Elisa Varini
Í
via Bassini 15, Milano
CAP 20133
T +39 02 23699 527
u +39 02 23699 538
B [email protected]
www.mi.imati.cnr.it/elisa/
PUBLICATION
Journal articles
R Rotondi and E Varini. Global statistical tests for clustered earthquake pattern discovery in Italy. Research in Geophysics, 2:e9:58–72, 2012. doi:10.4081/rg.2012.e9.
E Varini. A Monte Carlo method for filtering a marked doubly stochastic Poisson
process. Statistical Methods & Applications, 17:183–193, 2008. doi:10.1007/s10260007-0051-y.
R Rotondi and E Varini. Bayesian inference of stress release models applied to
some seismogenic zones. Geophysical Journal International, 169:301–314, 2007.
doi:10.1111/j.1365-246X.2006.03314.x.
R Rotondi and E Varini. Bayesian analysis of marked stress release models for
time-dependent hazard assessment in the western Gulf of Corinth. Tectonophysics,
Special Issue: Spatiotemporal Models of Seismicity and Earthquake Occurrence,
423(1-4):107–113, 2006. doi:10.1016/j.tecto.2006.03.005.
E Varini. Sequential estimation methods in continuous-time state-space models.
PhD thesis, Università Commerciale Luigi Bocconi, Milano, 2005.
R Rotondi and E Varini. Bayesian analysis of a marked point process: application
in seismic hazard assessment. Statistical Methods & Applications, 12:79–92, 2003.
doi:10.1007/BF02511585.
Technical reports
E Varini, R Rotondi, R Basili, S Barba, and B Betrò. Strain-, moment- and
energy-based self-correcting models for probabilistic seismic hazard analysis in Italy.
Technical Report Quaderno IMATI-CNR 1-MI, 2013.
A Bodini, C Cesaraccio, M Dubrovsky, P Duce, E Varini, and P Zara. Impatto
dei cambiamenti climatici sulle produzioni agricole: strategie di adattamento ai
processi di desertificazione nelle aree mediterranee (cycas-med). Report finale-parte
A. Technical Report Quaderno IMATI-CNR 1-MI, 2011.
E Varini, R Rotondi, R Basili, S Barba, and B Betrò. Studio di modelli di rilascio di
sforzo e di modelli epidemici: applicazione ai terremoti dell’Arco Calabro. Technical
Report Quaderno IAMI-CNR 2000.19, 2000.
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Proceedings
(∗ is the name of the speaker)
R Rotondi and E Varini∗ . Modelling the occurrence of strong earthquakes through
the superposition of two stochastic processes: a multi-rupture model driven by a
self-correcting model. In Modelli Complessi e Metodi Computazionali Intensivi per
la Stima e la Previsione (S.Co.2013), pages 1–4. Poliscript 2013, Politecnico di
Milano, 9-11 september 2013. Pen-drive, ISBN 97888-6493-019-0.
R Rotondi, C Brambilla, and E Varini. Validation of macroseismic scenarios from
a beta-binomial model. In Miscellanea INGV, volume 21, pages 15–16. Centro
Editoriale Nazionale INGV, 4th General Meeting UPStrat-MAFA, Catania, 11-14
december 2013. ISBN 2039-6651.
R Rotondi, C Brambilla, and E Varini. On the macroseismic attenuation from the
probabilistic perspective. In Miscellanea INGV, volume 21, pages 11–12. Centro
Editoriale Nazionale INGV, 4th General Meeting UPStrat-MAFA, Catania, 11-14
december 2013. ISBN 2039-6651.
R Rotondi, C Brambilla, and E Varini. A beta-binomial model for macroseismic
attenuation. case studies in european countries. In Miscellanea INGV, volume 21,
pages 13–14. Centro Editoriale Nazionale INGV, 4th General Meeting UPStratMAFA, Catania, 11-14 december 2013. ISBN 2039-6651.
F Meroni, R Azzaro, S D’Amico, T Tuvè, G Zonno, AF Ferreira, F Mota de Sà,
CS Oliveira, C Brambilla, R Rotondi, and E Varini. The Disruption Index evaluation
in the urban Mt. Etna area (Italy). In Miscellanea INGV, volume 21, pages 41–42.
Centro Editoriale Nazionale INGV, 4th General Meeting UPStrat-MAFA, Catania,
11-14 december 2013. ISBN 2039-6651.
E Varini∗ , R Rotondi, R Basili, S Barba, and B Betrò. Self-correcting models with
different measures of the earthquake strength. In Gruppo Nazionale di Geofisica
della Terra Solida, Tema2: Caratterizzazione sismica del territorio, Atti del 31o
Convegno Nazionale, pages 388–395. Mosetti Tecniche Arti Grafiche - Trieste,
Potenza, 20-22 november 2012. ISBN 978-88-902101-2-9.
R Rotondi∗ , C Brambilla, E Varini, and R Sigbjörnsson. Probabilistic analysis
of macroseismic fields: Icelandic case study. In Proceedings of the 15th World
Conference on Earthquake Engineering (15WCEE), pages 1–8. Oxford Abstracts
Limited, OXFORD, Lisbona (Portogallo), 24-28 september 2012.
Zonno∗ , G et al. Urban disaster-prevention strategies using macroseismic fields
and fault sources. In Proceedings of the 15th World Conference on Earthquake
Engineering (15WCEE), pages 1–9. Oxford Abstracts Limited, OXFORD, Lisbona
(Portogallo), 24-28 september 2012.
E Varini and R Rotondi. Global Statistical Tests for Clustered Pattern Discovery in
Italy. In The 7th International Workshop on Statistical Seismology, pages 36–39,
Thera (Greece), 25-27 may 2011. Poster.
R Rotondi∗ , E Varini, and G Zonno. Clustering and classification of macroseismic
fields in hazard evaluation. In The 8th International Meeting of the CLAssification
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and Data Analysis Group (CLADAG) of the Italian Statistical Society, pages 1–4,
Pavia, 7-9 september 2011. ISBN: 978-88-906639.
R Rotondi∗ and E Varini. Is space-time interaction real or apparent in seismic
activity? In SPATIAL 2 - Spatial data methods for Environmental and Ecological
Processes, 2nd edition, pages 229–232. CDP Service Edizioni, Foggia and Baia delle
Zagare, 1-2 september 2011. ISBN 978-88-96025-12-3.
E Varini∗ , R Rotondi, B Betrò, S Barba, and R Basili. Seismic hazard assessment
by slip, strain and moment-based self-correcting models. In Atti del 29o Convegno
Nazionale del Gruppo Nazionale di Geofisica della Terra Solida (GNGTS), pages
198–201. Stella Arti Grafiche, Prato, 26-28 october 2010. ISBN 978-88-902101-5-0.
E Varini∗ and Y Ogata.
Bayesian estimation of doubly stochastic poisson processes for detection of seismicity phases.
In The 5th International Workshop on Applied Probability (IWAP), pages 1–3. Universidad Calos III de Madrid, Colmenarejo, Madrid (Spagna), 5-8 july 2010.
On
www.fundacion.uc3m.es/IWAP2010/Extended_Abstracts.html, invited talk.
R Rotondi∗ and E Varini. Statistical significance of earthquake space-time clustering:
Italy case. In Atti del 29o Convegno Nazionale del Gruppo Nazionale di Geofisica
della Terra Solida (GNGTS), pages 207–208. Stella Arti Grafiche, Prato, 26-28
october 2010. ISBN 978-88-902101-5-0.
E Varini, R Rotondi∗ , B Betrò, S Barba, and R Basili. Self-correcting models for
seismic hazard assessment in comparison. In Atti del 28o Convegno Nazionale del
Gruppo Nazionale di Geofisica della Terra Solida (GNGTS), pages 414–416. Stella
Arti Grafiche, Trieste, 16-19 november 2009. ISBN 88-902101-4-1.
R Rotondi and E Varini∗ . Bayesian inference of a doubly stochastic poisson process
with a non-stationary state process. In Modelli Complessi e Metodi Computazionali
Intensivi per la Stima e la Previsione (S.Co.2009), pages 449–454. Maggioli Editore,
Milano, 14-16 september 2009. ISBN 978-88-387-4385-1.
R Rotondi and E Varini∗ . A hmm involving stress release and etas models. In
31st General Assembly of the European seismological Commission, pages 467–473.
Institute of Geodynamics National Observatory, Hersonissos, Creta (Grecia), 7-12
september 2008. Cd-rom.
R Rotondi∗ and E Varini. Examples of how the stochastic modelling helps in
understanding the earthquake dynamics. In The 4th International Workshop on
Applied Probability (IWAP), pages 1–8. Université de Technologie de Compiègne,
Compiègne (Francia), 7-10 july 2008. Cd-rom, invited talk.
N Chopin, R Rotondi, and E Varini∗ . Filtering and inference of a doubly stochastic
poisson process. In Teoria e applicazioni: analisi statistica spazio-temporale, pages
32–33, Naha, Okynawa Islads (Japan), 27-28 november 2008.
N Chopin∗ and E Varini. Particle filtering for continuous-time hidden markov
models. In Conférence Oxford sur les méthodes de Monte Carlo séquen-tielles.
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Oxford (UK), 3-5 july 2006, volume 19 of ESAIM : Proceedings, pages 12–17, 2007.
doi:10.1051/proc:071903, ISSN 1270-900X.
N Chopin and E Varini. Likelihood inference for continuous-time state-space models.
In Riunione Intermedia della Società Italiana di Statistica “Rischio e previsione”,
pages 641–642. Cleup Editrice-Padova, Venezia, 6-8 june 2007. Poster, ISBN
978-88-6129-093-8.
R Rotondi and E Varini. Modelli di rilascio di sforzo e aree sismogenetiche. In Atti del
25o Convegno Nazionale Gruppo Nazionale di Geofisica della Terra Solida (GNGTS),
pages 356–357, Roma, 28-30 november 2006. Poster, ISBN 88-902101-1-7.
N Chopin and E Varini∗ . Particle filtering of a state-space model for seismic
sequences. In The 4th International Workshop on Statistical Seismology, pages
36–39, Hayama (Giappone), 9-13 january 2006. Poster.
E Varini∗ . Monte carlo method for the filtering of a state-space model. In
Modelli Complessi e Metodi Computazionali Intensivi per la Stima e la Previsione
(S.Co.2005), pages 335–340. Cleup Editrice-Padova, Bressanone, 15-17 september
2005.
R Rotondi and E Varini∗ . Previsione del prossimo terremoto attraverso la simulazione
stocastica di un modello stress release. In Atti del 24o Convegno Nazionale Gruppo
Nazionale di Geofisica della Terra Solida (GNGTS), pages 208–209, Roma, 15-17
november 2005. ISBN 88-902101-9-2.
R Rotondi∗ and E Varini. Valutazione della pericolosità sismica nella regione
sannio-matese-ofanto-irpinia attraverso modelli di rilascio di sforzo. In XI Congresso
Nazionale “L’ingegneria Sismica in Italia”, pages 1–8. Servizi Grafici Editoriali snc Padova, Genova, 25-29 january 2004. su cd-rom, ISBN 88-86281-89-7.
R Rotondi∗ and E Varini. Ipotesi fisica + modello statistico = nuove stime di
hazard. alcuni risultati preliminari. In Atti del 22o Convegno Nazionale Gruppo
Nazionale di Geofisica della Terra Solida (GNGTS), pages 173–174, Roma, 18-20
november 2003.
R Rotondi and E Varini∗ . Bayesian analysis of linked stress release models. In
Modelli Complessi e Metodi Computazionali Intensivi per la Stima e la Previsione
(S.Co.2003), pages 356–361. Dipartimento di Statistica, Università Ca’ Foscari,
Venezia, Treviso, 4-6 september 2003.
R Rotondi∗ and E Varini. Bayesian analysis of marked point processes: application in
seismic hazard assessment. In Modelli Complessi e Metodi Computazionali Intensivi
per la Stima e la Previsione (S.Co.2001), pages 301–306. Cleup Editrice-Padova,
Bressanone, 24-26 september 2001.
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