LA COMPARAZIONE CROSS-NATIONAL
• GLI STUDI DI CASI E L’APPROCCIO PER VARIABILI
• metodi qualitativi vs. quantitativi nella
macrosociologia comparata
• Explanatory factors
Economic (growth & technology)
Cultural (social norms and values)
Institutional (political system and
organisations)
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STUDI DI CASI
• olismo non radicale
• nazioni = configurazione storico-sociale unica e
complessa,
ma
• accettabile astrarre caratteristiche/ attributi,
che possono esser comparate
- variabili identificate implicitamente
ma
- mantenuta identificabilità dei casi
• metodo della concordanza e della differenza
• carattere logico → proposizioni deterministiche
2
-
Case-oriented
approach
Focus on how phenomena are
working in each case
Country = case considered as a
“whole”
Qualitative variables are often
stressed
(Very) few country-cases
3
APPROCCIO PER VARIABILI
•
•
•
•
sfida alla pretesa storicista
nazioni = uniche,
comparazione olistica impossibile
obiettivo: sostituire i nomi delle nazioni
con quelli delle variabili
• ogni nazione caratterizzata da un valore
di variabile dipendente e di variabili
indipendenti
4
Variable-oriented
approach
- Focus on relations between
variables
- Country = set of items of
variables included in the analysis
- Usually quantitative variables
(data- bases)
- A large number of countries
5
PROBLEMA DEI PICCOLI NUMERI
• limitato numero di casi → modelli sovra
determinati con insufficienti gradi di libertà
• ma non può essere risolto da studi di caso
logica di Mill
• presuppone
- inclusione di tutti i fattori causali
- assenza di interazioni tra fattori
• implica
- società governata da leggi deterministiche
- dati raccolti privi di ogni errore
6
IL PROBLEMA DI GALTON
= mancanza di indipendenza delle
osservazioni nazonali
• correlazioni istituzionali potrebbero
sorgere
• non da processi interni a società,
• ma essere risultato di processi di
diffusione culturale/politica tra
società
7
IL PROBLEMA DI GALTON
• riguarda solo studio comparativo delle
politiche pubbliche (pressione delle
organizzazioni internazionali e della
internazionalizzazione dell’economia)
• è possibile incorporare nell’analisi i processi
responsabili di interdipendenza
• introdurre idea di “famiglia di nazioni”
• Confini e limiti della macrosociologia
• Processi intersocietali vs. intrasocietali
8
IL PROBLEMA DELLA SCATOLA NERA
= come si passa dalle inferenze descrittive a
quelle causali
• analisi quantitativa cross-national dice poco
sui processi e le azioni sociali alla base delle
relazioni tra variabili empiricamente
individuate
occorre
• avere un resoconto “casualmente adeguato”
del modo in cui sono generate tali regolarità
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IL PROBLEMA DELLA SCATOLA NERA
non bastano
• sequenza di eventi storici
• assemblaggio di induzioni,
• ridescrizione di regolarità empiriche
all’interno di struttura concettuale
troppo spazio per spiegazioni ad hoc
• un resoconto teorico deve avere pretesa di
generalità
• teoria generale = applicabile in contesti sociali
molto lontani nel tempo e nello spazio
10
Macro-variable-oriented approach
Merits
• Easy availability of national average
data allows exploratory analyses on
many countries, also for long periods.
Limits
• Number of countries often restricted
for statistical methods (regressions).
• Choice of countries can undermine
the results.
• Macro-relations may not be confirmed
at the micro level.
11
Two easy examples concerning the
choice of countries
1. Cross-national relation between
penalisation of women and their
labour market participation.
2. Cross-national relation between
female employment and the
proportion of part time.
Women in the labour market: at a crossroad between cultural norms, sociopolitical institutions, economic growth.
12
Fig. 1. Relation between women penalisation and their
labour market participation, Western European countries
2005
Ratio of women/men
unemployment rates
3
y = -0,0328x + 3,3999
R2 = 0,3891
2,5
2
1,5
1
0,5
45
50
55
60
65
70
75
80
Women activity rate
13
The underlying hypothesis
Women are more penalised in societies
that are less accustomed to regarding
their participation in the labour market
as fully normal by social standards
(gender culture: mother vs. worker).
But
Such a hypothesis is grounded on the
choice of countries where labour market
participation of women was growing over
time at least since early Seventies
14
Fig. 2. Relation between women penalisation and their
labour market participation. All European countries, 2005
Ratio of women/men
unemployment rates
3
2,5
y = -0,0203x + 2,4732
R2 = 0,1589
2
1,5
1
0,5
45
50
55
60
65
70
75
80
Women activity rate
15
Fig. 3. Relation between women penalisation and their
labour market participation. Eastern European countries,
2005
1,60
1,50
y = -0,0002x + 1,0759
R2 = 0,00
Ratio of women/men
unemployment rates
1,40
1,30
1,20
1,10
1,00
0,90
0,80
0,70
0,60
54
56
58
60
62
64
66
68
Women activity rate
16
The different story of former
planned societies
Near full employment also for women in
planned societies; then transition caused
a more or less important decrease of
women activity rate and increase of
unemployment, both for women and men.
In those countries, long time fully
accustomed in regarding women as
workers, their (recent) penalisation
followed idiosyncratic pathways.
17
Fig. 4. Relation between women employment and part
time. Western European countries, 2005
80,0
70,0
% part time
60,0
y = 0,9349x - 23,337
R2 = 0,2725
50,0
40,0
30,0
20,0
10,0
0,0
40,0
45,0
50,0
55,0
60,0
65,0
70,0
75,0
Employment rate (15-64 yrs)
18
The underlying hypothesis
Since early ’70s, growth in % part time
paralleled growth of women employment
in all Western countries (but Italy till
early ’90s).
Part time pushed women employment
because it let also poorly educated (and
more family-committed / poorly paid)
women to get a paid work.
So, women are more employed in
countries where opportunities for part
time jobs are larger.
19
Fig. 5. Relation between women employment and
part time. Eastern European countries, 2005
14,0
12,0
% Part time
10,0
8,0
6,0
4,0
y = 0,0454x + 5,7483
R2 = 0,0061
2,0
0,0
40,0
45,0
50,0
55,0
60,0
65,0
Employment rate (15-64 yrs)
20
The different story of former
planned societies
In those countries also poorly educated
women were accustomed to being fully
employed in full time jobs.
When transition caused a more or less
important decrease in their employment
rate, the proportion of women in part
time jobs remained very low and crossnationally followed idiosyncratic pathways
without any relation with their labour
participation.
21
Societal analysis approach
- Micro-macro analysis
- Two steps:
1. stressing relations between
variables inside any country (also at
individual level)
2. cross-national comparing the
results of those relations
Quali/quantitative variables
(recently also longitudinal)
22
Societal analysis approach
- Medium number of countries
- Standardised data-sets are
needed
Usual outcomes = typologies
•
- un/employment models
•
- labour market systems
•
- welfare regimes
23
Cross-national variation in
youth unemployment
Variation in total unemployment
rate among EU countries is
important, but more important is
variation in penalisation of youth
vs. prime age people.
Ratio of youth/adult
unemployment rates ranges from
1.1 to 3.6
24
The connection with the strictness
of the labour market regulation
• Oecd tried to cross-nationally
relates
- unemployment rate to EIP →
failure
- youth/adult unemployment rate
to EIP
→ failure
25
Fig. 3.10. Relazione tra penalizzazione dei giovani (maschi) e protezione dell'occupazione,
2007
Indice di protezione dell'occupazione dipendente
3.5
Portogallo
Spagna
3.0
Francia
Grecia
2.5
Belgio
Germania
2.0
Finlandia
Olanda
Italia
Svezia
Austria
1.5
Danimarca
Irlanda
1.0
Gran Bretagna
0.5
0.0
0.0
50.0
100.0
150.0
200.0
250.0
300.0
Indice di penalizzazione
26
Educational system’s role in the
transition from school to work
• Vocational education
→ signalling a job seeker for a job
→ reducing seeking time
• General education
→ no signalling function
• Where vocational education prevails,
impact of high EIP is counterbalanced
[Breen 2005] macro-cross-national
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