European Lakes Under Environmental Stressors Supporting lake governance to mitigate the impact of climate change Nicola Gallinaro Riva del Garda, September 8th 2011 Outline Definizioni e termini chiave Key terms Global figures Contenuti according to EULAKES project Considerazioni generali Il progetto CLIMATE “average weather” described in terms of the mean and variability of relevant variables over a 30year period CLIMA “tempo medio” descritto in termini di media e variabilità di variabili rilevanti in un periodo superiore ai 30 anni definitions according to the IPCC CLIMATE CHANGE Statistically significant variation in either the mean state of the climate or in its variability, persisting for an extended period (decades or longer) CAMBIAMENTO CLIMATICO Variazione statisticamente significativa dello stato medio del clima o della sua variabilità, persistente per un periodo esteso di tempo (decenni o più) Climate change may be due to natural internal processes, external forcing, or to persistent anthropogenic changes in the composition of atmosphere or in land use CLIMATE PROJECTION A potential future evolution of the climate Proiezione climatica Potenziale futura evoluzione del clima According to IPCC Is not a prediction or forecast, is one of many plausibile future states Based on scenarios of future socio economics and technological development that may or may not be realized ADAPTATION Adjustment in natural or human systems to a new or changing climatic environment, whether in response to actual or expected climate change, which moderates harm or exploits beneficial opportunities Adattamento Aggiustamenti nei sistemi naturali o umani a nuove condizioni climatiche, per moderare i danni o per accresce le opportunità, in risposta ad effettivi o attesi cambiamenti climatici According to IPCC Can be anticipatory or reactive, private or public GLOBAL CLIMATE (Change) FIGURES “Warming of the climate is unequivocal, as is now evident from observations of increases in global average air and ocean temperatures, widespread melting of snow and ice, and rising global mean sea level." Intergovernmental Panel on Climate change (IPCC), Summary for Policymakers, Feb. 2007 Il riscaldamento climatico è inequivocabile, essendo ora evidente dalle osservazioni sull’incremento della temperatura media dell’aria e degli oceani, lo scioglimento di nevi e ghiacciai e dall’innalzamento medio del livello del mare. Temperature trend Precipitation trend OTHER GENERAL IMPACTS Very likely heat waves and heavy precipitation will continue to become more frequent High confidence (8/10 chance) of • Warming of lakes and rivers • Earlier occurrence of spring time events • Poleward and upward shifts in plant and animal ranges Molto probabilmente ondate di calore e forti precipitazioni diventeranno più frequenti (eventi estremi) E’ ipotizzabile (8/10): • Riscaldamento di laghi e fiumi •Anticipo degli eventi primaverili •Spostamento verso i poli e verso quote maggiori degli areali di specie animali e vegetali THE PROJECT VISION A CALL TO ACTION a coordinating platform for enhancing the value of lakes and basins environmental governance in a climate change environment La visione progettuale Un richiamo all’agire Una piattaforma di ccordinamento per innalzare l’afficacia della governance ambientale dei bacini lacustri in un contesto di cambiamento climatico CLIMATE CHANGE AND LAKE BASINS European Lakes are going to face environmental problems related to climate change I bacini lacustri europei potrebbero essere progressivamente interessati da problemi ambientali legati ai Climate change looms as an additional threat on the regions economy and ecology by changing climate patterns and compounding the negative effects of Il cambiamento climatico incombe come un’ulteriore minaccia sull’economia regionale e sugli equilibri ecologici sommandosi all’effetto degli attuali current environmental problems problemi ambientali cambiamenti climatici The EULAKES network Lake Charzykowskie 53° 46’ N 17° 30’ E altitude: 120 m a.s.l. max. depth: 30.5 m mean depth: 9.8 m area = 13 km2 volume = 0.13 km3 CENTRAL EUROPE REGIONS 47° 38’ N 16° 41 E altitude: 115 m a.s.l. max. depth: 2.2 m mean depth: 0.8 m area = 178 km2 volume = 0.25 km3 PL A Lake Neusiedler H Lake Garda 45° 42’ N 10° 43’ E altitude: 65 m a.s.l. max. depth: 350 m mean depth: 133 m area = 368 km2 volume = 49.03 km3 I Lake Balaton 46° 50’ N 17° 44 E altitude: 105 m a.s.l. max. depth: 12.2 m mean depth: 3.1 m area = 593 km2 volume = 1.90 km3 THE PARTNERSHIP PL A I H PROJECT VISION A CALL TO ACTION Lake Lake Lake Lake Garda, Balaton, Neusiedler Charzykowskie have unique landscape and great biodiversity. At the same time the economics of the places are highly dependent from Recreation and Tourism. PROJECT GENERAL OBJECTIVES Understanding and responding to climate change represents one of the more important, complex and challenging issues facing the sustainable managemement of lake basin. Conoscere e e rispondere al cambiamenti climatici è una delle più importanti e complesse sfide a cui deve fare fronte la gestione sostenibile dei bacini lacustri. PROJECT To achieve the generalGENERAL objectives, theOBJECTIVES project will: (i) support the development and implementation of long-term ecological researches (ii) Integrating scientifical knowledges in lake planning and management in order to enhance ecological approaches, mitigation and adaptation capability, (ii) promote the sustainable management of the lakes natural resources through innovative multi-stakeholder platforms (iii) build awareness among local communities and different sectors of the local economics; (iv) improve collaboration among Central European lake regions PROJECT SPECIFIC OBJECTIVES The specific project objectives are focus on the following key issues: - Vulnerability assessment with regard to climate change and other environmental stressors (identification of key environmental stressors and risks) - Mitigation and adaptation strategies to support decision makers and basin planning (analysis of existing lake management plans and strategies - Development of a catalogue of potential mitigation and adaptation measures - Integration of methods and experience at local and European scale; - Local pilot actions - Environmental governance - Communication and dissemination THE PROJECT ACTIONS The technical and scientifical WORKPACKAGES (WP) IMPLEMENTATION OF EXISTING MONITORING SYSTEMS Miglioramento dei sistemi di monitoraggio. Developing new approaches to evaluate lake status in a changing environment Main contents: •LAKE ECOLOGICAL HISTORY CHARACTERISATION Caratterizzazione del passato ecologico dei laghi definition of natural ecological status, reference conditions before human impacts and restoration targets for each lake studied describing secular scale history under environmental changing conditions) •SURVEY OF EXISTING MONITORING SYSTEMS Analisi dei sistemi di monitoraggio. •DEVELOPMENT AND APPLICATION OF A SET OF TOOLS: EULAKES MODEL Sviluppo ed applicazione di un set di applicativi: EULAKES. EULAKES MODEL A WEB GIS tool to facilitate analysis and visualisation of data and information The scientific innovation as immediate support to a conscious territorial planning: the definition of joint tools of research and monitoring is useful to face common problems VULNERABILITY AND RISK ASSESSMENT Improving understanding of integrated vulnerability of lake ecosystems Main contents: • VULNERABILITY ASSESSMENT Identification and assesment of main stressors and potential impacts. Creation of vulnerability and risk maps for the partner lake regiuons • EMERGING RISK Impacts on lake idrology and water quality, analisys of new invasive species, describe shore zone functionality status using SFI index Valutazione della vulnerabilità Analisi dei principali fattori di rischio VULNERABILITY AND RISK ASSESSMENT (second part) Main contents: • CLIMATE CHANGE SCENARIOS SIMULATION AND EXPLORATION Climate simulations runs for the alpine area with CLM )10 km grid-spacing). Calculation of CC • SCENARIO IMPACT ASSESSMENT AND ADAPTATION/MITIGATION STRATEGIES Scenari di cambiamento climatico simulazione ed esplorazione Valutazione degli scenari di impatto e delle strategie di adattamento e mitigazione Impacts of climate changes scenarios, mitigation and adaptation measures and strategies, multicriteria (environmental, economic, social, etc,) assesment, defining the environmental impact of different scenarios Maps of simulation on climate changing and state of water PILOT ACTIONS Using advanced case studies to support the definition of the common approach • The role of agriculture in a climate change scenarius (A) Il ruolo dell’agricoltura • Status and future dynamics of new species (H) Status e dinamiche delle nuove specie • Cyanobacteria and water quality: the effects on tourism and potable water (I) Cianobatteri e qualità dell’acqua • Sludge permeable and heavy metals (PL) Fanghi permeabili e metalli pesanti Enhancing the differences in every lake to agree on a common transnational approach for protection The GOVERNANCE WP JOINT TRANSNATIONAL STRATEGY DEVELOPMENT A NEW MODEL OF ENVIRONMENTAL GOVERNANCE (WP6) Mitigation and adaptation strategy to support decision makers and environmental governance Main contents: • Development of guidelines for lake and basin management Sviluppo di linee guida per la gestione dei laghi e dei bacini • Building and management governance platform (stakeholder participation) Costruzione e gestione di una piattaforma di governance A platform at local and international level based on innovative and European governance models The EULAKES path Increasing utility Decision Knowledge and understanding Information Data Increasing resources and knowledge requirements The WHO and WHY of EULAKES USERS/STAKEHOLDERS - Research scientist - Resources managers – environmental agengies at all levels - Non governamental organizations - Students and young generations - General pubblic RESOURCES TO PROTECT • Living resources (biodiversity) • Human health • Habitat protection/preservation • Chemical integrity • Local economy (mainly based on tourism and The WHAT of EULAKES - Ecological and human health effects of persistent toxic chemicals - Non indigenous species invasions, spread, and ecosystems effects; - Shorezones quantity and quality protection - protection of drinking water intakes from chemical and microbiological contamination - Eutrophication FUNDING •Project funded by the European Territorial Cooperation Central Europe programme •Budget: 2.910.799 euro •Period: 1st April 2010 – 31st March 2013 •9 partners from 4 countries are involved www.eulakes.eu I