COSMO-LEPS verification
SON 2004 precipitation
new suite
Chiara Marsigli ARPA-SIM – WG4
The COSMO-LEPS suite since June 2004
d
d-1
d+1
d+2
middle EPS
00
d+3
d+4
d+5
4 variables
ZUVQ
3 levels
500 700 850 hPa
Cluster Analysis and RM identification
youngest EPS
12
COSMOLEPS
clusterin
g area
2
time
steps
European
area
Complete
Linkage
COSMOLEPS
Integratio
n Domain
• 10 km
• 32 layers
• 10 members
• 120 h
COSMO stations
Verification grid
Verification of the distributions
The verification has been made in terms of:
• Average value
• Maximum value
• 50th percentile (Median)
• 90th percentile
Station observation
Grid point forecast
in a box
Average values
tp > 10mm/24h
boxes 1.5x1.5 deg
tp > 10mm/24h
tp > 20mm/24h
tp > 20mm/24h
tp > 30mm/24h
COSMO-LEPS
10-MEMBER EPS
Average values
boxes 1.5x1.5 deg
COSMO-LEPS
10-MEMBER EPS
50th percentile values
tp > 10mm/24h
boxes 1.5x1.5 deg
tp > 10mm/24h
tp > 20mm/24h
tp > 20mm/24h
tp > 30mm/24h
COSMO-LEPS
10-MEMBER EPS
50th percentile values
boxes 1.5x1.5 deg
COSMO-LEPS
10-MEMBER EPS
90th percentile values
tp > 10mm/24h
boxes 1.5x1.5 deg
tp > 10mm/24h
tp > 20mm/24h
tp > 20mm/24h
tp > 30mm/24h
COSMO-LEPS
10-MEMBER EPS
90th percentile values
boxes 1.5x1.5 deg
COSMO-LEPS
10-MEMBER EPS
Maximum values
tp > 10mm/24h
boxes 1.5x1.5 deg
tp > 10mm/24h
tp > 20mm/24h
tp > 20mm/24h
tp > 30mm/24h
COSMO-LEPS
10-MEMBER EPS
Maximum values
boxes 1.5x1.5 deg
COSMO-LEPS
10-MEMBER EPS
FINE
C’era un errore sui dati polacchi (dati mancanti in
un formato non previsto), l’ho corretto ed ho
ricalcolato gli scores del valore medio per COSMOLEPS e per EPS-10RM. Seguono I risultati per
vedere l’impatto.
Average values
boxes 1.5x1.5 deg
Con errore dati mancanti Polonia
tp > 10mm/24h
tp > 20mm/24h
COSMO-LEPS
10-MEMBER EPS
Senza errore dati mancanti Polonia
tp > 10mm/24h
tp > 20mm/24h
Average values
boxes 1.5x1.5 deg
COSMO-LEPS
10-MEMBER EPS
Con errore dati mancanti Polonia
Senza errore dati mancanti Polonia
tp > 10mm/24h
tp > 10mm/24h
tp > 20mm/24h
tp > 20mm/24h
Average values
boxes 1.5x1.5 deg
Con errore dati mancanti Polonia
tp > 30mm/24h
COSMO-LEPS
10-MEMBER EPS
Senza errore dati mancanti Polonia
tp > 30mm/24h
N.B.: senza errore sui dati gli scores del valore
medio (gli unici ricalcolati) complessivamente
migliorano un po’, per entrambi i sistemi. La
differenza di score tra i due sistemi rimane pero’
generalemente la stessa (aumenta un po’ per la
ROC area a 30 mm)
Average and maxima
Average and maxima