Meeting SellaAdvice Trading
Torino, 12 giugno 2004
UFFICIO ANALISI TECNICA
OK,
LET’S PRACTISE
WITH TRADING
FIB30:
HOW TO DEAL WITH IT
UFFICIO ANALISI TECNICA
But, first, have a look to some
“MONEY MANAGEMENT” RULES
The trend is your friend: never fight the trend
Do not “average”. Never have loyalty to a
position. Bad trades should not become
long term “investments”
Plan your trade, trade your plan. Predetermine your
exit points, i.e. STOP-LOSS, before getting into a trade
STOP TRAILING: the best way to let your profits run
UFFICIO ANALISI TECNICA
MONEY MANAGEMENT RULES
Avoid thin markets; avoid high volatility
(if you can)
Identify and eliminate stress. Keep
FEAR, GREED and HOPE under control
Never risk more than 1% or 2% of your
capital on any trade. Never hold large
position if you can’t hedge them
Save money for a rainy day
Do not overtrade
DISCIPLINE. It’s a prerequisite to maintain
effective risk control. You need discipline to
apply your method and your trading plan
UFFICIO ANALISI TECNICA
MONEY MANAGEMENT RULES
... going to dismiss all this stuff
as obvious clichés?
Indeed, few things
are easier to ignore than
trading advice...
Live long enough and you will eventually
be wrong about everything...
The only sure thing in the long run is that
we all be dead...
Consider for example the rule “Do Not Average”,
i.e. “Cut your losses short”.
How many times did you ignore it?
What happened then?
UFFICIO ANALISI TECNICA
FIB30: daily chart
Fib 30 future (24,180, 24,300, 23,995, 24,250, +30)
27000
26500
FIB30 - JUN '03
26000
25500
Res: 24.600
25000
24500
24000
23500
Sup: 23.500
23000
22500
22000
21500
21000
20500
25
4
11
2002 November
18
25
2
9
16
December
23
6
2003
13
20
27
3
10
February
17
24
3
10
March
17
24
31
7
April
14 22
5
May
UFFICIO ANALISI TECNICA
12
19
30000
25000
20000
15000
10000
5000
0
26
FIB30: intraday chart
Fib 30 future (24,255, 24,275, 24,230, 24,250, -5)
Res: 24.575/600
Res: 24.440
Res: 24.300
Sup: 24.100
Sup: 23.950-24.000
Sup: 23.800
Sup: 23.690
FIB30 - JUN '03
June, 8th
June, 9th
24800
24750
24700
24650
24600
24550
24500
24450
24400
24350
24300
24250
24200
24150
24100
24050
24000
23950
23900
23850
23800
23750
23700
23650
23600
23550
23500
23450
23400
23350
1500
1000
500
0
Directnl Movement +DI (22.0000), Directnl Movement -DI (20.0000), Directnl Movement ADXR (26.0000)
40
30
20
10
22
28
29
30
2
May
5
6
7
8
9
10
UFFICIO ANALISI TECNICA
Good friends for a Fib30 trader: Pivot Points
A projection of the two market dimensions:
Volatility & Directionality
FIB30 DAILY (24,490.00, 24,565.00, 24,095.00, 24,220.00, -300.000)
24750
FIB30 - 08 JUN 2003
24700
Second Resistance = Pivot + (H-L)
24650
HIGH: 24.565
24600
First Resistance = (2 * Pivot) - L
24550
24500
OPEN: 24.490
24450
Pivot Point = (H + L + C) / 3
24400
24350
CLOSE: 24.220First
Support = (2 * Pivot) - H
24300
24250
Second Support = Pivot – (H-L)
24200
24150
24100
LOW: 24.095
24050
24000
23950
23900
5
6
7
8
9
12
13
14
15
16
UFFICIO ANALISI TECNICA
Good friends for a Fib30 trader: Pivot Points - example
Fib 30 future (24,255, 24,275, 24,230, 24,250, -5)
24650
09 JUN 2003
24600
24550
First Res: 24.492
24500
24450
24400
Pivot Point: 24.293
24350
24300
24250
FIB 30 – 09 JUN 2003
24200
24150
what happened
24100
24050
Open: 24.180
24000
First Sup: 24.022
23950
23900
High: 24.300
23850
23800
Low: 23.995
1500
1000
Close (Official Price): 24.255
3:12 PM
7
11:12 AM
1:12 PM
3:12 PM
8
11:12 AM
500
0
1:12 PM
3:12 PM
9
11:12 AM
1:12 PM
3:12 PM
5:12 PM
UFFICIO ANALISI TECNICA
7:12 PM
Fib30 trading: a real example
Fib 30 future (24,255, 24,275, 24,230, 24,250, -5)
Res: 24.575/600
Res: 24.440
Res: 24.300
Sup: 24.100
Sup: 23.950-24.000
Sup:23.770,
23.800
Long at: 23.910-23.950, s/l
Sup: 23.690
t/p 24.080-24.120, s/l EP if 24.025
reached
Short at: 24.380-24.420, s/l 24.615,
t/p 24.180-24.220, s/l EP if 24.270
reached
FIB 30 – 09 JUN 2003
FIB30 - JUN '03
what happened
Open: 24.180
1500
1000
High: 24.300
500
0
Directnl Movement +DI (22.0000), Directnl Movement -DI (20.0000), Directnl Movement ADXR (26.0000)
22
Report published on: 09 Jun 2003, h: Low: 23.995
3.20 pm (update of report published
Close: 24.255
28
29
at 9.30 am)
30
2
May
5
6
7
24800
24750
24700
24650
24600
24550
24500
24450
24400
24350
24300
24250
24200
24150
24100
24050
24000
23950
23900
23850
23800
23750
23700
23650
23600
23550
23500
23450
23400
23350
8
9
40
30
20
10
10
UFFICIO ANALISI TECNICA
Summing up: the equity line
EQUITY LINE FIB30 Daily + Scalping
UTILE Fib/contratto: + 16.674
punti
17500
Utile Tot. Nr. Punti Fib
+ 83.368 euro (lordo)
+ 50.216 euro (netto)
Nr. operazioni totali: 1324
Operazioni in utile: 389, Utile medio: + 237 pti
Operazioni in perdita: 369, Perdita media: - 204 pti
Operazioni chiuse a zero: 283
Operaz. mark -to-mark et : 283, utile medio: + 1 pti
(dal 17.10.2000 al 21.05.2004)
01Oct00
01Jan01
01Apr01
01Jul01
01Oct01
01Jan02
01Apr02
01Jul02
01Oct02
01Jan03
01Apr03
01Jul03
01Oct03
01Jan04
01Apr04
UFFICIO ANALISI TECNICA
12500
7500
2500
-2500
TECHNICAL ANALYSIS
Common sense is not so common.
Voltaire
“Technical analysis … has been shown to generate
statistically significant profits, despite its incompatibility
with most economists’ notions of ‘efficient markets’.“
Federal Reserve Bank of New York, C. L. Osler and P.H. Kevin Chang, Staff Report , No. 4,
August 1995
Who are we to argue with the Fed?
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Suggested Bibliography
For a general introduction to Technical Analysis, we would suggest:
Murphy, J. J. , Technical Analysis of The Futures Markets, New York Institute
of Finance, New York, 1986
PAGES: 542; PRICE: USD 70.00
For an in-depth introduction to Japanese Candlesticks, two of the most
diffused reference books are:
Nison, S., Japanese Candlestick Charting Techniques – 2nd edition, New York
Institute of Finance, New York, 2002
PAGES: 300; PRICE: USD 80.00
Morris G. L., Candlestick Charting Explained, McGraw Hill, New York, 1995
PAGES: 300; PRICE: USD 86.00
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Technical Analysis Department
This presentation was given by:
Maurizio Milano, Office Manager, [email protected]
Giorgio Sogliani, [email protected]
The other members of our team:
Romano De Bortoli, Deputy Office Manager , [email protected]
Giuliano Sarricchio, [email protected]
Tel. +39 015 35018047
Free reports available at:
www.sella.it
Page: Analisi&Ricerche
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