Previsioni di Mercato Oil&Gas - Raffinazione,
Chimico e Petrolchimico, Offshore,
energia convenzionale e alternativa
Il Mercato della Power Generation
Carlo Luzzatto
Condirettore Generale
Ansaldo Energia
Sezione Componentistica d’Impianto ANIMP
XI Convegno, Villa Torretta, 5 novembre 2009
Previsioni di Mercato Oil&Gas - Raffinazione,
Chimico e Petrolchimico, Offshore,
energia convenzionale e alternativa
Contents
!
"The Value Chain
#"Market Forecasts
$"Projects and Players
Previsioni di Mercato Oil&Gas - Raffinazione,
Chimico e Petrolchimico, Offshore,
energia convenzionale e alternativa
!
"The Value Chain
Previsioni di Mercato Oil&Gas - Raffinazione,
Chimico e Petrolchimico, Offshore,
energia convenzionale e alternativa
The Value Chain (I)
Power Plant
Development
% Plant configuration and
basic design
% Environmental Impact
Assessment
% Permitting
Power Plant
Engineering,
Procurement and
Construction
% Engineering, Procurement
and Construction of
complete power plants
providing the customers with
turn-key or customary
solutions
% Management of the
complete supply chain
% Execution of all site works,
assembly of components,
managing the installation
and commissioning.
Equipment
Manufacturing and
Supply
% Gas Turbine for open and
combined cycles ranging
from 70MW up to 285 MW
% Steam Turbines ranging
from 50MW up to 1000MW
% Generators for steam, gas
and hydro turbines
Service and
Maintenance
% Spare Parts, Upgrading and
Repowering Solutions, Long
Term Service Agreements,
Training, Field Service,
Repairs, Remote Monitoring
& Diagnostics
% LTSA on AEN and third
parties installed fleet
Margins
Equipment
Service
EPC
Cash
Previsioni di Mercato Oil&Gas - Raffinazione,
Chimico e Petrolchimico, Offshore,
energia convenzionale e alternativa
The Value Chain (II)
EPC
and/or Equipment Manufacturer
Open Cycle
Gas Turbines
Generator
Combined Cycle
Equipment Manufacturer
Thermal Power Plant
Steam Turbines
Steam Turbines
Gas Turbines
Boiler
HRSG
Generator
I&C
Generator
BOP & Aux
Civil Works
Transportation
Engineering
I&C
I&C
BOP & Aux
BOP & Aux
Civil Works
Civil Works
Transportation
Transportation
Engineering
Engineering
AEN Supply
Third Party Supply
Partly AEN Supply
Previsioni di Mercato Oil&Gas - Raffinazione,
Chimico e Petrolchimico, Offshore,
energia convenzionale e alternativa
#"Market Forecasts
Previsioni di Mercato Oil&Gas - Raffinazione,
Chimico e Petrolchimico, Offshore,
energia convenzionale e alternativa
Power Generation Capacity Total Orders by Technologies (I)
• 2008 was a record year
in terms of orders for
most of the power
generation technologies,
especially Hydro,
Nuclear and Wind, while
Gas and Steam almost
repeated the outstanding
2007 performance
(M!)
450000
400000
350000
300000
250000
• In the medium term the
slight reduction of
investments in Hydro
and Steam will be
counterbalanced by
increasing investments
in other high CapEx
technologies like Solar
and Distributed
Generation
200000
150000
100000
50000
0
2004 2005 2006 2007 2008 2009 2010 2011 2012 2013 2014 2015 2016 2017 2018 2019 2020
GAS*
STEAM
NUCLEAR
HYDRO
WIND
SOLAR
Other REN&DG
Source: AEN internal elaboration; * includes GT-based plants (i.e. Combined and Open Cycles)
Previsioni di Mercato Oil&Gas - Raffinazione,
Chimico e Petrolchimico, Offshore,
energia convenzionale e alternativa
Power Generation Capacity Total Orders by Region (I)
(M!)
450000
400000
350000
300000
250000
200000
150000
100000
50000
0
2004 2005 2006 2007 2008 2009 2010 2011 2012 2013 2014 2015 2016 2017 2018 2019 2020
EU
RUSSIA
INDIA
AFRICA
LATIN AMERICA
CHINA
MIDDLE EAST
OCEANIA
NORTH AMERICA
Rest Of EUROPE/CIS
ASIA
• Power generation market
in the last 2 years was
dominated by new
Steam Coal plants in
China and India (> 380
B! in new orders)
• EU and Middle East
orders > 65 B!/yr in ’07’08, driven by Gas Plants
• In the medium term a
strong comeback of
North America is
expected due to the
massive replacements of
aging plants, along with
current restructuring plan
in Russia and Eastern
Europe
• Investments reduction in
China and India should
be counterbalanced by
increasing expenditures
in other Emerging
Economies in SouthEast Asia, Africa and
Latin America
Source: AEN internal elaboration
Previsioni di Mercato Oil&Gas - Raffinazione,
Chimico e Petrolchimico, Offshore,
energia convenzionale e alternativa
Power Generation Capacity Renewables & Distr. Gen. Orders by Technology
(MW)
80000
70000
60000
50000
40000
30000
20000
10000
0
2004 2005 2006 2007 2008 2009 2010 2011 2012 2013 2014 2015 2016 2017 2018 2019 2020
BIOMASS/WTE
MINI HYDRO
FUEL CELLS
SOLAR CSP
GENSET
GEOTHERMAL
SOLAR PV
WIND
• Booming Renewables &
Distributed Generation
Market, mostly driven by
Wind installations in EU,
North Am., China and India
• Considerable orders for Solar
PV have started in 2006 due
to incentives in many EU
countries but, as price of this
technology is quickly
decreasing, in the next ten
years Solar PV orders could
reach volumes close to those
for Wind power.
• Concentrated Solar Power
(CSP) and Biomass & Waste
to Energy markets are also
estimated to show large
growth rates in the close
future
• More mature technologies
like Gensets, Mini Hydro and
Geothermal should keep
their historical market levels
while innovative technologies
like Fuel Cells are not
forecast to provide
substantial contributions at
least over the projected
period
Source: AEN internal elaboration
Previsioni di Mercato Oil&Gas - Raffinazione,
Chimico e Petrolchimico, Offshore,
energia convenzionale e alternativa
Impact of the Crisis
Before the
financial
crisis…
What’s
happening
now…
Rate of investment in PG
increase significantly
New Players
Global power orders to
Europe
fall by up to 50% in 2009
Consolidation,
Capex Cuts by Utilities,
Limited access to funding
Gas Turbine Market (50 and 60
Hz)
1st Half ’08
1st Half ’09
34
GW
16
GW
-53%
Gas Turbines for Power Generation
Application above 50 MW
Previsioni di Mercato Oil&Gas - Raffinazione,
Chimico e Petrolchimico, Offshore,
energia convenzionale e alternativa
Shaping of the European Market
Previsioni di Mercato Oil&Gas - Raffinazione,
Chimico e Petrolchimico, Offshore,
energia convenzionale e alternativa
$"Projects and Players
Previsioni di Mercato Oil&Gas - Raffinazione,
Chimico e Petrolchimico, Offshore,
energia convenzionale e alternativa
Turnkey Attitude - Global Fossil Market*
16%
30000
OEM to utilities
47%
OEM to EPC
25000
OEM EPC TK
37%
20000
AFRICA
ASIA/FAR EAST
CIS
ITALY
Steam
Open Cycles
Open Cycles
Steam
Steam
Steam
EUROPE
Combined Cycles
120 GW
(*)
• New Fossil Power Plants/Equipment Commissioned and
Under Construction in 2005-2009 featuring GTs above
50MW and STs above 100MW
• 50 Hz Global market (excluding China and India)
Combined Cycles
100%
Combined Cycles
80%
Open Cycles
60%
Combined Cycles
40%
Open Cycles
20%
0
Combined Cycles
68 GW
Steam
5000
Open Cycles
0%
27.5 GW
Combined Cycles
Combined Cycles
10000
Steam
Open Cycles
24.5 GW
Open Cycles
Steam
15000
Combined Cycles
OEM EPC TK OEM to EPC OEM to utilities
LATIN MIDDLE EAST
AMERICA
Source: AEN internal elaboration
Previsioni di Mercato Oil&Gas - Raffinazione,
Chimico e Petrolchimico, Offshore,
energia convenzionale e alternativa
Main EPC Players
EU27+Turkey
Russia
A-Tec Power Plant Systems (AT),
MetKa (GR),
Tecnicas Reunidas, Iberinco (ES)
Gama Power Systems Eng , Enka (TR)
Fluor (US)
Russian EPC (EMK Engineering Co. Ltd.,
Technopromexport, Atomstroyexport,
E4, Energokaskad, Stroytransgaz)
Italy
Far East and Iran
FWI
Techint
Tecnimont
Fata
y artners)
a
l
p
’s OP P
M with B
E
O
m
jo r
ortiu
a
M
+ ten in Cons
C
P
E
in g
Chinese EPC (Shanghay Electric, Harbin
Power Equipment, DongFang Electric
Company, China National Machinery &
Equipment Import & Export Corporation
(CMEC), SEPCO III) and Korean EPC (
POSCO, Hyundai, Samsung, Doosan)
(of
Middle East
Americas (only 50 Hz market)
POSCO (KR), Hitachi (JP),
Iberinco, ACS Cobra, Initec (ES),
Tecnimont (IT),
Fluor, Foster Wheeler , Black&Veatch (US)
Africa
Harbin Power Equipment , Dongfang (CN),
SNC Lavalin (CA), Marubeni (JP),
ACS Cobra, Initec (ES),
Saipem (IT), Foster Wheeler (US)
Chinese EPC (Harbin Power Equipment , Dongfang,
Shanghay Electric, Harbin Power Equipment),
Korean EPC ( POSCO, Hyundai, Samsung, Doosan, Hanwa),
Saipem (IT), Metka (GR)
Previsioni di Mercato Oil&Gas - Raffinazione,
Chimico e Petrolchimico, Offshore,
energia convenzionale e alternativa
Market Opportunities for EPC Projects (Gas Fired only)
Orders 2010-2014
75
• Combined and
Open Cycles
Projects Only
70
GW
65
Open Cycles - 300MW Block Equivalent
25,2
60
34
50
basis Only
16
14,1
14
5
9,1
30
10,4
4
15
Only
• Gas Turbines
25
10
5
4,1
35
2
11
6
0
AFRICA
ASIA
38
CHINA
EU
INDIA
Source: AEN internal elaboration
10
6
2,8
21
12
8
10
3
15
• 50Hz Countries
11,5
14 9,4
25
20
18
15,5
40
Turnkey EPC
22
20
55
35
24
Combined Cycles - 400MW Block Equivalent
45
• Projects on
26
26
5
2,1
6
2
4
4
18
LATIN MIDDLE OCEANI Rest Of RUSSIA
AMERIC EAST
A
Europe
A
& CIS
2
0
Previsioni di Mercato Oil&Gas - Raffinazione,
Chimico e Petrolchimico, Offshore,
energia convenzionale e alternativa
Sample of Projects 2009-2012
EU27+Turkey
Russia
2009 orders
-Belgium, Tessenderlo (400MW CC), T-Power 30%Siemens), TK Siemens
-UK, Pembroke (2000MW CC), RWE N-Power, TK Alstom
-Netherlands, Enecogen Rotterdam (800MW CC), Enecogen-Dong, TK
Siemens
2010-12
-France, Fos Sur Mer (420MW CC), Electrabel, TK
-Greece, Florina2 (330MW ST), PPC, TK
-Poland, Opole (2x470MW ST), BOT Electr., TK
-Poland, Siekierki (400MW ST), Vattenfall, TK
2009 orders
-Adler (420MW CC), Gazenergoprom, TK Tek Mosenergo
-Yuzhnouralsk (400MW CC), OGK3, TK Atomstroyexport
2010-12
-Astrakhan (420 MW CC), Gazprom, TK
-Dzhubingskaia (210 MW CC), Gazprom/Gazenergoprom, TK
Italy
Far East and Iran
2009 orders
-Aprilia (800MW CC), Sorgenia, TK Ansaldo Energia
-Torino Nord (400MW CC), Iride Energia, Package Bid
2010-12
- Ciclo Combinato 800MW, TK
- Ciclo Combinato 400 MW, TK
- Ciclo USC Vapore 3x660 MW, TK
-- ……
-- ……
2009 orders
-Bangladesh, Sylhet (150MW OC), Bangladesh Power Develp Board,
TK Shanghay Electric
2010-2012
-Bangladesh, Siddhirganji (300MW OC), Electricity Generation Comp
any of Bangladesh, TK
-Iran, (800MW CC), Kave Khuzestan Aluminum Co, TK
Middle East
Americas (only 50 Hz market)
2009 orders
-Chile, Puerto Coronel 1(370MW ST), Colbun SA, TK
Tecnimont
2010-12
-Chile, Punta Alcade (2x375MW ST), Endesa Chile, TK??
Africa
2009 orders
-UAE , Shuweithat (1500MW CC), GDF, TK Marubeni
-Syria, Deir-Ali 2 (800MW CC) , PEEGT, TK Metka
2010-12
-UAE , Hassyan I, II, III (3x1500MW CC), DEWA, TK
-Kuwait, Az Zour North I (1500MW CC), MEW, TK
2010-12
-Algeria, Sousse (400MW CC), STEG, IPP Peaking Plant
-Algeria, Ras Djanet (2x400MW CC), Sonelgas, TK
-South Africa (4x150MW OC), GdF Suez, IPP Peaking Plant
Previsioni di Mercato Oil&Gas - Raffinazione,
Chimico e Petrolchimico, Offshore,
energia convenzionale e alternativa
Equipment vs. Turn-Key Approach to Projects
Source: Frost & Sullivan
Previsioni di Mercato Oil&Gas - Raffinazione,
Chimico e Petrolchimico, Offshore,
energia convenzionale e alternativa
AEN Profile
(Back-Up)
Previsioni di Mercato Oil&Gas - Raffinazione,
Chimico e Petrolchimico, Offshore,
energia convenzionale e alternativa
Company Profile
Ansaldo Energia, a Finmeccanica company, is a distinguished player in the energy
industry, providing reliable and flexible solutions across a complete and innovative
product portfolio
EPC
New Units
Equipment
’08 Orders: 1.371M!
’08 Revenues:
987M!
•
•
Service
Nuclear
’08 Orders:
640M!
’08 Revenues: 315M!
’08Orders:
41M!
’08 Revenues: 31M!
A worldwide recognized brand in Power Generation with an installed capacity of more than
170,000 MW over 1,700 projects completed, in over 90 countries
Headquartered in Genoa (Italy) with major regional offices in USA, Africa, Gulf, India and
about 3,000 employees
Product
Previsioni di Mercato Oil&Gas - Raffinazione,
Chimico e Petrolchimico, Offshore,
Portfolio energia convenzionale e alternativa
MAIN COMPONENTS (OEM)
Gas Turbines
Steam Turbines
Generators
POWER PLANTS
SERVICE OEM &
Previsioni di Mercato Oil&Gas - Raffinazione,
Chimico e Petrolchimico, Offshore,
energia convenzionale e alternativa
Installed power worldwide: 176,457 MW (As of Dec. 08)
Thermoelectric
Hydroelectric
Power Plants
Power Plants
99,372 MW
130,709 MW
45,748 MW
33,882 MW
31,778 MW
11,425 MW
Steam Turbines
Gas Turbines
Turbogenerators
Hydrogenerators
89,035 MW
25,964 MW
106,000 MVA
26,506 MVA