Antonio Guarnieri
In collaborazione con i partners di progetto
CMCC – Centro euro-Mediterraneo per i Cambiamenti Climatici
Italian Ministry for the Environment, Land and Sea
Il Progetto ADRICOSM-STAR
per gli impatti climatici
Ministry for the
Environment, Land, and Sea
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•
At the World Summit on Sustainable Development of
Johannesburg in September 2002, ADRICOSM was accepted
as a Partnership in the cluster of oceans/coasts/fisheries.
•
The Italian Ministry of Environment and Territory started an
ADRICOSM Pilot Project in October 2001 to develop the
monitoring and modelling of the Adriatic currents and
ecosystem in order to detect changes and mitigate impacts
•
Other Projects will start in 2004 that will continue the
ADRICOSM developments
•
The last of these projects is ADRICOSM-STAR: ADRICOSM
INTEGRATED RIVER BASIN AND COASTAL ZONE
MANAGEMENT SYSTEM: MONTENEGRO COASTAL AREA
AND BOJANA RIVER CATCHMENT (funded by the Italian
Ministry for Environment Land and Sea). Dec 2006 – Jun 2010
CMCC – Centro euro-Mediterraneo per i Cambiamenti Climatici
Italian Ministry for the Environment, Land and Sea
Genesis of ADRICOSM
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CMCC (Coordinator)
INGV (Bologna)
CIRSA (Bologna)
SGI (Padova)
UNITUS (La Tuscia)
CNR-ISAC (Roma)
OGS (Trieste)
CNR-ISMAR-BOLOGNA
CETI (Podgorica)
CNR-ISMAR-ANCONA
IMB (Kotor)
ENEA (La Spezia)
HIM (Podgorica)
ISPRA (Roma)
IEWE (Tirana)
CLU (Bologna)
UB (Serbia)
ERNST & YOUNG (Milano)
SEWA (Serbia)
CMCC – Centro euro-Mediterraneo per i Cambiamenti Climatici
Italian Ministry for the Environment, Land and Sea
The Project’s Partners
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MODULE
WORKPACKAGE NAME
RESPONSIBLE
PARTNER
WP1- Assessment of environmental quality in the
area of interest
CETI
DESCRIPTIVE/
OBSERVATIONAL
MODULE
WP2- Data collection program for model
calibration/validation
and
monitoring IMB
upgrades
WP3- Design and implementation of in situ
HI-M
and satellite monitoring system
MODELING/
PREDICTIVE MODULE
WP4Calibration/validation
hydrological,
river
basin
oceanographic numerical models
of
and INGV
WP5- Integrated modeling of hydrology,
SGI
river basin and coastal circulation
WP6- Scenario experiments for long term
CMCC
planning
INFORMATION SYSTEM
MODULE
WP7- Information Management System for ENEA
the ADRICOSM-STAR data
CMCC – Centro euro-Mediterraneo per i Cambiamenti Climatici
Italian Ministry for the Environment, Land and Sea
The project working structure
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Boka Kotorska Bay
Bojana River
and Skadar
Lake
Catchment
Ulcinj
CMCC – Centro euro-Mediterraneo per i Cambiamenti Climatici
Italian Ministry for the Environment, Land and Sea
The areas of interest
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CMCC – Centro euro-Mediterraneo per i Cambiamenti Climatici
Italian Ministry for the Environment, Land and Sea
Project main objectives
•
Continue and further develop the ADRICOSM
forecasting system for the Adriatic Sea and its coastal
areas with particular emphasis to the Montenegro
coastal area.
•
Develop
high resolution hydro-meteorological
modelling for the large Montenegro area;
•
Design and partially implement a monitoring system for
the surface water cycle and the water quality in the river
and coastal area of Montenegro
•
Develop and validate modelling tools for the urban,
surface, underground water and coastal currents in the
Bojana river catchment and Montenegro coastal area
•
Produce downscaled IPCC climate change scenario
projections to study impact on the water cycle and on
the sediment transport in the Bojana river and the
Montenegro coastal area
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Multidisciplinary
Multi-platform
Observing system
(satellites,
atmospheric
and
oceanographic
stations, river, urban
and underground
water monitoring)
Numerical
models of the
atmosphere,
marine and river
hydrodynamcs,
underground waters
coupled to water
quality and
sediment
transport
Climate change
scenario simulations
coupled
to regional/local
models
input data to environmental managers and policy makers
for EMERGENCY management and the PROTECTION of
CMCC – Centro euro-Mediterraneo per i Cambiamenti Climatici
Italian Ministry for the Environment, Land and Sea
ADRICOSM-STAR water integrated
monitoring and modelling approach
surface, underground, marine and urban waters
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Main procurement and new installations
•1 Water quality station in Bokakotorska Bay
•1 Water quality station along the Bojana River
•1 Hydrological station (Fraskanjel, with level and flow
of the Bojana River)
•1 Hydrological and mareographic station (Bar)
•3 Meteorological stations (Bar, Herceg Novi, Ulcinj)
CMCC – Centro euro-Mediterraneo per i Cambiamenti Climatici
Italian Ministry for the Environment, Land and Sea
The main monitoring results
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In situ and remote activities
• Consolidation of operational satellite monitoring and
new operational
TSM
CDOM
K490
Chl-a
• Consolidation of VOS marine parameters and new
meteorologiacal monitoring
Jan 2009, Bari-Durres
Temperature
WIND
CMCC – Centro euro-Mediterraneo per i Cambiamenti Climatici
Italian Ministry for the Environment, Land and Sea
The main monitoring results
WIND
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In situ activities
• New mesoscale and seasonal cruises have been
carried on along the coast of Montenegro
Seasonal Surface Temperature
NOV
JAN
MAY
• HR bathymetric and seismological campaigns carried
out in the Bokakotorska bay and along the coastal area
JUN
CMCC – Centro euro-Mediterraneo per i Cambiamenti Climatici
Italian Ministry for the Environment, Land and Sea
The main monitoring results
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ATMOSPHERE
EBU-POM
RIVER HYDRAULICS
Flow at
SK Lake
MIKE11
Bojana Flow &
sediment transport
HYDROLOGY
HYPROM
SSH at
Bojana
OCEANGRAPHY
T2m,U10m,V10m,
CC,Pr,RelHum
CMCC – Centro euro-Mediterraneo per i Cambiamenti Climatici
Italian Ministry for the Environment, Land and Sea
Models integration
AREG
SWAN
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Italian Ministry for the Environment, Land and Sea
Atmosphere: scenarios comparison
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Dominio NMM a 12 km
Ulcinj station
Cumulated precipitation
Year 2003
Podgorica station
Flow,Year 2003
Ulcinj
CMCC – Centro euro-Mediterraneo per i Cambiamenti Climatici
Italian Ministry for the Environment, Land and Sea
Hydro-metereology: validation
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Italian Ministry for the Environment, Land and Sea
Hydro-metereology: future scenarios
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Flow from Skadar Lake
Flow from Drin River
Upstream
boundary
conditions:
HYPROM modelled water flow
time series from Skadar Lake
and Drin River HPP dams flow
Downstream
boundary
condition:
2003 tide levels from
oceanographic model
Downstream
boundary
CMCC – Centro euro-Mediterraneo per i Cambiamenti Climatici
Italian Ministry for the Environment, Land and Sea
Fluvial hydraulics: Buna/Bojana river model
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Observed Yearly Mean= 646.78
mc/s (years1965-1985)
Simulated Yearly Mean=
482.30 mc/s
OBS climatology (1965-1985)
CMCC – Centro euro-Mediterraneo per i Cambiamenti Climatici
Italian Ministry for the Environment, Land and Sea
Fluvial hydraulics:Present and future scenario
Simulated Mike11
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0.0
-0.5
-1.0
start 2020
end 2030
-1.5
-2.0
-2.5
-3.0
-3.5
-4.0
Bed level Bojana - left branch (start 2020 - end 2030)
-4.5
-3.0
-5.0
150
550
950
1350
-3.5
1750
2150
2550
2950
Distance (m)
start 2020
-4.0
-4.5
-5.0
end 2030
CMCC – Centro euro-Mediterraneo per i Cambiamenti Climatici
Bed level Bojana - right branch (start 2020 - end 2030)
Bed Level (m a.s.l.)
Land and Sea
Environment,
Italian Ministry for the
Bed Level
(m a.s.l.)
Fluvial hydraulics: future scenario
-5.5
-6.0
-6.5
-7.0
0
400
800
1200
1600
Distance (m)
2000
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nazionale3200
di
2400
2800
Oceanografia Operativa
WINTER TEMPERATURE
AND CURRENTS (2m)
SUMMER TEMPERATURE
AND CURRENTS (2m)
Present
(2003-2008)
Future
(2025-2030)
CMCC – Centro euro-Mediterraneo per i Cambiamenti Climatici
Italian Ministry for the Environment, Land and Sea
Oceanography: comparison of scenarios
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ECMWF
EBU
CMCC – Centro euro-Mediterraneo per i Cambiamenti Climatici
Italian Ministry for the Environment, Land and Sea
Oceanography: time evolution of basin mean
surface temperature and salinity
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Sea storms persistance - 5 years average
9
80
8
70
7
60
6
Hours
Events
50
5
4
40
30
3
20
2
10
1
0
0
2001-2005
2006-2010
2010-2015
2016-2020
2021-2025
2026-2030
2001-2005
2006-2010
Period
2010-2015
2016-2020
2021-2025
2026-2030
Period
Significant wave hight of the sea storm
peak – 5 year average
Standard deviation of the sea storms
duration – 5 year average
Standard Deviation of the sea storm persistance - 5 years average
Significant wave height of the sea storm peak - 5 years average
1.55
90
80
1.5
Significant wave height (m)
70
60
50
40
30
20
1.45
1.4
CMCC – Centro euro-Mediterraneo per i Cambiamenti Climatici
Sea storms duration – 5 year average
Number of sea storms in 1 year - 5 year
average
Number of sea storms in 1 year - 5 years average
Hours
Italian Ministry for the Environment, Land and Sea
Wave model: climate scenario results
1.35
1.3
10
0
1.25
2001-2005
2006-2010
2010-2015
2016-2020
Period
2021-2025
2026-2030
2001-2005
2006-2010
2010-2015
2016-2020
2021-2025
2026-2030
Period
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• Extreme rain falls from December last year until January
10th 2010, caused serious material damage. Great
number of houses in the surrounding area of the Skadar
Lake, the municipality of Ulcinj, have been flooded.
Some 1100 persons or 245 households had to be
evacuated
Buna-Drin junction, Flood of January 2010
CMCC – Centro euro-Mediterraneo per i Cambiamenti Climatici
Italian Ministry for the Environment, Land and Sea
ADRICOSM-STAR at work:
the January 2010 flood event
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Italian Ministry for the Environment, Land and Sea
ADRICOSM-STAR at work:
Water level from Fraskanjel station and from the circulation
model
Buna/Bojana River Water Level (cm) at Fraskanjel
Main Flood
Event
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• Adricosm-Star project has succesfully buit up a
multidisciplinary monitoring/modeling integrated platform
in the area of Montenegro
• Climate change impact studies on the water resource
have been carried on for the first time at a local regional
scale in the Adriatic/Montenegrin area
• This integration constitutes the foundations for the
development of a Decision Support System (DSS) for:
• water level extremes early warning
CMCC – Centro euro-Mediterraneo per i Cambiamenti Climatici
Italian Ministry for the Environment, Land and Sea
CONCLUSIONS
• climate change water resources scenarios in the
2020-2030
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