on the link between
global (climate) change research
and policy making
Frank Raes
Climate Change Unit
Institute for Environment and Sustainability
Joint Research Centre
European Commission
JRC- Brussels- PF
28 June 2005, Brussels
JRC Brussels
Kyoto Protocol into force
Kyoto Protocol
UNFCCC
JRC- Brussels- PF
JRC Brussels
charles david keeling
definizione di una politica per combattere il cambiamento climatico
PROTOCOLLO DI KYOTO
socio
economic
drivers
energy
demand &
supply
fossil
fuel
use
costc
GHG emissions
JRC- Brussels- PF
no
JRC Brussels
emissions < - 8%
cheapest controls ?
yes
cost effective
climate change
policy
“economy” and climate change
some numbers
• economic damage of floods in 2002: ~17 billion € (EEA)
• crop loss and forest fires in 2003: ~ 13 billion € (UNEP)
• heat related casualties in 2003: ~ 35.000 (UNEP) (35 billion € …)
• cost of implementing Kyoto Protocol in EU25: ~ 1 to 3.5 billion €/yr
• cost for security measures at 2004 Olympic Games: ~ 1 billion €
• money spent by Italians in Lotterie, etc in 2004: 23 billion €
• net profit made by BP in 2004: 12 billion €
• Tsunami solidarity funds promised by world: 3 - 5 billion €
World can cope with (= adapt to) present effects of climate change!
BUT: are there limits to adaptation to future climate change?
Implementing the Kyoto
JRC- Brussels- PFProtocol (= start mitigation) is feasible!
BUT: how much mitigation is needed to stabilize climate
at “safe” levels ?
JRC Brussels
definizione di una politica per combattere il cambiamento climatico
PROTOCOLLO DI KYOTO
socio
economic
drivers
energy
demand &
supply
fossil
fuel
use
costc
GHG emissions
JRC- Brussels- PF
no
JRC Brussels
emissions < - 8%
cheapest controls ?
yes
cost effective
climate change
policy
definizione di una politica per combattere il cambiamento climatico
post KYOTO
socio
economic
drivers
energy
demand &
supply
fossil
fuel
use
costc
GHG emissions
JRC- Brussels- PF
no avoid dangerous yes
climate change ?
JRC Brussels
cost effective
climate change
policy
definizione di una politica per combattere il cambiamento climatico
post KYOTO
socio
economic
drivers
energy
demand &
supply
fossil
fuel
use
costc
GHG emissions
JRC- Brussels- PF
no
JRC Brussels
EU 2 C target
yes
cost effective
climate change
policy
JRC- Brussels- PF
IPCC TAR
JRC Brussels
JRC- Brussels- PF
JRC Brussels
CO2 emission reductions needed
to achieve EU 2 ºC objective
current technologies that
reduce each 25 GtC over next 50 yrs
-efficient cars
-reduced car use
-efficient buildings
-coal to methane switch
-coal + CO2 capture and storage
-nuclear energy
-wind energy
-photo-voltaic
-bio-fuels
-reduced deforestation, reforestation
-conservation tillage
A2
18
CO2 Emissions (GtC)
16
14
12
10
200 GtC
8
B1
6
4
2
JRC- Brussels- PF
2000
JRC Brussels
Pacala & Socolow, Science 305, 2004
stabilization at 450 CO2 equivalent
~50 % probability to achieve 2 ºC
2050
2100
Malte Meinshausen, ETH, Zurich
definizione di una politica integrata
no
effects < thresholds ?
cheapest controls ?
socio
economic
drivers
fossil
fuel
use
energy
demand &
supply
costc
end-of-pipe
control
technology
levels & effects of
conventional
Air Pollution
cost saving
GHG emissions
JRC- Brussels- PF
no
JRC Brussels
emissions < - 8%
cheapest controls ?
yes
integrated
cost effective
policy
yes
definizione di una politica integrata
no
effects < thresholds ?
cheapest controls ?
socio
economic
drivers
fossil
fuel
use
energy
demand &
supply
costc
end-of-pipe
control
technology
levels & effects of
conventional
Air Pollution
cost saving
GHG emissions
JRC- Brussels- PF
no avoid dangereous yes
climate change ?
JRC Brussels
integrated
cost effective
policy
yes
definizione di una politica per combattere l’inquinamento atmosferico
e.g.:
National Emission Ceilings Directive
no
effects < thresholds ?
cheapest controls ?
fossil
fuel
use
end-of-pipe
control
technology
levels & effects of
conventional
Air Pollution
costA
JRC- Brussels- PF
JRC Brussels
cost effective
air pollution
policy
yes
definizione di una politica integrata
no
effects < thresholds ?
cheapest controls ?
socio
economic
drivers
fossil
fuel
use
energy
demand &
supply
costc
end-of-pipe
control
technology
levels & effects of
conventional
Air Pollution
cost saving
GHG emissions
JRC- Brussels- PF
no
JRC Brussels
emissions < - 8%
cheapest controls ?
yes
integrated
cost effective
policy
yes
COMPARTIMENTALIZATION IN
ATMOSPHERIC CHEMISTRY RESEARCH Anno 2001
local scales
regional scales
EUROTRAC
top-down
EC DG RTD projects
fundamental research
IGAC
research
EUROTRAC
JRC- Brussels- PF
EC DG RTD projects
EUROTRAC
JRC Brussels IGAC
global scales
IGAC
bottom up
EUROTRAC IGAC
applied research
WGE’s EMEP
policy making
EC DG ENV
CLTRAP
FCCC
ATMOSPHERIC CHEMISTRY RESEARCH Anno 2005
the overall goals of ACCENT are:
• to promote a common European strategy for integrated research
local to global scales
atmospheric change / economic drivers
• to develop durable means of communication and collaboration
JRC- BrusselsPF
between a broad
research
community
• to optimize the interactions with policy-makers and the public
JRC Brussels
JRC- Brussels- PF
JRC Brussels
1995
1990
1985
1980
2000
1975
JRC Brussels
integrated assessment
scientific integration
scientific research
JRC- Brussels- PF
public awareness
politics
policy making
Linking Science and Policy
2005
1995
1990
1985
1980
2000
1975
JRC Brussels
integrated assessment
scientific integration
scientific research
JRC- Brussels- PF
public awareness
politics
policy making
Linking Science and Policy
2005
Climate Change Science and Policy
IGBP
SBSTA COP
JRC- Brussels- PF
public awareness
1980
IPCC
Marrakech
politics
1985
IPCC
policy making
1990
scientific integration
1995
scientific research
2000
integrated assessment
IPCC
2005
Kyoto
FCCC
ozone hole
US heat wave
acid rain
1975
JRC Brussels
CO2 record
Mauna Loa
GLOBAL CHANGE priority
THE AMSTERDAM DECLARATION
July 2001
WCRP IGBP IHDP DIVERSITAS
The busines-as-usual way of dealing with the Earth
is unsustainable and has to be replaced by
deliberate strategies of good management
= POLICY !
A new system of global environmental science is required
which must integrate across disciplines, environment and
development issues, and the natural and social sciences
= INTERACTION between SCIENCE and POLICY !
JRC- Brussels- PF
JRC Brussels