Assessing the maximum penetration of non-programmable RES generation in power systems with predominant thermal generation Bruno Cova Source: AUE Head of Power Systems, Markets and Regulatory Division Consulting, Solutions & Services Renewable Energy Seminar, Amman, 27th-28th March 2012 Agenda Trends towards a progressive decarbonisation of power systems Increasing penetration of power generation from non-programmable RES Problems to overcome to enhance generation from non-programmable RES Possible solutions: Enhancing flexibility of the power system (generation / grid / demand) The role of transmission infrastructure (supergrids/electricity highways) The CESI experience 2 Power generation in the world Power Generation from main energy sources 16% 2% COAL 40% GAS OIL NUCLEAR HYDRO 15% RENEWABLE - Biomass - Solar - Wind - Geothermal 7% 20% World power production: ~21.240 TWh Source: Enerdata Yearbook 2011 / CESI elaborations 3 Power generation in the Arab Countries Power Generation from main energy sources Typical specific CO2 emissions (kg/MWh) 95.9% 1200 1000 750÷1000 750÷850 800 500÷700 600 350÷450 3.8% FOSSIL FUEL HYDRO 0.2% 200 RENEWABLE 0 Arab Countries power production: ~815 TWh Source: AUE statistical bulletin 2010 / CESI elaborations 4 400 Coal Oil Gas OCGT Gas CCGT Trends towards a progressive decarbonisation of power systems: Europe The EU 20-20-20 objectives to meet the goal of limiting the global surface warming to +𝟐°𝑪 above pre-industrial level: 20% reduction of greenhouse gases (GHG) emissions in 2020 compared to 1990; 20% savings in energy consumption compared to baseline projections for 2020; 20% of overall energy mix from RES by the year 2020. Long-term target (not binding yet) by 2050: decarbonisation up to 80-95% compared to 1990 level Present trend of «carbon-free» generation in the EU power sector: • 2010: 48% • 2020: 54% (2000 TWh) 5 Trends towards a progressive decarbonisation of power systems: other regions China: announced in 2009 a target of CO2 emission reduction per unit of GDP between 40% and 45% compared to 2005 levels by 2020 US: Northeast’s Regional Greenhouse Gas Initiative (RGGI), the first cap-and-trade program in the United States (year 2009) to set mandatory CO2 limits for the power sector. RGGI caps power sector CO2 emissions at the 2009 levels and requires a 10% reduction by 2018 6 Trends towards a progressive decarbonisation of power systems: the Arab Countries In the Arab Countries the share of RES power generation is limited to 4% out of which 3.8% from hydro (Egypt, Sudan, Iraq, Syria, Morocco) …but Arab Countries are endowed with a huge potential of power generation from the sun and the wind Source: the Schott memorandum From 1 sq km of desert one can obtain with CSP up to: 250 GWh/year of Electricity 60 Million m³/year of Desalted Seawater 7 Source: TREC development group Increasing penetration of power generation from non-programmable RES RES generating capacity in Europe [GW] 194 250 118 200 150 114 38 78 100 50 26 0 Hydro Wind 32 12 2010 Solar Others +149% +46% Wind 8 2020 Solar Which problems already experienced in Europe ? Agenda Trends towards a progressive decarbonisation of power systems Increasing penetration of power generation from non-programmable RES Problems to overcome to enhance generation from non-programmable RES Possible solutions: Enhancing flexibility of the power system (generation / grid / demand) The role of transmission infrastructure (supergrids/electricity highways) The CESI experience 9 Problems to overcome to enhance generation from nonprogrammable RES Additional reserve and balancing capability Difficult transitions in the ramp up/down hours Voltage profile and reactive power management 10 Risk of overgeneration in low loading conditions Network congestion Curtailed RES generation !!! Critical behaviour of the system in dynamic conditions Possible solutions Maximisation of RES generation penetration while minimising the risk of curtailment: a FOUR-LAYER TOP-DOWN APPROACH 1. Reserve Criterion 2. Network connection / Static analysis 3. Reliability analysis 4. Dynamic Analysis 11 1. Reserve criterion – Part 1 Single Busbar model Additional reserve to face the unpredictability of RES is estimated Secondary and Tertiary reserves are sized to manage the frequency error and the largest generator tripping Acceptable gradients of max power increase/decrease are taken into account to confirm the limit of nondispatchable generation RES energy feed points and network constraints are not considered yet Increase in reserve requirement Source: IEA-Wind 12 1. Reserve criterion – Part 2 Results First evaluation of maximum RES penetration that can be accepted by the system Max{RES} = Demand - (∑i PMIN-i + Tertiary reserve + Additional reserve) P MAX i i Secondary increase reserve Tertiary increase reserve Renewable production Traditional generation P i 13 MIN i Additional reserve for RES Secondary decrease reserve Tertiary decrease reserve 2. Network connection / Static analysis Load flow calculations in compliance with the N and N-1 security criteria (TSO rules) The most significant load scenarios are considered (i.e. peak and low load conditions) Check the congestions on transmission network Impact of wind production on the system’s voltage profile Results Distribution of RES energy production capacity The best connection points of RES units on the network 14 3. Reliability analysis – Part 1 Different scenarios of RES penetration are evaluated to highlight the effects of increased RES generation on the secure and reliable supply of electricity 7,000 6,000 5,000 4,000 3,000 2,000 1,000 0 1 304 607 910 1213 1516 1819 2122 2425 2728 3031 3334 3637 3940 4243 4546 4849 5152 5455 5758 6061 6364 6667 6970 7273 7576 7879 8182 8485 Probabilistic analysis using Monte Carlo method and considering: The probabilistic nature of generation-transmission system over a whole year of operation The unavailability of all power system components Possible optimal exploitation of hydro sources A simplified or complete network model Annual wind production [MW] 8,000 Annual photovoltaic production [MW] 25,000 20,000 15,000 10,000 5,000 1 326 651 976 1301 1626 1951 2276 2601 2926 3251 3576 3901 4226 4551 4876 5201 5526 5851 6176 6501 6826 7151 7476 7801 8126 8451 0 15 3. Reliability analysis – Part 2 LOLE [h/year] Results 25 Three meaningful “Risk Indices”: • Loss Of Load Expectation • Loss Of Load Probability • Expected Energy Not Supplied Reliability of the system to fulfil power demand The maximum RES penetration compliant with reliability standards 20 15 Scenario A Scenario B Bound 10 5 0 EENS [p.u.] LOLP [%] Wind /solar curtailment due to network element overloads, lack of interconnection or minimum stable operation of conventional units in low load condition Possible network reinforcements, new storage devices and reserve margins able to preserve the static reliability and the security of the system 16 4. Dynamic Analysis – Part 1 Check the fluctuations due to RES production intermittency (mainly frequency due to wind) 17 4. Dynamic Analysis – Part 2 Analysis of network response, voltages and frequency to major fault events Results Measures to avoid any RES production restriction due to dynamic constraints 18 Possible solutions Energy storage Two levels: small scale to smooth high frequency low amplitude intermittency: batteries at s/s large scale for systemwide stabilisation: hydro pumping / different policies for unit commitment : higher rate of start up/ shut down of unit : OC TG Demand responsiveness Demand response from users ……. including electric vehicles 19 The role of transmission infrastructure: the electricity highways Source EC 20 The role of transmission infrastructure: electricity highways between Europe and the MENA region 21 Agenda Trends towards a progressive decarbonisation of power systems Increasing penetration of power generation from non-programmable RES Problems to overcome to enhance generation from non-programmable RES Possible solutions: Enhancing flexibility of the power system (generation / grid / demand) The role of transmission infrastructure (supergrids/electricity highways) The CESI experience 22 CESI experience Max penetration of RES in Tunisia Max wind generation penetration in Jordan HVDC to Europe PREVISIONNEL AN 2016 Renewable Integration Development Programme – Ireland 23 Max wind generation penetration in Italy End of Presentation 24 Problems to overcome to enhance generation from nonprogrammable RES Need for additional reserve to cope with the intermittency of non-programmable RES generation Increase in reserve requirement Solar (PV) generation is treated like wind production with additional reserve equal to the half of wind one P i MAX i Source: IEA-Wind Tertiary increase reserve Generated power Penetration: wind / solar production [MW] / demand Additional reserve [%]: percentage of wind / solar generation Additional increase reserve Renewable production Wind + solar Traditional generation P i 25 Secondary increase reserve MIN i Secondary decrese reserve Additional decrease reserve Tertiary decrease reserve Problems to overcome to enhance generation from nonprogrammable RES Excessive RES generation over the instantaneous demand: risk of overgeneration Possible voltage problems Downward wind modulation Wind generation in Spain on 4th and 5th March 2008 (source REE) 26 Problems to overcome to enhance generation from nonprogrammable RES Coping with sharp variations of RES generation Ramp rate up to 10% of installed wind capacity per hour Example of Spain Situation 9th Mai 2005 27 Problems to overcome to enhance generation from nonprogrammable RES Difficult upward/downward transitions No correlation between wind/sun generation and demand !!! demand Difficult transitions during load ramp up/down Gradient of generation Load Request Wind + Solar Example of Spain 28 wind Time (min) Problems to overcome to enhance generation from nonprogrammable RES Network congestions caused by RES generation: Sun and wind are location dependent – often remote locations w.r.t. the demand centres No correlation between demand and non-programmable RES generation location - power flowing on longer patterns through the network with risk of creating “scattered” congestions also relatively far away from RES generation areas Expected congestion in the 150 kV of the Italian peninsular regions due to WF (year 2009) – (source: CIGRE, CESI-Terna paper) 29 Problems to overcome to enhance generation from nonprogrammable RES Solar Radiation (W/m2) Typical solar radiation 1000.00 Critical dynamic behavior of the system caused by 800.00 Radiation (W/m^2) Intermittency in RES generation causing a higher stress on the conventional units to balance the system 900.00 700.00 600.00 Winter 500.00 Summer 400.00 300.00 200.00 100.00 0.00 1 3 5 7 9 11 13 Hours Faults (e.g.: short circuits on a network component) Frequency (Hz) Risk of cascading effect leading to the system collapse 30 15 17 19 21 23 Problems to overcome to enhance generation from nonprogrammable RES Different feasible penetration levels of non-programmable RES generation 31 Curtailed non-progr. RES gen. (In)flexibility of power plants (in)adequacy of the transmission /distribution infrastructures (including cross-border lines) 40% Possibility of energy storage 35% Demand responsiveness 30% 25% 20% 15% 28% 22% 10% 5% 16% 10% 5% 0% 1,000 2,000 3,000 4,000 Installed RES capacity [MW] 5,000 RES penetration for each area Risks of RES generation curtailment depending on: