ra-kursi
3
`savaluto fari~
`holandiuri daavadebisa~
da inflaciuri
nihilizmis pirobebSi
`savaluto faris~
ZiriTadi Taviseburebani
`savaluto faris~ (zogjer am termins inglisuridan Targmnian rogorc `savaluto sabWos~,
SeiZleba iTargmnos rogorc `savaluto regulirebac~, Tumca, termini `fari~ Cvenis azriT ufro
zustad asaxavs movlenis arss,vidre sxva terminebi)
arsi imaSi mdgomareobs, rom erovnuli valutis
romelime stabilur ucxour valutaze mibma fiqsirebuli gacvliTi kursiT xdeba. es uciloblad moiTxovs imas, rom qveyanas gaaCndes didi odenobiT
ucxouri valuta, raTa fiqsirebuli kursiT valutebis gacvliTi operaciebi ar Seferxdes: rogorc
wesi, saxelmwifos xelT arsebuli ucxouri valutis rezervebi emitirebuli fulis 100 procentze meti unda iyos, es ki ucxouri valutis mniSvnelovani
Semodinebis SemTxvevaSi SeiZleba iqnes miRweuli.
`savaluto faris~ instituti wminda eTikuri
TvalsazrisiT misasalmebelia, radganac is mo-
cemul sferoSi saxelmwifos diskreciul uflebebs zRudavs.
`savaluto faris~ meqanizmis gamoyeneba gamoricxavs centraluri bankis mier mTavrobisTvis sesxis micemas. mTavrobam uari unda Tqvas
deficitur saxelmwifo biujetze da hqondes
mciredi proficiti mainc, raTa Seqmnas sagangebo daniSnulebis fondebi (magaliTad, stabilizaciis fondi) gauTvaliswinebeli SemTxvevebisaTvis. amgvar viTarebaSi komerciuli bankebi amkacreben sakredito politikas, rac, sxva
Tanabar pirobebSi, imaSic gamoixateba, rom
isini uars amboben kvazifiskaluri deficitis
proeqtebSi monawileobaze, roca saxelmwifo
imperatiulad sTxovs maT daakrediton ekonomikurad aramimzidveli proeqtebi (magaliTad,
saqarTveloSi sasoflo-sameurneo warmoebisa
da kvebis mrewvelobis dakrediteba ruseTis mier Sesabamis produqciaze dawesebuli savaWro
embargos pirobebSi).
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ra-kursi
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`savaluto faris~ meqanizmis SemoReba, rogorc wesi, mizanSewonilia maSin, roca qveyanaSi Zalzed maRalia inflaciis done, anu adgili aqvs hiperinflacias, rameTu erTdroulad
stabiluri gacvliTi kursisa da proficituri
(an aradeficituri mainc) saxelmwifo biujetis
qona makroekonomikuri stabilizaciis miRwevis qmediTi instrumentia. es dadasturebulia
praqtikiTac, magaliTad, roca XX saukunis 90iani wlebis dasawyisSi braziliaSi 2700 procents miRweuli wliuri inflacia swored am
meqanizmiT moTokes; 1992-1995 wlebSi estoneTSi imave meqanizmiT wliuri 1069 procentiani
inflacia 29 procentze daiyvanes; litvaSi 1994
wels, wina welTan SedarebiT, 390,2 procentiani wliuri inflacia 72 procentamde Semcirda.
sayuradReboa, rom saqarTveloSi hiperinflacia mxolod 1993-94 wlebSi iyo, roca Tviuri
inflacia 50-70 procents Seadgenda. aqve imasac
unda gaesvas xazi, rom `savaluto fari~ sulac
ar aris garanti imisa, rom Ria tipis ekonomikis mqone qveynebi (dRevandeli saqarTvelo
ki swored aseTia) daicvas sxva qveynebSi mimdinare safinanso krizisisagan, radganac am
SemTxvevaSi stimuli eZleva spekulaciur ope-
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raciebs. amis TvalsaCino magaliTia 1994 wels
meqsikuri pesos devalvacia, roca ucxouri
kapitalis gaqcevisagan argentina `savaluto
farmac~ ver ixsna.
Teoriidan cnobilia, rom `savaluto fari~,
rogorc instituti makroekonomikur stabilizaciaze gardamavali periodisTvisaa Sesaferisi da, amdenad, SeuZlebelia, mTels msoflioSi
igi erTdroulad iqnes gamoyenebuli, radganac
am SemTxvevaSi ekonomikurad ganviTarebul
qveynebs mouxdebaT oqros standartze gadasvla, rac saboloo jamSi am ukanasknelze yvela
sxva qveyanasac gadaiyvans.
`holandiuri senis~
qarTuli fenomeni
`vardebis revoluciis~ Semdeg saqarTvelo
`holandiuri daavadebiT~ dagviavadmyofda: daiwyo didZali ucxouri valutis (ZiriTadad, aSS
dolaris) Semodineba, ramac xeli Seuwyo erovnuli valutis – laris gamyarebas, rac uwinares
yovlisa, uaryofiTad aisaxeba qveynis saeqsporto potencialze. saqarTveloSi am daavade-
ra-kursi
bis gamomwvevi mizezebia: korufciis winaaRmdeg
brZolis meqanizmiT ganpirobebuli yofili Cinovnikebis mier e.w. `Tavisuflebis safasuris~
gadaxda (roca, rogorc wesi, aSS dolarebSi
dagrovebul Tanxebs xelisuflebas ubrunebdnen
erovnul valutaSi), safinanso wesrigis damyareba gansakuTrebiT sabaJoze (roca importiorebi
adre damaluli da aSS dolarebSi akumulirebuli Semosavlebidan saxelmwifos gadasaxadebs
uxdian larebSi), sazRvargareT mcxovrebi Cveni
Tanamemamuleebis mier axloblebisaTvis fuladi gzavnilebi (rogorc wesi, aSS dolarebSi,
romlebic mimdinare xarjebis gansaxorcieleblad larebSi gadaiyvaneba), ucxoelebis monawileobiT ganxorcielebuli msxvilmasStabiani
privatizacia da pirdapiri ucxouri investiciebi (roca, qveynis SigniT am operaciebis gansaxorcieleblad ucxoelebs uxdebaT umTavresad
aSS dolaris konvertacia larSi).
inflaciuri nihilizmis sabiujeto
da institucionaluri safuZvlebi
`holandiuri daavadebiT~ gamowveuli laris gamyarebis procesis Seferxebis mizniT saqarTvelos erovnuli banki laris gayidviT
yidulobs qveyanaSi Semosul aSS dolarebs. es
operacia, erTis mxriv, zrdis erovnuli bankis
rezervebs da SedarebiT narnars xdis laris
gamyarebas, magram imavdroulad laris damatebiTi masis brunvaSi gaSvebiT xels uwyobs inflaciis gazrdas. amgvar viTarebaSi didi mniSvneloba eniWeba imas, rom saxelmwifo biujeti
5
iyos proficituri, rac unda gaxdes inflaciis
moTokvis qmediTi meqanizmi. sinamdvileSi ki
saqarTvelos mTavroba ara marto inarCunebs
deficitur saxelmwifo biujets, aramed kanonmdeblobiT ganmtkicebuli xerxiT faqtobrivi
deficitis odenobas amcirebs kidec: qarTuli
kanonmdeblobiT saxelmwifo qonebis privatizaciidan miRebuli Tanxebi ara deficitis dafinansebis wyaroSi, aramed biujetis SemosavlebSi gaiTvaliswineba. kerZod, oficialurad
gacxadebuli deficitis moculoba 2007 wels
374,5 mln laria, raSic araa CarTuli privatizaciidan misaRebi 400 mln lari, romelic saxelmwifo biujetis SemosavlebSia `damaluli~.
samwuxarod, mTavrobam arc Cvens mier saqarTvelos parlamentSi dayenebuli winadadeba gaiziara, rom Seqmniliyo stabilizaciis fondi, sadac privatizaciidan misaRebi Tanxis naxevaris
akumulireba mainc moxdeboda, rac Seamcirebda
ekonomikaze inflaciur wnexs.
garda xsenebulisa, inflacias saqarTveloSi
xels uwyobs iseTi xarjebic, romlebsac praqtikulad aranairi ekonomikuri ukugeba ar gaaCniaT. magaliTad, aseTebia gauTavebeli Sadrevnebis mSenebloba, studentebisaTvis viTomda
qalaqebis dasufTavebisaTvis xelfasebis gadaxda, an viTomda dasaqmebis xelSewyobis mizniT
saxelmwifo biujetidan aTeulobiT milioni
laris xarjva im umuSevrebisaTvis ramdenime
Tvis ganmavlobaSi xelfasebis gacemaze, vinc
moaxerxebs cnobis Sovnas, rom imave periodiT
kerZo seqtorSi naxa samsaxuri.
inflaciaze saubari arasrulfasovania, Tu
ki ar SevexeT mis faqtobriv dones, rac saqarT-
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ra-kursi
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velos sinamdvileSi, samwuxarod, SeuZlebelia.
2004 wlis dasawyisSi revoluciur talRaze Catarebuli institucionaluri reformis Sedegad statistikis saxelmwifo departamenti, romelic uSualod qveynis prezidents eqvemdebareboda, ekonomikuri ganviTarebis saministroSi
Seiyvanes, rac aSkarad interesTa konfliqtia.
am garemoebis gaTvaliswinebiT gasakviri ar
unda iyos, rom mTavroba dainteresebulia mxolod misi saqmianobis Semqebi statistikuri informacia (maT Soris, inflaciis donis Sesaxebac) Seqmnas da gamoaqveynos. swored es aris
erTaderTi `iaraRi~, riTac mTavroba `warmatebiT~ ebrZvis inflacias. amis sailustraciod gavixsenoT, rom 2006 wlis agvistoSi mTavrobas
gaepara statistikis departamentis mier wliuri inflaciis 14,5 procentis doneze (Tumca, eqspertebis SefasebiT inflacia bevrad maRali
iyo) dafiqsireba, rasac saerTaSoriso savaluto fondis mxridan saqarTvelos xelisuflebis mkacri kritika mohyva. mTavrobis reaqcia
amaze sulac ar yofila saxelmwifo biujetis
deficitis Semcireba an uazro xarjebze uaris
Tqma; mTavrobam Secvala statistikis departamentis xelmZRvaneli da amiT uzrunvelyo 2006
wlis bolosaTvis wliuri inflaciis donis 8,8
procentamde dayvana?! 2007 wels ki statistikis `moWkvianebuli~ departamenti msgavs `Secdomebs~ aRar uSvebs da miuxedavad imisa, rom
praqtikulad yvelas samomxmareblo produqcia arsebiTadaa gaZvirebuli, inflaciis zrdas
2007 wlis seqtemberSi 2006 wlis dekemberTan
SedarebiT mxolod 6,2 procentiT afiqsirebs.
da mainc ras mogvcems
`savaluto fari~?
`holandiuri daavadeba~ erTis mxriv `savaluto faris~ reJimis amoqmedebas uwyobs xels,
rameTu ucxouri valutis didi odenobiT Semodineba zrdis saxelmwifos xelT arsebul savaluto rezervebs. Tumca, saxelmwifo biujetis
#18 ___ oqtomberi 2007
deficituroba ara marto SeuZlebels xdis `savaluto faris~ SemoRebas, aramed holandiuri
daavadebis gamwvavebasac uwyobs xels da Tu
`savaluto fars~ mainc SemoviRebT, maSin fiqsirebuli gacvliTi kursis pirobebSi laris sul
ufro meti odenobiT emisia iqneba saWiro, rac
inflacias kidev ufro gaaRrmavebs.
im SemTxvevaSi ki, Tu `holandiuri daavadebis~ zemoT xsenebuli mizezebi Sesustda an saerTod gaqra, maSin saqarTvelos mwiri saeqsporto potencialisa da ruseTis mier dawesebuli
savaWro embargos gaTvaliswinebiT xsenebuli
savaluti rezervi myisierad daicleba, rac mZime safinanso krizisis mizezi gaxdeba.
`savaluto faris~ romelime apologeti SesaZloa Semogvedaos da gviTxras, rom swored
am institutis SemoReba SeiZleba gaxdes is iZulebis meqanizmi, roca mTavrobas sxva gza aRar
darCes, rom deficituridan proficitur biujetze gadavides. es ki mxolod im naklebad savaraudo SemTxvevaSia SesaZlebeli, Tu ki mTavroba amgvar davalebas qveynis umaRlesi xelisufalisagan miiRebs.
aq isicaa gasaTvaliswinebeli, rom mTavroba, uwinares yovlisa, politikuri, xolo centraluri banki ki – profesiuli organoa. swored amitom aqvs centraluri bankis xelmZRvanelobas dacvis bevrad meti garantia, xolo mTavroba ki politikuri situaciis nebismieri gamwvavebis SemTxvevaSi SeiZleba Seicvalos. aqedan
gamomdinare, zomieri inflaciis SenarCunebis
amocanis gadawyvetis mxolod mTavrobis pasuxismgeblobaze gadatana (rac `savaluto faris~
institutis principuli moTxovnaa), gansakuTrebiT ki maSin, roca mas xelT aqvs statistikuri
informaciiT manipulirebis zemoT xsenebuli
`iaraRi~, windauxedaobiT gamowveuli udidesi
Secdoma iqneba.
da bolos: `savaluto faris~ institutze gadasvlas saqarTvelos konstituciaSi Sesabamisi cvlilebebis miReba esaWiroeba, rac saparlamento Zalebis dRevandeli ganlagebiT, sabednierod, nakleb savaraudoa...