Bill Bakun
USGS -Menlo Park
Towards a United States
Earthquake Catalogue
Why didn’t we do this 10 years ago?
Why not start now with California?
Nuovi dati macrosismici e loro utilizzo
Bologna, 23 giugno 2008
Three Parts
Historical, Instrumental,Future Events
 Same attributes, different rules
 Can be stitched together
Nuovi dati macrosismici e loro utilizzo
Bologna, 23 giugno 2008
Status Quo
Many countries have national earthquake catalogs
 Basis for important products
USA has no national catalog
 Every probability report, every
national ground motion map
redefines the catalog
 Waste of Time
 Inconsistent Products
Nuovi dati macrosismici e loro utilizzo
Bologna, 23 giugno 2008
A European Historical Earthquake Catalog
Root
RL
Nmdp
Ix
Year
1
7
1578
Mo
Da
Ho
Lat
Lon
Io
Mw
SCIACCA
37.508
13.083
7
5.17
Vrancea
45.700
26.600
6.50
5.00
Ax
Barbano et al., 1996
11
Purcaru, 1979
22
1578
04
01
Sieberg, 1940b
22
1578
04
27
11
GERA
50.880
12.230
SisFrance, 2009
12
3
4
1578
05
20
16
BAS-PLATEAUX DAUPHINOIS
45.583
5.350
6-7
Martinez S. & M., 2002
13
1
8
1578
10
21
04
Melilla
35.267
-2.933
8
SisFrance, 2009
12
20
7
1579
01
26
06
MARCHE-BOISCHAUT ?
46.583
2.000
7-8
Martinez S. & M., 2002
13
1
7
1579
01
30
Lorca.MU
37.683
-1.700
7
Kouskouna et al., 1998
11
10
8
1580
Myonia
38.450
22.310
9
Musson, 2008
11
91 7-8
DOVER STRAITS
51.000
1.660
Musson, 2008
11
Réthly, 1952
1580
04
06
1580
05
01
DOVER STRAITS
51.000
1.660
22
1580
11
03
TRANSYLVANIA
46.500
24.000
Réthly, 1952
22
1580
12
24
TRANSYLVANIA
46.500
24.000
Van Beurden, 1890
22
1581
03
10
BOXMEER
51.600
5.900
Martinez S. & M., 2002
13
2
1581
06
18
Málaga
36.717
-4.417
Martinez S. & M., 2002
13
1 6-7
1582
Alcalá la Real
37.467
-3.933
Arch.Mac.GNDT, 1995
11
1 7-8
1582
POZZUOLI
40.822
14.123
7
F
7
05
18
?
07
6.80
5.46
3.92
7
7
4.30
7
7-8
7-8
5.37
earthquake
parameters
Nuovi dati macrosismici e loro utilizzo
Bologna, 23 giugno 2008
An Example from Europe: varied alternatives and results
Event
Root
Martinez S. & M.,
2002
MDP
compilation
Method
Calibration
Lat, Lon
Mw
Boxer i
NA4
37.106, -7.873
5.74 ± 0.50
Ic2
27/12/1722
Algarve
Nuovi dati macrosismici e loro utilizzo
Bologna, 23 giugno 2008
Earthquake parameters from MDPs: varied alternatives and results
Event
Root
Martinez S. & M.,
2002
MDP
compilation
Method
Calibration
Lat, Lon
Mw
Boxer i
NA4
37.106, -7.873
5.74 ± 0.50
Boxer n
NA4
37.106, -7.873
5.40 ± 0.23
NA4
37.117, -7.738
6.81 ± 0.50
Literature
37.171, -7.774
6.41 ±0.50
California
37.153, -7.765
6.59 ±0.50
NA4
36.979, -7.675
5.60
Ic2
B&W
MEEP
27/12/1722
Algarve
Nuovi dati macrosismici e loro utilizzo
Bologna, 23 giugno 2008
Earthquake parameters from MDPs: varied alternatives and results
Event
Root
Martinez S. & M.,
2002
MDP
compilation
Calibration
Lat, Lon
Mw
Boxer i
NA4
37.106, -7.873
5.74 ± 0.50
Boxer n
NA4
37.106, -7.873
5.40 ± 0.23
NA4
37.117, -7.738
6.81 ± 0.50
Literature
37.171, -7.774
6.41 ±0.50
California
37.153, -7.765
6.59 ±0.50
MEEP
NA4
36.979, -7.675
5.60
Boxer i
NA4
37.106, -7.873
6.27 ±0.35
Boxer n
NA4
37.106, -7.873
5.97 ±0.01
B&W
NA4
37.108, -7.837
6.38 ±0.50
MEEP
NA4
37.074, -7.757
6.00 ±0.20
Ic2
B&W
27/12/1722
Algarve
Baptista et al.,
2007
Method
Ic2
Nuovi dati macrosismici e loro utilizzo
Bologna, 23 giugno 2008
Earthquake parameters from MDPs: varied alternatives and results
Event
Root
Martinez S. & M.,
2002
MDP
compilation
Martinez S. & M.,
2002
Calibration
Lat, Lon
Mw
Boxer i
NA4
37.106, -7.873
5.74 ± 0.50
Boxer n
NA4
37.106, -7.873
5.40 ± 0.23
NA4
37.117, -7.738
6.81 ± 0.50
Literature
37.171, -7.774
6.41 ±0.50
California
37.153, -7.765
6.59 ±0.50
MEEP
NA4
36.979, -7.675
5.60
Boxer i
NA4
37.106, -7.873
6.27 ±0.35
Boxer n
NA4
37.106, -7.873
5.97 ±0.01
B&W
NA4
37.108, -7.837
6.38 ±0.50
MEEP
NA4
37.074, -7.757
6.00 ±0.20
Mw = f (Io)?
Iberian catalog
36.400, -7.767
6.50
Ic2
B&W
27/12/1722
Algarve
Baptista et al.,
2007
Method
Ic2
Nuovi dati macrosismici e loro utilizzo
Bologna, 23 giugno 2008
Earthquake parameters from MDPs: alternative methods and results
Event
Root
Martinez S. & M.,
2002
MDP
compilation
Martinez S. & M.,
2002
Calibration
Lat, Lon
Mw
Boxer i
NA4
37.106, -7.873
5.74 ± 0.50
Boxer n
NA4
37.106, -7.873
5.40 ± 0.23
NA4
37.117, -7.738
6.81 ± 0.50
Literature
37.171, -7.774
6.41 ±0.50
California
37.153, -7.765
6.59 ±0.50
MEEP
NA4
36.979, -7.675
5.60
Boxer i
NA4
37.106, -7.873
6.27 ±0.35
Boxer n
NA4
37.106, -7.873
5.97 ±0.01
B&W
NA4
37.108, -7.837
6.38 ±0.50
MEEP
NA4
37.074, -7.757
6.00 ±0.20
Mw = f (Io)?
Iberian catalog
36.400, -7.767
6.50
Vilanova & Fo., 2007
37.170, -7.580
6.90
Ic2
B&W
27/12/1722
Algarve
Baptista et al.,
2007
Method
Ic2
?
Nuovi dati macrosismici e loro utilizzo
Bologna, 23 giugno 2008
Earthquake parameters from MDPs: alternative methods and results
Event
Root
MDP
compilation
Method
Calibration
Lat, Lon
Mw
Boxer i
NA4
37.106, -7.873
5.74 ± 0.50
37.106, -7.873
5.40 ± 0.23
37.117, -7.738
6.81 ± 0.50
Literature
37.171, -7.774
6.41 ±0.50
California
37.153, -7.765
6.59 ±0.50
MEEP
NA4
36.979, -7.675
5.60
Boxer i
NA4
37.106, -7.873
6.27 ±0.35
Boxer n
NA4
37.106, -7.873
5.97 ±0.01
B&W
NA4
37.108, -7.837
6.38 ±0.50
MEEP
NA4
37.074, -7.757
6.00 ±0.20
Mw = f (Io)?
Iberian catalog
36.400, -7.767
6.50
?
Vilanova & Fo., 2007
37.170, -7.580
6.90
Tectonic
Baptista et al., 2007
37.017, -7.817
6.50
Phase 1: Compile
for each NA4
event
Boxer n
Martinez S. & M.,
2002
Ic2Use undergrads, internsNA4
B&W
 Review, revise
27/12/1722
Algarve
Baptista et al.,
2007
Martinez S. & M.,
2002
Ic2
Nuovi dati macrosismici e loro utilizzo
Bologna, 23 giugno 2008
Earthquake parameters from MDPs: alternative methods and results
Event
Root
MDP
compilation
Method
Calibration
Lat, Lon
Mw
Boxer i
NA4
37.106, -7.873
5.74 ± 0.50
37.106, -7.873
5.40 ± 0.23
37.117, -7.738
6.81 ± 0.50
Literature
37.171, -7.774
6.41 ±0.50
California
37.153, -7.765
6.59 ±0.50
MEEP
NA4
36.979, -7.675
5.60
Boxer i
NA4
37.106, -7.873
6.27 ±0.35
Boxer n
NA4
37.106, -7.873
5.97 ±0.01
37.108, -7.837
6.38 ±0.50
37.074, -7.757
6.00 ±0.20
Iberian catalog
36.400, -7.767
6.50
?
Vilanova & Fo., 2007
37.170, -7.580
6.90
Tectonic
Baptista et al., 2007
37.017, -7.817
6.50
Phase 1: Compile
for each NA4
event
Boxer n
Martinez S. & M.,
2002
Ic2Use undergrads, internsNA4
B&W
 Review, revise
27/12/1722
Algarve
Baptista et al.,
2007
Phase 2:ExpertB&WPanel selects
NA4
MEEPand WHY!
NA4
Preferred Path
Martinez S. & M.,
2002
Ic2
Mw = f (Io)?
Nuovi dati macrosismici e loro utilizzo
Bologna, 23 giugno 2008
Stakeholders
 Experts: All Views Represented
 Users: Mark Peterson, Ned Field
 $$$: NRC, COE, PG&E
 Enforcers: Management
Nuovi dati macrosismici e loro utilizzo
Bologna, 23 giugno 2008
Catalog Attributes:
• A Unified Archive (Distributed?)
• Accessible-to-All On Line
• Include Parameters (and uncertainties) for All
Significant Historical and Instrumental earthquakes
• Include Data Roots, alternative solutions
• Supported by all stakeholders
(NEHRP,USGS, SCEC, etc.)
• Basis for all US earthquake hazard products
Nuovi dati macrosismici e loro utilizzo
Bologna, 23 giugno 2008
Earthquake parameters from MDPs: alternative methods and results
Event
Root
MDP
compilation
Method
Calibration
Lat, Lon
Mw
Boxer i
NA4
37.106, -7.873
5.74 ± 0.50
37.106, -7.873
5.40 ± 0.23
37.117, -7.738
6.81 ± 0.50
Literature
37.171, -7.774
6.41 ±0.50
California
37.153, -7.765
6.59 ±0.50
MEEP
NA4
36.979, -7.675
5.60
Boxer i
NA4
37.106, -7.873
6.27 ±0.35
Boxer n
NA4
37.106, -7.873
5.97 ±0.01
37.108, -7.837
6.38 ±0.50
37.074, -7.757
6.00 ±0.20
Iberian catalog
36.400, -7.767
6.50
?
Vilanova & Fo., 2007
37.170, -7.580
6.90
Tectonic
Baptista et al., 2007
37.017, -7.817
6.50
Phase 1: Compile
for each NA4
event
Boxer n
Martinez S. & M.,
2002
Ic2Use undergrads, internsNA4
B&W
 Review, revise
27/12/1722
Algarve
Baptista et al.,
2007
Phase 2:ExpertB&WPanel selects
NA4
MEEPand WHY!
NA4
Preferred Path
Martinez S. & M.,
2002
Ic2
Mw = f (Io)?
Nuovi dati macrosismici e loro utilizzo
Bologna, 23 giugno 2008
Nuovi dati macrosismici e loro utilizzo
Bologna, 23 giugno 2008
Nuovi dati macrosismici e loro utilizzo
Bologna, 23 giugno 2008
• The Easy Part: Instrumental List
– Pointers to related Intensity Data
• The Hard Part: Pre-Instrumental List
– Historical earthquakes
– -Paleoseismic events
Nuovi dati macrosismici e loro utilizzo
Bologna, 23 giugno 2008
•Instrumental Side: More to Do
• Explain
Puzzling Magnitudes
•1949 Puget Sound
•1989 Loma Prieta
Nuovi dati macrosismici e loro utilizzo
Bologna, 23 giugno 2008
Historical Earthquakes
• Build on the European experience
Nuovi dati macrosismici e loro utilizzo
Bologna, 23 giugno 2008
The Really Hard Part
• Controversial Historical Earthquakes
– Different compilations of data
– Different Analyses
– Different Locations or Magnitudes
Nuovi dati macrosismici e loro utilizzo
Bologna, 23 giugno 2008
US Complexity Counterparts?
Historical?
• 1811-1812 New Madrid
•Where?
• Magnitude?
Instrumental?
• 1906 San Francisco
• 3 Published Epicenters?
• 3 Published Magnitudes?
Nuovi dati macrosismici e loro utilizzo
Bologna, 23 giugno 2008
Historical Earthquakes:
• Build List of Historical Earthquakes (100? M > 5 1/2 events)
• Construct Roots
• Empanel experts to select preferred solutions
• Management to Maintain and Support the catalog
•Do ii now!
•GEM will build and maintain the archive and internet interface
Nuovi dati macrosismici e loro utilizzo
Bologna, 23 giugno 2008