Hybrid regimes
GLI ESITI DELLE DEMOCRATIZZAZIONI
Temi e questioni
• Successi, successi parziali, fallimenti
• Regimi di transizione o ibridi ?
• Il ruolo delle eredità
- i conflitti tra Stato e nazione
- il partito unico e la mobilitazione di massa
- Le élites
• L’apprendimento politico
research questions
• Is there the possibility of singling out a
new kind of political arrangements
between authoritarianisms and
democracies?
• If so, is this only a transitional situation, as
we could expect, or could it be a regime?
Short excursus on the history of concept
• Linz, the case of Spain after WWII
• COCTA
• Recent developments
main empirical findings
• There is such a regime, even with stable
patterns, but it is difficult to define adequately;
• It is also difficult to find a satisfactory
classification
• However, the main model is the “quasidemocracy”, that is a multi dimensional
configurations where all main components don’t
achieve the minimalist characteristics to have a
democracy.
Empirical size of the phenomenon
58 countries (30% of the world’s total) are
ranked by Freedom House as “partially
free”
Outline of the presentation
• What is a regime
• Definition of hybrid regime between
democracy and authoritarianism
• Typologies
• Empirical results
What is a regime
• regimes ‘are more permanent forms of
political organization’ (Fishman 1990, 428)
• the set of government institutions and of
norms that are either formalized or are
informally recognized as existing in a
given territory and with respect to a given
population.
• a regime has a minimal persistence/
stabilization
Minimalist definition of democracy
•
•
•
•
Free, fair, competitive, recurrent elections
More than one party
Universal suffrage
Alternative sources of information
• Plus the two footnotes by Schmitter:
– decision-making process should not be constrained
by non-elected elites
– and by external powers.
Authoritarianism I: Linz
– limited pluralism,
– low mobilization/controlled participation
– mentalities
– small leading group or leader
– uncertainty about rules, but predictable ones
Authoritarianism II -Schedler
• elections are inclusive, minimally pluralistic and
competitive (opposition parties allowed to run),
minimally open (opposition parties not subject to
massive repression)
• but instruments of authoritarian rule:
– as there are infringements of political rights and civil
liberties, restriction of candidate’s access to mass
media and campaign finance, imposition of formal or
informal suffrage restrictions on their supporters, or
simply redistributing votes and seats through electoral
fraud.
Hybrid Regimes: proliferation of notions
• façade democracy (Finer 1970)
• democradura/dictablanda (Rouquié 1975)
• pseudo democracy (Finer 1970,Diamond, Linz, Lipset
1995)
• the semi-consolidated democracies (Freedom House);
• illiberal democracy (Zakaria 1997),
• electoral democracy (Diamond 1999),
• defective democracies (Merkel and Croissant 2001),
• competitive authoritarianism (Levitsky and Way 2002),
• semi-authoritarianism (Ottaway 2003)
• partial democracy (Epstein et al. 2006)
• autocratic electoral regime (Wigell 2008)
hybrid regime
•
•
•
•
•
•
•
Karl (1990, 1995)
Diamond (2002)
Morlino (2008)
Wigell (2008)
Smolka Vida (2010)
Hale (in Brown 2011)
Linz & Stepan (2013)
Hybrid Regimes: a definition
- a set of rules and institutions where
some authoritarian characteristics either
disappeared or are seriously undermined
and only some requisites are present
among those requested by the minimal
definition of democracy
- or no longer minimally democratic and
presence of some requisites of
authoritarianism
Regime ibrido II
• Un insieme di istituzioni, non importa se stabili o
no, persistenti per almeno un decennio, …
• che sono state precedute da un autoritarismo,
da un regime tradizionale (magari con
caratteristiche coloniali), o anche da una
democrazia minima ….
• e sono caratterizzate dallo smantellamento del
pluralismo limitato e da forme di partecipazione
indipendenti, autonoma oltre che dall’assenza di
alemno uno dei quattro aspetti di una
democrazia minina.
pag. 64
Direzioni di analisi
1) Il lascito del regime precedente
2) Il processo di cambiamento e le sue
conseguenze
3) Le caratteristiche distintive dei regimi
ibridi
4) Le limitazioni che hanno impedito
l’evoluzione verso una democrazia
minima (pag. 68)
What kind of hybrid regime?
___________________________________________________________________________
traditional/personal regimes
military authoritarianisms
protected democracy
civil-military authoritarianisms
mobilization authoritarianisms
limited democracy
post-colonial regimes
democracy without law
liberal democracies
____________________________________________________________________________
typology
• Protected democracy
• Limited democracy
• Democracy without State (law)
Significant dimensions in hybrid regimes
1.Rule of law
2.Electoral process
3.Functioning of government
4.Political pluralism and
participation
5. Freedom of expression
6. Freedom of association
and organization
7. Autonomy and individual
freedom
Democracy without law:1,2,3
Protected democracy: 4
Limited democracy:5, 6, 7
The Three Components of Hybrid Regimes
variable
Rule of law
Electoral process
Government functioning
Pluralism and participation
Freedom of expression & beliefs
Freedom of association & organization
Personal autonomy and individual freedom
Components
1
2
.856
.835
3
.818
.862
.713
.865
Notes: Percentage of explained variance: 80.623%;
Method of Extraction: Principal Component Analysis;
Method of rotation: Varimax with Kaiser normalization
Only factor loadings > 0.5 represented.
.858
Typology fo hybrid regimes
categories
countries
Quasi- democracies
Albania
Bosnia Herzegovina
Colombia
Georgia
Macedonia
Madagascar
Malaysia
Moldova
Mozambique
Seychelles
Singapore
Sri Lanka
Tanzania
Turkey
Zambia
Limited democracies
Bangladesh
Comoros
Fiji
Guatemala
Guinea-Bissau
Jordan
Nicaragua
Paraguay
Sierra Leone
Tonga
Democracies without state
Armenia
Burkina Faso
Central African Rep.
Ethiopia
Gabon
Kuwait
Morocco
Nepal
Nigeria
Uganda
Alternative typology (Linz & Stepan 2013)
•
•
•
•
Authoritarian/democratic hybrid
Democratic/authoritarian hybrid
Traditional/democratic hybrid
Sultanistic/democratic hybrid
• More specific:
– Military/democratic hybrid
– ……..