81,9(56,7$·'(*/,678',',3$'29$
)$&2/7$·',6&,(1=(67$7,67,&+(
&2562',/$85($75,(11$/(,16&,(1=(
67$7,67,&+((7(&12/2*,(,1)250$7,&+(
(/$%25$72),1$/(
'(67$*,21$/,==$=,21('(//(6(5,(6725,&+('(//$
352'8=,21(('(/)$7785$723529,1&,$/(
,/&$62'(//·,1'8675,$0$1,)$7785,(5$9,&(17,1$
5(/$725(&+02352))5$1&(6&2/,6,
/$85($1'2)5$1&(6&2/29$72
$112$&&$'(0,&2
6RPPDULR
,QWURGX]LRQH
/DFDPHUDGLFRPPHUFLR 6WRULDGHOOD&&,$$GL9LFHQ]D
&RPSLWLHIXQ]LRQLGHOOD&&,$$
6HUYL]LRLQIRUPD]LRQHHFRQRPLFD
2JJHWWRGHOORVWDJH
'HVWDJLRQDOL]]D]LRQH
,QWURGX]LRQHD75$026($76
75$02 6($76 $GGLWLYHRXWOLHU$2
/HYHOVKLIW/6
7UDQVLWRU\FKDQJH7&
6RIWZDUHXWLOL]]DWR
*OLRXWOLHUV /DGHVWDJLRQDOL]]D]LRQHGHJOLLQGLFLORFDOL
3URGX]LRQHLQGXVWULDOH
)DWWXUDWRWRWDOH
)DWWXUDWRHVWHUR
1RWHPHWRGRORJLFKH
%LELRJUDILD
5LQJUD]LDPHQWL
,QWURGX]LRQH
4XHVWD WHVL q LO SURGRWWR GL XQ SHULRGR GL VWDJH SUHVVR OD &DPHUD GL &RPPHUFLR GL
9LFHQ]DHGHOODVXFFHVVLYDHVSHULHQ]DODYRUDWLYDSUHVVR8QLRQFDPHUHGHO9HQHWRGRYH
KR DYXWR PRGR GL WUDWWDUH LQ PDQLHUD SUDWLFD FLz FKH KR DIIURQWDWR QHL TXDWWUR DQQL
SUHFHGHQWLSUHVVRODIDFROWjGL6FLHQ]H6WDWLVWLFKHGL3DGRYDVSHFLDOPHQWHSHUTXDQWR
ULJXDUGDLOFRUVRGL$QDOLVLGHOOH6HULH7HPSRUDOL
7UDPLWH O·LQGDJLQH GL 8QLRQFDPHUH GHO 9HQHWR VXO WHVVXWR PDQLIDWWXULHUR q VWDWR
SRVVLELOH GHVWDJLRQDOL]]DUH L GDWL UDFFROWL ULFUHDQGR GHOOH VHULH VWRULFKH FKH
VSLHJDVVHUR O·DQGDPHQWR GHOO·HFRQRPLD SHU OH LQGXVWULH PDQLIDWWXULHUH YLFHQWLQH
/·HODERUDWRqVXGGLYLVRLQVHLPDFURVHWWRULLOSULPRLQFXLYLHQHVSLHJDWDODVWRULDHOH
IXQ]LRQL GHOOD &DPHUD GL &RPPHUFLR H GHL VXRL RUJDQL LO VHFRQGR QHO TXDOH VSLHJR OH
PLHPDQVLRQLSULQFLSDOLGXUDQWHORVWDJH6XFFHVVLYDPHQWHWUDWWHUzGHOODPHWRGRORJLDH
GHLULVXOWDWLUDJJLXQWLGXUDQWHLOSHULRGRGLVWDJH
1
/D&DPHUDGL&RPPHUFLR
/D &DPHUD GL &RPPHUFLR q XQ HQWH SXEEOLFR GRWDWR GL DXWRQRPLD IXQ]LRQDOH FKH
VYROJH QHOO·DPELWR GHOOD FLUFRVFUL]LRQH WHUULWRULDOH GL FRPSHWHQ]D VXOOD EDVH GHO
SULQFLSLRGLVXVVLGLDULHWjGLFXLDOO·DUWLFRORGHOOD&RVWLWX]LRQHIXQ]LRQLGLLQWHUHVVH
JHQHUDOH SHU LO VLVWHPD GHOOH LPSUHVH FXUDQGRQH OR VYLOXSSR QHOO·DPELWR GHOOH
HFRQRPLHORFDOL
/H XQLRQL UHJLRQDOL GHOOH &DPHUH GL &RPPHUFLR H O·XQLRQH LWDOLDQD GHOOH &DPHUH GL
&RPPHUFLR VRQR GHILQLWH 8QLRQFDPHUH /H 8QLRQFDPHUH H OH &DPHUH GL &RPPHUFLR
QRQFKp L ORUR RUJDQLVPL VWUXPHQWDOLFRVWLWXLVFRQRLOVLVWHPDFDPHUDOHLWDOLDQR,QROWUH
QHIDQQRSDUWHOH&DPHUHGL&RPPHUFLRLWDOLDQHDOO·HVWHURRHVWHUHLQ,WDOLDOHJDOPHQWH
ULFRQRVFLXWH GDOOR 6WDWR ,WDOLDQR /H &DPHUH GL &RPPHUFLR KDQQR VHGH LQ RJQL
FDSROXRJR GL SURYLQFLD H OD ORUR FLUFRVFUL]LRQH WHUULWRULDOH FRLQFLGH GL UHJROD FRQ
TXHOOD GHOOD SURYLQFLD R GHOO
DUHD PHWURSROLWDQD GL FXL DOO
DUWLFROR GHO GHFUHWR
OHJLVODWLYRDJRVWRQ
/D FRVWLWX]LRQH GL QXRYH SURYLQFH QRQ GHWHUPLQD REEOLJDWRULDPHQWH O·LVWLWX]LRQH GL
QXRYH &DPHUH GL &RPPHUFLR &RQ GHFUHWR GHO 0LQLVWUR GHOOR VYLOXSSR HFRQRPLFR
SUHYLDLQWHVDFRQOD&RQIHUHQ]DSHUPDQHQWHSHULUDSSRUWLWUDOR6WDWROHUHJLRQLHOH
SURYLQFHDXWRQRPHGL7UHQWRHGL%RO]DQRSXzHVVHUHGLVSRVWDO·LVWLWX]LRQHGL&DPHUH
GL &RPPHUFLR QHOOH QXRYH SURYLQFH VROR VH LQ FLDVFXQD FDPHUD GL FRPPHUFLR
LQWHUHVVDWD GDO SURYYHGLPHQWR ULVXOWDQR LVFULWWH R DQQRWDWH QHO UHJLVWUR GHOOH LPSUHVH
DOPHQR LPSUHVH H VLD FRPXQTXH DVVLFXUDWR LO UDJJLXQJLPHQWR GL XQ VXIILFLHQWH
HTXLOLEULRHFRQRPLFR
,FRQVLJOLGLGXHRSL&DPHUHGL&RPPHUFLRSRVVRQRSURSRUUHFRQGHOLEHUDDGRWWDWDD
PDJJLRUDQ]D GHL GXH WHU]L GHL FRPSRQHQWL O
DFFRUSDPHQWR GHOOH ULVSHWWLYH
FLUFRVFUL]LRQL WHUULWRULDOL &RQ GHFUHWR GHO 0LQLVWUR GHOOR VYLOXSSR HFRQRPLFR SUHYLD
LQWHVD FRQ OD &RQIHUHQ]D SHUPDQHQWH SHU L UDSSRUWL WUD OR 6WDWR OH UHJLRQL H OH
SURYLQFH DXWRQRPH GL 7UHQWR H GL %RO]DQR q LVWLWXLWD OD &DPHUD GL &RPPHUFLR
GHULYDQWHGDOO·DFFRUSDPHQWRGHOOHFLUFRVFUL]LRQLWHUULWRULDOL&RQORVWHVVRGHFUHWRVRQR
GLVFLSOLQDWLLFULWHULHOHPRGDOLWjSHUODVXFFHVVLRQHQHLUDSSRUWLJLXULGLFLHVLVWHQWL
2
6WRULDGHOOD&DPHUDGL&RPPHUFLRGL9LFHQ]D
/D&DPHUDGL&RPPHUFLRGL9LFHQ]DqVWDWDIRQGDWDLO*LXJQRVRWWRLOJRYHUQR
QDSROHRQLFR FRQ LO QRPH GL &DPHUD GL &RPPHUFLR $UWL H 0DQLIDWWXUH 7DOH GHFUHWR
GHOLQHDYD L FRPSLWL GL WDOH WLSR GL LVWLWX]LRQH SUHVHQWH LQ WXWWH OH PDJJLRUL FLWWj GHO
5HJQR G
,WDOLD FKH HUDQR TXHOOL GL UDFFRJOLHUH QRWL]LH VXOO
DWWLYLWj FRPPHUFLDOH
LQGXVWULDOH HVXTXDQWRSRWHYDLQWHUHVVDUHLOORURVYLOXSSR$GHVVDLQROWUHVSHWWDYDQR
IXQ]LRQLGLWLSRDPPLQLVWUDWLYRTXDOLODWHQXWDGHO5HJLVWUR*HQHUDOHGHLIDEEULFDQWLH
FRPPHUFLDQWL LO ULODVFLR GHL FHUWLILFDWL GL QD]LRQDOLWj GHOOH PHUFL OD GLYXOJD]LRQH GL
GLVFLSOLQH H UHJRODPHQWL FRPPHUFLDOL &RPH VL YHGH ILQ GDJOL DOERUL OD &DPHUD GL
&RPPHUFLR KD DYXWR XQ FRPSLWR SURSXOVLYR QHL FRQIURQWL GHOO
HFRQRPLD ORFDOH 6ROR
GRSRTXDOFKHPHVHLO*HQQDLROD&DPHUDGL&RPPHUFLRGLYHQWDRSHUDWLYDD
WXWWL JOL HIIHWWL JUD]LH DOO·DXWRILQDQ]LDPHQWR WUDPLWH XQD WDVVDWD FDPHUDOH SRVWD D
FDULFRGHLFRPPHUFLDQWLHGHJOLDUWLJLDQLHGHQRPLQDWD&RQWULEXWR$UWLH&RPPHUFLR
4XDOFKH DQQR SL WDUGL QHO OD JLXULVGL]LRQH GHOOD &DPHUD GL &RPPHUFLR YLHQH
HVWHVD D WXWWR LO WHUULWRULR SURYLQFLDOH D GLIIHUHQ]D GHJOL DQQL SUHFHGHQWL LQ FXL LO
WHUULWRULR GL FRPSHWHQ]D VL HVWHQGHYD DO WHUULWRULR FRPXQDOH H ]RQH OLPLWURIH GL
FRQVHJXHQ]DFRQTXHVWDHVSDQVLRQHLQIDWWRGLWHUULWRULRHFRPSHWHQ]HSHUOD&DPHUD
GL &RPPHUFLR GL 9LFHQ]D YHQLYDQR HOLPLQDWH TXHOOH PLQRUL GL 6FKLR H %DVVDQR GHO
*UDSSD&LUFDXQDQQRSLWDUGLYLHQHLVWLWXLWDWUDPLWHXQDQXRYDOHJJHOD&DPHUDGL
&RPPHUFLR H ,QGXVWULD LQROWUH YLHQH LVWLWXLWR O·REEOLJR G·LVFUL]LRQH DO 5HJLVWUR
0HUFDQWLOHSHUWXWWLLFRPPHUFLDQWLDUWLJLDQLHPDQLIDWWXULHUL1HOORVWHVVRSHULRGROD
JHVWLRQH GHOO·HQWH SDVVD GDOOH DXWRULWj JRYHUQDWLYH DG XQ &ROOHJLR GHL &RQVLJOLHUL
IRUPDWRGDUDSSUHVHQWDQWLHOHWWLGDJOLLVFULWWLDOOD&DPHUD
3
&RQ O·DQQHVVLRQH GHO 9HQHWR DO 5HJQR G·,WDOLD QHO HQWUD LQ YLJRUH DQFKH LQ
9LFHQ]D OD OHJJH FKH GLVFLSOLQD OH &DPHUH GL &RPPHUFLR G·,WDOLD SURPXOJDWD JLj QHO
7UH DQQL GRSR OD &DPHUD GL &RPPHUFLR FRPLQFLD XQ·DWWLYLWj FKH q DQFRUD
IXQ]LRQDQWH RYYHUR OD SXEEOLFD]LRQH GHO %ROOHWWLQR 0HQVLOH DQWHQDWR GHOO·RGLHUQD
ULYLVWDFDPHUDOHDWWLYLWjFKHKDYLVWRGHOOHLQWHUUX]LRQLVRODPHQWHQHLSHULRGLEHOOLFL
1HOSHULRGRIDVFLVWDYHQJRQRLVWLWXLWLL&RQVLJOL3URYLQFLDOLGHOO·(FRQRPLDDVFDSLWRGHOOD
UDSSUHVHQWDQ]DHOHWWLYDFKHYHUUjSRLULSULVWLQDWDQHOSULPRGRSRJXHUUD'DJOLDQQL·
LQSRLVLVXVVHJXRQRQXRYL3UHVLGHQWLHULIRUPHFKHFDPELHUDQQRO·DVVHWWRHOHIXQ]LRQL
GHOOD&DPHUDGL&RPPHUFLRILQRDGDUULYDUHDLJLRUQLQRVWULFRQLO'HFUHWR/HJLVODWLYR
GHO)HEEUDLR
&RPSLWLHIXQ]LRQLGHOOD&&,$$
2UD GL VHJXLWR YHQJRQR HOHQFDWL L FRPPD GHOO·DUWLFROR GHO GHFUHWR OHJLVODWLYR )HEEUDLR FKH ID ULIHULPHQWR DL FRPSLWL H DOOH IXQ]LRQL GL XQD &DPHUD GL
&RPPHUFLR
/H &DPHUH GL &RPPHUFLR VYROJRQR QHOO·DPELWR GHOOD FLUFRVFUL]LRQH WHUULWRULDOH GL
FRPSHWHQ]D IXQ]LRQL GL VXSSRUWR H GL SURPR]LRQH GHJOL LQWHUHVVL JHQHUDOL GHOOH
LPSUHVH H GHOOH HFRQRPLH ORFDOL QRQFKp IDWWH VDOYH OH FRPSHWHQ]H DWWULEXLWH GDOOD
&RVWLWX]LRQH H GDOOH OHJJL GHOOR 6WDWR DOOH DPPLQLVWUD]LRQL VWDWDOL DOOH UHJLRQL H DJOL
HQWL ORFDOL IXQ]LRQL QHOOH PDWHULH DPPLQLVWUDWLYH HG HFRQRPLFKH UHODWLYH DO VLVWHPD
GHOOH LPSUHVH /H &DPHUH GL &RPPHUFLR VLQJRODUPHQWH R LQ IRUPD DVVRFLDWD
HVHUFLWDQR LQROWUH OH IXQ]LRQL DG HVVH GHOHJDWH GDOOR 6WDWR H GDOOH UHJLRQL QRQFKp L
FRPSLWLGHULYDQWLGDDFFRUGLRFRQYHQ]LRQLLQWHUQD]LRQDOLLQIRUPDQGRODORURD]LRQHDO
SULQFLSLRGLVXVVLGLDULHWj
/H &DPHUH GL &RPPHUFLR VLQJRODUPHQWH R LQ IRUPD DVVRFLDWD VYROJRQR LQ
SDUWLFRODUHOHIXQ]LRQLHLFRPSLWLUHODWLYLD
DWHQXWDGHOUHJLVWURGHOOHLPSUHVHGHO5HSHUWRULR(FRQRPLFR$PPLQLVWUDWLYRDLVHQVL
GHOO·DUWLFROR GHO GHFUHWR OHJLVODWLYR )HEEUDLR H GHJOL DOWUL UHJLVWUL HG DOEL
DWWULEXLWLDOOHFDPHUHGLFRPPHUFLRGDOODOHJJH
E SURPR]LRQH GHOOD VHPSOLILFD]LRQH GHOOH SURFHGXUH SHU O·DYYLR H OR VYROJLPHQWR GL
DWWLYLWjHFRQRPLFKH
4
F SURPR]LRQH GHO WHUULWRULR H GHOOH HFRQRPLH ORFDOL DO ILQH GL DFFUHVFHUQH OD
FRPSHWLWLYLWjIDYRUHQGRO·DFFHVVRDOFUHGLWRSHUOH30,DQFKHDWWUDYHUVRLOVXSSRUWRDL
FRQVRU]LILGL
G UHDOL]]D]LRQH GL RVVHUYDWRUL GHOO·HFRQRPLD ORFDOH H GLIIXVLRQH GL LQIRUPD]LRQH
HFRQRPLFD
H VXSSRUWR DOO·LQWHUQD]LRQDOL]]D]LRQH SHU OD SURPR]LRQH GHO VLVWHPD LWDOLDQR GHOOH
LPSUHVH DOO·HVWHUR UDFFRUGDQGRVL WUD O·DOWUR FRQ L SURJUDPPL GHO 0LQLVWHUR GHOOR
VYLOXSSRHFRQRPLFR
ISURPR]LRQHGHOO·LQQRYD]LRQHHGHOWUDVIHULPHQWRWHFQRORJLFRSHUOHLPSUHVHDQFKH
DWWUDYHUVRODUHDOL]]D]LRQHGLVHUYL]LHLQIUDVWUXWWXUHLQIRUPDWLFKHHWHOHPDWLFKH
J FRVWLWX]LRQH GL FRPPLVVLRQL DUELWUDOL H FRQFLOLDWLYH SHU OD ULVROX]LRQH GHOOH
FRQWURYHUVLHWUDLPSUHVHHWUDLPSUHVHHFRQVXPDWRULHXWHQWL
K SUHGLVSRVL]LRQH GL FRQWUDWWLWLSR WUD LPSUHVH ORUR DVVRFLD]LRQL H DVVRFLD]LRQL GL
WXWHODGHJOLLQWHUHVVLGHLFRQVXPDWRULHGHJOLXWHQWL
L SURPR]LRQH GL IRUPH GL FRQWUROOR VXOOD SUHVHQ]D GL FODXVROH LQLTXH LQVHULWH QHL
FRQWUDWWL
OYLJLODQ]DHFRQWUROORVXLSURGRWWLHSHUODPHWURORJLDOHJDOHHULODVFLRGHLFHUWLILFDWL
G·RULJLQHGHOOHPHUFL
PUDFFROWDGHJOLXVLHGHOOHFRQVXHWXGLQL
QFRRSHUD]LRQHFRQOHLVWLWX]LRQLVFRODVWLFKHHXQLYHUVLWDULHLQPDWHULDGLDOWHUQDQ]D
VFXRODODYRURHSHUO·RULHQWDPHQWRDOODYRURHDOOHSURIHVVLRQL
/H &DPHUH GL &RPPHUFLR QHL FXL UHJLVWUL GHOOH LPSUHVH VLDQR LVFULWWH R DQQRWDWH
PHQR GL LPSUHVH HVHUFLWDQR OH IXQ]LRQL GL FXL DOOH OHWW J K L H M
REEOLJDWRULDPHQWHLQIRUPDDVVRFLDWD
3HU LO UDJJLXQJLPHQWR GHL SURSUL VFRSL OH &DPHUH GL &RPPHUFLR SURPXRYRQR
UHDOL]]DQR H JHVWLVFRQR VWUXWWXUH HG LQIUDVWUXWWXUH GL LQWHUHVVH HFRQRPLFR JHQHUDOH D
OLYHOOR ORFDOH UHJLRQDOH H QD]LRQDOH GLUHWWDPHQWH R PHGLDQWH OD SDUWHFLSD]LRQH
VHFRQGR OH QRUPH GHO FRGLFH FLYLOH FRQDOWULVRJJHWWLSXEEOLFLHSULYDWLDGRUJDQLVPL
DQFKHDVVRFLDWLYLDGHQWLDFRQVRU]LHDVRFLHWj
/H &DPHUH GL &RPPHUFLR QHO ULVSHWWR GL FULWHUL GL HTXLOLEULR HFRQRPLFR H
ILQDQ]LDULR SRVVRQR FRVWLWXLUH LQ IRUPD VLQJRODRDVVRFLDWDHVHFRQGROHGLVSRVL]LRQL
GHO FRGLFH FLYLOH D]LHQGH VSHFLDOL RSHUDQWL VHFRQGR OH QRUPH GHO GLULWWR SULYDWR /H
D]LHQGH VSHFLDOL GHOOH &DPHUH GL &RPPHUFLR VRQR RUJDQLVPL VWUXPHQWDOL GRWDWL GL
5
VRJJHWWLYLWj WULEXWDULD /H &DPHUH GL &RPPHUFLR SRVVRQR DWWULEXLUH DOOH D]LHQGH
VSHFLDOLLOFRPSLWRGLUHDOL]]DUHOHLQL]LDWLYHIXQ]LRQDOLDOSHUVHJXLPHQWRGHOOHSURSULH
ILQDOLWj LVWLWX]LRQDOL H GHO SURSULR SURJUDPPD GL DWWLYLWj DVVHJQDQGR DOOH VWHVVH OH
ULVRUVHILQDQ]LDULHHVWUXPHQWDOLQHFHVVDULH
3HU OD UHDOL]]D]LRQH GL LQWHUYHQWL D IDYRUH GHO VLVWHPD GHOOH LPSUHVH H
GHOO·HFRQRPLD OH &DPHUH GL &RPPHUFLR H OH ORUR XQLRQL SRVVRQR SDUWHFLSDUH DJOL
DFFRUGL GL SURJUDPPD DL VHQVL GHOO·DUWLFROR GHO GHFUHWROHJLVODWLYRDJRVWR
Q
ELV /D SURJUDPPD]LRQH GHJOL LQWHUYHQWL LQ IDYRUH GHO VLVWHPD GHOOH LPSUHVH H
GHOO·HFRQRPLD QHOO·DPELWR GHO SURJUDPPD SOXULHQQDOH GL DWWLYLWj GL FXL DO VXFFHVVLYR
DUWLFROR FRPPD OHWW F ² q IRUPXODWD LQ FRHUHQ]D FRQ OD SURJUDPPD]LRQH
GHOO·8QLRQH(XURSHDGHOOR6WDWRHGHOOH5HJLRQL
/H &DPHUH GL &RPPHUFLR SRVVRQR FRVWLWXLUVL SDUWH FLYLOH QHL JLXGL]L UHODWLYL DL
GHOLWWL FRQWUR O·HFRQRPLD SXEEOLFD O·LQGXVWULD H LO FRPPHUFLR 3RVVRQR DOWUHVu
SURPXRYHUH O·D]LRQH SHU OD UHSUHVVLRQH GHOOD FRQFRUUHQ]D VOHDOH DL VHQVL GHOO·DUWLFROR
GHOFRGLFHFLYLOH
/H&DPHUHGL&RPPHUFLRHOHORURXQLRQLSRVVRQRIRUPXODUHSDUHULHSURSRVWHDOOH
DPPLQLVWUD]LRQLGHOOR6WDWRDOOHUHJLRQLHDJOLHQWLORFDOLVXOOHTXHVWLRQLFKHFRPXQTXH
LQWHUHVVDQROHLPSUHVHGHOODFLUFRVFUL]LRQHWHUULWRULDOHGLFRPSHWHQ]D
4XL SL VSHFLILFDWDPHQWH VRQR HOHQFDWH OH PDQVLRQL ULJXDUGDQWL LO UHJLVWUR LPSUHVH
RYYHURLFRPPDGHOO·DUWLFRORGHOPHGHVLPRGHFUHWROHJLVODWLYR
(·LVWLWXLWRSUHVVRODFDPHUDGLFRPPHUFLRO·XIILFLRGHOUHJLVWURGHOOHLPSUHVHGLFXL
DOO·DUWLFRORGHOFRGLFHFLYLOH
$O ILQH GL JDUDQWLUH FRQGL]LRQL GL XQLIRUPLWj LQIRUPDWLYD VX WXWWR LO WHUULWRULR
QD]LRQDOHHIDWWHVDOYHOHGLVSRVL]LRQLOHJLVODWLYHHUHJRODPHQWDULLQPDWHULDQRQFKpJOL
DWWL DPPLQLVWUDWLYL JHQHUDOL GD HVVH SUHYLVWL LO 0LQLVWHUR GHOOR 6YLOXSSR HFRQRPLFR
G·LQWHVD FRQ LO 0LQLVWHUR GHOOD *LXVWL]LD VHQWLWD O·8QLRQFDPHUH HPDQD GLUHWWLYH VXOOD
WHQXWDGHOUHJLVWUR
6
/·XIILFLRSURYYHGHDOODWHQXWDGHOUHJLVWURGHOOHLPSUHVHLQFRQIRUPLWjDJOLDUWLFROL
H VHJXHQWL GHO FRGLFH FLYLOH QRQFKp DOOH GLVSRVL]LRQL GHOOD SUHVHQWH OHJJH H DO
UHJRODPHQWR GL FXL DO FRPPD GHO SUHVHQWH DUWLFROR VRWWR OD YLJLODQ]D GL XQ JLXGLFH
GHOHJDWRGDOSUHVLGHQWHGHOWULEXQDOHGHOFDSROXRJRGLSURYLQFLD
/·XIILFLR q UHWWR GD XQ FRQVHUYDWRUH QRPLQDWR GDOOD *LXQWD QHOOD SHUVRQD GHO
VHJUHWDULR JHQHUDOH RYYHUR GL XQ GLULJHQWH GHOOD FDPHUD GL FRPPHUFLR /·DWWR GL
QRPLQDGHOFRQVHUYDWRUHqSXEEOLFDWRQHOOD*D]]HWWD8IILFLDOH
/·LVFUL]LRQH QHOOH VH]LRQL VSHFLDOL KD IXQ]LRQH GL FHUWLILFD]LRQH DQDJUDILFD GL
SXEEOLFLWjQRWL]LDROWUHDJOLHIIHWWLSUHYLVWLGDOOHOHJJLVSHFLDOL
/D SUHGLVSRVL]LRQH OD WHQXWD OD FRQVHUYD]LRQH H OD JHVWLRQH VHFRQGR WHFQLFKH
LQIRUPDWLFKHGHOUHJLVWURGHOOHLPSUHVHHGLOIXQ]LRQDPHQWRGHOO·XIILFLRVRQRUHDOL]]DWL
LQ PRGR GD DVVLFXUDUH FRPSOHWH]]D HG RUJDQLFLWj GL SXEEOLFLWj SHU WXWWH OH LPSUHVH
VRJJHWWH DG LVFUL]LRQH JDUDQWHQGR OD WHPSHVWLYLWj GHOO·LQIRUPD]LRQH VX WXWWR LO
WHUULWRULR QD]LRQDOH /H PRGDOLWj GL DWWXD]LRQH GHO SUHVHQWH FRPPD VRQR UHJRODWH DL
VHQVL GHOO·DUWLFROR ELV GHO GHFUHWR OHJJH VHWWHPEUH Q FRQYHUWLWR FRQ
PRGLILFD]LRQLQHOODOHJJHGLFHPEUHQ
6HUYL]LR,QIRUPD]LRQH(FRQRPLFD
/D &DPHUDGL&RPPHUFLRGL9LFHQ]DqVXGGLYLVDLQDUHHRJQXQDGHOOHTXDOLGLUHWWDDG
XQ GLULJHQWH FKH KD DXWRQRPLD GL D]LRQH H GL EXGJHW QHO ULVSHWWR GHOOH LQGLFD]LRQL GL
LQGLUL]]R SROLWLFR &RQVLJOLR H *LXQWD $OO·LQWHUQR GHOO·$UHD ,, ´,QIRUPD]LRQH HG $IIDUL
(FRQRPLFLµ RSHUD LO VHUYL]LR 9, ´,QIRUPD]LRQH (FRQRPLFDµ 4XHVWR VHUYL]LR VYROJH WUD
O·DOWUR OH DWWLYLWj GL RVVHUYDWRULR HFRQRPLFR SUHYLVWH GDO GHFUHWR OHJLVODWLYR )HEEUDLR DUW OHWWHUD G QRQFKp DWWLYLWj LQ DPELWR 6LVWDQ 6LVWHPD 6WDWLVWLFR
1D]LRQDOH H GL UHJROD]LRQH GHO PHUFDWR ,O VHUYL]LR GL LQIRUPD]LRQH HFRQRPLFD q
FRPSRVWRGDGXHXQLWjRSHUDWLYHVWDWLVWLFDSUH]]LVWXGLHELEOLRWHFD
,O SHUVRQDOH GHOO·XQLWj RSHUDWLYD 6WDWLVWLFDSUH]]L q FRPSRVWR GD GXH LPSLHJDWH XQD
GHOOH TXDOL SDUWWLPH 1HOO·DPSLD FRPSHWHQ]D LQ UHOD]LRQH DL ´3UH]]Lµ YHQJRQR VYROWH
7
OH ULOHYD]LRQL GHL SUH]]L DOO·LQJURVVR SUHVVR OH VDOH GL FRQWUDWWD]LRQH GL 7KLHQH H
9LFHQ]D SHU L SURGRWWL DJULFROL H ]RRWHFQLFL , QXRYL UHJRODPHQWL DSSURYDWL QHO KDQQR IRUPDOL]]DWR XQD VRUWD GL DQDOLVL SUHOLPLQDUH SUHVVR DOWUH SLD]]H H SUHVVR JOL
RSHUDWRULHFLzLPSHJQDLQXQODYRURGLUDFFROWDGDWLO·XIILFLR
$OPHQR DQQXDOPHQWH VL ULXQLVFRQR L &RPLWDWL GL 6DOD O·XIILFLR GHYH VHJXLUH
O·RUJDQL]]D]LRQHHODYHUEDOL]]D]LRQHGHOOHULXQLRQL
,O ´/LVWLQR SUH]]L DOO·LQJURVVRµ q LQVHULWR XQLFDPHQWH QHO VLWR ZHE FDPHUDOH VDOYR
VSHFLILFKH ULFKLHVWH H TXLQGL QRQ HVLVWH SL XQD SXEEOLFD]LRQH FDUWDFHD ,Q TXHVWR
PRGR YHQJRQR LQVHULWL QHO JLRUQR GL FRQWUDWWD]LRQH OH TXRWD]LRQL FRQ XQ DXPHQWR GL
HIILFLHQ]D H FRQ XQ UHFXSHUR LQ WHUPLQL GL HFRQRPLFLWj ,QROWUH QHO FRUVR GHO q
VWDWD ULQQRYDWD OD VWUXWWXUD GHOOH ´UDFFROWHµ GHL OLVWLQL SHU IDFLOLWDUH OD FRVWUX]LRQH GL
PHGLH PHQVLOL H DQQXDOL H OD FRVWUX]LRQH GL XQ DUFKLYLR VWRULFR D GLVSRVL]LRQH
GHOO·XWHQ]D9LHQHFDULFDWRGLUHWWDPHQWHLOOLVWLQRGHLFHUHDOLQHOO·DUHDSUH]]LGHOVLWR
GL %07, %RUVH 0HUFL 7HOHPDWLFKH ,WDOLDQH H GL FXL YLHQH DVVLFXUDWD OD GLIIXVLRQH GHO
OLVWLQRVHWWLPDQDOHGL%07,
1HOOD VWHVVD PDQLHUD YHQJRQR FDULFDWL TXLQGLFLQDOPHQWH L GDWL UHODWLYL DL SURGRWWL
SHWUROLIHUL FRPSUHVR LO *3/ GD ULVFDOGDPHQWR H PHQVLOPHQWH L SUH]]L GHO SURVFLXWWR
%HULFR(XJDQHR
,O '0 GHOO· PDJJLR KD GDWR LQFDULFR DOOH &DPHUHGL&RPPHUFLRGLSURYYHGHUHD
GLIIRQGHUH L SUH]]L GHOOH FDUFDVVH ERYLQH H VXLQH PD GRSR XQ·LQIRUPDWLYD ULYROWD DL
PDFHOOLDWWLYLQRQVHPEUDFKHYLVLDQRLQSURYLQFLDVWUXWWXUHFKHSHUGLPHQVLRQHVLDQR
REEOLJDWHDGHIIHWWXDUHOHVHJQDOD]LRQL
,Q VHJXLWR DG XQ DFFRUGR FRQ LO 0HUFDWR RUWRIUXWWLFROR q LQROWUH GLVSRQLELOH QHO VLWR
FDPHUDOHLOOLVWLQRGHLSUH]]LGHLSURGRWWLRUWRIUXWWLFROLULOHYDWLGDO&RPXQHGL9LFHQ]D
1HO F·q VWDWR LO SDVVDJJLR DOOD JHVWLRQH WHOHPDWLFD GHL ´3UH]]L,QIRUPDWLYL2SHUH
(GLOLµ H TXLQGL VL VRQR ULGRWWL L WHUPLQL QHOOD GLIIXVLRQH FRQ XQ DJJUDYLR GHO ODYRUR
G·XIILFLRLQTXDQWRODULYLVWDQRQqSLVWDPSDWDHOHFRUUH]LRQLGHOOHER]]HUHVWHUDQQR
DOO·LQWHUQR WXWWDYLD LO SDVVDJJLR GD WULPHVWUDOH D VHPHVWUDOH VDOYR DJJLRUQDPHQWL
SDU]LDOLGRYUHEEHULGXUUHLGLVDJL
2FFRUUH SRL QHO FRUVR GHOO·DQQR SURYYHGHUH D ULQQRYDUH OH &RPPLVVLRQL H LQROWUH VL
VYLOXSSD LO SURJHWWR UHODWLYR DOOD SURFHGXUDOL]]D]LRQH GHOOD ULOHYD]LRQH DWWUDYHUVR
O·DQDOLVLGHLFRVWL$ILQHDQQRYLqLQROWUHODVFHOWDHO·RUJDQL]]D]LRQHGHOODPRGDOLWjGL
ULQJUD]LDPHQWR GHL FRPPLVVDUL FRQ OD QHFHVVLWj GL SURYYHGHUH DOOD VWHVXUD GHO
SURYYHGLPHQWRHDOODUDFFROWDGHOPDWHULDOHGDGLVWULEXLUH
$OWUH LQFRPEHQ]H ULJXDUGDQWL L SUH]]L VRQR LO GHSRVLWR GHL OLVWLQLSUH]]L FRQ TXHVWD
SURFHGXUD XQD FRSLD GHO OLVWLQR YLHQH UHVWLWXLWR WLPEUDWR XQ·DOWUD FRSLD YLHQH
8
WUDWWHQXWD GDOO·XIILFLR HG q D GLVSRVL]LRQH GL FKLXQTXH QH IDFFLD ULFKLHVWD /·XIILFLR
LQROWUH SURYYHGH DOOD YLGLPD]LRQH GHL SUHYHQWLYL H O·DSSRVL]LRQH GL YLVWL GL FRQJUXLWj
SUHYLR LO FRQWUROOR VX DSSRVLWL OLVWLQLVXIDWWXUHUHODWLYHDGDFTXLVWLHIIHWWXDWLGDDOWUL
HQWL2OWUHDFLzVLRFFXSDGHOODYHQGLWDDOSXEEOLFRGHOOHSXEEOLFD]LRQLFDPHUDOLDQFKH
VHTXHVWDRSHUDWLYDVDUjPROWRULGRWWD
8Q·DWWLYLWjGDFRQVLGHUDUVLRUGLQDULDqORVYLOXSSRGHOORVSRUWHOOR´%07,µLQHUHQWHDO
PHUFDWR WHOHPDWLFR GHL SURGRWWL DJURDOLPHQWDUL /·XIILFLR SURPXRYH OR VSRUWHOOR
SUHVVROH$VVRFLD]LRQLGL&DWHJRULDHRIIUHFRQVXOHQ]DDJOLRSHUDWRUL
/·XIILFLR ULFHYH LQ GHSRVLWR L OLVWLQL SHU OD URWWDPD]LRQH GHOOH PDFFKLQH DJULFROH FRQ
XQDSURFHGXUDDQDORJDDOVHPSOLFHGHSRVLWRFRQO·DJJLXQWDGHOFDULFDPHQWRQHOODUHWH
LQWUDQHWGHOOH&DPHUHGL&RPPHUFLR
/·XIILFLR FRQWLQXD D IRUQLUH OD SURSULD FRQVXOHQ]D QHOO·DPSLD PDWHULD GHL SUH]]L DO
FRQVXPRHDOO·LQJURVVR
&RQODOHJJHILQDQ]LDULDSHULOqVWDWDLQWURGRWWDODILJXUDGHOFG´0LVWHU3UH]]Lµ
JOLXIILFLSUH]]LGHOOH&DPHUHGL&RPPHUFLRKDQQRXQUXRORLPSRUWDQWHDOLYHOORORFDOH
VLD LQ DPELWR LQIRUPDWLYR VLD GL DQDOLVL FKH GL UDFFROWD GL VHJQDOD]LRQL GD SDUWH GHL
FRQVXPDWRUL /·HVSHULHQ]D GHJOL DQQL SUHFHGHQWL SRUWD WXWWDYLD D VWLPDUH XQ LPSHJQR
PRGHUDWR
/·XIILFLR q LPSHJQDWR D YHULILFDUH OH WDULIIH LGULFKH SHU L JHVWRUL DWWLYL DQFRUD LQ IDVH
WUDQVLWRULDSHULTXDOLQRQVLDQRJLjVWDWHIRUPDOL]]DWHOHFRQYHQ]LRQLFRQJOL$72
/D VH]LRQH GL 6WDWLVWLFD VYROJH DWWLYLWj ULJXDUGDQWL OD UDFFROWD GL GDWL VWDWLVWLFL HG q LO
ULIHULPHQWR SURYLQFLDOH SHU WXWWD XQD VHULH GL LQGDJLQL 3L SUHFLVDPHQWH UDFFRJOLH H
FRQWUROODOHVFKHGHGLULOHYD]LRQHGHOO·DWWLYLWjHGLOL]LDSULYDWDHULFDYDLGDWLULJXDUGDQWL
ODFRQVLVWHQ]DGHOEHVWLDPH
/·LQGDJLQH VXOO·DWWLYLWj HGLOL]LD KD VXELWR XQD ULIRUPD LPSRUWDQWH QHO FRUVR GHO O·XIILFLR VL WURYD TXLQGL D JHVWLUH OD VLWXD]LRQH GL WUDQVLWRULHWj FRQ XQ DXPHQWR
GHOO·LPSHJQRPHQWUHQRQqDQFRUDGHILQLWRLOUXRORGHOO·XIILFLRDOODILQHGHOODUHYLVLRQH
/·XIILFLR VYROJH SRL O·DWWLYLWj SHU FRQWR GHOO·,67$7 GL FRRUGLQDPHQWR GHL FRPXQL
FDPSLRQHSHUDOFXQHLQGDJLQLTXDOLULOHYD]LRQHGHLFRQVXPLGHOOHIDPLJOLHGHOOHIRU]H
ODYRUR ULOHYD]LRQH PXOWLVFRSR SUHVVR OH IDPLJOLH /·XIILFLR HIIHWWXD DQQXDOPHQWH OD
ULOHYD]LRQH VWDWLVWLFD VXOOD JUDQGH GLVWULEX]LRQH SHU FRQWR GHO 0LQLVWHUR GHOOH $WWLYLWj
3URGXWWLYH FKH FRQVLVWH QHO FRQWDWWDUH WXWWL L VXSHUPHUFDWL JOL LSHUPHUFDWL H LJUDQGL
PDJD]]LQL GHOOD SURYLQFLD JLj SUHVHQWL QHO GDWDEDVH QRQFKp YHULILFDUH OH
DSHUWXUHFHVVD]LRQL H YDULD]LRQL/·XIILFLRFXUDDQFKHODUDFFROWDGHLGDWLUHODWLYLDOOD
VWDWLVWLFDVXL&HQWUL&RPPHUFLDOL
9
/·XIILFLR FRQWUROOD OD VWDWLVWLFD UHODWLYD DL IDOOLPHQWL UDFFRJOLHQGR OH VLQJROH VFKHGH H
ULFODVVLILFDQGROHUDFFRJOLHOHVFKHGHUHODWLYHDOOHPRGLILFKHGHOOHDXWRUL]]D]LRQLSHULO
FRPPHUFLRVXDUHDSXEEOLFD
3HU FRQWR GHOO·8QLRQFDPHUH DYYDOHQGRVL GL ULOHYDWRUL UDFFRJOLH L GDWL SHU O·LQGDJLQH
VXL IDEELVRJQL RFFXSD]LRQDOL GHQRPLQDWD ´([FHOVLRUµ ROWUH DO FRRUGLQDPHQWR GRSR
O·HODERUD]LRQH LQ VHGH FHQWUDOH YLHQH HIIHWWXDWD OD SXEEOLFD]LRQH GHO YROXPH
ULSRUWDQWHLGDWLSURYLQFLDOL/DSXEEOLFD]LRQHYLHQHDGHJXDWDPHQWHFRPPHQWDWDFRQOD
FROODERUD]LRQHGHOO·XIILFLRVWXGL
1HO FRUVR GHOO·DQQR YHQJRQR UDFFROWL GDWL SUHVVR DOWUL HQWL HG LVWLWX]LRQL SHU OD
SUHGLVSRVL]LRQH GHOOH WDEHOOH VWDWLVWLFKH SHU OD UHOD]LRQH UHJLRQDOH FXUDWD
GDOO·8QLRQFDPHUHUHJLRQDOH
/·LQIRUPD]LRQHHFRQRPLFDYLHQHFXUDWDLQPRGRSDUWLFRODUHSHUODUHDOL]]D]LRQHGHOOD
´5HOD]LRQH VXOOR VWDWR GHOO·HFRQRPLD YLFHQWLQDµ 4XHVWD SXEEOLFD]LRQH FRPSRUWD XQD
VHULH GL RSHUD]LRQL TXDOL OD YDOXWD]LRQH FULWLFD GHOO·HGL]LRQH SUHFHGHQWH OD UDFFROWD
GHL GDWL VFHOWD GHL FDSLWROL H GHOOH WDEHOOH GD LQVHULUH HODERUD]LRQH GHL JUDILFL
UHGD]LRQHGHOODSDUWHGLFRPPHQWRLQVWUHWWDFROODERUD]LRQHFRQO·XIILFLRVWXGL
1HOFRUVRGHOO·DQQRYLHQHUHGDWWRO·RSXVFROR´&RQRVFHUH9LFHQ]DµFKHYXROHHVVHUHXQR
VWUXPHQWRSLDJLOHHPLUDWRGHOOD´5HOD]LRQHµ,OYROXPHqGLVSRQLELOHDQFKHLQLQJOHVH
H YLHQH SURGRWWR FRQ XQD PHWRGRORJLD VLPLOH D TXHOOD GHOOD 5HOD]LRQH /D QRUPDWLYD
FRVLGGHWWD´WDJOLDFDUWDµSRQHDQFKHSHULOGHOOHSUREOHPDWLFKHQHOODSURGX]LRQH
GLYROXPLDQFRUDWXWWHGDYHULILFDUHQHOFRQFUHWR
/·XIILFLR VYROJH LQROWUH DWWLYLWj GL FRQVXOHQ]D ULJXDUGR L GDWL VWDWLVWLFL SHU OH ULFKLHVWH
SURYHQLHQWL GD VWXGHQWL ULFHUFDWRUL D]LHQGH DPPLQLVWUDWRUL FDPHUDOL HG DOWUL HQWL
9LHQH VYROWD DQFKH O·DWWLYLWj GL FRQVXOHQ]D VXJOL LQGLFL ,67$7 FRQ O·HIIHWWXD]LRQH GL
FRQWHJJLHULODVFLRGLGLFKLDUD]LRQL/·XIILFLRVWDWLVWLFDFROODERUDFRQO·XIILFLRVWXGLSHU
WXWWLLFRPSLWLFRQQHVVLDOOD*LRUQDWDGHOO·HFRQRPLD
$JJLRUQDPHQWR GHOOD VH]LRQH GHO VLWR GHGLFDWD DOOH LQGDJLQL LQ FRUVR 1HOO·DPELWR
GHOO·DWWLYLWj VWDWLVWLFD VL KD OD JHVWLRQH GHO SRUWDOH ´67$51(7µ UHWH GHJOL XIILFL
VWDWLVWLFDVWXGLGHOOH&DPHUHGL&RPPHUFLR
,O ELHQQLR LPSHJQHUj O·XIILFLR QHOOD JHVWLRQH GHOOH RSHUD]LRQL GL SURSULD
FRPSHWHQ]D SHU TXHO FKH FRQFHUQH L &HQVLPHQWL JHQHUDOL QRQ q DQFRUD VWDWR
IRUPDOL]]DWR O·LPSHJQR FKH YHUUj FKLHVWR DOO·XIILFLR VWDWLVWLFD DQFKH VH DSSDUH
SUREDELOH FKH YL VDUj XQ SULPR UXROR GL FRRUGLQDPHQWR SHU LO &HQVLPHQWR
GHOO·DJULFROWXUDJLjQHO
/·XIILFLR 6WXGL LQYHFH RFFXSD GXH LPSLHJDWL D WHPSR SLHQR H XQR GHL FRPSLWL SL
LPSRUWDQWLqTXHOORGHOODJHVWLRQHGHOO·LQGDJLQH´$QGDPHQWRFRQJLXQWXUDOHGHOVHWWRUH
10
PDQLIDWWXULHUR YLFHQWLQRµ /·LQGDJLQH QHO LQ DFFRUGR FRQ 8QLRQFDPHUH GHO
9HQHWR q JHVWLWDDOLYHOORUHJLRQDOHSHUTXHOFKHULJXDUGDO·LQYLRGHLTXHVWLRQDULHOH
HODERUD]LRQL GHL GDWL (· LQ FDSR DOO·XIILFLR VWXGL OD VWHVXUD GHL ULVXOWDWL SURYLQFLDOL
GHOOH DWWLYLWj GL SUHVHQWD]LRQH OD VWHVXUD GHOOD VH]LRQH SURYLQFLDOH GHO YROXPH
UHJLRQDOHHODYDORUL]]D]LRQHGHLULVXOWDWL
/·8IILFLR JHVWLVFH XQD VHULH GL EDQFKH GDWL HFRQRPLFRVWDWLVWLFKH XWLOL]]DQGROH VLD D
ILQLGLULFHUFDLQWHUQDFKHSHUIRUQLUHULVSRVWDDOOHSLGLYHUVHULFKLHVWHGLLQIRUPD]LRQL
TXDQWLWDWLYH ,QROWUH RIIUH FRQVXOHQ]D DOO·XWHQ]D LQ PDWHULD GL UHSHULPHQWR GL IRQWL
GRFXPHQWDOL H ELEOLRJUDILFKH H GL GDWL VWDWLVWLFL XWLOL D VWXGHQWL JLRUQDOLVWL
LPSUHQGLWRULHULFHUFDWRUL
&RQ SHULRGLFLWj VHPHVWUDOH O·8IILFLR SURYYHGH DOOD UHGD]LRQH GL UHOD]LRQL VLQWHWLFKH
VXOODVLWXD]LRQHHFRQRPLFDSURYLQFLDOHULFKLHVWHGDOOD3UHIHWWXUDGL9LFHQ]DFRVuFRPH
DOODUDFFROWDGLGDWLVHWWRULDOLULFKLHVWLGDJOLRUJDQLGLGLUH]LRQHGHOO·(QWHRYYHURGDOOD
SRUWDYRFHGHO3UHVLGHQWH7DOLDWWLYLWjVRQRLQSDUWHSURFHGXUDOL]]DWHLQTXDQWRVRQR
VWDWL GHILQLWL JOL LQGLFDWRUL OH IRQWL GL GDWL H OR VWDQGDUG GL UDSSRUWR GL YROWD LQ YROWD
QHFHVVDUL 6L RFFXSD LQROWUH GHOO·RSHUD GL UHGD]LRQH GL UDSSRUWL HFRQRPLFRVRFLDOLFKH
VDUDQQR LQVHULWL LQ UHWH H FKH VDUDQQR VWDPSDWL LQ XQ QXPHUR OLPLWDWR GL FRSLH R D
ULFKLHVWD OD FDGHQ]D GLSHQGH GDJOL DOWUL LPSHJQL G·XIILFLR H GDOOD FRPSOHVVLWj GHL
UDSSRUWLVWHVVL/·XIILFLRVLRFFXSDGHOO·RUJDQL]]D]LRQHGHOOD*LRUQDWDGHOO·HFRQRPLDHG
HODERUHUj LQ FROODERUD]LRQH FRQ O·XIILFLR VWDWLVWLFD LO UDSSRUWR SRL SUHVHQWDWR QHO
FRUVRGHOODJLRUQDWDVWHVVD/·XIILFLRVWXGLIDGDULIHULPHQWRDOO·LQWHUQRGHOODVWUXWWXUD
SHU TXHO FKH FRQFHUQH L WUDVSRUWL H OH LQIUDVWUXWWXUH /D OHJJH UHJLRQDOH Q KD
FRQIHULWR DOO·XIILFLR LO VHJXHQWH FRPSLWR O·DQDOLVL GHOOD YHULILFD GL FRPSDWLELOLWj
HFRQRPLFDGHLSDWWLGLGLVWUHWWRGDSURSRUUHDOOD*LXQWD&DPHUDOH
/DOHJJHUHJLRQDOHLQSDURODqVWDWDPRGLILFDWDHODVFDGHQ]DSHUODSUHVHQWD]LRQHGHL
SDWWL q VWDWD DQWLFLSDWD DO JHQQDLR PHQWUH QHO FRUVR GHOO·DQQR FL VRQR GHOOH
´ILQHVWUHµQHOFRUVRGHOOHTXDOLVLSRVVRQRSUHVHQWDUHVRODPHQWHQXRYHDGHVLRQL
/·XIILFLR FROODERUD FRQ LO&HQWUR6WXGLGL8QLRQFDPHUH9HQHWRSHUVWXGLFRQJLXQWLFRQ
OH DOWUH &RQVRUHOOH GHO 9HQHWR q SUHYLVWD LQ SDUWLFRODUH XQD UHYLVLRQH FRQWLQXD GHOOH
LQGDJLQLFRQJLXQWXUDOL
(·VWDWRLVWLWXLWRDFXUDGHOO·8QLYHUVLWjXQ2VVHUYDWRULRVXOOH3LFFROHH0HGLH,PSUHVH
HG LQROWUH O·XIILFLR q LPSHJQDWR QHOOD UHGD]LRQH GHOOD SDUWH LQL]LDOH GHOOD UHOD]LRQH
SURJUDPPDWLFDFKHIDSDUWHLQWHJUDQWHGHOELODQFLRFDPHUDOH
11
/·XOWLPDVH]LRQHGHOVHUYL]LRLQIRUPD]LRQHHFRQRPLFDULJXDUGDOD%LEOLRWHFDFKHRFFXSD
XQD SHUVRQD D WHPSR SLHQR SUHVVR OD VHGH HG XQ DVVLVWHQWH SUHVVR XQD VH]LRQH GL
GHSRVLWRSRVWDQHOPDJD]]LQRDUFKLYLRVLWRLQYLD&DWWDQHR
3HU LO QRUPDOH IXQ]LRQDPHQWR GHOOD ELEOLRWHFD FDPHUDOH YHQJRQR VYROWH PROWHSOLFL
DWWLYLWjTXDOL
-
FDWDORJD]LRQH UHJLVWUD]LRQH H FROORFD]LRQH GL OLEUL FRPSLOD]LRQH GL VFKHGH
ELEOLRJUDILFKHHGLQVHULPHQWRGLGDWLQHOSURJUDPPDLQIRUPDWLFRGLJHVWLRQH%RRNPDUN
-
UDFFROWD GL SHULRGLFL DOFXQL GHL TXDOL LQ GRWD]LRQH GL DOWUL XIILFL H ORUR
VLVWHPD]LRQHSUHVVRLOPDJD]]LQRGLGHSRVLWR
-
DVVLVWHQ]D H FRQVXOHQ]D DOO
XWHQ]D LQWHUQD HG HVWHUQD FRQ ULFHUFKH VX PDWHULDOH
FDUWDFHR H VX VXSSRUWR LQIRUPDWLFR QRQFKp LQ ,QWHUQHW IRWRFRSLDWXUD GL OHJJL H
UHJRODPHQWLDUWLFROLYDULHFFHVSHGL]LRQHDJOLXWHQWLGLGRFXPHQWLDQFKHYLD(PDLOH
ID[
-
VFDQVLRQHGLWHVWLHGLPPDJLQLSHULYDULXIILFLFDPHUDOL
/H ULFKLHVWH GD SDUWH GHOO
XWHQ]D LQWHUQD ULJXDUGDQR HVVHQ]LDOPHQWH QRUPDWLYD H
JLXULVSUXGHQ]D LWDOLDQD H FRPXQLWDULD O
XWHQ]D HVWHUQD LQYHFH FRVWLWXLWD SHU OD
PDJJLRU SDUWH GD LPSUHQGLWRUL H VWXGHQWL XQLYHUVLWDUL ULFKLHGH VLD WHVWL OHJLVODWLYL H
JLXULVSUXGHQ]LDOL FKH GRFXPHQWD]LRQH VWRULFRHFRQRPLFD FRQ SDUWLFRODUH ULIHULPHQWR
DOODUHJLRQH9HQHWRHGDOODSURYLQFLDGL9LFHQ]D
/D ELEOLRWHFD FDPHUDOH HVVHQGR LQ SRVVHVVR GL VXIILFLHQWH PDWHULDOH FDUWDFHR H GL
DOFXQHEDQFKHGDWLVXFGURPHGRQOLQHFRSUHHVDXVWLYDPHQWHOHULFKLHVWHQRUPDWLYH
PHQWUH ULVFRQWUD ODFXQH SHU TXDQWR ULJXDUGD LO PDWHULDOH VWRULFRHFRQRPLFR GHOOD
SURYLQFLD
/D ELEOLRWHFD FXUD OD JHVWLRQH GHJOL DEERQDPHQWL D TXRWLGLDQL H SHULRGLFL SHU WXWWLJOL
XIILFLFDPHUDOL9HUVRODILQHGLRJQLDQQRYLHQHFRQVHJQDWRO
HOHQFRGHOOHSXEEOLFD]LRQL
LQ DEERQDPHQWR LQ FRUVR DL GLULJHQWL H UHVSRQVDELOL GHL YDUL XIILFL FDPHUDOL L TXDOL
SURYYHGRQR D IRUQLUH LQGLFD]LRQL FLUFD LO ULQQRYR OD GLVGHWWD R QXRYH SURSRVWH SHU
O
DQQR VXFFHVVLYR 2JQL VLQJROR VHWWRUH SURYYHGH FRQ XQ SURSULR SURYYHGLPHQWR PD
WXWWDODJHVWLRQHRSHUDWLYDUHVWDLQFDULFRDOODELEOLRWHFD
/DELEOLRWHFDUDFFRJOLHHFRQVHUYDLQDSSRVLWRDUFKLYLRVWRULFRVLWXDWRQHOPDJD]]LQR
DUFKLYLR GL YLD &DWWDQHR WUH FRSLH GL RJQL SXEEOLFD]LRQH HGLWD GDOOD &DPHUD GL
&RPPHUFLR 9HUUDQQR UDFFROWH WXWWH OH SXEEOLFD]LRQL FDPHUDOL H OH PRQRJUDILH HGLWH
DQFKHLQFRHGL]LRQHFRQHQWLHGDVVRFLD]LRQLGLFDWHJRULDORFDOL
,QILQHDSDUWLUHGDOVLqDJJLXQWDODFRPSHWHQ]DUHODWLYDDOGHSRVLWROHJDOHGHOOH
SXEEOLFD]LRQL OD ELEOLRWHFD UDFFRJOLHUj HG LQYLHUj FRQ OH GRYXWH IRUPDOLWj OH
SXEEOLFD]LRQLSURGRWWHGDOO·(QWHFDPHUDOHDLFHQWULGLUDFFROWDQD]LRQDOLHUHJLRQDOH
12
,QROWUH VYROJH LO FRPSLWR UHODWLYR DOOD YHULILFD GHOOH QRWL]LH UHODWLYH DL GHFHVVL GL
SHUVRQHFKHKDQQRUHOD]LRQLFRQOD&DPHUDGL&RPPHUFLR
1HO q VWDWD UHVD SL VLVWHPDWLFD O·DWWLYLWj GL SURGX]LRQH GHO EROOHWWLQR
ELEOLRJUDILFRFRQOHLQGLFD]LRQHGHLYROXPLULFHYXWLGDOODELEOLRWHFDLQXQSHULRGRGDWR
2JJHWWRGHOORVWDJH
7DYROHGLDSSURIRQGLPHQWRVWDWLVWLFR
/DGLIIXVLRQHGLGDWLDWWUDYHUVRLOVLWRGHOODFDPHUDGLFRPPHUFLRGL9LFHQ]DqXQRGHL
PHWRGL GL FRPXQLFD]LRQH GHOO·XIILFLR GL ,QIRUPD]LRQH (FRQRPLFD FRQ LO SXEEOLFR LO
TXDOH WUDVPHWWH WDEHOOH VXL GDWL GHOOH FRRSHUDWLYH GHOO·LPSUHVD IHPPLQLOH H OD
VLWXD]LRQH VRFLRHFRQRPLFD SHU RJQL FRPXQH SUHVHQWH VXO WHUULWRULR YLFHQWLQR /D
PDQVLRQH DIILGDWDPL KD ULJXDUGDWR O·HVWUDSROD]LRQH H O·DJJLRUQDPHQWR GHL GDWL LQ
TXHVWLRQH
&RQJLXQWXUDHFRQRPLFD
$O ILQH GL PRQLWRUDUH O·DQGDPHQWR FRQJLXQWXUDOH GHOO·HFRQRPLD YHQHWD 8QLRQFDPHUH
GHO9HQHWRLQFROODERUD]LRQHFRQOH&&,$$SURYLQFLDOLHIIHWWXDXQ·LQGDJLQHVXOO·LQWHUR
WHVVXWRPDQLIDWWXULHURYHQHWR/·DFTXLVL]LRQHGLGDWLFRPSRUWDO·DQDOLVLHODGLIIXVLRQH
PHGLDWLFD GL PDWHULDOH VWDWLVWLFR WUD FXL OH YDULD]LRQLGLLQGLFLGHVWDJLRQDOL]]DWLGHOOH
VHULHVWRULFKHHFRQRPLFKHFRVWUXLWHGDOOHYDULD]LRQLULOHYDWHQHOO·LQGDJLQHSRLFKpQRQ
VRQR SUHVHQWL EDQFKH GDWL FRQWHQHQWL GHOOH VHULH VWRULFKH GHVWDJLRQDOL]]DWH D OLYHOOR
SURYLQFLDOHHUHJLRQDOH,OFRPSLWRDVVHJQDWRPLGXUDQWHLOSHULRGRGLFROODERUD]LRQHq
VWDWRTXHOORGLHODERUDUHOHVHULHVWRULFKHHGLGHVWDJLRQDOL]]DUOH
13
'HVWDJLRQDOL]]D]LRQH
/·LSRWHVLVXFXLVLEDVDODGHVWDJLRQDOL]]D]LRQHqFKHRJQLVHULHVWRULFDVLDFRPSRVWDGD
SLFRPSRQHQWLQRQRVVHUYDELOL
7UHQG7WRYYHURODWHQGHQ]DSHULOOXQJRSHULRGR
&LFOR&WFKHVRQROHIOXWWXD]LRQLDWWRUQRDOODOLQHDGHOOXQJRSHULRGR7UHQG
6WDJLRQDOLWj6WFLRqOHRVFLOOD]LRQLULFRUUHQWLDWWRUQRDO&LFOR7UHQG
,UUHJRODULWj,WODFRPSRQHQWHHUUDWLFDGHOODVHULH
4XHVWHTXDWWURFRPSRQHQWLSRVVRQRDYHUHGLYHUVHWLSLGLUHOD]LRQLRYYHURDGGLWLYD
Yt = Tt + C t + S t + I t RPROWLSOLFDWLYD
Yt = Tt × C t × S t × I t &RQ OD VFRPSRVL]LRQH GL WDOH HOHPHQWL VL SXz JLXQJHUH DOOD VHULH GHVWDJLRQDOL]]DWD
TXLQGL RVVHUYDUH O·DQGDPHQWR HIIHWWLYR GHOOD VHULH G·LQWHUHVVH FRPH VL SXz QRWDUH LQ
TXHVWR HVHPSLR LQ FXL YLHQH UDSSUHVHQWDWD OD SURGX]LRQH PDQLIDWWXULHUD PHQVLOH LQ
,WDOLD
'HVWDJLRQDOL]]DWD
*UH]]D
)RQWHHODERUD]LRQHVXGDWL,VWDW
GRYHFRQODOLQHDURVVDqUDSSUHVHQWDWDODVHULHJUH]]DPHQWUHFRQODOLQHDEOXODVHULH
GHVWDJLRQDOL]]DWD
14
6RIWZDUH8WLOL]]DWR
, PHWRGL SHU OD VFRPSRVL]LRQH LQ IDWWRULGHOOHVHULHVWRULFKHVRQRYDULHHLSURJUDPPL
GD XWLOL]]DUH VRQR PROWHSOLFL LQ SDUWLFRODUH LO VRIWZDUH XWLOL]]DWR q75$026($76FRQ
LQWHUIDFFLD'HPHWUD6LqVFHOWRGLXWLOL]]DUHTXHVWRSURJUDPPDLQTXDQWRFLVLqYROXWR
XQLIRUPDUHDOO·,VWDWLOTXDOHVIUXWWDODPHGHVLPDPHWRGRORJLD
,QWURGX]LRQHD75$026($76
75$02 6($76 q O·DFURQLPR GL 7LPH VHULHV 5HJUHVVLRQ ZLWK $ULPD QRLVH 0LVVLQJ
REVHUYDWLRQ DQG 2XWOLHUV H GL 6LJQDO ([WUDFWLRQ LQ $ULPD 7LPH 6HULHV FKH VLJQLILFDQR
ULVSHWWLYDPHQWH´UHJUHVVLRQHGLVHULHVWRULFKHFRQ$5,0$QRLVHRVVHUYD]LRQLPDQFDQWL
HRXWOLHUVµH´HVWUD]LRQHGLVHJQDOHLQVHULHVWRULFKH$5,0$µ
3DUWHQGR GDO SUHVXSSRVWR FKH RJQL VHULH VWRULFD SRVVD HVVHUH GHILQLWD FRQ TXHVWR
PRGHOOR
k
yt = wt + zt = ¦ β i xit + zt
i =1
VLSXzDIIHUPDUHFKH75$02ODYRUDVXOSULPRFRPSRQHQWHZWH6($76VXOODVHFRQGD
]W FKH YHUUDQQR PHJOLR DQDOL]]DWH QHOOH SDJLQH VHJXHQWL 'XQTXH LO VRIWZDUH
XWLOL]]DWRODYRUDLQGXHSDUWL
-
ODSULPDFRVWLWXLWDGD75$02qGHGLFDWDDGHOLPLQDUHGDOODVHULHVWRULFDG·LQWHUHVVH
LFRVLGGHWWLHIIHWWLGHWHUPLQLVWLFLGRYXWLDOGLYHUVRQXPHURGLJLRUQLODYRUDWLYLQHLYDUL
SHULRGLGLULIHULPHQWRDOODSUHVHQ]DGLIHVWLYLWjPRELOLLQTXHVWRFDVROD3DVTXDHGL
YDORULDQRPDOL75$02LQROWUHLGHQWLILFDHVWLPDLOPRGHOOR$5,0$FKHGHVFULYHODVHULH
VWRULFD
-
ODSDUWHGL6($76LQYHFHDSSOLFDODGHVWDJLRQDOL]]D]LRQHDOODVHULHVWRULFDWUDPLWHLO
PRGHOORLGHQWLILFDWRGD75$02LGHQWLILFDQGRLQROWUHODSDUWHVWRFDVWLFD
75$02 6($76 q XQD SURFHGXUD GHO WLSR PRGHOEDVHG RYYHUR ULFHUFD LO PRGHOOR
VWDWLVWLFRSHUODGHVFUL]LRQHGHOODVHULHVWRULFDLQHVDPHSHUSRLHVDPLQDUHWDOHPRGHOOR
FRQGHLWHVWVWDWLVWLFLSHUGHILQLUHODERQWjGHOORVWHVVR
15
75$02
/D SDUWH GL 75$02 HIIHWWXD O·LGHQWLILFD]LRQH H OD VWLPD GL XQ PRGHOOR GL UHJUHVVLRQH
FRQ HUURUL DXWRFRUUHODWL 6XSSRQHQGR FKH OD VHULH \W GD DQDOL]]DUH SRVVD HVVHUH
VFRPSRVWD LQ XQD SDUWH GHWHUPLQLVWLFD ZW H LQ XQD SDUWH VWRFDVWLFD ]W LO PRGHOOR
FRQVLGHUDWRGDOSURJUDPPDq
k
yt = wt + zt = ¦ β i xit + zt
i =1
GRYH OH [LW VRQR N YDULDELOL QRQ VWRFDVWLFKH H L β L L FRUULVSRQGHQWL FRHIILFLHQWL GL
UHJUHVVLRQH,QSDUWLFRODUHLWHUPLQL β L[LWPLVXUDQRJOLHIIHWWLGHWHUPLQLVWLFLLPSXWDELOL
D IHQRPHQL TXDOL OD SUHVHQ]D GL IHVWLYLWj ILVVH R ´PRELOLµ DG HVHPSLR OD 3DVTXD
O·HVLVWHQ]D GL YDORUL DQRPDOL RXWOLHU OHJDWL D IHQRPHQL DFFLGHQWDOL R VWUDRUGLQDUL
VFLRSHUL FDODPLWj QDWXUDOL HFF LO GLYHUVR QXPHUR GL JLRUQL ODYRUDWLYL QHL PHVL R
WULPHVWUL
6L LSRWL]]D LQROWUH FKH OD SDUWH VWRFDVWLFD ]W VHJXD XQ VXR PRGHOOR $5,0$ VWDJLRQDOH
RYYHUR
φ( B )Φ( Bs )( 1 − B )d ( 1 − Bs )D zt = θ ( B )Θ( Bs )at GRYH%qO
RSHUDWRUHULWDUGREDFNZDUGφ%θ%VRQRSROLQRPLQHOO
RSHUDWRUHULWDUGR
%GLRUGLQHSHTULVSHWWLYDPHQWH
Φ( B s ) = 1 − Φ 1 B s − Φ 2 B 2 s − ... − Φ P B Ps
Θ( B s ) = 1 + Θ1 B s + Θ 2 B 2 s + ... + Θ Q B Qs H OH YDULDELOL DW UDSSUHVHQWDQR GLVWXUEL
LQFRUUHODWLFRQPHGLDQXOODZKLWHQRLVHSHULTXDOLDLILQLGHOODVWLPDHGHOODYHULILFD
GHOOH LSRWHVL YLHQH JHQHUDOPHQWH DVVXQWD O
LSRWHVL GL QRUPDOLWj &RPELQDQGR OH
HVSUHVVLRQLLOOXVWUDWHLQSUHFHGHQ]DRWWHQLDPRODVHJXHQWHHTXD]LRQH
k
φ ( B)Φ( B )(1 − B) (1 − B ) ( yt − ¦ β i xit ) = θ (B)Θ( B s )at
s
d
s D
i =1
/D VHTXHQ]D RSHUDWLYD SHU O
LGHQWLILFD]LRQH H OD VWLPD GHO PRGHOOR VRSUD LOOXVWUDWR
PHGLDQWH LO SURJUDPPD 75$02 SXz HVVHUH GHVFULWWD QHO VHJXHQWH PRGR ,Q SULPD
16
LVWDQ]DODVHULH\WYLHQHGHSXUDWDGDJOLHIIHWWLGHWHUPLQLVWLFL VWLPDWLSHUYHQHQGRDOOD
VHULH z t = ( y t −
k
¦β
i =1
i
x it ) 6XFFHVVLYDPHQWH OD VHULH ]W TXDORUD VL UHQGD QHFHVVDULR YLHQH UHVD VWD]LRQDULD
DSSOLFDQGRULVSHWWLYDPHQWHGYROWHH'YROWHJOLRSHUDWRULGLIIHUHQ]DSULPD ∆ = 1 − B H
GLIIHUHQ]D
VWDJLRQDOH
∆ s = 1 − B s RWWHQHQGR
FRVu
XQD
QXRYD
VHULH
vt = ( 1 − B )d ( 1 − B s ) D z t $TXHVWRSXQWRLOSURJUDPPD SURFHGHDOO
LGHQWLILFD]LRQHHG
DOODVWLPDGLXQPRGHOOR$50$SHUYW
/DSDUWHGHWHUPLQLVWLFDFRPSUHQGHJOLHIIHWWLGHLJLRUQLODYRUDWLYLOHIHVWLYLWjHLYDORUL
DQRPDOL 7DOL YDORUL YHQJRQR LPSRVWL GDO SURJUDPPD DXWRPDWLFDPHQWH DOWUH LQYHFH
DG HVHPSLR UHJUHVVRUL HVWHUQL SRVVRQR HVVHUH LQVHULWL GDOO·RSHUDWRUH /·RXWSXW GL
75$02 q OD VHULH OLQHDUL]]DWD ]W FKH VDUj QHFHVVDULD SHU OD GHVWDJLRQDOL]]D]LRQH H
VFRPSRVL]LRQHLQIDWWRULGDSDUWHGL6($76
17
36($76
8QD YROWD GHSXUDWD OD VHULH QH ULVXOWD OD VHULH OLQHDUL]]DWD ]W ULVXOWDQWH GHOOD
LQWHUD]LRQH GL WUH IDWWRUL QRQ RVVHUYDELOL RYYHUR LO &LFOR7UHQG 7W OD FRPSRQHQWH
VWDJLRQDOH 6W H OD FRPSRQHQWH LUUHJRODUH ,W /D SULPD GHOOH WUH UDSSUHVHQWD
O·DQGDPHQWR QHO PHGLROXQJR SHULRGR GHOOD VHULH OD FRPSRQHQWH VWDJLRQDOH OH
RVFLOOD]LRQLSHULRGLFKHHODFRPSRQHQWHLUUHJRODUHWLHQHFRQWRGHLPRYLPHQWLHUUDWLFL
/·LQWHUD]LRQHWUDTXHVWHFRPSRQHQWLSXzHVVHUHGLWLSRDGGLWLYDRPROWLSOLFDWLYD
3RLFKp OD VFRPSRVL]LRQH LQ IDWWRUL GHOOD VHULH GD SDUWH GL 6($76 q EDVDWD VXOO·DQDOLVL
GHOOD VHULH QHO GRPLQLR GHOOH IUHTXHQ]H q QHFHVVDULR DIIURQWDUH O·DUJRPHQWR
GHOO·DQDOLVLVSHWWUDOH
,QQDQ]LWXWWR VL ULFRUGD FKH TXDOVLDVL SURFHVVR VWRFDVWLFR FRQ PHGLD µ SRVVLHGH XQD
UDSSUHVHQWD]LRQHVSHWWUDOHGHOWLSR
π
π
0
0
zt = µ + ³ α (ω ) cos(ωt )dω + ³ ∂ (ω )sin(ωt )dω GRYHωqXQDIUHTXHQ]DHVSUHVVDLQUDGLDQWLHGαωHδωVRQRGXHYDULDELOLFDVXDOLGL
PHGLDQXOOD
/DIXQ]LRQHGLDXWRFRYDULDQ]DGHOSURFHVVR]WSXzHVVHUHHVSUHVVDQHOVHJXHQWHPRGR
π
γ k = E( zt , zt −k ) = ³ e iωk f ( ω )dω
−π
GRYH
e iωk = cos(ωk ) + i sin(ωk ) H i = − 1 /D Iω q QRWD FRPH IXQ]LRQH GL GHQVLWj VSHWWUDOH R VSHWWUR H OD VXD IRUPXOD q OD
VHJXHQWH
f (ω ) =
1 ∞
−ikω
¦γ ke
2π k =−∞
18
,QROWUH SRQHQGR N QHOOD IXQ]LRQH GL DXWRFRYDULDQ]D VL RWWLHQH OD YDULDQ]D γ GHO
SURFHVVRVWRFDVWLFR
π
γ 0 = ³ f ( ω )dω
−π
'D TXHVWD HVSUHVVLRQH VL SXz IDFLOPHQWH JLXQJHUH DOOD FRQFOXVLRQH FKH O·DUHD VRWWHVD
DOODIXQ]LRQHIωQHOO·LQWHUYDOORFKLXVR>ππ@qSDULDOODYDULDQ]DGHOSURFHVVRPHQWUH
IωGω UDSSUHVHQWD OD YDULDQ]D QHOO·LQWHUR SURFHVVR GRYXWD DOOH FRPSRQHQWL FRQ
IUHTXHQ]DFRPSUHVDQHOO¶LQWHUYDOORFKLXVR>ωωGω@3HUWDQWRXQHOHYDWRYDORUHGHOOR
VSHWWURLQFRUULVSRQGHQ]DGHOODIUHTXHQ]DωVLJQLILFDFKHODFRPSRQHQWHGHOSURFHVVR
]WFDUDWWHUL]]DWDGDTXHOODSDUWLFRODUHIUHTXHQ]DFRQWULEXLVFHLQODUJDSDUWHDVSLHJDUH
OD YDULDQ]D GHO SURFHVVR PHQWUH XQ EDVVR YDORUH GL Iω LQGLFD FKH LO FRQWULEXWR GL
TXHOODFRPSRQHQWHqSLFFROR
&RPHSUHFHGHQWHPHQWHDFFHQQDWRLOPRGHOORVWDWLVWLFRFKHGHVFULYHODVHULHVWRULFDq
IRUPDWR GD WUH FRPSRQHQWL LO &LFOR7UHQG OD 6WDJLRQDOLWj H OD FRPSRQHQWH HUUDWLFD
FKHSRVVRQRHVVHUHVFULWWHLQWDOPRGR
z t = Tt + S t + I t 0HQWUH OD VHULH GHVWDJLRQDOL]]DWD VDW q OD ULVXOWDQWH GHOOD VRPPD WUD LO &LFOR7UHQG H
FRPSRQHQWHLUUHJRODUHTXLQGL
s at = Tt + I t ,OSURFHGLPHQWRJUD]LHDOTXDOH6($76HVWUDSRODLFRPSRQHQWLGHOPRGHOORILQDOHSDUWH
GDOPRGHOOR$5,0$LGHQWLILFDWRHVWLPDWRGD75$02FKHqGHOWLSR
ϕ ( B )zt = ϑ( B )at GRYH
ϕ ( B ) = φ ( B )Φ ( B s )( 1 − B )d ( 1 − B s ) D H
ϑ ( B ) = θ ( B )Θ ( B s ) HDWqXQZKLWHQRLVH
6($76 VFRPSRQH OD VHULH ]W LQ PRGR WDOH FKH RJQL VXD FRPSRQHQWH VHJXD XQ PRGHOOR
$5,0$GHOWLSR
ϕ T ( B)Tt = θ T ( B)aTt 19
ϕ S ( B) S t = θ S ( B)a St H I t = u t GRYHD7WD6WXWVRQRHUURULZKLWHQRLVHHLGXHSROLQRPLϕ7%Hϕ6%QRQKDQQRUDGLFL
LQFRPXQH
'XQTXHODVHULHYLHQHHVSUHVVDGD6($76LQWDOPRGR
zt =
ϑ (B)
ϑ (B)
ϑ( B )
at = T
a + ut
aTt + S
ϕ( B )
ϕT ( B )
ϕ S ( B ) St
,Q DOWUL WHUPLQL VL LSRWL]]D FKH OH FRPSRQHQWL VHJXDQR PRGHOOL $5,0$ FRHUHQWL FRQ LO
PRGHOOR $5,0$ VHJXLWR GDOOD VHULH ]W 6H OR VSHWWUR GL WXWWH OH FRPSRQHQWL q QRQ
QHJDWLYR DOORUD OD VFRPSRVL]LRQH q GHWWD DPPLVVLELOH 3RLFKp DG RJQL PRGHOOR $5,0$
SHU OD VHULH ]W VRQR DVVRFLDWH LQILQLWH VFRPSRVL]LRQL DPPLVVLELOLFRPHQHOO·HVSUHVVLRQH
VRSUDLQGLFDWD HVLVWH FLRq XQ SUREOHPD GL VRYUDLGHQWLILFD]LRQH q QHFHVVDULR
LGHQWLILFDUH OD VROD VFRPSRVL]LRQH DPPLVVLELOH XWLOH SHU O
LGHQWLILFD]LRQH HVWLPDGHOOH
FRPSRQHQWL (
SRVVLELOH GLPRVWUDUH FKH OH VFRPSRVL]LRQL DPPLVVLELOL VRQR XJXDOL WUD
ORURDPHQRGLTXRWHGHOODYDULDQ]DWRWDOHLPSXWDELOLDOOHGLYHUVHFRPSRQHQWL4XLQGL
XQD GHOOH SRVVLELOL SURFHGXUH GL LGHQWLILFD]LRQH FRQVLVWH QHOOR VFHJOLHUH TXHOOD
VFRPSRVL]LRQH DPPLVVLELOH FKH DVVHJQD ODPDJJLRUTXRWDGLYDULDQ]DDOODFRPSRQHQWH
LUUHJRODUH 7DOH VFRPSRVL]LRQH YLHQH GHWWD FDQRQLFD HG q TXHOOD HIIHWWLYDPHQWH
XWLOL]]DWDGD6($76
6L QRWL FKH VH LO PRGHOOR LGHQWLILFDWR LQ 75$02 QRQ DPPHWWH DOFXQD VFRPSRVL]LRQH
DPPLVVLELOH 6($76 PRGLILFD RSSRUWXQDPHQWH WDOH PRGHOOR RWWHQHQGRQH XQR FRQ WDOH
SURSULHWj
'RSR DYHU LGHQWLILFDWR L PRGHOOL $5,0$ 6($76 VWLPD L ORUR FRPSRQHQWL PHGLDQWH
O·XWLOL]]RGLRSSRUWXQLILOWULOLQHDULGHULYDWLGDJOLVWHVVLPRGHOOL$5,0$
6L ULFRUGD FKH XQ ILOWUR OLQHDUH λ% LQYDULDQWH ULVSHWWR DO WHPSR SXz HVVHUH HVSUHVVR
FRPH
λ ( B) =
∞
¦λ
k = −∞
k
Bk ∞
GRYH L SHVL λN VRQR QXPHUL UHDOL WDOL FKH
¦λ
2
k
HVSOLFLWDUHJOLVWLPDWRULGLRJQLVLQJRODFRPSRQHQWH
k = −∞
< ∞ /
XVR GHL ILOWUL FRQVHQWH GL
,Q SDUWLFRODUH 6($76 XWLOL]]D LO ILOWUR :LHQHU.ROPRJRURY FKH qVLPPHWULFRLQILQLWRH
FRQYHUJHQWHHFRQVHQWHGLRWWHQHUHORVWLPDWRUHRWWLPDOHGHOOHFRPSRQHQWL3RLFKpOD
SURSULHWjGHOODFRQYHUJHQ]DLPSOLFDFKHLSHVLWHQGDQRDTXDORUDNWHQGDD“∞QHOOH
DSSOLFD]LRQLYHQJRQRXWLOL]]DWLILOWULRSSRUWXQDPHQWHWURQFDWLDVHFRQGDGHOQXPHURGL
20
RVVHUYD]LRQL D GLVSRVL]LRQH /H SULQFLSDOL FDUDWWHULVWLFKH GHO ILOWUR :. VRQR
SULQFLSDOPHQWHTXHVWH
-
0LQLPL]]DO·HUURUHTXDGUDWLFRPHGLRGHOODVWLPDGHOFRPSRQHQWHRVVLDqXQ006(
0LQLPXP0HDQ6TXDUHG(UURU(VWLPDWRU
-
5DSSUHVHQWDEHQHLOVHJQDOHRYHOHIUHTXHQ]HSHUOHTXDOLODGHQVLWjVSHWWUDOHGHOOD
FRPSRQHQWH VLD DOWD DO FRQWUDULR OR VRWWRVWLPD LQ FRUULVSRQGHQ]D GHOOH IUHTXHQ]H LQ
FXL OD GHQVLWj VLD EDVVD 4XHVWR SHFXOLDUH IXQ]LRQDPHQWR GHOOR VWLPDWRUH ID VL FKH OD
VXDYDULDELOLWjVLDVHPSUHLQIHULRUHDTXHOODGHOODFRPSRQHQWH
-
*OL VWLPDWRUL GHOOH FRPSRQHQWL SRVVRQR HVVHUH FRUUHODWL WUD ORUR QRQRVWDQWH OH
FRPSRQHQWLQRQORVLDQR
3HUXQDJHQHULFDFRPSRQHQWH&WLOFRUULVSRQGHQWHVWLPDWRUHqGDWRGD
E (C t | z1 , K , z t ) = αc( B) z t GRYHαF%qXQSROLQRPLRQHOO·RSHUDWRUHULWDUGR%
*OL VWLPDWRUL RWWHQXWL SRVVRQR HVVHUH GL YDULR WLSR D VHFRQGD GHOO·LVWDQWH WHPSRUDOH W
SHU LO TXDOH VL YXROH RWWHQHUH XQD VWLPD ,QGLFDQGR FRQ 7 O·XOWLPR LVWDQWH WHPSRUDOH
SHULOTXDOHVLGLVSRQHGLRVVHUYD]LRQLJOLVWLPDWRULSRVVRQRHVVHUHVXGGLYLVLLQ
Ÿ
6WLPDWRULSUHOLPLQDULVHW7ǚW_7
Ÿ
6WLPDWRULFRQFXUUHQWVHW 7ǚW_7
Ÿ
6WLPDWRULILQDOLVH7→∞ǚW
,QROWUHTXDQGRW!7ORVWLPDWRUHUDSSUHVHQWDODSUHYLVLRQHGHOODFRPSRQHQWHULVSHWWRD
W7SHULRGLLQDYDQWL
,QFRUULVSRQGHQ]DGLRJQLVWLPDWRUHVLSRVVRQRLQGLYLGXDUHGLYHUVLWLSLGLHUURUH
Ÿ
(UURUHGLVWLPDILQDOH→δ&W &WǚW
Ÿ
(UURUHGLVWLPDSUHOLPLQDUH→δ&W_7 &W²ǚW_7
Ÿ
(UURUHGLUHYLVLRQH→U&W_7 ǚWǚW_7
Ÿ
(UURUHGLUHYLVLRQHWRWDOH→U&W_7 ǚW²ǚ7_7
6LQRWLFKHXQDJHQHULFDFRPSRQHQWH&WSXzHVVHUHHVSUHVVDFRPH
Ct = α C ( B ) zt = α C ( B )
∞
ϑ( B )
at = ψ C ( B )a t = ¦ψ Ci a t +i ϕ( B )
i = −∞
21
/D IRUPXOD VRSUD LOOXVWUDWD VL RWWLHQH DSSOLFDQGR LO ILOWUR :. DOOD VHULH RVVHUYDWD ]W H
VRVWLWXHQGRTXHVW·XOWLPDFRQ
zt =
ϑ (B)
ϑ (B)
ϑ( B )
a St + ut aTt + S
at = T
ϕ( B )
ϕT ( B )
ϕS ( B )
,O UHODWLYR VWLPDWRUH ILQDOH ǚW VL RWWLHQH VRVWLWXHQGR DL SROLQRPL ϑ% ϕ% α&% OH
FRUULVSRQGHQWL VWLPH PHQWUH JOL VWLPDWRUL SUHOLPLQDUL H FRQFXUUHQW VL RWWHQJRQR
WURQFDQGR RSSRUWXQDPHQWH LO WHUPLQH VXSHULRUH GHOOD VXSHULRUH GHOOD VRPPDWRULD /H
VWLPHGHLFRHIILFLHQWLψ&LVRQRGHWWHSVLZHLJKWV
/·HUURUHGLUHYLVLRQHSXzDQFKHHVVHUHHVSUHVVRFRPHVHJXH
rCt |T =
∞
¦ψ
j = −∞
Cj
at+ j −
T −t
¦ψ
j = −∞
Cj
at+ j =
∞
¦ψ
j =T − t +1
Cj
at− j 6XSSRQHQGRVHQ]DSHUGLWDGLJHQHUDOLWjFKHODYDULDQ]DGHLGLVWXUELDWVLDXQLWDULDOD
YDULDQ]DGHOO·HUURUHGLUHYLVLRQHU&W_7SXzHVVHUHHVSUHVVDFRPH
var( rCt|T ) =
∞
¦ ψ Cj
j =T −t +1
2
,QDJJLXQWDqSRVVLELOHGLPRVWUDUHFKH
lim var( rCt|T ) = lim
T →∞
∞
¦
ψ Cj 2 = 0 T → ∞ j =T − t +1
,Q YLUW GHO OLPLWH VRSUD LOOXVWUDWR O·HUURUH GL UHYLVLRQH GLYHQWD WUDVFXUDELOH GRSR XQ
FHUWRQXPHURGLSHULRGLFKHHTXLYDOHDGLUHFKHORVWLPDWRUHSUHOLPLQDUHFRQYHUJHD
TXHOORILQDOH
4XHVWD SURFHGXUD GL DQDOLVL GHOOH VHULH VWRULFKH q DSSOLFDWR GDO SURJUDPPD 75$02
6($76 FKH q VWDWR LQVWDOODWR SUHVVR OD &DPHUD GL &RPPHUFLR GL 9LFHQ]D H FKH YHUUj
XWLOL]]DWR SHU OH SURVVLPH DQDOLVL GDOO·XIILFLR VWDWLVWLFD (· VWDWR GHFLVR GL XWLOL]]DUH
TXHVWRSURJUDPPDHTXHVWRPHWRGRGLDQDOLVLSHUGXHPRWLYLRYYHURXQLIRUPDUVLFRQ
JOLVWXGLIDWWLGDOO·,VWDWHGDOODVHPSOLFLWjGLXWLOL]]R
22
*OL2XWOLHUV
&RPH VL q YLVWR JOL RXWOLHUV SUHVHQWDQR XQ RVWDFROR DOOD FRVWUX]LRQH GHL PRGHOOL
VWDWLVWLFL H SHUFLz YHUUDQQR UDSSUHVHQWDWL L SULQFLSDOL WLSL GL RXWOLHUV FKH VROLWDPHQWH
YHQJRQRWURYDWLGXUDQWHOHHODERUD]LRQL
$GGLWLYH2XOLHUV$2
*OLDGGLWLYHYDOXHVFRUULVSRQGRQRDSXQWLLVRODWLFKHSRWUHEEHURFRQFHUQHUHO·HIIHWWRGL
XQRVFLRSHURXQHYHQWRFOLPDWLFRHWF
,,,
,,,
,,,
,,,
,,,
,,,
,,,
,,,
,,,
,,,
,,,
4XHVWRWLSRGLHYHQWRqLQWHJUDWRQHOODFRPSRQHQWHLUUHJRODUH
/HYHO6KLIW/6
,OHYHOVKLIWFRUULVSRQGRQRDGXQFDPELRGHOYDORUHPHGLRQHOODVHULHFKHSHUSHWXDSHU
LO UHVWR GHOOD VHULH 4XHVWR WLSR GL HYHQWR DYYLHQH SHU HVHPSLR TXDQGR OD VHULH
FDPELDEDVH
23
,,,
,,,
,,,
,,,
,,,
,,,
,,,
,,,
,,,
,,,
,,,
,OHYHOVKLIWYHQJRQRDIIURQWDWLGD75$026($76FRPHXQDFRPSRQHQWHFKHPRGLILFDLO
WUHQGGHOODVHULH
7UDQVLWRU\&KDQJH7&
, WUDQVLWRU\ FKDQJH GHVFULYRQR XQD URWWXUD FRQ XQ ULWRUQR DOOD VLWXD]LRQH LQL]LDOH
VLPLOPHQWH DJOL DGGLWLYH FKDQJH PD D GLIIHUHQ]D GHL SULPL QHFHVVLWDQR GL XQ FHUWR
ODVVRGLWHPSRSHUWRUQDUHDOOLYHOORLQL]LDOH
,,,
,,,
,,,
,,,
,,,
,,,
,,,
,OWUDQVLWRU\FKDQJHqXQHYHQWRGLWLSRLUUHJRODUH
24
,,,
,,,
,,,
,,,
/DGHVWDJLRQDOL]]D]LRQHGHJOLLQGLFLORFDOL
/H VHULH DQDOL]]DWH VRQR ULIHULWH D WXWWH OH D]LHQGH PDQLIDWWXULHUH GHO YLFHQWLQR FRQ
DOPHQR DGGHWWL H ULJXDUGDQR JOL LQGLFL GL 3URGX]LRQH )DWWXUDWR 7RWDOH HG (VWHUR
SHVDWLVXOIDWWXUDWRD]LHQGDOH/HVHULHVRQRWULPHVWUDOLHVLULIHULVFRQRDOSHULRGRFKH
YDGDOSULPRWULPHVWUHDRJJL
4XHVWL LQGLFL VRQR VWDWL RJJHWWR GL VWXGLR SHU XQ VXFFHVVLYR FRQIURQWR FRQ OH VHULH
JUH]]H GHO 9HQHWR HODERUDWH H GHVWDJLRQDOL]]DWH FRQJLXQWDPHQWH DOOH VHULH GHO
YLFHQWLQR H OH VHULH GHVWDJLRQDOL]]DWH IRUQLWH GDOO·,VWDW ULJXDUGDQWL OH D]LHQGH
PDQLIDWWXULHUH LWDOLDQH 'D VRWWROLQHDUH FKH LO FRQIURQWR FRQ O·,WDOLD QRQ q GHO WXWWR
HVDWWRSRLFKpVLFRQIURQWDQRGXHWLSLGLYHUVLGLFDPSLRQLPDFLzqVWDWRREEOLJDWRULRD
FDXVD GHOOD EUHYH VHULH VWRULFD LPPDJD]]LQDWD QHO WHPSR GD SDUWH GL 8QLRQFDPHUH
ULJXDUGDQWHO·LQWHUDDUHDPDQLIDWWXULHUDTXHVWRSHUzQRQFRPSRUWDJURVVHOLPLWD]LRQL
SRLFKpVXOWRWDOHGHOOHD]LHQGHPDQLIDWWXULHUHTXHOOHFKHSHVDQRGLSLFLUFDLO
SHU FHQWR QHO FDPSLRQH 9LFHQWLQR VRQR SURSULR TXHOOH FKH SUHVHQWDQR XQ QXPHUR
VXSHULRUHDDGGHWWL
/H VHULH DQDOL]]DWH SHU OD GHVWDJLRQDOL]]D]LRQH VRQR VWDWH ULFRVWUXLWH FRQ O·XWLOL]]R
GHOOH YDULD]LRQL FRQJLXQWXUDOL GHO WULPHVWUH LQ DQDOLVL ULVSHWWR DO WULPHVWUH
SUHFHGHQWH FRVWUXLWH SRQHQGR O·DQQR XJXDOH D 4XHVWD GHFLVLRQH q VWDWD
SUHVDVRSUDWWXWWRSHUXQLIRUPDUVLFRQLGDWL,VWDWSRLFKpSUHFHGHQWHPHQWHO·DQQREDVH
HUD LO 3HU SRWHU FUHDUH XQD VHULH FRQ EDVH VL SRQH LO SULPR WULPHVWUH
XJXDOHDHVLULFRVWUXLVFHLOUHVWRGHOO·DQQRVHFRQGROHYDULD]LRQLFRQJLXQWXUDOL
RVVHUYDWH VXFFHVVLYDPHQWH VL FDOFROD OD PHGLD GHOO·DQQR LQ TXHVWR FDVR H VL
ULFDOFRODLOSULPRWULPHVWUHXWLOL]]DQGRTXHVWDIRUPXOD
I trimestre 2005 =
100
× 100 media 2005
6XFFHVVLYDPHQWHVLqFDOFRODWDODVHULHVXOODEDVHGHOSULPRWULPHVWUHXWLOL]]DQGR
OHYDULD]LRQLFRQJLXQWXUDOL
25
3URGX]LRQHLQGXVWULDOH
,O SULPR LQGLFH WUDWWDWR VDUj TXHOOR GHOOD SURGX]LRQH H O·RXWSXW ULVXOWDWR GDO
SURJUDPPDqLOVHJXHQWH
Information on Models
Series Span (n°of obs.)
Model Span (n°of obs.)
Method
PRE-ADJUSTMENT
Transformation
Mean Correction
Correction for Trading Day Effects
Correction for Easter Effects
Correction for Outliers
Critical t-value
LS Q1.2009 t-value
Corr. for Missing Obs.
Corr. for Other Regr. Effects
Specif. Of the ARIMA model
Non-seas. MA (lag 1) value
Non-seas. MA (lag 1) t-value
Seasonal MA (lag 4) value
Seasonal MA (lag 4) t-value
Method of Estimation
DECOMPOSITION
Arima decomposition
Seasonality
Information on Diagnostics
SA quality index (stand. to 10)
STATISTICS ON RESIDUALS
Ljung-Box on residuals
Box-Pierce on residuals
Ljung-Box on squared residuals
Box-Pierce on squared residuals
DESCRIPTION OF RESIDUALS
Normality
Skewness
Kurtosis
OUTLIERS
Percentage of outliers
Q4.1999 – Q2.2011 (47)
Q4.1999 – Q2.2011 (47)
Tramo/Seats
Logarithm
None
None
None
Autom.:AO,LS,TC; 1 Outlier fixed
3.000
-3.78 [-3.000, 3.000] crit.val.
None
None
(0 1 1)(0 1 1) (fixed)
0.3811
2.49 [-2.009, 2.009] 5%
-0.7881
-4.85 [-2.009, 2.009] 5%
Exact Maximum Likelihood
Exact
Seasonal model used
1.584 [0, 10] ad-hoc
6.88 [0, 18.30] 5%
0.94 [0, 5.99] 5%
4.62 [0, 18.30] 5%
2.27 [0, 5.99] 5%
0.24 [0, 5.99] 5%
-0.09 [-0.75, 0.75] 5%
2.67 [1.50, 4.50] 5%
2.13% [0%, 5.0%] ad-hoc
26
'DTXHVWDHODERUD]LRQHQHULVXOWDLOJUDILFRFKHVHJXH
3URGX]LRQH,QGLFHJUH]]RHGHVWDJLRQDOL]]DWRSHU9LFHQ]D
*UH]]D
'HVWDJLRQDOL]]DWD
,,,
,,,
,,,
,,,
,,,
,,,
,,,
,,,
,,,
,,,
)RQWHHODERUD]LRQHVXGDWL9HQHWR&RQJLXQWXUD
,,,
,OSURJUDPPDKDUHVWLWXLWRXQPRGHOOR$5,0$GHILQLWR$LUOLQHRYYHUR6H
KDGHILQLWRFRPHXQLFRRXWOLHULOGDWRFKHVLULIHULVFHDOSULPRWULPHVWUHLOTXDOH
FRLQFLGH HVDWWDPHQWH FRQ O·LQL]LR GHOSHULRGRGLFULVLULOHYDWRQHOO·LQGDJLQH,QTXHVWR
FDVR O·RXWOLHU q XQ /HYHO 6KLIW RYYHUR OD VHULH KD VXELWR XQ DEEDVVDPHQWR UHSHQWLQR
GLPRVWUDQGR XQD GLVFRQWLQXLWj GRSR OD TXDOH KD FRQWLQXDWR OD VXD HYROX]LRQH FRQ OR
VWHVVR SULQFLSLR GL DYDQ]DPHQWR UHJLVWUDWR SULPD GL TXHVWR HYHQWR ,QROWUH L WHVW
VWDWLVWLFLSHUGHILQLUHODERQWjGHOPRGHOORVRQRVWDWLVXSHUDWLFRUUHWWDPHQWH
27
&RQIURQWDQGRODVHULHHODERUDWDGD75$026($76VLSRVVRQRIDUHFRQIURQWLWHUULWRULDOL
3URGX]LRQH,QGLFLGHVWDJLRQDOL]]DWLGHOODSURGX]LRQHSHU9LFHQ]D9HQHWRH,WDOLD
9LFHQ]D
9HQHWR
,WDOLD
,,,
,,,
,,,
,,,
,,,
,,,
)RQWHHODERUD]LRQHVXGDWL9HQHWR&RQJLXQWXUDH,VWDW
,,,
,,,
,,,
,,,
,,,
'DOJUDILFRVLGHQRWDODGLIIHUHQWHGLQDPLFDGLFUHVFLWDGDSDUWHGHOOHLPSUHVHYHQHWH
GDTXHOOHLWDOLDQHLQIDWWLLQWXWWD,WDOLDF·qVWDWDXQDVRUWDGL´VWDELOLWjµGDOILQR
DOWHU]RWULPHVWUHLQL]LRGHOODFULVLJOREDOH'LIIHUHQWHPHQWHOHLPSUHVHYHQHWHH
SL LQ SDUWLFRODUH TXHOOH EHULFKH KDQQR VXELWR XQD LPSRUWDQWH FUHVFLWD SURGXWWLYD
GDOO·LQL]LR GHO PLOOHQQLR DO SHU SRL DFFRGDUVL DO UHVWR G·,WDOLD /D ULSUHVD
DFFHQQDWD D LQL]LR KD WURYDWR FRQIHUPD FRQ L GDWL ULOHYDWL QHO SULPR VHPHVWUH
GDOO·LQGDJLQH 9HQHWR&RQJLXQWXUD OD TXDOH FRQIHUPD OD VROLGLWj GHOO·LQGXVWULD
YLFHQWLQDFKHVLqULSRUWDWDDLOLYHOOLSURGXWWLYLGHODQQRGLSURGX]LRQHPDVVLPD
H FKH VWD SURFHGHQGR FRQ XQD FUHVFLWD SDUL D TXHOOD UHJLVWUDWD QHL SULPL DQQL GHO ;;,
VHFROR
28
'L VHJXLWR YLHQH LOOXVWUDWD OD GLQDPLFD GL HYROX]LRQH GHL OLYHOOL SURGXWWLYL WUDPLWH OH
YDULD]LRQLFRQJLXQWXUDOL
3URGX]LRQH9DULD]LRQLFRQJLXQWXUDOLFDOFRODWHVXLQGLFLGHVWDJLRQDOL]]DWLGL9LFHQ]D9HQHWRH,WDOLD
9LFHQ]D
9HQHWR
,WDOLD
,,,
,,,
,,,
,,,
,,,
,,,
)RQWHHODERUD]LRQHVXGDWL9HQHWR&RQJLXQWXUDH,VWDW
,,,
,,,
,,,
,,,
,,,
'DTXHVWRJUDILFRSLFKHGDOSUHFHGHQWHVLGHQRWDXQD´DFFHOHUD]LRQHµPDJJLRUHGD
SDUWH GHOO·LQGXVWULD YLFHQWLQD ULVSHWWR DOOH UHVWDQWL DUHH HVDPLQDWH QRQRVWDQWH LO
UHFRUGQHJDWLYRUHJLVWUDWRDLQL]LR
29
)DWWXUDWRWRWDOH
,O VHFRQGR LQGLFH DQDOL]]DWR H GHVWDJLRQDOL]]DWR q TXHOOR GHO IDWWXUDWR WRWDOH GHOOH
LPSUHVHRYYHURTXHOORFKHQRQIDGLVWLQ]LRQLWUDODPHUFHYHQGXWHDOO·LQWHUQRRIXRUL
GDOWHUULWRULRLWDOLDQR
Information on Models
Series Span (n°of obs.)
Model Span (n°of obs.)
Method
PRE-ADJUSTMENT
Transformation
Mean Correction
Correction for Trading Day Effects
Correction for Easter Effects
Correction for Outliers
Critical t-value
Corr. for Missing Obs.
Corr. for Other Regr. Effects
Specif. Of the ARIMA model
Non-seas. MA (lag 1) value
Non-seas. MA (lag 1) t-value
Seasonal MA (lag 4) value
Seasonal MA (lag 4) t-value
Method of Estimation
DECOMPOSITION
Arima decomposition
Seasonality
Information on Diagnostics
SA quality index (stand. to 10)
STATISTICS ON RESIDUALS
Ljung-Box on residuals
Box-Pierce on residuals
Ljung-Box on squared residuals
Box-Pierce on squared residuals
DESCRIPTION OF RESIDUALS
Normality
Skewness
Kurtosis
OUTLIERS
Percentage of outliers
Q4.1999 – Q2.2011 (47)
Q4.1999 – Q2.2011 (47)
Tramo/Seats
Logarithm
None
None
None
Autom.:AO,LS,TC
3.000
None
None
(1 1 0)(0 1 1) (fixed)
-0.5338
-3.77 [-2.009, 2.009] 5%
-0.9202
-15.24 [-2.009, 2.009] 5%
Exact Maximum Likelihood
Exact
Seasonal model used
2.100 [0, 10] ad-hoc
4.58 [0, 18.30] 5%
0.04 [0, 5.99] 5%
7.62 [0, 18.30] 5%
1.27 [0, 5.99] 5%
4.24 [0, 5.99] 5%
-0.65 [-0.74, 0.74] 5%
3.86 [1.52, 4.48] 5%
0.00% [0%, 5.0%] ad-hoc
30
'DOPRGHOORHODERUDWRHGDOODVHULHJUH]]DHVWUDSRODWDGDOO·LQGDJLQHVLqFUHDWR
LOVHJXHQWHJUDILFR
)DWWXUDWRWRWDOH,QGLFHJUH]]RHGHVWDJLRQDOL]]DWRSHU9LFHQ]D
*UH]]D
'HVWDJLRQDOL]]DWD
,,,
,,,
,,,
,,,
,,,
,,,
,,,
,,,
,,,
,,,
)RQWHHODERUD]LRQHVXGDWL9HQHWR&RQJLXQWXUD
,,,
$ GLIIHUHQ]D GHOOD VHULH GHOOD SURGX]LRQH SHU LO IDWWXUDWR WRWDOH QRQ VL q ULWHQXWR
QHFHVVDULR O·XWLOL]]R GL RXWOLHUVHGLQROWUHLOPRGHOOR$5,0$XWLOL]]DWRqGLIIHUHQWHGD
TXHOORSUHFHGHQWHPHQWHHODERUDWRLQIDWWLQRQVLWUDWWDGLXQPRGHOOR$LUOLQHPDGLXQ
PRGHOOR4XLQRQVLVRQRUHJLVWUDWHDQRPDOLHQHLWHVWVWDWLVWLFL
31
'DOULVXOWDWRGL'HPHWUDSRVVRFRQGXUUHLOFRQIURQWRFRQOHDOWUHUHDOWjWHUULWRULDOL
)DWWXUDWR7RWDOH,QGLFLGHVWDJLRQDOL]]DWLGHOIDWWXUDWRWRWDOHSHU9LFHQ]D9HQHWRH,WDOLD
9LFHQ]D
9HQHWR
,WDOLD
,,,
,,,
,,,
,,,
,,,
,,,
)RQWHHODERUD]LRQHVXGDWL9HQHWR&RQJLXQWXUDH,VWDW
,,,
,,,
,,,
,,,
,,,
'LYHUVDPHQWH GDO JUDILFR GHOOD SURGX]LRQH LQGXVWULDOH TXL VL YHULILFD XQD FHUWD
VRPLJOLDQ]D WUD OD VHULH YHQHWD H TXHOOD EHULFD , OLYHOOL GL IDWWXUDWR SHUz VL VWDQQR
GLIIHUHQ]LDQGRQHOO·DUFRGHOSULPRVHPHVWUHQHOTXDOHOHD]LHQGHYLFHQWLQHKDQQR
UHJLVWUDWR XQD FUHVFLWD PDJJLRUH ULVSHWWR D TXHOOD GHOOD VXD UHJLRQH UDJJLXQJHQGR H
VXSHUDQGRFRVuLOLYHOOLUHJLVWUDWLDGLQL]LR,QYHFHSHUO·LQGLFHLWDOLDQRODVWDELOLWj
UHJLVWUDWD SHU OD SURGX]LRQH YDOH HVFOXVLYDPHQWH SHU LO SHULRGR SUHFHGHQWH DO SRLFKp GD TXHOO·DQQR q VHJXLWD XQD OHJJHUD FUHVFLWD FUROODWD VXFFHVVLYDPHQWH QHO
VHFRQGRVHPHVWUH
32
3HU XQ·DQDOLVL SL DSSURIRQGLWD YLHQH GL VHJXLWR LOOXVWUDWD OD GLQDPLFD GHOOH YDULD]LRQL
VXELWHGDOO·LQGLFHGHOIDWWXUDWRWRWDOH
)DWWXUDWR7RWDOH9DULD]LRQLFRQJLXQWXUDOLFDOFRODWHVXLQGLFLGHVWDJLRQDOL]]DWLGL9LFHQ]D9HQHWRH,WDOLD
9LFHQ]D
9HQHWR
,WDOLD
,,,
,,,
,,,
,,,
,,,
,,,
,,,
,,,
,,,
)RQWHHODERUD]LRQHVXGDWL9HQHWR&RQJLXQWXUDH,VWDW
,,,
,,,
'D TXHVWR JUDILFR VL SXz PHJOLR YHULILFDUH FKH L SULPL DQQL GHO QXRYR PLOOHQQLR VRQR
VWDWLPDJJLRUPHQWHSRVLWLYLSHUO·LQGXVWULDYLFHQWLQDFRVDFKHQRQHUDYLVLELOHWUDPLWH
LOSUHFHGHQWHJUDILFR
,QROWUHVLSXzIDUHXQDFRQVLGHUD]LRQHVHSHUODSURGX]LRQHLOUHFRUGQHJDWLYRqVWDWR
UHJLVWUDWR SHU 9LFHQ]D OR VWHVVR QRQ DFFDGH SHU LO IDWWXUDWR LO TXDOH VHJQD OD VXD
SHJJLRU SHUIRUPDQFH QHOO·LQGXVWULD LWDOLDQD &Lz GHY·HVVHUH GRYXWR DOOD
FUHVFLWD GHL SUH]]L GL YHQGLWD R GDOOD SRVVLELOH JLDFHQ]D GHL SURGRWWL QHOOH LQGXVWULH
GHOODSURYLQFLDYHQHWDFRVDFKHQRQVLqYHULILFDWDQHOUHVWRG·,WDOLD
33
)DWWXUDWRHVWHUR
/·XOWLPR LQGLFH HFRQRPLFR DQDOL]]DWR q TXHOOR UHODWLYR DO IDWWXUDWR HVWHUR LO TXDOH VL
ULIHULVFH DOOD PHUFH YHQGXWD D GL IXRUL GHL FRQILQL GL VWDWR 3XUWURSSR TXHVWD VHULH
FRPLQFLDQHOSRLFKpSULPDGLWDOHGDWDQRQHUDFRQVLGHUDWDQHOO·LQGDJLQH
Information on Models
Series Span (n°of obs.)
Model Span (n°of obs.)
Method
PRE-ADJUSTMENT
Transformation
Mean Correction
Correction for Trading Day Effects
Correction for Easter Effects
Correction for Outliers
Critical t-value
Corr. for Missing Obs.
Corr. for Other Regr. Effects
Specif. Of the ARIMA model
Non-seas. MA (lag 1) value
Non-seas. MA (lag 1) t-value
Seasonal MA (lag 4) value
Seasonal MA (lag 4) t-value
Method of Estimation
DECOMPOSITION
Arima decomposition
Seasonality
Information on Diagnostics
SA quality index (stand. to 10)
STATISTICS ON RESIDUALS
Ljung-Box on residuals
Box-Pierce on residuals
Ljung-Box on squared residuals
Box-Pierce on squared residuals
DESCRIPTION OF RESIDUALS
Normality
Skewness
Kurtosis
OUTLIERS
Percentage of outliers
Q4.2003 – Q2.2011 (31)
Q4.2003 – Q2.2011 (31)
Tramo/Seats
None
None
None
None
Autom.:AO,LS,TC
3.000
None
None
(0 1 1)(0 1 1) (fixed)
0.5223
2.48 [-2.021, 2.021] 5%
-0.6607
-2.81 [-2.021, 2.021] 5%
Exact Maximum Likelihood
Exact
Seasonal model used
2.355 [0, 10] ad-hoc
10.68 [0, 18.30] 5%
2.76 [0, 5.99] 5%
10.17 [0, 18.30] 5%
2.11 [0, 5.99] 5%
2.90 [0, 5.99] 5%
-0.80 [-0.94, 0.94] 5%
3.35 [1.12, 4.88] 5%
0.00% [0%, 5.0%] ad-hoc
34
&RPHSHUOHVHULHSUHFHGHQWHPHQWHDQDOL]]DWHVLqFRVWUXLWRLOJUDILFRFRQLGDWLJUH]]L
HGHVWDJLRQDOL]]DWL
)DWWXUDWRHVWHUR,QGLFHJUH]]RHGHVWDJLRQDOL]]DWRVX9LFHQ]D
*UH]]D
'HVWDJLRQDOL]]DWD
,,
,,,
,9
,,
,,,
,9
,,
,,,
,9
,,
,,,
,9
,,
,,,
,9
,,
)RQWHHODERUD]LRQHVXGDWL9HQHWR&RQJLXQWXUD
,,,
,9
,,
,,,
,9
,,
$QFKH TXL FRPH SHU OD SURGX]LRQH LQGXVWULDOH LO SURJUDPPD KD WURYDWR XQ PRGHOOR
$5,0$FRQVWDJLRQDOLWjGLWLSR$LUOLQH61RQqVWDWRQHFHVVDULRO·DXVLOLRGL
RXWOLHUHWXWWLLWHVWVWDWLVWLFLVRQRVWDWLVXSHUDWLSRVLWLYDPHQWH
35
&RPH SHU JOL DOWUL LQGLFL RUD VL SURFHGH DO FRQIURQWR FRQ OD UHJLRQH 9HQHWR H LO
WHUULWRULRLWDOLDQR
)DWWXUDWR(VWHUR,QGLFLGHVWDJLRQDOL]]DWLGHOIDWWXUDWRHVWHURSHU9LFHQ]D9HQHWRH,WDOLD
9LFHQ]D
9HQHWR
,WDOLD
,,
,,,
,9
,,
,,,
,9
,,
,,,
,9
,,
,,,
)RQWHHODERUD]LRQHVXGDWL9HQHWR&RQJLXQWXUDH,VWDW
,9
,,
,,,
,9
,,
,,,
,9
,,
,,,
,9
,,
'DO JUDILFR VL GHQRWD OD SUHURJDWLYD GHOOH D]LHQGH YHQHWH SHU O·H[SRUW OH TXDOL VRQR
WUDLQDWHGDOODIRUWHFUHVFLWDQHOOHSURYLQFHGL9HURQD7UHYLVRH%HOOXQRPHQWUHqXQD
UHDOWjJLjFRQVROLGDWDQHOWHUULWRULREHULFRLOTXDOHVLPXRYHSDUDOOHODPHQWHULVSHWWRDO
WHUULWRULRUHJLRQDOH'RSRODFULVLHORVWDOORGHOO·H[SRUWYLFHQWLQRKDUHFXSHUDWR
QHOFRUVRGHJOLXOWLPLGXHDQQLLOJDSFKHORVHSDUDYDGDLYDORULGHOVXSHUDQGROR
GLFLUFDSXQWL
36
3HUFRQIHUPDVXTXDQWRVFULWWRSUHFHGHQWHPHQWHRUDVLYLVLRQDLOJUDILFRUHODWLYRDOOH
YDULD]LRQLFRQJLXQWXUDOL
)DWWXUDWR(VWHUR9DULD]LRQLFRQJLXQWXUDOLFDOFRODWHVXLQGLFLGHVWDJLRQDOL]]DWLGL9LFHQ]D9HQHWRH,WDOLD
9LFHQ]D
9HQHWR
,WDOLD
,,
,,,
,9
,,
,,,
,9
,,
,,,
,9
,,
,,,
,9
,,
,,,
,9
,,
,,,
,9
)RQWHHODERUD]LRQHVXGDWL9HQHWR&RQJLXQWXUDH,VWDW
,,
,,,
,9
,,
/H YDULD]LRQL GHO IDWWXUDWR HVWHUR SHU OD SURYLQFLD EHULFD VRQR VRVWDQ]LDOPHQWH VWDELOL
LQWRUQR DO SHU FHQWR D SDUWH TXDOFKH HFFH]LRQH DG LQL]LR VHFROR H QHO SHULRGR GL
FULVL ,O 9HQHWR VHJXH OD GLQDPLFD YLFHQWLQD PHQWUH DQFKH O·,WDOLD GHQRWD OD VXD
VSLFFDWD SUHURJDWLYD DO FRPPHUFLR HVWHUR VHJQDQGR ULVXOWDWLPLJOLRULULVSHWWRDTXHOOL
UHJLVWUDWLQHOIDWWXUDWRWRWDOH
2OWUHDLWUHLQGLFLGHVWDJLRQDOL]]DWLLQSUHFHGHQ]DVRQRVWDWHHODERUDWHDQFKHOHVHULH
ULJXDUGDQWL JOL LQGLFL GHJOL RUGLQDWLYL LQWHUQLHVWHUL H O·RFFXSD]LRQH TXHVWH SHUz QRQ
YHUUDQQRSUHVHQWDWHSRLFKpQRQSUHVHQWDQRVWDJLRQDOLWj&LzqVWDWRULOHYDWRDOODVROD
YLVLRQH GHOOH VHULH LQ IRUPD JUDILFD SRL FRPSURYDWD GDO SURJUDPPD 'HPHWUD FKH QH
KDULFDYDWRGHLPRGHOOL$5,0$VHQ]DVWDJLRQDOLWj$WDOSXQWRVLVRQRDQDOL]]DWHOHVHULH
JUH]]HFRQIURQWDQGROHFRQOHVHULHGHVWDJLRQDOL]]DWHGL9HQHWRH,WDOLD
37
1RWHPHWRGRORJLFKH
/D GHVWDJLRQDOL]]D]LRQH q VWDWD DSSOLFDWD FRQ O·XWLOL]]R GL 75$02 6($76 SHU OH VHULH
GHO 9HQHWR H GL 9LFHQ]D LO PHGHVLPR XWLOL]]DWRGDOO·,VWDWSHULVXRLVWXGL(VLVWHSHUz
XQD GLIIHUHQ]D WUD OD GHVWDJLRQDOL]]D]LRQH ,VWDW H TXHOOD GHOOD &DPHUD GL &RPPHUFLR
LQIDWWL L SULPL GHVWDJLRQDOL]]DQR OD VHULH FRQ IUHTXHQ]D PHQVLOH XWLOL]]DQGR OD
FRUUH]LRQHSHUIHVWLYLWjHJLRUQLODYRUDWLYLRWWHQHQGRXQ·DQDOLVLPROWRDFFXUDWDHSHU
RWWHQHUHODVHULHWULPHVWUDOHFDOFRODODPHGLDGHLWUHPHVLRWWHQHQGRDSSXQWRLOGDWR
VXOWULPHVWUH9HQHWRH9LFHQ]DFKHQRQGLVSRQJRQRGLGDWLPHQVLOLPDVRODPHQWHGL
GDWL WULPHVWUDOL DSSOLFD OD GHVWDJLRQDOL]]D]LRQH VHQ]D O·XWLOL]]R GHOOD FRUUH]LRQH SHU
JLRUQL ODYRUDWLYL H IHVWLYLWj SRLFKp QHOO·DUFR GL WUH PHVL TXHVWL HOHPHQWL SHVDQR LQ
PDQLHUDPROWROLHYHVXOO·DQDOLVLFKHVLYDDGDSSOLFDUH4XHOFKHQHFRQVHJXHTXLQGLq
LO IDWWR FKH OD VHULH ,WDOLDQD q VWDWD DQDOL]]DWD LQ PDQLHUD SL VSHFLILFD ULVSHWWR DOOH
DOWUHGXHQRQRVWDQWHOHGXHVHULHVLDQRVFRPSRVWHLQPDQLHUDHVDWWDGDOVRIWZDUH
38
%LEOLRJUDILD
7HVWL
o 5HPR )ULFDQR ´/H &DPHUH GL &RPPHUFLRVWRULDRUGLQDPHQWRHFRPSHWHQ]Hµ
0DJJLROL(GLWRUH
'RFXPHQWL
o 9LFWRU*RPH]$XJXVWLQ0DUDYDOO´'HPHWUDXVHUPDQXDOµ
(XURVWDW´'HPHWUD3HGDJRJLFDO0DQXDOµ
o /HJJH ´5LRUGLQDPHQWR GHOOH FDPHUH GL FRPPHUFLR LQGXVWULD
DUWLJLDQDWRHDJULFROWXUDµ
o '/JV´5LIRUPDGHOO·RUGLQDPHQWRUHODWLYRDOOHFDPHUHGLFRPPHUFLR
LQGXVWULDDUWLJLDQDWRHDJULFROWXUDLQDWWXD]LRQHGHOO·DUWLFRORGHOODOHJJH
OXJOLRQµ
6LWLLQWHUQHW
o ZZZYLFDPFRPLW
o ZZZXQLRQFDPHUHJRYLW
o ZZZLVWDWLW
39
5LQJUD]LDPHQWL
8QULQJUD]LDPHQWRVSHFLDOHYDDOPLRUHODWRUHLO3URI)UDQFHVFR/LVLSHUHVVHUHVWDWR
VHPSUHGLVSRQLELOHDQFKHLQWHPSLULVWUHWWLHSHULOVXSSRUWRGDWRPLQHOODUHGD]LRQH
GLTXHVWDWHVL,QROWUHYDULQJUD]LDWRLOPLRWXWRUD]LHQGDOHLO'RWW'LHJR5HEHVFRGDO
TXDOHKRLPSDUDWRPROWRHJOLVDUzVHPSUHULFRQRVFHQWHSHUTXHVWR,QTXHLVHLPHVLGL
VWDJH KR DYXWR PRGR GL UHOD]LRQDUPL FRQ SHUVRQH JHQWLOL H VHPSUH GLVSRQLELOL DG
DLXWDUPL TXLQGL ULQJUD]LR DQFKH &DUOD (OLVDEHWWD *LJL H 6WHIDQR 1RQ SRWUHL
GLPHQWLFDUHLOPLRSULPRODYRURDO&HQWUR6WXGLGL8QLRQFDPHUHGHO9HQHWRFROTXDOH
KRDYXWRPRGRGLDIIURQWDUHOHWHPDWLFKHGHOODWHVLHJUD]LHDOTXDOHVRQRFUHVFLXWRLQ
DPELWR ODYRUDWLYR TXLQGL XQ JUD]LH DG $OHVVDQGUD $QWRQHOOD )UDQFHVFR *LRYDQQD H
6HUDILQRSHULEXRQLLQVHJQDPHQWL,PLHLH[FROOHJKLGLXIILFLR*LDFRPRH5REHUWDSHU
DYHUPL WROOHUDWR &RPH QRQ FLWDUH JOL DPLFL GHOO·(XURVSRUWHOOR FKH PL KDQQR DFFROWR
VHEEHQH IRVVL LQ ´WHUUD VWUDQLHUDµ $OHVVDQGUD $OHVVDQGUR %UXQHOOD 'DQLHOD
)UDQFHVFR6DPXHOH6DUDH6WHIDQLD
8QJUDQGHJUD]LHYDFHUWDPHQWHDLPLHLJHQLWRULFKHPLKDQQRVRSSRUWDWRHVSURQDWRD
WHUPLQDUHTXHVWDPLDHVSHULHQ]DXQLYHUVLWDULDVHQ]DGLORURQRQVDUHLPDLULXVFLWRDG
DUULYDUH D TXL TXLQGL VR FKH TXHO WLWROR GL GRWWRUH OR GHYR LQ JUDQ SDUWH D ORUR 0LR
IUDWHOOR*DEULHOHFKHqVHPSUHVWDWRHVHPSUHVDUjLOPLRSXQWRGLULIHULPHQWRVRQR
IRUWXQDWRDGDYHUHXQIUDWHOORPHUDYLJOLRVRFRPHOXL
3RL FL VRQR L PLHL FRPSDJQL GL XQLYHUVLWj FKH PL KDQQR DFFRPSDJQDWR LQ TXHVWD
DYYHQWXUDHFKHPLKDQQRUHVRLOVHQWLHURSLIDFLOHPDDQFKHSLGLIILFLOHDYROWH
XQJUD]LHVSHFLDOHYDFHUWDPHQWHD6DUDH9DOHQWLQDSHULOSULPRDQQRSDVVDWRLQVLHPH
H SHU L UHVWDQWL DQQL FL VRQR $QQD $QGUHD &KLDUD (QULFR ,UHQH -HQQ\ 1LFROD *
1LFROD61LFFROz5LFFDUGRH9HURQLFDVSHURGLQRQDYHUGLPHQWLFDWRQHVVXQR
3HUXOWLPDPDFHUWDPHQWHODSLLPSRUWDQWHODPLDILGDQ]DWD,ODULDFKHqULXVFLWDDG
DLXWDUPLLQTXDOVLDVLPRPHQWRGLGLIILFROWjVHEEHQHODGLVWDQ]DORUHQGHVVHGLIILFLOH
3HU XOWLPD PD FHUWDPHQWH OD SL LPSRUWDQWH OD PLD ILGDQ]DWD ,ODULD VHQ]D LO TXDOH
QRQDYUHLUDJJLXQWRTXHVWRRELHWWLYRJUD]LHSHUDYHUPLDLXWDWRVHEEHQHODGLVWDQ]DOR
UHQGHVVH GLIILFLOH JUD]LH SHU DYHUPL VRVWHQXWR DQFKH QHL PLHL IDOOLPHQWL H JUD]LH SHU
HVVHUPLDFFDQWRDQFKHLQTXHVWRPRPHQWRGLJLRLD
40
Scarica

Documento PDF