Food and Agriculture Organization of the United Nations Fare clic per modificare lo stile Non virological factors that del titolo could influence influenza • Fare clic per modificare gli stili del testo d ll schema dello h emergence • • • • Secondo livello Terzo livello Past experience – new Quarto livello paradigms p g for future threats Quinto livello USAID partners meeting – April 2009 Vincent Martin, FAO ECTAD China April 2010, Verona 1 Food and Agriculture Organization of the United Nations Fare clic per modificare lo stile Goals del titolo • Fare clic per modificare gli stili del testo 1. Identifyy non virological g characteristics for d ll schema dello h the emergence of zoonotic and pandemic • Secondo livello AI viruses •2.Terzo Whilelivello taking stock of the experience from • Quarto the lastlivello 6 years •3.Quinto livello Options for the future and new approaches USAID partners meeting – April 2009 2 1 Food and Agriculture Organization of the United Nations Fare clic per modificare lo stile Key non virological del titolo factors institutional • Fare clic per modificare gli stili del testo dblill and dello schema • P Public dhprivate i veterinary i and d animal i l •production Secondoservices livello • Weaknesses of veterinary services • Terzo livello • Outbreak investigation, tracking source of infection • Quarto livello • Public P bli livello private i t partnership t hi • Quinto • Compensation schemes 3 USAID partners meeting – April 2009 Food and Agriculture Organization of the United Nations Fare clic per modificare lo stile Key non virological factors del titolo Cultural • Fare clic per modificare gli stili del testo d ll schema dello h • Fighting cocks •• Secondo livello Festivals (Spring festival, China & Tet festival • Terzo livellofostering sharp increase in trade in Vietnam) Releaselivello of wild birds (e.g Hong-Kong) •• Quarto Cultural/religious preference for live •• Quinto livello meat USAID partners meeting – April 2009 4 2 Food and Agriculture Organization of the United Nations Fare clicnon pervirological modificare lo stile Key factors del titolo Ecological • Fare clic per modificare gli stili del testo d When dello ll schema h humans and domestic • Secondo livello animals encroach on ecological niches they • Terzo livello • Quarto livello create new opportunities • Quinto livello for cross-species transmission of diseases. 5 USAID partners meeting – April 2009 Food and Agriculture Organization of the United Nations Fare clic per modificare lo stile Key non virological factors titolo Farmingdel and production • Fare clic per modificare gli stili del testo • Century C old d ti systems t associated i t d tto d ll t schema dello hld production rapid industrialization of animal production in • Secondo livello Asia • Domestic ducks were first moved from rivers to cultivated rice fields at the start of the • Terzo livello Qing dynasty in the middle of the 17 century • The current global epidemic of AI originated in rice paddies of South East Asia that • Quarto livello had been wetland sanctuaries (R. Wallace) • Greater mix mi of influenza infl en a serotypes serot pes increasing genetic reassortment • Quinto livello • Rapid evolution of poultry production systems th (shortridge) • China liberalizing economy and creation of Special economic zones for trade (e.g Guangdong and Shenzhen) • Development continues (agro-park in Shaanxi province with a capacity of 3Million head/year) • Broader perspective: Industrialized countries (trade, high productivity, generation of pandemic strains or other EIDs) USAID partners meeting – April 2009 6 3 Food and Agriculture Organization of the United Nations Fare clic per modificare lo stile Key non virological del titolo factors • Fare clic per modificare gli stili del testo • Predictive capacity of Early Warning d ll schema dello h Systems • Secondo livello & articulation with Response • Terzo livello systems • Quarto livello • Quinto livello 7 USAID partners meeting – April 2009 Food and Agriculture Organization of the United Nations Fare clic per modificare lo stile Options for the future del titolo • Fare clic per modificare gli stili del testo • Some of the institutional,, production p and d ll schema dello h cultural elements can be addressed fairly • Secondo easily andlivello in the short term while other • Terzo livelloa longer term approach and will require associated • be Quarto livello with achievement of longer term development objectives • Quinto livello USAID partners meeting – April 2009 8 4 Food and Agriculture Organization of the United Nations Fare clic per modificare lo stile Options for the future del titolo Integrated riskmodificare management • •Fare clic per gliapproach stili del testo d ll schema dello h HumanHuman health risks animal • Secondo livello interface • Terzo livello Agroecological • Quarto livello Introduction Establishment re-occurrence AI Risk • Quinto livello factors Marketing chain component Inputs Production Marketing Consumers 9 USAID partners meeting – April 2009 Food and Agriculture Organization of the United Nations Fare clic per modificare lo stile del titolo • Fare clic per modificare gli stili del testo d ll schema dello h • Secondo livello • Terzo livello • Quarto livello • Quinto livello USAID partners meeting – April 2009 10 5 Food and Agriculture Organization of the United Nations Fare clic per modificare lo stile LBM ego-networks of China Geographical distribution del titolo • Fare clic per modificare gli stili del testo d ll schema dello h • Secondo livello • Terzo livello • Quarto livello • Quinto livello 11 USAID partners meeting – April 2009 Food and Agriculture Organization of the United Nations Fare clic per modificare lo stile del titolo • Fare clic per modificare gli stili del testo d ll schema dello h • Secondo livello • Terzo livello • Quarto livello • Quinto livello USAID partners meeting – April 2009 12 6 Complete network Food and Agriculture Organization of the United Nations Fare clic per modificare lo stile Risk of infection in county (Odds Ratios) Variable Poultry Market Human outbreaks del titolo outbreaks Surveillance Node type/subtype Catchment Farms Catchment Markets Catchment Traders Markets Node degree 1 2 >3 Node K-core 1 2 >3 • Fare clic per modificare gli stili del testo Ref. d ll schema dello h 3.46* 1.2 0.73 • Secondo livello 0.61 2.86 1.69 2 0.94 • Terzo livello 3.48* • Quarto livello Ref. 0 93 0.93 3 54* 3.54 4 47* 4.47 • Quinto livello 1.09 1.54 2.1 Ref. 1.31 0.8 2.32* 3.42* 3.27* 3.89* * Bayesian Credible Interval (BCI) does not contain 1; based on univariable Bernoulli Bayesian model, with a spatially unstructured 13 USAID partners random meeting –effect April 2009 Food and Agriculture Organization of the United Nations Fare clic per modificare lo stile del titolo USAID partners meeting – April 2009 14 Photo : P P. Ben Embarek, WHO, China • Fare clic per modificare gli stili del testo d ll schema dello h • Secondo livello • Terzo livello • Quarto livello • Quinto livello 7 Food and Agriculture Organization of the United Nations Fare clic per modificare lo stile Options for the future del titolo • Integrated approach “Environment, agriculture • Fare clic per modificare gli stili del testo and infectious diseases” d ll schema dello h • Still at an embryonic stage – needs • Secondo livello strengthening through One (Eco) Health Approach • Terzo livello •• Strengthening Quarto livelloVS and EW systems (from national to global, global from Research to Policy) • Quinto livello • Engage countries in the process • Explore innovative techniques in a multidisciplinary approach (SNA, socio-economic, 15 Ecological resilience applied to traditional epidemiology) USAID partners meeting – April 2009 Food and Agriculture Organization of the United Nations Fare clic per modificare lo stile del titolo • Fare clic per modificare gli stili del testo dello d ll schema h • Secondo livello • Terzo livello • Quarto livello Thank you for your • Quinto livello attention USAID partners meeting – April 2009 16 8