HyWays
HyWays
Use of COPERT model for
environmental analysis
Antonio Mattucci
ENEA
www.HyWays.de
Riunione COPERT Users – Milano 21 Giugno 2005
Page 1
Summary
HyWays
 HyWays Project
 Aim of environmental analysis
 COPERT description
 Approach for environmental analysis
 Present status and results
 Considerations
www.HyWays.de
Riunione COPERT Users – Milano 21 Giugno 2005
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HyWays Project
HyWays
HyWays is an integrated project, whose aim is to evaluate selected stake-holder
scenarios for future sustainable hydrogen energy systems. This will lead to
recommendations for a European Hydrogen Energy Roadmap, reflecting country specific
aspects in the participating member states.
The Roadmap will consider real life conditions, by taking into account not only
technological but also institutional, geographic and socio/ economic barriers and
opportunities as representative for the different member states.
The Roadmap will describe systematically the future steps to be taken for large-scale
introduction of hydrogen as an energy carrier in the transport and power market and as
storage medium for renewable energy. It will result in an action plan for the
implementation of the hydrogen deployment in Europe, describing at the same time the
effects and impacts of this introduction on the EU economy, society and environment.
The action plan will propose concrete policy measures, priorities in technology
development and train-ing/education.
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HyWays Project
HyWays
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HyWays Project
HyWays
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Riunione COPERT Users – Milano 21 Giugno 2005
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Aim of environmental analysis
HyWays
The environmental analysis looks at the effects on environment, as consequence of
H2 introduction, in terms of both global and local effects.
Global effects are already considered by MARKAL model, which is able able to
calculate CO2 emissions from energy sectors.
Looking at local effects, residential applications can be important and are to be
taken into account for all the places where they have significant impact on
population, but only for MS where this can be important. Such analysis requires a
clear idea of the new energy systems and their territorial localization.
Therefore the most important field where the environmental impact can be evaluated
in a general way is the road transport. Such analysis will be carried out using
COPERT model.
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Riunione COPERT Users – Milano 21 Giugno 2005
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COPERT description
HyWays
COPERT model evaluates the emissions from road transport, considering the
following vehicle categories, reflecting the UN-ECE classification:
 Passenger Cars
 Light Duty Vehicles
 Heavy Duty Vehicles
 Urban Buses & Coaches
 Two Wheelers
M1
N1
N2, N3
M2, M
L1, L2, L3, L4, L5
Pollutant emissions are calculated considering the different legislations that
have imposed specific vehicle emission limits during the last years. To this end
the vehicle population for each of the above category is divided according to the
specific applicable legislations (i.e. pre-EURO, EUROx, etc.).
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COPERT description (2)
HyWays
Data required by COPERT model
Data to be provided as input:
1. Base Fuel Data (overall consumption of the different fuels, in order to check
the adequacy of the results, fuel specifications, etc.)
2. Activity Data (fleet composition, number of vehicles , vehicle mileage, …)
3. Usage Data (speeds and shares in the different domains, etc)
4. Miscellaneous (i.e. monthly temperatures, average daily trip distance,
evaporation data, average load for freight transport, etc.)
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Approach for environmental analysis
Input/output – Framework considerations
HyWays
Many of COPERT inputs are coming from MARKAL results. Among them we can insert the
number of vehicles, organized in categories and types, the annual traveled mileage, the share
of their use in different domains, the fuel consumption, etc.
This doesn’t mean that MARKAL information can be automatically transferred to COPERT, as:
1. The assumptions made under the two models are different; therefore a simple
association of MARKAL values to similar COPERT structures is normally inadequate, as
often there is neither a mutual complete overlapping, nor any easy formal way to
modify MARKAL data to fit the COPERT schematisation in all the cases
2. MARKAL data are typically cumulative values averaged in a decade and their distribution
to the many vehicle technologies considered in COPERT for the same category can
hardly be schematized in a clear and consistent way for all the vehicles
3. COPERT, as it is normally used to calculate road transport emission inventory, imposes
a consistency check on the overall fuel consumption, comparing the fuel result with total
fuel sold in the MS, to qualify the emission calculation, but this requires real data on fuel
and fleet composition, instead of PRIMES forecasts.
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Approach for environmental analysis (2)
Input/output – Framework considerations
HyWays
COPERT needs other inputs in addition to MARKAL results, in particular the
number of vehicles belonging to the technologies that are applicable to each
specific vehicle category, and this is required for each country.
Therefore a model, able to determine year by year the relative share of the
technologies for each vehicle type in the fleet for the time span from 2000 to 2050,
has been developed.
To this end a synergy has been activated with TREMOVE DB that provides the
information, country by country, on the original fleet composition in a way
consistent with COPERT, together with the theoretical information to extend the
vehicle fleet forecast. In fact a forecast model is required, as the data provided by
TREMOVE DB cover only a time span up to 2020, while under HyWays the
timeframe is to be extended to 2050.
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Approach for environmental analysis (3)
HyWays
Input/output – Framework considerations
Using TREMOVE database, for each class of vehicles, through the selection of
related data (vehicle type, technology and year), it is possible to build the curves
of vehicle survival probability to be used to make the fleet forecast. Such
functions are specific for the different categories of vehicles (passenger cars,
LDVs, buses, etc.) and are also determined for each Member State on the basis of
statistical information.
The survival probability trends are held constant during the forecast period and
for all the technologies belonging to the same vehicle category.
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Approach for environmental analysis (4)
HyWays
Survival probability functions
Italy
1,2
1
probability
0,8
Busses
Cars
Heavy duty vehicles
Light duty vehicles
0,6
Motorcycles
0,4
0,2
0
0
1
www.HyWays.de
2
3
4
5
6
7
8
9 10 11 12 13 14 15 16 17 18 19 20 21 22 23 24 25 26 27 28 29 30
age
Riunione COPERT Users – Milano 21 Giugno 2005
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Approach for environmental analysis (5)
Germany
HyWays
Survival probability functions
1,2
1
probability
0,8
Busses
Cars
0,6
Heavy duty vehicles
Light duty vehicles
Motorcycles
0,4
0,2
0
0
1
2
3
4
5
6
7
8
9
10
11
12
13
14
15
16
17
18
19
20
21
22
23
24
25
26
27
28
29
30
age
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Present status and results
HyWays
The results provided by COPERT runs have been discussed with the other Project partners in
the general meeting held in April at Munich. Presently it is under execution a second run of
the models. In any case the following additional assumptions/positions are considered for
COPERT analysis:





for the reference year (2000) COPERT model has been made consistent with country
statistics in road transport consumption of fuels and with MS vehicle fleet statistics; the
parameters (share, speed, etc.) are not changed for all the forecasts
two new EURO legislations (V and VI) have been considered in the model (through direct
modification of the ACCESS database), with changes on pollutant limits (EURO V) and
in fuel consumption for both of them (i.e. as result of Voluntary Agreements between car
manufacturers and EC)
for hydrogen, due to lack of information on specific emissions (mainly NOx for ICE
vehicles), no pollutant emission has been considered
the new limits on fuel content of SO2 for 2010 have been also introduced
the COPERT vehicle population fits the results provided by MARKAL outputs
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Preliminary results (IT baseline)
HyWays
Vehicle population
35000000
30000000
no. of vehicles
25000000
Passenger Cars
Light Duty Vehicles
Heavy Duty Vehicles
Buses
Motorcycles
20000000
15000000
10000000
5000000
0
Year 2000
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Year 2010
Year 2020
Year 2030
Year 2040
Year 2050
years
Riunione COPERT Users – Milano 21 Giugno 2005
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Preliminary results (IT baseline)
HyWays
CO emissions
4500000
4000000
3500000
tons
3000000
CO urban
CO extra-urban
CO highways
CO total
2500000
2000000
1500000
1000000
500000
0
Year 2000
www.HyWays.de
Year 2010
Year 2020
Year 2030
Year 2040
Year 2050
years
Riunione COPERT Users – Milano 21 Giugno 2005
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Preliminary results (IT baseline)
HyWays
VOC emissions
600000
500000
tons
400000
URBAN
EXTRA_URBAN
HIGHWAY
TOTAL
300000
200000
100000
0
Year 2000
www.HyWays.de
Year 2010
Year 2020
Year 2030
Year 2040
Year 2050
years
Riunione COPERT Users – Milano 21 Giugno 2005
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Preliminary results (IT baseline)
HyWays
NOx emissions
800000
700000
600000
tons
500000
URBAN
EXTRA_URBAN
HIGHWAY
TOTAL
400000
300000
200000
100000
0
Year 2000
www.HyWays.de
Year 2010
Year 2020
Year 2030
Year 2040
Year 2050
years
Riunione COPERT Users – Milano 21 Giugno 2005
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Preliminary results (IT baseline)
HyWays
PM emissions
45000
40000
35000
tons
30000
URBAN
EXTRA_URBAN
HIGHWAY
TOTAL
25000
20000
15000
10000
5000
0
Year 2000
www.HyWays.de
Year 2010
Year 2020
Year 2030
Year 2040
Year 2050
years
Riunione COPERT Users – Milano 21 Giugno 2005
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Preliminary results (IT baseline)
HyWays
Fuel consumption
45000000
40000000
35000000
tons
30000000
URBAN
EXTRA_URBAN
HIGHWAY
TOTAL
25000000
20000000
15000000
10000000
5000000
0
Year 2000
www.HyWays.de
Year 2010
Year 2020
Year 2030
Year 2040
Year 2050
years
Riunione COPERT Users – Milano 21 Giugno 2005
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Preliminary results (IT baseline)
HyWays
CO2 emissions
140000000
120000000
100000000
80000000
tons
URBAN
EXTRA_URBAN
HIGHWAY
TOTAL
60000000
40000000
20000000
0
Year 2000
www.HyWays.de
Year 2010
Year 2020
Year 2030
Year 2040
Year 2050
years
Riunione COPERT Users – Milano 21 Giugno 2005
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Preliminary results (Hydrogen scenario Low - DE)
HyWays
CO emission reduction
120,0%
100,0%
%
80,0%
CO urban
CO extra-urban
CO highway
CO total
60,0%
40,0%
20,0%
0,0%
Year 2000
www.HyWays.de
Year 2010
Year 2020
Year 2030
Year 2040
Year 2050
years
Riunione COPERT Users – Milano 21 Giugno 2005
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Preliminary results (Hydrogen scenario Low - DE)
HyWays
NOx emission reduction
120,0%
100,0%
80,0%
%
NOx urban
NOx extra-urban
NOx highway
NOx total
60,0%
40,0%
20,0%
0,0%
Year 2000
Year 2010
Year 2020 years
Year 2030
Year 2040
Year 2050
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Riunione COPERT Users – Milano 21 Giugno 2005
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Preliminary results (Hydrogen scenario Low - DE)
HyWays
PM emissions
120,0%
100,0%
%
80,0%
PM urban
PM extraurban
PM highway
PM total
60,0%
40,0%
20,0%
0,0%
Year 2000
www.HyWays.de
Year 2010
Year 2020
Year 2030
Year 2040
Year 2050
years
Riunione COPERT Users – Milano 21 Giugno 2005
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Preliminary results (Hydrogen scenario Low - DE)
HyWays
VOC emission
120,0%
100,0%
%
80,0%
VOC urban
VOC extraurban
VOC highway
VOC total
60,0%
40,0%
20,0%
0,0%
Year 2000
www.HyWays.de
Year 2010
Year 2020
Year 2030
Year 2040
Year 2050
years
Riunione COPERT Users – Milano 21 Giugno 2005
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Preliminary results (Hydrogen High – MS cumulative)
HyWays
CO emissions
100,0%
90,0%
80,0%
70,0%
60,0%
50,0%
40,0%
30,0%
20,0%
%
FR
DE
GR
IT
NL
NO
Year 2040
Year 2030
Year 2020
Year 2050
www.HyWays.de
0,0%
Year 2010
years
Year 2000
10,0%
FR
DE
GR
IT
NL
NO
Countries
Riunione COPERT Users – Milano 21 Giugno 2005
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Preliminary results (Hydrogen High – MS cumulative)
HyWays
NOx emissions
100,0%
90,0%
80,0%
70,0%
60,0%
50,0%
40,0%
30,0%
20,0%
%
FR
DE
GR
IT
NL
NO
Year 2040
Year 2030
Year 2020
Year 2050
www.HyWays.de
0,0%
Year 2010
years
Year 2000
10,0%
FR
DE
GR
IT
NL
NO
Countries
Riunione COPERT Users – Milano 21 Giugno 2005
Page 27
Preliminary results (Hydrogen High – MS cumulative)
HyWays
VOC emissions
100,0%
90,0%
80,0%
70,0%
60,0%
50,0%
40,0%
30,0%
20,0%
%
FR
DE
GR
IT
NL
NO
Year 2040
Year 2030
Year 2020
Year 2050
www.HyWays.de
0,0%
Year 2010
years
Year 2000
10,0%
FR
DE
GR
IT
NL
NO
Countries
Riunione COPERT Users – Milano 21 Giugno 2005
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Preliminary results (Hydrogen High – MS cumulative)
HyWays
PM emissions
100,0%
90,0%
80,0%
70,0%
60,0%
50,0%
40,0%
30,0%
20,0%
%
FR
DE
GR
IT
NL
NO
Year 2040
Year 2030
Year 2020
Year 2050
www.HyWays.de
0,0%
Year 2010
years
Year 2000
10,0%
FR
DE
GR
IT
NL
NO
Countries
Riunione COPERT Users – Milano 21 Giugno 2005
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Preliminary results (Hydrogen High – MS cumulative)
Fuel consumption
HyWays
100,0%
90,0%
80,0%
70,0%
60,0%
50,0%
40,0%
30,0%
20,0%
%
FR
DE
GR
IT
NL
NO
Year 2040
Year 2030
Year 2020
Year 2050
www.HyWays.de
0,0%
Year 2010
years
Year 2000
10,0%
FR
DE
GR
IT
NL
NO
Countries
Riunione COPERT Users – Milano 21 Giugno 2005
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Considerations
HyWays
For all the MS the introduction of hydrogen vehicles provides
interesting benefits, at least for the regulated emissions. For the
other emissions the analysis has not yet been done.
Due to the larger initial penetration of hydrogen vehicles, the most
consistent effects are detected in the urban domains, while in the
highways the effects are of lower, as trucks are not converted and
this keeps high the pollutant emissions.
Looking at the two H2 scenarios, the effects are quite different at
2050; from the point of view of the emission the “low” scenario can
be considered as delayed of 10-15 years respect to the “high” one.
Of course, the main driving factor for pollutant emission reduction
is the number of vehicles, as H2 is almost emission free.
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