Sardinian Economic System
Cagliari, 27 giugno 2011
Geography of water
2011 summer school
Outline
•
Sardinian economic system
•
•
Competitive factors
Environment and tourism: a challenge for the future
•
Concluding remarks
Sardinia in EUrope
PIL pro-capite regionale in
parità dei poteri d’acquisto
media EU27=100, anno 1998
Fonte: Eurostat
XVIII Rapporto CRENoS, Cagliari, 27 maggio 2011
Sardinia in EUrope
PIL pro capite regionale in parità
dei poteri d’acquisto
media EU27=100, anno 2008
XVIII Rapporto CRENoS, Cagliari, 27 maggio 2011
Some comparisons
Fonte: Eurostat
DATI:
• Confronti UE: dati Eurostat 1998-2008
(UE27=100)
Sardinia and Mezzogiorno are moving
away from the EU average
The after crisis dynamics is at a dual
speed:
Tasso di crescita
1995
del PIL2007
Previsioni
Eurostat
Irlanda
121
147
2010
2011
Germania
122
116
Italia
1,3
1,0
Francia
115
108
Germania
3,6
2,6
Spagna
95
105
Francia
1,6
1,8
Grecia
83
92
Irlanda
-1,0
0,6
Slovenia
79
88
Spagna
-0,1
0,8
Estonia
42
69
Slovacchia
4,0
3,5
Ungheria
55
62
Lituania
1,3
5,0
Slovacchia
52
68
Polonia
3,8
4,0
Lituania
40
59
Svezia
5,5
4,2
Polonia
48
54
Finlandia
3,1
3,7
Italia
120
104
Sardegna
89
78
XVIII Rapporto CRENoS, Cagliari, 27 maggio 2011
2008
133
2012
116
1,3
107
1,9
103
2,0
94
1,9
91
1,5
68
4,4
64
4,7
72
3,7
61
2,5
56
2,6
104
79
The dynamics of the GDP per capita
Fonte: elaborazione Conti Economici Territoriali Istat
•
Sardinian GDP in 2009 is 33
billion 450 millions euro.
•
The reduction of GDP per capita
in real term for 2008-2009 has
taken back Sardinia to the 2002
values.
•
•
Mezzogiorno perfermed even
worse, in spite of the presence
of a strong quota of Public
Sector, which usually weaken
crisis impacts.
Recession has been stronger in
centre north of Italy because of
its international exposure
- 0,82
- 3,9
XVIII Rapporto CRENoS, Cagliari, 27 maggio 2011
International trade
Fonte: elaborazioni su dati Istat-Coeweb
• Exports have increased in 2009 (especially because of oil)
• Quota of export over GDP: 9,8%:
– Greater than in Mezzogiorno
– But for ¾ is made of petrochemicals
• Other sectors have quite marginal quota (especially by-products of the
agriculture sector)
var
09- 10
v.m.a.
06-10
Quota
media 06-10
169,5
-4,0
1,62
Alimentari, bevande e tabacco
-4,2
-1,4
2,74
Prodotti petroliferi
77,1
11,3
74,54
Sostanze e prodotti chimici
13,8
-10,9
9,83
Prodotti in metallo
-17,2
15,4
5,70
Macchine e apparecchi meccanici
-38,0
25,6
1,64
-120,4
2,8
1,28
ATTIVITA’ ECONOMICA
Estrazione minerali
Mezzi di trasporto
XVIII Rapporto CRENoS, Cagliari, 27 maggio 2011
The production structure
Quote %
Sardegna
Agricoltura e pesca
Industria in senso stretto
Costruzioni
Servizi
Mezzogiorno
Agricoltura e pesca
Industria in senso stretto
Costruzioni
Servizi
Centro-Nord
Agricoltura e pesca
Industria in senso stretto
Costruzioni
Servizi
Italia
Agricoltura e pesca
Industria in senso stretto
Costruzioni
Servizi
3,6
13,2
6,2
77,0
4,2
14,0
6,2
75,6
2,0
23,6
5,2
69,1
2,5
21,4
5,4
70,6
But what about the future?
Fattori di crescita e sviluppo
Are we working on our potential in order to have a better growth
in the medium-long period?
•
Three pillars for growth:
• Material infrastructure (trasporti, telecomunicazioni, reti
energetiche, servizi idrici, ambientali)
• Technological change
• Human capital
Material infrastructure
Strade
2007
2001
Sanità
Ferrovie
9 indicators: Italy=100
Persistent gap of Sardinia for
all the indicators
Istruzione
Porti
Cult. e ricreat.
Reti banc. e serv. vari
Sardegna
Aeroporti
Reti energ. amb.
Mezzogiorno
Italia
-
road: 45,6
train: 15,0
ports:
airports:
education:
health:
119,8
84,8
53,4
55,1
In relative terms the gap has
been reduced in health and
education
Intangible assets
I fattori immateriali
Competition is more and more due to intangible
(immaterial) assets
1/
Europe has the target to become the more competitive
and more dynamics knowledge based area.
Let us see the factors which contribute more to this
aim, their creation and possible policies.
Pag.15
Scientific regions/1
• definition
key concepts for knowledge creation and absorption:
- Human capital;
- R&D activity.
• methodology:
– Ranking of regions with respect to EU average.
Pag.17
Scientific regions/2
Pag.18
Indicators
Identificazione degli indicatori
Human capital:
• Quota of population with tertiary education
• Quota of population in the education sector
• Funds per capita thanks to 5FP
R&D activity:
• R&D expenditure per capita
• Quota of employment in the R&D sector
• Patents per capita
• High-tech patents per capita
Pag.19
.6
Research activity
NL41
DE21
.4
Research
Intensive
regions
DK01
DE11
SE11
Scientific
regions
FI18
CH03
FI1A
DE12
DE25
DE14
DE91
SE22
AT13
FI19
UKH1
FR10
.2
DE26
DE92
CH05
DE13
DEA2
CH06
DEB3
LU00
FR62
AT22
DE60
DE50
FR71
DED2
BE21
CH07
DE72
NL42
RO31
GR42
GR22
CZ04
RO22
RO41
RO21RO11
RO42
RO12
-.2
Pag.29
NO06
SE12
CH01
UKJ1
UKJ3
CH02
UKI1
BE31
DE30
CZ01
UKD2 IS00
UKK1
UKH2
DEA1
AT31 AT33
FR52
UKH3 BE23DK04
UKJ2
DEA4
NO05
DE27
DE24
ES22
NL22 ES30
DE22
AT21
ITD5
FR82
UKM3
ITC1
BE25
FR42
UKF1
NL33NL11SK01
DEA5
ITC4
FR43
AT32 ITE4
DK05
BE22NO03
UKG1
NL32
ES21
ITD4
FR81 DEG0 FI13
IE02
UKL2
UKJ4
SI02UKF2
DEC0
FR72
ES51
UKD4
BE34DED3
UKG3
NO04
BE33 UKE2
BE35
NO07
FR24
DEA3
DEF0
PT17
HU10
SE31
AT12
ITC2
IE01 ITD2DE42
BE32
UKD5
DK03 NL21
SE21
DK02
ITD3 FR23
ITC3
ITE1
DE73
GR21
UKC2
NL23
UKE3UKD3 GR30
DE93
DEB1
RO32 DED1ES24GR43
UKE4
ITE2
DEB2
FR22
FR51
DE80
FR25
FR41
ES41
ES23
FR61
UKN0UKC1
SE32
UKM2
DE94
ITE3FR26DEE0
CZ06 ES52
ES12 GR12
ES11
UKK4
CZ02
ITF3 FR63
ITF1
NL13GR23
PL12
ES13UKD1
UKK2
EE00
UKI2
FR53
ITG1ES62
GR41
FR21
ES61
ITD1FR30
NL34 NO02 UKL1
AT11
ITF4CZ08
CZ05
GR11
HU33 MT00
ITF5
SI01
NL12DE41
BG41
UKE1 LT00 UKG2
CZ07
CZ03
ITF2
PT11
PT16
ES43
ES42
PL41
HU23
HU32
PL21 ES70
LV00UKF3
FI20
PT18
PL63
PL51 GR14
CY00
GR25
PL61
SK02SK03
PT20
HU21HU22
PL42
HU31
SK04
PL22
PT15
ES53
FR83
ITF6 PT30
PL31
PL11
UKK3ES64
GR24
PL52 PL32BG33
BG32
PL34
PL62
PL43 GR13 ES63
BG42
PL33BG34
BG31
Regions with
other
specialisations
than R&D Sardegna
-.2
0
AT34
NO01
UKM5
SE23
DE71
DE23
CH04
BE24
SE33
NL31
Human capital
Human capital
intensive regions
0
.2
BE10
UKM6
.4
Preliminary conclusions
Conclusioni 1
• In the last two decades Sardinian economy has been falling
behind (likewise the Italian one)
• Our competitiveness is based on a model which is biased
towards a mix of heavy industries and public administration
• The labour market is characterised by usual problems of
Mezzogiorno, high young and women unemployment
• Recently the performance of the women labour forse has been
very positive.
• For the future we still have a very heavy gap in infrastructures,
despite quite relevant public funds in the past.
• The gap is even more dramatic when we refer to human capital
and technological change.
In search of good news
Conclusioni 2
• Tourism has had a very good performance in
the last decade
• It is a sector which, despite some critical
aspects, is able to compete in the international
market, with some important excellencies
• Most importantly, in 2009, the annus horribilis
for the whole world tourism, Sardinian market
has show some remarkable resilient feature.
L’andamento del settore turistico
• La crisi mondiale ha avuto un forte impatto anche sul turismo,
determinando nel 2009 una riduzione del 4% del numero di arrivi
internazionali nonostante una prima ripresa nell’ultimo trimestre
Tra le principali destinazioni mondiali hanno mantenuto le posizioni solo
la Turchia (+1,6%) e l’Italia (+0,4%); quest’ultima dopo un 2008
molto negativo
• Nostre fonti per l’analisi del settore in Sardegna:
– Dati definitivi 2008 ufficiali, ISTAT (Gennaio 2010)
– Dati provvisori 2009, Osservatorio Economico della Sardegna
Touristic demand, 2008
10
8
6
4
2
0
-2
-4
-6
-8
v.m.a.% var.%
04-08 07-08
v.m.a.% var.%
04-08 07-08
v.m.a.% var.%
04-08 07-08
v.m.a.% var.%
04-08 07-08
1E-07
3,50
4,94
1E-07
1,87
1,18
1E-07
2,44
0,80
1E-07
2,31
0,89
9,18
STRANIERI 1E-07
1,34
1E-07
2,06
-6,50
1E-07
3,66
-1,94
1E-07
3,46
-2,51
ITALIANI
Sardegna
Mezzogiorno
ITALIANI
Centro-nord
STRANIERI
Italia
Touristic demand, 2009
0%
-5%
-10%
-15%
-20%
Sardegna
Grecia
Cipro
Portogallo
Malta
Spagna
Special features of the tourist sector
18/12/2015
Pag.35
Key concepts/1
Ambiente e Turismo: alcuni concetti base
• Sustainability: “when an economy is endorsed with natural
resources which are the main attraction for tourist, a
development path is sustainable if it allows such natural
resources to generate as much income today as in the
future”
• implications: environmental sustainability, current and of
long period, must be associated to economic sustainability,
that is the capacity to generate income in the present and in
the future, taking into account tourist preference and their
modification along time (with increasing income)
18/12/2015
Pag.36
Ambiente e Economia
Key concepts/2
• Tourism industry: is a integrated sector which includes
many sub sectors: hospitality, transport, cultural services,
agriculture, constructions, articrafts…., ecc.
• Implications: both the analysis about tourism and the
policies for tourism have to be integrated
18/12/2015
Pag.37
Ambiente e Economia
Specific features of the Sardinian tourism/1
• Natural resources
– Snob and luxury good
• Archeological resources
• Cultural resources…sardinian identity
• Low pression by residents
• High average quality of hospitality sector (thanks to
economies of scale and some multinationals)
• Local environment without crime (at least not as much
as in other areas: organised crime, terrorism)
18/12/2015
Pag.38
Ambiente e Economia
Weaknesses of tourism in Sardinia/1
• High concentration of demand and supply laong the
coast (around 90%)
• High concentration in summer (70% of nights in
june-august)
• Abnormal presence of second houses (7 out of 8
beds are offered by this sub sector, which is usually
informal and unofficial)
• Low attraction of foreign flows (only 30% even
though it is increasing thanks to low cost flights)
18/12/2015
Pag.39
Ambiente e Economia
Weaknesses of tourism in Sardinia/2
• Low average expenditure (30% less than in Veneto)
• Low integration with other sectors and consequently
low diffused impact on the whole economy (high
dispersion effects)
• Low “diffused” quality of the entire production chain,
starting from public services
• Low coordination among different actors of the
tourist industry
18/12/2015
Pag.40
Ambiente e Economia
Weaknesses of tourism in Sardinia
(according to experts)
• Mobility within Sardinia
• Low price/quality ratio
• Real accessibility to resources and attractions
18/12/2015
Pag.41
Ambiente e Economia
Some data on the tourism sector in Sardinia
• 170.000 “official” beds (80.000 in hotels);
• About 12 millions “official” nights;
• 25-30 millions nights in second houses with more
than 700.000 beds in the unofficial market
• Regional value added due to tourism is around 8%
of regional GDP
18/12/2015
Pag.42
Ambiente e Economia
The regional tourist budget: expenditure and V.A.
Tourist expenditure=
60 euro
880.000
= per capita expenditure* (number of beds* utilisation rate)
0,12
Regional value added due to tourist expenditure=
Tourist exp. x internal multiplier x external demultiplier
18/12/2015
Pag.43
1,26
0,69
Tourism and growth
• Is tourism good for growth?
• Empirical evidence says so….especially small
islands specialised in tourism have grown at high
speed
• Sustainability along time is crucial in for a
development path based on tourism: we need to
preserve the quality of the resource….and the
market on its own is not able to provide the right
incentives to economic agents for such a result
18/12/2015
Pag.44
Ambiente e Economia
Regional plan for sustainable tourism: why?
• Public goods and common resources
– (es. free riders, uso eccessivo)
• Negative externalities
– (es. uso eccessivo della risorsa ambientale, danni
reputazionali)
• Positive externalities
– (es. promozione e marketing delle singole aziende,
sistema informativo)
• Coordination failure
– (es. domanda e offerta di beni e servizi locali,
apertura fuori stagione)
Regional plan for sustainable tourism: what for?
To develop an integrated touristic industry
– Of high “diffused” quality
– Based on the attractiveness of its natural and
cultural heritage and richness
– Diversified in space and time
– Based on international demand (which is growing)
– Based on price dynamics which avoid price
competitions of other localities which have
different characteristics, especially in terms of
costs
18/12/2015
Pag.46
Ambiente e Economia
Regional plan for sustainable tourism: how?
• The
PRSTS
defines
the
actions
for
the
public
authority to support choices in favour of a general
objective:
•To increase the quota of tourism over GDP thanks to
solutions of the long lasting problems seen above
• strenghtening the long term competitiveness of the
whole tourist system in Sardinia, respectful of
environment integrity
18/12/2015
Pag.47
Regional plan for sustainable tourism: how?
• Some actions (among many others):
• Subsidies for the riqualification and modernisation of touristis
services
• Subsidies for the creation of a certified products with a
common brand
• Subsidies for the creation and completion of internal production
chain for a better intersectoral integration
• Marketing strategies to sale destination products in all those
markets with high potential and increasing dynamics in terms
of income and potential expenditure for touristic purposes