Benvenuto!
UBS Investment Day a Lugano
4 settembre 2013
Investment Day- agenda
12.00 – 12.35
Dr. José Antonio Blanco, Global Investment Solutions
Outlook
12.35 – 13.10
Daniel Hammar, Equity
Equity
13.10 – 13.45
Dr. Daniel Brüllmann, Global Real Estate
Real Estate Market Switzerland – What’s next?
13.45
Conclusion
Outlook
José Antonio Blanco
Regional CIO, EMEA
Evoluzione recente dei mercati
Perfomance sostanzialmente positiva dei mercati azionari dall’inizio d’anno
a fine Luglio 2013
Principali categorie d’investimento
(dal 2011)
Azioni ed obbligazioni
150
Obbligazioni governative (JPM)*
135
130
125
120
115
110
105
100
95
90
85
80
75
8.0%
ESP
6.0%
4.0%
ITA
2.0%
JPN
FRA WORLD
0.0%
GER
-2.0%
UK
-4.0%
-6.0%
CH
USA
EMMA (in
USD)
-8.0%
70
Dec10
31.12.2012 - 31.7.2013
Rendimento totale in moneta locale
145
140
Mar11
Jun11
Sep11
Dec11
Mar12
Jun12
Sep12
Dec12
Mar13
Jun13
SPI
SBI (AAA-BBB)
MSCI World AC ex CH (in CHF)
Global Real Estate (in CHF)
-10.0%
-16%
-8%
0%
8%
16%
24%
Mercati azionari (MSCI)
SWX Immobilienfonds
Dati quotidiani per 6 Aug-13
Fonte: Datastream
*Eccezione CH: SBI Gesamt AAA-BBB
32%
40%
I rischi che al momento ci preoccupano maggiormente
 Crescita
– Siamo finalmente in fase di ripresa economica globale?
 Debito pubblico
– Sarà possibile ridurre il debito in modo significativo senza metter a rischio la crescita?
 inflazione
– Saranno le banche centrali in grado di normalizzare la politica monetaria ed evitare
un’esplosione dell’inflazione?
Crescita: Forte in Svizzera, debole nell’Europa del sud
PIL reale (Indice 1Q05 = 100)
120
Svizzera
115
Germania
110
USA
105
Francia
Spagna
100
Italia
Portogallo
95
90
85
Grecia
Q1
Q3
Q1
Q3
05
06
Germania
Spagna
Q1
Italia
USA
Q3
07
Q1
Q3
08
Portogallo
Grecia
Q1
Q3
Q1
Q3
09
10
Svizzera
Francia
Q1
Q3
11
Q1
Q3
12
Q1
13
Fonte: Reuters EcoWin, UBS CIO Research
“Sentiment” dei consumatori e disoccupazione
Disoccupazione:
Ulteriori miglioramenti negli USA
14
“Sentiment” dei consumatori nell’UME
migliora e lascia i minimi
30
90
80
12
20
70
10
10
60
50
8
0
40
-10
6
30
20
-20
4
10
-30
2
0
Aug-10
0
Q1 2000
Q1 2002 Q1 2004
Switzerland
Q1 2006 Q1 2008 Q1 2010
EU 13
US
Germany
Q1 2012
Aug-11
Aug-12
Swiss consumer conf.
EMU consumer confidence
German consumer confidence
UK consumer confidence
US consumer confidence (RH scale)
Japan
Mensile, 15 Jul-13
Trimestrale, Q2 2013
Fonte: Datastream, UBS Global AM
Crescita ed inflazione attese
Previsioni di consenso per fine luglio, 2013
Crescita PIL (reale)
Inflazione
3.0
2.5
2.5
2.0
2.0
1.5
1.5
1.0
1.0
0.5
0.0
0.5
-0.5
0.0
CH '14
Fonte: Datastream
EZ '14
US '14
UK '14
Jul 13
JP '14
CH '13
EZ '13
US '13
UK '13
Jul 13
Jun 13
Mai 13
Apr 13
Mrz 13
Feb 13
Jan 13
Dez 12
Nov 12
Okt 12
Sep 12
Aug 12
-0.5
Jul 12
Jun 13
Mai 13
Apr 13
Mrz 13
Feb 13
Jan 13
Dez 12
Nov 12
Okt 12
Sep 12
Aug 12
Jul 12
-1.0
JP '13
Debito pubblico a livelli preoccupanti
Debito governativo lordo in % del PIL
225%
200%
175%
150%
Japan
125%
Greece
Italy
100%
US
75%
UK
France
50%
Spain
25%
Germany
Switzerland
0%
2000
2002
2004
2006
2008
2010
2012
Fonte: Reuters EcoWin, IMF, UBS CIO Research (fine 2012)
Unione Monetaria Europea: “Core” e periferia
2
Switzerland
Core
Finland
1
Deficit indicator
Deutschland
Luxembourg
Netherlands
Österreich
Italy
0
Ireland
Belgium
Spain
France
Greece
-1
Portugal
UK
Fonte: Reuters Ecowin, UBS CIO Research (Stand: 2012)
-2
-2
-1
0
Debt level Indicator
1
2
Fonte: Reuters Ecowin, IWF, OECD, UBS WMR. Il Debt Level viene stimato sulla base della media della percentuale del debito standardizzato e il patrimonio netto
estero in % del PIL. Il Deficit Indicator viene stimato sulla base della media della percentuale del debito standardizzato e delle partite correnti in % del PIL
La politica monetaria della BCE è troppo accomodante per la
Germania
Tassi di cambio reali ponderati per il commercio internazionale (media = 100)
130
120
Index
110
100
90
80
70
60
70 72
74
Germania
76
78
80
82
84
86 88
90
92
94
96
98
00
02 04
06
08
10
12
14
Svizzera
Fonte: Reuters EcoWin, UBS CIO Research (as of 01.08.2013)
Inflazione
Inflazione annuale in %
9
8
7
6
5
Percent
4
3
2
1
0
-1
-2
-3
00
01
USA
02
Eurozone
03
04
Japan
05
06
China
07
08
09
10
11
12
13
Schweiz
Fonte: Reuters EcoWin, UBS CIO Research (Stand: 01.08.2013)
Riduzione del debito ed inflazione
Tre modi per ridurre il debito
 Default
(deflazionario)
 Inflazione
 Austerità
(deflazionario)
 Idealmente: Combinazione dei tre metodi ("beautiful deleveraging")
 Ritardi, interazioni complesse, mancanza di esperienza storica
 Rischio importante
– Rischio di deflazione limitato dalla politica monetaria molto accomodante
– Potenziale inflazionario importante sul medio termine
Enormi iniezioni di liquidità – Fino a quando?
Bilanci delle banche centrali in % del PIL (Indice, 01.01.2007 = 100)
450
400
?
350
300
250
200
150
100
50
07
Svizzera
08
09
USA
10
GB
Euro Zona
11
12
13
14
Giappone
Fonte: Reuters EcoWin, UBS CIO Research (Stand: 01.08.2013)
Enormi iniezioni di liquidità – Inflazione?
Una politica monetaria molto accomodante non basta
Forte crescita della massa monetaria
Aumento del consumo
Supply shock
Forte utilizzo del potenziale
Inflazione
Fonte: UBS
Valutazione fondamentale di azioni ed obbligazioni
Deviazioni in % dal “fair value” basato su ValMod; aggregati globali*,
Aggiornato al 1. August 2013
13.0%
Azioni (asse sulla destra)
10.5%
Obbl. governative (asse sulla sinistra)
60%
50%
40%
8.0%
30%
5.5%
20%
3.0%
10%
0%
0.5%
-10%
-2.0%
-20%
-4.5%
-30%
-7.0%
-40%
-9.5%
-50%
-12.0%
-60%
Sep-99 Sep-00 Sep-01 Sep-02 Sep-03 Sep-04 Sep-05 Sep-06 Sep-07 Sep-08 Sep-09 Sep-10 Sep-11 Sep-12 Aug-13
 I nostri modelli indicano una sovraponderazione dei mercati azionari, di ca. il 13.5% e
delle obbligazioni governative di ca. il 9.5%.
* Azioni: MSCI World in moneta locale; Obbligazioni governative: Citigroup World Government Bond Index in moneta locale
Fonte: UBS Global AM
Mercati azionari: La crescita degli utili sembra rallentare
USA
Fonte: IBES; Bloomberg, UBS Global Asset Management
Europe x UK
Emerging Markets
Obbligazioni governative: ‚fair value‘ e rendimenti attuali
Rendimenti di titoli governativi con 10 anni alla scadenza
6
07/08/2013
Fair 07/08/2013
4.8
5
4
4.2
4.1
4.1
3.7
3.5
3.1
3
2.6
3.0
2.7
2.5
2
1.7
1.0
0.8
1
0
US
CAN
AUS
JPN
EUR
UK
CH
Fonte: Datastream, UBS Global AM
Queste previsioni rappresentano le nostre attese attuali ma vari rischi, insicurezze ed altri fattori importanti possono portare a differenze significative tra valori attesi e valori realizzati.
Valutazione fondamentale
Rendimento atteso su 3 anni, rischio di cambio coperto in CHF; aggiornato al
1. Agosto 2013
Obbligazioni
governative
Azioni
25
22.3
3
2
20
1
13.0
15
9.5
10
0.4
0
9.7
-0.4
(1)
5
(2)
-2.1
0
(5)
-1.8
(3)
-2.0
US
(4)
CH
JAP
UK
EWU
-3.5
JAP
UK
CH
Fonte: UBS Global AM
Queste previsioni rappresentano le nostre attese attuali ma vari rischi, insicurezze ed altri fattori importanti possono portare a differenze
significative tra valori attesi e valori realizzati.
US
EWU
Rendimenti necessari
Rendimenti attesi
Correlazione tra azioni ed obbligazioni
Correlazione tra indici “total return”, periodo mobile di 2 anni
0.6
0.4
0.2
Germania
USA
Svizzera
0.0
-0.2
-0.4
-0.6
-0.8
-1.0
1995 1996 1997 1998 1999 2000 2001 2002 2003 2004 2005 2006 2007 2008 2009 2010 2011 2012 2013
Fonte: Datastream, UBS Global AM, dati giornalieri, per 07 Aug-13
Opinioni attuali
Asset Allocation e monete
Attraente
Non attraente
Neutrale
US Large
Azioni
Global ex US
US Small
Japan
Obbligazioni
Emerging
High Yield
Sovereign
IG
Corporates
Emerging
Monete
USD
CAD
MXN
AUD
JPY
EM Asia
SEK
NOK
CHF
EUR
Per 31.7. 2013.
Fonte: UBS Global Asset Management.
NZD
Sommario
 Ripresa dei mercati azionari dallo shock dei tassi di Maggio/Giugno grazie agli interventi
verbali delle banche centrali
Macro
Azioni
Obbli.
 Le speculazioni riguardanti il “tapering” continueranno a creare volatilità nei mercati
 Dati economici sorprendentemente positivi dalla zona Euro suggeriscono che la recessione
si stia avviando verso la fine. Intanto, l’economia Statunitense continua a rafforzarsi,
mentre che le economie emergenti mostrano segni di debolezza (relativa)
 Nonostante le valutazioni non più molto interessanti e partendo dall’ipotesi che
l’economia globale continuerà a crescere in maniera moderata, ci attendiamo che i mercati
azionari producano un rendimento migliore rispetto alle obbligazioni governative o con
rating molto alti.
 Preferiamo l’Europa ed il Giappone agli USA
 Nonostante l’aumento dei tassi, i titoli governativi ci sembrano ancora cari da un punto di
vista fondamentale. Siamo quindi sottoponderati, anche se manteniamo un’esposizione
per controllare il rischio di una ricaduta in recessione. Ai titoli governativi “sicuri”,
preferiamo corporates e le obbligazioni di Italia e Spagna
Le nostre posizioni tattiche più importanti:
Asset
Allocation
 Sottoponderazione in obbligazioni governative con un piccolo sovrappeso in BTP, Bonos e
corporates. Durazione corta
 Piccolo sovrappeso in azioni, gestito in modo dinamico
 Sovraponderazioni in USD e EUR, sottoponderazioni in CHF e JPY
Q&A
Outlook
UBS Investment Day 2013
Equity
Daniel Hammar, Equity Strategist
UBS Global Asset Management
SECTION 1
UBS Global AM Equities: Who are we?
Global AM Equity Group – Experienced Teams
213 equity investment professionals worldwide
Independent Investment Teams – Active Management
Global Equities
US Equities
European Equities
APAC & Emerging
Markets Equities
Growth Investors
Index and “Smart” Beta
Structured Beta &
Indexing
Applied Research Group
Note: Data as at end of June 2013
excludes equity assets which are managed by multi-asset
Source: UBS Global Asset Management
Distinct,
disciplined
investment
Each team
is compensated
processes
and
based
on its performance
styles
success
…manage CHF 181 billion in equities!
SECTION 2
Recommendations from Spring 2013
Performance - UBS Swiss High Dividend
Performance indexed in % (share class P; basis CHF, net of fees)¹
140
130
+ 22.94%
+ 17.80%
120
110
+ 10.76%
100
90
1
80
70
2011
2012
UBS (CH) Equity Fund - Swiss High Dividend P
2013
SPI® (TR)
DJ SWX Select Dividend 20 Index
Fund / Reference Index statistics
in %
Fund (CHF)
SPI® (TR)
Value added
YTD 2013
SI³
16.44%
17.80%
17.61%
22.94%
-1.17%
-5.14%
Dividend Yield
Beta
Standard Deviation²
Swiss High
Dividend
SPI®(TR)
4.31%
2.99%
0.91
1.00
11.70%
12.38%
Source: UBS Global Asset Management, Data as at end of July 2013
Portfolio characteristics are shown net of fees.
¹ These figures refer to the past. Past performance is not a reliable indicator of future results. The performance shown does not take account of any commissions and
costs charged when subscribing to and redeeming units.
²For periods greater than 1 year, the annualized standard deviation is based on monthly logarithmic returns.
³ Inception Date: 06.05.2011
Performance - UBS European Opportunity / Unconstrained
UBS European Opportunity
EUR - Period Ending: 31-Jul-2013
Net of fees
in %
Composite (EUR)
MSCI Europe
Value added²
Ranking³
YTD
1 year
3 years¹
5 years¹
SI¹
13.45
18.38
11.31
8.26
8.66
8.92
17.04
8.41
3.95
5.26
4.53
1.34
2.90
4.31
3.40
1
2
1
1
N/A
¹ Periods greater than 1 year are annualized. Inception Date: 31-May-2004
Rating as of
31-Jul-2013
UBS European Opportunity Unconstrained
EUR - Period Ending: 31-Jul-2013
Net of fees
in %
Composite (EUR)
MSCI Europe
Value added²
Ranking³
YTD
1 year
3 years¹
5 years¹
SI¹
16.24
20.36
15.00
11.29
3.71
9.26
17.05
8.41
3.88
-1.72
6.98
3.32
6.59
7.40
5.43
1
1
N/A
N/A
N/A
Source: UBS Global Asset Management. Portfolio characteristics are shown net of fees. Past performance is not a reliable indicator of future results.
¹ Periods greater than 1 year are annualized. Inception Date: 31-May-2007
² Value added is the arithmetic difference between the composite return and the benchmark return.
³ Lipper Quartile Rank
Rating as of
31-Jul-2013
SECTION 3
Equity Markets
Equity markets remain attractive
 Positive global growth, Europe has stabilised
but continues to lag behind the US
 Global monetary policy remains
accommodative, despite indications of
gradual tapering by the Fed
 Earnings growth looks better for 2013
 Relative valuations attractive, especially
versus bonds
Source: UBS Global Asset Management. Data as at end of July 2013.
SECTION 4
Investment Recommendations
SECTION 4.A
Investment Recommendations
UBS (Lux) Equity SICAV – Western Winners
Emerging markets as a driving force of global growth
Key trends to drive long-term growth:
Favourable demographics
Rising income levels
Increased urbanisation
Growing consumption in Emerging Markets
Western Winners: The best of both worlds
Invest in developed market companies with a strong EM footprint
…and benefit from the advantages
of developed markets:
Profit from
high growth
prospects for
Emerging Markets…
Comfort through reduced expected
volatility
Efficiency through lower trading
costs
Quality through superior corporate
governance
Emerging markets growth – with the comfort,
efficiency and quality of mature markets
Key characteristics - UBS Western Winners
 Actively managed equity fund
 Invest in around 40 companies from developed markets
 Portfolio inclusion criteria
– Profit from a high share of sales in emerging markets: currently 44% in the fund
– Attractive fundamental valuation
Sales in Emerging Markets
45%
30%
15%
0%
UBS Western Winners
Source: UBS Global Asset Management. Data as at end of July 2013, author’s calculations
MSCI World
Experienced investment team
Portfolio Managers – proven track record in stock picking
Broad, global market expertise based on
20 years of investment experience (average)
Nick
Irish
PM
Research – getting to know companies through deep analysis
Deep global industry knowledge from a team
of London-based Global Sector Specialists
(average experience 14 years)
Konstantin Stoev, (12 years industry
experience and the team consumer
sectors specialist) has particularly valuable
expertise for the Fund. He supports Nick
& Charles as Deputy PM.
Deep regional industry knowledge from a
large team of regional sector analysts based all
over the world (average experience 14 years)
Charles
Burbeck
PM
Performance - UBS Western Winners
Performance indexed in % (share class P-acc; basis USD, net of fees)¹
115
+ 10.73%
+ 6.07%
110
105
100
95
- 7.83%
- 9.85%
90
85
Jan
Feb
Mar
Apr
May
Jun
UBS (Lux) Equity SICAV - Western Winners (USD) P-acc (hedged in USD)
MSCI World Developed hedged in USD (net div. reinv.)
MSCI Emerging Market hedged in USD (net div. reinv.)
MSCI Emerging Market in USD (net div. reinv.)
Source: UBS Global Asset Management, Data as at end of July 2013
Portfolio characteristics are shown net of fees.
¹ These figures refer to the past. Past performance is not a reliable indicator of future results. The performance shown does not take account of any commissions and
costs charged when subscribing to and redeeming units.
Jul
Portfolio structure - UBS Western Winners
Source: UBS Global Asset Management, Data as at end of July 2013
The fund is actively managed, thus allocations can be changed any time at UBS’s discretion. Current portfolio structures may be found at
www.ubs.com/fundgate. This information should not be considered a recommendation to purchase or sell any particular security.
SECTION 4.B
Investment Recommendations
UBS (Lux) Equity SICAV – US Total Yield (USD)
Total yield is more attractive than dividend yield alone
Historically this approach has delivered strong returns
Total Yield in the Portfolio
Best quintile minus worst quintile
4.3%
Share buyback
yield
Total yield
5.7%
Annualized return
5%
4%
3%
2%
1%
0%
-1%
1.4%
Dividend yield
1973 – 2012
Total Yield
Source: UBS Global Asset Management. Data as at end of July 2013.
For illustrative purposes only.
Note: total yield can apply at a single stock level, as well as on an aggregate portfolio level.
Dividend Yield
Source: Empirical Research Partners.
One year holding periods 1973 through May 2012.
Total yield = (cash dividends + net cash used to repurchase shares) / market cap.
How do we capture the total yield?
Seeking the optimal combination of yield, quality and diversification
Consideration
Description
High total yields
The strategy aims to capture both dividends and share buybacks
High quality
Focus on quality factors in order to exclude low quality companies
Highly diversified
Diversified across sectors and with 100 equally weighted stocks
Total Yield 45%
High quality
criteria 55%
 Stable and Sustainable Total Yield:
– Balance Sheet & Earnings Quality
– Low Payout Ratio, High CF Coverage
– Lower stock price volatility
– High dividend payment stability
Distinguishing characteristics of the investment team
Investment team
 Experienced team with a solid
history of working together
 Research and investment process
is transparent
 Rigorous and disciplined portfolio
construction and risk
management
Jeremy Raccio,
Lead Portfolio Manager
12 years investment experience
Patrick Zimmermann,
Deputy Portfolio Manager
15 years investment experience
Members of a global team of 15 investment professionals
Supported by global resources of UBS Global Asset Management
Local equity trading
Currency specialists
Independent Risk Management
Performance - UBS US Total Yield
Performance indexed in % (share class P-acc; basis USD, net of fees)¹
117
+ 15.37%
115
113
+ 11.62%
111
109
107
105
103
101
99
97
02.13
03.13
04.13
05.13
UBS (Lux) Equity SICAV - US Total Yield (USD) P-acc
06.13
07.13
MSCI USA (net div. reinv.)
Source: UBS Global Asset Management, Data as at end of July 2013
Portfolio characteristics are shown net of fees.
¹ These figures refer to the past. Past performance is not a reliable indicator of future results. The performance shown does not take account of any commissions and
costs charged when subscribing to and redeeming units.
Portfolio structure - UBS US Total Yield
Sector
Weight (%)
Health Care
18.9
Information Technology
18.1
Consumer Discretionary
15.9
Financials
15.9
Industrials
12.1
Consumer Staples
10.0
Energy
4.0
Telecoms
3.0
Materials
2.1
Others
0.0
Deviation from index (%)
+6.1
Market cap break-down %
+0.2
Mid Cap
14%
+3.2
-0.6
+1.9
-0.2
-6.6
+0.4
-1.2
-3.2
Source: UBS Global Asset Management, Data as at end of July 2013
The fund is actively managed, thus allocations can be changed any time at UBS’s discretion. Current portfolio structures may be found at
www.ubs.com/fundgate. This information should not be considered a recommendation to purchase or sell any particular security.
Large Cap
86%
Portfolio positioning – UBS US Total Yield
Yahoo
Guess? Inc
Walmart
Share price is up over 30% since inception. Net buybacks increased 8%
with the release of the company’s latest financial results. The stock was
initially included in the portfolio due to very good quality scores,
including no long term debt and strong profitability. It’s share buyback
program gives a competitive buyback yield.
10%
8%
6%
4%
2%
0%
Share price is up over 20% since inception. Net buybacks increased
16% with the release of the company’s latest financial results. This
contributed to moving the share price higher. Initially we bought the
stock due to its attractive total yield as well as low leverage on the
balance sheet. The company also has a good profitability.
10%
8%
6%
4%
2%
0%
Guess? Inc Total Yield
Share price is up almost 15% since inception. Net buybacks increased
36% and dividends increased 1.3% with the release of the company’s
financial results. This contributed to moving the share price higher.
Initially we bought the stock due to its strong profitability as well as its
low price volatility.
Source: UBS Global Asset Management, Data as at end of July 2013
The fund is actively managed, thus allocations can be changed any time at UBS’s discretion. Current portfolio structures may be found at
www.ubs.com/fundgate. This information should not be considered a recommendation to purchase or sell any particular security.
Yahoo Total Yield
5%
4%
3%
2%
1%
0%
Walmart Total Yield
Dividend Yield
Buyback Yield
SECTION 4.C
Investment Recommendations
UBS (Lux) Equity Fund - China Opportunity (USD)
China is a global market force
 Sustainable growth: structural reform is
beneficial to long-term sustainable growth
 Strong currency: internationalization of
RMB
 Sound financial system: backed by sizeable
reserves, high saving rates and regulated
financial markets
 Secular opportunities: underpenetrated
domestic consumption, health care, etc.
Global rebalancing: China’s domestic consumption
“
China contributed more to global consumption
growth in 2011 than the traditional frontrunner
in this category, the United States.
”
IMF
Sino-Spending, 2012
“
Consumption, although still low, made a
bigger contribution than investment to
China’s growth in the first quarter [of 2013].
The Economist
Speed isn’t everything, 2013
Source: Barnett, S., Myrvoda, A. & Nabar, M. (2012). Sino-Spending. Retrieved from
http://www.imf.org/external/pubs/ft/fandd/2012/09/barnett.htm
”
Why invest in the UBS China Opportunity Fund?
Local Expertise via UBS
SDIC JV in China
PM with Proven Track
Record
40 – 70
High Conviction Stocks
Unconstrained by
Benchmark
Pure China Focus
Award Winning Fund
Local Expertise via UBS
Manager
– in
UBS
Greater
SDIC JV
China
China Fund
UBS Equity China Opportunity
China Opportunity Fund – an aggregation of success factors.
Attractive Valuation
Past 10-Year price-to-earnings ratio (P/E) of MSCI China Index
35
30
25
20
+1 s.d.
Historical 10-Year Avg P/E
15
10
-1 s.d.
Attractive
Level
5
0
1/1/2003
1/1/2004
1/1/2005
1/1/2006
1/1/2007
Past performance is not indicative of future results.
Source: Bloomberg, data from 1/1/2003 – 7/31//2013
1/1/2008
1/1/2009
1/1/2010
1/1/2011
1/1/2012
1/1/2013
Small/Mid Caps bias with a high exposure to domestic demand
Market Capitalization Breakdown
Outperformance of Small &
Mid Caps over past 7-months
China Opportunity Fund
Small/Mid Cap bias: ~ 60%
31-Jul-2013
(31-Jul-2013)
43%
45%
35%
35% 34%
26%
25%
15%
26%
22%
7%
1%
5%
5%
0%
-5%
-7.9%
-15%
Mega cap
Large cap
Mid cap
Small cap
UBS Equity China Opportunity Fund
Cash
MSCI China
Small/Mid Cap
Index
MSCI China Index
Past performance is not indicative of future results. *Mega Cap: > US$30 bn; Large Cap: US$10 – 30 bn); Mid Cap: US$1 – 10 bn); Small Cap: < US$1 bn.
For illustrative purposes only. The above market capitalization allocations are only indicative and can be changed at any time at UBS‘s discretion.
Source: UBS Global Asset Management & Bloomberg. Data as at end of July 2013
-10.6%
MSCI China
Large Cap
Index
Strong Asia Equities Team
Portfolio Management Team
 Experienced and dedicated team
for China equities
 Strong track record
Bin Shi
Lead Portfolio Manager
 Rigorous investment process
based on fundamental research
20 years investment experience
Hai Huang
Deputy Portfolio Manager /
Research Analyst
10 years investment experience
Supported by a team of experienced investment professionals
4 dedicated China equities investment
specialists, based in Hong Kong
12 Asian Equities investment specialists, based
in Singapore and Hong Kong
Supported by global resources of UBS Global Asset Management
Local equity trading
Currency specialists
Independent Risk Management
Performance – UBS China Opportunity
Performance indexed in % (share class P-acc; basis USD, net of fees)¹
130
120
110
100
90
80
70
60
50
Jul 10
Jan 11
Jul 11
Jan 12
UBS (Lux) Equity Fund - China Opportunity (USD)
Jul 12
Jan 13
MSCI China Index (USD)
Jul 13
USD - Period Ending: 31-Jul-2013
Net of fees
in %
Composite (USD)
MSCI China
Value added³
Ranking⁴
3 months
YTD
1 year
2 years²
SI²
3.72
8.88
29.38
0.04
-0.35
-4.08
-7.39
7.87
-3.74
-0.32
7.80
16.27
21.51
3.79
-0.03
1
1
1
N/A
N/A
Source: UBS Global Asset Management. Data as at end of July 2013. Portfolio characteristics are shown net of fees.
¹ These figures refer to the past. Past performance is not a reliable indicator of future results. The performance shown does not take account of any commissions and
costs charged when subscribing to and redeeming units.
² Periods greater than 1 year are annualized. Inception Date: 19.07.2010
³ Value added is the arithmetic difference between the composite return and the benchmark return.
⁴ Lipper Quartile Rank
Portfolio Structure - UBS China Opportunity
Source: UBS Global Asset Management, Data as at end of July 2013
The fund is actively managed, thus allocations can be changed any time at UBS’s discretion. Current portfolio structures may be found at
www.ubs.com/fundgate. This information should not be considered a recommendation to purchase or sell any particular security.
Q&A
Equity
Real Estate Market Switzerland
What’s next?
Dr. Daniel Brüllmann
Head of Wholesale Business
Global Real Estate - Switzerland
Global Real Estate – Switzerland
Customer-focused – transparent – far-sighted
 8 indirect real estate investment products
– 5 listed funds; UBS «Sima», the largest Swiss real estate fund
– 1 fund for qualified investors (not listed)
– 2 investment trusts
 Market and customer-oriented solutions for real estate
and real estate projects
– Developments, purchase / sale, investments in kind, «James»,
PPP, etc.
 Investment volume: approx. CHF 13 billion1
– around CHF 60 billion1 around the world
 around 900 properties in Switzerland
– around 1,700 worldwide
 Construction volume of around CHF 350 million per year
– Current new construction portfolio: around CHF 800 million1
1
2
per 30.06.2013
per 31.03.2013
57
Global Real Estate – Switzerland (GRE – CH)
Global Real Estate – Switzerland
Riccardo Boscardin
Deputy – Urs Fäs
Business Development
Assistance
Swiss Market Research
Marketing / Communications
Products & Transaction
Projects & Operations / IT
Legal & Compliance
Property Valuation
Asset Management (AM)
Fernanda Balducci
Institutional Business
Urs Fäs
Accounting & Controlling (AC)
Reto Grossmann
UBS AST Immobilien Schweiz
Construction & Development (CD)
Jean-Michel Roten
Acquisition & Disposition (AD)
Matthias Jäger
Data as of August 1, 2013
Wholesale Business
Daniel Brüllmann
UBS Direct Residential
UBS AST Kommerzielle Immobilien
Schweiz
UBS «Anfos»
UBS Direct Urban
UBS «Foncipars»
UBS «Sima»
Real Estate solutions
UBS «Swissreal»
Since 70 years in the Swiss real estate business…
…with intelligent real estate solutions
CHF 10 bn barrier
1943
1950
1956
1962
1973
2003
Launch
UBS AST-IS
2006
2009
Launch
UBS AST-KIS
2010
2012
Launch
UBS Direct Urban
Launch
UBS «Anfos»
Launch
UBS «Foncipars»
Launch
UBS Direct Residential
Plus
Launch
UBS «Sima»
Launch
UBS «Swissreal»
IPO of UBS Direct
Residential Plus and
renaming as UBS
Direct Residential
The real estate
business is
officially
incorporated into
UBS Global AM
Source: UBS Global Asset Management, Global Real Estate – Switzerland (GRE-CH); February 2013
UBS «Anfos» = UBS (CH) Property Fund - Swiss Residential «Anfos», UBS «Foncipars» = UBS (CH) Property Fund - Léman Residential «Foncipars», UBS «Sima» = UBS (CH) Property Fund - Swiss
Mixed «Sima», UBS «Swissreal» = UBS (CH) Property Fund - Swiss Commercial «Swissreal», UBS Direct Residential = UBS (CH) Property Fund – Direct Residential, UBS Direct Urban = UBS (CH)
Property Fund – Direct Urban, UBS AST-IS = UBS AST Immobilien Schweiz, UBS AST-KIS = UBS AST Kommerzielle Immobilien Schweiz
Highlights in the region of Ticino
UBS «Swissreal»: Commercial properties
Locarno, Piazza Grande 1 / Via Ciseri 2b
Commercial properties, with UBS as main tenant
Investment volume of approx. CHF 22 Mio.
4840 m2 commercial space
Completion 1894, renovation 2009
UBS «Sima»: retirement home „Residenza al Lido“
Locarno, Via della Posta 44
Exclusive retirement home in best location
next to the lake
Investment volume of approx. CHF 25 Mio.
UBS «Sima»: Commercial properties
Lugano, Via Pretorio 15
Commercial center Migros
Investment volume of approx. CHF 61 Mio.
10 780 m2 commercial space
Swiss job miracle
Consistent growth in employment over the last 15 years
12.0%
4.8
10.5%
4.6
9.0%
4.4
7.5%
4.2
6.0%
4.0
4.5%
3.8
3.0%
3.6
1.5%
3.4
0.0%
3.2
80 81 82 83 84 85 86 87 88 89 90 91 92 93 94 95 96 97 98 99 00 01 02 03 04 05 06 07 08 09 10 11 12F13F14F
Schweiz (rechte Skala)
Schweiz (linke Skala)
Eurozone (linke Skala)
Source: BFS; UBS Investment Bank; Experian Dezember 2012; UBS Global Asset Management, Global Real Estate Research & Strategy - Switzerland; März 2013
People
in paid
work (in (in
millions)
Anzahl
Erwerbstätige
Mio.)
Arbeitslosenquote
p.a.
Unemployment
rate p.a.
Forecast
Real interest rates in CHF are comparably attractive
4%
Swiss real interest rates on a 10 yrs basis
Euro zone real interest rates on a 10 yrs basis
3%
2%
1%
0%
-1%
-2%
02
03
04
05
06
07
08
09
10
11
12
Source: Bloomberg, February 2013
Remark: Calculation of the eurozone real interest rate is based on the lowest 10 year government bond yield (mainly Germany and France)
Risk premiums remain at historical highs
Comfortable cushioning in case of an interest rate increase
Residential
Retail
Office
5%
5%
5%
4%
4%
4%
3%
3%
3%
2%
2%
2%
1%
1%
1%
0%
0%
0%
01 02 03 04 05 06 07 08 09 10 11 12
Prime property yields Zurich
01 02 03 04 05 06 07 08 09 10 11 12
10 yrs Swiss Government Bond yield
01 02 03 04 05 06 07 08 09 10 11 12
Risk premium
Prime property yields Geneva
Source: Wüest und Partner 4Q 2012; SNB; UBS Investment Bank; UBS Global Asset Management, Global Real Estate Research & Strategy – Switzerland, February 2013
Global Real Estate – Switzerland
Product offering
AuM (CHF m)
Investment focus
2009
2010
2013
2012
2013
Listed funds
UBS (CH) Property Fund –
Direct Residential
Residential buildings in
German-speaking Switzerland
237
307
379
421
421
UBS (CH) Property Fund –
Léman Residential «Foncipars»
Residential buildings in
French-speaking Switzerland
818
839
875
898
898
UBS (CH) Property Fund –
Residential buildings in
Swiss Residential «Anfos»
German-speaking Switzerland
1'622
1'685
1'813
1'882
2'002
UBS (CH) Property Fund –
Swiss Commercial «Swissreal»
Commercial buildings
1'112
1'142
1'291
1'405
1'405
UBS (CH) Property Fund –
A mix of properties
Swiss Mixed «Sima»
throughout Switzerland
5'483
5'743
6'360
6'715
6'715
–
–
–
50
50
1'015
1'129
1'272
1'465
1'465
21
10'308
92
10'937
154
12'144
314
13'150
314
13'270
8.0
6.1
11.0
8.3
0.9
throughout Switzerland
Fund for qualified investors
UBS (CH) Property Fund –
A mix of properties
Direct Urban
throughout Switzerland
Investment trusts
UBS Foundation (AST-IS)
A mix of properties
«Immobilien Schweiz»
throughout Switzerland
UBS Foundation (AST-KIS)
Commercial buildings
«Kommerzielle Immobilien Schweiz»
throughout Switzerland
Total of the portfolio
Annual percentage change (%)
1
UBS «Anfos» as per 31.03.2013; UBS Direct Urban, UBS Direct Residential, UBS «Sima», UBS «Foncipars» and UBS «Swissreal» per 31.12.2012; AST-IS and AST-KIS as per 31.07.2013
1
Performance of the listed Swiss real estate funds
Premium development from January 1, 2003 until July 31, 2013
Source: UBS Global Asset Management, SXI Real Estate Funds Index, Factset, listed Swiss real estate funds financial results.
Past performance is no guarantee for future results.
Update - SXI Real Estate Funds Index
Data as at July 31, 2013
Notes: Market capitalisation, weightings and prices based on SIX data. NAV according to the latest company statement, adjusted for the dividends. Mixed means portfolio consists of more than one sector. Region
and sector classification as well as Premium and Dividend Yield calculation done by UBS Global Asset Management based on financial year statements. Performance is Total Return based on Factset data.
*Rothschild RE Helvetia is in the index since 9/5/2012, CS REF Hospitality is in the index since 1/11/2012. Past performance is no guarantee for future results.
Premium Development real estate funds according to type of use
Large difference between residential and commercial buildings could lead to
entry opportunities
35%
30%
25%
20%
15%
10%
5%
0%
06.2009
12.2009
06.2010
Premium spread
Source: UBS Global Asset Management, Global Real Estate
Data: as per July 31, 2013
12.2010
06.2011
Premium commercial property funds
12.2011
06.2012
12.2012
Premium residential property funds
06.2013
Market development last 50 years
Tendency to regulatory changes after structural interruptions
1967
1971
• Federal law about
withholding tax
• Federal law about
investment funds
500
1977
1989
Nation refuses the
initiative about
protection of tenants
Federal enactment
to stabilize building
industy
1991
1995
Partial annulment
of federal
enactment of
1989 (investment
restrictions for
pension funds)
Federal enactment (5 years valid)
to reduce risk in real estate market
2007
2013
Federal law about
collective
investment schemes
Revised federal law
about investment
funds
Partial revision
federal law about
collective
investment
schemes
450
400
350
300
250
200
150
100
50
0
1963 1965 1967 1969 1971 1973 1975 1977 1979 1981 1983 1985 1987 1989 1991 1993 1995 1997 1999 2001 2003 2005 2007 2009 2011 2013
Source: UBS Global Asset Management, Global Real Estate
Rüd Blass IF Index
Outlook
Construction projects
Fund
Location
Street
Project name
Utilization
UBS Direct Residential Rheinfelden
Pappelnweg
Weiherfeld III
Apartments
UBS Direct Residential Schöftland
Feldmattweg
Feldmatt
Apartments
UBS «Anfos»
Basel
Aeschenvorstadt
Anfos-Haus
UBS «Anfos»
Zurich
Heerenschürlistrasse Heerenschürli
UBS «Foncipars»
Gland
UBS «Foncipars»
Boudry
UBS «Sima»
Glattbrugg
under construction
Completion
until / movei
1. Sem. 13
www.rheinfelden-weiherfeld.ch
21
under construction
1. Sem. 13
www.casa-color.ch
Mixed usage
45
under construction
2. Sem. 13
www.anfoshaus.ch
Apartments
120
under construction
1. Sem. 16
Eikenott
Apartments
27
under construction
2. Sem. 14
www.eikenott.ch
La Baconnière
Apartments
25
under construction
2. Sem. 14
www.labaconniere.ch
Airport-Hotel
Commercial
80
under construction
2. Sem. 13
UBS «Sima»
Altstätten (SG)
Seven
Apartments
40
under construction
1. Sem. 14
UBS «Sima»
Opfikon
Wright Place
Mixed usage
140
under construction
1. Sem. 14
UBS «Sima»
Boudry
La Baconnière
Apartments
18
under construction
2. Sem. 14
UBS «Sima»
Zurich-Glattpark Dufauxstrtasse
Kameha Grand Hote Commercial
120
under construction
1. Sem. 15
UBS «Sima»
Davos
Promenade
Symond Park
Mixed usage
80
under construction
2. Sem. 15
UBS «Sima»
Pratteln
Bahnhofplatz 1
Aquila
Mixed usage
57
under construction
2. Sem. 15
www.aquila-pratteln.ch
UBS «Swissreal»
Pratteln
Güterstrasse
Polygon
Offices
35
under construction
2. Sem. 13
www.magnet-areal.ch
Riethofstrasse
Total
Source: UBS Global Asset Management, Global Real Estate
Note: No responsibility is taken for the correctness of above-given information.
Data: as per June 30, 2013
Investment
costs
i l l d
14
822
Status
Internet page
www.labaconniere.ch
Summary
The turning point is moving forward
 Migration and low interest rates are expected to remain. Thus, for the near
future, real estate prices are expected to stay at the current high.
 „Risk-on“ environment is fragile. Significant asset class rotations at the expense
of fixed income are currently not taking place.
 Over-supply risks may arise in the residential sector, in regions with below
average demand, as well as the office sector within the German speaking part
 An increase in offered rents is only expected in the residential sector.
Offered rents are expected to move sideways in the retail and downwards in the
office sector.
 Total returns are expected to decline towards the level of the income return
The international real estate universe
Investments in Europe expand the investment universe for a Swiss investor
already by 23 times
EUROPE
Investment volume
USD 3’111 bn.1
2011 GDP growth2 1.7%
2012 GDP growth2 122%
North America
Investment volume
USD 3’909 bn.
2011 GDP growth 1.8%
2012 GDP growth 2.3%
SWITZERLAND
Investment volume
USD 136 bn.1
2011 GDP growth 2.7%
2012 GDP growth 2.2%
Source: DTZ Research (2009). Note: GDP growth rates are estimates of UBS Investment Bank from August 2011.
1 Estimates are based on following exchange rates: GBP 0.64 / 1 USD, EUR 0.78 / 1 USD and CHF 0.98 / 1 USD.
2 only Western Europe
3 Asia excluding Australia and New Zealand.
ASIA PACIFIC
Investment volume
USD 2’943 bn.
2011 GDP growth3 6.7%
2012 GDP growth3 6.5%
Correlation of total returns between Switzerland and Europe
Significant diversification effects by non-domestic investments
Source: UBS Global Real Estate & Strategy, August 2013
Note: correlation 1999-2012 for commercial real estate on the basis of synthetic indices
Past / expected performance is no guarantee for future performance
Continued economic divergence in Europe leads to different
regional real estate market fundamentals
Employment and retail sales growth 2013–15 (% p.a.)
Source: Experian, June 2013
Projected wide range of returns – Case for diversification valid
Income levels drive total returns and capital values expect to stabilize
ERV growth
Capital return
2%
6%
4%
2%
0%
0%
-2%
-4%
-2%
-6%
-8%
-4%
-10%
2012
Germany
2013
France
Eurozone
2014
Netherlands
2015
Italy
Spain
2016
UK
Switzerland
Income return
2012
Germany
France
2013
Eurozone
2014
Netherlands
2015
Italy
Spain
2016
UK
Switzerland
Total return
9%
12%
8%
10%
7%
8%
6%
6%
5%
4%
4%
2%
3%
2%
0%
1%
-2%
0%
-4%
2012
Germany
France
2013
Eurozone
2014
Netherlands
2015
Italy
Spain
2016
UK
Switzerland
2012
Germany
2013
France
Eurozone
2014
Netherlands
2015
Italy
Spain
Source: UBS Global Asset Management, Global Real Estate Research and Strategy; July 2013
Note: local valuation standards are used outside the UK (marked-to-market); 2012-2015 numbers are forecasts; Actual returns may vary materially from forecast returns
2016
UK
Switzerland
Q&A
Real Estate Market Switzerland – What’s next?
Prospettiva
Save the date: Investment-Breakfast
03. ottobre 2013
Grazie per la vostra attenzione.