5 July 2006 ENEA Sede Roma CRESCO Subproject III 4: CRESCO-SOC-COG Socio-Cognitive Modelling for Complex Socio-Technological Networks (Modellistica delle Reti Complesse viste come Aggregati Socio-Tecnologici e Cognitivi) Strategies, Competences and Objectives Alessandro D'Ausilio (ECONA), Massimiliano Caramia (Tor Vergata) Adam Maria Gadomski (ENEA), Alessandro Londei (ECONA), Marta Olivetti-Belardinelli (ECONA) English Extended Version (Ed. A.M.Gadomski) 20 November 2006 CRESCO, Sottoprogetto III 4: CRESCO-SOC-COG 1. Objectives and General Strategy (A.M.Gadomski) 2. ECONA (A. Londei, M. Olivetti-Belardinelli, D'Ausilio ) - general information - competences - specific research interests - state of the art and the contribution 3. TOR VERGATA ( M. Caramia) - general information - competences - specific research interests - state of the art and the contribution 4. ENEA (A.M.Gadomski) - competences - project planning - examples CRESCO, Sottoprogetto III 4: CRESCO-SOC-COG CRESCO is a large ENEA's and Italian Project focused on the research on complex systems in the different areas of science and technologies. It is based on the development of the advanced High Performance Computing infrastructure ENEA grid. CRESCO (Centro Computazionale di RicErca sui Sistemi Complessi, Computational Research Center for Complex Systems) is co-funded by the Italian Ministry of Education, University and Research (MIUR). The CRESCO project is functionally built around the HPC platform, through the creation of a number of scientific thematic laboratories, such as: Computing Science Laboratory, Computational Systems Biology Laboratory, and Complex Networks Systems Laboratory - dealing with the complexity of information technology networks and human organizations decisional dependences in large national critical services infrastructures. A major ambition of this multi-discipline project is to allow an inter-disciplinary flow of methods and ideas related to the network-based modeling and simulation of complex systems and their aggregates. Sottoprogetto III 4: CRESCO-SOC-COG Objectives and General Strategy CRESCO-SOC-COG is the activity focused on the research on the vulnerabilities of human factors in frame of networked structures of high-risk large human organizations. This new challenging cross-disciplinary objective requires a qualitatively new systemic conceptualization tool for human-technology systems, therefore, the socio-cognitive methodology involved is based on the main frameworks of the holistic TOGA meta-theory. Goal Research and development of the ontology and socio-cognitive and socio-technological models which should enable: Domain-independent computational modelling and demonstrative simulation of socio-cognitive managerial high-risk decisional processes and their interdependences. Especially in the case of the collaborative emergency management for the protection of Large Complex Critical Infrastructures (LCCI). ModelIing and analysis of the socio-cognitive vulnerabilities of these organizations. Sottoprogetto III 4: CRESCO-SOC-COG Objectives and General Strategy Identification of the Domain Decisional Politic Organs Top-Down Vision : Local administrative, govern and voluntary organizations LCCI Owners Large Technological Networks- LCCIs Utenti di GRT Socio-Technological network for the management of Large Critical Technological Infrastructures Sub-project III 4: CRESCO-SOC-COG Objectives and General Strategy “Spetroscopy” of the conceptualization layers Identification Layers: Physical Layer Cyber/information Layer Organization / Management Layer Sub-layers: Cognitive –Sub-simbolic Layer Socio-cognitive Simbolic Layer Inter-organization Layer Intra-organizational Layer Their interfaces Sottoprogetto III 4: Multimedial Interfaces between Cyber and Organization Layer CRESCO-SOC-COG (Ferov di Stato, L’espresso, 2006) Tasks Separation Topological & process data Tasks & Actions data Vocal Communication Written Tasks & Inform. Cyber Layer Organization Layer Sottoprogetto III 4: CRESCO-SOC-COG Conceptual Scenario-based Interface: An introduction to the CIP (Critical Infrastructure Protection) ontology Operator is an autonomous informer and executor, see UMP. Operators are human interfaces between Cyber and Organization Layers. Organization Layer is activated when the situation is over the (routine & emergency) competences of the operators Organization decisions provide context and constrains for next organizational decisions. Adam M. Gadomski, CAMO – ENEA – RC Casaccia CRESCO-SOC-COG Sottoprogetto III 4: Socio-Cognitive Domain Socio-Cognitive and Socio-technological layers Socio-Technological Domain Organiz. A Organiz. B D-M autonomo … R 5 Subsymbolic D-M zoom R 1 Symbolic D-M Separation of two conceptual domains of research. R 3 D-M collaborativo R 6 R 2 R 4 R 7 Simulation: Piattaforme parallele software di supporto D-M : tecn. “multiagent” (MAS) Nodi esecutivi Legenda: Ri Nodi decisionali manageriali Ri – ruolo i Reti di Grande Infrastrutture Tecnologiche dei Servizi Unita umane supportate dal IT Sottoprogetto III 4: CRESCO-SOC-COG Strategia Generale : ORGANIZATION COMPLEXITY Multi-dimensional attributes space Complex network of interactions Continuous & Discrete Dynamics Physics based statist. models (primitive intelligence) Interactions with dynamic physical & social environment Intelligent knowledge-based and interest-based human nodes Autonomy of nodes Emotional and Body contribution components Cognitive factors: ill measurable, observable and monitored Project requires a new innovative computational systemic methodology for the modeling. Adam M. Gadomski, CAMO – ENEA – RC Casaccia New modeling paradigms (high intelligence) TOGA meta-theory Modelling Tool: Top-down Object-based Goal-oriented Approach TOGA is a formal goal-oriented knowledge ordering meta-theory, its objective is to enable design of complex systems & their computer simulation. It has three basic components: - Theory of Abstract Objects (TAO) is a first level and a basic domain independent conceptualization system and a consensus building platform; - Knowledge Conceptualization System (KNOCS), It includes TOGA’s ontology, i.e. axiomatic assumptions and basic conceptualization frameworks for the definition and decompositions of the real-world problem into an intelligent agent (IA) and domains of IA goaloriented activities, i.e. the triple: (Intelligent Entity, Environment, Interactions) - Methodological Rules System (MRUS) for the specification (if not existing yet) or identification (if existing) of complex systems and problems; it indicates how TAO and KNOCS have to be used during the conceptual identification, specification and solution of real word problems. The KNOCS meta-frameworks includes four modeling paradigms: 1. Universal Reasoning Frame Paradigm (URP), it is based on the IPK (Information, Preferences, Knowledge) architecture. 2. Universal Management Paradigm (UMP), it includes management functional definition and a conceptualization of the context of the managerial role. 3. SPG Universal Domain Paradigm (UDP), it is a framework of the conceptualization of the relation between an organization and its foundation-goal in terms of: systems, processes, functions and design-goals. 4. WAG Universal Activity Paradigm (UAP) , conceptualization of the relation between a problem world and a goal of intervention of intelligent agent . [CNIP’06 Conf.] Sottoprogetto III 4: CRESCO-SOC-COG Cognitive complex networks modeling First project cog-engineering hypothesis: Abstract Cognitive Architecture of DecisionMaker is based on 4 types of reasoning processes reciprocally interacting and developed on the recursive, incremental and multi-layered IPK based network (with a fractal property ). TOGA I P K Domains of possible research Subsymbolic Not conscious reasoning Conscious reasoning Neural Networks Images-Based Associations Genetic Algorithms Symbolic Associative networks Procedural-relational networks Associative Networks Cause-consequence networks Model based network Sottoprogetto III 4: CRESCO-SOC-COG Organizational complex networks modeling Second project engineering hypothesis: Universal Management Paradigm (UMP) defines the manager environment from the subjective perspective of a preselected decision-making manager [4] which can be projected on real role-networks of human organizations. SUPERVISOR/ COORDINATOR tasks information cooperation expertises COOPERATING MANAGER MANAGER ADVISOR Knowledge & Preferences repository information INFORMER tasks with the same relative internal structure EXECUTOR DOMAIN OF ACTIVITY AND MANAGER’s GOAL-DOMAIN Recursive incremental model Sottoprogetto III 4: CRESCO-SOC-COG Identification of Vulnerability The presented modeling frames enable identification of different types of organizational vulnerability: on individual levels, for group d-m, and cooperative intra-organizational types. Using IPK Using UMP SUPERVISOR Domain of Activity tasks Vulnerabilities information n cooperation I expertises COOPERATING MANAGER MANAGER ADVISOR P K goal Knowledge Preferences information tasks The same structure We may distinguish: INFORMER - Not sufficient information EXECUTOR - Not proper preferences -Not adequate competences (knowledge). - Improper communication Domain of management (Domain of activities) Sottoprogetto III 4: CRESCO-SOC-COG Identification of Vulnerability Human organization is a system/network with explicitly established reciprocal dependencies between people, which, according to their competences, collaborate for achieving common objectives or realize predefined missions. The concepts: vulnerability, crisis and emergency are well visible in this generic h-orgnization life-cycle picture where they can be, in different manner, allocated to the organization phases. H-Organization Life-cycle Foundation Self-organization Efficacy Proper activity phase Ef1 Re-organization Vulnerability Ef2 Proper Activity Vulnerability Re-organization Crisis Proper Activity Ef0 Pathological organization Healthy organization Organization in recovery Time Self-org phase Qualitative illustration Gadomski,2005, We distinguish three necessary critical efficacy levels: -Survive efficacy, Ef0. - Emergency critical efficacy, Ef1 - Routine critical efficacy, Ef2 (enables a bureaucratic functioning) Sottoprogetto III 4: CRESCO-SOC-COG Partners Top Tasks Allocation Cognitive Layer ECONA Integration Methodology Socio-cognitive Layer ENEA DII - TOR VERGATA Socio-technological Layer Sottoprogetto III 4: CRESCO-SOC-COG ECONA (1) Interuniversity Center for Research on Cognitive Processing in Natural and Artificial Systems Informazione Generale ECONA is an inter-university and cross-disciplinary center providing teaching staff and researchers in which participate 12 Italian universities. ECONA collaborates with research projects (including projects financed by MURST, CNR, the EEC and the European Science Foundation) and covers the following areas: Psychology of cognitive processes Mental process models Neural networks and genetic programming It is focused on the studies of cognitive processes and collaborates on research projects and their practical applications. Non-linear dynamic behavior Members of ECONA represent inter-disciplinary competences: psychology, philosophy, physics, computer science, mathematics, engineering, medicine and organization sciences. Psychophysiology and neuropsychology Natural language processing Logic, languages and methods in programming Pedagogic communication Education with intelligent processor support Probabilistic approaches to situations of uncertainty Learning processes Sottoprogetto III 4: CRESCO-SOC-COG ECONA (2): Cognitive Perspective on Decision Making Decision-Making Tempo ridotto Complessità della rappresentazione problemica Stress e Responsabilità ERRORE Ma se non esiste una risposta sempre “Corretta”? Sottoprogetto III 4: CRESCO-SOC-COG ECONA (3) IMPLEMENTATION • Situazioni artificiali e semplificate > controllo < aderenza realtà • Situazioni reali < controllo > aderenza realtà Sottoprogetto III 4: CRESCO-SOC-COG ECONA (4) SCOPI Individuare classi di risposte divise per tipologie di personalità DECISONALI • Strategie Analitiche VS. Globali (Complexity) • Fast VS Slow responder (Time) • Strategie di Coping (Stress, responsibility) Sottoprogetto III 4: CRESCO-SOC-COG ECONA (5) QUANDO - COME - PERCHE’ si commettono errori • Previsione errori “macchina” uomo • Supporto decisionale situazioni critiche • Controllo in real-time • Simulazione effetti della decisione Sottoprogetto III 4: CRESCO-SOC-COG ECONA (6) from SOM Cluster Analysis Behavioral prototypes from TOGA Sottoprogetto III 4: ECONA (7) CRESCO-SOC-COG Automatic Model Generation Possibility Genetic algorithms genetic population Plasticity selection fitness crossing-over mutations next population Architecture selection Sottoprogetto III 4: ECONA (8) CRESCO-SOC-COG Automatic Model Generation Possibility • selection of the properties of artificial agents whose behavior is compatible with natural observation • decisional-making is under/(driven-by) environmental pressure • determination of suitable recurrent neural architectures for best results by means of genetic algorithms • analysis of neural spatial and functional distribution for detecting functional areas involved in decisional task • extension to socio-cognitive networks of evolved agents Sottoprogetto III 4: ECONA (9) CRESCO-SOC-COG From Cognitive Models to Socio-Cognitive Networks Decisional agents genetic modelization Fastness Efficency Behavioral support to psychological and artificial observations Sottoprogetto III 4: CRESCO-SOC-COG Dipartimento di Ingegneria dell’Impresa Università di Roma “Tor Vergata” Competenze e Aree principali di ricerca • Modellazione dei processi gestionali • Ottimizzazione e simulazione di sistemi complessi • Ottimizzazione su reti • Metodi e modelli per il supporto alle decisioni • Logistica e Produzione Sottoprogetto III 4: CRESCO-SOC-COG DII - TOR VERGATA • Interesi particolari riferiti ai goal del progetto – Ottimizzazione in ambiente on-line – Modellazione di sistemi di produzione-servizio tramite agenti autonomi – Modellazione di problemi decisionali in presenza di più decisori con presenza o assenza di cooperazione e/o negoziazione – Simulazione di sistemi organizzati in scenari tattici e/o operativi • Risorse: professori, post-doc, laureandi Sottoprogetto III 4: CRESCO-SOC-COG DII - TOR VERGATA ESPERIENZA PREGRESSA • Esperienza in progetti su argomenti correlati: Progetto Strategico CNR su “La gestione delle emergenze nelle organizzazioni complesse”; 9 unità perative coordinate da Tor Vergata; anni 2000-2002. • Conoscenza e uso dei diversi Strumenti di Progettazione Concettuale. Sottoprogetto III 4: CRESCO-SOC-COG DII - TOR VERGATA: Possible Contributions Case Based Analysis e Modellazione • Analisi di casi reali scelti e la modellazione sintetica (organizational networks) • Simulazione (tipo demo) di casi di studio relativi a situazioni di crisi rilevanti in cooperazione tra organizzazioni complesse, al fine di individuare le cause di vulnerabilità e definire le azioni correttive al loro interno. • Attività successive proposte: prototipizzazione del tool di simulazione con possibilità da parte dell’utente di effettuare opportuni tuning del sistema per il suo controllo. Sottoprogetto III 4: CRESCO-SOC-COG ENEA Keywords: • competences • • planning esamples Systemistic Modelling and Top-down approach Socio-Cognitive Engineering Meta-Knowledge Engineering & Management Decision-Making Intelligence Ontology Building Methodology Abstract Intelligent Agents Organizational Intelligence Organizational Vulnerability Simulation Modelling Sottoprogetto III 4: CRESCO-SOC-COG ENEA PLANNING 1. Data & Modeling phase 2. Designing & Implementing phase 3. Improvement & Validation phase 1. Data & Modeling phase - Data acquisition - Proper modeling - Model validation 2. Designing & Implementing phase - Parallelization - Implementation - Validation 3. Improvement & Validation phase - Improvements - Test cases - Validation Sub-project III 4: CRESCO-SOC-COG ENEA Data Acquisition: EXPERIMENTS For Cognive DecisionMaking For Organizational DecisionMaking Identification of Socio-Cognitive Vulnerabilities Sottoprogetto III 4: CRESCO-SOC-COG EXAMPLE: an identification of the Incidents and their main observables (Key factors) Source: L’espresso, 6 Luglio 2006 Sottoprogetto III 4: • CRESCO-SOC-COG EXAMPLE: an identification of the key factors of human errors: …IPK 65% METHODOLOGICAL Framework We have: Experimental observables and Theory observables. Experimental observables Experimental factors (key factors) Preference Informazioni Domain Model Theory Ontology Conoscenza Theory observables MODEL SPECIALIZATION Source: L’espresso, 6 Luglio 2006 SIMULATIOR DESIGN Sub-project III 4: CRESCO-SOC-COG ENEA Analyzed Test Cases 1. Blackout Italy/Suisse , 28 september 2003 2. Chernobyl disaster 3. Katrina hurricane 4. Airport Linate accident 5. Tsunami: international scale catastrophe –Indian Ocean P,Sargeni, L’ergonomia cognitiva nella vulnerabilità delle organizzazioni: la prospettiva socio-cognitiva di TOGA. Facolta Science di Comunicazione, Univ. La Sapienza.,ENEA, 2006. Sub-project III 4: CRESCO-SOC-COG Preliminary Test Cases Results Identification of vulnerability on the IPK level and according to the UMP roles. Ruoli Casi Supervisor Manager Cooperating Manager Advisor Informer Italian Blackout Chernobyl Linate Katrina Tsunami Legenda: Il problema si è verificato sul livello delle Informazioni Nessun valore dominante Il problema si è verificato sul livello delle Preferenze Il problema si è verificato sul livello delle Conoscenze [P,Sargeni ] Executor Sub-project III 4: CRESCO-SOC-COG Possible results hypotheses How, is possible to improve organiz, robustness/(decrease vulnerability)? Hypotheses: - by modifications of organization architecture - by modifications of roles (competences, responsibility, power) - by increasing of the consciousness on the emotional components of DM -- computer support, automatic distribution IPK in organization according to the organizational roles of nodes. -- Providing these structures more transparent -- Modification and adaptation of distributed DM procedures Sub-project III 4: CRESCO-SOC-COG References • Jens Rassmussen, 1988. A cognitive engineering approach to the modeling of decision making and its • A.M. Gadomski (2004). Humam Organization Crisis: Identification, Response & Recovery, http://192.107.74.146/gad-crisis.htm A.M. Gadomski, 2002, Systemic Approach for the Sophocles Global Specification,. http://hid.casaccia.enea.it/RepSoph-v10.pdf http://erg4146.casaccia.enea.it/wwwerg26701/Gad-toga.htm R.J. Sternberg, Triarchic Theory of Intelligence,. Student theses: D. Ricciardi, Analisi della vulnerabilità del business aziendale e del Knowledge Management secondo la prospettiva della teoria TOGA, 2005,, Univ. Tor Vergata. P,Sargeni, L’ergonomia cognitiva nella vulnerabilità delle organizzazioni: la prospettiva sociocognitiva di TOGA. Facolta Science di Comunicazione, Univ. La Sapienza, 2006. Selected ENEA’s materials of the IRRIIS Project, 2006 L’ESPRESSO., N.26, 6 Lug. 2006 Web: - Google search: CIIP, CIP, cognitive: http://www.google.it/search?hl=it&q=CIIP%2C+CIP%2C+cognitive&btnG=Cerca&meta= – the European co-ordination project on Critical Information Infrastructure Research Coordination. http://www.ci2rco.org/index.asp – http://w3.uniroma1.it/security/Eventi/Sciascia.pdf – www.cnipa.gov.it/site/_files/pres-MEROLAroma.PPT – Activity progress report: Relazione sulle attività svolte dall'ENEA -CAMO, 2005 : http://hid.casaccia.enea.it/activity2005.htm • • • • • • … organization in process control, emergency management, CAD/CAM, office systems, and library systems. Advances in Man-machine Systems Research 4: 165--243 Sub-project III 4: CRESCO-SOC-COG References ECONA DII-U.Tor Vergata Sub-project III 4: CRESCO-SOC-COG Grazie