The CAMO Workshop on Complex Networks
and Infrastructure Protection, 2006
ENTE PER LE NUOVE TECNOLOGIE,
L’ENERGIA E L’AMBIENTE
Vulnerability of
Human Organizations
ENEA’s Research
Adam Maria Gadomski
http://erg4146.casaccia.enea.it
Research Center Casaccia, 05 June 2006
High-Intelligence &
Decision Research Group
The presentation is an Intellectual Property of the author.
Unità di Calcolo e
Modellistica
Vulnerability of Human Organizations: ENEA’s Research
Adam M. Gadomski, CAMO – ENEA – Casaccia – ed. C59 sala conferenze – 05 June 2006
CONTENS
INTRODUCTION
 ENEA’s Research Objectives
 Context & Application Domains
THEORETICAL BASES
 Basic Strategy
EXPERIMENTS
 TOGA Meta-Theory
 Real Case Study
 Modeling Results
 Simulation Experiments
CONCLUSIONS
© 2006, A.M.Gadomski ENEA.. All
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Vulnerability of Human Organizations: ENEA’s Research
ENEA’s Research & Technology Development
Objectives
Long term research objectives (since 1990)
Development of the Modeling Framework of
a Cognitive Synthetic/Abstract Intelligence by
the theory development and simulation experiments
Middle and short term RTD objectives (2001- 2009)
- Development of Intelligent Organization Cognitive Models
- Identification of Vulnerabilities of Human Organizations
- Simulation & Validation Experiments, test cases based
(in frame of IRRIIS and CRESCO Projects).
Adam M. Gadomski, CAMO – ENEA – RC Casaccia – ed. C59 sala conferenze – 05 June 2006
Vulnerability of Human Organizations: ENEA’s Research
ENEA’s R&T Development Objectives
Three Layers Model of an Critical Infrastructure
Organisational
Layer
Intra-dependency
Cyber
Layer
Inter-dependency
Physical
Layer
[Bologna, Balducelli, 2002]
Adam M. Gadomski, CAMO – ENEA – RC Casaccia – ed. C59 sala conferenze – 05 June 2006
Vulnerability of Human Organizations: ENEA’s Research
ENEA’s R&T Development Objectives
Organisational
Layer
Hierarchical
Decomposition (?)
…
Cyber
Layer
PROBLEMS
Identification and Improvement of
human & artificial organizations:
Physical
Layer
Functions
Processes
Structures &
their Computationability [ Gadomski]
Adam M. Gadomski, CAMO – ENEA – RC Casaccia – ed. C59 sala conferenze – 05 June 2006
Vulnerability of Human Organizations: ENEA’s Research
Context & Application Domains: Socio-Cognitive Engineering
Cognitive ---> Socio-Cognitive Modeling ---> Technological Contexts
involving
Intelligence ---> Decision-Making Modeling ---> in High-Risk Contexts
Development platform: Intelligent Agents Technologies +
Systemics Design Methodology
Expected Application Domains: Organizational Layer (IRRIIS)
What-if Simulations (CRESCO)
IDSSs and Intelligent Networks
Reinforcement of Organizational Intelligence.
Especially for Large Complex Critical Infrastructures Protection.
Adam M. Gadomski, CAMO – ENEA – RC Casaccia – ed. C59 sala conferenze – 05 June 2006
Vulnerability of Human Organizations: ENEA’s Research
Complexity of Human Organization Layer
Multi-dimensional attributes space
Complex network of interactions
Continuous & Discrete Dynamics
Physics based
statist. models
(primitive
intelligence)
Interactions with dynamic physical & social environment
Intelligent knowledge-based and interest-based human nodes
Autonomy of nodes
Emotional and Body contribution components
Cognitive factors: ill measurable, observable and monitored
New
modeling
paradigms
(high
intelligence)
It requires a new complex computational systemic
methodology for the modeling.
Adam M. Gadomski, CAMO – ENEA – RC Casaccia – ed. C59 sala conferenze – 05 June 2006
Vulnerability of Human Organizations: ENEA’s Research
THEORETICAL BASES: Specification Strategy
Required:
Generic Research Strategy
Completeness,
hypothesis:
Congruence &
Objectives
Trust
Top-down
Layered
and
…
Goal- driven
Partial
Results
Knowledge
Acquisition
Modeling
Implementation
Case-Based Final
Results
Validation
Adam M. Gadomski, CAMO – ENEA – RC Casaccia – ed. C59 sala conferenze – 05 June 2006
Vulnerability of Human Organizations: ENEA’s Research
THEORETICAL BASES
TOGA (Top-down Object-based Goal-oriented Approach) is a formal goaloriented knowledge ordering meta-theory, its objective is to enable
identification and design of complex systems & their computer simulation.
It has three basic components:
- Theory of Abstract Objects (TAO) is a first level and a basic domain
independent conceptualization system and a consensus building platform;
-Knowledge Conceptualization System (KNOCS), It includes the TOGA’s
ontology, i.e. axiomatic assumptions and basic conceptualization frameworks
for the definition and decompositions of the real-world problem into an intelligent
agent (IA) and domains of IA goal-oriented activities, i.e. the triple:
(Intelligent Entity, Environment, Interactions)
Methodological Rules System (MRUS) for the specification (if not existing
yet) or identification (if existing) of complex systems and problems; it indicates
how TAO and KNOCS have to be used during the conceptual identification,
specification and solution of real word problems.
Adam M. Gadomski, CAMO – ENEA – RC Casaccia – ed. C59 sala conferenze – 05 June 2006
Vulnerability of Human Organizations: ENEA’s Research
Essential Paradigms for Organization Modeling
URP (Universal Reasoning Paradigm) is based on the application of the data
processing scheme to the human goal-oriented reasoning. It defines “elementary
mind cell” and its components: Information, Preferences and Knowledge.
Data – are everything what is/can be processed.
Information, I - data which represent a specific property of the domain of human or artificial
agent's activity .
Preferences, P - Preference is an ordered relation among two properties of a real or abstract
domain of activity of a cognitive agent. It indicates a property with higher utility or subjective
importance.
Knowledge, K - every abstract property of a human or artificial agent which has ability to
process/transform a (quantitatively/qualitatively) information into other information.
Domain of Activity
In’ = K jn( In ), j=1, …J, for the domain  ,
where choice of K j depends on max.preferred state:
n
I
P
goal
Every new Information is processed by Knowledge:
max{ P (In)} == Goal_state,
K
and n indicates a conceptualization point-of-view.
Fig. The IPK cell it is an elementary mind cell in TOGA .
Adam M. Gadomski, CAMO – ENEA – RC Casaccia – ed. C59 sala conferenze – 05 June 2006
Vulnerability of Human Organizations: ENEA’s Research
Essential Paradigms for Organization Modeling
UMP (Universal Management Paradigm) defines necessary components of the management process and
their main interrelations according to. It includes a cooperating-manager environment from the subjective
perspective of a pre-selected decision-making manager. The figure is also a definition of characteristic property
of a management role.
ROLE def.
SUPERVISOR
tasks
information
cooperation
MANAGER
expertises
COOPERATING
MANAGER
ADVISOR
Knowledge
Preferences
information
tasks
The same
structure
INFORMER
EXECUTOR
Domain of management (Domain of activities)
IPK based definitions of
the relative roles and their
main interrelations:
role (competences,
responsibility,
privileges).
Competence – professional
knowledge
Responsibility –preferences
resulting from: tasks, duties in
a preselected domain
Privileges - access to the
information and executive
power.
Every element of the UMP structure is functional, subjective, incremental and recursive.
Adam M. Gadomski, CAMO – ENEA – RC Casaccia – ed. C59 sala conferenze – 05 June 2006
Vulnerability of Human Organizations: ENEA’s Research
Identification of Vulnerability and Trust
The presented modeling frames enable identification of different types of organizational
vulnerability: on individual levels, for group d-m, and cooperative intra-organizational types.
Using IPK
Using UMP
SUPERVISOR
Domain of Activity
tasks
Vulnerabilities
information
n
cooperation
I
COOPERATING
MANAGER
MANAGER
expertises
ADVISOR
P
K
goal
Knowledge
Preferences
information
tasks
The
same
structure
We may distinguish:
INFORMER
- Not sufficient information
EXECUTOR
- Not proper preferences
-Not adequate competences (knowledge).
Domain of management (Domain of activities)
- Improper communication
Adam M. Gadomski, CAMO – ENEA – RC Casaccia – ed. C59 sala conferenze – 05 June 2006
Vulnerability of Human Organizations: ENEA’s Research
Integrated TOGA Modeling Framework
C
Supervisor
A
Coordinator
Manager
B
Manager
Experts
Executors, informers
DOMAIN OF ACTIVITY/INTERVENTIONS
Adam M. Gadomski, CAMO – ENEA – RC Casaccia – ed. C59 sala conferenze – 05 June 2006
Vulnerability of Human Organizations: ENEA’s Research
EXPERIMENTS
Identification sequence:
• Real Cases Study
• Modeling Results
Social Consequences
Human Errors
• Simulation experiments
Human Factors
Modeling for Simulation
Adam M. Gadomski, CAMO – ENEA – RC Casaccia – ed. C59 sala conferenze – 05 June 2006
Vulnerability of Human Organizations: ENEA’s Research
Analyzed Test Cases
1. Blackout Italy/Suisse , 28 september 2003
2. Chernobyl disaster
3. Katrina hurricane
4. Airport Linate accident
5. Tsunami: international scale catastrophe –Indian
Ocean
Adam M. Gadomski, CAMO – ENEA – RC Casaccia – ed. C59 sala conferenze – 05 June 2006
Vulnerability of Human Organizations: ENEA’s Research
Modeling of Vulnerabilities Path
 Identification of the Organizations Involved (object-based)
 Identif. of Roles:
- Information acquisition and execution capacities
- Responsability and competences (IPK)
 Cause - Consequence Tables Building
 Identification of vulnerabilities in terms of UMP and
organizational IPK.
 User trust evaluation/assessment
Adam M. Gadomski, CAMO – ENEA – RC Casaccia – ed. C59 sala conferenze – 05 June 2006
Vulnerability of Human Organizations: ENEA’s Research
Test Case: Application of UMP
ITALIAN ELECTRIC SISTEM
Involved organizations
Requets
/expertises
Commissioni
Tecniche
Requets
/expertises
ENEL
tasks
information
GRTN
Ministero dell’
Economia
Aceaelectrabel
observations
actions
Disaster domain
Adam M. Gadomski, CAMO – ENEA – RC Casaccia – ed. C59 sala conferenze – 05 June 2006
Vulnerability of Human Organizations: ENEA’s Research
TSUNAMI
1. Supervisor “Onu” : la sua
supervisione si realizza mediante lo
IOC;
ONU
tasks
NOAA
information
Requets
/expertises
Requets
/expertises
PTWS
tasks
information
PTWC, USGS,
ITIC
IOC, ITIC,
CCR
MD, SMC
actions
observations
Disaster domain
6. Executor “Md, Smc” : dipartimenti locali responsabili
della gestione dell’allarme.
2. Manager “Ptws” : coordinatore
dell’attività dei centri operativi;
3. Advisor “Noaa” : centro
specializzato che si occupa della
rilevazione degli tsunami
nell’Oceano Pacifico;
4. Cooperating manager “Ioc, Itic,
Ccr” : centri di monitoraggio che
assistono il Ptws nella fase di
coordinamento delle attività;
5. Informer “Ptwc, Usgs, Itic” : si
occupa di informare i paesi e le
popolazioni che affacciano
sull'Oceano Pacifico, sul rischio
tsunami
Adam M. Gadomski, CAMO – ENEA – RC Casaccia – ed. C59 sala conferenze – 05 June 2006
Vulnerability of Human Organizations: ENEA’s Research
Blackout Italy/Suisse
Examples: Interactions between organizations
I
IPK PTWS
IPK ETRANS
I
P
P
K
K
P
IPK GRTN
P
I
K
K
IPK
ITIC
I
Objects and
relations
vulnerable
I
P
I
K
P
K
IPK MD, SMC
IPK PTWC,
USGS, ITIC
We observe different conflicts of points of view between cooperating
organizations
- A common tasks/roles platform is required.
Adam M. Gadomski, CAMO – ENEA – RC Casaccia – ed. C59 sala conferenze – 05 June 2006
Vulnerability of Human Organizations: ENEA’s Research
RISULTS
Identification of vulnerability on the IPK level and according to the UMP roles.
Ruoli
Casi
Supervisor
Manager
Cooperating
Manager
Advisor
Informer
Executor
Italian
Blackout
Chernobyl
Linate
Katrina
Tsunami
Legenda:
Il problema si è verificato sul livello delle Informazioni
Nessun valore dominante
Il problema si è verificato sul livello delle Preferenze
Il problema si è verificato sul livello delle Conoscenze
Adam M. Gadomski, CAMO – ENEA – RC Casaccia – ed. C59 sala conferenze – 05 June 2006
Vulnerability of Human Organizations: ENEA’s Research
RISULTS
Qualitative synthesis of the causes of losses during the Emergency Management
of analyzed cases.
Cause:
Naturale
Tecnologico
0
1
IPK di
managers
Strutture
Organizzative
Comunicazione
Interna
Comunicazione tra
organizzazioni
1
1
1
Casi
Blackout it.
Chernobyl
1
1
Linate
1
1
1
1
1
1
Katrina
0
1
1
1
Tsunami
0
1
1
1
Legenda:
Non essenziale per lo scenario della Risposta
0 – Non evitabili
Essenziale per lo scenario della Risposta
1 – Evitabili
Adam M. Gadomski, CAMO – ENEA – RC Casaccia – ed. C59 sala conferenze – 05 June 2006
Vulnerability of Human Organizations: ENEA’s Research
Simulation Approach: Agent-Based Architecture
Infrastructure Network
Real Emergency Domain
Agent 1
Agent 2
I1
Agent 3
Agents with
different
roles
Agent n
I2
I3
In
---
P
K
P
K
P
K
P
K
I : Information
I
P : Preferences
K : Knowledge
Agent Manager
P
K
Adam M. Gadomski, CAMO – ENEA – RC Casaccia – ed. C59 sala conferenze – 05 June 2006
Vulnerability of Human Organizations: ENEA’s Research
Incremental Simulation: Top-down design
Environ.
Activity Domain
Org. Body
IPK
Decision-Making
Acting
Incremental design experiment
(2004)
Top-down
Specializations
Adam M. Gadomski, CAMO – ENEA – RC Casaccia – ed. C59 sala conferenze – 05 June 2006
Vulnerability of Human Organizations: ENEA’s Research
Simulation: illustrative Working Test Case:
Emergence Propagation Map
Explosion in Chemical Factory
Vulnerable Node
Adam M. Gadomski, CAMO – ENEA – RC Casaccia – ed. C59 sala conferenze – 05 June 2006
Vulnerability of Human Organizations: ENEA’s Research
Simple Simulation: PROPAGATION OF EMERGENCY
WITHOUT INTERVENTION
Adam M. Gadomski, CAMO – ENEA – RC Casaccia – ed. C59 sala conferenze – 05 June 2006
Vulnerability of Human Organizations: ENEA’s Research
Simulator: IPK Bases for Organizational Decision Making
Meta-Scenario: Tasks  Actions  IPK BasesProcedures
Domains of support (activity)
Method
Method
Method
…
Information
Reasoning
Models
Preferences
Knowledge
Software :
Software :
Computational Codes
D1
D2
…
DN
IB1
IB2
…
IBN
PB1
PB2
…
PBN
KB1
KB2
…
KBN
Data Bases & Rule Bases
Adam M. Gadomski, CAMO – ENEA – RC Casaccia – ed. C59 sala conferenze – 05 June 2006
Vulnerability of Human Organizations: ENEA’s Research
Support for Emergency Management
Possible main generic functions of an Intelligent Cognitive
Advisor:
• Monitoring,
• Detection of Abnormalities/Erroneous States
• Diagnostics
• “What-if” evaluation
• Decision suggestions
• Expansion ability (new decision-support properties)
Adam M. Gadomski, CAMO – ENEA – RC Casaccia – ed. C59 sala conferenze – 05 June 2006
Vulnerability of Human Organizations: ENEA’s Research
Possible Full-Scale Simulator Architecture
Functions
activated in the
Event-Action
Scenario (EAS)
Org. Cog
Layer Layer
OL
CL
A function &
tool under
development
Emot.
Layer
PL
Org. Cog
Layer Layer
OL
CL
OL
CL
F.Specializati Configuration
on Agent
Agent
I -tool: a tool for the
interpretation of
SYNTEXT simulation
results.
Emot.
Layer
PL
PL
Function Functions
Factory Base
(TOGA based proposal)
Tools used in an
action in EAS
OL
Core Scenario
Simulator
Simulation
Agent
Event
Factory
CL PL
A-Tools
Factory
Interpretation
-Tools
Factory
E.Specialization A-Tool
Agent
I-Tool
Spec. Agent Application Agent
User-Tasks Manager (agent) Intell. Support & Cognitive Interfaces
MIT Interface

Adam M. Gadomski, CAMO – ENEA – RC Casaccia – ed. C59 sala conferenze – 05 June 2006
Vulnerability of Human Organizations: ENEA’s Research
Conclusions
Nowadays Socio-Cognitive Engineering is an emerging systemic response on
the dramatically growing risk of negative consequences of Human Errors, it is
inevitable tool of the XXI century.
- Complexity of problems requires new 3rd Generation Integration Approaches
such as the TOGA multi-factor problem representation and parallel modeling, and
Intelligent Decision Support Systems/(Intelligent Advisors Network) development.
- Key problems are referred to the individual understanding and common
transparency of decision-making processes for their intelligent human actorscontributors.
- Socio-Cognitive Engineering requires new specialists on organizational, national
and international levels.
Adam M. Gadomski, CAMO – ENEA – RC Casaccia – ed. C59 sala conferenze – 05 June 2006
Vulnerability of Human Organizations: ENEA’s Research
CONCLUSIONS
The presented works have provided important modeling frameworks.
The future short-term activity will be focused on:
1. Cognitive Modeling of Managerial Decision-Making under high-risk
2. Socio-technological Modeling of LCCIs collaboration
3. Development of the demo Simulation of high-risk management in human
Organization
The activity have been done in ENEA. It included several student theses of:
1.
University “La Sapienza” :
– Systems and Informatics Dep.
– Sociology Dep.
– Psychology Dep.
– Faculty of Communication Sciences (Cognitive Ergonomics)
2. University of Rome “Tor Vergata”:
- Faculty of Industrial Management
Adam M. Gadomski, CAMO – ENEA – RC Casaccia – ed. C59 sala conferenze – 05 June 2006
Some References
1.
A.M. Gadomski. Information about System-Process-Goal Approach to diagnostics and supervisory of nuclear reactor
system. Materials of 19th Informal Meeting on Reactor Noises, Rome, June 1986.
2.
A.M. Gadomski. Application of System-Process-Goal Approach for description of TRIGA RC1 System.
Proceedings of " 9th. European TRIGA Users Conference ", Oct., 1986, Roma. Printed by GA
Technologies, TOC-19, USA. 1987, also the ENEA Report RT TIB/88/2, 1988.
http://hid.casaccia.enea.it/TOto/pdf/(1)an%20application%20of%20spg%20approach%20to%20the%20triga%20rc1.pdf
2.
A.M. Gadomski .TOGA: A methodological and Conceptual Pattern for modelling of Abstract Intelligent Agent. In Proc. of
the ‘First International Round-Table on Abstract Intelligent Agent’,25-27 Jan 1993, The ENEA print (1994).
3.
A..M.Gadomski. Patterns for Conceptualization of Knowledge on Technological Systems Organizations
and Human (invited paper). 9th Polish-Italian-Finnish Conference on Systems Analysis
and Decision Support in Economics and Technology, Radziejowice, Poland. 25-28 October 1993.
4.
A.M. Gadomski, Meta-Knowledge Engineering & Management Server (since 1997),
http://erg4146.casaccia.enea.it
5.
A.M.Gadomski, S. Bologna, G.DiCostanzo, A.Perini, M. Schaerf. Towards Intelligent Decision Support Systems for
Emergency Managers: The IDA Approach. International Journal of Risk Assessment and Management, IJRAM, 2001,
Vol 2, No 3/4.
6.
A.M. Gadomski, TOGA Systemic Approach to the Global Specification - EUREKA Sophocles Project Report, ENEA,
2002. http://hid.casaccia.enea.it/RepSoph-v10.pdf
7.
A.M. Gadomski, Modeling of Socio-Cognitive Vulnerability of Human Organizations: TOGA Meta-Theory Approach,
Proc. of International Workshop on Complex Network and Infrastructure Protection, CNIP 2006 , 28- 29 March 2006,
Rome, Italy.
For more references see: http://hid.casaccia.enea.it/gad/gad-pape.html
Copyright High-Intelligence & Decision Research Group, CAMO, ENEA , http://erg4146.casaccia.enea.it
Adam M. Gadomski, 23/06/2005
Vulnerability of Human Organizations: ENEA’s Research
New research CRESCO subproject (2006-2009):
CRESCO
SOC-COG
“Modellistica delle Reti Complesse viste come
Aggregati Socio-Tecnologici “ – Aspetto di loro
Vulnerabilità Umana.
Thank
you !
Adam M. Gadomski, CAMO – ENEA – RC Casaccia – ed. C59 sala conferenze – 05 June 2006