INGV - Istituto Nazionale di Geofisica e Vulcanologia - Italy
The Challenge of Climate Science
Antonio Navarra
Centro EuroMediterraneo per i Cambiamenti Climatici
INGV
Raffello, la Scuola di Atene
Aristotele
INGV - Istituto Nazionale di Geofisica e Vulcanologia - Italy
De#"$"%&%'%()*+,
Meteorologica
!"
However,
all the'((
mouths
of the Nile,
with./($,
the single
of $23$4)/"0
that at Canopus,
are obviously
artificial
!"#$%$&,
)*$ µ"+)*,
"- )*$
#/)*exception
)*$ ,/01($
"- )*')
') 5'0"4+,,
'&$ and
not"6%/"+,(7
natural. And'&)/-/3/'(
Egypt was nothing
than what
called #',
Thebes,
as Homer,
shows,
though
'08 0")more
0')+&'(.
908is:174)
0")*/01
µ"&$too,
)*'0
#*')modern
/, 3'(($8
he is in
relation)*"+1*
to such*$
changes.
;*$6$,, ', !"µ$&, )"", ,*"#,,
µ"8$&0
/, /0 &$(')/"0 )" ,+3* 3*'01$,. <
(...)<
(…)
;*/, *'44$0$8 )" )*$ ('08 "- 9&1", '08 =73$0'$ /0 >&$$3$. ?0 )*$ )/µ$ "- )*$ ;&"@'0 #'&, )*$
This happened
to theµ'&,*7
land of Argos
and Mycenae
in Greece.
In the time
of the Trojan
wars the)*$
Argive
9&1/%$
('08 #',
'08 3"+(8
"0(7 ,+44"&)
' ,µ'((
4"4+(')/"0,
#*$&$',
('08land
"was=73$0'$
marshy and
could
only
support
a
small
population,
whereas
the
land
of
Mycenae
was
in
good
condition.
#', /0 1""8 3"08/)/"0. A+) 0"# )*$ "44",/)$ /, )*$ 3',$, -"& )*$ &$',"0 #$ *'%$
But
now
the
opposite
the case, *',
for the
reason3"µ4($)$(7
we have mentioned:
land of #*/($
Mycenae
become
µ$0)/"0$8: )*$ ('08
"- is
=73$0'$
6$3"µ$
8&7 '08the
6'&&$0,
)*$has
9&1/%$
('08
completely
dry
and
barren,
while
the
Argive
land
that
was
formerly
barren
owing
to
the
water
has
now
)*') #', -"&µ$&(7 6'&&$0 "#/01 )" )*$ #')$& *', 0"# 6$3"µ$ -&+/)-+(. ."# )*$ ,'µ$ 4&"3$,,
become
fruitful.
Now
the same
process
that8/,)&/3)
has takenµ+,)
place6$
in ,+44",$8
this small district
must be
to be
)*') *',
)'B$0
4('3$
/0 )*/,
,µ'((
)" 6$ 1"/01
"0 supposed
"%$& #*"($
going on
over whole
countries
and on,3'($.<
a large scale.
3"+0)&/$,
'08
"0 ' ('&1$
(...)<
(…) '08 )*$ #"&(8 /, $)$&0'(, )*') 0$/)*$& )*$
C" /) /, 3($'&, ,/03$ )*$&$ #/(( 6$ 0" $08 )" )/µ$
So it is clear,
since
there
will'(#'7,
be no end6$$0
to time
and the6+)
world
is )*$
eternal,
that #*$03$
neither the
Tanais
nor#',
the Nile
;'0'/,
0"& )*$
./($
*',
-("#/01,
)*')
&$1/"0
)*$7
-("#
"03$
has
always
been flowing,
but that
the region whence
they
flow was
once
dry:
for their
effect may
be fulfilled,
8&7:
-"& )*$/&
$--$3) µ'7
6$ -+(-/(($8,
6+) )/µ$
3'00").
908
)*/,
#/((
6$ $D+'((7
)&+$
"- '((
but
time
cannot.
And
this
will
be
equally
true
of
all
other
rivers.
But
if
rivers
come
into
existence
and
perish
")*$& &/%$&,. A+) /- &/%$&, 3"µ$ /0)" $2/,)$03$ '08 4$&/,* '08 )*$ ,'µ$ 4'&), "- )*$ $'&)*
and
same
parts ofµ"/,),
the earth
always
moist,
the sea
must needs change
correspondingly.
if the
#$&$the
0")
'(#'7,
)*$were
,$' not
µ+,)
0$$8,
3*'01$
3"&&$,4"08/01(7.
908
/- )*$ ,$' /, And
'(#'7,
sea
is always advancing
in one
and receding
in another
it is clear
that)*$
the ,'µ$
same parts
of "the)*$
whole
earth
'8%'03/01
/0 "0$ 4('3$
'08place
&$3$8/01
/0 '0")*$&
/) /, 3($'&
)*')
4'&),
#*"($
are not
always$/)*$&
either sea
land,
but6+)
that )*')
all this
changes
in course of
$'&)* '&$ 0")
'(#'7,
,$'or"&
('08,
'((
)*/, 3*'01$,
/0 time.
3"+&,$ "- )/µ$.<
INGV - Istituto Nazionale di Geofisica e Vulcanologia - Italy
T.S. Eliot
The Waste Land
I. The Burial of the Dead
April is the cruelest month, breeding
Lilacs out of the dead land, mixing
Memory and desire, stirring
Dull roots with spring rain.
Winter kept us warm, covering
Earth in forgetful snow, feeding
A little life with dried tubers.
Summer surprised us, coming over the Starnbergersee
With a shower of rain; we stopped in the colonnade,
we went.
Il Sistema Clima
Atmosfera
Precipitazioni
Evaporazione
Ghiaccio
Marino
BIOSFERA
Fiumi
Umidita’ del Suolo
Oceani
The Climate Machine
Solar
Radiation
Earth
Radiation
INGV - Istituto Nazionale di Geofisica e Vulcanologia - Italy
Carbon dioxide
Valori massimi di anidride carbonica
Afro-Indian Sector:
INGV - Istituto Nazionale di Geofisica e Vulcanologia - Italy
Mid-latitude Regimes
Indian Monsoon
Planetary waves and
Westerlies
Summer
Indian
Monsoon
Sahel Region
InterTropical Convergence Zone
The challenge of climate change
Strongly science-based problem.
A special responsibility for scientists to
provide honest, accurate, sound science
Global scope and complex interactions
INGV - Istituto Nazionale di Geofisica e Vulcanologia - Italy
A scientific consideration of climate (I)
Crucial experiments like the famous experiment of
Michelson e Morley are not possible in climate science
How is it possible a
scientific investigation of
climate ?
A scientific consideration of climate (II)
INGV - Istituto Nazionale di Geofisica e Vulcanologia - Italy
We can male experiments if we represent the climate
system via a set of mathematical relations: the equation
of climate.
The equation of climate are very difficult, but they can
be solved by numerical methods.
We can then treat very complex mathematical equations,
paying the price of a enormous number of elementary
operations.
Le Equazioni di Navier-Stokes
INGV - Istituto Nazionale di Geofisica e Vulcanologia - Italy
The next generation of
numerical models will be like
new, more powerful, telescopes
or particle accelerators and they
will allow us to look further into
the working of the Earth climate
more accurately, extensively and
reliably.
INGV - Istituto Nazionale di Geofisica e Vulcanologia - Italy
The Structure of the CMCC
INGV - Istituto Nazionale di Geofisica e Vulcanologia - Italy
Numerical Methods
Agricultural Impacts:
Forests
Climate Research
Software Development
Numerical
Simulations
Impacts:
Energy and Economy
Agricultural Impacts:
Crops
Impacts:
Mediterranean Sea
Impacts:
The Coastal Zone
Impacts:
Health
LAN
1 Gbit/s
Scalar/Parallel Supercomputer
IBM Sp6 ~ 1000 cpu
NEC Vector/Parallel
Supercomputer
4 SX-8R + 5 SX-9
3,2 TBytes RAM
18 TFlops
110 cpu.
3 TBytes RAM
11,2 TFlops
Storage Area Network
12 Gbit/s aggregated
Archive/Backup
HA Cluster Server
Disk Storage
~ 500 TBytes
Tape Library
1800 Mbytes/sec
3 PBytes
CMCC
Centro EuroMediterraneo
per i Combiamenti
Climatici
IPCC standard resolution (T63)
INGV-IPCC runs T106 resolution
T106 INGV-IPCC run resolution (~ 120Km)
Next INGV-CMCC model resolution (~ 60Km)
THE SCENARIO SIMULATIONS
INGV(CMCC) SXG IPCC Experiments:
1pccto4x [150y]
1pccto2x [150y]
CO2
1771
1870 1900
2000
picntrl
[100y]
20c3m
[130y]
2100
sres a1b [100y]
sres a2
TOT:
[100y]
[730y]
THE SCENARIO SIMULATIONS
global mean surface temperature anomaly
SCENARIO:
A2 – 20C
INGV - Istituto Nazionale di Geofisica e Vulcanologia - Italy
A2(2001-2050) – 20C(1951-2000) JFM
A2(2001-2050) – 20C(1951-2000) JAS
precipitation
A2(2051-2100) – 20C(1951-2000) JFM
A2(2051-2100) – 20C(1951-2000) JAS
mm/day
SCENARIO:
A2 – 20C
INGV - Istituto Nazionale di Geofisica e Vulcanologia - Italy
A2(2001-2050) – 20C(1951-2000) JFM
A2(2001-2050) – 20C(1951-2000) JAS
2m-Temperature
A2(2051-2100) – 20C(1951-2000) JFM
A2(2051-2100) – 20C(1951-2000) JAS
°C
Il modello ad
alta risoluzione
permette anche
di esplorare la
frequenza,
intensita’ e
dislocazione
degli uragani
tropicali.
TCs Number in ingv-sxg 1-2-4xCO2 exp.
pre-ind
ingv-sxg
[30y]
2xCO2
ingv-sxg
[30y]
4xCO2
ingv-sxg
[30y]
CIRCE
Climate Change and Impact ResearCh:
the Mediterranean Environment
INGV - Istituto Nazionale di Geofisica e Vulcanologia - Italy
An FP6 Project of the European Union
Chair: Antonio Navarra and Laurence Tubiana
The project will investigate how global and Mediterranean climates
interact, how the radiative properties of the atmosphere and the
radiative fluxes vary, the interaction between cloudiness and aerosol,
the modifications in the water cycle.
The economic and social consequences of climate change shall be
evaluated by analyzing direct impacts on migration, tourism and
energy markets together with indirect impacts on the economic
system. CIRCE will moreover investigate the consequences on
agriculture, forests and ecosystems, human health and air quality.
The variability of extreme events in the future scenario and their
impacts will be assessed.
The integrated results discussed by the project CIRCE will be
presented in the first Regional Assessment of Climate Change in the
Mediterranean area.
CIRCE Strategy
Impacts
Climate
Dynamics
Policy
Social
Dynamics
Case
Studies
What can we do ?
Mitigation:
remove the causes of climate change,
i.e. emissions
Adaptation:
prepare for the coming climate change
Mitigazione e Adattamento,
Entrambi necessari,
Entrambi limitati
Mucche olandesi, dopo l’adattamento
INGV - Istituto Nazionale di Geofisica e Vulcanologia - Italy
Mitigazione e Adattamento,
Entrambi necessari,
Entrambi limitati
Elements for Post-Kyoto Regime
Effective – Capable of realizing
significant emission reduction
Empowering – Allowing emerging
countries to continue their development
path
Fair – Recognizing the historical
responsibility of mature economies
Shared – A large societal consensus is
needed to implement effectively the
policies
Coalition Building
INGV - Istituto Nazionale di Geofisica e Vulcanologia - Italy
General Social Survey USA (I)
•! 86% - Satisfied of their job
•! 76% - Satisfied of their income
•! 62% - Expect their position to improve
within the next three years
•! 65% - Over all satisfied of their lives
INGV - Istituto Nazionale di Geofisica e Vulcanologia - Italy
General Social Survey USA (II)
•! 25% - Think the country is not “on the right
track”
•! 80% - Think the Congress has accomplished
nothing
•! 60% - Expect next generation will be worst
off
INGV - Istituto Nazionale di Geofisica e Vulcanologia - Italy
”Happiness Gap”
US citizens ( probably typical of other countries) are
happy with their lives, but they feel the threat of outside
forces beyond their control (climate change, terrorism,
credit crisis) and they are doubt of the government
capability to handle them effectively
There is a private-public
happiness gap
INGV - Istituto Nazionale di Geofisica e Vulcanologia - Italy
Policy ?
In this situation the demand on policymakers is to
devise a policy to tackle with determination these large
problems, but without touching the sphere of private
satisfaction of the individual.
Is it possible to define a policy addressing these
demands ?
INGV - Istituto Nazionale di Geofisica e Vulcanologia - Italy
Ottimisti
ma preoccupati