PV in IEA Medium‐term Market Forecast and Long‐term Scenarios
Roberto VIGOTTI
Vice Chair RE Working Party
© OECD/IEA 2012 E’ uscito l’ultimo rapporto della WB
© OECD/IEA 2012 La brutta notizia
 Il rapporto che esamina i rischi legati ad un riscaldamento climatico di 4 gradi entro la fine del secolo, ma stavolta non sono gli scienziati dell'Ipcc o qualche associazione ambientalista a lanciare l'allarme, ma il cuore del gotha economico planetario: il Gruppo della Banca Mondiale.  Il verdetto è senza appello: le attività umane sono responsabili del riscaldamento del pianeta e questo riscaldamento si sta già traducendo in cambiamenti osservabili.  Senza misure concrete di lotta contro il cambiamento climatico, la comunità internazionale potrebbe subire le conseguenze catastrofiche di un aumento di 4 gradi della temperatura media entro la fine del secolo
© OECD/IEA 2012 La raccomandazione della Banca
 L'adozione di politiche di sviluppo sostenibile potrebbero in effetti permetterci di limitare il riscaldamento planetario a meno di 2 gradi,
 Un utilizzo più efficace e più intelligente dell'energia e delle risorse naturali potrebbe permetterci di ridurre radicalmente l'impatto dello sviluppo sul clima, senza per questo rallentare gli sforzi della lotta contro la povertà o la crescita economica.
 Ogni Paese sceglierà metodi differenti per realizzare una crescita più ecologica, ma in ognuno di essi esistono delle occasioni di crescita verde da sfruttare.
 Conclude il rapporto: «La previsione di 4° C di riscaldamento semplicemente non deve essere permesso che si verifichi, questo “caldo” deve essere respinto. Solo azioni a scala internazionali possono farsì che questo accada».
© OECD/IEA 2012 © OECD/IEA 2012 © OECD/IEA 2012 © OECD/IEA 2012 Renewables take their place in the sun
 Re make up an increasing share of primary energy use in all scenarios, thanks to government support, falling costs, CO2 pricing in some regions and rising fossil fuel prices in the longer term.
 By 2035, electricity from renewables triples, and will account for almost one‐third of total electricity output. Solar grows more rapidly – 26 times !!‐ than any other renewable technology, and will provide 7,5% of all RE based generation. Wind almost ¼.
 Renewables become the world’s second‐largest source of power generation by 2015 (roughly half that of coal) and, by 2035, they approach coal as the primary source of global electricity
© OECD/IEA 2012 RE capacity additions per year
A total of 3000 GW of Re capacity –including replacements – is built 2012‐2035, more than half of total gross capacity additions in the power sector
© OECD/IEA 2012 Cumulative investment in RE‐based
electricity generation in NPS
Cumulative investments of 6 trillion $ required by 2035, with annual investments
up to 300 billion $ in 2035. RE accounts 62% of total investement in power
generation
© OECD/IEA 2012 IEA and its key publications on RE
© OECD/IEA 2012 The Medium Term RE Market Report
 The IEA is publishing its first medium‐term report focused on renewable energy
 Bottom‐up, global renewable forecast of renewable electricity capacity and generation over the next 5 years
 Detailed analysis of 12 OECD countries (Austria, Denmark, France, Germany, Italy, Japan, Norway, Spain, Sweden, Turkey, UK, US) and China, India, Brazil (~80% of world renewable electricity)
 For 2012 edition, focus on 8 technologies in power sector
 Completes slate of IEA MT forecasts: oil, gas, coal
© OECD/IEA 2012 Key trends
 As a portfolio of renewable technologies matures, global renewable power generation is forecast to rise 40%
 Supported by policy/market frameworks and economic attractiveness in increasing range of countries and circumstances
 Technology cost developments, grid/system integration, cost/availability of financing also weigh as key variables
 High level of economic/policy uncertainty in some countries
 This projected growth is an acceleration vs previous period
 Growth is 60% higher over 2011‐17 versus 2005‐11
 Renewable deployment is projected to spread out geographically, with increased activity in emerging markets
 Deployment spurring economies of scale in some technologies ‐
virtuous cycle of improved competition and cost reductions
© OECD/IEA 2012 Non‐hydro technology deployment spreads out
 Number of countries with cumulative capacity larger than 100MW (can cover consumption of 100k households) increases significantly
 Growth areas include Asia, Africa, Latin America and the Middle East
Number of countries with installed
capacity above 100 MW
80
Non-OECD
OECD
60
40
20
Onshore
wind
Offshore
wind
Bioenergy
Solar PV
CSP
Geothermal
2017
2011
2005
2017
2011
2005
2017
2011
2005
2017
2011
2005
2017
2011
2005
2017
2011
2005
2017
2011
2005
0
Ocean
© OECD/IEA 2012 Generation additions over 2011‐17 differ across regions and technology portfolios
OECD Americas (+179 TWh)
OECD Asia‐Oceania (+77 TWh)
Wind onshore
Wind onshore
Bioenergy
Bioenergy
Solar PV
Solar PV
Other technologies
Other technologies
OECD Europe (+365 TWh)
Non‐OECD (+1 220 TWh) Hydropower
Hydropower
Wind onshore
Wind onshore
Bioenergy
Bioenergy
Solar PV
Other technologies
Solar PV
Other technologies
© OECD/IEA 2012 Medium‐term solar PV outlook
 Global capacity to top 230 GW in 2017 (baseline)
 Markets quickly changing due to changing policy environment (China, Japan, Germany, Italy, etc.) and falling costs  Market shifting to good resource areas that don’t need subsidies
GW
250
Global solar PV capacity forecast
200
150
100
50
0
2011
Germany
2012
2013
China
2014
US
2015
Japan
2016
Italy
2017
RoW
© OECD/IEA 2012 Outlook uncertainty significant
 Germany and Italy’s projections already challenged  EPIA’s range in 2016: 208GW – 343GW
GW
350
Global solar PV capacity forecasts comparison
300
250
200
150
100
50
0
2011
Germany
China
2016 IEA
baseline
2016 IEA
enhanced
US
Japan
2016 EPIA
Moderate
Italy
2016 EPIA
policy-driven
RoW
© OECD/IEA 2012 Penetration shares
GW
China
Germany
USA Japan
Italy
2017 enhanced case
2010/11 power system
Benchmark %
48.1
1050
5%
47.7
157
30%
33.0
1040
3%
28.4
287
10%
26.8
105
25%
 European countries like Germany and Italy could be reaching high PV penetration shares by 2017
 Emerging economies but also the US represent much larger potential markets
© OECD/IEA 2012 RE Support Shows Impact on Household Prices
ct/kWh EUR
30
25
20
15
10
5
0
2000
2001
2002
2003
Generation, transport, distribution
2004
VAT
2005
2006
Concession fee
2007
2008
EEG surcharge
2009
CHP law
2010
2011
Electricity tax
 In 2011 PV
 Generated around 20% of EEG supported energy
 Accounted for approx 45% of all EEG payments
© OECD/IEA 2012 GW
PV Generation Impacting Spot Markets
80,0
70,0
60,0
50,0
40,0
30,0
20,0
10,0
0,0
Conventional
Wind
PV
0 1 2 3 4 5 6 7 8 9 1011121314151617181920212223
Power generation in Germany, 14 May 2012
hr
2007
2008
2009
2010
2011
Phelix Base
[EUR/MWh]
37.99
66.76
38.85
44.49
51.12
Phelix Peak
[EUR/MWh]
56.16
88.07
51.15
55.02
58.95
Spread [%]
149
134
132
124
115
Source: Top, EEX Transparency Platform; Bottom EEX cited as in http://www.agora‐
energiewende.de/fileadmin/downloads/Agora_Energiewende_Impulse_Kapazitaetsmarkte.pdf
© OECD/IEA 2012 Medium‐term solar PV manufacturing outlook
 Amid overcapacity, solar PV industry undergoing major restructuring
 Selling at zero margins or loss to keep market share
 Chinese companies taking larger market share
 Upheaval likely to persist for several years
 Companies locating manufacturing closer to emerging markets
 Sunnier countries with high demand growth more attractive (e.g. Asia and Middle East)
 Capital less costly, more accessible in Asia
 Chinese companies increasingly produce for large, domestic market
© OECD/IEA 2012 Conclusions
 Massive improvements in recent years
 IEA forecasts PV world capacity to increase x 3‐4 times over next 5 years
 However, system and market integration issues emerging in specific countries  market reforms needed  Moving to new countries and competitive market segments is key
 Huge long‐term potential
© OECD/IEA 2012 For further insights and analysis…
 The Medium‐Term Renewable Energy Market Report 2012 online at:
www.iea.org
 Thank you for your attention!
[email protected]
© OECD/IEA 2012 Le conseguenze
 Innalzamento del livello del mare l'agricoltura, le risorse idriche, la salute umana, la biodiversità saranno verosimilmente gravemente colpiti. Queste ripercussioni potrebbero produrre vasti spostamenti di popolazioni, ridurre la sicurezza e perturbare i sistemi economici ed il commercio.

Ondate di calore
 Acidificazione degli oceani
 Calo delle rese agricole. in tutto il mondo, con gravi rischi per la sicurezza alimentare futura
 I rischi per i servizi eco‐sistemi agli esseri umani, rischi gravi per le incidenze negative sulla disponibilità di acqua
© OECD/IEA 2012 Share RE by category and scenario
© OECD/IEA 2012 Growth in renewable power is forecast to accelerate
 Hydropower remains the main renewable power source (+3.1% p.a.)
 Non‐hydro renewable sources grow at double‐digit annual percentage rates (+14.3% p.a.)
TWh
7 000
Global renewable electricity production and forecast
6 000
5 000
4 000
3 000
2 000
1 000
0
2005 2006 2007 2008 2009 2010 2011 2012 2013 2014 2015 2016 2017
Hydropower
Wind onshore
Bioenergy
Solar PV
Geothermal
Wind offshore
CSP
Ocean
© OECD/IEA 2012 Enhanced case
 Enhanced case is a country‐specific exercise for 15 countries covered in detail in the report (not the rest of the world)
 It assumes market specific barriers to RE are overcome
2017 Baseline
350
300
350
RoW
250
2017 Enhanced
300
RoW
Italy
250
200
Japan
200
Japan
150
US
150
US
China
100
Germany
100
Germany
50
Italy
China
50
0
0
GW
TWh
GW
TWh
© OECD/IEA 2012 Renewables will play a key role
in a sustainable future mix in 2050
60.000
TWh
24%
50.000
57%
71%
Other RES
40.000
Wind
Solar
Bioenergy and wastes
30.000
Hydro
19%
Nuclear
Oil
20.000
Natural gas
Coal
10.000
2009
2050
2050
2050
6DS
2DS
2DS hi-REN
Source: IEA Energy Technology Perspectives 2012
© OECD/IEA 2012