CRESCO SPIII Analisi e Simulazione di Reti Tecnologiche Complesse e delle loro Interdipendenze SANDRO BOLOGNA [email protected] CRESCO SPIII Review Meeting Portici, 23 Ottobre, 2006 Esempi di Reti Tecnologiche Complesse – Energia (rete di olio e gas, rete elettrica, …) – Informazione & Comunicazione (reti informatiche e di telecomunicazione – Trasporto (reti stradale, aeree, navali, ferroviarie,….) – Servizi (reti idriche, sanitarie,..) Mutato contesto socioeconomico Financial Services Telecommunication Health Care Public Utilities Infrastrutture verticalmente integrate. Sistemi praticamente autonomi con limitati punti di contatto con le altre infrastrutture Infrastrutture fortemente integrate ed interdipendenti e che si basano su un ambiente condiviso UNION FOR THE CO-ORDINATION OF TRANSMISSION OF ELECTRICITY The UCTE System: 2100 Twh delivered to 400 ML people EUROPE GAS CRISIS WINTER 2006 NETWORK STATE OVERVIEW & ROOT CAUSES Three Layers Model for the Critical Infrastructure Organisational Layer Intra-dependency Cyber Layer Inter-dependency Physical Layer Three Layers Model for the Electrical Infrastructure Electrical Power Operators Independent System Operator for electricity planning and transmission Intra-dependency Inter-dependency Control and supervisory hardware/software components (Scada/EMS systems) Electrical Components Telecomunication Infrastructure generators, transformers, breakers, connecting cables etc National Electrical Power Transmission Infrastructure Foreign Electrical Transmission Infrastructure Oil/Gas Transport System Infrastructure US CANADA BLACK-OUT Power System Outage Task Force Interim Report CRESCO SPIII – Multilayer Modelling Activities Interdependency Model and Simulation all the links with the other nets Organizational Model Organization, operators behaviour Foreign Electrical Transmission Infrastructure Riconfig and Optimiz Model processes and links in the net State Machine Model and Analysis processes and links in the net Telecomunication Infrastructure Topology Model and Analysis nodes and arcs in the net National Electrical Power Transmission Infrastructure Oil/Gas Transport System Infrastructure CRESCO SPIII – Multilayer Modelling Activities Interdependency Model and Simulation all the links with the other nets Organizational Model Organization, operators behaviour Foreign Electrical will make use of the latest resultsTransmission on complex Riconfig and Optimiz Model Infrastructure processes and links in the net systems theory to analyse the network’s property and to understand the emergent behaviors that can take place in the network State Machine Model and Analysis processes and links in the net Telecomunication Infrastructure Topology Model and Analysis nodes and arcs in the net National Electrical Power Transmission Infrastructure Oil/Gas Transport System Infrastructure COMPLEX SYSTEMS APPROACH Recent researches on large-scale networks make evident of some global properties which are not pre-specified by network design and are difficult or impossible to predict from knowledge of its constituent parts. (Barabasi, Strogatz, Watts,…) Poisson distribution Random Network Power-law distribution Scale-free Network Present limitations of Complex Systems approach Network as a static graph Given a network with N nodes and L links Create a graph with statistically identical topology RESULT: model the static network topology PROBLEM: Real networks are dynamical systems! Evolving networks OBJECTIVE: capture the network dynamics METHOD : • identify the processes that contribute to the network topology •develop dynamical models that capture these processes PARTNERS CRESCO SPIII-1 Università degli Studi di Catania, Facoltà di Scienze Matematiche, Fisiche e Naturali, Dipartimento di Fisica ed Astronomia, Prof. Vito Latora CRESCO SPIII – Multilayer Modelling Activities Interdependency Model and Simulation all the links with the other nets Organizational Model Organization, operators behaviour Foreign Electrical Transmission makeModel use of complementary risk assessment Riconfig andwill Optimiz Infrastructure methods to estimate the probability of unwanted processes and links in the net incident that may lead to undesired states State Machine Model and Analysis processes and links in the net Telecomunication Infrastructure Topology Model and Analysis nodes and arcs in the net National Electrical Power Transmission Infrastructure Oil/Gas Transport System Infrastructure Modelling tools for dependability analysis Model checking Bayesian networks Fault Tree Extended Petri Nets PARTNERS CRESCO SPIII-2 Università degli Studi di Lecce, Dipartimento di Matematica, Prof.ssa Paola Vocca Università degli Studi del Piemonte Orientale, Dipartimento di Informatica, Prof. Andrea Bobbio CRESCO SPIII – Multilayer Modelling Activities Interdependency Model and will Simulation make use of analytical approaches to all the links with the other nets optimize the network in the presence of different type of constraints Organizational Model Organization, operators behaviour Foreign Electrical Transmission Infrastructure Riconfig and Optimiz Model processes and links in the net State Machine Model and Analysis processes and links in the net Telecomunication Infrastructure Topology Model and Analysis nodes and arcs in the net National Electrical Power Transmission Infrastructure Oil/Gas Transport System Infrastructure X X RO Distribution Network MI X X TRANSPORTATION NETWORK PARTNERS CRESCO SPIII-3 Università degli Studi di Salerno, Dipartimento di Ingegneria dell'Informazione e Matematica Applicata: Prof. Ciro D’Apice Università degli Studi di Palermo, Dipartimento di Ingegneria Informatica, Prof. Antonio Chella CRESCO SPIII – Multilayer Modelling Activities Interdependency Modelthe organization and the operator will model and Simulation all the links with the other nets behaviour to study organizational vulnerability Organizational Model Organization, operators behaviour Foreign Electrical Transmission Infrastructure Riconfig and Optimiz Model processes and links in the net State Machine Model and Analysis processes and links in the net Telecomunication Infrastructure Topology Model and Analysis nodes and arcs in the net National Electrical Power Transmission Infrastructure Oil/Gas Transport System Infrastructure SOCIO-COGNITIVE ENGINEERING APPROACH: Human Errors Large Complex Critical Infrastructure (LCCI) Human component Cyber component Physical component Organisation Technological Grid Copy rights: High-Intelligence & Decision Research Group, CAMO, ENEA, http://erg4146.casaccia.enea.it Author: Adam Maria Gadomski, 8/10/2003 PARTNERS CRESCO SPIII-4 Università degli Studi di Roma “Tor Vergata”, Dipartimento di Ingegneria dell’Impresa, Prof. Lucio Bianco ECONA - Centro Interuniversitario di Ricerca sull’Elaborazione Cognitiva nei Sistemi Naturali e Artificiali, Prof.ssa Marta Olivetti Belardinelli CRESCO SPIII – will establish probable correlation among different networks to understand cascading Multilayer Modelling Activities failures or unknown and emergent behaviours Interdependency Model and Simulation all the links with the other nets Organizational Model Organization, operators behaviour Foreign Electrical Transmission Infrastructure Riconfig and Optimiz Model processes and links in the net State Machine Model and Analysis processes and links in the net Telecomunication Infrastructure Topology Model and Analysis nodes and arcs in the net National Electrical Power Transmission Infrastructure Oil/Gas Transport System Infrastructure Modelling Networked Infrastructures Interdependencies Fuels, Lubricants Fuel Transport Shipping Fuel for Generators, ,Lubricants SCADA Communications Oil Water for Production Cooling Emission reduction Power for Pump & Lift Stations Control Systems Water Transportation Transportation SCADA Communications Fuel Transport Shipping Fuels, Lubricants Power for pumping Stations, Storage Control Systems Water for Cooling, Emission reduction Power for Signalling, Switchers Electric Power Power for Switchers Fuel for Generators, Heat SCADA Communications Natural Gas Power for compressors Storage, Control Systems Fuel for Generators, Water for Cooling, Telecom SCADA Communications Transportation Source: “Critic. Infrastruct Dependencies” Rinaldi, Peerenboom,Kelly 2002 PARTNERS CRESCO SPIII-5 Università degli Studi di Roma "Tor Vergata", Dipartimento di Informatica, Sistemi e Produzione, Prof. Salvatore Tucci C.R.I.A.I. Consorzio Campano di Ricerca per l’Informatica e l’Automazione Industriale, Prof. Giorgio Ventre Università Campus Bio-medico di Roma, Facoltà di Ingegneria, Prof. Roberto Setola (Università degli Studi del Sannio, Dipartimento di Ingegneria, Prof. Luigi Glielmo) National Infrastructure Simulation and Analysis Center