QPF Results of sensitivity
studies for Polish cases.
Katarzyna Starosta, Joanna Linkowska,Witold Interewicz
Institute of Meteorology and Water Management, Warsaw,Poland
9th COSMO General Meeting, 18-21 September 2007, Athens (Greece)
Our activity in QPF for Poland
• Selection and description of experimental
days: 3 May, 4 May, 10 June, 9 August
2005
• QPF sensitivity experiment (model 3.19
run for 21 experiments, model 4.0 run for
6 experiments, 4 days).
• Post-processing and statistics.
• Results and conclusions.
Experimental Model Domain
• Domain size (in nodes - longitude, latitude): ( 1:200 ,
1:200 ),
• subdomain for Poland: ( 31:151 , 51:151 ).
• Domain size (in rotated coordinates - longitude, latitude):
( 0.0 : 12.4375 , -4.1 : 8.3375 ),
• sudomain for Poland: ( 1.875 : 9.375 , -0.975 : 5.275 ).
• Domain size (in rotated coordinates - lower left, upper
right corner): ( (0.0,-4.1) , (12.4375,8.3375) ),
• subdomain for Poland: ( (1.875,-0.975) , (9.375,5.275) )
• Horizontal step (degrees): 0.0625 (~7km),
• 40 levels.
• Rotated North Pole coordinates (longitude, latitude): 170.0 , 40.0.
Selection of cases.
The precipitation over Poland is overpredicted.
The overestimation is much bigger for heavy
precipitation especially in summer.The major
criteria used to choosing the events were the
overestimation of maximum values or false
prediction of precipitation occurrence. The four
precipitation events were selected , dominated
by grid scale precipitation .
3 May 2005
Observation
Model 4.0 CTRL
Synoptic situation
4 May 2005
Observation
Model 4.0 CTRL
Synoptic situation
10 June 2005
Observation
Model 4.0 CTRL
Synoptic situation
9 August 2005
Model 4.0 CTRL
Observation
Synoptic situation
CTRL
FOR
OBS
experiments
FOR
OBS
STO250
STO050
RLAM50
OBS
RLAM01
CONoff
CONkfb
CONmod
Micro3
FOR
Micro2
Micro1
Oro
experiments
Rktp
Rkbott
Rksl3
LFsl3
DT20
QV110
QV090
STO250
STO050
RLAM50
RLAM01
CONoff
CONkfb
CONmod
Micro3
Micro2
Micro1
Oro
Rktp
Rkbott
Rksl3
LFsl3
DT20
QV110
QV090
WSO120
WSO080
CTRL
STO250
STO050
RLAM50
RLAM01
CONoff
CONkfb
CONmod
Micro3
Micro2
Micro1
Oro
Rktp
Rkbott
Rksl3
LFsl3
DT20
QV110
QV090
WSO120
mm
QPF experiments, Poland, 3 May 2005 - average
precipitation.
WSO120
QPF experiments, Poland, 10 June 2005 - average
precipitation.
WSO080
30
25
20
15
10
5
0
mm
CTRL
WSO080
mm
20
15
10
5
0
CTRL
STO250
STO050
RLAM50
OBS
RLAM01
CONoff
CONkfb
CONmod
Micro3
FOR
Micro2
Micro1
Oro
Rktp
Rkbott
Rksl3
LFsl3
DT20
QV110
QV090
WSO120
WSO080
mm
Average precipitation experiments 0-20
QPF experiments, Poland, 4 May 2005 - average
precipitation.
20
15
10
5
0
experiments
QPF experiments, Poland, 9 August 2005 - average
precipitation.
8
6
4
2
0
experiments
0
CTRL
FOR
OBS
STO250
STO050
RLAM50
RLAM01
CONoff
CONkfb
CONmod
Micro3
Micro2
0
FOR
experiments
OBS
STO250
STO050
RLAM50
experiments
RLAM01
CONoff
CONkfb
CONmod
Micro3
Micro2
FOR
Micro1
Oro
Rktp
OBS
Rkbott
Rksl3
LFsl3
DT20
QV110
QV090
QPF experiments, Poland, 10 June 2005 - maximum
precipitation .
WSO120
50
CTRL
0
STO250
STO050
RLAM50
RLAM01
CONoff
CONkfb
CONmod
Micro3
Micro2
Micro1
Oro
Rktp
Rkbott
Rksl3
LFsl3
DT20
QV110
QV090
WSO120
WSO080
50
mm
100
CTRL
STO250
STO050
RLAM50
RLAM01
CONoff
CONkfb
CONmod
Micro3
Micro2
Micro1
Oro
Rktp
Rkbott
Rksl3
LFsl3
DT20
QV110
QV090
WSO120
mm
QPF experiments, Poland, 3 May 2005 - maximum
precipitation .
WSO080
100
mm
FOR
Micro1
Oro
Rktp
Rkbott
Rksl3
LFsl3
DT20
QV110
QV090
WSO120
WSO080
CTRL
0
WSO080
mm
Maximum precipitation experiments 0-20
QPF experiments, Poland, 4 May 2005 - maximum
precipitation .
150
100
50
OBS
experiments
QPF experiments, Poland, 9 August - maximum
precipitation .
150
100
50
experiments
Total, gride scale and convective , maximum and average precipitation,
experiments A1-A6
3 May 2005
4 May 2005
Max
FOR
Max
CON
Max
GSP
Aver
FOR
Aver
CON
Aver
GSP
CON
%
GSP
%
Max
FOR
Max
CON
Max
GSP
Aver
FOR
Aver
CON
Aver
GSP
CON
%
GSP
%
Exp.A1
CTRL4.0
88.7
34.9
86.4
10.6
3.9
6.7
36.8
62.2
61.1
17.0
61.1
11.8
2.3
9.5
19.5
80.5
Exp.A2
4.0+QV090+RK
36.0
19.4
31.5
8.4
3.7
4.7
44.1
55.9
66.3
11.4
64.4
8.4
2.0
6.4
23.8
76.2
Exp.A3
4.0+CONkfb
49.5
19.1
44.2
8.2
5.4
2.8
65.9
34.1
53.3
17.5
51.6
9.4
2.6
6.8
27.7
72.3
41.2
24.7
29.7
7.5
4.8
2.7
64.0
36.0
38.0
12.3
36.0
8.1
2.6
5.5
32.1
67.9
Exp.A5
4.0+CONmod
69.4
13.9
66.3
10.1
2.3
7.8
22.8
77.2
86.7
8.7
86.6
12.5
0.9
11.6
7.2
92.8
Exp.A6
4.0+QV090+RK+CONm
od
41.5
8.5
36.5
6.7
1.6
5.1
23.9
76.1
59.5
3.8
58.0
8.3
0.6
7.7
7.2
92.8
Exp.A4
4.0+QV090+RK+CONkf
b
Total, gride scale and convective , maximum and average
precipitation, experiments A1-A6
10 June 2005
9 August 2005
Max
FOR
Max
CON
Max
GSP
Aver
FOR
Aver
CON
Aver
GSP
CO
N
%
GS
P
%
Max
FO
R
Max
CON
Max
GS
P
Aver
FOR
Aver
CON
Aver
GSP
CON
%
GSP
%
Exp.A1
CTRL4.0
123.2
21.2
118.6
17.1
1.8
15.3
10.5
89.5
84.1
6.4
83.8
4.3
0.9
3.4
20.9
79.1
Exp.A2
4.0+QV090+RK
67.3
17.4
67.3
11.0
1.3
9.7
11.8
88.2
65.8
4.1
65.5
3.1
0.4
2.7
12.9
87.1
Exp.A3
4.0+CONkfb
100.7
24.2
94.4
15.3
3.3
11.9
22.2
77.8
99.5
10.2
89.3
4.0
0.9
3.1
22.5
77.5
Exp.A4
4.0+QV090+RK+CONkfb
60.3
26.3
59.5
10.2
2.4
7.7
24.5
75.5
77.0
9.5
69.1
3.2
0.8
2.4
25
75
Exp.A5
4.0+CONmod
121.3
12.4
119.0
17.5
0.8
16.7
4.6
95.4
93.2
2.6
93.2
4.1
0.4
3.7
9.8
90.2
Exp.A6
4.0+QV090+RK+CONmod
76.0
8.3
75.4
11.4
0.5
10.9
4.4
95.6
61.6
3.1
61.6
3.0
0.2
2.8
6.7
93.3
Results of experiments.
CTRL 3.19
CTRL 4.0
Average
Maximum
Average
Maximum
3 May
underpredicted
overpredicted
good
overpredicted
4 May
good
overpredicted
good
overpredicted
10 June
overpredicted
overpredicted
overpredicted
overpredicted
9 August
overpredicted
overpredicted
overpredicted
overpredicted
The best results:
Version
3.19
4.0
Date
Average
Maximum
Average
Maximum
3 May
Rktp
Rksl3
Rkbott
Rktp
Rkbott
Mikro1
CTRL
CONmod
QV090+RK
4 May
CTRL
QV110
RLAM01
LFsl3
Micro1
Oro
Micro2
CTRL
CONmod
QV090+RK
10 June
WSO080
DT20
QV080+RK+CONkfb
QV090+RK+CONmod
9 August
Rksl3
CONkfb
QV090+RK+CONmod
Micro1
Oro
Micro2