ra-kursi 3 `savaluto fari~ `holandiuri daavadebisa~ da inflaciuri nihilizmis pirobebSi `savaluto faris~ ZiriTadi Taviseburebani `savaluto faris~ (zogjer am termins inglisuridan Targmnian rogorc `savaluto sabWos~, SeiZleba iTargmnos rogorc `savaluto regulirebac~, Tumca, termini `fari~ Cvenis azriT ufro zustad asaxavs movlenis arss,vidre sxva terminebi) arsi imaSi mdgomareobs, rom erovnuli valutis romelime stabilur ucxour valutaze mibma fiqsirebuli gacvliTi kursiT xdeba. es uciloblad moiTxovs imas, rom qveyanas gaaCndes didi odenobiT ucxouri valuta, raTa fiqsirebuli kursiT valutebis gacvliTi operaciebi ar Seferxdes: rogorc wesi, saxelmwifos xelT arsebuli ucxouri valutis rezervebi emitirebuli fulis 100 procentze meti unda iyos, es ki ucxouri valutis mniSvnelovani Semodinebis SemTxvevaSi SeiZleba iqnes miRweuli. `savaluto faris~ instituti wminda eTikuri TvalsazrisiT misasalmebelia, radganac is mo- cemul sferoSi saxelmwifos diskreciul uflebebs zRudavs. `savaluto faris~ meqanizmis gamoyeneba gamoricxavs centraluri bankis mier mTavrobisTvis sesxis micemas. mTavrobam uari unda Tqvas deficitur saxelmwifo biujetze da hqondes mciredi proficiti mainc, raTa Seqmnas sagangebo daniSnulebis fondebi (magaliTad, stabilizaciis fondi) gauTvaliswinebeli SemTxvevebisaTvis. amgvar viTarebaSi komerciuli bankebi amkacreben sakredito politikas, rac, sxva Tanabar pirobebSi, imaSic gamoixateba, rom isini uars amboben kvazifiskaluri deficitis proeqtebSi monawileobaze, roca saxelmwifo imperatiulad sTxovs maT daakrediton ekonomikurad aramimzidveli proeqtebi (magaliTad, saqarTveloSi sasoflo-sameurneo warmoebisa da kvebis mrewvelobis dakrediteba ruseTis mier Sesabamis produqciaze dawesebuli savaWro embargos pirobebSi). #18 ___ oqtomberi 2007 ra-kursi 4 `savaluto faris~ meqanizmis SemoReba, rogorc wesi, mizanSewonilia maSin, roca qveyanaSi Zalzed maRalia inflaciis done, anu adgili aqvs hiperinflacias, rameTu erTdroulad stabiluri gacvliTi kursisa da proficituri (an aradeficituri mainc) saxelmwifo biujetis qona makroekonomikuri stabilizaciis miRwevis qmediTi instrumentia. es dadasturebulia praqtikiTac, magaliTad, roca XX saukunis 90iani wlebis dasawyisSi braziliaSi 2700 procents miRweuli wliuri inflacia swored am meqanizmiT moTokes; 1992-1995 wlebSi estoneTSi imave meqanizmiT wliuri 1069 procentiani inflacia 29 procentze daiyvanes; litvaSi 1994 wels, wina welTan SedarebiT, 390,2 procentiani wliuri inflacia 72 procentamde Semcirda. sayuradReboa, rom saqarTveloSi hiperinflacia mxolod 1993-94 wlebSi iyo, roca Tviuri inflacia 50-70 procents Seadgenda. aqve imasac unda gaesvas xazi, rom `savaluto fari~ sulac ar aris garanti imisa, rom Ria tipis ekonomikis mqone qveynebi (dRevandeli saqarTvelo ki swored aseTia) daicvas sxva qveynebSi mimdinare safinanso krizisisagan, radganac am SemTxvevaSi stimuli eZleva spekulaciur ope- #18 ___ oqtomberi 2007 raciebs. amis TvalsaCino magaliTia 1994 wels meqsikuri pesos devalvacia, roca ucxouri kapitalis gaqcevisagan argentina `savaluto farmac~ ver ixsna. Teoriidan cnobilia, rom `savaluto fari~, rogorc instituti makroekonomikur stabilizaciaze gardamavali periodisTvisaa Sesaferisi da, amdenad, SeuZlebelia, mTels msoflioSi igi erTdroulad iqnes gamoyenebuli, radganac am SemTxvevaSi ekonomikurad ganviTarebul qveynebs mouxdebaT oqros standartze gadasvla, rac saboloo jamSi am ukanasknelze yvela sxva qveyanasac gadaiyvans. `holandiuri senis~ qarTuli fenomeni `vardebis revoluciis~ Semdeg saqarTvelo `holandiuri daavadebiT~ dagviavadmyofda: daiwyo didZali ucxouri valutis (ZiriTadad, aSS dolaris) Semodineba, ramac xeli Seuwyo erovnuli valutis – laris gamyarebas, rac uwinares yovlisa, uaryofiTad aisaxeba qveynis saeqsporto potencialze. saqarTveloSi am daavade- ra-kursi bis gamomwvevi mizezebia: korufciis winaaRmdeg brZolis meqanizmiT ganpirobebuli yofili Cinovnikebis mier e.w. `Tavisuflebis safasuris~ gadaxda (roca, rogorc wesi, aSS dolarebSi dagrovebul Tanxebs xelisuflebas ubrunebdnen erovnul valutaSi), safinanso wesrigis damyareba gansakuTrebiT sabaJoze (roca importiorebi adre damaluli da aSS dolarebSi akumulirebuli Semosavlebidan saxelmwifos gadasaxadebs uxdian larebSi), sazRvargareT mcxovrebi Cveni Tanamemamuleebis mier axloblebisaTvis fuladi gzavnilebi (rogorc wesi, aSS dolarebSi, romlebic mimdinare xarjebis gansaxorcieleblad larebSi gadaiyvaneba), ucxoelebis monawileobiT ganxorcielebuli msxvilmasStabiani privatizacia da pirdapiri ucxouri investiciebi (roca, qveynis SigniT am operaciebis gansaxorcieleblad ucxoelebs uxdebaT umTavresad aSS dolaris konvertacia larSi). inflaciuri nihilizmis sabiujeto da institucionaluri safuZvlebi `holandiuri daavadebiT~ gamowveuli laris gamyarebis procesis Seferxebis mizniT saqarTvelos erovnuli banki laris gayidviT yidulobs qveyanaSi Semosul aSS dolarebs. es operacia, erTis mxriv, zrdis erovnuli bankis rezervebs da SedarebiT narnars xdis laris gamyarebas, magram imavdroulad laris damatebiTi masis brunvaSi gaSvebiT xels uwyobs inflaciis gazrdas. amgvar viTarebaSi didi mniSvneloba eniWeba imas, rom saxelmwifo biujeti 5 iyos proficituri, rac unda gaxdes inflaciis moTokvis qmediTi meqanizmi. sinamdvileSi ki saqarTvelos mTavroba ara marto inarCunebs deficitur saxelmwifo biujets, aramed kanonmdeblobiT ganmtkicebuli xerxiT faqtobrivi deficitis odenobas amcirebs kidec: qarTuli kanonmdeblobiT saxelmwifo qonebis privatizaciidan miRebuli Tanxebi ara deficitis dafinansebis wyaroSi, aramed biujetis SemosavlebSi gaiTvaliswineba. kerZod, oficialurad gacxadebuli deficitis moculoba 2007 wels 374,5 mln laria, raSic araa CarTuli privatizaciidan misaRebi 400 mln lari, romelic saxelmwifo biujetis SemosavlebSia `damaluli~. samwuxarod, mTavrobam arc Cvens mier saqarTvelos parlamentSi dayenebuli winadadeba gaiziara, rom Seqmniliyo stabilizaciis fondi, sadac privatizaciidan misaRebi Tanxis naxevaris akumulireba mainc moxdeboda, rac Seamcirebda ekonomikaze inflaciur wnexs. garda xsenebulisa, inflacias saqarTveloSi xels uwyobs iseTi xarjebic, romlebsac praqtikulad aranairi ekonomikuri ukugeba ar gaaCniaT. magaliTad, aseTebia gauTavebeli Sadrevnebis mSenebloba, studentebisaTvis viTomda qalaqebis dasufTavebisaTvis xelfasebis gadaxda, an viTomda dasaqmebis xelSewyobis mizniT saxelmwifo biujetidan aTeulobiT milioni laris xarjva im umuSevrebisaTvis ramdenime Tvis ganmavlobaSi xelfasebis gacemaze, vinc moaxerxebs cnobis Sovnas, rom imave periodiT kerZo seqtorSi naxa samsaxuri. inflaciaze saubari arasrulfasovania, Tu ki ar SevexeT mis faqtobriv dones, rac saqarT- #18 ___ oqtomberi 2007 ra-kursi 6 velos sinamdvileSi, samwuxarod, SeuZlebelia. 2004 wlis dasawyisSi revoluciur talRaze Catarebuli institucionaluri reformis Sedegad statistikis saxelmwifo departamenti, romelic uSualod qveynis prezidents eqvemdebareboda, ekonomikuri ganviTarebis saministroSi Seiyvanes, rac aSkarad interesTa konfliqtia. am garemoebis gaTvaliswinebiT gasakviri ar unda iyos, rom mTavroba dainteresebulia mxolod misi saqmianobis Semqebi statistikuri informacia (maT Soris, inflaciis donis Sesaxebac) Seqmnas da gamoaqveynos. swored es aris erTaderTi `iaraRi~, riTac mTavroba `warmatebiT~ ebrZvis inflacias. amis sailustraciod gavixsenoT, rom 2006 wlis agvistoSi mTavrobas gaepara statistikis departamentis mier wliuri inflaciis 14,5 procentis doneze (Tumca, eqspertebis SefasebiT inflacia bevrad maRali iyo) dafiqsireba, rasac saerTaSoriso savaluto fondis mxridan saqarTvelos xelisuflebis mkacri kritika mohyva. mTavrobis reaqcia amaze sulac ar yofila saxelmwifo biujetis deficitis Semcireba an uazro xarjebze uaris Tqma; mTavrobam Secvala statistikis departamentis xelmZRvaneli da amiT uzrunvelyo 2006 wlis bolosaTvis wliuri inflaciis donis 8,8 procentamde dayvana?! 2007 wels ki statistikis `moWkvianebuli~ departamenti msgavs `Secdomebs~ aRar uSvebs da miuxedavad imisa, rom praqtikulad yvelas samomxmareblo produqcia arsebiTadaa gaZvirebuli, inflaciis zrdas 2007 wlis seqtemberSi 2006 wlis dekemberTan SedarebiT mxolod 6,2 procentiT afiqsirebs. da mainc ras mogvcems `savaluto fari~? `holandiuri daavadeba~ erTis mxriv `savaluto faris~ reJimis amoqmedebas uwyobs xels, rameTu ucxouri valutis didi odenobiT Semodineba zrdis saxelmwifos xelT arsebul savaluto rezervebs. Tumca, saxelmwifo biujetis #18 ___ oqtomberi 2007 deficituroba ara marto SeuZlebels xdis `savaluto faris~ SemoRebas, aramed holandiuri daavadebis gamwvavebasac uwyobs xels da Tu `savaluto fars~ mainc SemoviRebT, maSin fiqsirebuli gacvliTi kursis pirobebSi laris sul ufro meti odenobiT emisia iqneba saWiro, rac inflacias kidev ufro gaaRrmavebs. im SemTxvevaSi ki, Tu `holandiuri daavadebis~ zemoT xsenebuli mizezebi Sesustda an saerTod gaqra, maSin saqarTvelos mwiri saeqsporto potencialisa da ruseTis mier dawesebuli savaWro embargos gaTvaliswinebiT xsenebuli savaluti rezervi myisierad daicleba, rac mZime safinanso krizisis mizezi gaxdeba. `savaluto faris~ romelime apologeti SesaZloa Semogvedaos da gviTxras, rom swored am institutis SemoReba SeiZleba gaxdes is iZulebis meqanizmi, roca mTavrobas sxva gza aRar darCes, rom deficituridan proficitur biujetze gadavides. es ki mxolod im naklebad savaraudo SemTxvevaSia SesaZlebeli, Tu ki mTavroba amgvar davalebas qveynis umaRlesi xelisufalisagan miiRebs. aq isicaa gasaTvaliswinebeli, rom mTavroba, uwinares yovlisa, politikuri, xolo centraluri banki ki – profesiuli organoa. swored amitom aqvs centraluri bankis xelmZRvanelobas dacvis bevrad meti garantia, xolo mTavroba ki politikuri situaciis nebismieri gamwvavebis SemTxvevaSi SeiZleba Seicvalos. aqedan gamomdinare, zomieri inflaciis SenarCunebis amocanis gadawyvetis mxolod mTavrobis pasuxismgeblobaze gadatana (rac `savaluto faris~ institutis principuli moTxovnaa), gansakuTrebiT ki maSin, roca mas xelT aqvs statistikuri informaciiT manipulirebis zemoT xsenebuli `iaraRi~, windauxedaobiT gamowveuli udidesi Secdoma iqneba. da bolos: `savaluto faris~ institutze gadasvlas saqarTvelos konstituciaSi Sesabamisi cvlilebebis miReba esaWiroeba, rac saparlamento Zalebis dRevandeli ganlagebiT, sabednierod, nakleb savaraudoa...