR D IHEEUDLR KD ULYLVWR DO ULEDVVR OD VWLPD SRUWDQGROD DO SHU FHQWR $QDORJD FRQWUD]LRQH q VWDWD IRUPXODWD GDOOD &RPPLVVLRQH (XURSHD D FDXVD GHOOD GRPDQGD LQWHUQD H GHOOD SRVL]LRQH FRPSHWLWLYD GHOO·,WDOLD SL GHEROH ULVSHWWR DJOL DOWUL 3DHVL GHOO·DUHD HXUR ,Q OLQHD DQFKH OH SUHYLVLRQL GHO *RYHUQR FKH D QRYHPEUH KDQQR VWLPDWR XQ SHUFHQWRPHQWUHQHOO·DJJLRUQDPHQWRGHO3URJUDPPDGLVWDELOLWjKDQQRULYLVWRLO 3LOLQFDORGHOORSHUFHQWR 6HFRQGR L GDWL GHILQLWLYL GLIIXVL GDOO·,VWDW D PDU]R QHO FRUVR GHO LO 3LO GHOO·,WDOLD q GLPLQXLWR GHOO· SHU FHQWR VHJQDQGR XQD IRUWH GHFHOHUD]LRQH ULVSHWWRDOSHUFHQWRPHVVRDVHJQRQHO7DEËLOSHJJLRUFDORGDO TXDQGRVLHUDUHJLVWUDWDXQDIOHVVLRQHGHOSHUFHQWRFKHFROORFDLOQRVWUR 3DHVHLQFRGDDLSULQFLSDOL3DHVLHXURSHL*HUPDQLD5HJQR8QLWRH)UDQFLD 'DOSXQWRGLYLVWDGHOODIRUPD]LRQHGHOSURGRWWRQHOODFRQWUD]LRQHGHO3LO LWDOLDQRqVWDWDGHWHUPLQDWDSUHYDOHQWHPHQWHGDOODIOHVVLRQHGHOO·LQGXVWULDLQVHQVR VWUHWWR H GHOOH FRVWUX]LRQL 6ROR LO VHWWRUH DJULFROR KD IDWWR UHJLVWUDUHXQDFUHVFLWDSDULDSHUFHQWR 3HJJLRUDQRQHODQFKHLFRQWLSXEEOLFLLOUDSSRUWRGHILFLW3LOVLqDWWHVWDWRDO SHU FHQWR VXSHULRUH D TXHOOR UHJLVWUDWR QHO PHQWUH O·DYDQ]R SULPDULRqVFHVRGDODOSHUFHQWRGHO3LO/DSUHVVLRQHILVFDOHqULVXOWDWDSDUL DO SHU FHQWR SL EDVVD GL WUH GHFLPL GL SXQWR ULVSHWWR DO SHU FHQWR GHO SHUHIIHWWRFRPELQDWRGLXQDXPHQWRGHOOHLPSRVWHGLUHWWHHGHLFRQWULEXWL VRFLDOLHIIHWWLYLHGLXQDIOHVVLRQHGHOOHLPSRVWHLQGLUHWWH /D ULGX]LRQH GHOOD OLTXLGLWj QHO VLVWHPD ILQDQ]LDULR KD GDQQHJJLDWR O·HFRQRPLD UHDOH FRQ FRQVHJXHQWH UHVWUL]LRQH GHO FUHGLWR DL GDQQL GHOOH IDPLJOLH H GHOOH LPSUHVH 6L HYLGHQ]LD LQIDWWL XQ FDOR GHOOD GRPDQGD LQWHUQD GHO SHU FHQWR PHQWUHOD GLPLQX]LRQHGHLFRQVXPL GHOOHIDPLJOLHqVWDWDSDUL DOOR SHU FHQWR *OL LQYHVWLPHQWL ILVVL ORUGL KDQQR UHJLVWUDWR XQR VYLOXSSR SDUWLFRODUPHQWH ULGRWWRFRQXQDFRQWUD]LRQHGHOSHUFHQWRULVXOWDWRGLXQDIOHVVLRQHGLTXHOOLLQ PDFFKLQDUL HG DWWUH]]DWXUH LQ FRVWUX]LRQL LQ PH]]L GL WUDVSRUWR HGLXQDVWD]LRQDULHWjGHLEHQLLPPDWHULDOL ,Q UDOOHQWDPHQWR DQFKH OD GRPDQGD HVWHUD OH HVSRUWD]LRQL GL EHQL VHFRQGR OH QRVWUH VWLPH KDQQR VHJQDWR XQD FUHVFLWD VX EDVH DQQXD GHOO· SHU FHQWR HUD ODYDULD]LRQH/HLPSRUWD]LRQLGLEHQLKDQQRLQYHFHUHJLVWUDWR XQDXPHQWRGHOSHUFHQWRHUD 2&6((FRQRPLF2XWORRNQRYHPEUH )0,:RUOG(FRQRPLF2XWORRNDSULOHRWWREUHHJHQQDLR &RPPLVVLRQH(XURSHD(FRQRPLF)RUHFDVWQRYHPEUHHJHQQDLR 5HOD]LRQH3UHYLVLRQDOH3URJUDPPDWLFDVHWWHPEUHH3URJUDPPDGLVWDELOLWjGHOO·,WDOLDIHEEUDLR 2OWUHDOOHVWLPHSHUO·DQQRO·,VWDWKDGLIIXVROHUHYLVLRQLGHOOHVWLPHGHO3LOSHULOSHULRGR HIIHWWXDWHLQRWWHPSHUDQ]DDOOHUHJROHFRPXQLWDULHFIUZZZLVWDWLW,QSDUWLFRODUHODFUHVFLWDGHO3LOQHO qVWDWDDXPHQWDWDGLXQGHFLPRGLSXQWRHUD Unioncamere del Veneto 9 2. Il quadro economico nazionale 7DEHOOD²3ULQFLSDOL LQGLFDWRULHFRQRPLFLLQ DOFXQHUHJLRQLLWDOLDQH $QQR 3HU TXDQWR ULJXDUGD O·RFFXSD]LRQH QHO OH XQLWj GL ODYRUR VRQR ULPDVWH VWDELOL 7DOH LQYDULDQ]D q LO ULVXOWDWR GHOOH GLQDPLFKH FRQWUDSSRVWH GL WUH GLYHUVL IDWWRUL XQ PDJJLRU ULFRUVR GD SDUWH GHOOH LPSUHVH DOOD FDVVD LQWHJUD]LRQH JXDGDJQL XQ DXPHQWR GHOOH SRVL]LRQL ODYRUDWLYH SDUWWLPH XQD FRQWUD]LRQH GHOO·RFFXSD]LRQH LQGLSHQGHQWH 7XWWDYLD QRQ FL VRQR VWDWL ULIOHVVL SHU LO QXPHUR GHJOLRFFXSDWLLQWHUQLFKHVRQRULVXOWDWLDQFRUDLQFUHVFLWD'DOSXQWRGL YLVWD VHWWRULDOH VL VRQR UHJLVWUDWH GLPLQX]LRQL GHOOH XQLWj GL ODYRUR WRWDOL QHOOH FRVWUX]LRQL QHOO·LQGXVWULD LQ VHQVR VWUHWWR QHO VHWWRUH DJULFROR PHQWUHVRQRDXPHQWDWHTXHOOHQHLVHUYL]L ,ULIOHVVLGHOODFULVLVHPEUDQRQRQHPHUJHUHGDOO·LQGDJLQH,VWDWVXOOHIRU]HGLODYRUR FKHQHOKDHYLGHQ]LDWRXQLQFUHPHQWRSDULDOORSHUFHQWRFRQGLQDPLFKH SRVLWLYH LQ WXWWH OH ULSDUWL]LRQL IDWWD HFFH]LRQH SHU LO 0H]]RJLRUQR ,Q FUHVFLWD LO WDVVRGLGLVRFFXSD]LRQHFKHQHOqVDOLWRGDODOSHUFHQWR 3,/ 'RPDQGD LQWHUQD &RQVXPL IDPLJOLH ,QYHVWLP ILVVLORUGL 3LHPRQWH /RPEDUGLD 9HQHWR (PLOLD5RPDJQD 7RVFDQD 1RUG2YHVW 1RUG(VW &HQWUR 6XGH,VROH ,WDOLD )RQWH,VWDW3URPHWHLD6FHQDULSHUOHHFRQRPLHORFDOLIHEEUDLR LGDWLSHUUHJLRQHHULSDUWL]LRQHVRQRVWLPH3URPHWHLD HODE8QLRQFDPHUHGHO9HQHWRVXGDWL,VWDW ([SRUW 2FFXSD] /·XQLWjGLODYRURUDSSUHVHQWDODTXDQWLWjGLODYRURSUHVWDWRQHOO·DQQRGDXQRFFXSDWRDWHPSRSLHQRRSSXUH OD TXDQWLWj GL ODYRUR HTXLYDOHQWH SUHVWDWD GD ODYRUDWRUL D WHPSR SDU]LDOH R GD ODYRUDWRUL FKH VYROJRQR XQ GRSSLR ODYRUR 4XHVWR FRQFHWWR QRQ q SL OHJDWR DOOD VLQJROD SHUVRQD ILVLFD PD ULVXOWD UDJJXDJOLDWR DG XQ QXPHUR GL RUH DQQXH FRUULVSRQGHQWL DG XQ·RFFXSD]LRQH HVHUFLWDWD D WHPSR SLHQR QXPHUR FKH SXz GLYHUVLILFDUVL LQ IXQ]LRQH GHOOD GLIIHUHQWH DWWLYLWj ODYRUDWLYD /H XQLWj GL ODYRUR VRQR GXQTXH XWLOL]]DWHFRPH XQLWjGLPLVXUDGHOYROXPHGLODYRURLPSLHJDWRQHOODSURGX]LRQHGHLEHQLHVHUYL]LULHQWUDQWLQHOOHVWLPHGHO 3URGRWWRLQWHUQRORUGRLQXQGHWHUPLQDWRSHULRGRGLULIHULPHQWR/HXQLWjGLODYRURVRQRFDOFRODWHDOQHWWRGHO ULFRUVRDOODFDVVDLQWHJUD]LRQHJXDGDJQL ,O FRQFHWWR GL RFFXSDWL LQWHUQL FRLQFLGH FRQ LO QXPHUR PHGLR QHO SHULRGR SUHVR LQ HVDPH GHOOH SHUVRQH ILVLFKHFKHHVHUFLWDQRXQDDWWLYLWjGLSURGX]LRQHFRPHGHILQLWDGDO6(&LQXQLWjSURGXWWLYHGLVORFDWHVXOOD SRU]LRQH GL WHUULWRULR RJJHWWR GL VWXGLR 1HOOD GHILQL]LRQH GL RFFXSDWR VRQR LQFOXVH OH SHUVRQH WHPSRUDQHDPHQWH QRQ DO ODYRUR FKH PDQWHQJRQR XQ OHJDPH IRUPDOH FRQ OD ORUR SRVL]LRQH ODYRUDWLYD QHOOD IRUPDDGHVHPSLRGLXQDJDUDQ]LDGLULSUHQGHUHLOODYRURRGLXQDFFRUGRFLUFDODGDWDGLXQDVXDULSUHVD, ODYRUDWRULLQFDVVDLQWHJUD]LRQHJXDGDJQLULHQWUDQRLQTXHVWDWLSRORJLDGLRFFXSDWL 10 Centro studi e ricerche economiche e sociali /·HFRQRPLDGHO9HQHWRQHO /·DJJUDYDUVL GHOOD FULVL ILQDQ]LDULD LQWHUQD]LRQDOH KD SRUWDWR D ULYHGHUH DQFKH OH SURVSHWWLYH GL FUHVFLWD GHOO·HFRQRPLD YHQHWD ,Q OLQHD FRQ LO UHVWR GHO 3DHVH LO 9HQHWR KD UHJLVWUDWR QHO FRUVR GHO XQD PDUFDWD GHFUHVFLWD ULVSHWWR DOO·DQQR SUHFHGHQWH 6HFRQGR OH VWLPH GLIIXVH GD 8QLRQFDPHUH ,WDOLDQD LO 3LO UHJLRQDOH D SUH]]L FRVWDQWL KD VHJQDWR XQD FRQWUD]LRQH GHOOR SHU FHQWR ULVSHWWR DO 'RSR XQD FUHVFLWD GHOO· SHU FHQWR UHJLVWUDWD VLD QHO FKH QHO OH SUHYLVLRQLSHULOFKHDPDJJLRHDOXJOLRVWLPDYDQRXQDXPHQWRGHOORSHU FHQWRVLVRQRTXLQGLDWWHVWDWHDWWRUQRDOODFUHVFLWDQXOOD /H SL UHFHQWL SUHYLVLRQL IRUPXODWH GD 3URPHWHLD ULVSHFFKLDQR PDJJLRUPHQWH OD GLQDPLFDHFRQRPLFDGHO9HQHWRQHO/RVFHQDULRSUHGLVSRVWRKDHYLGHQ]LDWR SHU LO 9HQHWR XQD FRQWUD]LRQH GHO 3LO GHOOR SHU FHQWR H SHU LO 1RUG(VW GHOORSHUFHQWR*UDI 9HQHWR *UDILFR²$QGDPHQWRGHO 3,/LQ9HQHWRHLQ,WDOLD YDUVXDQQRSUHF $QQL ,WDOLD )RQWHHODE8QLRQFDPHUHGHO9HQHWRVXGDWL,VWDWH3URPHWHLD 1HOFRQIURQWRFRQOHDOWUHUHJLRQL7DELOWDVVRGLYDULD]LRQHGHO3LOUHJLRQDOHq ULVXOWDWR OLHYHPHQWH PLJOLRUH D TXHOOR GHOOD /RPEDUGLD GHO 3LHPRQWH H GHO 7UHQWLQR$OWR$GLJHWXWWHUHJLRQLFKHKDQQRUHJLVWUDWRXQDFRQWUD]LRQHGHOOR SHUFHQWR0DJJLRUHODIOHVVLRQHGHOO·8PEULDHGHOOD7RVFDQD/D GLQDPLFD GHO 3LO YHQHWR q LQYHFH DSSDUVD SHJJLRUH D TXHOOD GHO )ULXOL 9HQH]LD *LXOLDHGHOO·(PLOLD5RPDJQDHQWUDPEHHGHOOD9DOOHG·$RVWDSHUODTXDOHq VWDWDSUHYLVWDXQDVRVWDQ]LDOHVWDELOLWj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nioncamere del Veneto 11 3. L’economia del Veneto nel 2008 GHOO·HFRQRPLD UHJLRQDOH q VWDWD GHWHUPLQDWD GDOO·DQGDPHQWR QHJDWLYR GHOOH FRVWUX]LRQL FRQ XQ SHU FHQWR H GHO FRPSDUWR PDQLIDWWXULHUR FKH KD UHJLVWUDWR XQ FDOR GHO SHU FHQWR 6ROR LO VHWWRUH DJULFROR KD FRQWULEXLWR SRVLWLYDPHQWH VXOO·HFRQRPLD UHJLRQDOH PHWWHQGR D VHJQR XQ LQFUHPHQWR GHO SHUFHQWR0HQRPDUFDWRLQYHFHO·DSSRUWRGHOVHWWRUHGHLVHUYL]LFKHKDUHJLVWUDWR XQDFUHVFLWDGHOORSHUFHQWR 7DEHOOD²3,/ RFFXSD]LRQHHSURGXWWLYLWj FRQIURQWR9HQHWRH,WDOLD $QQL QXPHURLQGLFH YDORULDVVROXWL 9HQHWR 3,/POQGLHXUR 8QLWjGLODYRUR 3,/SHU8ODGLHXUR ,WDOLD 3,/POQGLHXUR 8QLWjGLODYRUR 3,/SHU8ODGLHXUR 9HQHWR 3,/POQGLHXUR 8QLWjGLODYRUR 3,/SHU8ODGLHXUR ,WDOLD 3,/POQGLHXUR 8QLWjGLODYRUR 3,/SHU8ODGLHXUR )RQWH,VWDW3RPHWHLD $OODGLPLQX]LRQHGHO3LOKDFRQWULEXLWRDQFKHLOUDOOHQWDPHQWRGHOODGLQDPLFDGHOOH HVSRUWD]LRQL'RSRODEXRQDSHUIRUPDQFHGHOELHQQLRSUHFHGHQWHHUDQHO HQHOJOLVFDPELFRPPHUFLDOLKDQQRVHJQDWRQHOFRUVRGHO XQD EUXVFD IUHQDWD 6HFRQGR OH QRVWUH VWLPH OH HVSRUWD]LRQL LQ 9HQHWR VRQR DXPHQWDWHGHOO·SHUFHQWRPHQWUHOHLPSRUWD]LRQLKDQQRVHJQDWRXQDIOHVVLRQH SDULDSHUFHQWR $QFKH VXO YHUVDQWH GHOOD VWUXWWXUD SURGXWWLYD H GHO PHUFDWR GHO ODYRUR VL HYLGHQ]LDQR VHJQDOL GL GHFHOHUD]LRQH 1HO LO QXPHUR GL LPSUHVH UHJLVWUDWH q OLHYHPHQWHGLPLQXLWRPHQWUHqDXPHQWDWRLOULFRUVRDOOD&,*HDOOHOLVWH GLPRELOLWjHOHDVVXQ]LRQLLQFRUVRG·DQQRVLVRQRULGRWWH,OOLYHOORGLSURGXWWLYLWj GHO VLVWHPD HFRQRPLFR UHJLRQDOH ULPDQH FRPXQTXH HOHYDWR 1HO LQIDWWL LO YDORUH GHO 3LO SHU XQLWj GL ODYRUR KD UHJLVWUDWR XQ UDIIRU]DPHQWR VXSHUDQGR L PLODHXURHDOODUJDQGRFRVuLOGLYDULRULVSHWWRDOODPHGLDQD]LRQDOHFKHqULPDVWD VWDELOHGDOPLODHXUR7DE 6HFRQGR LO SURILOR FRQJLXQWXUDOH WUDFFLDWR VXOOD EDVH GHL GDWL GLVSRQLELOL LO SXz HVVHUH YLVWR FRPH XQ DQQR GL UDOOHQWDPHQWR SHU O·HFRQRPLD GHO 9HQHWR LQ VHJXLWR DOO·LQGHEROLPHQWR GHOOD GRPDQGD HVWHUD H GHL FRQVXPL SULYDWL DFFRPSDJQDWR GDOOD FRQWUD]LRQH GHO FRPSDUWR GHOOH FRVWUX]LRQL H GHO VHWWRUH LQGXVWULDOH ,VWDWSHUJOLDQQL&RQWLUHJLRQDOL3URPHWHLDSHUO DQQRVWLPHIHEEUDLR 3HUDSSURIRQGLPHQWLVLULQYLDDOSDUDJUDIR´6FDPELFRQO·HVWHURµ 3HUDSSURIRQGLPHQWLVLULQYLDDOSDUDJUDIR´6WUXWWXUDSURGXWWLYDµ 12 Centro studi e ricerche economiche e sociali L’economia del Veneto nel 2008 e previsioni 2009 6FDPELFRQO·HVWHUR /H WXUEROHQ]H GHJOL VFHQDUL H LO UDOOHQWDPHQWR GHOO·HFRQRPLD KDQQR JUDYDWR VXOO·DQGDPHQWR GHOOH HVSRUWD]LRQL YHQHWH 6H QHO LO FRPPHUFLR HVWHUR GHO 9HQHWR KD UDJJLXQWR L PLOLDUGL GL HXUR ULYHODQGR XQD SHUIRUPDQFH PLJOLRUH ULVSHWWR D TXHOOD DQWLFLSDWD XQ DQQR ID VXOOD EDVH GHL GDWL SURYYLVRUL PLOLDUGL QHO OH HVSRUWD]LRQL UHJLRQDOL KDQQR ULVHQWLWR GHOOH FULWLFLWj GHOOD FRQJLXQWXUD HFRQRPLFD UHJLVWUDQGR XQ GHEROH DXPHQWR ULVSHWWR DOO·DQQR SUHFHGHQWH 7DOLFRQVLGHUD]LRQLHPHUJRQRGDOOHVWLPHHIIHWWXDWHVXOODEDVHGHLGDWLSURYYLVRUL GLIIXVL GDOO·,VWDW FKH FRPH QRWR ULVXOWDQR VRWWRVWLPDWL H QRQ FRQVHQWRQR GL HIIHWWXDUH XQ·DQDOLVL FRUUHWWD GHOOH UHDOL GLQDPLFKH GHJOL VFDPEL FRPPHUFLDOL FRQ O·HVWHUR D OLYHOOR UHJLRQDOH H SURYLQFLDOH VRSUDWWXWWR SHU TXHL VLVWHPL SURGXWWLYL FDUDWWHUL]]DWLGDXQ·HOHYDWDSURSHQVLRQHDOO·H[SRUWFRPHLO9HQHWR 1RQ SRWHQGR GLVSRUUH GHL GDWL GHILQLWLYL FKH YHQJRQR GLIIXVL GDOO·,VWDW D ILQH DQQRPDSRWHQGRGLVSRUUHGHOGDWRGHILQLWLYRUHODWLYRDOVLqSURYYHGXWRD FDOFRODUHODVWLPDGHOO·H[SRUWSHULODOORVFRSRGLIRUQLUHXQDYDOXWD]LRQHVX EDVH DQQXD SL DWWHQGLELOH ULVSHWWR D TXHOOD SURSRVWD GDOO·,VWDW FKH FDOFROD OD YDULD]LRQHUDSSRUWDQGRLGDWLSURYYLVRULVRWWRVWLPDWLFRQGDWLGHILQLWLYL FRUUHWWL 6XOOD EDVH GHOOH VWLPH SURGRWWH QHO OH HVSRUWD]LRQL GHO 9HQHWR VRQR DXPHQWDWH GHOO· SHU FHQWR ULVSHWWR DOO·DQQR SUHFHGHQWH UDJJLXQJHQGR L PLOLDUGLGLHXUR7DOHGDWRHYLGHQ]LDODIRUWHGHFHOHUD]LRQHGHOULWPRGLFUHVFLWD GHOO·H[SRUWULVSHWWRDOOHYDULD]LRQLSRVLWLYHUHJLVWUDWHQHJOLDQQLSUHFHGHQWL QHO H QHO 7XWWDYLD OD GLQDPLFD VWLPDWD SHU LO q GHFLVDPHQWHPLJOLRUHGLTXHOODSXEEOLFDWDGDOO·,VWDWH FRHUHQWHFRQTXHOOD UHJLVWUDWDQHLSULPLQRYHPHVLGHOO·DQQR 6ROR QHOO·XOWLPR WULPHVWUH GHOO·DQQR LQIDWWL HPHUJH LQ PRGR HYLGHQWH LO UDOOHQWDPHQWR GHOOH HVSRUWD]LRQL DVFULYLELOH DOO·DJJUDYDUVL GHO TXDGUR FRQJLXQWXUDOH FRPH FRQIHUPDQR L GDWL ,VWDW H L ULVXOWDWL GHOO·LQGDJLQH WULPHVWUDOH 9HQHWR&RQJLXQWXUD VYROWD GD 8QLRQFDPHUH GHO 9HQHWR VX XQ FDPSLRQH GL TXDVL LPSUHVH PDQLIDWWXULHUH FRQ DOPHQR DGGHWWL 1HO SHULRGR RWWREUH GLFHPEUH LO IDWWXUDWR HVWHUR GHOO·LQGXVWULD YHQHWD KD UHJLVWUDWR GRSR OD FUHVFLWD GHL SULPL PHVLGHOO·DQQR XQ WUHQG QHJDWLYR GHO SHUFHQWR ULVSHWWR DOORVWHVVRSHULRGRGHO 6HFRQGRLGDWLGHILQLWLYL²GLIIXVLGDOO·,VWDWDIHEEUDLR²LOYDORUHGHOOHHVSRUWD]LRQLYHQHWHQHOq ULVXOWDWR GL PLOLDUGL SL HOHYDWR ULVSHWWR DL GDWL SURYYLVRUL FKH HUDQR VWDWL GLIIXVL XQ DQQR SULPD PDU]R , GDWL SURYYLVRUL VRQR VWDWL GLIIXVL GDOO·,VWDW LO PDU]R PHQWUH TXHOOL GHILQLWLYL YHUUDQQR GLIIXVL D IHEEUDLR/DGLVFUHSDQ]DWUD GDWLSURYYLVRULHGHILQLWLYL qGDDWWULEXLUHLQWHUDPHQWHDOOHSUDWLFKH´IXRUL DQQRµRYYHURDOOHGLFKLDUD]LRQLFKHJOL8IILFLGRJDQDOLGHO0LQLVWHURGHOOH)LQDQ]HUHJLVWUDQRLQULWDUGR7DOL ULWDUGLSRVVRQRHVVHUHGRYXWLVLDDGLFKLDUD]LRQLGHOOHLPSUHVHHIIHWWXDWHLQULWDUGRVLDDULWDUGLQHOOHGLJLWD]LRQL GD SDUWH GHO SHUVRQDOH FKH RSHUD SUHVVR GHWWL XIILFL $G HVHPSLR SHU OH SURYLQFH GL 7UHYLVR H 9LFHQ]D OH HOHYDWHGLVFUHSDQ]HVRQRLPSXWDELOLTXDVLLQWHUDPHQWHDLULWDUGLGHJOLXIILFLFRPSHWHQWLQHOODGLJLWD]LRQHGHOOH GLFKLDUD]LRQL FKH OH LPSUHVH SUHVHQWDQR SHU OR SL VX VXSSRUWR FDUWDFHR H VX GLVFKHWWR LQYHFH GHOOD GLFKLDUD]LRQHSHUYLDWHOHPDWLFD/·DPPRQWDUHLQYDORUHGHL´IXRULDQQRµQRQqXQDTXRWDILVVDPDYDULDLQ IXQ]LRQHGHOO·DWWLYLWjGHJOLXIILFLGRJDQDOL $VVXPHQGR SHU LO XQ HUURUH FRQWDELOH DQDORJR D TXHOOR UHJLVWUDWR QHO ELHQQLR SUHFHGHQWH L YDORUL VWLPDWL VRQR VWDWL RWWHQXWL DSSOLFDQGR DL GDWL SURYYLVRUL XQ FRHIILFLHQWH GL FRUUH]LRQH EDVDWR VXOOH GLIIHUHQ]H WUD GDWL SURYYLVRUL H GDWL GHILQLWLYL GLIIXVL GDOO·,VWDW UHODWLYL DO ELHQQLR 7DOL VWLPH FKH GLIIHULVFRQR GDL GDWL XIILFLDOL GLIIXVL GDOO·,VWDW DWWUDYHUVR LO FRPXQLFDWR VWDPSD GHO PDU]R QRQ VL GLVFRVWDQR VLJQLILFDWLYDPHQWH GD TXHOOH RWWHQXWH FRQIURQWDQGR L GDWL SURYYLVRUL FRQ TXHOOL SURYYLVRUL SHU LO 9HQHWR XQD VROX]LRQH FKH FRQVHQWH FRPXQTXH XQD YDOXWD]LRQH GHOOH GLQDPLFKH FRQJLXQWXUDOLSLDWWHQGLELOHULVSHWWRDTXHOODSURSRVWDGDOO·,VWDW Unioncamere del Veneto 13 3. L’economia del Veneto nel 2008 *UDILFR²$QGDPHQWR GHOOHHVSRUWD]LRQLLQ9HQHWR YDUVXWULPDQQRSUHF $QQL /DVWHVVDGLQDPLFDqRVVHUYDELOHFDOFRODQGROHYDULD]LRQLWULPHVWUDOLVXOODEDVHGHL GDWL SURYYLVRUL H GLIIXVL GDOO·,VWDW 1HOO·XOWLPR WULPHVWUH GHO OH HVSRUWD]LRQL KDQQR UHJLVWUDWR XQD YDULD]LRQH QHJDWLYD SDUL D SHU FHQWR LQYHUWHQGRODWHQGHQ]DSRVLWLYDGHLSULPLQRYHPHVL*UDI ,VWDW 9HQHWR&RQJLXQWXUD , ,, ,,, ,9 , ,, ,,, ,9 , ,, ,,, ,9 )RQWHHODE8QLRQFDPHUHGHO9HQHWRVXGDWL,VWDWH9HQHWR&RQJLXQWXUD 3HULOODYDULD]LRQHqVXGDWLSURYYLVRUL 1HO LO FRPPHUFLR HVWHUR YHQHWR KD FRQWULEXLWR SHU LO SHU FHQWR DOOH HVSRUWD]LRQL QD]LRQDOL VHWWH GHFLPL GL SXQWR SHUFHQWXDOH LQ PHQR ULVSHWWR DO ,O 9HQHWR KD PDQWHQXWR TXLQGL LO VHFRQGR SRVWR QHOOD JUDGXDWRULD GHOOH UHJLRQL LWDOLDQH DOOH VSDOOH GHO FRQVROLGDWR SULPDWR GHOOD /RPEDUGLD 6HJXRQRO·(PLOLD5RPDJQDLO3LHPRQWHHOD7RVFDQD 6HFRQGROHQRVWUHVWLPHLO9HQHWRKDUHJLVWUDWRXQDYDULD]LRQHGHOO·H[SRUWPHQR YLYDFH ULVSHWWR D TXHOOD GHO )ULXOL 9HQH]LD *LXOLD H GHOO·(PLOLD5RPDJQD FKH VRVWHQJRQRODEXRQDSHUIRUPDQFHGHO1RUG(VW0LJOLRULVLVRQRULOHYDWH OHHVSRUWD]LRQLSHUOHDOWUHUHJLRQLLWDOLDQHH[SRUWRULHQWHGFRPHLO3LHPRQWH H OD /RPEDUGLD 3HJJLRUH LQYHFH OD 7RVFDQD FKH KD HYLGHQ]LDWR XQD IOHVVLRQHGHOSHUFHQWR7DE 6RWWR LO SURILOR VHWWRULDOH VL HYLGHQ]LD OD EXRQD SHUIRUPDQFH LQ WHUPLQL GL YDULD]LRQH SHUFHQWXDOH VX EDVH DQQXD GHO FRPSDUWR DOLPHQWDUH SHU XQ YDORUHGLPLOLRQLGLHXURGHJOLDSSDUHFFKLHOHWWULFLHGLSUHFLVLRQHSHU XQYDORUHGLPLOLRQLGLHXURHGHOO·DEELJOLDPHQWRSHUXQYDORUHGL PLOLRQL GL HXUR ,QROWUH KD PDQWHQXWR XQD GLQDPLFD SRVLWLYD O·H[SRUW GL PRELOLSHUXQYDORUHGLPLOLRQLGLHXURHGLFDO]DWXUHSHUXQ YDORUHGLPLOLRQLGLHXUR ,Q FRQWUD]LRQH VRQR LQYHFH ULVXOWDWH OH HVSRUWD]LRQL GHJOL DXWRYHLFROL H GHJOL DOWUL PH]]L GL WUDVSRUWR SHU XQ YDORUH GL PLOLRQL GL HXUR GHO VHWWRUH RUDIRDUJHQWLHUR SHU XQ YDORUH GL PLOLRQL GL HXUR GHO OHJQR H SURGRWWLLQOHJQRSHUXQYDORUHGLPLOLRQLGLHXURGHOODSURGX]LRQHGL PDUPR YHWUR FHUDPLFD H DOWUL PLQHUDOL QRQ PHWDOOLIHUL SHU XQ YDORUH GL &DOFRODQGRLOFRHIILFLHQWHGLFRUUHOD]LRQHGL3HDUVRQWUDODVHULHGHOOHYDULD]LRQLWULPHVWUDOLGHO IDWWXUDWRHVWHURUHJLVWUDWHGDOO·LQGDJLQH9HQHWR&RQJLXQWXUDHTXHOOHRWWHQXWHVXOODEDVHGHLGDWLVXOOHHVSRUWD]LRQL GLIIXVL GDOO·,VWDW VL RWWLHQH XQ YDORUH SDUL D 6L SXz TXLQGL ULWHQHUH FKH L GDWL RWWHQXWL GDOO·LQGDJLQH GL 8QLRQFDPHUHGHO9HQHWRVLDQRXQDEXRQDSUR[\GHOODGLQDPLFDGHLIOXVVLHVSRUWDWLYLDOLYHOORUHJLRQDOH 14 Centro studi e ricerche economiche e sociali L’economia del Veneto nel 2008 e previsioni 2009 PLOLRQL GL HXUR GHOOH RFFKLDOHULH SHU XQ YDORUH GL PLOLRQL GL HXURHGHLSURGRWWLWHVVLOLSHUXQYDORUHGLPLOLRQLGLHXUR *XLGDQR OD FODVVLILFD GHL SURGRWWL PDJJLRUPHQWH HVSRUWDWL OH PDFFKLQH HG DSSDUHFFKLPHFFDQLFLFKHKDQQRVHJQDWRXQDFUHVFLWDGHOSHUFHQWRSHUXQ YDORUHGLPLOLRQLGLHXUR$QFKHO·H[SRUWGHLSURGRWWLGHOO·DJULFROWXUDHGHOOD SHVFDKDVHJQDWRXQEXRQULVXOWDWRFRQXQDXPHQWRGHOSHUFHQWRSHUXQYDORUH GLPLOLRQLGLHXUR7DE ,PSRUWD]LRQL D E YDU 7DEHOOD²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nioncamere del Veneto 7DEHOOD²9HQHWR (VSRUWD]LRQLSHUWLSRORJLD GLSURGRWWRPLOLRQLGL HXUR$QQL 15 3. L’economia del Veneto nel 2008 1HOOD FODVVLILFD GHL SULQFLSDOL SDUWQHU FRPPHUFLDOL GHO 9HQHWR SHUPDQJRQR QHOOH SULPH WUH SRVL]LRQL OD *HUPDQLD PLOLRQL GL HXUR OD )UDQFLD PLOLRQL GL HXUR H JOL 6WDWL 8QLWL PLOLRQL GL HXUR 7XWWDYLD OH YHQGLWH YHUVR LO PHUFDWR DPHULFDQR VRQR GLPLQXLWH UHJLVWUDQGR QHO XQ FDOR VLJQLILFDWLYR ULVSHWWR DOO·DQQR SUHFHGHQWH 'LPLQXLVFRQR DQFKH OH HVSRUWD]LRQL YHUVR OD 6SDJQD LO 5HJQR 8QLWR H OD 5RPDQLD LQ OLQHD FRQ OD IOHVVLRQH GHO 6WD]LRQDULR LQYHFH O·H[SRUW YHUVR OD *HUPDQLD 6L FRQIHUPD OD IRUWH FUHVFLWD GHO FRPPHUFLR HVWHUR YHUVROD)HGHUD]LRQH5XVVDFKHFRQWLQXDDGRFFXSDUHLOVHVWRSRVWRWUDL SULQFLSDOL SDHVL SDUWQHU SHU H[SRUW FRQ PLOLRQL GL HXUR UDIIRU]DQGR OD VHPSUHPDJJLRUHSURLH]LRQHGHO9HQHWRYHUVRLQXRYLPHUFDWLGLVERFFRQRQ8( 7DE 7DEHOOD²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·HVWHUR OH LPSRUWD]LRQL YHQHWH KDQQR VHJQDWR QHO XQ YDORUH VWLPDWR SDUL D PLOLDUGL GL HXUR LQ GLPLQX]LRQH GHO SHU FHQWR ULVSHWWR DO ,O 9HQHWR KD PRVWUDWR XQD IOHVVLRQH SL DFFHQWXDWD ULVSHWWR DOO·DUHD JHRJUDILFD GHO 1RUG(VW GRYH L IOXVVL VRQR ULPDVWL VWD]LRQDUL 6RQR GLPLQXLWH DQFKH OH YHQGLWH HVWHUH GHOOH SULQFLSDOL UHJLRQL GL FRQIURQWR O·LPSRUW GHOOD /RPEDUGLD q GLPLQXLWR GHOO· SHU FHQWR TXHOORGHO3LHPRQWHGHOORSHUFHQWR 16 Centro studi e ricerche economiche e sociali L’economia del Veneto nel 2008 e previsioni 2009 3HUVLVWH QHO OD VFDODWD GHOOD &LQD QHOOD FODVVLILFD GHL SULQFLSDOL 3DHVL GL LPSRUWD]LRQHSHULO9HQHWRFKHFRQVROLGDLOVXRVHFRQGRSRVWRPLOLRQLGL HXURFRQXQLQFUHPHQWRGHLIOXVVLFRPPHUFLDOLLQHQWUDWDSDULDSHUFHQWR/D JUDGXDWRULDqJXLGDWDVDOGDPHQWHGDOOD*HUPDQLDPLOLRQLGLHXURDQFKHVH QHO KD UHJLVWUDWR XQD FUHVFLWD OHJJHUD GHOOH LPSRUWD]LRQL SDUL D SHU FHQWR ,OUDOOHQWDPHQWRGHOOHLPSRUWD]LRQLKDSRUWDWRLQ9HQHWRXQVDOGRFRPPHUFLDOH SRVLWLYRVWLPDWRSHUPLOLDUGLGLHXUR /D GLQDPLFD UHJLRQDOH GHOOH HVSRUWD]LRQL q ULVXOWDWD OHJJHUPHQWH SL GHEROH ULVSHWWRDOODPHGLDQD]LRQDOH7DE0DOJUDGRXQIRUWHUDOOHQWDPHQWRULVSHWWRDO LIOXVVLFRPPHUFLDOLLWDOLDQLGLEHQLYHUVRO·HVWHURVRQRFUHVFLXWLGHOO·SHU FHQWR3LHOHYDWDODFUHVFLWDGHOOHLPSRUWD]LRQLVRVSLQWDGDOO·LPSHQQDWD GHOSUH]]RGHOJUHJJLRHGHOOHDOWUHPDWHULHSULPHQHLPHVLHVWLYLHGDOO·HFFHVVLYR DSSUH]]DPHQWR GHOO·HXUR LQ XQ FRQWHVWR GL UDOOHQWDPHQWR GHO FRPPHUFLR PRQGLDOH7DOLULVXOWDWLKDQQRDYXWRULIOHVVLVIDYRUHYROLVXOODELODQFLDFRPPHUFLDOH LWDOLDQD FKH QHO q ULVXOWDWD QHJDWLYD SHU PLOLDUGL GL HXUR LQ SHJJLRUDPHQWRULVSHWWRDOGLVDYDQ]RFRPPHUFLDOHGHOPLOLDUGLGLHXUR $ FLz VL DJJLXQJH OD FUHVFHQWH DJJXHUULWD FRQFRUUHQ]D GHOOD &LQD H GHL 3DHVL HPHUJHQWL GHO 0HGLR 2ULHQWH H GHOO·$PHULFD /DWLQD FKH VWD LQWHUHVVDQGR RUPDL JUDQSDUWHGHLSURGRWWLGHOPDGHLQ,WDO\DPLQRUYDORUHDJJLXQWR 3URYLQFH D E YDU YDU VWLPDWDF ,PSRUWD]LRQL 9HURQD 9LFHQ]D %HOOXQR 7UHYLVR 9HQH]LD 3DGRYD 5RYLJR 9(1(72 ,7$/,$ SHVR9HQHWR,WDOLD 7DEHOOD²9HQHWR ,PSRUWD]LRQLHG HVSRUWD]LRQLSHUSURYLQFLD PLOLRQLGLHXUR $QQL (VSRUWD]LRQL 9HURQD 9LFHQ]D %HOOXQR 7UHYLVR 9HQH]LD 3DGRYD 5RYLJR 9(1(72 ,7$/,$ SHVR9HQHWR,WDOLD )RQWHHODE8QLRQFDPHUHGHO9HQHWRVXGDWL,VWDW DGDWLGHILQLWLYLEGDWLSURYYLVRULFYDULD]LRQHSHUFHQWXDOHWUDGDWLVWLPDWLHGHILQLWLYL Unioncamere del Veneto 17 3. L’economia del Veneto nel 2008 6WUXWWXUDSURGXWWLYD 1HO OD VWUXWWXUD SURGXWWLYD UHJLRQDOH KD ULVHQWLWR GHO UDOOHQWDPHQWR GHOOD FRQJLXQWXUD HFRQRPLFD LQWHUQD]LRQDOH 5LVSHWWR DO LO QXPHUR GL LPSUHVH UHJLVWUDWH VL q FRQWUDWWR GL ROWUH PLOD XQLWj DWWHVWDQGRVL D FRQ XQD GLPLQX]LRQHVXEDVHDQQXDGHOORSHUFHQWR $O FRQWUDULR OH LPSUHVH DWWLYH KDQQR UHJLVWUDWR XQ LQFUHPHQWR GHOOR SHU FHQWR SDVVDQGR LQ YDORUH DVVROXWR GDOOH DOOH XQLWj VHEEHQH TXHVWDQRQYDGDFRQVLGHUDWDFRPHXQDFUHVFLWDHIIHWWLYD9DLQIDWWLSUHFLVDWRFKH WDOH YDULD]LRQH SRVLWLYD ULIOHWWH L FDPELDPHQWL DSSRUWDWL DL 5HJLVWUL ,PSUHVH GHOOH &DPHUH GL &RPPHUFLR FRQVHJXHQWL DOO·DSSOLFD]LRQH GHOOD ULIRUPD GHO GLULWWR IDOOLPHQWDUH/HPRGLILFKHDGRWWDWHLQRWWHPSHUDQ]DDOODQXRYDQRUPDWLYDKDQQR FRPSRUWDWRLOULWRUQRDOORVWDWRGL´DWWLYHµGLLPSUHVHFKHILQRDO HUDQRFODVVLILFDWHFRPHLPSUHVD´LQIDOOLPHQWRµR´LQOLTXLGD]LRQHµ, GDWLUHODWLYLDOTXLQGLQRQVRQRLPPHGLDWDPHQWHFRQIURQWDELOLFRQTXHOOLGHO HGHJOLDQQLSUHFHGHQWLHGLFRQVHJXHQ]DOHUHODWLYHYDULD]LRQLSHUFDXVHFKH GLSHQGRQRGDOODQDWXUDDPPLQLVWUDWLYDGHJOLDUFKLYLFDPHUDOLYDQQRYDOXWDWHFRQ DWWHQ]LRQHHFDXWHOD 3HURYYLDUHDTXHVWLOLPLWLLOFRQIURQWRWHPSRUDOHYDOLPLWDWRDOODFRQVLVWHQ]DGHOOH LPSUHVHUHJLVWUDWHFKHDGLIIHUHQ]DGHOOHLPSUHVH´DWWLYHµQRQULVXOWDLQIOXHQ]DWR GDOOHPRGLILFKHLQWURGRWWHFRQODQXRYDQRUPDWLYD *UDILFR²9HQHWR 'LQDPLFDGHOOHLVFUL]LRQL FHVVD]LRQLHVDOGLGHOOH LPSUHVH$QQL 6DOGRVFDODG[ ,VFUL]LRQLVFDODV[ &HVVD]LRQLVFDODV[ 'DOOHFHVVD]LRQLVRQRVWDWHFRQVLGHUDWHDOQHWWRGHOOHFHVVD]LRQLG XIILFLRHIIHWWXDWHQHOO DQQR )RQWHHODE8QLRQFDPHUHGHO9HQHWRVXGDWL,QIRFDPHUH0RYLPSUHVH 6HFRQGRXQDHODERUD]LRQHIRUQLWDGD8QLRQFDPHUH,WDOLDQD,QIRFDPHUH 6HFRQGRXQDVWLPDHIIHWWXDWDGDOOD&DPHUDGL&RPPHUFLRGL9HQH]LDFKHVFRQWDO·HIIHWWRGHOOD5LIRUPD IDOOLPHQWDUHLOQXPHURGLLPSUHVHDWWLYHqGLPLQXLWRQHOGHOORSHUFHQWRULVSHWWRDO 18 Centro studi e ricerche economiche e sociali L’economia del Veneto nel 2008 e previsioni 2009 2OWUHDOO·DQDOLVLGHJOLVWRFNGLLPSUHVHDWWLYHHUHJLVWUDWHLO5HJLVWUR,PSUHVHGHOOH &DPHUHGL&RPPHUFLRIRUQLVFHLQIRUPD]LRQLVXOOHLVFUL]LRQLHFDQFHOOD]LRQLFKH DYYHQJRQR QHOOD VWUXWWXUD SURGXWWLYD QHO FRUVR GHOO·DQQR $QFKH LQ TXHVWR FDVR SULPD GL SURFHGHUH DOO·DQDOLVL GHL IOXVVL GHOOH LPSUHVH RFFRUUH ULFRUGDUH FRPH LO SULPRWULPHVWUHGHOO·DQQRFRQVHJQDWUDGL]LRQDOPHQWHXQELODQFLRQHJDWLYRSRLFKp ULIOHWWH O·DFFXPXODUVL GL FHVVD]LRQL FRQWDELOL]]DWH D JHQQDLR PD ULIHULELOL LQ UHDOWj DJOLXOWLPLJLRUQLGHOO·DQQRSUHFHGHQWHFRVLFFKpLUHJLVWULFDPHUDOLULOHYDQRTXHVWH FKLXVXUHFRQLOELODQFLRGHLSULPLWUHPHVLGHOO·DQQRVRYUDVWLPDQGRLOGDWR 5HJLVWUDWH $WWLYH 5HJLVWUDWH $WWLYH YDU YDU $WWLYLWjHFRQRPLFD $JULFROWXUDFDFFLDHVLOYLFROWXUD 3HVFDSLVFLFROWXUDHVHUYL]LFRQQHVVL (VWUD]LRQHGLPLQHUDOL $WWLYLWjPDQLIDWWXULHUH 3URGHGLVWULEHQHUJHOHWWUJDVHDFTXD &RVWUX]LRQL &RPPLQJUHGHWWULSEHQLSHUVHSHUODFDVD $OEHUJKLHULVWRUDQWL 7UDVSRUWLPDJD]]LQDJJLRHFRPXQLFD] ,QWHUPHGLD]PRQHWDULDHILQDQ]LDULD $WWLYLPPREQROHJJLRLQIRUPDWULFHUFD ,VWUX]LRQH 6DQLWjHDOWULVHUYL]LVRFLDOL $OWULVHUYL]LSXEEOLFLVRFLDOLHSHUVRQDOL 6HUYGRPHVWLFLSUHVVRIDPLJOLHHFRQY ,PSUHVHQRQFODVVLILFDWH QF QF )RUPDJLXULGLFD 6RFLHWjGLFDSLWDOH 6RFLHWjGLSHUVRQH 'LWWHLQGLYLGXDOL $OWUHIRUPH 727$/( 7DEHOOD²9HQHWR ,PSUHVHUHJLVWUDWHHDWWLYH SHUVHWWRUHHIRUPDJLXULGLFD YDHYDUVXDQQRSUHF $QQL )RQWHHODE8QLRQFDPHUHGHO9HQHWRVXGDWL,QIRFDPHUH0RYLPSUHVH ,OGDWRULVHQWHGHOOHPRGLILFKHDSSRUWDWHDO5HJLVWUR,PSUHVHLQVHJXLWRDOODULIRUPDGHOGLULWWRIDOOLPHQWDUH $QDOL]]DQGRODGHPRJUDILDGHOOHLPSUHVH*UDIVLRVVHUYDFRPHOHGLQDPLFKH GHOOH LVFUL]LRQL H GHOOH FDQFHOOD]LRQL QRQ VLDQR FDPELDWH PROWR GDO DO JHQHUDQGR XQ VDOGR SUHVVRFKp FRVWDQWH 'DO DO OH LVFUL]LRQL KDQQR FRQWLQXDWR DG HYLGHQ]LDUH XQ WUHQG VRVWDQ]LDOPHQWH VWDELOH PHQWUH O·DQGDPHQWR GHOOH FDQFHOOD]LRQL q VWDWR GHFUHVFHQWH /·LQFUHPHQWR GHL VDOGL TXLQGL UHJLVWUDWL LQ TXHVWR WULHQQLR q DVFULYLELOH SULQFLSDOPHQWH DOOD GLPLQX]LRQH GHOOH LPSUHVH FKH ,Q VHJXLWR DOO·XWLOL]]R GHOOH QXRYH SURFHGXUH SHU OH FDQFHOOD]LRQL G·XIILFLR 'SU GHO H VXFFHVVLYDFLUFRODUHQ&GHO0LQLVWHURGHOOH$WWLYLWj3URGXWWLYH0RYLPSUHVHDSDUWLUHGDOWUDWWD LQPRGRGLVWLQWROHFDQFHOOD]LRQLG·XIILFLRGDOOHDOWUHFDXVDOLGLFDQFHOOD]LRQHGDO5HJLVWURGHOOH,PSUHVH&RQOH QRUPHVRSUDULFKLDPDWHLOOHJLVODWRUHKDIRUQLWRDOOH&DPHUHGL&RPPHUFLRXQRVWUXPHQWRGLVHPSOLILFD]LRQH SL HIILFDFH SHU PLJOLRUDUH OD TXDOLWj QHO UHJLPH GHOOD SXEEOLFLWj GHOOH LPSUHVH GHILQHQGR L FULWHUL H OH SURFHGXUHQHFHVVDULHSHUJLXQJHUHDOODFDQFHOOD]LRQHG·XIILFLRGLTXHOOHLPSUHVHQRQSLRSHUDWLYHHWXWWDYLD DQFRUDILJXUDWLYDPHQWHLVFULWWHDO5HJLVWURVWHVVR/·DOODUJDPHQWRGHOOHSRVVLELOLWjSHUOH&DPHUHGL&RPPHUFLR GL ULFRUUHUH DOOH SURFHGXUH GL FDQFHOOD]LRQH G·XIILFLR FRPSRUWD SHU RJQL SHULRGR XQD ULGX]LRQH GHOOR VWRFN QRQ GHULYDQWH GDOO·DQGDPHQWR SURSULDPHQWH HFRQRPLFR GHOOD FRQJLXQWXUD GHPRJUDILFD PD SLXWWRVWR GDOOH GHFLVLRQLGLLQWHUYHQLUHDPPLQLVWUDWLYDPHQWHSHUUHJRODUL]]DUH ODSRVL]LRQHGLLPSUHVHQRQSLRSHUDWLYH'L FRQVHJXHQ]D D SDUWLUH GDO SHU SHUPHWWHUH OD FRQIURQWDELOLWj GHJOL VWRFN OH FDQFHOOD]LRQL VRQR VWDWH FRQVLGHUDWHDOQHWWRGHOOHFDQFHOOD]LRQLG·XIILFLRHIIHWWXDWHQHOSHULRGR Unioncamere del Veneto 19 3. L’economia del Veneto nel 2008 KDQQR FKLXVR L EDWWHQWL$O FRQWUDULR D SDUWLUH GDO DQQR LQ FXL O·HFRQRPLD YHQHWDKDLQL]LDWRDGHYLGHQ]LDUHLSULPLVHJQDOLGLUDOOHQWDPHQWRVLDVVLVWHDGXQ DVVRWWLJOLDPHQWR GHL VDOGL ,O UHVWULQJLPHQWR GHOOD IRUELFH GHPRJUDILFD q VWDWR FDXVDWR QHO GDO PDUFDWR DXPHQWR GHOOH FHVVD]LRQL TXDVL PLOD LQ SL PHQWUHQHOGDOODFRQWUD]LRQHGLQXRYHLVFUL]LRQLTXDVLPLODLQPHQR (VDPLQDQGR OR VWRFN GL LPSUHVH UHJLVWUDWH VRWWR LO SURILOR VHWWRULDOH 7DE VL HYLGHQ]LDQROHIOHVVLRQLSLDFFHQWXDWHQHOVHWWRUHGHOOHHVWUD]LRQLPLQHUDOL HGHOO·DJULFROWXUDFDFFLDHVLOYLFROWXUD,QFDORDQFKHLOQXPHURGLLPSUHVH UHJLVWUDWH QHL WUDVSRUWL QHO VHWWRUH FUHGLWL]LR QHOO·LQGXVWULD PDQLIDWWXULHUDHQHOOHDWWLYLWjFRPPHUFLDOL/DVWUXWWXUDSURGXWWLYD GHJOLDOWULVHWWRULKDLQYHFHSUHVHQWDWRGHOOHGLQDPLFKHSRVLWLYH5LVSHWWRDOOD FUHVFLWDSLPDUFDWDqVWDWDUHJLVWUDWDGDOVHWWRUHGHOODSURGX]LRQHHGLVWULEX]LRQH GL HQHUJLD HOHWWULFD DFTXD H JDV H GDOOD SHVFD SLVFLFROWXUD H VHUYL]L FRQQHVVL $QFKH OD PDJJLRU SDUWH GHL FRPSDUWL GHL VHUYL]L KD HYLGHQ]LDWR XQ·HVSDQVLRQHGHOODEDVHLPSUHQGLWRULDOH,QSDUWLFRODUHODVDQLWjHJOLDOWULVHUYL]L VRFLDOL KDQQR PRVWUDWR XQ DXPHQWR VXSHULRUH DO SHU FHQWR PHQWUH GHOO·RUGLQH GHO SHU FHQWR q VWDWR O·LQFUHPHQWR GHOOH LPSUHVH GHOO·LVWUX]LRQH H GHJOL DOWUL VHUYL]LSXEEOLFLVRFLDOLHSHUVRQDOL3URVHJXHLOWUHQGSRVLWLYRDQFKHSHULOVHWWRUH GHJOL DOEHUJKL H ULVWRUDQWL H GHOOH FRVWUX]LRQL DQFKH VH SHU TXHVW·XOWLPR FRPSDUWR OD FUHVFLWD KD HYLGHQ]LDWR XQ UDOOHQWDPHQWR ULVSHWWR DOOD YDULD]LRQHGHOSHUFHQWRUHJLVWUDWDQHO 3HU TXDQWR ULJXDUGD OD IRUPD JLXULGLFD VROR OH VRFLHWj GL FDSLWDOH KDQQR PDQWHQXWR OD WHQGHQ]D SRVLWLYD VXSHUDQGR OH PLOD LPSUHVH PHQWUH VL q ULGRWWR VLD LO QXPHUR GHOOH LPSUHVH LQGLYLGXDOL FKH GL TXHOOH FRVWLWXLWH LQ IRUPDGLVRFLHWjGLSHUVRQH 0HUFDWRGHOODYRUR 6HFRQGRO·LQGDJLQH,VWDWVXOOHIRU]HGLODYRUR QHOLQ9HQHWRLOQXPHURGL RFFXSDWLqULVXOWDWRSDULDPLODPDQLIHVWDQGRXQDXPHQWRVXEDVHDQQXD GHOO· SHU FHQWR PLOD XQLWj 7DOH LQFUHPHQWR q LO ULVXOWDWR GHOOD GLQDPLFD FKH KD YLVWR LQ WXWWL L WULPHVWUL GHOO·DQQR XQD YDULD]LRQH SRVLWLYD VHSSXUH GHFUHVFHQWHFRPSUHVDWUDLOSHUFHQWRGHOSULPRWULPHVWUHHLOSHUFHQWR GHOO·XOWLPR /·RFFXSD]LRQH q DXPHQWDWD PHQR PDUFDWDPHQWH QHO 1RUG(VW H LQ ,WDOLDULVSHWWLYDPHQWHGHOHSHUFHQWR3HUTXDQWRULJXDUGDOHSRVL]LRQL SURIHVVLRQDOL q FRQWLQXDWD OD FUHVFLWD GHL ODYRUDWRUL GLSHQGHQWL DXPHQWDWL GHO SHUFHQWRULVSHWWRDOPHQWUHVLqUHJLVWUDWDXQDIOHVVLRQHSHUJOLLQGLSHQGHQWL $ OLYHOOR VHWWRULDOH LO WUHQG SRVLWLYR GHOO·RFFXSD]LRQH YHQHWD KD LQWHUHVVDWR LQ PLVXUD SL PDUFDWD O·LQGXVWULD PDQLIDWWXULHUD H OH FRVWUX]LRQL5LPDQHEXRQDO·RFFXSD]LRQHQHOWHU]LDULRQHOFRPPHUFLRVL qHYLGHQ]LDWRXQOLHYHDXPHQWRGHOORSHUFHQWRQHLVHUYL]LVLqLQYHFHUHJLVWUDWD XQDFUHVFLWDGHOSHUFHQWR&RQWLQXDDVRIIULUHO·DJULFROWXUDFKHKDPRVWUDWR XQDIRUWHGHFUHVFLWDGHOSHUFHQWR$QFKHQHOOHLPSUHVHDUWLJLDQHVHFRQGRLGDWL SDU]LDOLIRUQLWLGD&RQIDUWLJLDQDWR9HQHWR%V&RQVXOWLQJO·RFFXSD]LRQHqULVXOWDWD LQFDOR,Q9HQHWRLOWDVVRGLRFFXSD]LRQHGHOODSRSROD]LRQHWUDLHL DQQL q DXPHQWDWR GL VHL GHFLPL GL SXQWR SHUFHQWXDOH ULVSHWWR DO SRUWDQGRVL DO SHU FHQWR ,O QXPHUR GHOOH SHUVRQH LQ FHUFD GL RFFXSD]LRQH q ULVXOWDWRSDULDPLODXQLWjLQFUHVFLWDGHOO·SHUFHQWRVXEDVHDQQXD,OWDVVR GLGLVRFFXSD]LRQHqLQFUHPHQWDWRGLGXHGHFLPLGLSXQWRSHUFHQWXDOHULVSHWWRDG XQ DQQR SULPD SRVL]LRQDQGRVL DO SHU FHQWR ,Q SDUWLFRODUH LO WDVVR GL 20 Centro studi e ricerche economiche e sociali L’economia del Veneto nel 2008 e previsioni 2009 GLVRFFXSD]LRQH PDVFKLOH q ULVXOWDWR PLQRUH D TXHOOR IHPPLQLOH ,O WDVVRGLDWWLYLWjSHUODSRSROD]LRQHWUDLHLDQQLVLqSRVL]LRQDWRDOSHU FHQWRSSVXO 9(1(72 )RU]HGLODYRUR 2FFXSDWLWRWDOL $JULFROWXUD ,QGXVWULDLQVV &RVWUX]LRQL &RPPHUFLR 6HUYL]L ,QFHUFDGLRFFXSD]LRQH 125'(67 ,7$/,$ 7DEHOOD²9HQHWR 2FFXSDWLSHUVHWWRUHGL DWWLYLWjPLJOLDLD $QQL , GDWL GLIIXVL GDOO·,VWDW QRQ WURYDQR WXWWDYLD FRQIHUPD QHL ULVXOWDWL SURYHQLHQWL GD LQGDJLQL FDPSLRQDULH H DUFKLYL DPPLQLVWUDWLYL FKH KDQQR LQYHFH UHJLVWUDWR XQD FRQWUD]LRQHGHLIOXVVLRFFXSD]LRQDOLVRSUDWWXWWRQHOO·XOWLPRTXDUWRGHOO·DQQR 6XOOD EDVH GHOO·LQGDJLQH WULPHVWUDOH 9HQHWR&RQJLXQWXUD QHO O·RFFXSD]LRQH KD VHJQDWR XQD IOHVVLRQH LQ TXDVL WXWWL L VHWWRUL DQDOL]]DWL 1HOOH LPSUHVH PDQLIDWWXULHUHVLqUHJLVWUDWRXQFDORPHGLRDQQXRSDULDSHUFHQWRVRVSLQWR VRSUDWWXWWR GDOOD IRUWH FRQWUD]LRQH QHOO·XOWLPR WULPHVWUH /H IOHVVLRQL SL PDUFDWH KDQQR ULJXDUGDWR OH PLFURLPSUHVH PHQR GL DGGHWWL FKH KDQQR DFFXVDWR XQ SHU FHQWR ULVSHWWR DOOH SLFFROH H PHGLH LPSUHVH FKH KDQQR VHJQDWRXQSHUFHQWR 6RWWRLOSURILORVHWWRULDOHKDQQRUHJLVWUDWRFDOLPDUFDWLLOVLVWHPDPRGDLO VHWWRUHGHOPDUPRYHWURHFHUDPLFDHLOFRPSDUWRUHVLGXDOHGRYHSUHYDOH LOVHWWRUHRUDIR3LFRQWHQXWDODGHFUHVFLWDRFFXSD]LRQDOHQHLVHWWRULGHO OHJQRPRELOLR GHOOD FDUWD VWDPSD HG HGLWRULD H GHL PHWDOOL H SURGRWWL LQ PHWDOOR 3UHVVRFKpVWDELOHODGLQDPLFDRFFXSD]LRQDOHGHJOLDOWULFRPSDUWL3RVLWLYD LQYHFH OD SHUIRUPDQFH GHOO·RFFXSD]LRQH VWUDQLHUD DXPHQWDWD GHOO· SHU FHQWR ULVSHWWR DO LQ SDUWLFRODUH QHL VHWWRUL GHOOH PDFFKLQH XWHQVLOL H GHOO·DOLPHQWDUH 3HU TXDQWR ULJXDUGD LO WHU]LDULR O·RFFXSD]LRQH QHO q ULPDVWDVWD]LRQDULDUHJLVWUDQGRLQPHGLDDQQXDXQDXPHQWRGHOORSHUFHQWRQHL VHUYL]LHXQDGLPLQX]LRQHGHOORSHUFHQWRQHOFRPPHUFLRDOGHWWDJOLR 1HL GDWL GL RULJLQH DPPLQLVWUDWLYD SURYHQLHQWL GDOOH FRPXQLFD]LRQL REEOLJDWRULH GHOOH LPSUHVH LQ PDWHULD GL DVVXQ]LRQL H FHVVD]LRQL GHL UDSSRUWL GL ODYRUR q HYLGHQWH LO FDOR GHOO·RFFXSD]LRQH 7UD LO GLFHPEUH GHO H GHO OH DVVXQ]LRQL KDQQR UHJLVWUDWR XQD FRQWUD]LRQH GHWHUPLQDQGR XQ VDOGR QHJDWLYR PLODODYRUDWRULGLSHQGHQWL7DOHFDORKDLQWHUHVVDWRVRSUDWWXWWRLOFRPSDUWR PDQLIDWWXULHURPLODRFFXSDWLHTXHOORGHOOHFRVWUX]LRQLPLODPHQWUHQHL VHUYL]LVLVRQRVHJQDWLVDOGLSRVLWLYL $OWUHFRQIHUPHVXOOHGLIILFROWjQHOPHUFDWRGHOODYRURJLXQJRQRGDOOHVHJQDOD]LRQL GLFULVLD]LHQGDOH1HOOHLPSUHVHYHQHWHFKHKDQQRDQQXQFLDWRO·DSHUWXUDGL XQD SURFHGXUD GL VLWXD]LRQH GL FULVL VRQR VWDWH H L ODYRUDWRUL SRWHQ]LDOPHQWH LQWHUHVVDWL GDL VXFFHVVLYL SURYYHGLPHQWL GL &,* VWUDRUGLQDULD HR OLFHQ]LDPHQWL H PHVVDLQPRELOLWjVRQRVWDWLROWUH/HVXFFHVVLYHIRUPDOL]]D]LRQLGHOODFULVLH )RQWHHODE8QLRQFDPHUHGHO9HQHWRVXGDWL,VWDW /·DSHUWXUD GL XQD SURFHGXUD D]LHQGDOH WUDPLWH XQD FRPXQLFD]LRQH SUHYHQWLYD ULYROWD DOOH UDSSUHVHQWDQ]H VLQGDFDOL DOO·,QSV H DOOD &RPPLVVLRQH SURYLQFLDOH GHO ODYRUR FRPSHWHQWH q LO SULPR DWWR YHUVR OD IRUPDOL]]D]LRQH GHOOH VLWXD]LRQL GL FULVL D]LHQGDOL (VVD FRQWLHQH L PRWLYL FKH GHWHUPLQDQR OD VLWXD]LRQH GL GLIILFROWj QRQFKp LO QXPHUR OD FROORFD]LRQH D]LHQGDOH HG L SURILOL SURIHVVLRQDOL GHO SHUVRQDOH FKH SUHVXPLELOPHQWHYHUUjLQYHVWLWRGDOODFULVL Unioncamere del Veneto 21 3. L’economia del Veneto nel 2008 OHFRQFOXVLRQLSURFHGXUDOLKDQQRFRQGRWWRDSHVDQWLULFDGXWHRFFXSD]LRQDOL 6HFRQGRLGDWLGLIRQWH,QSVUHODWLYLDOOD&DVVD,QWHJUD]LRQH*XDGDJQL&,*QHO LQ 9HQHWR OH RUH DXWRUL]]DWH GL &,* VRQR ULVXOWDWH SDUL D PLOLRQL FRUULVSRQGHQWL DG ROWUH PLOD SRVWL GL ODYRUR (VVH KDQQR UHJLVWUDWR XQ IRUWH DXPHQWR ULVSHWWR DOO·DQQR SUHFHGHQWH LQWHUHVVDQGR QRQ VROR OD &,* RUGLQDULDPDDQFKHTXHOODVWUDRUGLQDULD/HRUHDXWRUL]]DWH GL&,*VWUDRUGLQDULDVRQRULVXOWDWHTXDVLPLOLRQLVXSHULRULDTXHOOHUHJLVWUDWHSHU OD &,* RUGLQDULD SDUL D TXDVL PLOLRQL 1HOOH RUH GL &,* FRPSOHVVLYD O·LQFUHPHQWR SL FRQVLVWHQWH ULVSHWWR DO VL q UHJLVWUDWR VRSUDWWXWWR QHOO·LQGXVWULDHQHOO·HGLOL]LD1HOPDQLIDWWXULHURJOLLQFUHPHQWL VRQR GD DVFULYHUVL VLD DOOD &,* RUGLQDULD GRYH OH RUH VRQR SDVVDWH GD D PLOLRQLFKHDOOD&,*VWUDRUGLQDULDGDDPLOLRQLGLRUH ,QSDUWLFRODUHO·LQGXVWULDPHFFDQLFDKDFRQFHQWUDWRQHOFRUVRGHOROWUHODPHWj GHOOHRUHFRPSOHVVLYHHKDVHJQDWRXQIRUWHDXPHQWRULVSHWWRDOO·DQQRSUHFHGHQWH GDDPLOLRQLGLRUH *UDILFR²9HQHWR $QGDPHQWR GHOO·RFFXSD]LRQH QHOO·LQGXVWULDQHO FRPPHUFLRDOGHWWDJOLRHQHL VHUYL]L$QQL ,QGXVWULD &RPPHUFLRDOGHWWDJOLR 6HUYL]L , ,, ,,, ,9 , ,, ,,, ,9 )RQWH8QLRQFDPHUHGHO9HQHWR,QGDJLQH9HQHWR&RQJLXQWXUD 3HU TXDQWR ULJXDUGD JOL LQVHULPHQWL QHOOH OLVWH GL PRELOLWj L OLFHQ]LDPHQWL FROOHWWLYL H[ O QHO FRUVR GHO VRQR VWDWL LQ ULDO]R ULVSHWWR DOO·DQQR SUHFHGHQWH GHOO· SHU FHQWR , OLFHQ]LDPHQWL LQGLYLGXDOL DWWLYDWL GDOOH SLFFROH LPSUHVH H[ O FKH Gj GLULWWR DL EHQHILFL ILVFDOL SHU OH D]LHQGH LQ FDVR GL DVVXQ]LRQH PD QRQ DOO·LQGHQQLWj GL PRELOLWj KDQQR LQYHFH UHJLVWUDWR XQ DXPHQWRGHOSHUFHQWRUDJJLXQJHQGRTXDVLXQLWj /D FDVVD LQWHJUD]LRQH JXDGDJQL q XQD SUHVWD]LRQH FKH LQWHJUD R VRVWLWXLVFH OD UHWULEX]LRQH GHL ODYRUDWRUL VRVSHVL R FKH ODYRUDQR DG RUDULR ULGRWWR SUHVVR D]LHQGH LQ PRPHQWDQHD GLIILFROWj SURGXWWLYD Ë XQR VWUXPHQWRFKHSHUPHWWHDOOHLPSUHVHLQDWWHVDGLULSUHQGHUHODQRUPDOHDWWLYLWjSURGXWWLYDGLHVVHUHVROOHYDWH GDL FRVWL GHOOD PDQRGRSHUD QRQ XWLOL]]DWD H GL HYLWDUH L OLFHQ]LDPHQWL /D FDVVD LQWHJUD]LRQH JXDGDJQL q RUGLQDULD TXDQGR OD FULVL GHOO·D]LHQGD GLSHQGH GD HYHQWL WHPSRUDQHL PDQFDQ]D GL FRPPHVVH HYHQWL PHWHRURORJLFL HFF HG q FHUWD OD ULSUHVD GHOO·DWWLYLWj SURGXWWLYD Ë VWUDRUGLQDULD TXDQGR O·D]LHQGD GHYH IURQWHJJLDUH SURFHVVL GL ULVWUXWWXUD]LRQH FDPELDPHQWR GL WHFQRORJLH ULRUJDQL]]D]LRQH FDPELDPHQWR GHOO·RUJDQL]]D]LRQH D]LHQGDOH ULFRQYHUVLRQH FDPELDPHQWR GHOO·DWWLYLWj R LQ FDVR GL FULVL D]LHQGDOH ,QROWUH O·LQWHUYHQWR VWUDRUGLQDULR SXz HVVHUH ULFKLHVWR DQFKH D VHJXLWR GL IDOOLPHQWR FRQFRUGDWR SUHYHQWLYR OLTXLGD]LRQHFRDWWDDPPLQLVWUDWLYDHDPPLQLVWUD]LRQHVWUDRUGLQDULD9LHQHFRQFHVVDSHUXQSHULRGRSLOXQJR ULVSHWWRDTXHOODRUGLQDULDLQYLUWGHOODJUDYLWjGHJOLHYHQWLFKHODJLXVWLILFDQR 22 Centro studi e ricerche economiche e sociali L’economia del Veneto nel 2008 e previsioni 2009 $JULFROWXUD , ULVXOWDWL GHO VHWWRUH DJULFROR EDVDWL VXL GDWL SURYYLVRUL GLIIXVL GDOO·,1($ GHOLQHDQRXQDQQRIDYRUHYROHSHUJOLDJULFROWRULVHEEHQHVXOLYHOOLLQIHULRULDTXHOOL GHO /H SULPH YDOXWD]LRQL SHU LO KDQQR HYLGHQ]LDWR XQD OLHYH FRQWUD]LRQH GHOOD SURGX]LRQHDJULFRODUHJLRQDOHIDWWRQRQVRUSUHQGHQWHGRSRLOGHFLVRLQFUHPHQWR SURGXWWLYRHFRPPHUFLDOHUHJLVWUDWRORVFRUVRDQQR 1HOODSURGX]LRQHORUGDDJULFRODGHO9HQHWRqGLPLQXLWDGLFLUFDO·SHU FHQWR ULVSHWWR DO DWWHVWDQGRVL VXL PLOLDUGL GL HXUR /D IOHVVLRQH q GD DWWULEXLUVL SULQFLSDOPHQWH DOOD GLPLQX]LRQH LQ WHUPLQL UHDOL GHOOD SURGX]LRQH VWLPDELOHDWWRUQRDOSHUFHQWRVHJQDWDPHQWHGLTXHOODPDLGLFRODHLQSDUWHDOOH FRQGL]LRQLFOLPDWLFKHVIDYRUHYROLSHUDOFXQHFROWXUHOHJQRVH7DE /D SULPD PHWj GHO DYHYD IDWWR VSHUDUH FKH VL SRWHVVHUR ULSHWHUH OH VWHVVH SUHVWD]LRQL PD GXUDQWH O·HVWDWH q ULVXOWDWR DEEDVWDQ]D FKLDUR FKH L PHUFDWL LQWHUQD]LRQDOL DYUHEEHUR ULVSRVWR DOOD QXRYD VSLQWD SURGXWWLYD FRQ XQD IOHVVLRQH JHQHUDOL]]DWD /·DUUHWUDPHQWR KD ULJXDUGDWR WXWWR LO FRPSDUWR GHOOH FROWXUH FHUHDOLFROH H LQGXVWULDOL H TXHOOR YLWLYLQLFROR PHQWUH LO FRPSDUWR RUWRIUXWWLFROR H TXHOOR]RRWHFQLFRVRQRULXVFLWLDPDQWHQHUHOHSRVL]LRQLUDJJLXQWHORVFRUVRDQQR /·DQGDPHQWRGHO9HQHWRULVXOWDLQFRQWURWHQGHQ]DULVSHWWRDOGDWRQD]LRQDOH1HO UHVWR GHO 3DHVH GRSR OD VRVWDQ]LDOH VWDELOLWj UHJLVWUDWD QHO OD SURGX]LRQH DJULFROD GXUDQWH LO KD SUHVHQWDWR XQ LQFUHPHQWR LQ WHUPLQL UHDOL DFFRPSDJQDWR GD XQ DXPHQWR GHL SUH]]L H GHOOD SURGX]LRQH LQ YDORUL FRUUHQWL /H FROWLYD]LRQL HUEDFHH KDQQR HYLGHQ]LDWR XQD IOHVVLRQH DFFHQWXDWD D SUH]]L FRUUHQWLWUDHFKHLQWHUPLQLUHDOLqVWDWDSDULDSHUFHQWRLQYHUWHQGROD OLHYH FUHVFLWD UHJLVWUDWD QHO /·DQGDPHQWR FOLPDWLFR QRQ KD IDYRULWR OH FROWLYD]LRQL GHO PDLV GHO IUXPHQWR H GHOO·RU]R PHQWUH q VWDWR IDYRUHYROH SHU LO ULVR,OPDLVVLFRQIHUPDODFROWXUDSULQFLSDOHGHO9HQHWRFRQROWUHPLODHWWDUL QRQRVWDQWHOHVXSHUILFLFROWLYDWHDEELDQRVXELWRQHOXQQRWHYROHFDOR H OD SURGX]LRQH FRPSOHVVLYD H OD UHVD DEELDQR UHJLVWUDWR ULOHYDQWL GLPLQX]LRQL ULVSHWWRDO DSUH]]LFRUUHQWL DSUH]]LFRVWDQWL &ROWLYD]LRQLHUEDFHH &ROWLYD]LRQLOHJQRVH 3URGRWWLGHJOLDOOHYDPHQWL ¸ ¸ ¸ ¸ ¸ ¸ 3URGX]LRQH/RUGD ¸ ¸ 7DEHOOD²9HQHWR 'LQDPLFDGHOODSURGX]LRQH ORUGDDJULFRODYDUVX DQQRSUHF$QQR )RQWHVWLPH,1($ /H VXSHUILFL FROWLYDWH D IUXPHQWR WHQHUR H GXUR VRQR LQYHFH DXPHQWDWH ,O IUXPHQWRWHQHURFRQXQDVXSHUILFLHGLFLUFDDHWWDULKDPDQWHQXWRL OLYHOOLSURGXWWLYLSXULQSUHVHQ]DGLXQFDORQHOOHUHVH /HFROWXUHLQGXVWULDOLVRQRVWDWHGRPLQDWHGDOO·DQGDPHQWRGHOODEDUEDELHWRODGD ]XFFKHUR FKH KD YLVWR ULGLPHQVLRQDWH VHQVLELOPHQWH OH VXSHUILFL 1RQRVWDQWHLOEXRQDQGDPHQWRGHOOHUHVHSURGXWWLYHOHPLQRULVXSHUILFLFROWLYDWH Unioncamere del Veneto 23 3. L’economia del Veneto nel 2008 VLVRQRWUDGRWWHLQXQDIOHVVLRQHGHOODSURGX]LRQHUDFFROWDVFHVDDFLUFDPLOD WRQQHOODWH/DFROWLYD]LRQHGLWDEDFFRDIURQWHGLXQOLHYHLQFUHPHQWRGHOOH VXSHUILFL FROWLYDWH KD UHDOL]]DWR XQD SURGX]LRQH H UHVH VXSHULRUL GL FLUFD O· SHU FHQWRULVSHWWRDO ,OFRPSDUWRRUWLFRORUHJLVWUDXQDFUHVFLWDGHOOHSURGX]LRQLLQWHUPLQLUHDOLGLFLUFD LOSHUFHQWRDPSOLILFDWDGDOEXRQDQGDPHQWRFRPPHUFLDOH /D SURGX]LRQH IUXWWLFROD FRPSOHVVLYD q ULPDVWD VRVWDQ]LDOPHQWH LQYDULDWD ULVSHWWR DO FRQ DQGDPHQWL SURGXWWLYL RSSRVWL WUD OH YDULH FROWLYD]LRQL ,O FRPSDUWRPHOLFRORJUD]LHDXQOLHYHLQFUHPHQWRGHOOHVXSHUILFLLQSURGX]LRQHKD UHJLVWUDWRXQDPRGHVWDFUHVFLWDGHOODSURGX]LRQHFRPSOHVVLYDH GHOOHUHVH%XRQH OH SURGX]LRQL H OH UHVH SHU LO SHUR QRQRVWDQWH OD OHJJHUD FRQWUD]LRQH GHOOH VXSHUILFL1HJDWLYDO·DQQDWDSHUSHVFKHHQHWWDULQHODFXLSURGX]LRQHqGLPLQXLWD GHOSHUFHQWRULVSHWWRDOVRSUDWWXWWRDFDXVDGHOORVIDYRUHYROHDQGDPHQWR FOLPDWLFRFKHKDLQIOXHQ]DWRQHJDWLYDPHQWHOHUHVH,OEXRQDQGDPHQWRGHLPHUFDWL KD FRQWURELODQFLDWR WDOH DQGDPHQWR IDFHQGR UHJLVWUDUH XQ DXPHQWR GHO IDWWXUDWR /·DQGDPHQWR FOLPDWLFR H ILWRSDWRORJLFR QRQ KD IDYRULWR OD FROWLYD]LRQH GHOOD YLWH FKH D IURQWH GL XQ DVVHVWDPHQWR GHOOH VXSHUILFL LQYHVWLWH KD VXELWR XQ FDOR GHOOD UHVD GHO SHU FHQWR LQ FRQWURWHQGHQ]D ULVSHWWR DOOD SURGX]LRQH QD]LRQDOH &RQVLGHUDWR DQFKH LO FDOR GHL SUH]]L GHOOH XYH H ODVRVWDQ]LDOH VWDELOLWj GHL SUH]]L GHL SULQFLSDOL YLQL '2& GHOOD UHJLRQH LO IDWWXUDWR KD VXELWR XQD FRQWUD]LRQH GHO DWWHVWDQGRVLVXLPLOLRQLGLHXUR ,ULVXOWDWLHFRQRPLFLGHOFRPSDUWR]RRWHFQLFRVRQRVWDWLRPRJHQHLDGHFFH]LRQH GHO FRPSDUWR DYLFROR /H SURGX]LRQL GL FDUQH ERYLQD H VXLQD VRQR WHQGHQ]LDOPHQWHVWDELOLRLQOLHYHFDOR/DVWDELOLWjGHLFRQVXPLGLFDUQHERYLQDKD IDYRULWR OH LPSRUWD]LRQL FKH VRQR DXPHQWDWH GHO SHU FHQWR FRQWHVWXDOPHQWH D XQ FDOR SURGXWWLYR VWLPDWR SDUL DO SHU FHQWR GHL FDSL SUHVHQWL LQ VWDOOD SHU LO YLWHOORDFDUQHELDQFD 1HO FRPSDUWR VXLQLFROR VL q UHJLVWUDWD XQD VWDELOLWj GHL FRQVXPL H GL SURGX]LRQH FKH DFFRPSDJQDWD GD XQ DXPHQWR PHGLR GHOOH TXRWD]LRQL KD GHWHUPLQDWR XQD FUHVFLWD GHO IDWWXUDWR ,O FRPSDUWR DYLFROR KD FRQWLQXDWR LO UHFXSHUR SURGXWWLYR ULVSHWWR DOOH GLVDVWURVH DQQDWH VRQR LQFUHPHQWDWL XOWHULRUPHQWH L FDSL PDFHOODWL VXO PRVWUDQGR TXLQGL EXRQL LQFUHPHQWL FRPSOHVVLYL $ SUH]]L FRUUHQWL OD FUHVFLWD GHO FRPSDUWR DYLFROR KD VHJQDWR YDULD]LRQL GHOO· H GHO SHU FHQWR ULVSHWWLYDPHQWH SROODPH H XRYD PHQWUH LQ WHUPLQLUHDOLLOVRORFRPSDUWRGHOODFDUQHDYLFRODKDUHJLVWUDWRXQLQFUHPHQWRGHO SHUFHQWR 6RWWR LO SURILOR GHOOD VWUXWWXUD SURGXWWLYD LO VHWWRUH DJULFROR KD UHJLVWUDWR XQD QXRYD IOHVVLRQH QHO QXPHUR GL LPSUHVH $ ILQH OR VWRFN GL LPSUHVH VL q DWWHVWDWRDQHOHYLGHQ]LDQGRXQDIOHVVLRQHGHOSHUFHQWR ULVSHWWRDO6HJQDOLQHJDWLYLVXOYHUVDQWHRFFXSD]LRQDOHQHOLOQXPHURGL RFFXSDWL q FDODWR GL FLUFD LO SHU FHQWR VHJQDQGR XQ·LQYHUVLRQH GL WHQGHQ]D ULVSHWWRDOO·DQQRSUHFHGHQWH ,OQXPHURGHJOLRFFXSDWLLQDJULFROWXUDQHO9HQHWRKDUHJLVWUDWRXQFDORSDULDO SHU FHQWR DWWHVWDQGRVL D FLUFD PLOD XQLWj /·LQGDJLQH FRQJLXQWXUDOH GL 8QLRQFDPHUH GHO 9HQHWR FRQIHUPD FKH VRWWR LO SURILOR RFFXSD]LRQDOH O·LQGXVWULD DOLPHQWDUHKDPDQWHQXWRQHOXQDVRVWDQ]LDOHVWDELOLWjDIURQWHGLXQD GLPLQX]LRQHGHOO·LQWHURVHWWRUHPDQLIDWWXULHUR 24 Centro studi e ricerche economiche e sociali L’economia del Veneto nel 2008 e previsioni 2009 Unioncamere del Veneto 25 3. L’economia del Veneto nel 2008 6RWWR LO SURILOR VHWWRULDOH 7DE OH SHUIRUPDQFH EHQFKp QHJDWLYH KDQQR HYLGHQ]LDWR DOFXQH GLIIHUHQ]H OHJDWH SULQFLSDOPHQWH DOOD GHVWLQD]LRQH HFRQRPLFD GHOOD SURGX]LRQH VWHVVD 6RIIURQR PDJJLRUPHQWH L VHWWRUL FKH FRVWLWXLVFRQR O·LQGRWWR GL TXHL FRPSDUWL OD FXL GRPDQGD ILQDOH q LQ JUDYH FULVL FRPH O·DXWRPRELOLVWLFR O·HGLOL]LD H OD PHFFDQLFD , GDWL PRVWUDQR LQIDWWL XQ GHWHULRUDPHQWRQHOTXDUWRWULPHVWUHGHOVHWWRUHGHOOHPDFFKLQHHOHWWULFKHHG HOHWWURQLFKHGHOODJRPPDHSODVWLFDGHOOHJQRHPRELOH H GHOOH PDFFKLQH XWHQVLOL &ULWLFD q OD VLWXD]LRQH DQFKH GHO WHVVLOH DEELJOLDPHQWRFDO]DWXUH FKH KD PHVVR D VHJQR QHO TXDUWR WULPHVWUH XQD GLPLQX]LRQH GHO SHU FHQWR ULVSHWWR DO FRUULVSRQGHQWH SHULRGR GHOOR VFRUVR DQQR ,O VHWWRUH DOLPHQWDUHEHYDQGHWDEDFFR q VWDWR O·XQLFR VHWWRUH FKH KD UHJLVWUDWRXQDVRVWDQ]LDOHWHQXWDGHLSULQFLSDOLLQGLFDWRULSHUWXWWLLWULPHVWUL 1RQRVWDQWHXQTXDGURFRQJLXQWXUDOHFRPSOHVVLYDPHQWHQHJDWLYRDQFKHQHO OH SLFFROH H PHGLH LPSUHVH FRQ DGGHWWL H SL KDQQR PRVWUDWR GLQDPLFKH PLJOLRUL ULVSHWWR DOOH PLFURLPSUHVH DGGHWWL 4XHVW·XOWLPH LQIDWWL KDQQR HYLGHQ]LDWR VHJQDOL GL VRIIHUHQ]D JLj GDOO·LQL]LR GHOO·DQQR QHO SULPR WULPHVWUH OD SURGX]LRQH KD VHJQDWR XQD EUXVFD GHFHOHUD]LRQH GHO SHU FHQWR QHO VHFRQGR GHOSHUFHQWRFKHqDQGDWDSHJJLRUDQGRQHOWHU]RFRQXQSHUFHQWRHQHO TXDUWRFRQXQSHUFHQWR 0HQRPDUFDWHOHSHUIRUPDQFHQHJDWLYHGHOOHSLFFROHHPHGLHLPSUHVH6XEDVH WHQGHQ]LDOHQHLSULPLWUHPHVLO·LQGLFDWRUHqULPDVWRVWDELOHSHUSRLSHJJLRUDUHQHL WULPHVWUL VHJXHQWL QHO SHULRGR DSULOHJLXJQR q GLPLQXLWR GHO SHU FHQWR QHL PHVL HVWLYL GHO SHU FHQWR PHQWUH QHJOL XOWLPL WUH PHVL GHOO·DQQR GHO SHU FHQWR 7DOL ULVXOWDWL WURYDQR FRQIHUPD VLD QHL GDWL GLIIXVL GDOO·,VWDW VXOOD SURGX]LRQH LQGXVWULDOH LWDOLDQD LQ PHGLD G·DQQR VLD QHL GDWL GLIIXVL GD 8QLRQFDPHUH ,WDOLDQDVXOO·DQGDPHQWRFRQJLXQWXUDOHGHOOHSLFFROHHPHGLHLPSUHVHLQGXVWULDOLGHO 1RUG(VWFKHQHOFRUVRGHOO·DQQRKDQQRPRVWUDWRXQWUHQGGHFUHVFHQWHGHLOLYHOOL SURGXWWLYL /D GLQDPLFD QHJDWLYD GHOO·LQGXVWULD YHQHWD q FRQIHUPDWD DQFKH GDOO·LQGLFDWRUH UHODWLYRDOJUDGRGLXWLOL]]RGHJOLLPSLDQWL*UDIFKHQHOFRUVRGHOKD HYLGHQ]LDWR XQ OLYHOOR PHGLR DQQXR GHO SHU FHQWR GHOOD SLHQD FDSDFLWj RSHUDWLYDLQIHULRUHDOODPHGLDUHJLVWUDWDQHOH *UDILFR²9HQHWR $QGDPHQWRGHOODSURGX]LRQH LQGXVWULDOHHGHOJUDGRGL XWLOL]]RGHJOLLPSLDQWLQHOOH LPSUHVHFRQDOPHQR DGGHWWL$QQL JUDGRXWLOL]]RLPSLDQWLVFDODG[ SURGX]LRQHVFDODV[ , ,, ,,, ,9 , ,, ,,, ,9 , ,, ,,, ,9 , ,, ,,, ,9 , ,, ,,, ,9 , ,, ,,, ,9 , ,, ,,, ,9 , ,, ,,, ,9 , ,, ,,, ,9 )RQWH8QLRQFDPHUHGHO9HQHWR,QGDJLQH9HQHWR&RQJLXQWXUD 26 Centro studi e ricerche economiche e sociali L’economia del Veneto nel 2008 e previsioni 2009 ,O IDWWXUDWR KD HYLGHQ]LDWR XQD GLQDPLFD PLJOLRUH ULVSHWWR DOOD SURGX]LRQH VRSUDWWXWWR QHL SULPL QRYH PHVL *UDI 1HL SULPL GXH WULPHVWUL LQIDWWL O·LQGLFDWRUHKDPHVVRDVHJQRGHOOHYDULD]LRQLSRVLWLYHGHOO·RUGLQHGHOO·SHUFHQWR PHQWUH KD PRVWUDWR XQD VRVWDQ]LDOH VWDELOLWj QHO WHU]R 6X TXHVWD WHQGHQ]D VLFXUDPHQWH KD SHVDWR OD WHQVLRQH GHL SUH]]L H XQD FRQIHUPD DUULYD DQFKH GDOO·XOWLPR WULPHVWUH 1HJOL XOWLPL WUH PHVL GHO LQIDWWL LO IDWWXUDWR WRWDOH q GLPLQXLWRGHOSHUFHQWRLQOLQHDFRQODIOHVVLRQHUHJLVWUDWDSHUODSURGX]LRQH DIURQWHGLXQDTXDVLLQYDULDQ]DGHLSUH]]L IDWWXUDWR IDWWXUDWRHVWHUR *UDILFR²9HQHWR $QGDPHQWRGHOIDWWXUDWRHGHO IDWWXUDWRHVWHURQHOOHLPSUHVH FRQDOPHQRDGGHWWL $QQL , ,, ,,, ,9 , ,, ,,, ,9 , ,, ,,, ,9 , ,, ,,, ,9 , ,, ,,, ,9 )RQWH8QLRQFDPHUHGHO9HQHWR,QGDJLQH9HQHWR&RQJLXQWXUD $QFKH LO IDWWXUDWR HVWHUR KD HYLGHQ]LDWR XQ DQGDPHQWR SRVLWLYR QHL SULPL GXH WULPHVWUL GHOO·DQQR IRUQHQGR XQ FRQWULEXWR GHWHUPLQDQWH DOO·HFRQRPLD UHJLRQDOH FRQ FUHVFLWH ULVSHWWLYDPHQWH GHO SHU FHQWR HGHO SHU FHQWR 'DOO·HVWDWH SHUz O·LQGLFDWRUH KD SUHVHQWDWR XQD EUXVFD LQYHUVLRQH GL WHQGHQ]D VHJQDQGR QHL WULPHVWULVXFFHVVLYLGHOOHGLPLQX]LRQLVXSHULRULDOSHUFHQWR $QFKHJOLRUGLQDWLYLKDQQRPRVWUDWRVHJQDOLSRFRFRQIRUWDQWLVRSUDWWXWWRTXHOOL SURYHQLHQWL GDO PHUFDWR LQWHUQR /D GRPDQGD GRPHVWLFD LQIDWWL KD VHJQDWR XQD FRQWUD]LRQHJLjDFFHQWXDWDQHOSULPRWULPHVWUHGHOO·DQQRFKHVLqLQDVSULWD QHL PHVL VXFFHVVLYL LQ SDUWLFRODUH QHJOL XOWLPL WUH PHVL $O FRQWUDULR OD GRPDQGD VXO YHUVDQWH HVWHUR KD UHJLVWUDWR XQ DXPHQWR QHO SULPR WULPHVWUH PHQWUH QHJOL DOWUL WUH WULPHVWUL O·DQGDPHQWR GHOO·LQGLFDWRUH q VWDWR FDUDWWHUL]]DWR GD YDULD]LRQL QHJDWLYH QHO VHFRQGR QHO WHU]R QHOTXDUWR 6HJQDOL SUHRFFXSDQWL VRQR DUULYDWL DQFKH GDOO·LQGLFDWRUH GHOO·RFFXSD]LRQH FRQ YDULD]LRQL QHJDWLYH VHPSUH SL PDUFDWH QHO FRUVR GHOO·DQQR DWWRUQR DO SHU FHQWR /·RFFXSD]LRQH VWUDQLHUD KD LQYHFH HYLGHQ]LDWR XQD WHQGHQ]D SRVLWLYD QHL SULPLWUHWULPHVWULFKHSHUzVLqDQQXOODWDQHJOLXOWLPLWUHPHVLFRQXQDSHUGLWDGL PDQRGRSHUDVWUDQLHUDGHOSHUFHQWR Unioncamere del Veneto 27 3. L’economia del Veneto nel 2008 &RVWUX]LRQL , GDWL D FRQVXQWLYR VXOO·DQGDPHQWR GHO PHUFDWR GHOOH FRVWUX]LRQL VHFRQGR OH VWLPHHODERUDWHGDO&UHVPHSHUO·RVVHUYDWRULR&($98QLRQFDPHUHGHO9HQHWRVXO PHUFDWR HGLOL]LR KDQQR HYLGHQ]LDWR SHU LO LO SULPR DQQR GL GHFUHPHQWR LQ WHUPLQL UHDOL FRQ XQ SHU FHQWR ULIHULWR DO YDORUH GHOOD SURGX]LRQH H GL XQ FRQVLVWHQWHSHUFHQWRSHUTXDQWRULJXDUGDJOLLQYHVWLPHQWL,QYDORULFRVWDQWL DOQHWWRGHOO·LQIOD]LRQHVLWUDWWDGLXQDGLPLQX]LRQHPROWRVLJQLILFDWLYDQHOO·RUGLQH GHO SHU FHQWR SHU JOL LQYHVWLPHQWL H GHO SHU FHQWR GHO YDORUH GHOOD SURGX]LRQH,O9HQHWRQHOqHQWUDWRGXQTXHLQSLHQRLQXQDIDVHGLFULVLGHO VHWWRUHHFRPHVSHVVRDFFDGHKDDQWLFLSDWRQHOOHGLQDPLFKHLOWUHQGQD]LRQDOHLO TXDOHKDSUHVHQWDWRYDORULLQFDORPDSLPLWLJDWLULVSHWWRDTXHOOLUHJLRQDOL4XHVWR WUHQG QHJDWLYR q DYYHQXWR FRPXQTXH GRSR XQD IDVH GL OXQJD FUHVFLWD SRVLWLYD QHOODTXDOHLOVHWWRUHDYHYDDYXWRPRGRGLFUHVFHUHHFRQVROLGDUHODVXDSRVL]LRQH GLYHURHSURSULRPRWRUHGHOO·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·DIIDUL PHQWUHLOULQQRYRKDFRVWLWXLWRLOSHUFHQWRGHOPHUFDWR ,OSULPRVHJPHQWR SURGXWWLYR q ULPDVWR TXHOOR GHOOD QXRYD FRVWUX]LRQH UHVLGHQ]LDOH GHOJLUR G·DIIDUL DQFKH VH LQ IRUWH FDOR LQ YDORUL FRUUHQWL ,Q WHQGHQ]D DQWLFRQJLXQWXUDOH LO VHWWRUH GHOOH RSHUH SXEEOLFKH VXO FKH KD UDSSUHVHQWDWR WXWWDYLD LO SHU FHQWR GHO JLUR G·DIIDUL GHO VHWWRUH XQD TXRWD WURSSREDVVDSHUFRQWURELODQFLDUHO·DQGDPHQWRQHJDWLYRGHOPHUFDWR 7DEHOOD²9HQHWR ,QYHVWLPHQWLHYDORUH GHOODSURGX]LRQH PLOLRQLGLHXURLQ YDORULFRUUHQWL $QQL YDU 1829$&26758=,21( GLFXL 1XRYRUHVLGHQ]LDOH 1XRYRQRQUHVLGHQ]LDOHSULYDWR 1XRYRQRQUHVLGHQ]LDOHSXEEOLFR 1XRYRJHQLRFLYLOH 5,11292 GLFXL ULQQRYRUHVLGHQ]LDOH ULQQRYRQRQUHVLGHQ]LDOHSULYDWR ULQQRYRQRQUHVLGHQ]LDOHSXEEOLFR ULQQRYRJHQLRFLYLOH 7RWDOHLQYHVWLPHQWL 0DQXWHQ]LRQHRUGLQDULD 9DORUHGHOODSURGX]LRQH )RQWHHODERUD]LRQHHVWLPH&5(60(SHURVVHUYDWRULR&($98QLRQFDPHUHGHO9HQHWR 28 YDU GLVWU Centro studi e ricerche economiche e sociali L’economia del Veneto nel 2008 e previsioni 2009 ËPROWRVLJQLILFDWLYRRVVHUYDUHFKHLQTXHVWDGLQDPLFDFRQJLXQWXUDOHQHJDWLYDOH LPSUHVHKDQQRFRQWLQXDQRDIDUUHJLVWUDUHXQLQFUHPHQWRGHOQXPHURGLVRJJHWWL DWWLYL LQ SDUWLFRODUH QHO VHWWRUH LQGXVWULDOH ,O VHJQR PHQR GHOOD FULVL VL q ULIOHVVR QHOODFRPSRVL]LRQHGHOVLVWHPDGHOO·RIIHUWDFRQXQSULPRLQWHUHVVDQWHHOHPHQWRGL ULIOHVVLRQHODFULVLFRQVHQWHDLVRJJHWWLSLVWUXWWXUDWLGLHVVHUHSLSURQWLHUHDWWLYL DLFDPELDPHQWLGHOPHUFDWRËLQTXHVWDORJLFDLQIDWWLFKHYDQQROHWWLLGDWLUHODWLYL DOOH LPSUHVH DWWLYH FKH QHO VRQR DXPHQWDWH FRPSOHVVLYDPHQWH GHOO· SHU FHQWRPDFRQXQDGLQDPLFDGLIRUWHFUHVFLWDGHOOHLPSUHVHQRQDUWLJLDQH 0D DOO·LQWHUQR GHL VLQJROL FRPSDUWL FKH HPHUJH OD YHUD QRYLWj OD FULVL SUHPLD OH LPSUHVHVWUXWWXUDWHFRQXQSHUFHQWRGLVRFLHWjGLFDSLWDOLDWWLYHQHOVHWWRUH DUWLJLDQRHXQSHUFHQWRLQTXHOORQRQDUWLJLDQR4XHVWLGDWLSXULQSUHVHQ]D GHOOHPRGLILFKHLQWURGRWWHQHO5HJLVWUR,PSUHVHFRQVHJXHQWLDOO·DSSOLFD]LRQHGHOOD ULIRUPD GHO GLULWWR IDOOLPHQWDUH KDQQR HYLGHQ]LDWR FRPXQTXH XQ WUHQG PROWR LPSRUWDQWHODFULVLqVRSUDWWXWWRXQDFULVLGHOOHSLFFROHLPSUHVHQRQVSHFLDOL]]DWH XQHOHPHQWRLPSRUWDQWHSHUULGHILQLUHOHVWUDWHJLHGLLQWHUYHQWRSHUODULSUHVDGHO PHUFDWRQHOIXWXUR $57,*,$1( )RUPDJLXULGLFD 6RFLHWjGLFDSLWDOH 6RFLHWjGLSHUVRQH ,PSUHVHLQGLYLGXDOL $OWUHIRUPH 7RWDOH 121$57,*,$1( )RUPDJLXULGLFD 6RFLHWjGLFDSLWDOH 6RFLHWjGLSHUVRQH ,PSUHVHLQGLYLGXDOL $OWUHIRUPH 7RWDOH 727$/( 7DEHOOD²9HQHWR ,PSUHVHDWWLYHDUWLJLDQH HQRQDUWLJLDQH GHOOHFRVWUX]LRQL SHUIRUPDJLXULGLFD $QQL )RQWHHODE8QLRQFDPHUHGHO9HQHWRVXGDWL,QIRFDPHUH0RYLPSUHVH 1HOOH$OWUHIRUPHVRQRFRPSUHVHOHFRRSHUDWLYHHLFRQVRU]L , GDWL GHO QRQ VRQR LPPHGLDWDPHQWH FRQIURQWDELOL FRQ TXHOOL GHJOL DQQL SUHFHGHQWL D FDXVD GHOOH PRGLILFKH LQWURGRWWH QHO 5HJLVWUR ,PSUHVH FRQVHJXHQWL DOO·DSSOLFD]LRQH GHOOD ULIRUPD GHO GLULWWR IDOOLPHQWDUH &Lz KD FRPSRUWDWR LO SDVVDJJLR DOOR VWDWR GL DWWLYHGLXQDTXRWDGLLPSUHVHFKHILQRDOHUDQRFRQVLGHUDWHLQIDOOLPHQWRRLQOLTXLGD]LRQH ,Q TXHVWD GLQDPLFD GL UDOOHQWDPHQWR PD DQFKH GL VWUXWWXUD]LRQH GHO VLVWHPD LPSUHQGLWRULDOHLOGDWRFKHYDDQDOL]]DWRFRQPDJJLRUHDWWHQ]LRQHqTXHOORUHODWLYR DOO·RFFXSD]LRQH'RSRODFUHVFLWDGHOSHUFHQWRGHOGHOSHUFHQWR QHOHGHOSHUFHQWRQHOqQHOFKHVLqJLXQWLDOODSXQWDPDVVLPD RFFXSD]LRQDOH FRQ ROWUH PLOD DGGHWWL $ SDUWLUH GDO O·RFFXSD]LRQH KD LQL]LDWR XQD IDVH GLVFHQGHQWH FRQ XQ SHU FHQWR FRPSOHVVLYR GRYXWR TXDVL WRWDOPHQWHDOO·RFFXSD]LRQHLQGLSHQGHQWHHQHOVXOGDWRPHGLRFDOFRODWRVXL SULPLQRYHPHVLODGLPLQX]LRQHqVWDWDGLXQXOWHULRUHSHUFHQWR0DDQFKH QHOYDVHJQDODWRFKHLOGDWRQHJDWLYRqTXDVLWXWWRDFDULFRGHOO·RFFXSD]LRQH LQGLSHQGHQWH 4XHVWD GLQDPLFD DVVRFLDWD DOOD OHWWXUD GHL GDWL SUHFHGHQWL KD HYLGHQ]LDWRFKHLOVHWWRUHJLjQHODYHYDLPERFFDWRODVWUDGDGHOUDOOHQWDPHQWR VWUXWWXUDOHHLOLQTXHVWRWUHQGKDUDSSUHVHQWDWRLOSULPRYHURDQQRLQFXLOD SDURODFULVLSXzHVVHUHHIIHWWLYDPHQWHSURQXQFLDWD9DFRPXQTXHVHJQDODWRFKHLQ TXHVWRTXDGURQHJDWLYRODVWUXWWXUD]LRQHGHOVHWWRUHKDFRQVHQWLWRGLFRQWHQHUHOD GLQDPLFD QHJDWLYD UHODWLYD DOO·RFFXSD]LRQH GLSHQGHQWH XQ IDWWRUH FKHYDYDOXWDWR SRVLWLYDPHQWHQHOO·LQVLHPHGHJOLLQGLFDWRULFRQJLXQWXUDOLGLPHUFDWR Unioncamere del Veneto 29 3. L’economia del Veneto nel 2008 $UWLJLDQDWRHSLFFRODLPSUHVD 1HO LO QXPHUR GHOOH LPSUHVH DUWLJLDQH DWWLYH LQ 9HQHWR KD VXELWR XQD OHJJHUDFRQWUD]LRQHSHUGHQGRFLUFDXQLWjHSDVVDQGRGDROWUHPLODXQLWjD SRFRSLGLPLOD7DEUHJLVWUDQGRXQDGLPLQX]LRQHGHOORSHUFHQWR ULVSHWWR DOOR VWRFN GHO OR VFRUVR DQQR VL HUD LQYHFH UHJLVWUDWR XQ DXPHQWR GHOORSHUFHQWR *UDQGHLPSRUWDQ]DULFRSUHDOO·LQWHUQRGHOVLVWHPDSURGXWWLYRLQ9HQHWRLOVHWWRUH DUWLJLDQRHGHOODSLFFRODLPSUHVDFKHUDSSUHVHQWDFLUFDLOSHUFHQWRGHOOHXQLWj SURGXWWLYHFKHRSHUDQRVXOWHUULWRULRUHJLRQDOHDGGLULWWXUDLOVHHVFOXGLDPR LOVHWWRUHDJULFROR 7DEHOOD²9HQHWR,PSUHVH DUWLJLDQHUHJLVWUDWHHDWWLYHSHU VHWWRUHHIRUPDJLXULGLFD $QQL 5HJLVWUDWH $WWLYLWjHFRQRPLFD $JULFROWXUDFDFFLDHVLOYLFXOWXUD 3HVFDSLVFLFROWXUDHVHUYL]LFRQQHVVL (VWUD]LRQHGLPLQHUDOL $WWLYLWjPDQLIDWWXULHUH 3URGHGLVWULEHQHUJHOHWWUJDVHDFTXD &RVWUX]LRQL &RPPLQJUHGHWWULSDUD]LRQL $OEHUJKLHULVWRUDQWL 7UDVSRUWLPDJD]]LQDJJLRHFRPXQLFD] ,QWHUPHGLD]PRQHWDULDHILQDQ]LDULD $WWLYLPPREQROHJJLRLQIRUPDWULFHUFD ,VWUX]LRQH 6DQLWjHDOWULVHUYL]LVRFLDOL $OWULVHUYL]LSXEEOLFLVRFLDOLHSHUVRQDOL 6HUYGRPHVWLFLSUHVVRIDPLJOLHHFRQY ,PSUHVHQRQFODVVLILFDWH $WWLYH 5HJLVWUDWH YDU $WWLYH YDU « « « « )RUPDJLXULGLFD 6RFLHWjGLFDSLWDOH 6RFLHWjGLSHUVRQH 'LWWHLQGLYLGXDOL $OWUHIRUPH 727$/( )RQWHHODE8QLRQFDPHUHGHO9HQHWRVXGDWL,QIRFDPHUH 1HOFRPHGHOUHVWRqDYYHQXWRQHJOLDQQLSUHFHGHQWLVRQRVWDWHOHVRFLHWjGL FDSLWDOHDVSXQWDUHULVXOWDWLSRVLWLYL'RSRLOERRPUHJLVWUDWRQHOWULHQQLR SHU HIIHWWR GHOOH PRGLILFKH H LQWHJUD]LRQL DOOD OHJJH TXDGUR VXOO·DUWLJLDQDWR H LO VXFFHVVLYR FRQVROLGDPHQWR QHO TXDGULHQQLR QHO O·LQFUHPHQWR GHOOH LPSUHVHDUWLJLDQHDWWLYHqVWDWRGHOSHUFHQWRSRUWDQGRORVWRFNDXQLWj &RQWUD]LRQHFRPHQHOSHUOHVRFLHWjGLSHUVRQHHQRYLWjDVVROXWD SHUOHGLWWHLQGLYLGXDOLLQPHQRULVSHWWRDO 6RWWRLOSURILORVHWWRULDOHOHLPSUHVHDUWLJLDQHGLSURGX]LRQHLOGHOWRWDOH KDQQR HYLGHQ]LDWR XQ FDOR GHOOR SHU FHQWR ULVSHWWR DO VLQWHVL GL XQD XOWHULRUH IOHVVLRQH FRPH QHO H QHO GHO FRPSDUWR PDQLIDWWXULHUR H GHOOD VWD]LRQDULHWj GHOOH LPSUHVH GL FRVWUX]LRQL $QFKH QHO VHWWRUH GHL VHUYL]L OR VWRFN GHOOH LPSUHVH KD UHJLVWUDWR XQD OLHYH FRQWUD]LRQH GDDWWULEXLUHSULQFLSDOPHQWHDLVHWWRULGHOOD´LQWHUPHGLD]LRQHPRQHWDULDH ILQDQ]LDULDµHGHJOLDOEHUJKLHULVWRUDQWL 30 Centro studi e ricerche economiche e sociali L’economia del Veneto nel 2008 e previsioni 2009 /·DQGDPHQWR GHL SULQFLSDOL LQGLFDWRUL FRQJLXQWXUDOL UDSSUHVHQWD XQ LPSRUWDQWH VWUXPHQWR SHU FDSLUH OR VWDWR GL VDOXWH GHO VHWWRUH GHOO·DUWLJLDQDWR H GHOOH SLFFROH LPSUHVH 7DE 6HFRQGR O·LQGDJLQH VHPHVWUDOH GHOOD &RQIDUWLJLDQDWR 9HQHWR LO TXDGURFKHHPHUJHqLQOLQHDFRQO·DQGDPHQWRHFRQRPLFRUHJLRQDOHGHOSHULRGR ,O VL q FKLXVR FRQ XQD ULOHYDQWH GLPLQX]LRQH GHO IDWWXUDWR SDUL DO SHU FHQWR VSHFLDOPHQWH SHU LO PDQLIDWWXULHUR H SHU O·HGLOL]LD ULVSHWWLYDPHQWH H /·DQGDPHQWR GHO YROXPH G·DIIDUL ULIOHWWH QHOOH GLQDPLFKH H QHOOH SURSRU]LRQLO·HYROX]LRQHGHJOLRUGLQLFKHKDQQRVXELWRXQFDORGHOO·SHUFHQWR ULVSHWWR DO 6L VHJQDOD DQFKH XQ IRUWH DXPHQWR GHL SUH]]L LQ WXWWL L VHWWRUL FRQVLGHUDWL 3URGX]LRQH )DWWXUDWR 2UGLQL 0DQLIDWWXULHUR (GLOL]LD 6HUYL]LDOOHLPSUHVH 6HUYL]LDOOHSHUVRQH 7RWDOHVHWWRUL 3UH]]L 2FFXSD]LRQH 3URSHQVLRQH LQYHVWLPHQWR 7DEHOOD²9HQHWR 3ULQFLSDOLLQGLFDWRUL FRQJLXQWXUDOLGHOO·DUWLJLDQDWRH GHOODSLFFRODLPSUHVDYDU VXDQQRSUHF$QQR )RQWH&RQIDUWLJLDQDWR9HQHWR&HQWUR6WXGL6LQWHVL 3HUOHLPSUHVHLQGXVWULDOLPDQLIDWWXULHURHGHGLOL]LDqULOHYDWDODSURGX]LRQHPHQWUHSHULVHUYL]LqULOHYDWDODGRPDQGD / LQGLFDWRUHGHJOLRUGLQLqULOHYDWRVRORSHUOHLPSUHVHPDQ LIDWWXULHUH 6HFRQGRLGDWLSDU]LDOLIRUQLWLGD&RQIDUWLJLDQDWR9HQHWR%V&RQVXOWLQJO·DQDOLVL q IDWWD VXO WRWDOH UHJLRQDOH VHQ]D OD SURYLQFLD GL 3DGRYD LQ ULWDUGR QHOOH HODERUD]LRQL O·RFFXSD]LRQH QHOOH LPSUHVH DUWLJLDQH q ULVXOWDWD LQ IRUWH FDOR 7DE/DGHFUHVFLWDqULVXOWDWDSDULDOSHUFHQWRQHOFRQSXQWH PROWR QHJDWLYH QHOO·HGLOL]LD QHL VHWWRUL PDQLIDWWXULHUL GHOOD FHUDPLFD FKLPLFDHYHWURGHOOHJQRHGHOVLVWHPDPRGD8QLFDQRWD SRVLWLYDODWURYLDPRQHLVHUYL]LQHOVHWWRUHWUDVSRUWL &DWHJRULH $OLPHQWDUL 7HVVLOH$EELJO&DO]DW /HJQR *UDILFD &HUDP&KLPLFD9HWUR 0HFFDQLFD $OWUHPDQLI 7RWDOH0DQLIDWWXULHUR (GLOL]LD ,PSLDQWLVWLFD 7RWDOH&RVWUX]LRQL 5LS$XWRPRWRFLFOL 6HUYSHUVHYDUL 7UDVSRUWL 7RWDOH6HUYL]L 7RWDOH 7DEHOOD²9HQHWR 2FFXSD]LRQHGLSHQGHQWHQHOOH LPSUHVHDUWLJLDQHYDUVX DQQRSUHF$QQL )RQWH&RQIDUWLJLDQDWR9HQHWR%V&RQVXOWLQJ $FDXVDGHOODPDQFDQ]DGHLGDWLGHOODSURYLQFLDGL3DGRYDLYDORULFRQWHQXWLQHOODSUHVHQWHWDEHOOD ULJXDUGDQRVROROHUHVWDQWLSURYLQFHGHO9HQHWR Unioncamere del Veneto 31 3. L’economia del Veneto nel 2008 6HUYL]L 6HFRQGRLGDWLGL9HQHWR&RQJLXQWXUDO·LQGDJLQHGL8QLRQFDPHUHGHO9HQHWRFKHGDO SULPR WULPHVWUH GHO LQFOXGH LO PRQLWRUDJJLR GHOOH LPSUHVH UHJLRQDOL GHO FRPPHUFLRHGHLVHUYL]LQHODQFKHLOWHU]LDULRKDULVHQWLWRGHOSHJJLRUDPHQWR GHOTXDGURFRQJLXQWXUDOHHFRQRPLFR 6H QHO FRPSOHVVR L VHUYL]L KDQQR HYLGHQ]LDWR XQD WHQGHQ]D QHJDWLYD VRSUDWWXWWR QHJOLXOWLPLPHVLGHOO·DQQRGLIIHUHQWLVRQRVWDWHOHGLQDPLFKHWUDLGLYHUVLVHWWRUL,O FRPPHUFLR DO GHWWDJOLR KD VRIIHUWR PDJJLRUPHQWH ULVSHWWR DO FRPPHUFLR DOO·LQJURVVR HYLGHQ]LDQGR XQ LQGHEROLPHQWR GDO VHFRQGR WULPHVWUH $O FRQWUDULR LO FRPPHUFLR DOO·LQJURVVR KD UHJLVWUDWR XQ IRUWH FDOR VROR QHOO·XOWLPR TXDUWRGRSRXQDVRVWDQ]LDOHWHQXWDQHLSULPLQRYHPHVLGHOO·DQQR $QFRUDSLLQGLIILFROWjLOVHWWRUHGHOO·DXWRFKHKDVHJQDWRSHVDQWLFRQWUD]LRQLSHU WXWWR LO 3HU TXDQWR ULJXDUGD JOL DOWUL VHUYL]L VL HYLGHQ]LD LQ WHUPLQL GL LQFUHPHQWR PHGLR DQQXR OD SHUIRUPDQFH QHJDWLYD GHO VHWWRUH WXULVWLFR LO IDWWXUDWR O·RFFXSD]LRQH H GHL WUDVSRUWL LO IDWWXUDWR O·RFFXSD]LRQH*OLDOWULFRPSDUWLKDQQRLQYHFHSUHVHQWDWRXQDQGDPHQWRSRVLWLYR ,Q SDUWLFRODUH L VHUYL]L IRUPDWLYL VDQLWDUL H VRFLDOL SULYDWL KDQQR PRVWUDWR XQD WHQGHQ]D IDYRUHYROH SHU WXWWL L WULPHVWUL GHO FKLXGHQGR O·DQQR FRQ XQ LQFUHPHQWR PHGLR GHO IDWWXUDWR H GHOO·RFFXSD]LRQH ULVSHWWLYDPHQWH GHO H GHO SHU FHQWR $QFKH LO VHWWRUH GHOO·LQIRUPDWLFD H GHOOH WHOHFRPXQLFD]LRQL H GHL VHUYL]L GL ULFHUFD H VYLOXSSR SXEEOLFLWj VWXGL SURIHVVLRQDOL H FRQVXOHQ]D KDQQR UHJLVWUDWR DOOD ILQH GHO XQ ELODQFLR SRVLWLYR VLD SHU LO IDWWXUDWR HQWUDPEH FKHSHUO·RFFXSD]LRQHULVSHWWLYDPHQWH 7DEHOOD²9HQHWR $QGDPHQWRWHQGHQ]LDOHGHO IDWWXUDWRQHOFRPPHUFLRH QHJOLDOWULVHUYL]L $QQR ,WULP )DWWXUDWRYDU ,,WULP ,,,WULP ,9WULP &RPPHUFLRDOGHWWDJOLR &RPPPDQHULSGLDXWRYHLFROLHPRWRFLFOL &RPPHUFLRDOO LQJURVVR $OEHUJKLULVWRUDQWLEDUHVHUYWXULVWLFL 7UDVSRUWLPDJD]]DWWLYLWjSRVWDOLHGLFRUULHUH &RQVLQIRUPDWLFDLQVWHSURJVZKZWHOHFRP 5LFHVYLOSXEEOFROODXGLVWXGLSURIHFRQVXOVRF 6HUYL]LIRUPDWLYLVDQLWDULVPDOWLPHQWRHVRFLDOLSULYDWL $OWULVHUYL]L )RQWH8QLRQFDPHUHGHO9HQHWR,QGDJLQH9HQHWR&RQJLXQWXUD &RPPHUFLR 1HO OH YHQGLWH DO GHWWDJOLR KDQQR UHJLVWUDWR XQ·HYROX]LRQH QHJDWLYD /·LPSHQQDWDGHLSUH]]LGLYHQGLWDHODEDVVDFUHVFLWDGHOUHGGLWRGLVSRQLELOHKDQQR LQIOXHQ]DWR O·DQGDPHQWR GHL FRQVXPL LQWHUQL QHL PHVL FHQWUDOL GHOO·DQQR 1HJOL XOWLPL WUH PHVL LQYHFH OH GHFLVLRQL GL VSHVD VRQR VWDWH FRQGL]LRQDWH GDOO·DFXLUVL GHOODFULVLHFRQRPLFDHGDOODVILGXFLDGHOOHIDPLJOLHFLUFDO·HYROX]LRQHGHOPHUFDWR GHOODYRURVHEEHQHLQSDUWHFRPSHQVDWHGDOULHQWURGHOOHWHQVLRQLLQIOD]LRQLVWLFKH 6HFRQGRLGDWLGL9HQHWR&RQJLXQWXUDQHOLOFRPPHUFLRDOGHWWDJOLRGHO9HQHWR KD UHJLVWUDWR XQ FDOR PHGLR DQQXR GHOOH YHQGLWH DWWRUQR DO SHU FHQWR ,O ELODQFLRQHJDWLYRGHLFRQVXPLqGDDWWULEXLUHSULQFLSDOPHQWHDOODGLQDPLFDQHJDWLYD 32 Centro studi e ricerche economiche e sociali L’economia del Veneto nel 2008 e previsioni 2009 GHLSURGRWWL´QRIRRGµGLPLQXLWLGLROWUHLOSHUFHQWRDIURQWHGLXQDVWDELOLWj SHUTXHOOLDOLPHQWDUL 6RWWR LO SURILOR GLPHQVLRQDOH D VRIIULUH PDJJLRUPHQWH VRQR VWDWH OH SLFFROH VWUXWWXUH ILQR D PT FKH KDQQR HYLGHQ]LDWR XQD FRQWUD]LRQH GHO SHU FHQWR7XWWDYLDDQFKHOHJUDQGLVWUXWWXUHROWUHPTKDQQRFKLXVRO·DQQRFRQ XQDPHGLDDQQXDQHJDWLYD $QFKHJOLDOWULLQGLFDWRULKDQQRSUHVHQWDWRSHUIRUPDQFHQHJDWLYH3UHRFFXSD]LRQL GHVWDQR VRSUDWWXWWR JOL RUGLQDWLYL FKH QHO TXDUWR WULPHVWUH KDQQR VXELWR XQD EUXVFD GHFHOHUD]LRQH ODVFLDQGR SUHYHGHUH SURVSHWWLYH QRQ URVHH SHU LO 3URGRWWLDOLPHQWDUL $OWURWLSRGLSURGRWWL ILQRDPT *UDILFR²9HQHWR $QGDPHQWRGHOOHYHQGLWHDO GHWWDJOLRSHUJUXSSR PHUFHRORJLFRHSHUWLSRORJLD GLVWULEXWLYDYDUVX WULPHVWUHDQQRSUHF $QQL ROWUHPT , ,, ,,, ,9 , ,, ,,, ,9 )RQWH8QLRQFDPHUHGHO9HQHWR,QGDJLQH9HQHWR&RQJLXQWXUD /·DQGDPHQWR GHOO·LQIOD]LRQH PLVXUDWR GDOO·LQGLFH GHL SUH]]L DO FRQVXPR SHU O·LQWHUDFROOHWWLYLWj1,&KDHYLGHQ]LDWRXQDEUXVFDDFFHOHUD]LRQHSHUWXWWRLO FRQ XQ SLFFR QHL PHVL GL OXJOLR H DJRVWR 6ROR QHJOL XOWLPL GXH PHVL GHOO·DQQR O·LQFUHPHQWR GHL SUH]]L VL q DOOHQWDWR ULWRUQDQGR DL YDORUL GHO *UDI 9(1(72 *UDILFR²,WDOLDH9HQHWR ,QGLFHPHQVLOHGHLSUH]]L DOFRQVXPRSHUO·LQWHUD FROOHWWLYLWj YDUWHQG $QQL ,7$/,$ J IPDPJ O D V RQG J IPDPJ O D V RQG J IPDPJ O D V R QG J IPDPJ O D V RQG J IPDPJ O D V RQG J IPDPJ O D V R QG J IPDPJ O D V RQG J IPDPJ O D V RQG J IPDPJ O D V R QG )RQWHHODE8QLRQFDPHUHGHO9HQHWRVXGDWL,VWDW Unioncamere del Veneto 33 3. L’economia del Veneto nel 2008 1HOFRPSOHVVRODYDULD]LRQHPHGLDDQQXDGHLSUH]]LDOFRQVXPRqULVXOWDWDSDULD SHUFHQWRVLDLQ9HQHWRFKHLQ,WDOLDLQDXPHQWRULVSHWWLYDPHQWHGLH SXQWLSHUFHQWXDOLQHOFRQIURQWRFRQLO &RQULIHULPHQWRDLFDSLWROLGLVSHVDOHYRFLFKHKDQQRVRVSLQWRO·LQIOD]LRQHVRQR VWDWLO·DELWD]LRQHO·DFTXDO·HOHWWULFLWjHLFRPEXVWLELOLLWUDVSRUWLH JOL DOLPHQWDUL H OH EHYDQGH DQDOFROLFKH /·XQLFR FRPSDUWR FKH KD FRQWULEXLWR VLJQLILFDWLYDPHQWH DO FRQWHQLPHQWR GHOO·LQIOD]LRQH q TXHOOR GHOOH FRPXQLFD]LRQL DQFKH VH LQ PLVXUD PLQRUH ULVSHWWR DOO·DQQR SUHFHGHQWH 1HO LO PHUFDWR GHOO·DXWR KD VXELWR XQD EUXVFD IOHVVLRQH 6HFRQGR L GDWL IRUQLWL GDOO·8QUDH 8QLRQH QD]LRQDOH UDSSUHVHQWDQWL DXWRYHLFROL HVWHUL JLj QHO SULPRWULPHVWUHOHLPPDWULFROD]LRQLKDQQRLQYHUWLWRODWHQGHQ]DSRVLWLYDGHO UHJLVWUDQGR LQ 9HQHWR XQ FDOR GHO SHU FHQWR ULVSHWWR DOOR VWHVVR SHULRGR GHOO·DQQRSUHFHGHQWH/DFULVLGHOVHWWRUHKDFRPLQFLDWRSRLDPDQLIHVWDUVLVHPSUH SLLQWHQVDPHQWHQHOFRUVRGHOVHFRQGRHGHOWHU]RWULPHVWUHD FDXVDGHLIRUWLULDO]LGHOOHTXRWD]LRQLGHOSHWUROLRFKHKDQQRVSLQWRDGXQPDUFDWR ULQFDUR GHO SUH]]R GHL FRPEXVWLELOL %HQFKp QHOO·XOWLPD SDUWH GHOO·DQQR O·DQGDPHQWRGHLSUH]]LGHOODEHQ]LQDVLDFDPELDWRHJOLLQFHQWLYLVWDWDOLVLDQRVWDWL ULQQRYDWL LO GHWHULRUDPHQWR GHOOD FRQJLXQWXUD PRQGLDOH KD FDXVDWR XQ YHUR H SURSULR FUROOR QHOOD YHQGLWD GL DXWRPRELOL FRQ XQD SHUGLWD QHO TXDUWR WULPHVWUH GHO SHU FHQWR 1HO FRPSOHVVR QHO OH LPPDWULFROD]LRQL KDQQR HYLGHQ]LDWR XQD IOHVVLRQH GHO SHU FHQWR ULVSHWWR DO OHJJHUPHQWH VXSHULRUHDOGDWRQD]LRQDOH7DE/DFDGXWDGHOOHLPPDWULFROD]LRQLKD LQYHVWLWR FRQWHVWXDOPHQWH WXWWH OH SURYLQFH YHQHWH /H FRQWUD]LRQL SL PDUFDWH GHOO·RUGLQH GHO SHU FHQWR VL VRQR UHJLVWUDWH D %HOOXQR H 9HQH]LD PHQWUH OH UHVWDQWL SURYLQFH KDQQR PRVWUDWR GHOOH IOHVVLRQL DWWRUQR DO SHU FHQWR /·DQGDPHQWR QHJDWLYR GHO VHWWRUH q VWDWR ULOHYDWR DQFKH GDOO·LQGDJLQH 9HQHWR&RQJLXQWXUDFKHKDHYLGHQ]LDWRXQDGLPLQX]LRQHPHGLDDQQXDGHOIDWWXUDWR GHOOHYHQGLWHDWWRUQRDOSHUFHQWR 7DEHOOD²9HQHWR ,PPDWULFROD]LRQLGL DXWRYHWWXUHSHUSURYLQFLD $QQL YDU 9HURQD 3DGRYD 7UHYLVR 9LFHQ]D 9HQH]LD 5RYLJR %HOOXQR 9HQHWR ,WDOLD )RQWHHODE815$(VXGDWLGHO0LQLVWHURGHL7UDVSRUWL ,OFRPPHUFLRDOO·LQJURVVRVHFRQGRLGDWL9HQHWR&RQJLXQWXUDKDHYLGHQ]LDWRXQD SHVDQWH SHUGLWD QHOO·XOWLPR WULPHVWUH FRQ XQD FRQWUD]LRQH GHO IDWWXUDWR GHO SHUFHQWR1HLSULPLQRYHPHVLLQYHFHLOVHWWRUHDYHYDUHWWRDOO·XUWRGHOODFULVL HFRQRPLFDFRQDXPHQWLVXEDVHDQQXDGHOSHUFHQWRQHLSULPLGXHWULPHVWULH XQD VWD]LRQDULHWj QHO WHU]R /D EDVH RFFXSD]LRQDOH FKH ULVHQWH VHPSUH FRQ XQ FHUWR ULWDUGR GHOO·DQGDPHQWR QHJDWLYR GHOO·HFRQRPLD KD PRVWUDWR XQD GLQDPLFD SRVLWLYDFRQXQLQFUHPHQWRPHGLRDQQXRFKHVLDJJLUDDWWRUQRDOSHUFHQWR 0HQR IDYRUHYROH q DSSDUVD LQYHFH OD GLQDPLFD GHL SUH]]L FKH KDQQR YLVWR O·LQGLFDWRUHDXPHQWDUHFLUFDGHOSHUFHQWR 34 Centro studi e ricerche economiche e sociali L’economia del Veneto nel 2008 e previsioni 2009 7XULVPR 6HEEHQH DQFRUD SURYYLVRUL L GDWL VXO PRYLPHQWR WXULVWLFR LQ 9HQHWR UDFFROWL GDOOH $37 SURYLQFLDOL HG HODERUDWL GDOOD 'LUH]LRQH 6LVWHPD 6WDWLVWLFR 5HJLRQDOH GHOOD 5HJLRQH 9HQHWR KDQQR HYLGHQ]LDWR QHO XQ DQGDPHQWR OHJJHUPHQWH PHQRIDYRUHYROHULVSHWWRDODQQRFKHVLHUDFKLXVRLQPRGRPROWRSRVLWLYR QHJOLDUULYLHQHOOHSUHVHQ]H 1HO SHULRGR JHQQDLRGLFHPEUH JOL DUULYL VRQR GLPLQXLWL GL ROWUH PLOD XQLWj SDUL D SHU FHQWR DWWHVWDQGRVL D PLOLRQL GL WXULVWL QHO 3L DFFHQWXDWDODFRQWUD]LRQHQHOOHSUHVHQ]HFKHQHOVLVRQRULGRWWHGHOO·SHU FHQWRDWWHVWDQGRVLDPLOLRQLHUDQRPLOLRQLQHO7DE DUULYL SUHVHQ]H DUULYL SUHVHQ]H YDU DUULYL SUHVHQ]H 6WUXWWXUDULFHWWLYD DOEHUJKLHUD H[WUDOEHUJKLHUD &RPSUHQVRULR FLWWDG DUWH ODJR PDUH PRQWDJQD WHUPH 7RWDOH 7DEHOOD²9HQHWR 0RYLPHQWRWXULVWLFRSHU VWUXWWXUDULFHWWLYDH FRPSUHQVRULR $QQL )RQWHHODE8QLRQFDPHUHGHO9HQHWRVXGDWL5HJLRQH9HQHWR6,57 *XDUGDQGRDOODWLSRORJLDGLVWUXWWXUDULFHWWLYDLOqVWDWRXQDQQRSRVLWLYR SHU JOL HVHUFL]L FRPSOHPHQWDUL FDPSHJJL YLOODJJL WXULVWLFL DJULWXULVPL DOORJJL SULYDWLPDSLXWWRVWRQHJDWLYRSHUTXHOOLDOEHUJKLHULVSHFLDOPHQWHSHUOHVWUXWWXUH SL HFRQRPLFKH VWHOOH 1HJOLHVHUFL]LH[WUDOEHUJKLHUL JOL DUULYL VRQR FUHVFLXWL GHO SHU FHQWR H OH SUHVHQ]H GHO SHU FHQWR PHQWUH LQ TXHOOL DOEHUJKLHUL VL q UHJLVWUDWDXQDFRQWUD]LRQHSHUJOLDUULYLHSHUOHSUHVHQ]H 6XO YHUVDQWH GHJOL DUULYL L FRPSUHQVRUL KDQQR HYLGHQ]LDWR VHJQDOL GL PRGHUDWD FUHVFLWD ULVSHWWR DO IDWWD HFFH]LRQH SHU OH FLWWj G·DUWH PHQWUH OH SUHVHQ]H KDQQR HYLGHQ]LDWR TXDOFKH GLIILFROWj VRSUDWWXWWR SHU L FRPSUHQVRUL PRQWDQR H WHUPDOH*UDI 'RSR DQQL GL FUHVFLWD LO WXULVPR ´FXOWXUDOHµ UHJLVWUDWR QHOOH FLWWj G·DUWH KD HYLGHQ]LDWR ULVXOWDWL SUHRFFXSDQWL FRQ GLPLQX]LRQL SDUL DO SHU FHQWR QHJOL DUULYLHSHUFHQWRQHOOHSUHVHQ]H,OFRPSUHQVRULREDOQHDUHKDLQYHFHVHJQDWR XQ EXRQ SHU FHQWR QHJOL DUULYL H SHU FHQWR QHOOH SUHVHQ]H PHQWUH LO WXULVPRODFXDOHKDJXDGDJQDWRXQSHUFHQWRQHJOLDUULYLPDKDSHUVRO·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nioncamere del Veneto 35 3. L’economia del Veneto nel 2008 SUHVHQ]HPHQWUHSHUJOLDUULYLVSLFFDQRSHUGLVRPRJHQHLWj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²$UULYLGL WXULVWLSHUFRPSUHQVRULR PLOLRQL$QQL &LWWjG DUWH¬ %DOQHDUH¬ /DJR¬ 0RQWDJQD 7HUPH¬ )RQWHHODE8QLRQFDPHUHGHO9HQHWRVXGDWL5HJLRQH9HQHWR6,57 *UDILFR²3UHVHQ]HGLWXULVWL SHUFRPSUHQVRULRPLOLRQL $QQL %DOQHDUH¬ &LWWjG DUWH¬ /DJR¬ )RQWHHODE8QLRQFDPHUHGHO9HQHWRVXGDWL5HJLRQH9HQHWR6,57 36 0RQWDJQD 7HUPH¬ Centro studi e ricerche economiche e sociali L’economia del Veneto nel 2008 e previsioni 2009 2VVHUYDQGRODSURYHQLHQ]DGHLWXULVWLQHOLOSHUFHQWRGHOOHSUHVHQ]H VRQRVWDWHLWDOLDQHGLFXLTXDVLODPHWjJDUDQWLWHGDLUHVLGHQWLLQUHJLRQHH FLUFD XQ TXDUWR DVFULYLELOL DL UHVLGHQWL GHOOD /RPEDUGLD H GHO /D]LR /·DXPHQWR GHL WXULVWL UHVLGHQWL ULVSHWWR DJOL DQQL SUHFHGHQWL PRVWUD FKH DQFKH LQ SHULRGL GL UHFHVVLRQH HFRQRPLFD L YHQHWL QRQ ULQXQFLDQR DG DQGDUH LQ YDFDQ]D VFHJOLHQGR PHWH SL DFFHVVLELOL VLD HFRQRPLFDPHQWH FKH JHRJUDILFDPHQWH H FRPXQTXHFRQJDUDQ]LHGLTXDOLWjHGLVHUYL]LHOHYDWL ,O UHVWDQWH SHU FHQWR q VWDWR DVVLFXUDWR GDOOD FRPSRQHQWH VWUDQLHUD GRYH LO SULPR SRVWR SHU QD]LRQDOLWj GL SURYHQLHQ]D GHOOD FOLHQWHOD q FRPH GD VHPSUH RFFXSDWR GDOOD *HUPDQLD 'RSR XQ VWDELOH H XQ PROWR SRVLWLYR QHO L WHGHVFKL KDQQR OHJJHUPHQWH ULGRWWR OD SUHVHQ]D WXULVWLFD LQ 9HQHWRVHJQDQGRXQSHUFHQWRVXO 7UDVSRUWL ,Q OLQHD FRQ JOL DOWUL VHWWRUL GHOO·HFRQRPLDYHQHWD OD FULVL ILQDQ]LDULD VHPEUD DYHU LQWHUHVVDWR DQFKH LO FRPSDUWR GHL WUDVSRUWL VH VL JXDUGD DOO·DQGDPHQWR GHL SULQFLSDOL LQGLFDWRUL , FRPSDUWL GHO WUDVSRUWR UHJLRQDOH LQ SDUWLFRODUH TXHOOR PDULWWLPR H DHUHR KDQQR FRQWUDVWDWR IRUWHPHQWH LO PRPHQWR GLIILFLOH H LQ FHUWL FDVLVRQRULXVFLWLDVSXQWDUHTXDOFKHULVXOWDWRSRVLWLYR 4XHVWR q TXDQWR HPHUJH GDOOH VWDWLVWLFKH VXL IOXVVL GL PHUFL H SDVVHJJHUL PD VSHFLDOPHQWH GDO SURFHVVR GL DGHJXDPHQWR GHOOH LQIUDVWUXWWXUH ORFDOL WDQWR QHFHVVDULHDOO·HFRQRPLDUHJLRQDOH /H LQIUDVWUXWWXUH HVLVWHQWL QHOOD QRVWUD UHJLRQH FRQWLQXDQR D FRVWLWXLUH OD SL HYLGHQWH SHQDOL]]D]LRQH SHU OH LPSUHVH DQFKH VH QHJOL XOWLPL WHPSL FL VRQRVWDWH DFFHOHUD]LRQL VLJQLILFDWLYH VXOOD UHDOL]]D]LRQH GL QXRYH DUWHULH VWUDGDOL , SULPL LPSRUWDQWLULVXOWDWLVLVRQRYLVWLQHLSULPLPHVLGHOFRQO·DSHUWXUDGHOSDVVDQWH GL0HVWUH 1RQRVWDQWH LQQHJDELOL VIRU]L SHUPDQJRQR FRPXQTXH YLQFROL DPELHQWDOL VWUXWWXUDOL H SROLWLFL FKH FRPSRUWDQR LPSHGLPHQWL DOOD PRELOLWj GHOOH SHUVRQH H GHOOH PHUFL YRODQR LQGLVSHQVDELOH SHU XQR VYLOXSSR PDWXUR GHOO·HFRQRPLD VSHFLDOPHQWHLQXQDIDVHFULWLFDFRPHTXHOODDWWXDOH ,QROWUHODUHWHIHUURYLDULDQDWXUDOHDOWHUQDWLYDDOWUDVSRUWRVXJRPPDQRQULHVFH DQFRUDDGLQFUHPHQWDUHLSURSULYROXPLGLWUDIILFRVHEEHQHVLDVWDWRSRWHQ]LDWRH PLJOLRUDWRLOPDWHULDOHURWDELOHSHULOWUDVSRUWRORFDOH /D VSHUDQ]D VWD QHOOD SULYDWL]]D]LRQH GHO VHWWRUH IHUURYLDULR RUPDL SURJHWWDWD GD GLYHUVRWHPSR/·LQJUHVVRVXOPHUFDWRGLLPSUHQGLWRULSULYDWLSRWUHEEHULVYHJOLDUH XQ FRPSDUWR ´DGGRUPHQWDWRµ RUPDL GD WURSSR WHPSR WUDVIRUPDQGR LQ EUHYH WHPSRLOVHWWRUHLQXQ·DOWHUQDWLYDFRQFUHWDDGDOWULPHWRGLGLWUDVSRUWR ,GDWLSURYYLVRULJHQQDLRQRYHPEUHULIHULWLDOODUHWHDXWRVWUDGDOHFKHLQWHUHVVDLO WHUULWRULRYHQHWRKDQQRHYLGHQ]LDWRSHULOXQFDORGHOOHSHUFRUUHQ]H5LVSHWWR DO O·LQGLFDWRUH HVSUHVVR LQ WHUPLQL GL YHLFROLNP q GLPLQXLWR GHOO· SHU FHQWR QHO UHVWR GHO 3DHVH VHQ]D GLIIHUHQ]H VLJQLILFDWLYH QHOOD GLQDPLFD GHOOHGXHFRPSRQHQWLSHULYHLFROLOHJJHULHSHULYHLFROLSHVDQWL Unioncamere del Veneto 37 3. L’economia del Veneto nel 2008 7DEHOOD²9HQHWR 0RYLPHQWLSDVVHJJHULHPHUFL QHJOLDHURSRUWL$QQR 6XOYHUVDQWHDHURSRUWXDOHLGDWLUHODWLYLDO9HQHWRSHULOKDQQRPRVWUDWRXQ DQGDPHQWRQHOFRPSOHVVRQHJDWLYR,WUHDHURSRUWLGLSULPROLYHOORKDQQRLQIDWWL RWWHQXWR IOHVVLRQL LPSRUWDQWL SHU LO PRYLPHQWR SDVVHJJHUL H DQGDPHQWL FRQWUDVWDQWLQHOODPRYLPHQWD]LRQHGHOOHPHUFL7DE $HURSRUWL 9HQH]LD0DUFR3ROR 9HURQD9DOHULR&DWXOOR 7UHYLVR$QWRQLR&DQRYD 727$/( 3DVVHJJHUL YDODVV YDU 0HUFLWRQQ YDODVV YDU )RQWHHODE8QLRQFDPHUHGHO9HQHWRVXGDWL$VVDHURSRUWL 1HOVRQRWUDQVLWDWLGDJOLDHURSRUWLYHQHWLPLOLRQLGLSDVVHJJHULHPLOD WRQQHOODWH GL PHUFL FRQ DQGDPHQWL ULVSHWWLYDPHQWH GHO SHU FHQWR H GHO SHUFHQWRULVSHWWRDO /·$HURSRUWR GL 9HQH]LD TXDUWR VFDOR QD]LRQDOH GRSR )LXPLFLQR 0DOSHQVD H /LQDWH KD FKLXVR LO FRQ PLOLRQL GL SDVVHJJHUL UHJLVWUDQGR XQD FRQWUD]LRQHGHOSHUFHQWRVXEDVHDQQXD,OQXPHURGLYROL KDVILRUDWRTXRWD PLODLQGLPLQX]LRQHGHOSHUFHQWRULVSHWWRDO /HPHUFLPRYLPHQWDWHVRQRVWDWHWRQQHOODWHFRQXQLQFUHPHQWRGHOSHU FHQWREHQHILFLDQGRGHOO·LQJUHVVRGLXQQXRYRRSHUDWRUH,OVHWWRUHFDUJRKDTXLQGL FRQIHUPDWR LO EXRQ DQGDPHQWR GHO H FKH DYHYD FRQVHQWLWR LO VXSHUDPHQWR GHOOD SULPD FULVL FKH VL HUD GHWHUPLQDWD QHL SULPL DQQL GHO QXRYR PLOOHQQLR GRYXWD DOO·LQVWDELOH VLWXD]LRQH SROLWLFRHFRQRPLFD PRQGLDOH 6L WUDWWD TXLQGLGLXQDQQRGL´SDVVDJJLRµGRSRXQELHQQLRHVWUHPDPHQWHSRVLWLYR/DFULVL VLIDVHQWLUHDQFKHVHQRQLQPDQLHUDGHWHUPLQDQWHD9HQH]LDWLHQHLOWXULVPRPD DQFKHLOWUDVSRUWRDHUHRVSHFLDOPHQWHQHLYROLORZFRVWHFKDUWHU 6LWXD]LRQH SL SUHRFFXSDQWH DOO·DHURSRUWR ´9DOHULR &DWXOORµ GL 9HURQD FKH SHUGH XQD SRVL]LRQH QHOOD JUDGXDWRULD QD]LRQDOH SHU SDVVHJJHUL PRYLPHQWDWL WUHGLFHVLPRSRVWRQHO6LJQLILFDWLYHGLPLQX]LRQLVRQRVWDWHUHJLVWUDWHVLDGDO PRYLPHQWR SDVVHJJHUL VLD SHU LO VHFRQGR DQQR FRQVHFXWLYR GDO VHWWRUH GHOOH PHUFL )OHVVLRQH DQFKH QHO PRYLPHQWR GL DHURPRELOL SDVVDWL GDL PLODGHODLPLODGHO ,Q FRQWURWHQGHQ]D O·DHURSRUWR ´$QWRQLR &DQRYDµ GL 7UHYLVR FKH KD RWWHQXWR ULVXOWDWLPROWRGLYHUVLGDJOLDOWULGXHVFDOLUHJLRQDOL,SDVVHJJHULFKHVLVRQRVHUYLWL GHOO·DHURSRUWRWUHYLJLDQRVRQRVWDWLROWUHPLOLRQLLQFUHVFLWDGHOSHUFHQWR ULVSHWWR DO QRQRVWDQWH OD OLHYH FRQWUD]LRQH GHO QXPHUR GHL YROL 1HO VHWWRUHPHUFLO·DHURSRUWRGL7UHYLVRKDPRYLPHQWDWRWRQQHOODWHUHJLVWUDQGR XQDPDUFDWDIOHVVLRQHGHOSHUFHQWRVXO7DOHGLQDPLFDqDVFULYLELOHTXDVL LQWHUDPHQWH DOOR VSRVWDPHQWR GHOOD EDVH ORJLVWLFD GHO YHWWRUH 836 FKH D JLXJQR KDODVFLDWRO·DHURSRUWR´&DQRYDµSHULO´0DUFR3RORµ 38 Centro studi e ricerche economiche e sociali L’economia del Veneto nel 2008 e previsioni 2009 3DVVHJJHUL *UDILFR²9HQHWR 0RYLPHQWLSDVVHJJHULQHJOL DHURSRUWLFRPS $QQR $QWRQLR&DQRYD 9DOHULR&DWXOOR 0DUFR3ROR )RQWHHODE8QLRQFDPHUHGHO9HQHWRVXGDWL$VVDHURSRUWL 0HUFL *UDILFR²9HQHWR 0RYLPHQWLPHUFLQHJOL DHURSRUWLFRPS $QQR $QWRQLR&DQRYD 9DOHULR&DWXOOR 0DUFR3ROR )RQWHHODE8QLRQFDPHUHGHO9HQHWRVXGDWL$VVDHURSRUWL 9DOXWDQGR LQILQH LO WUDIILFR SRUWXDOH QHO 9HQH]LD KD UHJLVWUDWR DQGDPHQWL PROWRFRQWUDVWDQWL/DSULPDSDUWHGHOO·DQQRqVWDWDFRQWUDVVHJQDWDGDXQJHQHUDOH DXPHQWR GHL WUDIILFL ILQR DO PHVH GL RWWREUH TXDQGR VL VRQR DYYHUWLWL L SULPL VHJQDOL GHOOD FULVL HFRQRPLFD PRQGLDOH FKH KD YLVWR OH PRYLPHQWD]LRQL GL PHUFL DWWHVWDUVLVXLOLYHOOLGHO7DE ,PRYLPHQWLFRQWDLQHUKDQQRUHJLVWUDWRDXPHQWLGHLYROXPLGLWUDIILFRDIURQWHGL XQ UDOOHQWDPHQWR GHL VHWWRUL WUDGL]LRQDOL IDWWD HFFH]LRQH SHU LO WUDIILFR FRPPHUFLDOH ,O VHWWRUH FRQWDLQHU q FUHVFLXWR LQ PDQLHUD FRVWDQWH QHO FRUVR GL WXWWR O·DQQR UDJJLXQJHQGR XQ YROXPH WRWDOH GL WUDIILFR GL ROWUH 7(8 4XHVWR UDSSUHVHQWD LO UHFRUG VWRULFR SHU TXHVWR VHWWRUH QHO SRUWR YHQH]LDQR FRQ XQ DXPHQWRGHOSHUFHQWRULVSHWWRDOSDULDFLUFD7(8LQSL $OFRQWUDULRLWUDIILFLGLPHUFL´WUDGL]LRQDOLµKDQQRVXELWRXQIRUWHUDOOHQWDPHQWR FRQ XQD ULGX]LRQH GHO SHU FHQWR $ TXHVWR ULVXOWDWR KDQQR FRQWULEXLWR L FDOL QHOOH PRYLPHQWD]LRQL GL SURGRWWL VLGHUXUJLFL H GL DOWUH ULQIXVH $QGDPHQWR RSSRVWR TXHOOR UHJLVWUDWR GDL WUDIILFL GL SURGRWWL ´VSHFLDOL]]DWLµ TXDOL URWDELOL H Unioncamere del Veneto 39 3. L’economia del Veneto nel 2008 FRQWDLQHU , WUDIILFL GL FRQWDLQHU VRQR DXPHQWDWL GHOO· SHU FHQWR LQ WHUPLQL GL SHVRHGHOSHUFHQWRLQQXPHURGL7(8,OWUDIILFRGLURWDELOLqTXHOORFKHKD HYLGHQ]LDWR LO PDJJLRU LQFUHPHQWR SHUFHQWXDOH QHO FRUVR GHO FRQ XQ DXPHQWRGHOSHUFHQWR 1HO LO VHWWRUH LQGXVWULDOH KD VXELWR XQD IOHVVLRQH GHO SHU FHQWR FRQ DQGDPHQWL GHL WUDIILFL PROWR GLYHUVL GD VHWWRUH D VHWWRUH , WUDIILFL GL ULQIXVH DOLPHQWDULJUDQDJOLHHVHPLROHRVLVLVRQRULGRWWLVHQVLELOPHQWHFRQGLPLQX]LRQL ULVSHWWLYDPHQWH GHO SHU FHQWR H GHO SHU FHQWR , SURGRWWL FKLPLFL KDQQR VXELWRXQDULGX]LRQHFRPSOHVVLYDGHOO·SHUFHQWRSHUHIIHWWRGHOODSURJUHVVLYD ULGX]LRQH GHOOH SURGX]LRQL FKLPLFKH QHJOL VWDELOLPHQWL GHOO·DUHD LQGXVWULDOH 'L VHJQR RSSRVWR OH YDULD]LRQL GL WUDIILFR GHO FDUERQH SHU OD SURGX]LRQH GL HQHUJLD HOHWWULFDLFXLVEDUFKLVRQRDXPHQWDWLGLROWUHLOSHUFHQWRSDULDFLUFD WRQQHOODWH ,O WUDIILFR GHO VHWWRUH SHWUROL KD HYLGHQ]LDWR XQD FRQWUD]LRQH GHO SHU FHQWR ULVSHWWRDOVHJXHQGRDQGDPHQWLGLYHUVLQHOOHVXHGXHFRPSRQHQWLSULQFLSDOL LO SHWUROLR JUH]]R TXDVL HVFOXVLYDPHQWH LQ VEDUFR KD UHJLVWUDWR XQD ULGX]LRQH GL ROWUHLOSHUFHQWRPHQWUHLSURGRWWLUDIILQDWLVRQRFUHVFLXWLGHOO·SHUFHQWR ,O VHWWRUH SDVVHJJHUL KD PDQWHQXWR DQFKH QHO LO SURSULR WUHQG GL FUHVFLWD 2OWUH PLOLRQL GL SDVVHJJHUL KD VFHOWR OD VWD]LRQH PDULWWLPD GL 9HQH]LD SHU L SURSUL YLDJJL WXULVWLFL FRQ XQ DXPHQWR GHO SHU FHQWR ULVSHWWR DO /D FRPSRQHQWHFURFLHULVWLFDUDSSUHVHQWDODTXRWDSLULOHYDQWHGHOWUDIILFRSDVVHJJHUL FRQ XQ SHUFHQWXDOH FKH QHO KD WRFFDWR LO SHU FHQWR GHO WRWDOH PHQWUH OD SDUWHUHVWDQWHqUDSSUHVHQWDWDGDLSDVVHJJHULVXQDYLURSD[HGDTXHOOLVX QDYL YHORFL $ GLIIHUHQ]D GL TXHVWL XOWLPL LO WUDIILFR FURFLHULVWLFR KD SUHVHQWDWRWXWWDYLDXQFRVWDQWHWUHQGGLFUHVFLWDSHUHIIHWWRGHOVHPSUHPDJJLRUH QXPHURGLQDYLFKHKDQQRD9HQH]LDLOORURKRPHSRUWSHUOHFURFLHUHQDYLVXXQ WRWDOHGLQHO 7DEHOOD² 0RYLPHQWD]LRQHPHUFL FRQWHQLWRULHSDVVHJJHULQHO SRUWRGL9HQH]LD $QQL 029,0(1720(5&,WRQQ WRWDOHFRPPHUFLDOH WRWDOHLQGXVWULDOH WRWDOHSHWUROL 727$/(*(1(5$/( 029,0(172&217(1,725, 029,0(1723$66(**(5, 9DU 9DU 1$9,$55,9$7($/&200(5&,$/( GLFXLQDYLSDVVHJJHUL )RQWHHODE8QLRQFDPHUHGHO9HQHWRVXGDWL3RUWRGL9HQH]LD 40 Centro studi e ricerche economiche e sociali 3UHYLVLRQLSHULO *XDUGDQGRLULVXOWDWLGHOHLGDWLFRQJLXQWXUDOLUHODWLYLDLSULPLPHVLGHOO·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·LQL]LRGHOORVFHQDULRPDFURHFRQRPLFRPRQGLDOHVLSUHVHQWDTXLQGLPROWR LQFHUWR H TXDOVLDVL SUHYLVLRQH VXOOD GXUDWD H VXOOD SRUWDWD GHOOD FULVL FKH VWLDPR DWWUDYHUVDQGR DSSDUH TXDQWRPHQR D]]DUGDWD /D FRQWUD]LRQH GHO SURGRWWR PRQGLDOH D ILQH q ULVXOWDWD HVWUHPDPHQWH SURQXQFLDWD FUHDQGR OH SUHPHVVH SHUXQDUHFHVVLRQHFKHVLPDWHULDOL]]HUjQHLSURVVLPLPHVLFRQ LOVXVVHJXLUVLGHOOH GLYHUVH IDVL GHOOD FULVL OD VWUHWWD GHO FUHGLWR FKH ULVFKLD GL EORFFDUH LO VLVWHPD SURGXWWLYRODFDGXWDGHLPHUFDWLLPPRELOLDULFKHJHQHUDXQDIOHVVLRQHQHOYDORUH GHOOH DELWD]LRQL O·HIIHWWR ULFFKH]]D QHJDWLYR VXL FRQVXPL GHOOH IDPLJOLH FKH SRWUHEEHUR ULVHQWLUH DQFKH GHOO·DVSHWWDWLYD GL XQD IXWXUD VWUHWWD ILVFDOH D VHJXLWR GHOO·DWWXDOHLQFUHPHQWRGHOODVSHVDSXEEOLFD *OLLQGLFDWRULFRQJLXQWXUDOLSLUHFHQWLFRQIHUPDQRTXLQGLO·DJJUDYDUVLGHOODFULVLH UDSSUHVHQWDQRLOFRPHXQDQQRGLUHFHVVLRQHSHUO·HFRQRPLDPRQGLDOH,O )RQGR0RQHWDULR,QWHUQD]LRQDOHKDULGRWWRGDODOORSHU FHQWROHVWLPHGL FUHVFLWD GHOO·HFRQRPLD PRQGLDOH QHO PHQWUH SHU LO FRPPHUFLR PRQGLDOH OD UHWWLILFDqVWDWDSLQHWWDGDODOSHUFHQWRXQDYDULD]LRQHFKHSHUODSULPD YROWDGDODVVXPHYDORULGLVHJQRQHJDWLYR7DOHULVXOWDWRqODVLQWHVLGLGXH WHQGHQ]H FRQWUDSSRVWH SHU LO FRPSOHVVR GHOOH HFRQRPLH DYDQ]DWH OD FULVL DSSDUH GHFLVDPHQWH JUDYH FRQ LO SURGRWWR FKH DVVXPH VHJQR QHJDWLYR PHQWUH L 3DHVLHPHUJHQWLSXUFRQGLYLGHQGRO·DUUHWUDPHQWRGHOFLFORVL SRVL]LRQDQROXQJR XQWUHQGGLHVSDQVLRQH 1HO LQIDWWL LO 3LO GHJOL 6WDWL 8QLWL UHJLVWUHUj XQD YDULD]LRQH QHJDWLYD GHO SURGRWWR FRQ XQD IOHVVLRQH FKH VL DWWHVWHUj D SHU FHQWR TXDVL XQ SXQWR LQ PHQR ULVSHWWR DOOD SUHYLVLRQH G·DXWXQQR %UXVFD IUHQDWD DQFKH SHU LO *LDSSRQH FKH FKLXGHUj LO FRQ XQD YDULD]LRQH QHJDWLYD GHO SHU FHQWR HUD *XDUGDQGRDOOHHFRQRPLHHPHUJHQWLLO)PLVWLPDFKHODFUHVFLWDGHO3LOGHOOD&LQD UDJJLXQJHUjTXHVW·DQQRLOSHUFHQWRPHQWUHTXHOORGHOO·,QGLDGRYUHEEHPHWWHUH DVHJQRXQDFUHVFLWDGHOSHUFHQWRHQWUDPEHLQIHULRULULVSHWWRDOOHLQGLFD]LRQL GLRWWREUHULVSHWWLYDPHQWHH $QFKHO·DUHDHXURFRQGLYLGHODIDVHGLFULVLJOREDOHFKHWXWWDYLDVLDJJUDYHUjQHO VRSUDWWXWWRSHUJOLDPSLPDUJLQLGLLQFHUWH]]DFKHWXWWRUDSHVDQRVXOVLVWHPD GHOOHEDQFKHHXURSHH/HSUHYLVLRQLGHO)PLLQGLFDQRLQIDWWLFKHLO3LOVXELUjXQD FRQWUD]LRQHGHOSHUFHQWRULVSHWWRDOOHSLRWWLPLVWLFKHDWWHVHDXWXQQDOL 1HO PRPHQWR LQ FXL DQGLDPR LQ VWDPSD DSSUHQGLDPR FKH LO )0, KD ULYLVWR DO ULEDVVR OH SUHYLVLRQL GL FUHVFLWD GHOO·HFRQRPLD PRQGLDOH VWLPDQGR SHU LO XQD IOHVVLRQH FRPSUHVD WUD H SHU FHQWR Ë OD SULPDYROWDFKHLO3LOPRQGLDOHUHJLVWUDXQDFRQWUD]LRQHGDOODVHFRQGDJXHUUDPRQGLDOHDGRJJL Unioncamere del Veneto 41 4. Previsioni per il 2009 7DEHOOD²7DVVRGL YDULD]LRQHGHO3,/UHDOH SUHYLVLRQLDFRQIURQWR$QQL ,67$7PDU]RD *RYHUQRIHEEUDLRE &RPPLVVLRQH8(JHQQDLRF 5HIIHEEUDLR 3URPHWHLDJHQQDLR &RQILQGXVWULDGLFHPEUH 2&6(QRYHPEUH 8QLRQFDPHUHQRYHPEUH &(5JHQQDLR ,6$(IHEEUDLR )0,JHQQDLR ,67$7RWWREUHG 3URPHWHLDJHQQDLR 8QLRQFDPHUHQRYHPEUH ,WDOLD 9HQHWR )RQWHHODE8QLRQFDPHUHGHO9HQHWRVXIRQWLFLWDWH D&RQWLHFRQRPLFLQD]LRQDOL$QQLPDU]R E1RWD,QIRUPDWLYDDOOHJDWDDO3URJUDPPDGL6WDELOLWjIHEEUDLR F,QWHULP)RUHFDVWDQQRDSROLWLFKHLQYDULDWHJHQQDLR G&RQWLHFRQRPLFLUHJLRQDOL$QQRRWWREUH ,Q OLQHD DQFKH OH QXRYH SUHYLVLRQL GHOOD &RPPLVVLRQH HXURSHD 1HO O·(XUR]RQD UHJLVWUHUj XQD YDULD]LRQH QHJDWLYD GHO SURGRWWR SDUL DOO· SHU FHQWR PHQWUH QHOO·LQWHUD 8QLRQH HXURSHD OD IOHVVLRQH VDUj SDUL D SHU FHQWR /D GLQDPLFDGHLGLYHUVL3DHVLHYLGHQ]LDWXWWDYLDSHUFRUVLGLIIHUHQ]LDWL/D*HUPDQLD SL HVSRVWD DJOL HIIHWWL GHOOD FDGXWD GHJOL LQYHVWLPHQWL PRQGLDOL QHO VXELUj XQDFRQWUD]LRQHGHOSHUFHQWRPHQWUHOD6SDJQDGRYHLOFROODVVRGHOPHUFDWR LPPRELOLDUH ULVXOWD SL PDUFDWR GRYUHEEH UHJLVWUDUH XQ DUUHWUDPHQWR GHO SHU FHQWR0HQRDFFHQWXDWRLOUDOOHQWDPHQWRGHOOD)UDQFLDFKHQHOUHDOL]]HUjXQD YDULD]LRQH SDUL D SHU FHQWR PHQWUH IXRUL GDOO·DUHD HXUR LO 5HJQR 8QLWR GRYUHEEH DFFXVDUH OD FRQWUD]LRQH SL PDUFDWD GHOOH HFRQRPLH DYDQ]DWH SHU FHQWR /H SUHYLVLRQL SHU O·(XURSD TXLQGL QRQ ODVFLDQR VSD]LR DOO·RWWLPLVPR WXWWDYLD OD FULVL HFRQRPLFD SRWUHEEH HVVHUH PHJOLR IURQWHJJLDWD VH ROWUH DOOD SROLWLFD PRQHWDULDIRUWHPHQWHHVSDQVLYDFRQGLYLVDLQDPELWR%FHDQFKHODSROLWLFDILVFDOH YHGHVVHQHLGLYHUVL3DHVLLQWHUYHQWLRPRJHQHLHFRRUGLQDWL ,Q OLQHD FRQ OH SUHYLVLRQL SHU O·HFRQRPLD PRQGLDOH QHO O·HFRQRPLD LWDOLDQD GRYUHEEH FRQGLYLGHUH OD UHFHVVLRQH LQWHUQD]LRQDOH PDQWHQHQGR XQ GLYDULR GL FUHVFLWD VIDYRUHYROH ULVSHWWR DL SDUWQHU HXURSHL 7DE /H VWLPH DYDQ]DWH GD )PL 2FVH H &RPPLVVLRQH 8H VXO ILQLUH GHO DYHYDQR SURVSHWWDWR XQD YDULD]LRQHGHO3,/QD]LRQDOHSHULOOHJJHUPHQWHQHJDWLYDDWWRUQRDOORSHU FHQWR 0D VHFRQGR OH UHFHQWL SUHYLVLRQL GLIIXVH D PHWj IHEEUDLR O·,WDOLD VXELUj XQD IOHVVLRQH GHO SURGRWWR DWWRUQR DO SHU FHQWR 6L WUDWWD GL XQD GUDVWLFD ULGX]LRQH XQ SXQWR SHUFHQWXDOH H PH]]R GHOOH VWLPH GL FUHVFLWD GLIIXVH LQ DXWXQQR LQ OLQHD FRQ TXHOOH GHOO·DUHD HXUR H SLHQDPHQWH FRQGLYLVH GDO *RYHUQR 42 Centro studi e ricerche economiche e sociali L’economia del Veneto nel 2008 e previsioni 2009 FKH DOO·LQL]LR GL IHEEUDLR KD DJJLRUQDWR OH SUHYLVLRQL SHU LO VWLPDQGR XQD FRQWUD]LRQHSDULDSHUFHQWR ,O SURJUHVVLYR SHJJLRUDPHQWR GHOOH FRQGL]LRQL HFRQRPLFKH FRQVHJXHQWL DO GLIIRQGHUVLGHOODFULVLqFRQIHUPDWRGDLPDJJLRULFHQWULGLSUHYLVLRQHQD]LRQDOLFKH KDQQRGLPH]]DWROHVWLPHGLFUHVFLWDGHOO·HFRQRPLDLWDOLDQDSHULO7XWWHOHSL UHFHQWL SUHYLVLRQL RVFLOODQR WUD LO H LO SHU FHQWR XQ GDWR FKH LQFLGH VIDYRUHYROPHQWH VXOO·DQGDPHQWR GHL FRQWL SXEEOLFL SRUWDQGR LO GHILFLW VRSUD LO SHUFHQWRLQUDSSRUWRDO3LO ,QGLFDWRUL 9HQHWR 1RUG(VW ,WDOLD 3URGRWWRLQWHUQRORUGR 6SHVHSHUFRQVXPLGHOOHIDPLJOLH ,QYHVWLPHQWLILVVLORUGL ,PSRUWD]LRQLGLEHQLGDOO HVWHUR (VSRUWD]LRQLGLEHQLYHUVRO HVWHUR 8QLWjGLODYRUR 7DVVRGLGLVRFFXSD]LRQH 7DEHOOD²6FHQDULRGL SUHYLVLRQHDO FRQIURQWR9HQHWR 1RUG(VWH,WDOLD )RQWH3URPHWHLDJHQQDLR 9DULD]LRQLVXYDORULDSUH]]LFRQFDWHQDWLDQQRGLULIHULPHQWRVDOYRGLYHUVDLQGLFD]LRQH $QFKH L SULPL GDWL FRQJLXQWXUDOL UHODWLYL DL SULPL PHVL GHO FRQIHUPDQR O·DJJUDYDUVLGHOODFULVLHFRQRPLFD$JHQQDLRO·LQGLFHGHOODSURGX]LRQHLQGXVWULDOH FRUUHWWR SHU L JLRUQL ODYRUDWLYL KD UHJLVWUDWR XQ FDOR GHO SHU FHQWR ULVSHWWR DOOR VWHVVR PHVH GHO LO SHJJLRUH ULVXOWDWR GDO GRYH KD SHVDWR O·DQGDPHQWR DQQXR GHO VHWWRUH DXWR 1HO PHVH GL JHQQDLR OH HVSRUWD]LRQLLWDOLDQHKDQQRUHJLVWUDWRXQDGLPLQX]LRQHGHOSHUFHQWRULVSHWWR DOORVWHVVRPHVHGHOGDDVFULYHUHPDJJLRUPHQWHDOO·DQGDPHQWRGHJOLVFDPEL YHUVR L SDHVL H[WUD 8H FKH TXHOOL FRPXQLWDUL &RQWLQXD D SHJJLRUDUHLOFOLPDGLILGXFLDGHOVHWWRUHPDQLIDWWXULHURFKHDIHEEUDLRKDWRFFDWR XQ QXRYR PLQLPR LQ OLQHD FRQ TXDQWR DFFDGH QHO UHVWR GHOO·(XUR]RQD 'RSRXQSHULRGRGLFRQWLQXHIOHVVLRQLODILGXFLDGHLFRQVXPDWRULKDPRVWUDWRQHL PHVLGLJHQQDLRHIHEEUDLRXQPRGHVWRUHFXSHURLQTXDVLWXWWHOHDUHHGHO3DHVH GDQGR O·LPSUHVVLRQH FKH OD SHUFH]LRQH GHOOD JUDYLWj GHOOD FULVL QRQ VLD DQFRUD DUULYDWD DOOD SODWHD GHL FRQVXPDWRUL DQFKH SHU LO VRYUDSSRUVL GL GLYHUVL IDWWRUL ULHQWUR GHOO·LQIOD]LRQH DWWHQXD]LRQH GHOOH SUHVVLRQL VXO FRPSDUWR DOLPHQWDUH IOHVVLRQHGHLWDVVLVXLPXWXLDWDVVRYDULDELOH 6WDQGRDOOHLQGLFD]LRQLFRQJLXQWXUDOLGLVSRQLELOLO·HFRQRPLDLWDOLDQDHYLGHQ]LDSHU LO XQR VFHQDULR LQ FXL SUHYDOJRQR FRQ SRFKH HFFH]LRQL L VHJQDOL QHJDWLYL 7DE 1HO FRUVR GHOO·DQQR VL SUHYHGH XQ UDOOHQWDPHQWR GHL FRQVXPL GHOOH IDPLJOLH ULVSHWWR DO DVFULYLELOH VRSUDWWXWWR DOO·HIIHWWR ULFFKH]]D QHJDWLYRH XQD IUHQDWD GHJOL LQYHVWLPHQWL ILVVL ORUGL GD ULFRQGXUUH DOOD VWUHWWDFUHGLWL]LD6XOYHUVDQWHGHOODGRPDQGDHVWHUDQHOOHHVSRUWD]LRQLGL EHQL YHUVR O·HVWHUR GRYUHEEHUR PRVWUDUH XQ DQGDPHQWR QHJDWLYR H SHJJLRUH 1RWDLQIRUPDWLYDFROOHJDWDDOO·DJJLRUQDPHQWRGHO3URJUDPPDGL6WDELOLWjIHEEUDLR Unioncamere del Veneto 43 4. Previsioni per il 2009 ULVSHWWRDOSHUHIIHWWRGHOUDIIUHGGDPHQWRGHOODGRPDQGDGHLSULQFLSDOL SDUWQHU FRPPHUFLDOL H GHO FRPPHUFLR PRQGLDOH 3HU TXDQWR ULJXDUGD LO PHUFDWR GHOODYRURQHOFLVLDWWHQGHXQDVLJQLILFDWLYDGHFHOHUD]LRQHGHOO·RFFXSD]LRQH LQWHUPLQLGLXQLWjGLODYRURDFFRPSDJQDWDGDXQLQFUHPHQWRGHOWDVVRGL GLVRFFXSD]LRQHILQRDOO·SHUFHQWR 0D TXDOL VRQR JOL HIIHWWL GHOOD UHFHVVLRQH VXOOH LPSUHVH H O·HFRQRPLD GHO9HQHWR" /H SUHYLVLRQL SHU LO VHPEUDQR IRUQLUH LQGLFD]LRQL LQ OLQHD FRQ LO UHVWR GHO 3DHVH 6HFRQGR OH VWLPH SL UHFHQWL IHEEUDLR LO 9HQHWR UHJLVWUHUj XQD FRQWUD]LRQHGHO3,/SDULDSHUFHQWRFRPHQHOODPHGLDGHO1RUG(VW1HO LQIDWWLORVFHQDULRGLSUHYLVLRQHWUDFFLDWRGD3URPHWHLDYHGHWXWWHOHUHJLRQL QRUGHVWLQHDSSDLDWHSHUWDVVRGLVYLOXSSRGDYDQWLD/RPEDUGLDH7RVFDQDVXO SHUFHQWRH3LHPRQWHFRQSHUFHQWR *XDUGDQGR DOOH FRPSRQHQWL GHOOD GRPDQGD QHO FRUVR GHO OD VSHVD SHU FRQVXPL GHOOH IDPLJOLH YHQHWH GRYUHEEH ULGXUVL GHOOR SHU FHQWR PHQWUH JOL LQYHVWLPHQWL ILVVL ORUGL YHGUDQQR XQD IOHVVLRQH GHO SHU FHQWR ,Q IUHQDWD DQFKHO·DQGDPHQWRGHOOHHVSRUWD]LRQLSUHYLVWHLQFDORGHOSHUFHQWRPHQWUHOH LPSRUWD]LRQLQRQGRYUHEEHURULGXUVLROWUHLOSHUFHQWR *OL HIIHWWL VXOOD VWUXWWXUD SURGXWWLYD H VXOO·RFFXSD]LRQH SRWUHEEHUR HVVHUH SHVDQWLJLjQHLSULPLGXHPHVLGHOVRQROHLPSUHVHFKHKDQQRVHJQDODWR XQD VLWXD]LRQH GL GLIILFROWj H VRQR L ODYRUDWRUL SRWHQ]LDOPHQWH FRLQYROWL TXDVL LO GRSSLR ULVSHWWR DOOR VWHVVR SHULRGR GHO (QWUR OD ILQH GHOO·DQQR OH XQLWjGLODYRURSRWUHEEHURVXELUHXQDFRQWUD]LRQHGHOSHUFHQWRPHQWUHLOWDVVR GLGLVRFFXSD]LRQHSRWUHEEHULVDOLUHILQRDOSHUFHQWR 3HJJLRUDQRLJLXGL]LGHJOLLPSUHQGLWRULSHULSURVVLPLVHLPHVLFRQSUHYLVLRQLGL GLPLQX]LRQH LQ WXWWL L SULQFLSDOL VHWWRUL GL DWWLYLWj 6HFRQGR O·LQGDJLQH 9HQHWR&RQJLXQWXUD FRQGRWWD GD 8QLRQFDPHUH UHJLRQDOH LO FOLPD GL ILGXFLD GHO VHWWRUH PDQLIDWWXULHUR EDVDWR VXO VDOGR WUD DWWHVH GL LQFUHPHQWR H SUHYLVLRQL GL GHFUHPHQWR SHU OD SURGX]LRQH LQGXVWULDOH q ULVXOWDWR SDUL D SHU FHQWR D IURQWHGHOSHUFHQWRGHOWULPHVWUHSUHFHGHQWH$QFKHSHU TXDQWRULJXDUGDLO FOLPD GLILGXFLDGHOVHWWRUHGHOFRPPHUFLR EDVDWRVXOVDOGRWUD JLXGL]L SRVLWLYL H QHJDWLYL VXOO·DQGDPHQWR GHOOH YHQGLWH DO GHWWDJOLR q ULVXOWDWR SDUL DO SHU FHQWR D IURQWH GHO SHU FHQWR GHO WULPHVWUH SUHFHGHQWH /D ILGXFLD VFHQGH DQFKHQHOVHWWRUHGHLVHUYL]LO·LQGLFHEDVDWRVXOVDOGRWUDJLXGL]LSRVLWLYLHQHJDWLYL VXOO·DQGDPHQWRGHOYROXPHG·DIIDULQHOWULPHVWUHLQHVDPHqULVXOWDWRSDULDO SHUFHQWR 6LWUDWWDGLVWDWLVWLFKHHODERUDWHGD9HQHWR/DYRURVXGDWLGHOOH$PPLQLVWUD]LRQLSURYLQFLDOL3HUPDJJLRUL LQIRUPD]LRQL9HQHWR/DYRUR&ULVLD]LHQGDOL/·LPSDWWRRFFXSD]LRQDOHUHSRUWIHEEUDLR 44 Centro studi e ricerche economiche e sociali )RFXV,PSUHVHHDFFHVVRDOFUHGLWR 8QR GHL SULPL HIIHWWL GHOOD FULVL ILQDQ]LDULD FKH KD FROSLWR O·HFRQRPLD PRQGLDOH QHOOD VHFRQGD PHWj GHO q VWDWR LO SURJUHVVLYR UD]LRQDPHQWR GHO FUHGLWR DOOH LPSUHVH GD SDUWH GHOOH EDQFKH SHU PDQFDQ]D GL OLTXLGLWj 4XHVWR IHQRPHQR VWD DYHQGRLPSRUWDQWLULFDGXWHVXOVLVWHPDSURGXWWLYRLWDOLDQRHQRQVROR$WWUDYHUVR O·LQGDJLQH9HQHWR&RQJLXQWXUDVLqFHUFDWRGLYDOXWDUHO·LPSDWWRGHOUD]LRQDPHQWRVXO VLVWHPDHFRQRPLFRUHJLRQDOH/DULOHYD]LRQHqVWDWDFRQGRWWDQHOPHVHGLJHQQDLR LQVHUHQGRDOFXQHGRPDQGHQHOTXHVWLRQDULRVRPPLQLVWUDWRDGXQFDPSLRQH GL TXDVL LPSUHVH RSHUDQWL QHO VHWWRUH PDQLIDWWXULHUR GHO FRPPHUFLR H GHL VHUYL]L /·RELHWWLYR HUD TXHOOR GL YHULILFDUH OH FRQGL]LRQL GL LQGHELWDPHQWR GHOOH LPSUHVHYHQHWHQHOVHFRQGRVHPHVWUHGHOYDOXWDQGRODVLWXD]LRQHGHOPHUFDWR FUHGLWL]LRVLDLQULIHULPHQWRDOODGRPDQGDFKHDOO·RIIHUWDGLFUHGLWR 0DQLIDWWXULHUR DGGHWWL DGGHWWLHSL GLFXLDGG DGG DGGHSL 1RWHYROH 0RGHUDWD 6RVWDQ]LDOH FRQWUD]LRQH FRQWUD]LRQH LQYDULDQ]D 0RGHUDWR DXPHQWR 1RWHYROH DXPHQWR &RPPHUFLR 6HUYL]L 7DEHOOD²9HQHWR 9DULD]LRQHGHOODGRPDQGD GLFUHGLWRSHUVHWWRUHGL DWWLYLWjHFRQRPLFD /XJOLR'LFHPEUH )RQWH8QLRQFDPHUHGHO9HQHWR,QGDJLQH9HQHWR&RQJLXQWXUD $ OLYHOOR UHJLRQDOH QHO SHULRGR OXJOLRGLFHPEUH OD GRPDQGD GL OLQHH GL FUHGLWRHSUHVWLWLEDQFDULqULPDVWDSUHVVRFKpVWDELOH7UHLPSUHVHPDQLIDWWXULHUHVX TXDWWUR KDQQR LQIDWWL GLFKLDUDWR XQD VRVWDQ]LDOH LQYDULDQ]D 3HUFHQWXDOL PROWR VLPLOLVRQRVWDWHUHJLVWUDWHQHOVHWWRUHGHOFRPPHUFLRHGHLVHUYL]L 7UD FRORUR FKH LQYHFH KDQQR GLFKLDUDWR XQ FDPELDPHQWR GHOOD GRPDQGD q LQWHUHVVDQWH QRWDUH FRPH OD SHUFHQWXDOH GL FKL QH KD UHJLVWUDWR XQ·HVSDQVLRQH q GRSSLD ULVSHWWR D TXDQWL QH KDQQR ULVFRQWUDWR XQD FRQWUD]LRQH LO D IURQWH GHOO·QHOO·LQGXVWULDDIURQWHGHOQHOFRPPHUFLRDIURQWH GHOQHLVHUYL]L 1HO PDQLIDWWXULHUR L VHWWRUL FKH KDQQR UHJLVWUDWR XQD PDJJLRUH YDULD]LRQH GHOOD GRPDQGD GL FUHGLWR VRQR TXHOOL GHOOH PDFFKLQH XWHQVLOL H GHO PDUPR YHWUR FHUDPLFD H DOWUL PLQHUDOL QRQ PHWDOOLIHUL 6HJXRQR LO VHWWRUH GHOOD JRPPD H GHOOD SODVWLFD H LO VHWWRUH UHVLGXDOH 6H LO QXPHUR GHOOH LPSUHVH FKH KDQQR UHJLVWUDWR XQ·HVSDQVLRQH GHOOD GRPDQGD GL FUHGLWR q JHQHUDOPHQWHPDJJLRUHDOQXPHURGLTXHOOHFKHKDQQRRVVHUYDWRXQDFRQWUD]LRQH QHL VHWWRUL GHOOH PDFFKLQH XWHQVLOL H GHO PDUPR YHWUR FHUDPLFD H DOWUL PDWHULDOL QRQPHWDOOLIHULLOUDSSRUWRqDGGLULWWXUDGLD 6RWWRLOSURILORGLPHQVLRQDOHLWDVVLGLVWDELOLWjPDJJLRULVRQRVWDWLUHJLVWUDWLGDOOH LPSUHVH FRQ PHQR GL DGGHWWL H GD TXHOOH FRQ SL GL DGGHWWL 3HU TXDQWR ULJXDUGD L VHUYL]L DL IRUWL OLYHOOL GL VWDELOLWj GHOOD GRPDQGD GL FUHGLWR UHJLVWUDWL GDJOL RSHUDWRUL GHL VHWWRUL GHOO·LQIRUPDWLFD H GHOOH WHOHFRPXQLFD]LRQL GHOODULFHUFDHVYLOXSSRHVWXGLSURIHVVLRQDOLVLFRQWUDSSRQJRQR VHWWRUL GRYH OD VWDELOLWj q GHFLVDPHQWH LQIHULRUH QHO WXULVPR QHL WUDVSRUWL&RPHSHUO·LQGXVWULDPDQLIDWWXULHUDDQFKHTXLODSHUFHQWXDOHGLFKLKD Unioncamere del Veneto 45 5. Focus: Imprese e accesso al credito *UDILFR²9HQHWR 0RWLYLFKHKDQQRLQGRWWR XQDYDULD]LRQH GHOODGRPDQGDGLFUHGLWR /XJOLR'LFHPEUH UDYYLVDWRXQ·HVSDQVLRQHWHQGHDGHVVHUHVXSHULRUHDOODSHUFHQWXDOHGLFKLKDQRWDWR XQD FRQWUD]LRQH 7HQGHQ]H PROWR VLPLOL VRQR VWDWH UHJLVWUDWH QHO VHWWRUH GHO FRPPHUFLR &RQIURQWDQGR OH VHWWH SURYLQFH YHQHWH OD SHUFHQWXDOH GL LPSUHVH PDQLIDWWXULHUH FKHKDULWHQXWRVWDELOHOD GRPDQGDGLFUHGLWRVLSRVL]LRQDLQXQLQWHUYDOORPROWR ULVWUHWWR FRPSUHVR WUD LO SHU FHQWR UHJLVWUDWR QHOOD SURYLQFLD GL 7UHYLVR H LO SHUFHQWRUHJLVWUDWRLQTXHOODGL9HURQD1HOWHU]LDULRO·LQWHUYDOORqLQYHFHSL DPSLR,QSDUWLFRODUHQHLVHUYL]LVLSDVVDGDOSHUFHQWRGL3DGRYDDOSHU FHQWRGL9HURQDPHQWUHQHOFRPPHUFLRGDOSHUFHQWRGL5RYLJRDOO·SHU FHQWRGL9HURQD HVLJHQ]HIRQGLSHUVFRUWHHFDSLWDOHFLUFRODQWH HVLJHQ]HIRQGLSHULQYHVWLPHQWLILVVL HVLJHQ]HIRQGLSHUULVWUXWWXUD]LRQHGHELWR ULFRUVRDOO·DXWRILQDQ]LDPHQWR 0DQLIDWWXULHUR &RPPHUFLR 6HUYL]L )RQWH8QLRQFDPHUHGHO9HQHWR,QGDJLQH9HQHWR&RQJLXQWXUD *XDUGDQGROHFDXVHFKHVWDQQRDOODEDVHGHOODYDULD]LRQHGHOODGRPDQGDGLFUHGLWR XQUXRORSUHSRQGHUDQWHqJLRFDWRGDOODYDULD]LRQHGHOOHHVLJHQ]HGLIRQGLHVFRUWH SHULOFDSLWDOHFLUFRODQWHLQGXVWULDFRPPHUFLRVHUYL]L 3L HWHURJHQHD OD VLWXD]LRQH SHU TXDQWR ULJXDUGD OH FDXVH VHFRQGDULH 1HO PDQLIDWWXULHUR VL SDUOD GL XQD YDULD]LRQH GHOOH HVLJHQ]H GL IRQGL SHU LQYHVWLPHQWL ILVVL QHO FRPPHUFLR VL HYLGHQ]LD XQ PXWDPHQWR GHOOH HVLJHQ]H SHU OD ULVWUXWWXUD]LRQH GHO GHELWR PHQWUH QHL VHUYL]L VL VHJQDOD XQ PDJJLRU ULFRUVRDOO·DXWRILQDQ]LDPHQWR 7DEHOOD²9HQHWR ,PSUHVHFKHKDQQRULOHYDWR XQLQDVSULPHQWRGHOOH FRQGL]LRQLGLLQGHELWDPHQWR /XJOLR'LFHPEUH 0DQLIDWWXULHUR DGGHWWL DGGHWWLHSL GLFXLDGG DGG DGGHSL 6L 1R &RPPHUFLR 6HUYL]L )RQWH8QLRQFDPHUHGHO9HQHWR,QGDJLQH9HQHWR&RQJLXQWXUD 46 Centro studi e ricerche economiche e sociali L’economia del Veneto nel 2008 e previsioni 2009 3HU TXDQWR ULJXDUGD O·RIIHUWD GL FUHGLWR QHO SHULRGR FRQVLGHUDWR XQ·LPSUHVD VX TXDWWURKDULOHYDWRXQLQDVSULPHQWRGHOOHFRQGL]LRQLFRPSOHVVLYHGLLQGHELWDPHQWR DGHVVDULVHUYDWHGDOOHEDQFKHLQGXVWULDFRPPHUFLRVHUYL]L /D GLVDJJUHJD]LRQH VHWWRULDOH QRQ ULOHYD YDULD]LRQL VLJQLILFDWLYH 1HOOH LPSUHVH PDQLIDWWXULHUH OD SHUFHQWXDOH YDULD WUD LO H LO SHU FHQWR ,Q SDUWLFRODUH JOL LPSUHQGLWRUL FKH KDQQR ULVHQWLWR LQ PLVXUD PLQRUH GHOO·LQDVSULPHQWR VRQR VWDWL TXHOOL RSHUDQWL QHO VHWWRUH GHOOH PDFFKLQH HOHWWULFKH HG HOHWWURQLFKH H LQ TXHOORGHOPDUPRYHWURFHUDPLFDHDOWULPLQHUDOLQRQPHWDOOLIHUL $ OLYHOOR GLPHQVLRQDOH O·LQDVSULPHQWR KD LQWHUHVVDWR VRSUDWWXWWR OH LPSUHVH FRQ SL GL GLHFL DGGHWWL PHQWUH VRQR VWDWH PHQR FRLQYROWH OH LPSUHVH FRQ PHQR GL DGGHWWL 7DOH ULVXOWDWR QRQ YD LQWHUSUHWDWR FRPH XQD PLQRU VRIIHUHQ]D GD SDUWH GHOOH PLFURLPSUHVH PD SLXWWRVWR FRPH O·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·LQDVSULPHQWR GHOOH FRQGL]LRQL GL FUHGLWR VL q IDWWR VHQWLUH VRSUDWWXWWR QHOOH SURYLQFHGL3DGRYDFRPPHUFLRVHUYL]L9HURQDFRPPHUFLR VHUYL]LH7UHYLVRFRPPHUFLRVHUYL]L 0DQLIDWWXULHUR &RPPHUFLR 6HUYL]L *UDILFR²9HQHWR 7HPSLGHOO·LQDVSULPHQWR GHOO·RIIHUWDGLFUHGLWRSHU VHWWRUHGLDWWLYLWjHFRQRPLFD /XJOLR'LFHPEUH OXJOLR DJRVWR VHWWHPEUH RWWREUH QRYHPEUH GLFHPEUH )RQWH8QLRQFDPHUHGHO9HQHWR,QGDJLQH9HQHWR&RQJLXQWXUD ,QWHUHVVDQWLRVVHUYD]LRQLVLSRVVRQRIDUHDQFKHSHUTXDQWRULJXDUGDOHWHPSLVWLFKH GHOO·LQDVSULPHQWR 7UD OH LPSUHVH PDQLIDWWXULHUH FKH KDQQR UDYYLVDWR XQ SHJJLRUDPHQWR GHOOH FRQGL]LRQL GL FUHGLWR GHO FDPSLRQHL PHVL SHJJLRUL VRQRVWDWLQRYHPEUHHGLFHPEUH6HSHUROWUHLOSHUFHQWRGHOOHJUDQGLLPSUHVH O·LQDVSULPHQWR VL q IDWWR VHQWLUH VRSUDWWXWWR D QRYHPEUH WUD OH SLFFROH H PHGLD LPSUHVHDGGHWWLOHFRQGL]LRQLVRQRSHJJLRUDWHJUDGXDOPHQWHDSDUWLUHGDO PHVHGLVHWWHPEUHSHUSRLPLJOLRUDUHOHJJHUPHQWHSULPDGHOODILQHGHO 1HLFRPSDUWLDOLPHQWDUHGHOOHPDFFKLQHXWHQVLOLHGHOPDUPRYHWURHFHUDPLFDOD Unioncamere del Veneto 47 5. Focus: Imprese e accesso al credito PRUVDFUHGLWL]LDVLqIDWWDVHQWLUHLQPDQLHUDULOHYDQWHDSDUWLUHGDOPHVHGLRWWREUH $ QRYHPEUH O·LQDVSULPHQWR VL q DOODUJDWR DL VHWWRUL GHOOD PRGD GHO OHJQR DUUHGRHGHOODFDUWDHGHGLWRULDSHUSRLHVWHQGHUVLDQFKHDOVHWWRUHGHOOHPDFFKLQH HOHWWULFKHHGHOHWWURQLFKHHGHOODJRPPDHSODVWLFDQHOFRUVRGHOPHVHGLGLFHPEUH 3HU LO VHWWRUH GHO PHWDOOR H GHL SURGRWWL LQ PHWDOOR LO SHJJLRUDPHQWR GHOOH FRQGL]LRQLFUHGLWL]LHqVWDWRPROWRJUDGXDOHDWWHVWDQGRVLDSHUFHQWXDOLYLFLQHDO SHUFHQWRQHJOLXOWLPLWUHPHVLGHO $QFKHJOLLPSUHQGLWRULLPSHJQDWLQHOVHWWRUHGHLVHUYL]LKDQQRLQGLFDWRQRYHPEUH HGLFHPEUHFRPHLPHVLLQFXLO·LQDVSULPHQWRGHOOHFRQGL]LRQLGL FUHGLWR VL q IDWWR VHQWLUH FRQ PDJJLRU IRU]D /D VWUHWWD KD FROSLWR GDSSULPD LO VHWWRUH GHL VHUYL]L IRUPDWLYL H VDQLWDUL RWWREUH VL q SRL DOODUJDWR DO VHWWRUH WXULVWLFR H D TXHOOR GHOOD ULFHUFD H VYLOXSSR H DJOL VWXGL SURIHVVLRQDOL QRYHPEUH SHUSRLHVWHQGHUVLDLULPDQHQWLVHWWRULGLFHPEUH 0ROWR VLPLOH OD VLWXD]LRQH QHO FRPPHUFLR 6H LO SHJJLRUDPHQWR GHOOH FRQGL]LRQL FUHGLWL]LHWUDJOLHVHUFHQWLDOGHWWDJOLRVLqIDWWRVHQWLUHFRQSDUWLFRODUHIRU]DJLjD SDUWLUHGDRWWREUHLJURVVLVWLKDQQRULVHQWLWRLOSHJJLRUDPHQWRVRSUDWWXWWRQHO PHVHGLGLFHPEUHPHQWUHJOLRSHUDWRULLPSHJQDWLQHOFRPPHUFLRGLDXWRYHLFROLH PRWRFLFOLORKDQQRGHQXQFLDWRQHOPHVHGLQRYHPEUH *XDUGDQGRDOOHFDXVHFKHVWDQQRDOODEDVHGHOODVWUHWWDFUHGLWL]LDVLHYLGHQ]LDXQD GLVFUHSDQ]D WUD L GLYHUVL VHWWRUL FKH FRPSRQJRQR O·HFRQRPLD UHJLRQDOH /·LQDVSULPHQWR GHOOH FRQGL]LRQL GL FUHGLWR SHU LO PDQLIDWWXULHUR VL q HVSOLFLWDWR VRSUDWWXWWRQHOODULFKLHVWDGLPDJJLRULJDUDQ]LHVXSUHVWLWLJLjFRQFHVVLHVX QXRYLILQDQ]LDPHQWL/DULFKLHVWDGLVSUHDGSLHOHYDWLGDSDUWHGHOOHEDQFKH VX SUHVWLWL JLj FRQFHVVL KD LQYHFH DYXWR XQ UXROR SUHSRQGHUDQWH WUD JOL LPSUHQGLWRULGHOVHWWRUHGHOFRPPHUFLRHGHLVHUYL]L ,QROWUH QHO FRPPHUFLR XQ UXROR LPSRUWDQWH q VWDWR JLRFDWR GDOOD ULFKLHVWD GL VSUHDG PDJJLRUL VX QXRYL ILQDQ]LDPHQWL H GDO ULILXWR GL QXRYL ILQDQ]LDPHQWL 1HL VHUYL]L LQYHFH OD VWUHWWD FUHGLWL]LD VL q PDQLIHVWDWD DWWUDYHUVRULFKLHVWHVLDGL ULHQWURDQFKHSDU]LDOHVXLSUHVWLWLJLjFRQFHVVL FKHGLPDJJLRULJDUDQ]LHVXQXRYLILQDQ]LDPHQWL 7DEHOOD²9HQHWR 3UHYLVLRQLDVHLPHVLGHOOLYHOOR GLLQGHELWDPHQWRSHUVHWWRUH GLDWWLYLWj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q PDJJLRUH QHOOH SLFFROH H PHGLH LPSUHVH ULVSHWWR DOOH PHGLH H JUDQGL LPSUHVH /HJJHUPHQWH LQIHULRUH OD VWDELOLWj SUHYLVWD QHL VHWWRUL GHO FRPPHUFLR H GHL VHUYL]L $QFKH LQ TXHVWL VHWWRUL FRPH QHO PDQLIDWWXULHURODSHUFHQWXDOHGLFKLSUHYHGHXQDXPHQWRGHOO·LQGHELWDPHQWRYHUVR OHEDQFKHqFRQVLGHUHYROPHQWHVXSHULRUHDFKLSUHYHGHQHSUHYHGHXQDULGX]LRQH )RQWH8QLRQFDPHUHGHO9HQHWR,QGDJLQH9HQHWR&RQJLXQWXUD 48 Centro studi e ricerche economiche e sociali